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REDUCING EMISSION FROM DEFORESTATION AND FOREST
DEGRADATION (REDD) IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:
A CASE STUDY OF INDONESIA(Part of Proposed Background Research)
By: Kadim Martana
Supervisor : Assoc. Prof. Bruce ManleyCo- Supervisor : Dr. David Evison
School of Forestry, University of CanterburyNew Zealand
Outline
1. International Context2. Indonesian Process on REDD 3. REDD Demonstration Activity 4. Proposed Research
1. International Context Emission from Forestry Sector ~ 17.4% of total world emissions (A
4th AR IPCC, 2007; Stern Review, 2007).
1. Int’l context.. Cont.
About 75% of the forestry sector’s emission come from developing countries [ e.g. Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, PNG, Gabon, Costa Rica, Cameroon, Rep. of Congo, Democratic Rep. of Congo] - (A 4th AR, IPCC 2007).
Source of emissions : deforestation (conversion from land to non-forested land) forest degradation (i.e. reduction of forest’s capability).
PNG & Costa Rica’s proposal (COP 11th UNFCCC, 2005 (www.unfccc.int; MoF, 2008) to provide incentive to compensate with developing countries’
efforts to Avoiding Deforestation (later known as Reducing Deforestation and Degradation in Developing Countries/REDD) Mechanism,
1. Int’l context.. Cont. COP-13th UNFCCC adopted Decision 2/CP.13 on Policy
Approaches and Positives Incentives on REDD (including An Indicative Guidance for Further Implementation of Demonstration Activities on REDD) (www.unfccc.int; MoF, 2008).
REDD
Carbon Emissions
past future
Compensation for emission reduction
Reference level (Baseline)
BAU
V
Source: Ministry o Forestry, Indonesia (2008)
t
• Forest in Indonesia, based on functions
Total forest area : 123.45 mi l l i on ha (~ 60 % of the country l and area)
Conservation
Protection
Production
Convertible
31.78 M ha (26 %)
20.08 M ha (16 %)
14.06M ha(11 %)
Source: Directorate General of Forest Planning, MoF Indonesia (2006)
2. Indonesian Process on REDD
57. 53 M ha (47 %)
Forest Category:
2. Indonesian Process… Cont.
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1985-1997 1997-2000 2000-2005
Time period
Mil
lio
n h
a/y
ear
Deforestation rate in Indonesia
Forest industry dev.,Pulp & paper plantation, Estate crops plantation(oil palm, rubber, cocoa)
Economic crisis,Decentralization
Moratorium on forest conversion,Reduced AAC,Law enforcement,Improved forest management.
Source: Directorate General of Forest Planning, MoF Indonesia (2006)
Expansion of palm oil
plantation
• Further Look at Source of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Indonesia
Forest areas (production forest, conversion forest, protection forest,
conservation forest) including peat land forest
Deforested
Degraded
Increase demand to agriculture
land (subsistence
farmers)
Exposed to Repeated
fires
Illegal logging due to high dependency of wood supply from
mixed tropical hardwood forests
and limited alternative source of
incomes
Unsustainable forest
management practices by
forest concessionaires
Note: Carbon credit from REDD in tropical countries is expected to be $15 - 50 billion / year (assumed REDD at 50% or 2.4 Gt CO2 per year)
2. Indonesian Process… Cont.
2. Indonesian Process… Cont.
Indonesia formed Indonesia Forest Climate Alliance (IFCA), consisted of Governments, Private Entities, and Communities – a stakeholder’s consultation forum working on forest and climate in Indonesia, to analyse how a REDD Scheme could operate as a practical carbon emission reduction (June 2007)
Coordinated by the MoF, supported by partners (UK, Germany, Australia, WB).
The IFCA provided preparation of papers which address elements of the supply chain necessary to produce carbon credits from REDD in Indonesia.
2. Indonesian Process… Cont. Deforestation and Forest Degradation Reduction Strategies of
Indonesia (based on IFCA Study results, 2007):
Forest Function Recommended strategy initiative
1 Protected Areas 1. The development of a revised national conservation strategy,2. The development of a professional and sufficient management
structures,3. The confirmation of boundaries and the completion of the legal
gazettal process.
