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Research Requirements of an Research Requirements of an Ecosystem Approach to Ecosystem Approach to
FisheriesFisheries
A A ScotianScotian Shelf Case StudyShelf Case Study
Mike Sinclair, Bob O'Boyle & Mike Sinclair, Bob O'Boyle & TanaTana WorcesterWorcester
Bedford Institute of OceanographyBedford Institute of Oceanography
CanadaCanada
22
OutlineOutline
�� EAF EAF -- related issues specific to Eastern related issues specific to Eastern ScotianScotianShelfShelf�� Will not discuss industry Will not discuss industry -- industry issues industry issues
•• E.g. fisheries & petroleum conflictsE.g. fisheries & petroleum conflicts
�� Research priorities for EAF in this area for next 3 Research priorities for EAF in this area for next 3 -- 5 years5 years
�� Broader research implications of regional Broader research implications of regional experienceexperience
33
2
3 5
2H
2G
2J
3P 4T
3K
3L
3M
3N
3O 4V
4R 4S
4W
4X
5Y
5Z 6A 40
45
50
55
60
Greenland
Newfoundland
Nova Scotia
Cape Cod
Atlantic Ocean
6 6B
6C
6D 6E 6F 6G 6H
75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40
35
Georges Bank
Browns Bank
Banquereau Bank
Grand Banks
Newfoundland RegionQuebec Region
Gulf Region
Canada
U.S.A.
200 mile limit
4
Eastern Eastern ScotianScotian ShelfShelf
Atlantic Canadian 'lab' since 1998
44
ApproachApproach�� Types of IssuesTypes of Issues
�� Impact of fishery on ecosystemImpact of fishery on ecosystem
�� Impact of ecosystem on fisheryImpact of ecosystem on fishery
�� MultispeciesMultispecies management (manipulation of ecosystem)management (manipulation of ecosystem)
�� Sources of IssuesSources of Issues�� ESSIM Management PlanESSIM Management Plan
�� Ecosystem Status Report for ESSIM AreaEcosystem Status Report for ESSIM Area
�� Paper prepared for SCOR 2004 Paris SymposiumPaper prepared for SCOR 2004 Paris Symposium
�� ScotiaScotia--Fundy Fishing Industry RoundtableFundy Fishing Industry Roundtable
�� Classified issues using Canada's nationally established Classified issues using Canada's nationally established conservation objectivesconservation objectives�� BiodiversityBiodiversity
�� ProductivityProductivity
�� HabitatHabitat
Challenge of interpreting causality &
cumulative effects
55
EconomicDimension
Social &Cultural
Dimension
Sustainabilityof
HumanUsage
MaintainCommunities
MaintainSpecies
MaintainPopulations
ConserveEcosystem
Components(Biodiversity)
MaintainPrimary
Productivity
MaintainTrophic
Structure
MaintainPopulationGeneration
Time
ConserveComponent's
Role(Productivity)
ConserveCritical
Landscape/Bottomscape
ConserveWater
ColumnProperties
ConserveWaterQuality
ConserveBiota
Quality
ConservePhysical/Chemical Properties
EnvironmentalDimension
Conservationof
Species &Habitats
DFODFOConservationConservation
ObjectivesObjectives
Traditional
Fisheries
Management
Intent is for
Fisheries Management
to address all objectives
66
Approach (cont'd)Approach (cont'd)
�� For each objective, management question posed & For each objective, management question posed & associated research identifiedassociated research identified
�� Assessed probability that research can resolve Assessed probability that research can resolve issue in 3 issue in 3 -- 5 years5 years�� Is it tractable?Is it tractable?
