& CAP SCORE CORRELATION
ANALYSIS
ILLUSTRATING THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF CAP SCORES This study provides an analysis of over one million address-specific crimes reported at residential
locations and their correlations with CAP Scores.
2© 2021 CAP Index, Inc. All rights reserved.
ABOUT THE ANALYSIS
OUR PROCESS
Step 1: We gathered and reviewed crime data reported by the Austin, Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles, and New York City police departments. The availability of crime types and location information varied by city.
Step 2: Each reported crime was assigned a CAP Score and grouped into one of four CAP Index Risk Categories.
Step 3: We analyzed temporal trends by crime category as well as the relationships between reported crimes and CAP Scores.
Conclusion: The results of our analysis illustrate the direct correlation between the predictive nature of CAP Scores and the actual occurrence of crime and loss at residential locations.
CAP Index’s Crime Risk Consulting & Analytics team conducted an in-depth analysis to study various crime trends and assess how residential crime correlates with CAP Scores. In this analysis, we looked at over one million address-specific crimes reported as occurring at residential locations (e.g. houses, apartments, townhouses, garages, sheds, etc.) throughout the United States from 2018 through March 2021.
CRIME TYPES REVIEWED IN THIS REPORT:
Homicide Robbery
2018-2021 CRIME TRENDS
2018 352 6,603 27,481 145,401 10,987 6,716
2019 321 6,643 27,991 142,868 10,190 4,598
2020 405 6,018 28,837 138,042 8,383 3,071
Jan-Mar 2020 76 1,668 6,782 33,914 2,431 1,087
Jan-Mar 2021 79 1,320 6,692 32,296 1,829 898
Aggravated Assault Robbery
Homicide Other Assault
Jan-Mar 2020 8,394 18,593 2,136 277 8,948
Jan-Mar 2021 6,553 18,909 2,110 257 8,782
Motor Vehicle Theft Larceny
Burglary Arson Vandalism
HOMICIDE TRENDS
Monday 15.6%
Tuesday 12.9%
Wednesday 13.7%
Thursday 13.7%
Friday 12.7%
Saturday 15.6%
Sunday 15.7%
2018 352
2019 321
2020 405
Homicide - by QuarterHomicide - by Year
Homicide - by Day of Week Homicide - by Time of Day
i
h
h
ROBBERY TRENDS
Monday 14.9%
Tuesday 13.1%
Wednesday 13.6%
Thursday 13.4%
Friday 13.9%
Saturday 15.5%
Sunday 15.7%
Robbery - by Quarter
Robbery - by Day of Week Robbery - by Time of Day
2018 6,603
2019 6,643
2020 6,018
AGGRAVATED ASSAULT TRENDS
Aggravated Assault - by Quarter
2018 27,481
2019 27,991
2020 28,837
Monday 14.2%
Tuesday 13.7%
Wednesday 13.7%
Thursday 13.3%
Friday 13.9%
Saturday 15.1%
Sunday 16.0%
Other Assault - by Quarter
Other Assault - by Day of Week Other Assault - by Time of Day
OTHER ASSAULT TRENDS
Monday 14.9%
Tuesday 13.1%
Wednesday 13.7%
Thursday 13.3%
Friday 14.3%
Saturday 15.5%
Sunday 15.3%
Sexual Offenses - by Quarter
Sexual Offenses - by Day of Week Sexual Offenses - by Time of Day
SEXUAL OFFENSES TRENDS
Monday 10.2%
Tuesday 16.0%
Wednesday 19.0%
Thursday 18.4%
Friday 17.5%
Saturday 11.2%
Sunday 7.7%
Drug Offenses - by Quarter
Drug Offenses - by Day of Week Drug Offenses - by Time of Day
DRUG OFFENSES TRENDS
BURGLARY TRENDS
Monday 14.7%
Tuesday 14.6%
Wednesday 14.9%
Thursday 14.9%
Friday 16.2%
Saturday 13.1%
Sunday 11.5%
Burglary - by Quarter
Burglary - by Day of Week Burglary - by Time of Day
2018 44,773
2019 38,653
2020 32,414
LARCENY TRENDS
Monday 14.8%
Tuesday 14.6%
Wednesday 15.1%
Thursday 14.6%
Friday 15.3%
Saturday 13.6%
Sunday 12.0%
Larceny - by Quarter
Larceny - by Day of Week Larceny - by Time of Day
2018 75,065
2019 77,679
2020 84,490
Monday 14.7%
Tuesday 14.7%
Wednesday 14.1%
Thursday 13.9%
Friday 14.4%
Saturday 14.2%
Sunday 14.1%
Motor Vehicle Theft - by Quarter
Motor Vehicle Theft - by Day of Week
Motor Vehicle Theft - by Time of Day
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT TRENDS
h
i
h
ARSON TRENDS
Monday 13.4%
Tuesday 14.4%
Wednesday 13.3%
Thursday 14.5%
Friday 13.2%
Saturday 16.4%
Sunday 14.8%
Arson - by Quarter
Arson - by Day of Week Arson - by Time of Day
2018 1,169
2019 1,080
2020 1,197
VANDALISM TRENDS
Monday 14.1%
Tuesday 13.7%
Wednesday 13.9%
Thursday 13.6%
Friday 14.4%
Saturday 15.2%
Sunday 15.2%
Vandalism - by Quarter
Vandalism - by Day of Week Vandalism - by Time of Day
2018 39,165
2019 37,603
2020 38,422
The percentages of crimes that were reported
at residential locations with above-average
CAP Index Scores (100+) were:
• 96.8% for Homicide
• 94.7% for Robbery
• 93.2% for Aggravated Assault
The following charts illustrate the percentages and counts of crimes that occurred at residential locations as broken down by the CAP Index Risk Categories listed below.
