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Results of the Foreign Policy Association’s National Opinion Survey

NatioNal opiNioN Ballot RepoRt greAt Decisions

2007

2

The NatioNal opiNioN Ballot RepoRt was prepared by the Foreign Policy Association: Karen M. Rohan, Editor in Chief;

Ann Monjo, Managing Editor; Agnieshka Burke, Art and Production Editor.Drafted by Abigael Mahony, Editorial Assistant.

OPiNiON bAllOtS have been included with the Foreign Policy Association’s Great Decisions since 1955 to enable participants to make their views known. each year FPA sends the national opinion Ballot report to the White House, the departments of state and Defense, members of congress, the media and con-cerned citizens.

Ballots received by June 30 were tabulated by Calculogic Corporation, 61 Grand Avenue, Englewood, New Jersey 07631. Design by Agnieshka Burke.

Printed by Signature Press, Amherst Junction, WI.

Additional copies of this report may be obtained free of charge from the Foreign Policy Association, 470 Park Avenue South, New York, NY 10016-6819. The report can be accessed at our Web site at www.fpa.org.

about Great Decisions balloters

A. How many years have you participated in the GReat DecisioNs program (that is, attended one or more discussion sessions)?This is the first year I have participated. 24.5%

i participated in one previous year. 14.0%

i participated in more than one previous year. 61.5%

B. Have you been abroad during the last two years?

yes 55.2% no 44.8%

C. Do you know, or are you learning, a foreign language?

yes 44.4% no 51.8%

D. What is the highest level of formal education you have completed?

some high school 0.3%

High-school degree 3.2%

some college 10.2%

college graduate 40.1%

Advanced degree 46.2%

E. How often are you asked for your opinion on foreign policy?

often 17.1%

sometimes 50.0%

Hardly ever 32.9%

F. How many hours, on average, do you spend reading one GReat DecisioNs topic?

less than 1 hr. 17.3%

1–2 hrs. 63.2%

3–4 hrs. 17.2%

More than 4 hrs. 2.3%

G. Do you have access to the internet? (check all that apply)

yes, at home. 85.0%

yes, at work. 12.4%

yes, at school. 3.7%

yes, at the library or internet café. 17.4%

no. 10.5%

H. Would you say you have or have not changed your opinion in a fairly signifi-cant way as a result of taking part in the GReat DecisioNs program?

Have 47.1%Have not 28.6%Uncertain 24.3%

©the new yorker collection 1977 Joseph Mirachi from cartoonbank.com. All rights reserved.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding off.

Ballot Report Highlights

OpiniOn BAllOts are included in each annual Great Decisions, a 112-page briefing book prepared by the national, nonpartisan, not-for-profit For-eign Policy Association. this year, 22,092 ballots were received from people who took part in study and discussion of eight major foreign policy issues, with approximately 2,700 participants, on average, sending in ballots for a given topic. The five states whose participants submitted the largest number of ballots are, in descending order, california, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and north carolina.

the ballots cast by participants in the Foreign Policy Association’s study and discussion program indicate:

Support for:

aThe U.S. dealing with groups it has classified as terroristsa the U.s. engaging diplomatically with iran

a the belief that climate change is a planetary emergency and that implementing a “geo-green” strategy is crucial to make America energy-independent

aWorking out more-enlightened legislation concerning illegal immigration to the U.s., and allowing illegal immigrants already in the U.s. to stay

aPressing Western governments to remove price obstacles to drug treatment for HiV/AiDs

a Maintaining a U.s. presence in central Asia, and investing in the region without expecting countries to implement political reforms

Opposition to:

aBeefing up the Border Patrol and building a fence on the U.S.-Mexican border to help stop illegal immigration

asending suspects in international terror cases to their home countries for trial and punishment

aDetaining terror suspects indefinitely in closed extrajudicial facilities such as those at guantánamo Bay in cuba and Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan

agiving U.s. aid based on a country’s strategic importance or its role in the war on terror

aoutsourcing work as opposed to allowing increased immigration

Other views from our balloters:

“Since when do we refuse to talk to groups or countries we don’t like or approve of? is this what diplomacy is about?”

