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Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
1
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
MARKET OF KIEV OVERVIEW:
2016 year's results
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
2
262,3
266,1
271,9
273,1
273,5
276,6
279,2
287,9
297,3
413,8
416,5
419,4
420,3
424,4
427,2
431
436,6
442,8
290,9
293
296,6
297,3
300,6
303,3
305,3
309,3
312,4
1.010 1.020
1.034 1.038 1.047
1.057 1.066
1.085
1.112
940
960
980
1.000
1.020
1.040
1.060
1.080
1.100
1.120
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1 room - 1 2 rooms - 2
3 rooms - 3 Total apartments -
57,0
58,0
59,0 59,7
60,6
61,6 62,2
62,7
64,9
20,5 20,6
20,9 21 21
21,3 21,3
22,0 22,6
20
21
22
23
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
mln m2
Total residential accommodations - , mln. m2
m2 for each citizen - 2
Cumulative residential accommodations in Kyiv city
Cumulative residential accommodations On the early 2016 according to the consolidated data of the Statistics
Department of Kyiv city counsil and State Statistic Service of Ukraine,
overall residential accommodations were 64,9 mill. sq.m. Therefore 22,6 sq.m. of residential accommodation is per capita ratio
for each permanent resident of the Capital.
Total residential accommodations of Kyiv city and calculated per each citizen, sq.m.
Number of apartments According to the consolidated data of the Main Department of
Statistics of Kyiv city at the beginning of 2016 in the Capital, there were
1,112,100 apartments. Total residential accommodations of the Capital is formed by: One-room apartments 297,3 thousand (26,7%); Two-room 442,8 thousand (39,8%); Three-room apartment 311,1 thousand (28,1%); Four and more rooms apartment - 49,9 thousand (4,5%).
Total number of apartments in Kyiv city
and by number of rooms, thousand pcs
Sources: UTG,
Statistics Department of Kyiv city council
Sources: UTG
State Statistic Service of Ukraine
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
3
138,1
341,0
851,0
1.5
14,7
306,3
726,5
1.1
37,5
1.7
27,0
309,7
675,8
1.0
66,5
1.8
63,8
361,9
637,6
1.1
76,9
2.0
51,0
179
,1
507
,4
943
,1
1.5
09
,0
182
,0
391
,3
603
,3
1.4
42
,4
215
,1
450
,1
753
,2
1.3
65,8
128
,7
293
,5
699
,6
1.3
34
,0 -46,3% -25,5%
21,5% 29,8%
121,8% 113,1%
33,7% 14,0%
1,1%
-7,0% -6,2%
7,9%
16,9% -5,7%
10,3% 10,0%
0,2% -7,9%
1,5% 0,4% 1,6% -22,9% -36,0%
-4,4%
18,2% 15,0%
24,8%
-5,3% -40,2% -34,8%
-7,1% -2,3%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
1Q
2014
2Q
2014
3Q
2014
4Q
2014
1Q
2015
2Q
2015
3Q
2015
4Q
2015
1Q
2016
2Q
2016
3Q
2016
4Q
2016
x1000 2
. - Kiev Region, thousand m2 - Kiev , thousand m2
( ) - YoY growth (Region),% ( ) - YoY growth (Kiev),%
Volume of commissioned accommodations in Kyiv city and Kyiv region
Commissioned accommodations At the end of 2016 the volume of commissioned residential accommodations in
Kyiv city and Kyiv region totally was 3,384,954 sq.m. and was increased compared with 2015 by +4,8% in related or by +155 330 sq.m. in absolute value and hit a new record. The increase of cumulative offers was realized by the commissioned accommodations in Kyiv region (by +187 123 sq.m. or +10,0%) with a slight decrease of the volume of building construction in Kyiv (by -31 793 sq.m. or -2,3%).
The 2015 hits also a record - of the total volume of housing in new buildings in Kyiv and the Kyiv region, it hits 3.23 mln. sq.m. (in 2014 = 3,169,000 sq.m. in 2013 = 3,024,000 sq.m.) In the structure of the offer in 2015 the share of Kyiv city was 1.37 mln.sq.m.; Kyiv region – 1.86 miln.sq.m..
Volume of the commissioned accommodations in Kyiv city and Kyiv region in the dynamics 2012-2016 (quarterly), thousand. sq.m., %
Year Kyiv, sq.m. Kyiv region,
sq.m. Kyiv and Kyiv region, sq.m.
