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RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH A REVIEW OF KEY RESIDENTIAL INDICATORS ACROSS MAJOR AUSTRALIAN CITIES

RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH · Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year ending December 2018 (falling 1.8% in the last quarter) to $766,500. Apartment values were down 5.3%

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Page 1: RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH · Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year ending December 2018 (falling 1.8% in the last quarter) to $766,500. Apartment values were down 5.3%

RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

A REVIEW OF KEY RESIDENTIAL INDICATORS ACROSS MAJOR AUSTRALIAN CITIES

Page 2: RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH · Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year ending December 2018 (falling 1.8% in the last quarter) to $766,500. Apartment values were down 5.3%

2

Economic growth was

recorded at 3.4% annual growth

in June 2018. Unemployment

across Australia was 5.0% in the

December 2018 quarter. The

official cash rate target

remained unchanged at 1.50%

on 7 February 2019. In

December 2018 housing

finance annual growth fell 10%.

Annual growth for residential

building approvals was down

5.6% in December 2018.

Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year

ending December 2018 (falling

1.8% in the last quarter) to

$766,500. Apartment values

were down 5.3% over the year

ending December 2018 (falling

2.9% in the last quarter) to

$531,000.

In the year ending December

2018, the volume of house

sales across Australia fell 12.9%

to 299,297; whilst 86,578

apartment sales were recorded

(falling by 24.4%).

Gross rental yields rose 10 bps in the December 2018 quarter

with Australian houses averaging

4.20%; whilst Australian

apartments remained stable at 4.30%.

Australian house rents rose 3.8% to $415 per week in the

year ending December 2018;

whilst apartment rents rose

5.0% to $420 per week.

The weighted average total

residential vacancy for

Australian capital cities was last

recorded at 2.6% in September

2018; down 20 bps over the year.

Knight Frank Residential Research

National Key Economic Indicators

Annual Capital Growth & Gross

Rental Yield & Median Capital Value Greater Capital Cities, Gold Coast LGA & Australia

(excl. Greater Darwin), as at 31 December 2018

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Jun-1

7

Dec-1

7

Jun-1

8

Dec-1

7

Jun-1

8

Dec-1

8

Feb

-18

Aug

-18

Feb

-19

Dec-1

7

Jun-1

8

Dec-1

8

Dec-1

7

Jun-1

8

Dec-1

8

GROSS DOMESTIC

PRODUCT,

ANNUAL GROWTH

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CASH RATE TARGET HOUSING FINANCE,

ANNUAL GROWTH,

BY VALUE

(excl. refinancing)

TOTAL BUILDING

APPROVALS ANNUAL

GROWTH

(houses & apartments)

AU (99)

SYD (70)

MEL (51)

BNE (75)

PER (133)

ADE (88)

CAN (50)

HOB (42)

DAR (131)

GC (91)

AU (101)

SYD (70)

MEL (69)

BNE (127)

PER (144)

ADE (114)

CAN (76)

HOB (33)

DAR (279)

GC (115)

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2.50% 3.50% 4.50% 5.50% 6.50%

APARTMENTS

HOUSES

(X) AVE DAYS ON MARKET

Late 2018 marked four years since APRA

wrote to financial institutions imposing a

restriction in the growth of their loan

book to residential investors. Over the

course of 2014, Australian house prices

had rapidly grown 8.2% and apartments

by 8.0%. It wasn’t until the past year

these restrictions most impacted

Australian house values—trending down

by 6.5% and similarly, apartments falling

by 5.3%. Once driving up price growth,

Sydney and Melbourne are now skewing

the Australian average while in correction

mode, with the median house price falling

by 9.9% and 8.4% respectively.

Looking at the underlying fundamentals,

both markets are continuing to

experience the strongest population

growth for more than 25 years, the lowest

unemployment on record for Sydney (and

the tightest in Melbourne for the past 10

years), whilst the Australian government

has committed more than $75b over the

next 10 years in transport infrastructure

across Australia (in addition to state-

based government projects). There have

certainly been elevated dwelling

completions, but its accessing finance for

investors which continues to challenge

the market. Although this has seen a

welcomed return of first home buyers. As

vendor and developer expectations have

now adjusted, so too will investors in this

new responsible lending environment as

we approach the bottom of the cycle for

these east coast cities.