2 Production Forests
1. Review the production forest function,
2. Reduce flow of illegal logs into market (law enforcement, create new supply, restructuring wood products sector),
3. Review management practices in production forest units,
3 Oil Palm 1. Consolidate policy and approval for releasing Convertible Areas for palm developments,
2. Review spatial plans to optimise degraded lands,3. Intensify production per unit land4. Require zero burning
4 Peatland 1. Regulate and restore water table,
2. Prevent fire,3. Regulate further conversion of peatland, revise & enforce rules for
management of existing peatland,4. Implement land swaps to retain high carbon value forest and peats
while allocating alternative land for new plantations
Indonesia REDD framework/infrastructure on REDD includes:
a. Setting Reference Emission Level (Baseline)
b. Strategies
c. Monitoring
d. Market
e. Benefit distribution. Indonesia moves to implement Demonstration Activities
on REDD
2. Indonesia Process… Cont.
3. Demonstration Activity on REDD
As a follow up from COP-13th UNFCCC’s Decision 2/CP.13, Indonesia has some cooperations with partners to implement REDD Demonstration Activities / DA. (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/cop13/eng/06a01.pdf#page=3)
Objectives of the DA are to: Demonstrate REDD provide shared learning and experience on REDD
to international communities.
What activities in the region? Activities are basically derived from recommended
strategies, which are carried out at the regional level.
These include (summarized from KFCP Projects in Central Kalimantan /ex. Mega Rice Project and proposed activities at Berau District, East Kalimantan) : Addressing drivers of deforestation (rehabilitation of 1
million Ha degraded peatland –ex mega rice project, restoration of peatland hydrology, law enforcement to illegal logging);
Fire prevention (community based forest fire management), monitoring
Community based forest management for REDD, Agro-forestry and other forest based lively initiatives, Information sharing and outreach. Improved management of Forest Production
Management (for TNC proposals, since it includes production forests).
3. Demonstration… Cont.
3. Demonstration… Cont.
Proposed Location of DAs and Partners: Kalimantan Forest Carbon Partnership (KFCP), as part
of Indonesia-Australia Forest Carbon Partnership (IAFCP); located in Central Kalimantan.
Indonesia – Germany (in East Kalimantan) (Joint Study Report, 2008)
Indonesia – UNREDD Programme (initial stage, in North Sulawesi)
Indonesia – The Nature Conservation (TNC); proposed location in Berau District, East Kalimantan
Indonesia-Germany
Indonesia-TNC
Indonesia-Australia
Indonesia - UNREDD
• Proposed locations of REDD DAs in Indonesia
3. Demonstration… Cont.
4. Proposed Research.
Socio Economic Factors Affecting Behavioural Changes of Forest-Stakeholders in the participation of REDD DA: A study Case of Indonesia
Main Objective:to investigate socio economic factors that induce changes of forest- stakeholders’ participation on REDD DA.
• Some references:(2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Ministry of Forestry, Indonesia (2008). Consolidation Report: Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in Indonesia. Jakarta 10270, Forestry Research and Development Agency (FORDA) Ministry of Forestry of the Republic of Indonesia.(2008). Support to Formulation of a Forest Programme embedded into the REDD Process: Joint FC-TC Feasibility Study for the Indonesian-German Forest and Climate Change Programme. German Financial Cooperation with the Republic of Indonesia.
Other sources: www.unfccc.inthttp://www.climatechange.gov.au/international/publications/pubs/kalimantan.pdfhttp://www.un-redd.net/
Foto sources:http://www.borneotourgigant.com/http://www.geocities.com/degigant/West_Borneo.htmlPresentation by Indonesia Forest Concession Holders Association
Thank You… Terima kasih…
3. Demonstration… Cont.
Decision 2/CP.13 provides some Indicative Guidance: Demonstration activities should be undertaken with the approval of
the host Party. Emission reductions from national demonstration activities should
be assessed on the basis of national emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.
Sub-national demonstration activities should be assessed within the boundary used for the demonstration, and assessed for associated displacement of emissions.
Reductions in emissions or increases resulting from the demonstration activity should be based on historical emissions, taking into account national circumstances.
Sub-national approaches (activities within national boundary), where applied, should constitute a step towards the development of national approaches, reference levels and estimates.