2011 1 501 453 1 050 020 2 551 473
2012 1 503 439 1 167 163 2 670 602
2013 1 509 049 1 514 683 3 023 732
2014 1 442 391 1 727 027 3 169 418
2015 1 365 796 1 863 828 3 229 624
2016 1 334 003 2 050 951 3 384 954
Volume of commissioned accommodations in Kyiv city and Kyiv region in 2012-2016, sq.m.
Sources: UTG,
Statistics Department of Kyiv city council
Statistics Department of Kyiv Region
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
4
271 389
278 183
279 297
147
100
102
25
70 37
62
259
215
220
134 39
239
112
239
275 304
216
40
72 154
56
167 355
161 89
134
148
67
68 78 65
73
44
140 81 96
146
64
60
83 65 65
106 82
315
96 187 206
223 75 119
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
х1000 2
Shevchenkovskiy ( ) Solomianskiy ( ) Svyatoshinskiy ( ) Podolskiy ( j ) Pecherskiy ( ) Obolonskiy ( ) Holosiivskyi ( ee ) Dneprovskiy ( e ) Desnianskiy ( ) Darnytskiy ( )
Commissioned accommodations by the districts of Kyiv city The structure the commissioned accommodations in Kyiv city, in
retrospect, is traditionally characterized by a proportion of 35-40% for the left bank of Dnepr river and 60-65% for the right bank.
On 2012, the primary housing market showed a parity rate 49.7% to 50.3% for both of the banks of the river due to the high rates of construction in Darnytskiy and Dneprovskiy districts.
In the recent years we can see a tend to reduction of the offers on the left-bank of Kyiv in the total structure in the favor of the right bank due to the appearance here more affordable offers and the reduction of the price difference.
Structure of the commissioned accommodations in the administrative districts of Kyiv
In particular, by the results of 2013 the share of new buildings in
Darnitskiy, Desnianskiy and Dreprovskiy districts was reduced to 39.4% in 2014 - to 29.7% and by the results 2016 was 28.0%
In the structure of the commissioned accommodations in 2016
Solomenskiy (23.6%); Darnitskiy (22.3%); Holosiivskyi (16.2%); Podolsky (12.9%) and Shevchenkivskiy (8.9%) districts of the Capital are dominating.
The smallest amount of offers are typical for the next Kyiv districts: Obolonskiy (0.9%); Desnyanskiy (2.8%); Dniprovskiy (2.9%) and Svyatoshinskiy (4.5%).
68,0% 50,3% 60,6% 70,3%
64,7% 72,0%
32,0% 49,7% 39,4% 29,7% 35,3%
Right Bank
Left Bank
Structure of commissioned accommodations by the administrative districts of Kyiv city in the dynamics 2011-2016, thousand sq.m.
28,0%
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
5
At the same time, according to the results of 2015 compared to
2010 it was a redistribution of the structure of residential buildings by a hight to the reduction the share of 1-2 storey buildings (from 21.5% to 5.2%) in favor of the increase of 6-12 storey buildings (from 1,8 % to 17.7%).
The largest value in the structure occupies a category of buildings of 16 storey and higher, which dynamics is really not changed (71-79%).
Structure of the commissioned accommodations in Kyiv city by buildings stroyes, thousand, sq.m.
The structure of the offer in Kyiv city
The dynamics of the structure of the commissioned accommodations in Kyiv shows a reduction in the share of the private sector from 15.6% in 2011 to 5.2% in the first half of 2016 and a corresponding increase of the share of multi-storey apartment buildings - from 83,7% to 94,8%.
Structure of the commissioned accommodations in Kyiv city by types of buildings, thousand, sq.m.
Volume of the commissioned accommodations in Kyiv city by number of storeys
15,6% 22,8%
10,1% 7,1% 5,7% 5,2%
83,7% 77,1%
89,1% 92,5% 94,2% 94,8%
0,7% 0,0% 0,8% 0,4% 0,2%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2Q 2016
Private houses ( ) Multi-storey housing ( ) Dormitories ( )
42 63 50 45 21 35 22
61 90
45 42 46 39
7
335
752
222
864
264
716
211
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1 2013 2 2013 1 2014 2 2014 1 2015 2 2015 1 2016
x1
00
0
2
1-2 storey (1-2 ) 3-5 storey (3-5 ) 6-8 storey (6-8 )
9-12 storey (9-12 ) 13-15 storey (13-15 ) 16 and more (16 )
Sources: UTG,
Statistics Department of Kyiv city council
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
6
1-room 35%
2-room 32%
3 -room 25%
4-room 5%
5 and more rooms
3%
1-room 53%
2-room 30%
3-room 16%
4-room 1% 5 and more
rooms 0%
Structure of commissioned accommodations in Kyiv city by area of the apartments and the number of rooms
Distribution by the number of rooms in Kyiv
Typical for Slavic people necessity of ownership of proper accommodation with respect to reduction consumer purchasing power causes change of the structure of the commissioned housing on the
market offer of the primary property. In particular, the overall structure is typical trend to reduction of total
area. Thus, since 2011, the average total area of apartments dropped
down from 92.9 sq.m. to 76.2 sq.m. in 2013 and to 64.7 sq.m. by the end of 2016.