�� Judged scope of research effort (who can do?)Judged scope of research effort (who can do?)�� Institute (BIO & St. Andrew's Biological Station)Institute (BIO & St. Andrew's Biological Station)
�� Atlantic Coast (Newfoundland Shelf to Gulf of Maine)Atlantic Coast (Newfoundland Shelf to Gulf of Maine)
�� Global (International collaboration)Global (International collaboration)
77
National Conservation Objective Fishe rie s Oil & Gas Tr ans por t M ilitaryOthe r Stake holde rs (NGOs
& Public)Spe cific Ecos ys tem Com ponents
on ESS re lated to the Is sues
M aintain com m unities Modif ication of Bottom habitat Ef fects on Benthic BiotaImpact of
Explosives on Bottom Diversity
Protection of Fragile Benthic Communities I.e. Coral and in
Gully
Diversity of the benthic community, the coral community and the high diversity
benthic community in the Gully
M aintain speciesProtection of Species at Risk, low
productivity & narrow niche species
Drilling Waste and Noise (seismic & acoustic)
Ef fects on marine mammals & sea turtles
Impact of Shipping Noise on Marine Mammals, Ship/w hale
collis ions, Introduction of Invasive Species through Ballast w ater
Impact of Noise on Marine life
Protection of Northern Bottlenose Whale &
Leatherback Turtles & other Species at Risk
Overall Species Diversity & specif ically the status of species designated
Endangered or Threatened
M aintain populationsMaintenance of Population
Richness w ithin Management units
Genetic Diversity of populations under Human Pressure
M aintain pr im ary productionImpact of Produced Water
Discharges on Primary Productivity
Impact of pollution on Primary Productivity
Productivity of Base of Food Chain
M aintain trophic s tructure Harvesting of f orage species Harvesting of KrillProductiviity of Each Trophic Level (incl. Forage species) and Energy Transfer
along Food Chain
M aintain m ean generation tim es of populations
Fishing Mortality on directed & by-catch species
Drilling Waste and Noise (seismic & acoustic)
Ef fects on f ish larvae, f ish and shellf ish
Impact of oily discharges on Seabirds
Grow th & Recruitment Productivity of Individual Populations
Conse rve e cosys te m 's phys ical features - cr itical
bottom scape
Drilling muds disposal and contaminant degradation
Sediment Quality
Conse rve e cosys te m 's phys ical features - w ate r
colum n prope rties
Fishing Noise Impacts on Ecosystem
Seismic Impacts on Ecosystem
Shipping Noise Impacts on Ecosystem
Miltary Noise Impacts on Ecosystem
Overall Sound Environment
Conse rve e cosys te m 's chem ical feature s - w ate r
qualityShip-source Pollution
Produced Water Discharge, Contaminant
Biodegradation & Biotransformation
Oil PollutionShip-Source
PollutionOverall Chemical Environment
Conse rve e cosys te m 's chem ical features - biota quality
Bioaccumulation Biocontamination Physiological Processes of Biota
Identification of Issues & 'Ecosystem Identification of Issues & 'Ecosystem Components' in ESSIM AreaComponents' in ESSIM Area
88
Management NeedsManagement NeedsGeorges Bank FisheriesGeorges Bank Fisheries
GF HF SF L/CF
Productivity
Primary Limit alteration of essential nutrient concentrations affecting primary production
Community Limit trophic level catch biomass with respect to trophic demands of higher levels
Limit total catch biomass within system production capacity
Population Keep fishing mortality moderate
Permit sufficient spawning biomass to evade exploitation
Promote positive biomass change when biomass is low
Manage % size/age/sex of capture
Prevent disturbing activity in spawning areas/seasons
Manage discarded catch
Biodiversity
Biotope/seascape Limit % area disturbed of seascape/biotope types
Species Limit incidental bycatch or mortality
Minimize change in distribution of invasive species
Population Distribute population component catch as a % of component biomass
Habitat
Bottom Limit % area disturbed of habitat types
Water Column Limit amounts of contaminants, toxins and waste introduced in habitat
Minimize amount of lost of gear
Control noise level/frequency with respect to species of risk
99
Biodiversity IssuesBiodiversity Issues•• Can fisheries management & industry respond Can fisheries management & industry respond
to large scale ecosystem community changes?to large scale ecosystem community changes?
•• What can be done to recover species at risk ?What can be done to recover species at risk ?
•• How should speciesHow should species--atat--risk be monitored?risk be monitored?
•• Do present management practices allow Do present management practices allow accurate discard & byaccurate discard & by--catch estimates?catch estimates?
•• Should fisheries management be concerned Should fisheries management be concerned about population substructure?about population substructure?
1010
Can fisheries management & industry Can fisheries management & industry respond to large scale ecosystem respond to large scale ecosystem community changes?community changes?