Page 3: RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH · Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year ending December 2018 (falling 1.8% in the last quarter) to $766,500. Apartment values were down 5.3%

3

RESEARCH

Market Trends in Greater Sydney Over the year ending December 2018,

capital growth decreased 9.9% for

houses; falling 3.2% over the past

quarter to a median value of $1,062,500.

Apartment values fell 5.8% over the past

year, decreasing 3.3% in the last quarter

to a median of $702,000.

The volume of sales tallied 39,439

houses (down 19.5%) and 24,401

apartments (down 29.2%) in the year

ending December 2018.

The average days on market for houses

stood at 70 days in the December 2018

quarter. For apartments this was also 70

days. A year earlier, this comparable

period was recorded at 45 days and 54

days, respectively. The auction clearance rate for the week

ending 10 February 2019 was 54.4% out

of 322 scheduled auctions. This was

higher than the week prior, at 49.5%

from 130 scheduled auctions, but lower

than the comparable week a year earlier

when 61.1% (out of 522 auctions) were

sold.

Gross rental yields remained steady at

3.20% for houses, but rose 10 bps to

3.90% for apartments over the

December 2018 quarter.

Rents fell 1.8% for houses over the year

ending December 2018, and fell 2.8% for

apartments. Weekly median rents stood

at $540 for houses and $530 for

apartments.

Total vacancy was 3.2% as at

December 2018; recording 3.0% in the

Inner Suburbs (0-10km from the CBD),

5.1% in the Middle Suburbs (10-25km)

and 3.3% in the Outer Suburbs (25km+).

Capital Growth, Greater Sydney % annual

Gross Rental Yield & Total Vacancy

Greater Sydney %

Population in Greater Sydney

was estimated at 5.1 million

persons in June 2017,

experiencing annual population

growth of 2.0%. The

population projection is

currently set at 1.6% per annum until 2041.

Unemployment stood at 4.0%

in Greater Sydney as at

December 2018, trending 30 bps lower than recorded in

December 2017.

Gross State Product in New

South Wales (NSW) was recorded at $593,275 million in

2017/18; 2.6% greater than the

prior year.

The value of NSW housing

finance commitments fell by

13.9% in the year ending

December 2018; down from 11.2% recorded for the previous

year.

Building approvals in the year

ending December 2018 totalled 18,041 houses and 29,340

apartments in Greater Sydney.

This was trending 2.7% lower

for houses and 21.1% lower for apartment approvals compared

to a year earlier.

Key Residential Indicators, 31 December 2018

Greater Region Type

Median

Capital Value

($)

Capital

Growth

Last Quarter

(%)

Capital

Growth

Last Year

(%)

Sales

Volume

Last Year

(no.)

Gross

Rental Yield

(%)

Median

Weekly Rent

($)

Average

Days on

Market

(no.)

Sydney Houses 1,062,500 -3.2 -9.9 39,439 3.20 540 70

Sydney Apartments 702,000 -3.3 -5.8 24,401 3.90 530 70

AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL REVIEW Q1 2019

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS VACANCY

Page 4: RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH · Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year ending December 2018 (falling 1.8% in the last quarter) to $766,500. Apartment values were down 5.3%

4

Market Trends in Greater Melbourne Over the year ending December 2018,

capital growth decreased 8.4% for

houses; and fell 2.1% over the past

quarter to a median value of $833,500.

Apartment values fell 4.3% over the year,

and fell 1.8% in the past quarter to a

median of $479,500.

The volume of sales tallied 52,682

houses (down 18.0%) and 16,146

apartments (down 30.1%) in the year

ending December 2018.

The average days on market for houses

stood at 51 days in the December 2018

quarter. For apartments this was 69 days.

A year earlier, this comparable period

was recorded at 41 days and 80 days,

respectively.

