A warm welcome to CNDS fellow Malin Göteman who has been invited to join the CNDS Management Team and who has also agreed to take over as Deputy Director of CNDS after Klas Hjort stepped down. Malin is a senior lecturer and Associate Professor at the Department of Engineering Sciences, Uppsala University. Malin does research in hydrodynamics, wave energy and mathematical physics.

Research funding for links between geopolitical and environmental change The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research, Mistra, announced a 60 million SEK funding package to the interdisciplinary research programme Mistra Geopolitics. Uppsala University is one of the core partners in this programme. In its second phase, 2021-2024, Mistra Geopolitics will cover diverse aspects on links between geopolitical and environmental change in four thematic work packages, food security, sustainable oceans, decarbonisation and emerging technologies. CNDS fellow Nina von Uexkull and her colleague at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Håvard Hegre, will work on forecasting population displacement from complex emergencies, areas exposed to violent conflict and climate-related hazards. This subproject builds on the ViEWS forecasting infrastructure and will also recruit a new PhD student.

The Mistra Geopolitics programme is hosted by Stockholm Environment Institute and includes the Universities of Linköping, Lund, Stockholm and Uppsala, and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in Sweden, in addition to international partners. Nina von Uexkull will be node leader for Uppsala University and lead the Food Security work package of the research programme.

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Funding awarded to interdisciplinary research on extreme weather

The European Weather Extremes: Drivers, Predictability and Impacts (EDIPI) project aims to help us better understand the dynamics, predictability and impacts of temperature, precipitation (including drought) and surface wind extremes over Europe. Why does a specific type of weather extreme occur? How can we use this knowledge to better predict it? And finally, what are the likely impacts once it does occur? These questions will be addressed throughout the project by combining different disciplines and perspectives from climate science to statistical mechanics, dynamical systems theory, risk management, agronomy, epidemiology and others. More about the EDIPI project The EDIPI project is an MSCA-ITN-ETN or, more colloquially, a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network. The idea is to create a closely-knit group of universities, research

centres and private-sector companies hinging around a cohort of doctoral students who all work on different aspects of the same broad topic. This will include research but also educational and science communication activities. EDIPI will be co-ordinated by CNDS fellow Gabriele Messori (Associate Professor at Department of Earth Sciences, Program for Air, Water and Landscape Sciences; Meteorology from Uppsala University) and with assistance from CNDS fellows Anna Rutgersson and Giuliano Di Baldassarre. Within the frame of the project, they plan to hire 14 PhD students, 3 of which in Uppsala and 11 elsewhere in Sweden and Europe. EDIPI consists of a core group of 9 universities and research centres and 11 partner organisations, including operational forecast centres and insurance and catastrophe modelling companies. EDIPI aims to help us better understand the dynamics, predictability and impacts of temperature, precipitation (including drought) and surface wind extremes over Europe. The 14 PhD projects within EDIPI will, for example, use dynamical systems theory to understand future changes in destructive North Atlantic storms, provide improved forecasts of mortality related to temperature extremes in Europe, better understand how the skill of heatwave forecasts may be affected by climate change, and study vulnerability to compound hot/dry and hot/humid climate extremes.

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CNDS fellow on National Geographic Channel

The National Geographic Channel has started a new series "X-Ray Earth" where the latest x-ray techniques are being used to explore the inner layers of Earth. CNDS fellow Valentin Troll (professor at Uppsala University's Department of Earth Sciences) is contributing to the production as an on-site scientist and as Chief Scientific Advisor. Read more about National Geographic’s mini-series X-Ray Earth

Implementing Future Crisis Management Training The project CriseIT 2 "Implementing Future Crisis Management Training" is a collaboration between CNDS affiliate the Centre for Societal Risk Research at Karlstad University and several local and central Swedish and Norwegian authorities and businesses. The foundation for the project was established during the first project effort "CriseIT" where key insights, tools and methods were identified. CriseIT 2 takes these aspects one step further and maximizes their developmental potential. Both projects have contributed to the digitalization of crisis management as well as increased transborder crisis management collaboration, in particular in the border region of Värmland in Sweden and Hedmark in Norway. Follow project’s progress here

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CNDS PERSPECTIVES ON THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC IN ENGLISH