“‘Democracy’ grows slowly and it is audacious to think we can impose it.”

“the USA is not king of the world—we should be part of the world puzzle.”

“Most of the remedies…are measures that would benefit us anyway—like cleaner air and cleaner water and less acid rain.”

“Other countries can ‘come up to speed’ later. Our signing [Kyoto] does not ‘close’ the matter for other countries.”

“Employers who feel the need for immigrant (read: cheap) workers should apply for special permits to do so and just be made responsible for the immigrant workers they employ.”

“the UN should be more active with medical help for the AiDS problem [in South Africa]. the U.S. cannot fund all of these African problems.”

“it is not justice unless the world can see—no secret proceedings.”

“No point pouring money into political corruption [in Central Asia].”

4

Issue A. How should the U.s. deal with the threat posed by iran? (Check all that apply.)1. Use sanctions to isolate iran internationally 33.4%2. engage diplomatically 93.0%3. take military action 7.0%4. other 17.8%Issue B. should the U.s. try to promote democracy in the Middle East?yes 50.9%no 49.1%Issue C. Should the U.S. ever deal with groups it has classified as terrorists, e.g. Hamas or Hezbollah?yes 81.6%no 18.4%

topic 1/Middle east

Demonstrating how important, divisive and volatile the Middle east is, this topic garnered the largest commentary response of all the Great Decisions

topics. President george W. Bush has excluded Hamas from the U.s.-led international conference to resolve the outstanding issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that will be held this fall. However, President Bush’s exclusion of Hamas goes against the 81.6% of respondents who think that the U.s. should engage with groups classified as terrorists. “We need to cease demonizing groups and nations,” said one participant. But one of the respondents who disagreed commented, “How do you deal as a nation (the U.s. or anyone else) with any group or organization within a country, which is at odds with its own ‘legitimate’ government?”on the subject of iran, 93% of those polled responded that the U.s. should deal diplomatically with any threat posed by the country. “We cannot charge into another Middle east country without really thinking through the consequences,” concluded one balloter.interestingly, respondents were equally split on the question of whether the U.s. should try to promote democracy in the Middle east. comments ranged from “‘democracy’ grows slowly and it is audacious to think we can impose it” to “yes, but not aggressively.” those who supported promoting democracy stressed that it be by diplomacy and inspiration, and not by force. one balloter didn’t check “yes” or “no” but wrote in “ambivalent,” and another checked both “yes” and “no.”

5

Issue A. the New York times columnist thomas Friedman has proposed a “crash program for alternative energy and conservation to make America energy-inde-pendent in 10 years.” Do you agree or disagree with this “geo-green” strategy? Agree 84.9%Disagree 15.1%Issue B. Do you think the following measures will be significantly helpful in cut-ting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? yes no

1. Higher emission standards for motor vehicles. 93.4% 6.6%2. Public/federal/local funds to create “green” cities. 75.2% 24.8%3. large-scale reforestation to create new carbon sinks. 89.5% 10.0%4. Mandatory emissions controls on businesses. 85.7% 14.3%5. Voluntary emissions controls on businesses. 37.3% 62.7%6. reducing the amount of new gHgs being produced. 92.6% 7.4%Issue C. Your concern about the impact of climate change is most closely expressed by which statement?1. climate change is “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.” 4.9%2. climate change is “a planetary emergency.” 73.4%3. there is not enough information at this time to determine the long-term impact of climate change. 21.7%Issue D. please choose one of the following positions in regard to the Kyoto protocol:1. the U.s. should ratify the Kyoto Protocol, even if there are no commitments from developing countries to cut emissions. 68.1%2. the U.s. should not ratify the Kyoto Protocol until there are commitments from developing countries to cut emissions. 25.7%3. the U.s. should not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, period. 6.2%

topic 2/Global WarMinG

Mirroring statements made by leaders of the g-8 summit that “combating climate change is one of the major challenges for mankind,”roughly three

quarters of those polled found that climate change is “a planetary emergency.” in response to this emergency, 85.7% of balloters believed that the most significant measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would be mandatory, not voluntary, emissions controls on businesses. in addition, one respondent commented that “we need to educate the entire population on conservation efforts and use them.”While President george W. Bush continues to refuse to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, he has called for the 15 countries producing the largest amounts of greenhouse gases to confer this fall on a new framework to take effect when the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. yet a majority of those polled advocate faster action, responding that regardless of any commitment from developing countries to cut emissions, the U.s. should still ratify the Kyoto Protocol. one balloter commented that “the U.s. should lead by example. [But] i don’t believe the ‘entitlement’ mentality of the current culture can make this a meaningful approach.”