The auction clearance rate for the week

ending 10 February 2019 was 52.4% out

of 350 scheduled auctions. This was

higher than the week prior, at 44.3% from

162 scheduled auctions, but lower than

the comparable week a year earlier when

70.7% (out of 619 auctions) were sold.

Gross rental yields were up 10 bps to

3.20% for houses and up 10 bps to

4.40% for apartments over the December

2018 quarter.

Rents for houses increased 3.5% and

2.5% for apartments over the year ending

December 2018. Weekly median rents

stood at $440 for houses and $410 for

apartments.

Total vacancy was 2.2% as at December

2018; recording 2.1% in the Inner

Suburbs (0-10km from the CBD), 3.1% in

the Middle Suburbs (10-25km) and 1.4%

in the Outer Suburbs (25km+).

Capital Growth, Greater Melbourne % annual

Gross Rental Yield & Total Vacancy

Greater Melbourne %

Population in Greater

Melbourne was estimated at 4.8

million persons in June 2017,

experiencing annual population

growth of 2.7%. The

population projection is

currently set at 1.9% per annum until 2041.

Unemployment stood at 4.0%

in Greater Melbourne as at December 2018, trending 190

bps lower than recorded in

December 2017.

Gross State Product in Victoria was recorded at $423,961

million in 2017/18; 3.5% greater

than the prior year.

The value of Victorian housing

finance commitments fell by

6.7% in the year ending

December 2018; down from

14.7% recorded for the previous year.

Building approvals in the year ending December 2018 totalled

28,071 houses and 26,845

apartments in Greater Melbourne. This was trending

3.9% higher for houses but

16.9% lower for apartment

approvals compared to a year earlier.

Key Residential Indicators, 31 December 2018

Greater Region Type

Median

Capital Value

($)

Capital

Growth

Last Quarter

(%)

Capital

Growth

Last Year

(%)

Sales

Volume

Last Year

(no.)

Gross

Rental Yield

(%)

Median

Weekly Rent

($)

Average

Days on

Market

(no.)

Melbourne Houses 833,500 -2.1 -8.4 52,682 3.20 440 51

Melbourne Apartments 479,500 -1.8 -4.3 16,146 4.40 410 69

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS VACANCY

Page 5: RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH · Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year ending December 2018 (falling 1.8% in the last quarter) to $766,500. Apartment values were down 5.3%

5

RESEARCH AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL REVIEW Q1 2019

The auction clearance rate for the week

ending 10 February 2019 was 37.1% out

of 90 scheduled auctions. This was

higher than the week prior, at 28.0% from

55 scheduled auctions, but lower than

the comparable week a year earlier when

45.7% (out of 115 auctions) were sold.

Gross rental yields remained steady to

4.60% for houses and 5.10% apartments

over the December 2018 quarter.

Rents increased 2.5% for houses and

grew 2.7% for apartments over the year

ending December 2018. Weekly median

rents stood at $410 for houses and $380

for apartments.

Total vacancy was 2.5% in the Brisbane

LGA as at December 2018; recording

4.0% in the Inner Suburbs (0-5km from

the CBD), 2.0% in the Middle Suburbs

(5-20km) and 2.0% in the Outer Suburbs

(20km+).

Capital Growth, Greater Brisbane % annual

Gross Rental Yield & Total Vacancy

Greater Brisbane %

Population in Greater Brisbane

was estimated at 2.4 million

persons in June 2017,

experiencing annual population

growth of 2.0%. The

population projection is

currently set at 1.7% per annum until 2041.

Unemployment stood at 5.9%

in Greater Brisbane as at December 2018, trending 90

bps higher than recorded in

December 2017.

Gross State Product in Queensland was recorded at

$339,504 million in 2017/18;

3.4% greater than the prior year.

The value of Queensland

housing finance commitments fell by 8.2% in the year ending

December 2018; down from

0.1% recorded for the previous

year.

Building approvals in the year

ending December 2018 totalled

13,592 houses and 9,591

apartments in Greater Brisbane. This was trending 0.6% lower

for houses and 10.9% lower for

apartment approvals compared to a year earlier.

