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Climate Risk Management BC Climate Action Secretariat
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Building British Columbia’s Climate Resilience
Outline
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• Context and background for climate resilience
o What it means
o Why it matters
• Steps being taken to build B.C.’s climate resilience
o Strategic Provincial Climate Risk Assessment
o Climate Change Accountability Act
o Climate Resilience “Readiness” Framework
Government has publicly committed to releasing an Intention Paper on Adapting to Climate Change
Target Launch: June 2019
What is Climate Resilience?
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Climate resilience: The capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses, and systems to thrive and succeed in spite of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and changing climatic conditions. Climate adaptation: Adjustments in social, economic or ecological systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli and their effects Disaster mitigation: measures that eliminate or reduce the impacts and risks of hazards through proactive measures taken before a disaster occurs. GHG mitigation: minimizing greenhouse gas emissions to prevent further changes to climate from taking place in the future.
Why Is Climate Resilience Important?
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• B.C. is experiencing the unavoidable effects of climate change including the increasing magnitude and frequency of such events as:
floods 2017 flood season: $73M in provincial government response costs
Estimated cost of a climate-driven, 100-yr flood in the Lower Mainland: $32B (2016 study for the Fraser Basin Council)
heat waves 2009 Vancouver heat wave: 200 additional deaths directly attributable (cause excess deaths that exceed the background death rate)
wildfires 2017 season: 65,000 people evacuated, many for 60+ days, with significant psychosocial effects felt many months after the event
extreme weather events
Precipitation: Peace Region flood in 2016 required $120M in TRAN infrastructure repairs
• Estimated cost of climate change impacts (e.g. sea level rise, health, forestry) across Canada will rise from $5B/yr in 2020, to between $21B and $43B/yr in 2050 (2011, National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy)
What the Auditor General Told Us About Resilience
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• Government is not adequately managing the risks of climate change
• Contains 17 recommendations - 15 target adaptation
• Recommendation #1: undertake a province-wide risk assessment and provide an overview of key risks and priorities
• Recommendation #2: release a new climate adaptation plan
• Recommendation: #6: performance monitoring framework
• Recommendation: #7: provide detailed public reporting on adaptation when completing legislated reporting on mitigation.
Managing Climate Change Risks – An Independent Audit B.C. Office of the Auditor General February 2018
Government wholeheartedly accepted the recommendations and committed to establishing a process to ensure their intent is achieved.
Building Blocks of Climate Resilience
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Understand Climate-Related
Risks
Build Capacity
Manage Climate-Related
Risks
Plan for a Resilient Future
Report on Climate-Related
Risks
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Understand Climate-Related Risks
• Climate risk assessment framework has been developed, consistent with provincial risk policy and standards
• To assess provincially-significant climate risks o understand risk consequences o support prioritization of government investment in adaptation
• Target completion: March 2019
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2020
Beginning with a report for the 2020 calendar year, and continuing with a report for every subsequent even-numbered calendar year, government will publicly report on climate change risks and progress. This includes: o the risks to BC that could reasonably be expected to result from a
changing climate, o the progress that has been made toward reducing those risks, o the actions that have been taken to achieve that progress, and o the plans to continue that progress.
Climate Change Accountability Act – New Reporting Requirements
Report on Climate-Related Risks
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Climate Resilience Readiness Framework
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Evaluating effectiveness is tricky
Shifting baselines
Uncertainty
Measuring risks avoided
Universal indicators inappropriate
Contribution ≠ Attribution
Long temporal horizon
Lack of universal definitions
Outcome-based
Process-based
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Capacity-based
Were adaptation outcomes accomplished? Risks avoided?
Were the processes for adaptation equitable, effective, efficient, legitimate, etc.?
Were conditions that can enable adaptation strengthened?
Vulnerability-based How is vulnerability changing?
Different Approaches to Adaptation M&E
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• Indigenous knowledge
• Regionally relevant research
Measures of Readiness
Measures of Readiness
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• Training/certification for professionals
• Public, free data sets
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• Co-produced knowledge • Adaptation trained staff
Measures of Readiness
Measures of Readiness
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• Ability to act/decide without additional permissions
• Appropriate jurisdiction
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• Strategic Plans • Public statements
Measures of Readiness
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• Public opinion/understanding surveys
• Media coverage of adaptation/climate impacts
Measures of Readiness
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• Staff capacity • Coordinating team/lead
department • Involvement in
collaborative committees
Measures of Readiness
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• Dedicated funding for implementation
• Multi-year funding • Ability to use funding;
respond to funding calls (shovel-ready projects)
Measures of Readiness
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• Projects implemented that consider adaptation
• Adaptation considered in capital planning, demographic planning
Measures of Readiness
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• Adaptation in key performance indicators
• Ongoing risk/capacity/vulnerability assessment process
• Iteration built in
Measures of Readiness
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• Commitment to reporting on adaptation
• Adaptation included in other reporting
• Adaptation included in planning progress reports
• Public disclosure of implications
Measures of Readiness
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• Planning iteration required or a commitment
• Existence of mandated/committed regular reviews
Measures of Readiness
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Evaluation Example
Questions?
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Amanda Broad, Senior Policy Analyst Climate Risk Management
BC Climate Action Secretariat [email protected]
Bours, D., McGinn, C., Pringle, P. (2014) Guidance for M&E of Climate Change Interventions. SeaChange and UKCIP, London, UK. Ford, J. and King, D. (2015) A framework for examining adaptation readiness. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 20: 505-526 Ford, J., Berrang-Ford, L., Lesnikowsky, A., Barrera, M., Heyman, S.J. (2013) How to Track Adaptation to Climate Change: A Typology of Approaches for National-Level Application. Ecology and Society 18: 40. Gagnon-Lebrun, F. and Agrawala, S. (2007) Implementing adaptation in developed countries: an analysis of progress and trends. Climate Policy 7: 392-408. Moser, S.C. and Ekstrom, J.A. (2010) A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107(51): 22026–22031. Moser, S.C. and Boykoff, M. (eds.) (2013) Successful Adaptation to Climate Change – Linking science and policy in a rapidly changing world. New York, Routledge.
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Adaptation M&E References