6

Issue A. How important are the following issues facing president Calderón at home?

Most IMportAnt IMportAnt not IMportAnt

1. curbing the excessive greed (and power) of legislators and cutting down on political corruption. 66.7% 32.4% 0.9%2. overhauling the tax system to provide the means for a universal educational system and a health care program for all. 65.0% 33.2% 1.8%3. rooting out impediments to internal competition and a market economy to help alleviate unemployment. 52.1% 46.2% 1.7%4. Working out the most effective strategy for handling drug-trafficking cartels and establishing extradition arrangements with the U.s. 44.6% 48.7% 6.7%

Issue B. In dealing with Mexico, the U.S. should: Agree DIsAgree

l. Beef up the Border Patrol and spend the $1.2 billion allocated for 700 miles of fencing and sensors to help stop all illegal entrants. 28.8% 71.2%2. take advantage of Mexico having a new president and the U.s. now having a congress controlled by Democrats to try to work out new, more-enlightened legislation concerning current illegal entrants and those already here. 89.1% 10.9%3. try to help the new president shore up the economy and improve social conditions so there will not be so many Mexicans wanting to leave. 90.8% 9.2%

topic 3/Mexico

two thirds of those polled responded that cutting down on political corrup-tion was the most important issue facing Mexican President Felipe calderón,

followed by slightly under two thirds arguing that he must overhaul the tax system to provide the means for universal education and health care. However, in the first eight months of his presidency, President Calderón’s main focus has been on implementing measures and policies to control extensive drug-gang violence, as well as curb corruption within local police forces.in dealing with Mexico, 90.8% of those responding think the U.s. should help President calderón shore up the economy and improve social conditions so there will not be so many Mexicans wanting to leave. Although balloters are concerned about the flow of illegal immigrants from Mexico into the U.S., 71.2% did not agree that spending $1.2 billion dollars on fencing and sensors is necessary for a stronger Border Patrol. one who did support strengthening the border argued, “il-legal immigrants provide cheap labor, which undermines our own labor force. the benefits of this cheap labor are outweighed by the social costs.”

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Issue A. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Agree Agree DIsAgree DIsAgree strongly strongly

1. Building a fence on the U.s.-Mexican border is an effective way to slow illegal immigration. 5.2% 12.7% 33.1% 49.0%2. illegal immigration to the U.s. hurts the economy. 8.9% 25.1% 53.1% 12.9%3. setting up a guest-worker program is a good response to illegal immigration. 35.0% 56.0% 6.7% 2.3%4. illegal immigrants already in the U.s. should be allowed to stay. 12.9% 50.9% 27.6% 8.6%

Issue B. Do you think it is a contradiction to support the free movement of goods and services that characterize globalization, on the one hand, and to limit the free movement of workers, on the other hand? yes 62.5%no 37.5%Issue C. Would you rather have jobs move to other countries, i.e. outsourcing, or allow workers to move to the U.s.? (choose one)let foreign workers move to the U.s., but only for limited periods of time. 28.2%let foreign workers move to the U.s., with the possibility of becoming citizens. 60.8%outsource work when feasible rather than allow increased immigration. 10.9%

topic 4/international MiGration

the Department of Homeland security has paid $20 million for the installa-tion of a virtual fence scanning 28 miles of border. yet, some 82% of respon-

dents strongly disagree that building a fence on the U.s.-Mexican border is an effective way to slow illegal immigration. “if economic forces move like ‘water seeking its own level,’ then we must deal with immigration in ways other than just a wall,” explained one balloter.A total of 91% of balloters agreed with or strongly agreed with the proposal to set up a guest-worker program in response to illegal immigration. this mentality is re-iterated in the fact that 60.8% of respondents advocate foreign workers moving to the U.s., with the possibility of becoming citizens, as opposed to U.s. companies outsourcing. one balloter cautioned that “employer sanctions are the only way to successfully deal with immigration. If illegal immigrants cannot find work they will return to their countries.” A little over half of those polled responded that they disagreed with the fact that illegal immigration hurts the U.s. economy.

