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Yoder/Fernandez
RESOLUTION NO. 6330
WHEREAS, the Board of Directors has determined it is in the best interest of the
District, its employees, and its customer-owners to establish written policies that describe and
document OPPD’s corporate governance principles and procedures; and
WHEREAS, each policy was evaluated and assigned to the appropriate Board
Committee for oversight of the monitoring process; and
WHEREAS, the Board’s System Management and Nuclear Oversight Committee
(the “Committee”) is responsible for evaluating Board Policy SD-9: Resource Planning on an annual
basis. The Committee has reviewed the 2019 SD-9: Resource Planning Monitoring Report and finds
OPPD to be sufficiently in compliance with the policy as stated.
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the Board of Directors accepts the
2019 SD-9: Resource Planning Monitoring Report, in the form as set forth on Exhibit A attached
hereto and made a part hereof, and finds OPPD to be sufficiently in compliance with the policy as
stated.
Monitoring ReportSD-9: Resource Planning
System Management Committee Report
July 9, 2019
12019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
SD-9 Resource PlanningThe Board of Directors recognizes that the District will have to adapt to the rapidly
changing electric utility business environment. The OPPD resource planning
process will provide the resources and analytical capability to adequately assess
OPPD’s Integrated Resource Portfolio (or Supply and Demand Portfolio) to ensure
reliable, competitive, cost-effective and environmentally sensitive service for our
customers.
To attain this goal, OPPD shall:
• Periodically assess, for strategic and integrated resource plans, OPPD’s mix of
generation assets, demand-side management programs, purchased power
agreements and renewable energy resources.
• Utilize multiple scenarios to properly evaluate the range of risks posed by
varying future assumptions such as, but not limited to fuel costs, economic
growth, regulations and emerging technologies.
• Ensure all integrated resource strategic plans support and align with OPPD’s
Strategic Directives.
22019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
SD-9 Resource PlanningThe Board of Directors recognizes that the District will have to adapt to the rapidly
changing electric utility business environment. The OPPD resource planning
process will provide the resources and analytical capability to adequately assess
OPPD’s Integrated Resource Portfolio (or Supply and Demand Portfolio) to ensure
reliable, competitive, cost-effective and environmentally sensitive service for our
customers.
To attain this goal, OPPD shall:
• Periodically assess, for strategic and integrated resource plans, OPPD’s
mix of generation assets, demand-side management programs,
purchased power agreements and renewable energy resources.
• Utilize multiple scenarios to properly evaluate the range of risks posed by
varying future assumptions such as, but not limited to fuel costs, economic
growth, regulations and emerging technologies.
• Ensure all integrated resource strategic plans support and align with OPPD’s
Strategic Directives.
32019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
2019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
Fundamentals – Load ForecastingProcess Workflow
4
Load Loss
Study
Load Research
Forecast Manager
Energy, Demandand Customer Count Model
System Peak
Models
Marketing/Energy
Marketing &
Trading/T&D/
Hyperion for DSM,Customer/COP
SPP, and EM&T
activities
MV90
Recorder Data
Generation
Production
,
Customer Data
Economic
Weather
EquipmentData
Accrued
Unbilled Price
Forecast/ Other
Models
Process Inputs Output Files
Modeling Tools Outcome Database Systems
Load Loss
Data
Load Research
Data
F&O
Energy &
Peak
Demand
Forecast
MV90
Forecast
Manager
2019 SD-9 Monitoring Report 5
Integrated Resource
Plan
• Legacy Platform (Pre 2018)– A fundamental electric market simulation solution that
incorporates:• Extensive details in generating unit operating characteristics
• Transmission grid topology and constraints
• Market system operations to support economic transmission planning.
• New Platform (2018)– A modern electric modeling forecasting and analysis
software that improves upon the features of the legacy platform.
