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International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Restarting Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Engine
Regional Economic Outlook
Montfort Mlachila Senior Resident Representative, South Africa
International Monetary Fund September 2017
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017 2
After 15 years of strong growth, average activity decelerated in sub-Saharan African (SSA)
Significant differences across the region
Key policy questions
For the hardest-hit countries, how to revive growth?
For countries still growing fast, how to sustain growth?
Literature investigating frequency and duration of growth episodes:
Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2005); Jones and Olken (2008); Berg, Ostry, and Zettelmeyer (2012); Tsangarides (2012).
Chapter examines in the context of sub-Saharan Africa.
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017 3
Experience with growth turning points and sustained growth episodes in SSA
How do external and domestic factors or policies behave around turning points?
What extends the duration of sustained growth episodes?
Policy implications
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
The setup
4
• Breaks – Variant of Bai and Perron (1998) procedure to test for structural breaks. – Minimum possible number of years between breaks and statistical
significance of those structural breaks. – 184 up-breaks and 185-down breaks in 146 countries over 1950-2016.
• Growth spells – Using the identified breaks and following Berg et al. (2012). – Complete growth spells: (i) start with up-break followed by a period of at
least 2 percent average p.c. income growth; and (ii) end with a down-break followed by a period of less than 2 percent average p.c. income growth.
– Incomplete growth spells: condition (i); and end at the end of the sample. – 80 complete and 67 incomplete spells in the full sample.
4
Trends & Evolution
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Many growth breaks in SSA and fewer down-breaks post 2000…
5
Selected Groups: Growth Up-Breaks 1950–2016
SSA DEV LAC DEV MENA DEV Asia Emerging Advanced
Selected Groups: Growth Down-Breaks 1950–2016
5
12
19
11
5
11
13
5
6
6
13
5
2
9
5
7
4
3
9
10
8
6
8
2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
1950–69
1970–84
1985–99
2000–16
Number of up–breaks
40
30
47
67
5
20
14
8
4
15
7
9
3
11
5
10
7
1
6
3
11
7
5
3
16
6
9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
1950–69
1970–84
1985–99
2000–16
Number of dow n–breaks
47
18
80
40
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
…but also more dramatic shifts in growth.
6
Selected Groups: Change in Median Annual Per Capita Growth During Up-Breaks and Down-Breaks (Percentage points)
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
SSA
DEV
MEN
A
Emer
ging
DEV
Asia
DEV
LAC
Adva
nced
Med
ian ch
ange
in ra
te of
grow
th Up–breaksDow n–breaks
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Growth spells are frequent in the region and more concentrated after 1995…
7
Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth Spells 1960–94
Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth Spells 1995–2016
No spellsOil ex portersOther resource-intensiv e countriesNonresource-intensiv e countries
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
…but spells in SSA are shorter than elsewhere and often end in “rough landings”.
8
Selected Groups: Median Annual Per Capita Growth Before, During, and After Completed Spells (Percentage points)
–6
–4
–2
0
2
4
6
8
10
SSA
DEV
MEN
A
DEV
LAC
DEV
Asia
Emer
ging
Adva
nced
Med
ian gr
owth
rate
1. Before
–6
–4
–2
0
2
4
6
8
10
SSA
DEV
MEN
A
DEV
LAC
DEV
Asia
Emer
ging
Adva
nced
2. During
–6
–4
–2
0
2
4
6
8
10
SSA
DEV
MEN
A
DEV
LAC
DEV
Asia
Emer
ging
Adva
nced
3. After
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017 9
Experience with growth turning points and sustained growth episodes in SSA
How do external and domestic factors or policies behave around turning points?
What extends the duration of sustained growth episodes?
Policy implications
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Coincident changes during turning points
10
• Examine what happens in an economy that experiences transitions between periods of strong and weak growth.
• Relate incidence of growth up-breaks and down-breaks to changes in external and domestic factors and policies.
• Methodology – Statistical tests on the changes observed in the mean values of each of the
variables of interest at the time of structural breaks in growth.
– No causal relationships between changes and the incidence of the breaks.
– Not controlling for other factors that may influence the break incidence.
10
Breaks
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Growth turning points coincide with significant changes in key exogenous factors…
11
Sub-Saharan Africa: Change in External Shocks Variables Associated with Growth Breaks (Percentage points)
¹ Changes divided by 5. Note: *, **, and *** indicate that the changes in means are significant at the 10, 5 and 1 percent levels.