Area reduction is due to the optimization of the offers: the increase of
the number of one-room apartments (from 35.3% in 2011 to 52.9% in
2016), a stable share of two-room (31.7% in 2011 and 29.4% in 2016) and the reduction of the offer of three-room (from 25.2 % in 2011 to 15.6% in 2016), and more room apartments.
Despite the decrease in the volume of the commissioned area, the
result of 2016 hit a new record for the number of commissioned apartments - 20 265.
Number of rooms / Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Apartments, number
Average area, sq.m.
Apartments, number
Average area, sq.m.
Apartment, number
Average area, sq.m.
Apartment, number
Average area, sq.m.
Apartment, number
Average area, sq.m.
Apartment, number
Average area, sq.m.
1-room 5 486 50,7 6 266 51,5 8 600 47,8 8 732 47,2 9 322 47,1 10 728 45,7
2-room 4 918 80,1 5 629 75,7 5 955 74,9 5 596 73,7 6 157 72,9 5 949 72
3-room 3 913 114 4 033 103,5 3 580 104,4 4 048 104 3 061 100,9 3 155 97,1
4-room 717 184 494 170 743 167 447 191,8 282 149,3 253 140,4
5 and more rooms 500 386 543 360,3 213 467,6 190 417,1 120 333,6 83 363,6
Total: 15 534 92,9 16 965 85,2 19 091 76,2 19 048 74,5 19 091 68,6 20 265 64,7
Structure of commissioned apartments in Kyiv city by the number of rooms and the average area of the apartments in the dynamics 2011-2016, pc, sq.m.
Structure of the commissioned apartments in Kyiv city by the number of rooms,%
2011 2016
Sources: UTG,
Statistics Department of Kyiv city council
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
7
The cost of housing construction in the regions of Ukraine
Ministry of Regional Development, Building and Housing Support by order № 283 from October 24, 2016 has approved and recommended for implementation annual forecast of average indirect cost of construction of
housing in the regions of Ukraine, as of October 01, 2016. The indicators do not include: the prise of the land; costs associated with additional technical and economic conditions of the regions. Forecast average annual indicators of indirect cost of housing construction in the regions of Ukraine
for 2014-2016 (including VAT), in UAH Sources: UTG,
The Ministry of Regional Development of Ukraine
Region
Price of 1 sq.m. of the total area of the building
2014 2015 2016 October
2016
Ukraine* 5 515 6 287 8 481 8 848
Vinnytsia region 5 289 6 057 8 219 8 584
Volyn region 5 284 6 048 8 206 8 563
Dnipropetrovsk region 5 332 6 102 8 278 8 637
Donetsk region 5 757 6 593 8 947 9 349
Zhytomyr region 4 776 5 472 7 444 7 796
Zakarpattia region 4 751 5 444 7 389 7 724
Zaporizhzhia region 5 301 6 077 8 221 8 623
Ivano-Frankivsk region 4 904 5 623 7 643 7 991
Kyiv region 5 400 6 194 8 538 8 898
Kirovohrad region 4 728 5 396 7 337 7 597
Luhansk region 5 261 6 025 8 186 8 539
Lviv region 5 381 6 178 8 394 8 817
Region
Price of 1 sq.m. of the total area of the building
2014 2015 2016 October
2016
Mykolaiv region 5 271 6 087 8 324 8 792
Odesa region 5 324 6 087 8 260 8 566
Poltava region 5 027 5 723 7 743 7 986
Rivne region 5 598 6 369 8 612 8 852
Sumy region 5 114 5 864 7 964 8 333
Ternopil region 5 120 5 869 7 977 8 334
Kharkiv region 5 724 6 566 8 926 9 338
Kherson region 4 996 5 720 7 772 8 102
Khmelnytskyi region 5 374 6 128 8 307 8 605
Cherkasy region 5 382 6 169 8 385 8 759
Chernivtsi region 5 048 5 788 7 867 8 226
Chernihiv region 5 167 5 992 8 212 8 758
Kyiv 6 419 7 350 9 986 10 409
The indicators taken into account for the cost of housing construction: general building construction works on on building in total; arranging in a housing building of engineering systems; installation engineering, electro-mechanical and other equipment; works for the improvement and construction of intra-site engineering nets; the costs of the design, project approval and construction arrangement; profit, taxes, fees and mandatory payments established by the legislation.