Discussion and Commentary: COVID-19 and the policy sciences: initial reactions and perspectives CNDS fellow Professor Daniel Nohrstedt and colleagues offer insights into the unfolding phenomena in their commentary, which draws on the lessons of the policy sciences literature to understand the dynamics related to COVID-19. They explore the ways in which scientific and technical expertise, emotions, and narratives influence policy

decisions and shape relationships among citizens, organizations, and governments. They also discuss varied processes of adaptation and change, including learning, surges in policy responses, alterations in networks (locally and globally), implementing policies across transboundary issues, and assessing policy success and failure. They conclude by identifying understudied aspects of the policy sciences that deserve attention in the pandemic’s aftermath. Read entire discussion and commentary COVID-19 and the policy sciences: initial reactions and perspectives

The Earth´s vibrations have decreased after the corona virus pandemic CNDS fellow and seismologist Björn Lund actively works with the Swedish seismic network (SNSN) and together with his seismologist colleagues have observed a decrease in the Earth's vibrations since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. Björn explains about why this is the case in his interview on Swedish television. More about the Swedish seismic network.

SubCity: Future imaginaries of the city subsurface City planning is entering a new era and society will need to significantly enhance its use of the subsurface volume below the city landscape. The purpose of the project "SubCity: Future imaginaries of the city subsurface” is to contribute knowledge and solutions for developing Swedish spatial planning so that it

creates the conditions to transform towards a sustainable society. The project team includes CNDS fellows Ari Tryggvason and Roland Roberts, both from the Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University.

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CNDS fellow Eric Paglia (KTH) and Marc van den Bossche started the podcast Corona Crisis: Once upon a pandemic to discuss the various and complex dimensions of the pandemic, with a focus on crisis management at the national and international levels and the long term societal and geopolitical implications of the COVID-19 contagion. Several CNDS fellows have been invited to contribute to the podcast, the latest two being Professors Ashok Swain and Giuliano Di Baldassarre.

Coronavirus impacts on India and the international peace agenda with Ashok Swain India implemented on four hours notice the largest lockdown in human history, leading to confusion and dislocation on a colossal scale. On this podcast, CNDS fellow Ashok Swain (professor of peace and conflict research) explains the Indian response to the pandemic and its potential consequences, as well as how the coronavirus crisis could affect the international peacebuilding agenda and the geopolitics of Asia. Sweden and Italy: Analyzing extremes of COVID-19 crisis Italy was the initial ground zero of the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe, while Sweden has emerged as an international outlier in terms of its far less restrictive handling of the coronavirus crisis. On this podcast Giuliano Di Baldassarre, director of the Centre for Natural Hazard and Disaster Science and an Italian living in Sweden, draws on his extensive research on natural hazards and data modeling, as well as his lived experience from the two countries, to assess the situation and analyze the respective responses to the crisis. To fear or not to fear: Conceptions of COVID-19 in Italy and Sweden Is COVID-19 a super-contagious killer akin to Ebola in deadliness, or something more similar to a severe seasonal flu? In the course of the current pandemic, the populations of Italy and Sweden, informed by the media and public officials, have come to conceive of COVID-19 in strikingly different ways. This has influenced behavior and the ability of government authorities to manage the crisis in the two countries. Here Prof. Giuliano di Baldassare explains how divergent conceptions of the coronavirus alternately facilitates and complicates crisis management depending on where on the curve a country is.

https://www.kth.se/profile/pagliahttps://castbox.fm/channel/Corona-Crisis%3A-Once-Upon-a-Pandemic-id2706456?country=ushttps://castbox.fm/channel/Corona-Crisis%3A-Once-Upon-a-Pandemic-id2706456?country=ushttps://katalog.uu.se/profile/?id=AA64https://katalog.uu.se/profile/?id=AA64http://katalog.uu.se/profile/?id=N14-377_1https://poddtoppen.se/podcast/1503666220/corona-crisis-once-upon-a-pandemic/coronavirus-impacts-on-india-and-the-international-peace-agenda-with-prof-ashok-swainhttps://poddtoppen.se/podcast/1503666220/corona-crisis-once-upon-a-pandemic/coronavirus-impacts-on-india-and-the-international-peace-agenda-with-prof-ashok-swainhttps://katalog.uu.se/profile/?id=AA64https://poddtoppen.se/podcast/1503666220/corona-crisis-once-upon-a-pandemic/sweden-and-italy-analyzing-extremes-of-covid-19-crisishttp://katalog.uu.se/profile/?id=N14-377_1https://castbox.fm/episode/To-fear-or-not-to-fear%3A-Conceptions-of-COVID-19-in-Italy-and-Sweden-id2706456-id273463919http://katalog.uu.se/profile/?id=N14-377_1http://katalog.uu.se/profile/?id=N14-377_1

CNDS PERSPECTIVES ON THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC IN SWEDISH

När kunskapen är osäker kan försiktighet vägleda Vid en pandemi orsakad av ett nytt virus är kunskapsosäkerheten mycket hög och det är just i denna situation som försiktighetsprincipen ska appliceras. Det påstår CNDS fellows Mikael Granberg och Finn Nilsson tillsammans med två andra kollegor i ett debatt inlägg i Svenska Dagbladet.