**
***
*
–4.0 –2.0 0.0 2.0
Terms of trade,change
U.S. federalfunds rate
Oil price,change¹
Change in up–breaks Change in dow n–breaks
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
… but also in the macroeconomic environment.
12
Sub-Saharan Africa: Change in Macroeconomic Variables Associated with Growth Breaks (percentage points)
¹ Changes divided by 10. 2 Changes divided by 5. Note: *, **, and *** indicate that the changes in means are significant at the 10, 5 and 1 percent levels.
***
***
**
***
**
***
***
*
–2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0
Inflation
Investment to GDP, ratio
Trade to GDP²
Foreign direct investment to GDP
Government revenue to GDP
Overall fiscal balance to GDP²
External debt to GDP¹
Aid to GDP²
Exchange rate regime (de facto)
Change in up–breaks Change in dow n–breaks
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Turning points are also associated with changes in institutional, social, and structural indicators.
13
Growth up-breaks in the region coincide with improvements in the institutional environment and fewer conflicts
Improvements in structural factors are also associated with growth up-breaks
Total factor productivity, diversification, technology adoption
Market distortions associated with down-breaks
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017 14
Experience with growth turning points and sustained growth episodes in SSA
How do external and domestic factors or policies behave around turning points?
What influences the duration of sustained growth episodes?
Policy implications
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Tighter global financial conditions and, to some extent, deteriorating terms of trade reduce the length of the growth spell.
15
External Shocks
EMEDEV = all emerging and developing economies; EMEDEVxSSA = all emerging and developing economies excluding sub-Saharan Africa
Incr
ease
d ris
k th
at th
e sp
ell w
ill e
nd
*
** **
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
US interest rates
Chan
ge in
prob
abilit
y, in
units
1. Interest Rate
***
*** ***
–0.015
–0.010
–0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
Oil price, percent change Terms of trade, percentchange
Chan
ge in
prob
abilit
y, in
units
2. Oil Price and Terms of Trade
SSA World EMEDEV EMEDEVxSSA
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
But sound macroeconomic policies prolong spells…
16
Macroeconomic Indicators
Incr
ease
d ris
k th
at th
e sp
ell w
ill e
nd
***
*
***
*
**
*
–0.09
–0.06
–0.03
0.00
Government revenue toGDP, change
Investment to GDP,change
Chan
ge in
prob
abilit
y, in
units
2. Government Revenue, and Total Investment
***
*
–0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
Overall fiscal balance toGDP, initial
Total public debt to GDP
Chan
ge in
prob
abilit
y, in
units
1. Overall Fiscal Balance, and Public Debt
SSA EMEDEV World EMEDEVxSSA
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
…as do good institutions and a peaceful environment.
17
Institutions and Conflict
Incr
ease
d ris
k th
at th
e sp
ell w
ill e
nd
SSA EMEDEV World EMEDEVxSSA
***
***
*
**
*** **
** **
*** **
**
**
**
–0.40–0.35–0.30–0.25–0.20–0.15–0.10–0.05
0.00
Politicalstability
(Polity 2)
Politicalstability(Polity 2,
cumulativechange)
Moreconstraints
on theExecutive (initial)
Investmentprofile
Chan
ge in
prob
abilit
y, in
units
***
***
–1.00
–0.75
–0.50
–0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
Fewer internal conflict(cumulative change)
Fewer civil wars
Chan
ge in
prob
abilit
y, in
units
2. Internal Conflict and Civil War1. Institutions, Executive Constraints, Investment Profile
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Putting it all together: improved policies, better institutions, fewer market distortions, and a better external environment support growth spells.
18
Sub-Saharan Africa: Impact on Spell Duration (Years)
Note: Each bar shows the change in the expected duration of a growth spell (in numbers of years) if a variable improves by 25 percentile points from the median value in the sample of sub-Saharan African countries, while holding other variables constant.
012345678
Tradeopenness
Inflation Investmentto GDP
Total publicdebt
Oil price,change
Terms oftrade
growth
Polity 2,cumulative
change
Real GDPper capita
growth
Relative priceof
investment toconsumption
Macroeconomic Variables External Shocks Institutions Other
Impa
ct of
an im
prov
emen
t of 2
5 pe
rcen
tile po
ints s
tartin
g fro
m
the m
edian
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017 19
Experience with growth turning points and sustained growth episodes in SSA
How do external and domestic factors or policies behave around turning points?
What influences the duration of sustained growth episodes?