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
8
The offer price on primary market of the residential real estate in Kyiv
The offer price of apartments on the primary market The average price of 1 sq.m. on the primary real estate market of
nominated in UAH at early February 2017 is 23,275 UAH and during the year increased by +522 UAH (or +2.3%) due to exchange of the exchange rate of USD to UAH, and the nominated the price in US dollars was $911 for 1 sq.m. and drop down for the year - $ 42, in absolute terms (or -4.4% in relative terms).
Offer prices in new buildings in the districts of Kyiv city
On January, 2017 UAH for 1sq.m. (1 USD = 27 UAH)
The offer price of the primary market for classes Due to the devaluation of the national currency and the periodic
fluctuations developers in the Capital refused to bind the future value of the hryvnia (UAH), and modified the conditions of payment by installments, making it a percentage or increasing the price of 1sq.m., depending on the size of the first payment, but are ready to consider an individual and offer seasonal discounts, what stimulate full payment of the price of an apartment at their own expenses.
In terms of class on the primary market the average prices at the early 2017 are as follows: in the class «Econom» = 16,596 UAH (or $ 649) for 1sq.m., in class «Comfort» = 27,885 UAH (or $1,091) for 1sq.m., in class «Business» = 43,986 UAH (or $1,721) for 1 sq.m.
The average price offers of apartments by classes on the primary
market in the years of 2011-2016, UAH for 1 sq.m.
1 2 "Э "
1 2 " "
1 2 "
"Э ", %
" ", %
", %
Sources:
UTG,
Portal www.lun.ua
1 2015 1 2016 1 2 "Э " 1 2 " " 1 2 " "Э ", %
" ", % ", %
9.8
55
9.8
24
9.9
86
9.8
29
11.3
98
16.8
73
16.5
96
14.0
59
15.2
10
15.4
18
15.2
28
19.5
23
26.5
82
27.8
85
21.6
57
21.2
03
21.1
33
22.0
74
28.1
28
38.6
39
43.9
86
$1.238 $1.230 $1.249 $1.230
$723 $706 $649
$1.766 $1.904 $1.929 $1.906
$1.238 $1.113 $1.091
$2.720 $2.654 $2.644 $2.763
$1.784 $1.618
$1.721
$0
$500
$1.000
$1.500
$2.000
$2.500
$3.000
0 UAH
5.000 UAH
10.000 UAH
15.000 UAH
20.000 UAH
25.000 UAH
30.000 UAH
35.000 UAH
40.000 UAH
45.000 UAH
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1 2 in "Econom" class, UAH 1 2 in "Comfort" class, UAH
1 2 in "Business" class, UAH 1 2 in "Econom" class, $
1 2 in "Comfort" class, $ 1 2 in "Business" class, $
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
9
Offer price of apartments by districts
The most expensive districts traditionally are Pecherskiy ($2,089 or
58,071 UAH) and Shevchenkovskiy ($1,743 or 44,580 UAH), which are
characterized, in addition, by the slowest lowering of prices (-7.9% and
-8.8% respectively for the year ).
The cheapest districts of the Capital are: Desnyanskiy (-10.9% to $869);
Svyatoshinskiy (-12.7% to $1007); Dniprovskiy (-12.4% to $1043) and
Darnytskiy (-11.0% to $1045).
Offer price of apartments on the secondary market
of Kyiv districts, in USD for 1sq.m
.
Offer price on the secondary market The dominant currency on the secondary real estate market in Ukraine
is US dollar and the offer is nominated / linked to this currency. During the period of devaluation of the UAH (early 2014 and the whole 2015) the price of housing has increased dramatically.
On early 2017, in spite of the annual decrease of the average price of 1 sq.m. on the secondary market nominated in USD by -11.8% (or in absolute terms by - $175) up to $1,308, due to changes of the exchange rate of USD to UAH, the average price relative January, 2016 remained really unchanged and amounted to 35,566 USD in the local currency (drop by -27 UAH per 1 sq.m. (or -0.1%).