• Developed to model a dynamic and volatile marketplace (wind and solar modeling, storage integration and long-term expansion)
• Capable of sub-hourly modeling and offers a suite of portfolio optimization capabilities
• Designed to be customizable and reduce time to deliver results
Fundamentals – Dispatch ModelingDispatch Models Continue to evolve
2019 SD-9 Monitoring Report 6
Risk Analysis
OPPD System Load
Forecast
Fuel & Power Price Forecasts
Generation Unit
Parameters
Environmental Regulation
Supply Side Resource Options
Demand Side
Resource Options
Dispatch Modeling
Financial Modeling
Budgeting Software
Organizational Inputs
Budget Targets
Financial Model Output
Gather Inputs
Dispatch Outputs
Stakeholder Outreach
Resource Planning OverviewShort-Term Outlook (0-5 Years)
COP
Process Inputs Output Files
Modeling Tools Outcome
2019 SD-9 Monitoring Report 7
Risk Analysis
OPPD System Load
Forecast
Fuel & Power Price Forecasts
Generation Unit
Parameters
Environmental Regulation
Supply Side Resource Options
Demand Side
Resource Options
Portfolio Optimization
Dispatch Modeling
Financial Modeling
Budgeting Software
Organizational Inputs
Budget Targets
Financial Model Output
Gather Inputs
Dispatch Outputs
Stakeholder Outreach
Long-TermResource
Stakeholder Outreach
Resource Planning OverviewLong-Term Outlook (20 Years)
TransmissionSystem
Planning
Long-Term
Long-Term
Resource
Decision
Process Inputs Additional Analysis Output Files
Modeling Tools Public Outreach Outcome
MTP - 345kV
FCS (502MW)
Grande Prairie
400MWSholes
160MW
North Omaha 1,2&3(291MW)
Walter Scott 1&2 (131MW)
George Neal 1&2(418MW)
Added Gen
Retired/Converted Gen
‘r’ plan - 345kV
New Load
f
NC2664MW
Prairie Breeze
200MW
Missouri River Flood (2011)
• OPPD Joins SPP (2009)
• Prairie Breeze 200MW wind PPA executed (2012)
• Grande Prairie 400MW wind PPA executed (2014)
• North Omaha Station / 300 MW DSM plans publicized (2014)
Rattlesnake300MW
8
• Sholes Energy Center Agreement is Executed (2017)
• Facebook’s Papillion Data Center is Announced (2018)
• Fort Calhoun Ceases Operations (2016)
• NC2 Achieves Commercial Operations (2009)
2019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
• Rattlesnake Wind Facility is Announced (2018)
• Extensive economic development scenario modeling
– Extensive economic modeling to understand potential capacity costs to serve new customers and their potential impact on local power prices, including batteries
– Extensive transmission modeling to understand the impact planned resource decisions and growing load on system resiliency margins
• Review of market trends impacting Variable Energy Resources (VERs)
– A detailed analysis of the changing monetary value of VERs
• Support of AEG Demand Side Management Potentiality Study
– Refreshing assumptions on DSM potential, technologies, and costs for 2019 program review
• Integration with OPPD’s new Alternative Energy Program
– Bringing subject matter expertise on the emerging capabilities of VERs and detailed simulation inputs and costs to improve modeling accuracy
• Ongoing study of growing reliability capabilities of VERs
– Conducting significant investigation into essential reliability services that may be provided by VERs
2019 SD-9 Monitoring Report 9
Periodically assess, for strategic and integrated resource plans, OPPD’s mix of generation assets, demand-side management programs, purchased power agreements and renewable energy resources.
SD-9 Resource PlanningThe Board of Directors recognizes that the District will have to adapt to the rapidly
changing electric utility business environment. The OPPD resource planning
process will provide the resources and analytical capability to adequately assess
OPPD’s Integrated Resource Portfolio (or Supply and Demand Portfolio) to ensure
reliable, competitive, cost-effective and environmentally sensitive service for our
customers.
To attain this goal, OPPD shall:
• Periodically assess, for strategic and integrated resource plans, OPPD’s mix of
generation assets, demand-side management programs, purchased power
agreements and renewable energy resources.