Policy implications
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Summary of Results
20
• Growth spells in sub-Saharan Africa are sustained by improved monetary and fiscal policies, better political institutions, less market distortions, and better external environment. – Increases in the investment rate, more trade openness, lower inflation, more exchange
rate flexibility, and lower debt to GDP ratio tend to prolong spells in the region.
– Higher growth rate in the previous period increases the probability that a spell comes to an end—pointing to the risks associated with an overheated economy.
• Confirm the “Africa-rising” narrative: accommodative global conditions, high commodity prices, and improvements in policies implemented have sustained spells so far.
• Additional benefits from improvements in the political environment and reducing distortions associated with high relative price of investment.
20
Spells: summary view
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Conclusions and Policy Considerations
21
Strong domestic policy response to revive growth
Macroeconomic and structural policies
Countries where growth has slowed focus on macroeconomic stability to set the stage for a growth turnaround that can be sustained
Countries enjoying a growth spell address emerging vulnerabilities and focus on prolonging growth
All countries complementing efforts to unlock growth potential
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Thank You
The online edition of the
Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa
is now available at www.imf.org
Also check:
Arizala, et al. 2017. “Growth Breaks and Growth Spells
in Sub-Saharan Africa,” IMF Working Paper 17/202.
22
Additional material
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Breaks procedure
24
• Berg et al. (2012) apply a variant of Bai-Perron (1998, 2003) to test for multiple structural breaks in time series when both the number and location are unknown. – Sample-specific critical values, heteroskedasticity and sample size (rather than asymptotic). – Details in Antoshin et al. (2008).
• Identify structural breaks in each country’s per capita growth (rgdpch, PPP Converted GDP Per Capita (chain series), at 2005 constant prices in Penn Tables 7.1).
Process • Minimum years between breaks h; total breaks b = int(T/h)-1; so for T = 50, b = 9. • Algorithm tests for the presence of up to b breaks in the growth series.
– Test null hypothesis of zero structural breaks against the alternative of 1 or more (up to b). – The location of potential breaks is decided by minimizing the sum of squared residuals between the
actual data and the average growth rate before and after the break(s).
– Critical values generated through Monte Carlo simulations.
24
For example, 305let == ,Th . Discard the first h periods. -Test for 1 break:
},...,,,{ 2514131211 ===== ttttt RSSRSSRSSRSSRSSMin -Test for 2 breaks:
},...,...,...,,,...,,{ 25,2025,1217,1225,1117,1116,11 ============ tttttttttttt RSSRSSRSSRSSRSSRSSMin -Test for 3 breaks, etc:
},...,,...,,...,{ 25,16,1122,16,1125,20,1121,16,11 ============ tttttttttttt RSSRSSRSSRSSMin
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Growth breaks
25
25
RegionNo. of
countriesTotal
Average break size
50s-60s 1970-84 1985-99 2000-16 Total Average break size
50s-60s 1970-84 1985-99 2000-16
Total upbreaks 146 184 9 30 47 67 40 116 8 17 16 60 23Advanced 30 24 5 8 6 8 2 9 5 4 2 3 0Emerging 18 26 8 4 3 9 10 18 6 5 0 9 4Developing 98 134 10 18 38 50 28 89 9 8 14 48 19
Sub-Saharan Africa 42 47 13 5 12 19 11 36 12 2 5 18 11LAC 24 34 7 5 11 13 5 19 6 5 1 11 2Asia 13 23 8 2 9 5 7 15 6 0 6 5 4MENA 19 30 11 6 6 13 5 19 12 1 2 14 2
Total downbreaks 146 185 -9 18 80 40 47 120 -7 7 53 32 28Advanced 30 34 -5 3 16 6 9 27 -4 2 11 5 9Emerging 18 26 -8 3 11 7 5 15 -7 2 8 3 2Developing 98 125 -10 12 53 27 33 78 3 3 34 24 17
Sub-Saharan Africa 42 47 -11 5 20 14 8 34 -9 1 16 12 5LAC 24 35 -7 4 15 7 9 19 -6 1 10 4 4Asia 13 14 -12 0 7 1 6 7 -10 0 2 2 3MENA 19 29 -12 3 11 5 10 18 -12 1 6 6 5
Table 1. Growth Breaks by Decade and Country Group (h=5 and h=8) 1950-2016
h=5 h=8
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Growth spells: frequency and duration
26
26
10 years 16 years 10 years 16 years
Advanced 30 13 17 77 31 6 15 100 17Emerging 18 9 11 33 11 5 13 80 20Developing 98 58 12 45 22 25 13 52 24
Sub-Saharan Africa 42 15 8 33 13 6 9 33 0LAC 24 18 11 44 22 8 13 63 25Asia 13 7 15 57 43 4 20 75 75MENA 19 18 13 50 22 7 11 43 14
Advanced 30 8 37 100 100 2 53 100 100Emerging 18 13 27 100 62 11 27 100 73Developing 98 46 22 87 63 50 21 88 68