Key Residential Indicators, 31 December 2018

Greater Region Type

Median

Capital Value

($)

Capital

Growth

Last Quarter

(%)

Capital

Growth

Last Year

(%)

Sales

Volume

Last Year

(no.)

Gross

Rental Yield

(%)

Median

Weekly Rent

($)

Average

Days on

Market

(no.)

Brisbane Houses 566,000 -0.2 -0.1 30,973 4.60 410 75

Brisbane Apartments 370,000 -5.0 -7.9 10,842 5.10 380 127

Market Trends in Greater Brisbane Over the year ending December 2018,

capital growth decreased 0.1% for

houses; and fell 0.2% over the past

quarter to a median value of $566,000.

Apartment values fell 7.9% over the year,

decreasing 5.0% in the past quarter to a

median of $370,000.

The volume of sales tallied 30,973

houses (down 16.5%) and 10,842

apartments (down 21.6%) in the year

ending December 2018.

The average days on market for houses

stood at 75 days in the December 2018

quarter. For apartments this was 127

days. A year earlier, this comparable

period was recorded at a similar 73 days

and 122 days, respectively.

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS VACANCY

Page 6: RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH · Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year ending December 2018 (falling 1.8% in the last quarter) to $766,500. Apartment values were down 5.3%

6

The auction clearance rate for the week

ending 10 February 2019 was 48.1% out

of 36 scheduled auctions. This was

higher than the week prior, at 15.4% from

30 scheduled auctions, and higher than

the comparable week a year earlier when

34.1% (out of 52 auctions) were sold.

Gross rental yields were steady at

4.30% for houses, and rose 20 bps to

4.80% for apartments over the December

2018 quarter.

Rents increased for houses 2.9% and

remained steady for apartments over the

year ending December 2018. Weekly

median rents stood at $360 for houses

and $300 for apartments.

Total vacancy was 2.8% as at December

2018; falling from 5.5% one year earlier.

Capital Growth, Greater Perth % annual

Gross Rental Yield & Total Vacancy

Greater Perth %

Population in Greater Perth was

estimated at 2.1 million persons

in June 2017, experiencing

annual population growth of

1.0%. The population

projection is currently set at

1.6% per annum until 2041.

Unemployment stood at 6.5%

in Greater Perth as at December 2018, trending 60 bps higher

than recorded in December

2017.

Gross State Product in

Western Australia was recorded at $255,883 million in 2017/18;

1.9% greater than the prior year.

The value of Western Australian

housing finance commitments

fell by 13.4% in the year ending December 2018; down from

–4.0% recorded for the

previous year.

Building approvals in the year

ending December 2018 totalled

10,551 houses and 3,365

apartments in Greater Perth. This was trending 9.5% lower

for houses and 35.1% lower for

apartment approvals compared to a year earlier.

Key Residential Indicators, 31 December 2018

Greater Region Type

Median

Capital Value

($)

Capital

Growth

Last Quarter

(%)

Capital

Growth

Last Year

(%)

Sales

Volume

Last Year

(no.)

Gross

Rental Yield

(%)

Median

Weekly Rent

($)

Average

Days on

Market

(no.)

Perth Houses 546,500 0.0 -3.3 26,255 4.30 360 133

Perth Apartments 352,000 -3.1 -2.9 3,113 4.80 300 144

Market Trends in Greater Perth Over the year ending December 2018,

capital growth decreased 3.3% for

houses but remaining stable over the

past quarter to a median value of

$546,500. Over this year, apartment

values decreased 2.9%, falling 3.1% in

the past quarter to a median of $352,000.

The volume of sales tallied 26,255

houses (down 10.3%) and 3,113

apartments (down 17.3%) in the year

ending December 2018.

The average days on market for houses

stood at 133 days in the December 2018

quarter. For apartments this was 144

days. A year earlier, this comparable

period was recorded at 114 days and 131

days, respectively.

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

5.50%

6.00%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS VACANCY

Page 7: RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH · Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year ending December 2018 (falling 1.8% in the last quarter) to $766,500. Apartment values were down 5.3%

7

RESEARCH AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL REVIEW Q1 2019

Market Trends in Gold Coast LGA Over the year ending December 2018,

capital growth increased 0.2% for

houses; but remained steady over the

past quarter to a median value of

$620,000.