Offer price on the secondary market
for Kyiv in dynamics, USD, UAH for 1sq.m. (1USD = 27 UAH)
Offer price on the secondary market of the residential real estate in Kyiv city
15.3
21 U
AH
15.7
32 U
AH
15.2
25 U
AH
21.7
86 U
AH
27.9
44 U
AH
33.9
78 U
AH
35.5
93 U
AH
34.7
80 U
AH
35.5
66 U
AH
$1.918 $1.969
$1.906 $1.851
$1.772
$1.618
$1.483 $1.394
$1.308
$0
$500
$1.000
$1.500
$2.000
$2.500
0 UAH
5.000 UAH
10.000 UAH
15.000 UAH
20.000 UAH
25.000 UAH
30.000 UAH
35.000 UAH
40.000 UAH
2012 1H 2013 2013 1H 2014 2014 1H 2015 2015 1H 2016 2016
Price of 1 m2 in UAH Price of 1 m2 in $
1.743$
1.456$
1.254$
1.441$
1.811$
2.586$
1.754$
1.436$
1.695$
2.076$
1.227$
1.045$
869$
1.043$
1.345$
2.089$
1.114$
1.007$
1.165$
1.604$
Holoseevskiy ( ee )
Darnytskiy ( )
Desnianskiy ( )
Dneprovskiy ( e )
Obolonskiy ( )
Pecherskiy ( )
Podolskiy ( j )
Svyatoshinskiy ( )
Solomianskiy ( )
Shevchenkovskiy ( )
2014
2015
2016
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
10
The level of provision with private rooms The number of rooms in the house/apartment, divided by the number of
people living in them is determine whether people live in cramped condition. Tightness in the housing conditions can have a negative impact on the physical and mental health, relationships with others and development of children. In addition, the cramped housing conditions are often accompanied by poor performance of water supply and sewerage systems.
By results of 2015 in Ukraine (Russia, Serbia and Macedonia) in the average has 0.9 room per resident, what is significantly less than the average for European Union countries (1.7 rooms per president).
Number of rooms per each resident in some countries of the world
2,5
2,3 2,3 2,2
2,1 2,1 2,1 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0
1,9 1,9 1,9 1,8
1,7 1,7 1,7 1,6
1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,4 1,4 1,4
1,3 1,3 1,2
1,1 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,0
0,9 0,9 0,9 0,9
0
1
2
3
28
Э
Sources:
State Statistical Service of Ukraine,
Statistical Services of EU and separste coutries,
UTG
The average number of rooms per each resident in some countries of the world, units
Near 17.2% of the population of EU-28 lives in overcrowded
apartments. The highest rates of overcrowding registered in Romania (51.6% or 1.0 room per person), Hungary (47.2% - 1.1 room per person), Poland (46.3% - 1.1 room), Bulgaria (44.5% - 1.1 bathroom) and Croatia (44.1% - 1.1 room).
Belgium (1.6% - 2.3 rooms per person), the Netherlands (2.5% - 1.9 rooms) and Cyprus (2.8% - 2.0 rooms) have the lowest rates of overcrowding.
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
11
5.427
2.470
18.612
13.664
4.280
2.438
8.009
2.617
18.959
12.240
4.781
4.375
8.713
4.862
9.828
7.964
3.329
4.825
2.438
16.664
4.284
4.648
5.745
2.411
4.865
6.318
2.896
24.832
12.289
5.740
2.855
10.713
3.427
29.094
17.555
5.764
4.041
11.404
6.360
14.728
8.496
4.255
5.135
3.484
21.751
6.323
5.103
6.934
3.050
5.510
(Vinnytsia)
(Volyn)
(Dnipropetrovsk)
(Donetsk)
(Zhytomyr)
(Transcarpathian)
(Zaporizhia)
- (Ivano-Frankivsk)
. (city Kiev)
(Kiev Region)
(Kirovohrad)
(Lugansk)
(Lviv)
(Nikolaev)
(Odessa)
(Poltava)
(Rivne)
(Sumi)
(Ternopil)
(Kharkiv)
(Kherson)
(Khmelnytsky)
(Cherkasy)
(Chernivtsi)
(Chernihiv)
2016
2015
2014
Demand
By the results of 2016, according to data of the Ministry of Justice in Ukraine
private and public notaries certified about 228,057 purchase and sale
contracts of apartments and individual houses, excluding the Crimea and
Sevastopol. Compared to 2015 (191,686 contracts), the number of transactions
in Ukraine increased by +19.0% or 36,371 numbers in absolute terms.