Hur är det att leda en forskargrupp på distans? I ett avsnitt av Curiepodden berättar CNDS fellow Steffi Burchardt om sin forskartillvaro i pandemins spår. Men hon talar också om den kommande forskningspropositionen och vikten av grundforskning för att vara beredd på nästa stora kris. Tillsammans med sin forskargrupp studerar hon vad som pågår i vulkaner innan de får ett utbrott och hur detta kan påverkar människor och samhället. Avsnittet ingår i serien Från min forskningshorisont där olika forskare berättar om sin forskarvardag och vilka frågor som engagerar dem just nu.

Centrum för forskning om samhällsrisker vid Karlstads universitet ingår i CNDS. En del av deras forskning sträcker sig utanför den forskning om katastrofriskreducering som CNDS traditionellt bedriver, och ger en inblick i hur vi människor påverkas av osäkerheter, sårbarheter och uppfattningar som i sin tur påverkar samhällets styrning, policys, institutioner och system. I en ny studie hos Centrum för forskning om samhällsrisker undersöker de hur äldre personer i Sverige upplever risk i förhållande till coronaviruset och Covid-19, samt äldres förmåga och vilja att hantera situationen och deras upplevelse av hur psykisk hälsa påverkas under denna pandemi.

https://www.cnds.se/news/news-item/?tarContentId=883364https://www.kau.se/en/researchers/mikael-granberghttps://www.kau.se/en/researchers/finn-nilsonhttps://www.kau.se/en/researchers/finn-nilsonhttps://soundcloud.com/tidningen-curie/nasta-stora-kris-kan-vara-ett-vulkanutbrotthttps://soundcloud.com/tidningen-curie/nasta-stora-kris-kan-vara-ett-vulkanutbrotthttp://katalog.uu.se/empInfo/?languageId=1&id=N9-1357/https://forskningforskningspolitikcoronavirus/https://www.cnds.se/nyheter/nyhet/?tarContentId=878470https://www.cnds.se/nyheter/nyhet/?tarContentId=878470

Kan coronakrisen bli en katalysator för grön teknik? Med sämre ekonomiska förutsättningar riskerar klimatomställningen att stanna av. Samtidigt är intresset för hållbara investeringar större än någonsin. Kan coronakrisen bli en katalysator för grön teknik? Världens politiker har många problem att lösa samtidigt. Mitt under den pågående pandemin fortgår

klimatförändringarna. Det internationella energirådet IEA räknar visserligen med att de globala utsläppen av växthusgaser kommer minska med åtta procent under 2020, till följd av coronakrisen. Men effekten är liten om man beaktar att stora delar av världen står helt still, menar CNDS fellow Victor Galaz, docent i statsvetenskap och biträdande föreståndare vid Stockholm Resilience Centre. – Att människor slutar resa, stannar hemma och jobbar på distans har helt enkelt inte den typen av effekter. Det är bara temporärt. För att få utsläppsminskningar i det långa loppet behöver vi förändra underliggande system och få tunga sektorer att ställa om, säger Galaz. Läs hela artikeln på Dagens nyheter här. NEW PUBLICATIONS

CNDS PhD candidate at Karlstad University, Åsa Davidsson published the article "Disasters as an opportunity for improved environmental conditions" in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. Here she presents case studies where disasters provided a window of opportunity for change that included social action with (potentially) positive effects on the environment. The research literature was screened for empirical cases in support of societal changes with a focus on environmental issues, and a more in-depth case study of the extensive tree felling after the storm Gudrun in Sweden 2005 was also conducted. The

case study is explored through available research as well as “grey” literature to identify societal actions taken after the storm that had – or not – an effect on environmental conditions. With the help of the framework presented by Birkmann et al. (2010), the study aims to characterise the nature of these anthropic changes. The framework was modified to focus specifically on societal actions implemented because of an “open window”, and the environmental effects of the actions. This enabled identifying changes with a positive/negative and intended/unintended effect on the environment, as well as determining if a change was based on formal or informal decisions. Several cases identified in the literature provide empirical support for the theory that disasters can generate a window of opportunity for positive environmental change. However, open windows are not always exploited, as is apparent in the case of the storm Gudrun.