Demonstration activities should be consistent with sustainable forest management, noting, inter alia, the relevant provisions of the United Nations Forum on Forests, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification and the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Independent expert review is encouraged
National Policy: road map on REDDJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
20072008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Post
2012
COP 13
Preparation Phase
- Design Fine Tuning- System
Establishment- Pilot Design
* Analysis (Architecture and Strategies)* Communication/ Coordination/Consultations
Carbon-Finance (Pilots)
- Pilot Implementation- Testing- Knowledge Management
Full Implementation
of REDD
Workshop, SBSTA, UNFCCC, G8, Etc.
COP14COP13 COP15
2. Indonesian Readiness.. Cont’
7 Technical Working Groups on COP 13
IFCA process in the National Climate Change context prior COP-13 GOI
Donors :World Bank, UK,
Germany, Australia,, Etc
MoF COP 13Steering Committee
(Eselon I Dephut)
National Coordination
MoFr
Ministry of Environment
MoF Chair ofSub Team COP 13 on Substantive Issues
MoF Chair ofTeam COP13
MoFr Chair ofSub Team COP 13 on
Side Events
Stakeholders
Study On Methodology forMeasuring and Monitoring Carbon Stocks
Study OnQuantification of past and future carbon
emissions
Study OnConsolidation of Payment Mechanism
Energy Adaptation Forestry Tech. Transfer
Post 2012 Financing CDM
Consultations
Coordination
Communication
StrategyMethodology/architecture
Study OnPulp & Paper
Study OnPeat Land
Study OnProtected Area
Consolidation
Study OnProduction Forest
Alliance / IFCA(Indonesia Forest Climate Alliance) :
MoFr, Other Mins, Local Govs, CSOs, Academia, Donors, Private
Sector, Int. Org
Study OnOil Palm
3 Activities
9 Studies
Study On Market
Resource Persons for WG
President of COP-13 Team
Source, MOF 2007
REDD Mechanism
To achieve such established (agreed) level of (emission/deforestation) reduction, strategies must be implemented in the field, following the recommended strategies.
Strategies comprise a set of activities, and act as inputs (money injection)
REDD
Carbon Stock
past future
Compensation for emission reduction
Reference level
BAU
? ?
Carbon emission
REDDProtection
Forest
REDD Area (e.g. District)
Involvement of community
in CDM Project
Protection forest is preserved (deforestation rate reduced to 500 ha/year, therefore
reduction of emission ~ 500*300 ton C + Others (RIL, A/R CDM, Communty..)
Avoid degradation
Community is given concession right to
manage forest sustainably
Sustainable forest management of Production Forest
From A/R CDM
From
RIL
Illegal logging (Rate of 1000
ha/year)
Source : Boer, 2007
4. Emerging Questions
Common question: What impacts would likely be of the REDD DA in term of social and economic, (+environment)
? At regional, national level? Specific questions:1. How to assess current impacts of the REDD DA? 2. From the current state, how to further predict impacts from such intervention? – i.e. modelling impacts?3. Can we go further to assess impact of the intervention toward local communities and other people dependent
on forests? E.g. Households income? 4. Can we go further to following questions Other questions:5. How can we link between the set of emission/deforestation target with those recommended/implemented
activities? 6. Given limited resources to implement strategies, to what extent that level of (emission/deforestation) reduction
could be achieved. In another way, Given an established (emission/deforestation) target, how much resources for the strategies (a set of activities) should be provided? i.e. LP problem?
7. Considering many type of activities in the DA, how is the relative performance of each activity in the reduction of emissions? How to measure? i.e Efficiency analysis?
5. My Proposed research Proposed aim:
This study aims at to investigate forestry sector’s potential impacts to a regional economic development due to an inclusion of reducing emission from deforestation and degradation (REDD) mechanism.
Research questions: What would be economic and social impact s to a region ? e.g.
economic value, job creation from the strategies/activities implemented? How can we link between strategies/activities with targeted reduction of
deforestation? Can we measure, its impact to low income groups / forest dependent
people? How is it compared to other medium and high income groups? i.e. measuring income distribution.
Can we link between three factors: level of deforestation reduction, expansion of implemented strategies/activities, and regional economic conditions?