Positive dynamics is typical for all regions without exception. In relative
terms the leaders are: Luhansk region (+39,4% of +1,143) and Ternopil
region (+36,4% or +930).
The largest increase in absolute terms, showed: Kyiv city (by 6,138 or
+26,7%); Dnipropetrovsk region (by 4 208or +20,4%); Kyiv region (by 3 635
or +26,1%); Donetsk region (by 2,689 or +28,0%); (by 6,138 or +26,7%); Lviv
region (by 2,620 or +29,8%) and Odesa region (by 2,467 or +20,1%).
Quantity of purchase and sale contracts in Kyiv city and Kyiv region in 2007-2016
The number of signed purchase and sale contracts
in regions of Ukraine in 2014-2016
The number of purchase and sale contracts in the regions of Ukraine, Kyiv city and Kyiv region
Sources:UTG ,
The Ministry of Justice of Ukraine
19.5
20
20.8
76
18.5
78
18.8
67
23.2
67
21.9
87
27.0
97
18.9
59
22.9
56
29.0
94
14.7
25
11.2
60
8.7
54
8.3
64
10.3
81
12.7
51
14.9
51
12.2
40
13.9
20
17.5
55 6,9%
-11,0%
1,6%
23,3%
-5,5%
23,2%
-30,0%
21,1%
26,7%
-23,5% -22,3%
-4,5%
24,1% 22,8%
17,3%
-18,1%
13,7%
26,1%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Kiev ( ), pcs Kiev Region ( .), pcs YoY growth (Region),% YoY growth (Kiev),%
Sources:UTG ,
The Ministry of Justice of Ukraine
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
12
The number of purchase and sale contracts in the regions of Ukraine, Kyiv city and Kyiv region
Number of purchase and sale contracts of the apartments and individual houses in regions of Ukraine in the dynamics in 2012-2016 (by half-years)
Sources:UTG ,
The Ministry of Justice of Ukraine
Region 1 half of 2012 2012 1 half of 2013 2013 1 half of 2014 2014 1 half of 2015 2015 1 half of 2016 2016
Vynnytsia region 2 473 6 538 2 680 7 803 2 106 5 427 2 326 5 672 2 607 6 318 Volyn region 1 145 2 969 1 371 3 827 992 2 470 985 2 497 1 215 2 896
Dnipropetrovsk region 9 101 24 103 10 961 28 647 7 848 18 612 7 717 20 624 10 455 24 832
Donetsk region 13 758 35 029 14 405 36 659 8 613 13 664 3 183 9 600 4 449 12 289 Zhytomyrr egion 2 043 5 643 2 448 7 016 1 694 4 280 1 821 4 904 2 289 5 740
Zakarpattia region 1 090 2 896 1 245 3 586 978 2 438 1 052 2 597 1 181 2 855
Zaporizhzhia region 4 698 11 535 4 598 12 374 3 599 8 009 3 496 9 462 4 578 10 713
Ivano-Frankivsk region 1 327 3 379 1 485 3 984 1 110 2 617 1 073 2 698 1 464 3 427
Kyiv city 8 896 21 987 10 634 27 097 7 696 18 959 7 984 22 956 9 272 29 094 Kyiv region 4 304 12 751 5 555 14 951 4 708 12 240 5 890 13 920 7 301 17 555
Kirovohrad region 2 081 5 906 2 466 7 090 1 821 4 781 1 964 5 053 2 343 5 764
Luhansk region 5 825 15 534 5 945 15 706 3 678 4 375 831 2 898 1 652 4 041 Lviv region 3 496 9 488 3 907 10 557 3 916 8 713 3 462 8 784 4 743 11 404
Mykolaiv region 2 753 7 022 2 627 7 324 2 105 4 862 1 858 5 416 2 467 6 360
Odesa region 3 929 12 704 5 407 14 929 4 117 9 828 4 366 12 261 6 051 14 728 Poltava region 3 476 9 110 3 932 10 118 3 382 7 964 3 394 7 919 3 451 8 496 Rivne region 1 371 3 915 1 545 4 597 1 361 3 329 1 381 3 578 1 809 4 255 Sumy region 2 491 6 681 2 586 6 800 2 001 4 825 1 924 4 557 2 050 5 135
Ternopil region 1 060 2 804 1 226 3 546 991 2 438 1 043 2 554 1 541 3 484
Kharkiv region 8 873 22 592 8 406 24 033 7 033 16 664 7 698 20 203 9 898 21 751
Kherson region 1 998 5 575 2 283 6 347 1 594 4 284 1 871 5 089 2 726 6 323 Khmelnytskyi region 2 391 6 144 2 487 6 568 1 967 4 648 2 035 4 682 2 153 5 103
Cherkasy region 2 768 7 557 2 839 7 994 2 362 5 745 2 664 6 190 2 955 6 934 Chernivtsi region 989 2 647 1 194 3 316 988 2 411 960 2 422 1 303 3 050
Chernihiv region 2 381 6 488 2 210 6 331 2 018 4 865 2 202 5 150 2 363 5 510
Ukraine* (without Crimea)
94 717 250 997 104 442 281 200 78 678 178 448 73 180 191 686 92 316 228 057
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
13
1.401,6
942,4
2.638,0
2.488,0
1.776,8
782,8
567,9
902,9
-32,8%
179,9%
-5,7%
-28,6%
-55,9%
-27,5%
59,0%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10.2016*
М . гр
Mortgage loans ( ), mln UAH
YoY growth ( ), %
Mortgage lending (loan)
Lending of households in Ukraine
Reduction of lending of householders, which has started after the
crisis on 2008 - 2009, was continued in 2014 - 2015.
