Research on child poverty and child well-being Jonathan Bradshaw Centre for Social Policy Dartington 14 April 2008

Outline: Tour of my research on the subject over the last decade or so It has moved from UK research on child income poverty To comparative research on child income poverty To UK research on overlaps - more than one indicator To comparative research on overlaps To UK research on child wellbeing and spatial To comparative research on child well-being

Child poverty:1979-1995/6 60 per cent equivalent household income

Child poverty rates 1995 60% of the national equivalised median income. Euro-mean

End of child poverty Prime Ministers pledge: Our historic aim, that ours is the first generation to end child poverty forever.Its a 20 year mission but I believe it can be done

Child poverty rates 1979-2005/6

Tax benefit model table situation after April 2008 poverty line

Comparative background: The child has been absent from EU lack of competence under Treaties Lisbon summit introduces social inclusion and enables the child to come in Social inclusion strategy monitored by Laeken indicators only two on children % children living in workless families Relative child poverty rates

% children 0-17 living in workless households 2006. (Eurostat 2007)

Child poverty rate (less than 60 per cent of the median 2005 (Eurostat)

Child poverty before and after cash benefits 2005

What is wrong with income poverty? Income Is not easy to measure Is not a good measure of command over resources ignores dissaving, borrowing and domestic consumption Relative thresholds very different in different countries

60% of median poverty threshold 2001, 2002*, 2003** Euros

What is wrong with income poverty? Income not easy to measure Not a good measure of command over resources Relative threshold very different in different countries 60 per cent of median arbitrary Modified OECD equivalence scale has no basis in science Poverty rates hide poverty gaps and poverty persistence

Child poverty rates by dimension. Own analysis of ECHP 2001

Overlaps analysis Began in Ireland Now in FRS Coming in EU SILC More reliable and probably more severe Have used it in MCS BHPS SASAS Bulgaria Georgia

Monitoring child well-being in the UK Poverty the outcomes for children (FPSC 2001) Child well-being in the UK, Save the Children (2002) Child well-being in the UK, Save the Children (2005)

Every Child Matters: Outcomes framework Economic well-being: having sufficient income and material comfort to be able to take advantage of opportunities. Being healthy: enjoying good physical and mental health and living a healthy lifestyle. Staying safe: being protected from harm and neglect and growing up able to look after themselves. Enjoying and achieving: getting the most out of life and developing broad skills for adulthood. Making a positive contribution: developing the skills and attitudes to contribute to the society in which they live. Input orientated not operationalised

Chapters Child demography Child poverty and deprivation Child health Child lifestyles Mental health and well- being Childs time and space Child maltreatment In and leaving care Childcare Crime and illegal drug use Education Housing and neighbourhoods

Broad conclusions Some things getting better Relative child income poverty (until this year) Attainment Child accidental deaths Housing conditions Some things steady Teenage conceptions Persistent child poverty NEET Low birth weight Some things getting worse Obesity Class differentials in infant mortality Looked after children Sexual health

Opportunity for all indicators BetterWorseConstantCannot sayAll Children and young people 15(8)4(2)3(13)2(2)25

Material deprivation (lone parents) 1999 2003 Proportion unable to afford selected items Cooked main meal every day 8 2 Weatherproof coat for each child 9 5 Toys and sports gear for children 24 10 Two pairs all weather shoes for each child 25 10 One week holiday, not with relatives 74 55 Financial stress Always run out of money before end of week 27 18 Not managing financially 35 18 Worried about money almost all the time 45 27 2005: H. Sutherland: Can Child Poverty be Abolished? Promises and Policies in the UK, ASPC Sydney 20th July 2005,

Comparative endeavours: At Luxembourg Presidency of EU: Atkinson Report recommends child mainstreaming and development of child well-being indicators EUROSTAT cautious and reluctant Suggestion that one extra indicator on educational attainment might be added to Laeken set So for UK Presidency we develop of an index of child well-being based on existing comparative data sources (Bradshaw, J., Hoelscher, P. and Richardson, D. (2007) An index of child well-being in the European Union 25, Journal of Social Indicators Research, 80, 133-177.) Later produce others for OECD for UNICEF CEE/CIS for UNICEF