Apartment values rose 1.2% over the

year, but remained steady in the past

quarter to a median of $425,000.

The volume of sales tallied 8,931 houses

(falling by 8.1%) and 7,810 apartments

(down 9.1%) in the year ending

December 2018.

The average days on market for houses

stood at 91 days in the December 2018

quarter. For apartments this was 115

days. A year earlier, this comparable

period was recorded at 72 days and 98

days, respectively.

Gross rental yields rose 10bps to 4.90%

for houses, but remained steady at

5.80% for apartments over the December

2018 quarter.

Rents increased 4.2% for houses and

rose 3.7% for apartments over the year

ending December 2018. Weekly median

rents stood at $500 for houses and $425

for apartments.

Total vacancy was 4.8% as at

December 2018 up from 1.1% one year

earlier.

Capital Growth, Gold Coast LGA % annual

Gross Rental Yield & Total Vacancy

Gold Coast LGA %

Population in the Gold Coast

LGA was estimated at 576,900

persons in June 2017,

experiencing annual population

growth of 2.4%. The

population projection is

currently set at 2.1% per annum until 2041.

Unemployment stood at 4.3%

for the Gold Coast LGA as at September 2018, trending 50

bps lower than recorded a year

earlier.

Gross State Product in Queensland was recorded at

$339,504 million in 2017/18;

3.4% greater than the prior year.

The value of Queensland

housing finance commitments

fell by 8.2% in the year ending

December 2018; down from

0.1% recorded for the previous year.

Building approvals in the year

ending December 2018 totalled

2,534 houses and 3,481 apartments in the Gold Coast

LGA.

Key Residential Indicators, 31 December 2018

LGA Type

Median

Capital Value

($)

Capital

Growth

Last Quarter

(%)

Capital

Growth

Last Year

(%)

Sales

Volume

Last Year

(no.)

Gross

Rental Yield

(%)

Median

Weekly Rent

($)

Average

Days on

Market

(no.)

Gold Coast Houses 620,000 0.0 0.2 8,931 4.90 500 91

Gold Coast Apartments 425,000 0.0 1.2 7,810 5.80 425 115

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS VACANCY

Page 8: RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH · Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year ending December 2018 (falling 1.8% in the last quarter) to $766,500. Apartment values were down 5.3%

8

Market Trends in Greater Adelaide Over the year ending December 2018,

capital growth increased 1.7% for

houses; and rose 0.1% over the past

quarter to a median value of $538,000.

Apartments increased 0.7% over the

year, and rose 2.4% in the past quarter to

a median of $321,500.

The volume of sales tallied 19,349

houses (up 0.8%) and 3,940 apartments

(down 3.5%) in the year ending

December 2018.

The average days on market for houses

stood at 88 days in the December 2018

quarter. For apartments this was 114

days. A year earlier, this comparable

period was recorded at 90 days and 128

days, respectively.

The auction clearance rate for the week

ending 10 February 2019 was 46.9% out

of 79 scheduled auctions. This was

higher than the week prior, at 43.6% from

111 scheduled auctions, but lower than

the comparable week a year earlier when

67.1% (out of 78 auctions) were sold.

Gross rental yields remained steady at

4.50% for houses, but rose 10 bps to

5.30% for apartments over the December

2018 quarter.

Rents increased 2.7% for houses and

rose 5.1% for apartments over the year

ending December 2018. Weekly median

rents stood at $380 for houses and $310

for apartments.

Capital Growth, Greater Adelaide % annual

Gross Rental Yield

Greater Adelaide %

Population in Greater Adelaide

was estimated at 1.3 million

persons in June 2017,

experiencing annual population

growth of 0.7%. The

population projection is

currently set at 0.8% per annum until 2041.

Unemployment stood at 6.0%

in Greater Adelaide as at December 2018, trending 10

bps higher than recorded in

December 2017.