• Utilize multiple scenarios to properly evaluate the range of risks posed by
varying future assumptions such as, but not limited to fuel costs,
economic growth, regulations and emerging technologies.
• Ensure all integrated resource strategic plans support and align with OPPD’s
Strategic Directives.
102019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
2019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
Optimization and Risk AnalysisLong-Term Planning Trends
• The electric industry is evolving at a rapid and
accelerating pace:
– Natural gas fracking
– Decreasing costs of renewables
– Emerging technologies
– Evolving perspective on environmental impacts
• Due to uncertain future environments and outcomes,
flexibility and optionality are highly valuable as the
industry changes.
• Opportunities for tremendous advancement but also
inherent financial and operational risks.
11
2019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
Optimization and Risk AnalysisRisk Accompanying Various Portfolio
• All portfolios have financial and operational risk.
• Operational risk can be mitigated by standards
promulgated by various regulatory bodies as well as
collaboration with transmission and production
operations staff.
• Financial risk can be mitigated by estimating and
avoiding the potential extreme financial outcomes from
some future portfolios using stochastic modeling.
• Reduced financial risk directly contributes to rate stability
and overall OPPD financial health.
12
2019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
Optimization and Risk AnalysisFinancial Risk Accompanying Various Portfolios
13
Fuel Assumptions: Resultant Power Prices:
2019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
Optimization and Risk AnalysisFinancial Risk Accompanying Various Portfolios
14
System Load:
SPP North Wind Penetration:
15
Utilize multiple scenarios to properly evaluate the range of risks posed by varying future assumptions such as, but not limited to fuel costs, economic growth, regulations and emerging technologies.
1. Market Assumptions 2. Portfolio Results 3. Efficient Frontier
• OPPD’s process of risk analysis incorporates extensive use of
stochastic simulation, varying inputs across ranges of potential
outcomes.
2019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
SD-9 Resource PlanningThe Board of Directors recognizes that the District will have to adapt to the rapidly
changing electric utility business environment. The OPPD resource planning
process will provide the resources and analytical capability to adequately assess
OPPD’s Integrated Resource Portfolio (or Supply and Demand Portfolio) to ensure
reliable, competitive, cost-effective and environmentally sensitive service for our
customers.
To attain this goal, OPPD shall:
• Periodically assess, for strategic and integrated resource plans, OPPD’s mix of
generation assets, demand-side management programs, purchased power
agreements and renewable energy resources.
• Utilize multiple scenarios to properly evaluate the range of risks posed by
varying future assumptions such as, but not limited to fuel costs, economic
growth, regulations and emerging technologies.
• Ensure all integrated resource strategic plans support and align with
OPPD’s Strategic Directives.
162019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
Ensure all integrated resource strategic plans support and align with OPPD’s Strategic Directives.
17
• The planning process intentionally captures the competing interests of many strategic directives:
- SD-2: Rates
- SD-4: Reliability
- SD-5: Customer Satisfaction
- SD-7: Environmental Stewardship
- SD-9: Resource Planning
- SD-11: Economic Development
- SD-13: Stakeholder Outreach and Engagement
- SD-15: Enterprise Risk Management
2019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
2019 SD-9 Monitoring Report
• Resource planning is the function to satisfy the competing interests for many strategic directives.
• Whether for short-term or long-term planning, OPPD uses best available data sources from dozens of data sources to derive the primary inputs for modeling.
• A comprehensive team of professionals participate in the review of the inputs each time the process is executed.
• When software and tool upgrades are warranted, OPPD pursues best in class platforms or services.
• Results are thoroughly reviewed using quantitative and visual methods and results are ‘stressed’ via stochastic analysis to estimate the potential financial exposure of various portfolios to reduce the overall financial risk borne by customer-owners.
18
Ensure all integrated resource strategic plans support and align with OPPD’s Strategic Directives.
Recommendation
• The System Management Committee has reviewed
and accepted this Monitoring Report for SD-9 and
recommends that the Board find OPPD to be
sufficiently in compliance with Board Policy SD-9.
192019 SD-9 Monitoring Report