l 8.3% (95)
l 28.2% (324)
l 60.3% (694)
l 3.3% (38)
l 12.1% (2,471)
l 35.2% (7,218)
l 47.4% (9,722)
l 5.3% (1,084)
l 14.0% (12,688)
l 34.6% (31,363)
l 44.6% (40,475)
l 6.9% (6,250)
HOMICIDE AGGRAVATED ASSAULTROBBERY
Below Average Risk Moderate Risk Mildly Elevated Risk Moderately to Substantially Elevated Risk
CAP Scores are based on a scale of 0 to 2000, with 0 representing the lowest risk and 2000 the highest - 100 is average.
16© 2021 CAP Index, Inc. All rights reserved.
The percentages of crimes that were reported
at residential locations with above-average
CAP Index Scores (100+) were:
• 89.2% for Other Assault
• 88.8% for Sexual Offenses
• 96.6% for Drug Offenses
The following charts illustrate the percentages and counts of crimes that occurred at residential locations as broken down by the CAP Index Risk Categories listed below.
l 16.8% (76,659)
l 34.7% (158,547)
l 37.7% (172,613)
l 10.9% (49,755)
l 17.9% (4,935)
l 37.9% (10,468)
l 33.0% (9,122)
l 11.2% (3,105)
l 11.5% (1,729)
l 34.0% (5,120)
l 51.1% (7,691)
l 3.4% (510)
CORRELATION ANALYSIS: PERSONS CRIMES
Below Average Risk Moderate Risk Mildly Elevated Risk Moderately to Substantially Elevated Risk
CAP Scores are based on a scale of 0 to 2000, with 0 representing the lowest risk and 2000 the highest - 100 is average.
17© 2021 CAP Index, Inc. All rights reserved.
The percentages of crimes that were reported
at residential locations with above-average
CAP Index Scores (100+) were:
• 87.0% for Burglary
• 86.7% for Larceny
• 91.0% for Motor Vehicle Theft
The following charts illustrate the percentages and counts of crimes that occurred at residential locations as broken down by the CAP Index Risk Categories listed below.
l 19.2% (23,332)
l 31.9% (38,881)
l 35.9% (43,713)
l 13.1% (15,934)
l 20.3% (51,424)
l 34.1% (86,487)
l 32.3% (81,850)
l 13.4% (33,940)
l 15.4% (4,365)
l 37.6% (10,667)
l 38.0% (10,779)
l 8.9% (2,526)
Below Average Risk Moderate Risk Mildly Elevated Risk Moderately to Substantially Elevated Risk
CAP Scores are based on a scale of 0 to 2000, with 0 representing the lowest risk and 2000 the highest - 100 is average.
18© 2021 CAP Index, Inc. All rights reserved. © 2021 CAP Index, Inc. All rights reserved.
l 0-99 l 100-199 l 200-399 l 400-2000
Below Average Risk Moderate Risk Mildly Elevated Risk Moderately to Substantially Elevated Risk
CAP Scores are based on a scale of 0 to 2000, with 0 representing the lowest risk and 2000 the highest - 100 is average.
l 12.4% (455)
l 33.2% (1,221)
l 48.0% (1,766)
l 6.4% (237)
l 16.5% (20,336)
l 34.7% (42,819)
l 40.1% (49,547)
l 8.7% (10,745)
at residential locations with above-average
CAP Index Scores (100+) were:
• 93.6% for Arson
• 91.3% for Vandalism
The following charts illustrate the percentages and counts of crimes that occurred at residential locations as broken down by the CAP Index Risk Categories listed below.
19© 2021 CAP Index, Inc. All rights reserved.
Please Note: Delayed reporting and changes in recording practices may impact reported crime trends. The availability of crime types and location information varied by city. The analysis was based on
the coordinates provided by each police department and relied upon the data made available at the time of collection; therefore, there is no guarantee that it includes a full representation of all crimes
occurring within the selected cities or time periods.
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