�� Investigate Investigate biogeographicbiogeographic characteristics of characteristics of fish/invertebrate communities & how these fish/invertebrate communities & how these respond to circulation/mixingrespond to circulation/mixing
�� Revisit 1990s East Coast of North America Revisit 1990s East Coast of North America Strategic Assessment Project (ECNASAP)Strategic Assessment Project (ECNASAP)
Tractability: High Tractability: High Scale: CoastScale: Coast
1111
Species ScaleDistributions
Identified transitions in bottom
communities consistent with
circulation & mixing patterns
Movement in transition zones in response to North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO)
Mahon et. al. 1998Mahon et. al. 1998
1212
Newfoundland
75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40
35
40
45
50
55
60
Bottom Community Transition
Zones
When NAO Positive
Tendency for Northern
Transition Zone to move South
& Southern
Transition Zones to move North
Are these patternsAre these patternsPredictable?Predictable?
1313
�� Determine if Determine if snow crabsnow crab & & shrimpshrimp are sustainable are sustainable populations or Gulf populations or Gulf extension during cold extension during cold conditions.conditions.
Tractability: Low Tractability: Low Scale: InstituteScale: Institute
Tractability: Low Tractability: Low Scale: Institute Scale: Institute
�� Determine what is controlling the Determine what is controlling the invasion rate of invasion rate of CodiumCodium..
1414
�� Survivorship of leatherback Survivorship of leatherback turtles released from large turtles released from large pelagic pelagic longlineslonglines
�� Juvenile mortality & location of Juvenile mortality & location of porbeagleporbeagle puppingpupping groundsgrounds
�� Prediction of life history Prediction of life history characteristics of data poor characteristics of data poor speciesspecies
Tractability: HighTractability: High
Scale: InstituteScale: Institute
What can be done to recover species at risk ?What can be done to recover species at risk ?
Tractability: Medium Tractability: Medium
Scale: InstituteScale: Institute
Tractability: Medium Tractability: Medium
Scale: CoastScale: Coast
1515
Issues with other species
(e.g. BarndoorSkate)
Survey CPUE
How should speciesHow should species--atat--risk be monitored?risk be monitored?
�� Investigate whether bottom trawl surveys Investigate whether bottom trawl surveys provide reliable indicators of abundanceprovide reliable indicators of abundance�� CuskCusk hard to sample but show dramatic decline hard to sample but show dramatic decline
in abundance; is this real or due to contraction in abundance; is this real or due to contraction to preferred habitat?to preferred habitat?
Tractability: MediumTractability: Medium
Scale: Coast Scale: Coast
1616
BarndoorBarndoor Skate & SurveysSkate & SurveysSize is ImportantSize is Important
Trawl Trawl SurveySurvey
LonglineLonglineSurveySurvey
Mature Mature SkateSkate
Immature Immature SkateSkate
?
LonglineLongline Survey samples all size groupsSurvey samples all size groupsTrawl Survey samples predominantly immature skateTrawl Survey samples predominantly immature skate
Monitoring species at risk requiresMonitoring species at risk requiresconsistent time series of consistent time series of SpawnersSpawners
1717
Do present management practices allow Do present management practices allow accurate discard & byaccurate discard & by--catch estimates? catch estimates?
�� Impact of discarding on nonImpact of discarding on non--commercial speciescommercial species
�� Estimation of discard & byEstimation of discard & by--catch in ESS fisheriescatch in ESS fisheries�� May 2006 workshop uncovered significant data issuesMay 2006 workshop uncovered significant data issues
Tractability: MediumTractability: MediumScale: InstituteScale: Institute
Tractability: Low Tractability: Low Scale: InstituteScale: Institute
Also Productivity Issue
1818
Prior to 1984, ESS cod composed of Prior to 1984, ESS cod composed of spring & fall spawning componentsspring & fall spawning components
Determine if reDetermine if re--establishment of spring establishment of spring spawning component necessary for spawning component necessary for
recovery?recovery?1979-84
1988-92
Similar questions for other species
E.g. What is link between ESS and Bay
of Fundy Herring?
Should fisheries management be concerned Should fisheries management be concerned about population substructure? about population substructure?
Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: Institute Scale: Institute
1919
Productivity IssuesProductivity Issues•• What are management implications of What are management implications of
systematic removal of large fish on systematic removal of large fish on ecosystem functioning?ecosystem functioning?
•• What is minimum Spawning Stock Biomass What is minimum Spawning Stock Biomass for for ScotianScotian Shelf stocks?Shelf stocks?
•• Have current harvest practices caused Have current harvest practices caused growth reduction in gadoids?growth reduction in gadoids?
•• Does management need to consider impact Does management need to consider impact of climate change?of climate change?
2020
�� ESS ecosystem ESS ecosystem regulationregulation�� bottom bottom -- up or top up or top -- down?down?
�� Frank et al (2003) Frank et al (2003) suggests top suggests top -- downdown
What are management What are management implications of systematic implications of systematic removal of large fish on removal of large fish on ecosystem functioning?ecosystem functioning?
Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: Global Scale: Global
+
-
+
-
-
+
-
+
2121
Similar pattern seen in other
depleted finfish (e.g. wolffish &
skate)
Are these species in
predator traps?
Survey Z
Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: Coast Scale: Coast
�� Determine source & impact of high M on cod Determine source & impact of high M on cod
2222
Pups Recent evidencefor drop in r
Predicted
Observed
�� Role of grey sealsRole of grey seals�� Determine what population processes (e.g., Determine what population processes (e.g.,
density density -- dependent) regulate seals dependent) regulate seals
Roughly 700,000t of prey consumed each year compared to 6,000t 40 yr ago
Tractability: MediumTractability: MediumScale: Coast Scale: Coast
2323
�� Investigate food requirements & Investigate food requirements & consumption estimates of apex consumption estimates of apex predators (seals, sea birds, etc) predators (seals, sea birds, etc)
Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: Institute Scale: Institute
ESS Cod consumed using 3 different model assumption s
2424
��Are current seal consumption Are current seal consumption estimates accurate?estimates accurate?�� Issues with stomach samplesIssues with stomach samples
•• Biased towards small prey?Biased towards small prey?
•• Fishermen observe cod belly bitesFishermen observe cod belly bites
�� Issues with fatty acid analysisIssues with fatty acid analysis•• Reproducible?Reproducible?
Tractability: MediumTractability: MediumScale: InstituteScale: Institute
2525
What is minimum Spawning Stock Biomass for What is minimum Spawning Stock Biomass for ScotianScotian Shelf stocks?Shelf stocks?
�� Determine longDetermine long--term changes in SSBterm changes in SSB�� ESS Cod good example of ESS Cod good example of Pauly'sPauly's 'Shifting Baseline 'Shifting Baseline
Syndrome'Syndrome'
MSY
Recent Assessments Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: InstituteScale: Institute
2626
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
NE ArcticNorth SeaFaroesIcelandic
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
5Z4X bof4X wss4VW
ScotianScotian ShelfShelf NE AtlanticNE Atlantic
Weight (kg) at Age 7Weight (kg) at Age 7
Have current harvest practices caused growth Have current harvest practices caused growth reduction in gadoids?reduction in gadoids?
�� Determine relative roles of environment Determine relative roles of environment & genetic selection on haddock growth & genetic selection on haddock growth
Tractability: Low Tractability: Low Scale: Institute Scale: Institute
2727
Does management need to consider Does management need to consider impact of climate change?impact of climate change?
�� Trends in fish recruitment in relation to Trends in fish recruitment in relation to climate changeclimate change�� Link between timing of spring phytoplankton Link between timing of spring phytoplankton
bloom & ESS haddock recruitmentbloom & ESS haddock recruitment
Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: CoastScale: Coast
Also Productivity IssueAlso Productivity Issue
2828
Habitat IssuesHabitat Issues
•• Are fishery closures & gear restrictions Are fishery closures & gear restrictions adequate to protect benthic habitat?adequate to protect benthic habitat?
•• Can impacts of climate change on Can impacts of climate change on habitat be predicted?habitat be predicted?
2929
Are fishery closures & gear restrictions Are fishery closures & gear restrictions adequate to protect benthic habitat?adequate to protect benthic habitat?
