Proposal Outline

The Influence of Weather and Climate Eventson

Dust, Smoke and Sulfate Events

R. Husar, PI

Response to EPA STAR RFA

Extreme Event Impacts on Air Quality and Water Quality with a Changing Global Climate

http://epa.gov/ncer/rfa/2011/2011_star_extremeevent.html

Apr 10, 2011

Atmospheric Effects on Air Quality:

•Emissions (Anthropogenic and Natural)•Dispersion (Horizontal and Vertical)•Kinetics (Chem. Reactions & Removal)•All the above depends on climate

Emissions•Anthropogenic

• El. Utility (Temp)• Transportation• Industrial

•Natural• Dust (T,Prec,Wind)• Smoke (T,Prec,Wind)• Biogenic (T)

Source-Receptor•Dispersion (Vertical and Horizontal)

• HiP stagnations (Circ.)• LoP Blockage (Circ)• Loc disp (Wind, MiixH)

•Transformations• Sox Oxidation (T,H)• Sox Removal (Prec)

Events: 1. Continental/Hemispherical 2. Regional

General Framework

Continental/Hemispherical Scale Events

• Continental/Hemispherical Scale Events

• Influenced by global emissions, circulation, precipitation

• AQ – Climate analysis method fro global..????• AQ and Climate Relevance:

• Demonstrate role global climate • Tipping points for Regulations

• Mex Smoke >>> Exceptional Event Rule• Gobi Dust >> Hemispheric Transport Protocol

Continental/Hemispheric Dust Events over the US

Gobi dust in springSahara in summer

US-scale fine dust events are mainly

from intercontinental

transport

Fine Dust Events, 1992-2003ug/m3

Continental/Hemispheric Smoke Events over the US

Stuff-Stuff-Stuff-Stuff-

• Scenario: Smoke form Mexico causes record PM over the Eastern US.

• Goal: Detect smoke emission and predict PM and ozone concentrationSupport air quality management and transportation safety

• Impacts: PM and ozone air quality episodes, AQ standard exceedanceTransportation safety risks due to reduced visibility

• Timeline: Routine satellite monitoring of fire and smokeThe smoke event triggers intensified sensing and analysisThe event is documented for science and management use

• Science/Air Quality Information Needs:Quantitative real-time fire & smoke emission monitoring PM, ozone forecast (3-5 days) based on smoke emissions data

• Information Technology Needs:Real-time access to routine and ad-hoc data and modelsAnalysis tools: browsing, fusion, data/model integrationDelivery of science-based event summary/forecast to air quality and

aviation safety managers and to the public

Record Smoke Impact on PM Concentrations

rhusar@me.wustl.edu, stefan@me.wustl.edu

Smoke Event

Tools for Continental AQ-Climate Analysis

NAAPS-NAAPS-NAAPS-NAAPS-NAAPSNOGAPS-NOGAPS-NOGAPS-NOGAPS-

REGIONAL

• Regional-Scale Events

• Influenced by regional emissions, circulation, precipitation

• AQ – Climate analysis method for regional…??• AQ and Climate Relevance:

• Demonstrate role regional emissions, climate, precipitation

Tools/Methods for for Regional AQ – Climate Analysis

Possible Drought Effect on PM Coarse in South Texas

• The two dust peeks at Big Bend have different Al/Si ratios

• During the year, Al/Si = 0.4 • In July, Al/Si reaches 0.55,

closer to the Al/Si of the Sahara dust (0.65-0.7)

• The spring peak is identified as as ‘Local Dust’, while the July peak is dominated by Sahara dust.

Tools/Methods for Regional AQ-Climate Analysis

Datasets, Info Sharing, Collaboration..

• Other … tangibles and intangibles

Satellite Aerosol Optical Thickness ClimatologySeaWiFS Satellite, Summer 2000 - 2003

• Space-Time-Parameter coverage

• GISS datasets

99 Percentile

60 Percentile

What’s in it for AQ Management and Policy