Sub-Saharan Africa 42 25 22 76 60 25 20 76 64LAC 24 9 22 100 67 10 24 100 80Asia 13 8 23 100 63 8 19 100 63MENA 19 4 24 100 75 7 21 100 71
Advanced 30 21 24 86 57 8 25 100 38Emerging 18 22 20 73 41 16 23 94 56Developing 98 104 16 64 40 75 18 76 53
Sub-Saharan Africa 42 40 17 60 43 31 18 68 52LAC 24 27 15 63 37 18 19 83 56Asia 13 15 20 80 53 12 19 92 67MENA 19 22 15 59 32 14 16 71 43
Incomplete spells
Total
% of spells lasting at
Complete spells
Table 2. Frequency and Duration of Growth Spells (h=5 and h=8) 1950-2016
h=5 h=8No. of
countriesNo. of spells
Mean duration
% of spells lasting at No. of spells
Mean duration
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Growth spells: before, during, after
27
27
before during afterbefore start
after end before during after
before start
after end
Advanced 1.2 5.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.3 0.6 1.1 1.1Emerging -1.1 9.1 -1.9 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 6.0 -1.4 -0.8 0.4Developing -2.8 8.5 -2.0 -3.1 -1.7 -1.6 7.8 -0.5 -0.5 0.1
Sub-Saharan Africa -5.6 9.6 -6.0 -4.6 -6.0 -3.9 8.7 -1.5 -2.3 -0.3LAC -1.2 6.7 -0.3 -2.5 0.0 -0.8 5.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1Asia -0.1 9.1 -1.2 -2.8 -3.0 0.7 6.2 -0.6 1.0 -1.2MENA -3.0 9.2 -0.7 -2.4 0.6 -1.8 11.3 -0.3 -0.1 1.2
Advanced 0.2 4.4 -0.2 2.3 9.2 0.8Emerging -1.9 5.7 -1.7 -0.4 5.3 -0.7Developing -3.9 5.7 -5.3 -3.1 6.4 -5.4
Sub-Saharan Africa -4.8 5.8 -5.5 -4.6 7.0 -6.4LAC -1.8 4.8 -3.1 -0.5 4.9 -2.6Asia -1.5 6.5 -1.3 -0.7 6.3 -1.3MENA -8.3 5.7 -16.6 -4.0 6.3 -11.0
Complete spells
Incomplete spells
Table 3. Average Growth Before, During and After Contraction Spells (h=5 and h=8) 1950-2016h=5 h=8
Average growth 3 years … Average growth 3 years …
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Group Country 1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Angola 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Cameroon 2 1Chad 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Congo, Republic of 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2Equatorial Guinea 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2Gabon 2Nigeria 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 2South SudanBotswana 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Burkina Faso 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Central African RepublCongo, Democratic Rep 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Ghana 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Guinea 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Liberia 2 2 1 3 3 3 3 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Mali 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Namibia 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Niger 2 1 3 3 3 3 2 1Sierra Leone 2South AfricaTanzania 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Zambia 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Zimbabwe 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Benin 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2Burundi 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Cabo Verde 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Comoros 2 2Côte d'Ivoire 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4EritreaEthiopia 1 3 3 3 3 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Gambia, TheGuinea-Bissau 2 1Kenya 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Lesotho 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Madagascar 2 1 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Malawi 2 1Mauritius 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Mozambique 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Rwanda 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Senegal 1 3 3 3 3 2 1SeychellesSwaziland 2São Tomé and Príncipe 2 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4Togo 2Uganda 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Up breaks Down breaks Completed Spells Incompleted Spells
Oil Exporters
Other resource-intensive countries
Non-resource-intensive countries
SSA breaks and spells heat map
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Nigeria
29
29
67
89
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
NigeriaLn(expenditure side GDP per capita using PWT 9.0 extended) with h=5Breakyears: 1960 1968 1974 1985 1990 1998 2005 2010
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Zimbabwe
30
30
77.
58
8.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
ZimbabweLn(expenditure side GDP per capita using PWT 9.0 extended) with h=5Breakyears: 1961 1968 1974 1979 1996 2008
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Ethiopia
31
31
5.5
66.