��Determine if benthic community spatial Determine if benthic community spatial patterns can be predicted from geological, patterns can be predicted from geological, oceanographic & biological observations oceanographic & biological observations
��Determine proportion of each benthic habitat Determine proportion of each benthic habitat type that needs to be protectedtype that needs to be protected
�� Sensitivity of benthic communitiesSensitivity of benthic communities
Tractability: MediumTractability: MediumScale: Global Scale: Global
3030
Influence of geology, oceanography & Influence of geology, oceanography & biology on life history traitsbiology on life history traits
Areas of Potentially
Higher Sensitivity
Areas of Potentially
Higher Sensitivity
Scope for Growth
Dis
turb
ance
High Productivity (Benign)
Low Productivity (Adverse)
Sta
ble
Dis
turb
ed
De
pth
Gra
insi
zeC
urr
en
t
Food AvailabilityWater temperatureVariability in temperatureOxygen Saturation
Wav
e he
ight
/per
iod
Stratification
Lowest Risk to
Impact
HighestRisk
toImpact
Lowest Risk to
Impact
HighestRisk
toImpact
Scope for Growth
Dis
turb
ance
High Productivity (Benign)
Low Productivity (Adverse)
Sta
ble
Dis
turb
ed
De
pth
Gra
insi
zeC
urr
en
t
Food AvailabilityWater temperatureVariability in temperatureOxygen Saturation
Wav
e he
ight
/per
iod
Stratification
Lowest Risk to
Impact
HighestRisk
toImpact
Lowest Risk to
Impact
HighestRisk
toImpact
3131
�� Determine relationship between size & location of Determine relationship between size & location of protected areas & benthic community conservation protected areas & benthic community conservation
Current ClosuresCurrent Closures
Biodiversity
Fishery
Tractability: Low Tractability: Low Scale: Global Scale: Global
3232
�� Mechanism whereby climate change Mechanism whereby climate change influences ESS oceanographyinfluences ESS oceanography�� Impacts on benthic & pelagic habitatImpacts on benthic & pelagic habitat
�� Implications of North Atlantic Oscillation Implications of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)(NAO)
Can impacts of climate change Can impacts of climate change on habitat be predicted?on habitat be predicted?
Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: CoastScale: Coast
3333
• Linkage of Scotian Shelf with larger North Atlantic atmospheric system
• Different response to NAO north & south of Halifax
• Periodic? Predictable?
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
NAO Winter
Anomaly
1970 - 2003 bottom C0 differences
(neg - pos anomaly)
3434
Summary of Tractability & Scale Summary of Tractability & Scale TractabilityTractability
�� HighHigh 22�� MediumMedium 77�� LowLow 1212
ScaleScale
�� InstituteInstitute 1212�� CoastCoast 66�� GlobalGlobal 33
•• Management of ecosystemManagement of ecosystem•• Knowledge wonKnowledge won’’t be available in 3 t be available in 3 –– 5 years5 years
•• Management of researchManagement of research•• Considerable progress can be made at institute levelConsiderable progress can be made at institute level•• Partnerships at regional & global scale required for Partnerships at regional & global scale required for
several key issuesseveral key issues
ImplicationsImplications
3535
Emergent Research Issues Emergent Research Issues requiring international collaborationrequiring international collaboration
�� Link biodiversity to productivity & resilienceLink biodiversity to productivity & resilience
�� Ecosystem regulation (bottom Ecosystem regulation (bottom -- up & top up & top --down)down)
�� Link between habitat type & sensitivityLink between habitat type & sensitivity
�� Spatial scales of connectivity between Spatial scales of connectivity between benthic communitiesbenthic communities
SCOR SCOR WG?WG?
3636
Shortfalls of ApproachShortfalls of Approach
�� Focus on needs by conservation objectiveFocus on needs by conservation objective�� Requires prioritization of management issues Requires prioritization of management issues
�� Misses ecosystem level synthesisMisses ecosystem level synthesis
�� Need forNeed for�� ‘‘Ecological Risk AnalysisEcological Risk Analysis’’
•• Qualitative / QuantitativeQualitative / Quantitative
�� Contextual ecosystem modelingContextual ecosystem modeling•• EgEg. Atlantis, . Atlantis, EcopathEcopath with with EcosimEcosim ((EwEEwE))
3737
Thank You!Thank You!