Georges Kunstler – Irstea GrenobleSumforest meeting Barcelona 17-18/10/2017

RESILIENCE MECHANISMS FOR RISK ADAPTED FOREST MANAGEMENT UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

PI Bjoern Reineking

Irstea

Manage for forest resilience

Climate Change Risk for forest product and services

+ Disturbances:- Drought- Storm

High uncertainty for the future of forest ecosystems

=> management promoting forest resilienceto climate change & disturbances

REFORCE GOALS

• enhance the scientific basis for successfully managing forest ecological resilience

• propose climate-resilient management regimes and economic systems

REFORCE approach

Measure resilience

Map resilience

Analyse ecological mechanisms of resilience

Manage resilience

Explore decision-making behaviour for resilience

WP1

WP2

WP3

WP4

WP5

WP1: Multiple measures of resilience

• Concept?- Stability- Engineering resilience- Ecological resilience

• Measures?

• Of what?

• Scale?

=> Provide common working definitions of forest resilience

WP leader Irstea (T. Cordonnier)

WP2: Remote sensing-based mapping of forest resilience

Satellite imagery => time series of vegetation state proxies

at a global scale

Time series analysis –Extraction of stability

metrics

Large scale assessment of forest stability

Variance

Recovery

Resistance

Recovery?Resistance

Variance

NDVI

WP leader KULEUVEN (B Somers, S. Lhermitte, W. De Keersmaecker)

WP2: Comparison with ground data

WP leader KULEUVEN (B. Somers, S. Lhermitte, W. De Keersmaecker)

ICP level I and II plots- Crown defoliation- Growth

Landscape scale (WP4)

Publication of open data on a interactive web-interface

WP3: Mechanisms of short-term resilience to drought

WP leader Irstea & UR (G. Kunstler F. Hartig)

A. Remote sensing Resilience to drought ~ forest structure and functional diversity

A. 4C physiological model => species specific drought response

Resilience

ResistanceNDVI

Drought Ground plots (ICP, NFI)-Functional diversity-Stand structure-Abiotic conditions

WP3: Mechanisms of community long-term resilience

WP leader Irstea & UR (G. Kunstler F. Hartig)

Species composition resilience to Climate Change- We need to dynamics data (NFI data)- Metapopulation models (SPOM)

Climate & Trait-based Competition effects

Resilience

WP4: Risk reduction potential of management

WP leader BOKU (R. Seidl)

Does coordinated risk management in a multi-owner landscape reduce risks and increase resilience, relative to owners taking individualistic decisions?

Hypo: Coordination reducethe spatial spread of disturbances

Hypo_alt: Heterogeneous managementincrease the diversity, and thus fosterresilience

Lower Tatra MtsBucklige

Welt

N Front Range

Stubai-Valley

France

iLand & Flammap models on landscapes covering ecological

and social gradients

WP4: Economical resilience with payment for ES

WP leader BOKU (R. Seidl) UVIGO J. M. Da Rocha, M. L. Chas-Amil, J. G. Cutrín, M. J. Gutierrez

Virtual markets with payment for MARKET

AND NON-MARKET ecosystem services

Dynamic general equilibrium

stochastic models with heterogeneous

agents

Economic resilience

Unexpected shock

WP5: Decision-making behaviour for resilience

WP leader BOKU (M. Lexer)

A. Variable driving determine decision-making behaviour in forest management under conditions of climate change and uncertainty

B. Efficient communication strategies

Risk perception

Semi-structured interviews in

Austria & France

Information availability

Websites

Forestry students

Articles

Manuals

Workshops

Decision support system

Thank youKickoff Meeting Grenoble May 2017