8

Issue A. South Africa has a serious public health problem, with an estimated 12.5% of the population infected with HiV/AiDs. How important are the follow-ing strategies? very soMewhAt not IMportAnt IMportAnt IMportAnt

1. Making drug treatments available to as many infected people as possible. 85.6% 13.6% 0.9%2. educating the public about HiV/AiDs. 96.2% 3.3% 0.5%3. Having the government issue realistic, clear statements about the disease, its treatment and prevention. 91.0% 8.4% 0.6%4. Pressing Western governments to remove price obstacles to drug treatment. 67.8% 28.7% 3.4%

Issue B. What are the most pressing challenges facing south Africa? (Rank the fol-lowing in order of urgency, with 1 being most urgent, and 4 being least urgent.)

#1 #2 #3 #4

aiDs 40.9% 28.7% 18.2% 10.5%crime 10.3% 18.6% 34.0% 37.1%Poverty 35.2% 31.9% 21.0% 11.8%economy 19.8% 18.4% 23.7% 38.1%

Issue C. the African national Congress (AnC) surprised the world with its conser-vative fiscal policy that has resulted in a long period of sustained economic growth for south Africa. Do you think the country can maintain this momentum? yes 78.1%no 21.9%

topic 5/south africa

south Africa suffered a major economic setback in June 2007 as a result of a strike by 700,000 government workers. the strike, led by the congress of

south African trade Unions, cost south Africa’s economy an estimated $418 mil-lion dollars. However, prior to the strike, 78.1% of respondents believed south Af-rica could sustain the economic growth that has resulted from the African national Congress’s conservative fiscal policy.HiV/AiDs is a very serious problem in south Africa, and 85.6% of those polled felt that making drug treatments available to as many infected people as possible was of utmost importance. one way to accomplish that, replied 67.8% of balloters, is for Western governments to remove price obstacles to drug treatment, although one balloter thought that “the Un should be more active with medical help for the AiDs problem.” respondents also called for the government of south Africa to take the HiV/AiDs situation much more seriously—91% think that the govern-ment should issue realistic, clear statements about the disease, its treatment and prevention.

9

topic 6/War criMes

Issue A. Consistent with a rational balancing of American national security and civil liberties interests, captured terror suspects would best be: (Rank in order of preference, 1 being the most desirable and 4 being the least.)

#1 #2 #3 #4

1. Afforded the same legal rights accorded U.s. citizens: habeas corpus, legal representation, trial by jury, access to evidence, etc. 33.1% 33.7% 15.6% 17.6%2. subjected to more-restrictive proceedings under the U.s. Military code of Justice, as mandated by the geneva conventions. 55.1% 33.4% 10.0% 1.5%3. tried by “military commissions” under the 2006 law that denies habeas corpus and judicial review and allows hearsay evidence. 13.2% 22.3% 56.0% 8.5%4. Detained indefinitely in closed extrajudicial facilities such as at guantánamo Bay in cuba and Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan. 4.7% 7.0% 14.0% 74.2%

Issue B. international jihadist terror poses a threat to American national survival that renders obsolete previously accepted understandings of constitutional and international legal obligations:yes 39.5%no 60.5%Issue C. As a global standard, do you support or oppose the following avenues for judging individuals accused of committing war crimes such as terrorism? support oppose