57
7.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
EthiopiaLn(expenditure side GDP per capita using PWT 9.0 extended) with h=5Breakyears: 1979 1984 2003
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Rwanda
32
32
66.
57
7.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
RwandaLn(expenditure side GDP per capita using PWT 9.0 extended) with h=5Breakyears: 1989 1994
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Uganda
33
33
6.6
6.8
77.
27.
47.
6
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
UgandaLn(expenditure side GDP per capita using PWT 9.0 extended) with h=5Breakyears: 1993
International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, May 2017
Changes during growth turning points
34
34
Variables Sym Obs Sym Obs Sym Obs Sym
Fed Funds (Krippner) -2.4 *** -0.9 *** *** -2.4 *** 145 -0.8 *** *** -2.2 *** 98 -0.9 ** ** -2.9 *** 47 -0.8 ***Trading partners growth 0.4 *** -0.3 * 0.4 ** 90 -0.2 0.5 *** 63 -0.4 * 0.0 27 0.3CTOT, change 0.5 *** -0.3 *** 0.5 *** 142 -0.4 *** 0.6 *** 97 -0.3 ** 0.5 ** 45 -0.6 *
Political risk 6.1 *** 1.3 * *** 6.5 *** 57 1.1 *** 7.6 *** 39 0.7 *** 4.1 ** 18 2.1Internal conflict 1.3 *** 0.0 *** 1.4 *** 58 0.1 *** 1.3 *** 40 0.0 *** 1.5 *** 18 0.3 **Law order 0.4 *** 0.0 *** 0.4 *** 58 0.0 ** 0.4 *** 40 0.0 ** 0.4 ** 18 -0.1
Infant mortality rate -23.2 *** -18.3 *** ** -24.8 *** 137 -20.4 *** ** -23.7 *** 95 -18.9 *** * -27.3 *** 42 -23.6 ***Gini coefficient -1.5 *** 0.4 -1.5 *** 29 0.3 -1.1 * 22 0.2 -2.5 ** 7
Log (1+inflation) -0.3 *** 0.0 ** -0.3 *** 133 0.1 -0.2 ** 94 0.1 -0.4 *** 39 0.1Total inv. to GDP 3.4 *** -0.5 *** 3.6 *** 151 0.1 *** 3.2 *** 104 0.2 *** 4.4 *** 47 -0.2 *Private inv. to GDP 3.5 *** -1.3 3.6 *** 47 -0.8 3.8 *** 26 0.4 3.4 21 -2.4Gov. revenue to GDP 2.2 *** 0.8 2.2 *** 60 0.5 * 1.4 * 47 0.4 3.7 ** 13Gov. exp. to GDP -2.8 2.6 *** -3.1 58 2.4 *** -2.2 44 2.5 *** -4.7 14Fiscal balance to GDP 5.1 * -1.7 *** 5.3 * 57 -1.8 ** 3.7 44 -2.1 *** 8.4 13Trade to GDP 9.5 *** 6.5 *** 9.3 *** 151 3.2 ** *** 9.5 *** 104 2.9 * *** 9.0 ** 47 3.9FDI to GDP -1.5 *** -0.5 * ** -1.6 *** 119 -0.6 ** ** -1.4 *** 86 -0.8 ** -2.2 *** 33 -0.2 **Aid to GDP -0.6 0.8 -0.6 125 0.9 -0.8 87 -0.9 ** -0.1 38 5.0 *** **
RER overvaluation -1.9 5.0 *** -4.0 * 141 4.1 * -3.8 94 4.0 -4.2 47 4.4Large overvaluation -0.1 *** 0.0 ** -0.1 *** 151 0.0 *** -0.1 *** 104 0.0 * -0.1 47 -0.1 *
TFP, growth 3.1 *** -3.5 *** 3.6 *** 88 -3.9 *** 3.3 *** 69 -4.0 *** 4.8 *** 19 -3.4 ***Diversification index 0.044 *** -0.027 ** 0.046 *** 118 -0.036 ** 0.055 *** 80 -0.042 ** 0.025 38 0.0Mobile lines per 100 people 1.6 *** -1.6 *** 1.8 *** 116 -1.6 *** 2.4 *** 79 -2.1 *** 0.4 37 -0.9 **
Structural Transformation and Technology Adoption
Up breaks Down breaksWorld Emerging and Developing Emerging and Developing no SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
Up breaks Down breaks Up breaks Down breaks Up breaks Down breaksExternal Shocks
Institutions
Social and Human Development
Macro Economic Indicators
Exchange Rate Misalignments and Regimes