Conceptualisation of child well-being Multi-dimensional approach Based on childrens rights as outlined in the UN CRC Ideology Child the unit of analysis What children think and feel is important Well-being more important than well-becoming Outcomes rather than inputs Direct measures rather than indirect measures

Data Sources I: Surveys Health Behaviour of School Aged Children (HBSC) 36 countries at 2001 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 32 countries at 2000, 41 at 2003 Citizenship and Education Survey (CIVED) 28 countries at 1999 and EUYOUPART (2005) European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs (ESPAD) 26 countries at 2003 European Quality of Life Survey (EQLS) 28 countries at 2003

Data Sources II: Series WHO mortality data base 1993-1999, all countries except DK & CY World Bank World Development Indicators 2003, all countries OECD (2004) Education at a Glance, 2002 data Eurostat (2003) Population and Social Conditions Eurostat (2004) Labour Force Survey World Bank (2002) Health, Nutrition and Population Data

Structure

CEE/CIS

Child well-being by child poverty R=-0.55

Material situation Relative child income poverty Child poverty rate Child poverty gaps Child deprivation Lacking car, own bedroom, holidays last year, a computer Lacking a desk, quiet for study, a computer, calculator, dictionary, text books Less than ten books in the home Parental worklessness

Overall well-being and material well-being R=0.73

Subjective Well-being Personal well-being Young people with scores above the middle of a life satisfaction scale 11, 13 and 15 years (%) - HBSC 2001/02 Students who agree or strongly agree to 'I feel like an outsider (or left out of things)', 15 years (%) - PISA 2003 Students who agree or strongly agree to 'I feel awkward and out of place', 15 years (%) - PISA 2003 Students who agree or strongly agree to 'I feel lonely', 15 years (%) - PISA 2003 Well-being at school Young people feeling pressured by schoolwork 11, 13 and 15 years (%) - HBSC 2001/02 Young people liking school a lot 11, 13 and 15 years (%) - HBSC 2001/02 Self defined health Young people rating their health as fair or poor 11, 13 and 15 years (%) - HBSC 2001/02

Childrens relationships Quality of family relations Students whose parents eat the main meal with them around a table several times a week, 15 years (%) - PISA 2000 Students whose parents spend time just talking to them several times a week, 15 years (%) - PISA 2000 Family structure Young people living in 'single parent' family structures 11, 13 and 15 years (%) - HBSC 2001/02 Young people living in 'Stepfamily' family structures 11, 13 and 15 years (%) - HBSC 2001/02 Peer relationships Young people finding their peers kind and helpful 11, 13 and 15 years (%) - HBSC 2001/02

Overall child well-being and % of young people saying they lived in a lone parent or step parent family r=0.13(ns)

Health Health at birth Infant mortality rates (WDI 2003) Low birth weight (OECD Health Data) Immunisation Measles WDI (2003) DPT3 WDI HNP (2002) Pol3 WDI HNP (2002) Health behaviour Brushing teeth (HBSC) Eating fruit every day (HBSC) Eating breakfast before school (HBSC) Physical activity (HBSC) Obesity and pre obesity (HBSC)

Risk and Safety Risk & Safety Young people who were involved in physical fighting at least once in the previous 12 months 11, 13 and 15 years (%) - HBSC 2001/02 Young people who were bullied at least once in the previous couple of months 11, 13 and 15 years (%) - HBSC 2001/02 Child deaths All child deaths: All under 19 deaths per 100,000 children, WHO mortality database, 3 year averages, MRD Risk behaviour Teenage pregnancy (adolescent fertility rate), adolescent fertility rate, births per 1000 women 15-19 - WDI, 2003. Young people who have had sexual intercourse, 15 years (%) - HBSC 2001/02 Young people who used a condom during their last sexual intercourse, 15-year-olds (%) - HBSC 2001/02 Cigarette smoking: Lifetime use 40 times or more 16 years (%) - ESPAD, 2003 Drunkenness: Lifetime 20 times or more 16 years (%) - ESPAD, 2003 Cannabis: Experience of use in Lifetime 16 years (%) - ESPAD, 2003 Inhalants: Experience of use in Lifetime 16 years (%) - ESPAD, 2003