1. signing on to the international criminal court and referring all cases there. 66.6% 33.4%2. seeking establishment of a special court under Un sponsorship. 63.0% 37.0%3. in international terror cases, sending suspects to their home countries for trial and punishment. 16.3% 83.7%4. in national atrocity cases, forming truth and reconciliation commissions to establish facts and air concerns. 88.6% 11.4%5. Forming truth commissions, but with the option of criminally prosecuting the worst offenders. 79.3% 20.7%6. creating special tribunals with limited defendant rights to ensure that security trumps the vagaries of law. 37.2% 62.8%7. Allowing governments to secretly arrest and detain foreign nationals suspected of committing war crimes. 20.7% 79.3%

those polled are resoundingly in favor of maintaining and adhering to cur-rent international law with regard to the rights of individuals committing war

crimes and terrorist acts. And 60.5% of respondents do not agree that American national survival should override constitutional and international legal obligations. roughly two thirds of balloters oppose creating special tribunals with limited de-fendant rights and allowing governments to secretly arrest and detain foreign na-tionals suspected of committing war crimes is opposed by 79.3% of respondents.

10

topic 7/central asia

Issue A. Do you agree with the following statements? Agree Agree DIsAgree DIsAgree strongly strongly

1. the shanghai cooperation organization (sco) will threaten U.S. influence and reform efforts in central Asia. 14.5% 49.1% 32.7% 3.7%2. Washington needs to maintain a presence in central Asia to balance the influence of China and russia. 28.0% 51.0% 17.2% 3.8%3. As central Asian countries develop economically, they will become less authoritarian. 8.5% 49.3% 37.7% 4.4%

Issue B. Rank the following U.s. policy goals in Central Asia in order of importance: (with 1 being most important, and 3 being least important)

#1 #2 #3

expansion of freedom and prosperity in central Asia. 25.5% 44.9% 29.6%U.s. access to central Asian energy supplies. 23.9% 22.3% 53.8%integration of central Asia into the world community. 51.0% 32.5% 16.5%

Issue C. should the U.s. follow China’s lead and invest in the region without expect-ing countries to implement political reforms?yes 70.2%no 29.8%

Russia most recently extended its influence into Central Asia when President Vladimir Putin agreed with the region’s main energy producers, turkmeni-

stan and Kazakhstan, to build a natural gas pipeline along the caspian sea via rus-sia. By means of the pipeline, russia will maintain its monopoly on the transit of Turkmen and Kazakh exports. Approximately four fifths of the respondents either agree, or agree strongly, that Washington needs to maintain a presence in central Asia to balance the influence of China and Russia.if America is to assert a stronger presence in central Asia, 70.2% of those polled think that it should follow china’s lead and invest in the region without expecting countries to implement political reforms. An important U.s. policy goal for more than half of the respondents is the prospect of central Asia’s integration into the world community.

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topic 8/children

Issue A. How would you categorize the following issues affecting the world’s children?:

very soMewhAt not IMportAnt IMportAnt IMportAnt

1. Forced labor 73.1% 25.9% 1.1%2. Disease 91.7% 7.6% 0.6%3. Participation in combat 72.8% 25.0% 2.2%4. Poverty 87.2% 12.1% 0.8%5. lack of education 88.3% 11.0% 0.6%

Issue B. Which of the following do you think is most important in determining whether a country gets U.s. aid ? (Rank in order of importance, 1 being the most important and 6 being the least.)

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6

1. its level of need 71% 11.1% 6.6% 4.1% 1.8% 5.3%2. its commitment to a market economy 5.0% 12.2% 24.5% 23.4% 18.3% 16.7%3. its democratic institutions 3.4% 12.9% 23.7% 25.2% 19.4% 15.4%4. its government’s transparency 12.2% 39.1% 18.2% 13.8% 9.5% 7.1%5. its strategic importance 8.2% 13.8% 16.3% 18.0% 29.2% 14.6%6. its role in the war on terror 5.6% 13.2% 11.7% 13.3% 19.0% 37.2%

Our discussion participants indicated that all issues affecting the world’s children are very important but they gave priority to disease, lack of educa-

tion and poverty over forced labor and participation in combat. the responses reflect the findings in a March 2007 report by the United Nations Human Rights council, which covers violence against children, including cruel and humiliating punishment, genital mutilation in girls, neglect and sexual abuse, but does not ad-dress children in armed conflicts. A country’s level of need, its government’s transparency and its commitment to a market economy were designated by balloters as the top three conditions to be satisfied in determining whether a nation gets U.S. aid. A country’s role in the war on terror was found to be the least important condition on which to base aid.

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