Since 2009, banks were actually forbidden to lend in foreign
currency of individuals and this is why the currency household debt in
2016 has decreased in 7.3 times compared with the peak value in
September, 2008. One of the factors of the reduction for foreign currency
indebtedness of individuals were the processes of its restructuring.
During 2016 the NBU was carried out large-scale diagnostics for all the
years of independence for 60 largest capable of paying banks (98% of total
assets): in the structure of a portfolio of granted loans, 53% of them were
problematic.
The volume of granted new loans for individuals in UAH in the context
of the objectives in the dynamics, bln. UAH
On January, 2017, the lending remains subdued due to the continued
high credit risk, a high level of debt load of the real sector, a very low
level of protection of rights of creditors, low capability of paying of
borrowers, tight credit conditions, the existence of legal restrictions
and the regular appearance of new legislative initiatives.
Mortgage lending by the results of 10 months of 2016 slightly quickened
but in general the structure of demand, the acquisition of apartments with
the borrowing of funds, still, does not exceed 4-5%.
The volume of loans for individuals to purchase real estate in the
dynamics 2009-2016, mln. UAH
Mortgage loan
Longterm for current needs
Short term for current needs
Cards loans
Sources: UTG,
National Bank of Ukraine
Sources: UTG,
National Bank of Ukraine
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
14
Number of mortgage contracts in regions of Ukraine in 2007-2016 dynamics
Number of mortgage contracts in regions of Ukraine, Kyiv city and Kyiv region
Sources:UTG ,
The Ministry of Justice of Ukraine
Region 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Vinnytsia region 7 356 7 947 341 454 644 704 624 294 332 417
Volyn region 4 114 3 535 273 412 649 502 517 333 207 223
Dnipropetrovsk region 20 765 27 831 1 057 1 345 1 941 1 646 1 677 1 080 997 1561
Donetsk region 23 919 39 601 1 492 1 868 2 814 2 592 2 556 703 129 82
Zhytomyr region 7 399 7 388 408 393 657 503 457 214 303 215
Zakarpattia region 9 433 4 728 353 398 599 547 521 275 274 304
Zaporizhzhia region 11 651 11 556 778 1 032 1 562 1 312 947 541 516 485
Ivano-Frankivsk region 7 107 5 035 509 534 670 580 540 294 272 246
Kyiv region 7 497 20 876 348 702 1 144 999 828 500 387 521
City Kyiv 31 405 25 121 4 424 6 850 8 526 7 856 9 321 5 969 4452 5 304
Kirovohrad region 5 516 3 941 192 372 473 421 364 176 178 163
Luhansk region 9 316 7 184 506 844 1 472 1 124 947 159 18 8
Lviv region 11 336 7 325 1 116 1 433 1 981 1 729 1 445 938 747 799
Mykolaiv region 7 262 5 823 495 597 655 567 505 258 247 262
Odesa region 19 802 11 387 962 1 329 1 808 1 447 1 358 847 826 842
Poltava region 7 593 6 293 655 779 1 271 1 112 980 481 430 387
Rivne region 5 924 4 528 413 563 555 461 407 217 257 260
Sumy region 4 894 4 374 409 505 785 924 683 427 334 241
Ternopil region 3 916 3 446 195 279 520 408 410 195 164 178
Kharkiv region 18 068 14 667 1 835 2 224 3 372 3 034 2 463 1 604 1363 1 398
Kherson region 6 473 5 182 393 469 647 581 634 408 417 480
Khmelnytskyi region 8 617 6 939 374 605 985 729 600 327 203 200
Cherkasy region 7 382 5 324 429 594 682 584 409 231 241 176
Chernivtsi region 5 706 3 576 305 386 518 358 289 173 204 196
Chernihiv region 4 104 3 225 405 534 601 535 394 205 218 233
Total: 256 555 246 832 18 667 25 501 35 531 31 255 29 876 16 849 13 716 15 181
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
15
Trends and Forecasts
The unstable economic and political situation in Ukraine and the
fluctuations in the exchange rate of foreign currency lead to an increase
in the price of housing, reduce the purchasing power of the population,
forcing him to refuse of the expensive purchases, take a wait and see
attitude.