https://www.stockholmresilience.org/contact-us/staff/2008-01-10-galaz.htmlhttps://www.dn.se/ekonomi/kan-coronakrisen-bli-en-katalysator-for-gron-teknik/https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/kan-coronakrisen-bli-en-katalysator-for-gron-teknik/https://www.kau.se/en/researchers/asa-davidssonhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919305904?via%3Dihubhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919305904?via%3Dihubhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919305904?via%3Dihub

CNDS fellows Charles Parker, Daniel Nohrstedt and Helena Hermansson, together with their colleagues in Canada, Denmark, and Australia, published the article "Collaborative crisis management: a plausibility probe of core assumptions" in Policy and Society utilizing the Collaborative Governance Databank to empirically explore core theoretical assumptions about collaborative governance in the context of crisis management.

By selecting a subset of cases involving episodes or situations characterized by the combination of urgency, threat, and uncertainty, they conduct a plausibility probe to garner insights into a number of central assumptions and dynamics fundamental to understanding collaborative crisis management. Although there is broad agreement among academics and practitioners that collaboration is

essential for managing complex risks and events that no single actor can handle alone, in the literature, there are several unresolved claims and uncertainties regarding many critical aspects of collaborative crisis management. Assumptions investigated in the article relate to starting-points and triggers for collaboration, level of collaboration, goal-formulation, adaptation, involvement and role of non-state actors, and the prevalence and impact of political infighting. The results confirm that crises represent rapidly moving and dynamic events that raise the need for adaptation, adjustment, and innovation by diverse sets of participants. They also find examples of successful behaviours where actors managed, despite challenging conditions, to effectively contain conflict, formulate and achieve shared goals, adapt to rapidly changing situations and emergent structures, and innovate in response to unforeseen problems.

Mazzoleni, M., Paron, P., Reali, A., Juizo, D., Manane, J., & Brandimarte, L. (2020). Testing UAV-derived topography for hydraulic modelling in a tropical environment. Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 1-25.

Michaelis, T., Brandimarte, L., & Mazzoleni, M. (2020). Capturing flood-risk dynamics with a coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 1-16.

Albertini, C., Mazzoleni, M., Totaro, V., Iacobellis, V., & Di Baldassarre, G. (2020). Socio-Hydrological Modelling: The Influence of Reservoir Management and Societal Responses on Flood Impacts. Water, 12(5), 1384.

Di Baldassarre, G., Nardi, F., Annis, A., Odongo, V., Rusca, M., and Grimaldi, S.: Brief communication: Comparing hydrological and hydrogeomorphic paradigms for global flood hazard mapping, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1415–1419, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1415-2020, 2020.

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Nilsson, J., Sandström, A. & Nohrstedt, D. Beliefs, social identity, and the view of opponents in Swedish carnivore management policy. Policy Sci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-020-09380-5. Malin Göteman, Marianna Giassi, Jens Engström, and Jan Isberg, "Advances and Challenges in Wave Energy Park Optimization—A Review", Frontiers in Energy Research 8:26, doi:10.3389/fenrg.2020.00026 Jens Engström, Malin Göteman, Mikael Eriksson, Mikael Bergkvist, Erik Nilsson, Anna Rutgersson, Erland Strömstedt, "Energy absorption from parks of point‐absorbing wave energy converters in the Swedish exclusive economic zone", Energy Sci Eng., 2019;00:1–12, doi:10.1002/ese3.507

UPDATE ON SCHEDULED CNDS ACTIVITIES

• 24 and 25 August – CNDS Summer Webinar via Zoom In light of the developing coronavirus outbreak, the 2020 CNDS/EGU Summer School will instead be replaced by two afternoon webinars on 24 and 25 August. See the attached flyer for more details as well as on the CNDS website.

• Annual Assembly is tentatively planned as a remote meeting for the morning of 25 August (before the webinar). More details will be provided in the coming weeks. We hope that we can have a physical meeting or a hybrid, but that will depend upon how the pandemic situation looks at that time as well as the restrictions/recommendations.