Gross State Product in South Australia was recorded at

$106,004 million in 2017/18;

2.0% greater than the prior year.

The value of South Australian

housing finance commitments

fell by 3.4% in the year ending December 2018; down from

1.0% recorded for the

previous year.

Building approvals in the year

ending December 2018 totalled

6,380 houses and 3,894

apartments in Greater Adelaide. This was trending 3.1% lower

for houses and 0.8% lower for

apartment approvals compared to a year earlier.

Key Residential Indicators, 31 December 2018

Greater Region Type

Median

Capital Value

($)

Capital

Growth

Last Quarter

(%)

Capital

Growth

Last Year

(%)

Sales

Volume

Last Year

(no.)

Gross

Rental Yield

(%)

Median

Weekly Rent

($)

Average

Days on

Market

(no.)

Adelaide Houses 538,000 0.1 1.7 19,349 4.50 380 88

Adelaide Apartments 321,500 2.4 0.7 3,940 5.30 310 114

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

5.50%

6.00%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS

Page 9: RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH · Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year ending December 2018 (falling 1.8% in the last quarter) to $766,500. Apartment values were down 5.3%

9

RESEARCH AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL REVIEW Q1 2019

Market Trends in Canberra Over the year ending December 2018,

capital growth remained steady for

houses; and slightly increased by 0.1%

over the past quarter to a median value

of $739,000. Apartment values fell 6.1%

over the year, falling 3.6% in the past

quarter to a median of $412,500.

The volume of sales tallied 4,925 houses

(down 12.3%) and 3,874 apartments

(down 19.7%) in the year ending

December 2018.

The average days on market for houses

stood at 50 days in the December 2018

quarter. For apartments this was 76 days.

A year earlier, this comparable period

was recorded similar at 50 days and 79

days, respectively.

The auction clearance rate for the week

ending 10 February 2019 was 55.3% out

of 44 scheduled auctions. This was

higher than the week prior, at 46.2% from

43 scheduled auctions, and lower than

the comparable week a year earlier when

70.1 (out of 73 auctions) were sold.

Gross rental yields rose 10bps to 4.40%

for houses, but remained steady at

6.00% for apartments over the December

2018 quarter.

Rents increased 3.7% for houses and

rose 8.1% for apartments over the year

ending December 2018. Weekly median

rents stood at $560 for houses and $465

for apartments.

Total vacancy was a tight 0.6% as at

September 2018; falling from 0.7% one

year earlier.

Capital Growth, Canberra % annual

Gross Rental Yield & Total Vacancy

Canberra %

Population in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) was

estimated at 410,300 persons in

June 2017, experiencing annual

population growth of 1.7%.

The population projection is

currently set at 1.5% per annum

until 2041.

Unemployment stood at 3.8%

in the ACT as at December 2018, trending 10 bps lower

than recorded in December

2017.

Gross State Product in the ACT was recorded at $39,442

million in 2017/18; 4.0% greater

than the prior year.

The value of ACT housing

finance commitments fell by 1.5% in the year ending

December 2018; down from

16.2% recorded for the previous

year.

Building approvals in the year

ending December 2018 totalled

1,372 houses and 5,773

apartments in the ACT. This was trending 42.6% higher for

houses and 70.5% higher for

apartment approvals compared to a year earlier.

Key Residential Indicators, 31 December 2018

Greater Region Type

Median

Capital Value

($)

Capital

Growth

Last Quarter

(%)

Capital

Growth

Last Year

(%)

Sales

Volume

Last Year

(no.)

Gross

Rental Yield

(%)

Median

Weekly Rent

($)

Average

Days on

Market

(no.)

Canberra Houses 739,000 0.1 0.0 4,924 4.40 560 50

Canberra Apartments 412,500 -3.6 -6.1 3,874 6.00 465 76

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS VACANCY

Page 10: RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH · Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year ending December 2018 (falling 1.8% in the last quarter) to $766,500. Apartment values were down 5.3%

10

Market Trends in Greater Hobart Over the year ending December 2018,

capital growth increased 8.8% for

houses; rising 2.7% over the past quarter

to a median value of $479,500.