On the other hand, the devaluation of the national currency, inflation,
lack of effective alternative investment opportunities, lack of confidence
of the population to the banking system makes investing in real estate
demand tool for the conservation savings.
As a result, the residential real estate market in Kyiv city and Kyiv
region annually has the absolute record in terms of commissioned
accommodations: 2,671 mil. sq.m. (in 2012); 3,024 mil. sq.m. (in 2013);
3,169 mil. sq.m. (in 2014 ); 3,23 mil. sq.m. (in 2015) and 3,385 mil.
sq.m. (by the results of 2016).
Ready square meters find their customers: according to data of the
Ministry of Justice of Ukraine, private and public notaries of Ukraine
certified about 228,057 purchase and sale contracts of apartments
and individual houses (excluding the AR Crimea and Sevastopol), which
increased by +19.0% or +36,371 contracts in absolute terms more than
in of 2015 (191,686 contracts). Positive dynamics is typical for all regions
of Ukraine with no exception.
In the structure of offer in Kyiv city and Kyiv region there are such
changes: the modern projects are characterized by less number of
rooms in apartments and the reduction of their area; more rational
planning; improved internal infrastructure.
A significant drop of the demand on the secondary real estate market
(traditionally linked to pricing in dollar) observed in 2014 and 2015 stopped
in 2016. This contributes to the rising price of 1sq.m. in new buildings, the
transformation by the developers installment programs in the less loyal,
delaying the terms of construction projects, increasing the risk of
unfinished buildings in the current crisis conditions, and some other
reasons. More popular is becoming the desire to purchase of housing in
commissioned buildings or in buildings with a high degree of readiness.
The average price of 1 sq.m. on the primary market of residential
real estate nominated in UAH 23,275 UAH, and for the year increased by
+522 UAH (or + 2.3%), and the price is nominated in US dollars amounted
to $911 per 1 sq.m. for the year decreased by -4.4 % ($ 42) due to
changes of the exchange rate of USD to UAH. In terms of the class on the
primary market «Econom» = 16,596 UAH (or $ 649) per 1 sq.m.,
«Comfort» = 27,885 UAH (or $1,091) per 1 sq.m., «Business» = 43,986
UAH (or $1,721) per 1 sq.m..
The weighted average price per 1 sq.m. on the secondary market
in national currency remains stable = 35,566 UAH and gradually
decreasing in dollar terms ($1,308 on February, 2017).
On condition of the normalization of economic and investment
climate, achievement of macroeconomic stability and the exchange rate of
the national currency should be expected active return of solvent demand
and the resumption of developers’ activity, temporarily filled the see and
wait position.
Residential real estate market of Kiev overview: 2016 year's results February 2017
16
CONTACT INFORMATION:
Vadim Neposedov The President of Company
Igor Melnik Vice-President of Company
Yevgenia Loktionova Director of Company
Viktor Oborskiy Chief
of Strategic Consulting Department [email protected]
Konstantin Oleynik
Deputy of Chief of Strategic Consulting Department
Dmitriy Terekhin Analysist of Strategic Consulting Department
Ukrainian Trade Guild www.utgcompany.com
Thank you
“Ukrainian Trade Guild” (UTG) is a major national consulting company
in the sphere of real estate. Up to date UTG is presented by 55 highly skilled
specialists and by over 500 clients. Participation in 450 business projects and carrying out over 1000 market researches give us an opportunity to be a
reliable, responsible and competent partner. Our working experience with real estate
of any size and type at various stages of project guarantee a high professional level and individual approach to tasks set