5. My Proposed … cont
Proposed location Berau District of East Kalimantan Province is proposed
to be location of case study due to the following reasons: The Nature Conservation is now proposing this district as a
laboratory of REDD Demonstration Activity at a large scale. It is expected that the project could start at 2010 (now in the preparation & stakeholders consultation stage);
Berau District used to be a place for Berau Forest Management Project (BFMP). Reliable data and information are available;
Rahardja (2005) has worked on forestry based land use planning in the District. His work can be an important source or base for the inclusion of REDD DA for regional economic development.
5. My Proposed … cont
Other locations: Central Kalimantan (Ex. Mega Rice Project)
The area include ex. Mega rice (1 million ha of deforested peatland);
Carry out by Kalimantan Forest Carbon Partnership (Indonesia – Australia);
Project has been lasting for a year.
Thank you
Volume Perdagangan Karbon Dunia
Sumber: Capoor and Ambrosi, 2008
Kyoto Market (non
CDM), $24,000
Voluntary Market,
$92
Kyoto Market CDM,
$8,000
Berapa Besar Pasar Karbon
10 - 18 Voluntary - Avoided deforestation
0.5 - 45Voluntary market - A/refforestation
3.3Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)
11.3NSW GGAS (Aus)
8CDM
($US/ton CO2)
Harga KarbonMekanisme Pasar
Volume Transaksi Karbon sampai Maret 2006(US$ Juta)
Sumber: Team IFCA (2007)
Berapa Harga CER
Sumber: World Bank, 2006
A/R CDM REDD
Stok Karbon
Stok Karbon
Waktu Waktu
BaselineBaseline
Ada kompensasi
Ada kompensasi
Pembayaran dilakukan setelah pohon tumbuh (perlu menunggu)
Pembayaran bisa segera selama kita bisa menunjukkan penurunan stok karbon berkurang dibanding baseline
Sumberdaya Hutan dan Potensi Pasar Jasa Lingkungan KarbonIndonesia
y = -1.3753x + 2845.7
R2 = 0.988580
100
120
140
160
180
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Fores
t Cov
er (M
ha)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Luas
(000
ha)
Semak belukar, tanahterbuka, lahan pertanianbercampur semak
Hutan lahan kering danmangrove terdegradasi
Laju deforestasi tinggi 1.3 juta ha per tahun dan hutan yang tersisa juga banyak yang terlantar. Melalui Mekanisme REDD, dengan menurunkan laju deforestasi 50% dari yang terjadi selama ini dapat menghasilkan pendapatan negara sebesar 3 sampai 10 milyar USD/tahun (asumsi harga karbon 5 dan
15 USD/tCO2 dan stok karbon hutan sekitar 150 tC).
40 juta
Dari berbagai sumber
Ilustrasi besar emisi pada kondisi tanpa dan dengan adanya skema REDD
Potential kredit karbon ($)
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2017 2022 2027
Em
isi (
juta
to
n C
O2)
Baseline 1
Baseline 2
REDD intervention
2007
Ilustrasi besar emisi pada kondisi tanpa dan dengan adanya skema REDD
Potential kredit karbon ($)
Baseline 1
Baseline 2
REDD intervention
2012 2017 2022 20272007100
150
200
250
300
350
Sto
k K
arb
on
(ju
ta t
C)
JADI BASELINE SEBAGAI PROYEKSI BESAR EMISI ATAU PERUBAHAN STOK KARBON AKIBAT DD DI MASA DATANG
KALAU TIDAK ADA SKEMA REDD
Bagaimana menentukan Baseline?
OPSI 1: Dari data historisRata-rata selama periode
tertentu di masa laluMengikuti pola emisi masa lalu
OPSI 2: Pendekatan modellingModel spatial atau non spatial
OPSI 3: Pendekatan lainnyaKondisi stok karbon menjelang
pelaksanaan REDD dan lain-lain
IDENTIK DENGAN A/R CDM
OPSI-1: SEMAKIN BESAR EMISI HISTORIS, SEMAKIN
BESAR PELUANG PENURUNAN EMISI YANG BISA
DILAKUKAN
Reference level: deforestation rate
Baseperiod Crediting period - for how long?
Reduced emissions
With REDD
Without REDD