Results for Market Forecast

April 16-20, 2007

Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc

All rights reserved.

And ongoing reassessment of April Monthly Forecast

Overview

• Our forecasted socioeconomic theme of “turbulence, volatility and violence” for the week was right on.

• The associated market movements were, for the most part, not as forecasted.

• We conclude NOT to continue to publish market forecasts for the time being.

Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

A Week of Violence

• Forecasted Theme: Turbulence, Volatility, and Violent movements.

• Expectation was that some type of violent outbreak would occur with corresponding abrupt, turbulent, “violent” market movements.

• Monday: Virginia Tech shooting.

• Wednesday: 180+ lost in Iraq car bombs.

Market Movement Not as Expected

Correct:• Dollar forecast net change “close to 0”

– Opened for the week at 81.79, closed at 81.44; down only 0.4%.

Incorrect:• Oil forecast net gain of 2.3%

– Actual was down 2.9%

• Dow forecast net drop of 3% or more– Actual was up 1.2%

Half right, but half wrong

• We are encouraged that we were able to spot a “week of violence” through our market forecasting before it happened.

• However, the anticipated corresponding market movements never materialized.

Conclusions

• The forecasts that are “right on” such as the Dollar this week tell us that we are on to something beyond random guessing.

• However, there is currently no way to tell the likelihood that a given forecast will be right or not.

• For the time being, we will no longer publish weekly forecasts, as their use to the general public is limited.

Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

April Monthly Forecast - updateEnd of 3rd 6 day segment

Crude Oil (through 4-18-07)

• Tracking below forecast at this point• Less confidence that Crude will climb to full extent of original $78 forecast.

% Price Change, Cumulative - April 2007

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1 7 13 19 25 30

Crude Oil Forecast Actual

US Dollar Index (through 4-18-07)

• US Dollar still tracking very well thus far. Moderate confidence it will continue downward trend at this point.

% Price Change, Cumulative - April 2007

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

1 7 13 19 25 30

US Dollar Forecast Actual

The Stock Market (through 4-18-07)

• Lowered confidence in S&P forecast at this point

% Price Change, Cumulative - April 2007

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1 7 13 19 25 30

S&P Forecast Actual

Gold (through 4-18-07)

• Low confidence; though actuals approaching forecast.

% Price Change, Cumulative - April 2007

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1 7 13 19 25 30

Gold Forecast Actual

April – ongoing assessment

• We will be watching most intently through the end of the month for any significant market movements in line with our original forecast.

• At this time, we can not say conclusively whether or not an increased geopolitical risk or the perception thereof is on the horizon.

Conclusion

• Regardless of whether the actuals for the month of April end up more in line with our original forecast or not, we have decided NOT to continue to publish market forecasts of any type until:– We understand why sometimes they don’t

work.– We have a method of giving a confidence

level to the forecast at the outset.

Disclaimer

A New Story Foundation is not a brokerage firm nor are we professional investment advisors. Please consult the appropriate person/firm for specific investment advice.

More information can be found on our website at http://anewstory.org.

Thanks for your interest.