Education Achievement Reading literacy achievement, 15 years - PISA, 2003 Mathematics literacy achievement, 15 years - PISA, 2003 Science literacy achievement, 15 years - PISA, 2003 Participation Full-time and part-time students in public and private institutions, by age: 15-19 as a percentage of the population of 15 to 19-year-olds (2003) LU SK (2002) Early Years Participation - children in registered childcare (% of children aged 0-2) - OECD, MRD Aspirations Percentage of the youth population not in education, not in the labour force or unemployed - age 15-19 - OECD, 2003 Proportion of pupils aspiring to low skill work, 15 years - PISA, 2000

Child well-being and educational attainment r = 0.39 (ns)

Civic and political participation Civic participation Participation rates: young people reporting involvement in two of five social participations 14 years (%) (Eng for UK, French BE) - CivEd. 1999 Interest in politics Political interest: young people reporting above the median involvement in political behaviours 14 years (%) (Eng for UK, French BE) - CivEd. 1999

Housing and environment Overcrowding Rooms per person in households with children (under 16s) - EQLS, 2003 Environment Households with children who think it is unsafe or very unsafe to walk around in their area at night (under 16s) - EQLS, 2003 Households with children reporting many physical environment problems (under 16s) - EQLS, 2003 Housing problems Households with children reporting at least two household problems (under 16s) - EQLS, 2003

Search for a summary measure Material well-being is better than child poverty Different domains have varying relationship to child well-being

Correlation between domains and overall well-being Subjective0.83 Risk and safety0.79 Material situation0.73 Housing and environment0.65 Childrens peers relations0.47 Education0.47 Civic participation0.45 Health0.40

Search for a summary measure Material well-being is better than child poverty Different domains have varying relationship to child well-being What about single indicators?

Best match between single indicators and overall wellbeing IndicatorCorrelation coefficient r Teenage fertility rate0.88*** Feeling unsafe in neighbourhood0.82*** Life satisfaction score0.81*** Low family affluence (deprivation)0.78*** Infant mortality rate0.74*** Under 19 mortality rate0.67*** Bullied last month0.67** Self rated health0.64** At least two household problems0.63** Low educational possessions0.60** Peers kind and helpful0.61**

Child well-being and teenage fertility rate R = 0.88***

Search for a summary measure Material well-being is better than child poverty Different domains have varying relationship to child well-being What about single indicators? What about selected indicators representing domains

Single indicators with highest correlation with cluster score ClusterIndicatorr with cluster r with overall well-being HealthLow Birth Weight-0.580.06 SubjectiveLife satisfaction score0.880.81 RelationshipsSingle/step parents-0.75-0.25 MaterialRelative income poverty-0.83-0.55 Risk&SafetyUnder 19 deaths per 1000 -0.81-0.67 EducationParticipation rates 15-190.730.35 CivicPolitical interest0.860.24 HousingAt least 2 housing problems -0.89-0.63

Child well-being by domain by selected indicators

Comparison of ranking by domain and selected indicators

Criticisms Data driven Countries without some or all indicators Some well-being domains not represented Focus on older children Out of date Summarising indicators Z scores implied weights No weights Limited direct access to sample data Cumulating % without regard to confidence intervals No measures of dispersion Validity and reliability

Discussion Our index first attempt Academic - probably too complex Explored scope for a simpler index Domains more important than overall ranking They get closer to why questions and thus policy

Overall child well-being and GDP per capita complete countries

Child well-being and expenditure on social protection benefits as % GDP 2003

Child well-being by expenditure on family benefits and services as % GDP all countries

Index at small area level: Oxford/York collaboration Domains Material well-being Health Education Crime Housing Environment Children in need. Geography LLSOA

Rank order of LAs out of 355 Lower =Better

Next Survey of child well-being in the UK Good Childhood Inquiry School based 15,000 aged 10,12 and 14 Focus on well-being Repeated every two years

EU now heavily engaged in the issue of child well-being NAPs experts devoted to child well-being in 2007 Portuguese Presidency priority Social Protection Group Indicators Sub committee report on child poverty and child well-being New element in SILC 2009 onwards

Documents

Research on child poverty and child well-being Jonathan Bradshaw Centre for Social Policy Dartington 14 April 2008