Apartment values fell 3.5% over the year,

falling 2.6% in the past quarter, to a

median of $343,000.

The volume of sales tallied 3,758 houses

(down 13.9%) and 651 apartments (down

19.7%) in the year ending December

2018.

The average days on market for houses

stood at 42 days in the December 2018

quarter. For apartments this was 33 days.

A year earlier, this comparable period

was recorded at 49 days and 30 days,

respectively.

The auction clearance rate for the week

ending 10 February 2019 was 0% out of

7 scheduled auctions. This was lower

than the week prior, at 100% from 5

scheduled auctions, and lower than the

comparable week a year earlier when

55.6% (out of 11 auctions) were sold.

Gross rental yields were up 20 bps to

5.10% for houses, and up 20 bps to

4.90% for apartments over the December

2018 quarter.

Rents increased 6.3% for houses and

rose 11.8% for apartments over the year

ending December 2018. Weekly median

rents stood at $420 for houses and $380

for apartments.

Total vacancy was 1.5% as at

September 2018; falling from 1.7% one

year earlier.

Capital Growth, Greater Hobart % annual

Gross Rental Yield & Total Vacancy

Greater Hobart %

Population in Greater Hobart

was estimated at 226,900

persons in June 2017,

experiencing annual population

growth of 1.1%. The

population projection is

currently set at 0.9% per annum until 2041.

Unemployment stood at 6.6%

in Greater Hobart as at December 2018, trending 60

bps higher than recorded in

December 2017.

Gross State Product in Tasmania was recorded at

$30,266 million in 2017/18;

3.3% greater than the prior year.

The value of Tasmanian

housing finance commitments

rose by 7.4% in the year ending December 2018, this was down

from 13.2% recorded for the

previous year.

Building approvals in the year

ending December 2018 totalled

1,412 houses and 147

apartments in Greater Hobart. This was trending 51.7% higher

for houses, but 61.7% lower for

apartment approvals compared to a year earlier.

Key Residential Indicators, 31 December 2018

Greater Region Type

Median

Capital Value

($)

Capital

Growth

Last Quarter

(%)

Capital

Growth

Last Year

(%)

Sales

Volume

Last Year

(no.)

Gross

Rental Yield

(%)

Median

Weekly Rent

($)

Average

Days on

Market

(no.)

Hobart Houses 479,500 2.7 8.8 3,758 5.10 420 42

Hobart Apartments 343,000 -2.6 -3.5 651 4.90 380 33

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS VACANCY

Page 11: RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH · Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year ending December 2018 (falling 1.8% in the last quarter) to $766,500. Apartment values were down 5.3%

11

RESEARCH AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL REVIEW Q1 2019

The auction clearance rate for the week

ending 10 February 2019 was 0% out of

2 scheduled auctions. This was lower

than the week prior, at 100% (from 2

scheduled auctions) and lower than the

comparable week a year earlier when

33.0% (out of 8 auctions) were sold.

Gross rental yields were down 10 bps

to 4.80% for houses, and down 10 bps

to 6.00% for apartments over the

December 2018 quarter.

Rents decreased 9.1% for houses and

fell 3.6% for apartments over the year

ending December 2018. Weekly median

rents stood at $500 for houses and $400

for apartments.

Total vacancy was 7.9% as at

September 2018; increasing from 5.9%

one year earlier.

Capital Growth, Greater Darwin % annual

Gross Rental Yield & Total Vacancy

Greater Darwin %

Population in Greater Darwin

was estimated at 146,600

persons in June 2017,

experiencing annual population

growth of 0.5%. The

population projection is

currently set at 1.8% per annum until 2041.

Unemployment stood at 4.4%

in Greater Darwin as at December 2018, trending 50

bps lower than recorded in

December 2017.

Gross State Product in the Northern Territory was recorded

at $26,200 million in 2017/18;

1.7% greater than the prior year.

The value of Northern Territory

housing finance commitments

fell by 13.9% in the year ending December 2018, down from the

–6.6% recorded for the previous

year.

Building approvals in the year

ending December 2018 totalled

452 houses and 31 apartments

in Greater Darwin. This was trending 4.6% higher for houses

but 67.7% lower for apartment

approvals compared to a year earlier.

Key Residential Indicators, 31 December 2018

Greater Region Type

Median

Capital Value

($)

Capital

Growth

Last Quarter

(%)

Capital

Growth

Last Year

(%)

Sales

Volume

Last Year

(no.)

Gross

Rental Yield

(%)

Median

Weekly Rent

($)

Average

Days on

Market

(no.)

Darwin Houses 515,000 -0.4 -8.7 662 4.80 500 131

Darwin Apartments 322,000 -0.3 -13.0 410 6.00 400 279

Market Trends in Greater Darwin Over the year ending December 2018,

capital growth decreased 8.7% for

houses; falling 0.4% in the past quarter

to a median value of $515,000.

Apartment values fell 13.0% over the

year, and fell 0.3% in the past quarter to

a median of $322,000.

The volume of sales tallied 662 houses

(up 7.8%) and 410 apartments (down

25.7%) in the year ending December

2018.

The average days on market for houses

stood at 131 days in the December 2018

quarter. For apartments this was 279

days. A year earlier, this comparable

period was recorded at 142 days and 293

days, respectively.

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep

-16

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep

-17

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep

-18

Dec-1

8

HOUSES APARTMENTS VACANCY

Page 12: RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH · Australian median house values were down 6.5% in the year ending December 2018 (falling 1.8% in the last quarter) to $766,500. Apartment values were down 5.3%

Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com.au/Research

RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

Michelle Ciesielski

Director, Residential Research, Australia

+61 2 9036 6659

[email protected]

Ben Burston

Partner, Head of Research & Consulting,

Australia

+61 2 9036 6756

[email protected]

RESIDENTIAL

SALES, PROJECT MARKETING &

PROPERTY MANAGEMENT

Sarah Harding

Partner, Head of Residential, Australia

+61 2 9036 6752

[email protected]

RESIDENTIAL SITE SALES

Paul Henley

Partner, Head of Commercial Sales,

Australia

+61 3 9604 4760 [email protected]

RESIDENTIAL VALUATION &

ADVISORY

Chris Hill

Partner, Head of Residential Valuation

and Advisory, Australia

+61 438 807 249

[email protected]

MEDIA ENQUIRIES

Rebecca Sands

Director, PR & Communications,

Australia

+61 2 9036 6833

[email protected]

Knight Frank Residential Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and

forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide including developers, investors,

funding organisations, corporate institutions and the public sector. All our clients

recognise the need for expert independent advice customised to their specific needs.

Important Notice

© Knight Frank Australia Pty Ltd 2019 –

This report is published for general information only and not

to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have

been used in the preparation of the information, analysis,

views and projections presented in this report, no

responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by

Knight Frank Australia Pty Ltd for any loss or damage

resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the

contents of this document. As a general report, this material

does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank

Australia Pty Ltd in relation to particular properties or

projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is

not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank

Australia Pty Ltd to the form and content within which it

appears.

Global Residential

Cities Index Q3 2018 Focus On Perth

Q1 2019

Global House Price

Index Q3 2018

Global Waterfront

Report 2019

Capital Growth, Houses, Key Regional Local Government Areas % annual, as at 31 December 2018

Note: Unless stated, all references to dollars or $ refer to Australian dollars (AUD).

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

WOLLONGONG, NSW

CAIRNS, QLD

TOWNSVILLE, QLD

ROCKHAMPTON, QLD

TOOWOOMBA, QLD

GLADSTONE, QLD

SHELLHARBOUR, NSW

WAGGA WAGGA, NSW

LAKE MACQUARIE, NSW

MACKAY, QLD

SUNSHINE COAST, QLD

KIAMA, NSW

NEWCASTLE, NSW

LAUNCESTON, TAS

GREATER GEELONG, VIC

Focus On Melbourne

Q1 2019 Focus On Sydney

Q1 2019

Focus On Brisbane

Q1 2019

Focus On Gold Coast

Q1 2019