• 15 September - CNDS research seminar, Uppsala University or Zoom This event will be held in a hybrid format with participation possible in person at Uppsala University’s Dept of Government (depending on what the restrictions/recommendations are at that time) or via Zoom. The seminar organizers Daniel Nohrstedt and Charles Parker are planning a covid-19 theme for the CNDS seminar and will be inviting colleagues from different sub-disciplines to share their insights on covid-19 and the pandemic response. In addition, PhD candidate Elisa Savelli will be presenting her doctoral work and Rasmus Andrén will be the discussant for this presentation.

• The CNDS Forum on Natural Hazards has been officially postponed until March 2021.

• No changes made as of yet for the research seminar scheduled 10 December at the Swedish Defence University. This research seminar is in tribute to Nobel research advancements is being organized by Klas Hjort. PhD candidate Simon Södergren will be presenting his doctoral work and the discussant for this presentation will be announced later.

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Reminders • Please send your updates (new publications, conference participation, video

footage, news items or any other exciting events we should share) to Stephanie Young or Johanna Mård.

• Please remember to add your CNDS affiliation (and logo where appropriate) in your correspondences and publications. Example: Name, Department, University, “Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science”

Keep the rest of us updated on what’s happening with your research and see what your colleagues are up to be visiting the CNDS twitter account. Links to the CNDS units

• Centre for Societal Risk Research (CSR), Karlstad University • Centre for Societal Security, Swedish Defence University • Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University • Department of Government, Uppsala University • Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University • Department of Engineering Sciences, Uppsala University • Department of Information Technology, Uppsala University

mailto:stephanie.young@fhs.semailto:stephanie.young@fhs.semailto:johanna.maard@geo.uu.sehttps://twitter.com/CNDS_Swedenhttps://www.kau.se/en/csrhttps://www.fhs.se/en/centre-for-societal-security.htmlhttp://www.geo.uu.se/?languageId=1http://www.statsvet.uu.se/?languageId=1http://katalog.uu.se/organisation/?orgId=HS3#__utma=1.362372708.1505122675.1505918330.1505918334.4&__utmb=1.7.10.1519226510&__utmc=1&__utmx=-&__utmz=1.1505122675.1.1.utmcsr=(direct)|utmccn=(direct)|utmcmd=(none)&__utmv=-&__utmk=261379853http://www.teknik.uu.se/?languageId=1http://www.it.uu.se/first?lang=en

CNDS Summer Webinar

Natural Hazards in the AnthropoceneCentre of Natural Hazards & Disaster Science

AboutThis two half-day webinar will gather PhD students and researchers from the earth, engineering and social sciences in an effort to better understand the dynamics and negative impacts of natural hazards (volcanoes, floods, droughts, wildfires, earthquakes, etc.) as well as to deepen our knowledge on disaster risk management, international crisis preparedness and social vulnerability. The focus will be on multiple natural hazards, including compound events and cascading effects. We will explore Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) through the disaster cycle (mitigation, preparation, response and recovery) and in relation to the interaction of multiple natural hazards with human society. Together with senior researchers in the forefront of this field, we will discuss and propose some solutions to these complex problems in DRR.

24-25 August 2020

MONDAY, 14:00-17:00 CET Before a disaster hits

TUESDAY, 14:00-17:00 CET After a disaster hits

Programme 24-25 August 2020

• Disaster Risk Reduction• Disaster cycle• Extremes, compound events and multiple hazards• Risk management• Forecasting natural hazards and early warning systems• Risk communication• Power system resilience to natural hazards

• Making society function during a crisis - Ten lessons from fighting covid-19

• Complex negative events and the diffusion of crisis• Long-lasting disasters and the risks of chronic impacts• Conflicts following a disaster

How to participate This two half-day webinar has been designed primarily for PhD students but participation is also open to researchers and practitioners who work with Disaster Risk Reduction issues. In order to be eligible to participate, you will need to fill in an online registration form no later than 14 August 2020 (23.59 CET).

Online registration formhttps://www.fhs.se/en/centre-for-societal-security/research/the-centre-of-natural-hazards-and-disaster-science-cnds/cnds-summer-school/participation-request.html

After we have processed your registration, you will receive details regarding the programme and the webinar link.

Contact:Johanna Mård (CNDS Project Coordinator) Giuliano Di Baldassarre (CNDS Director) coordination@cnds.se

Confirmed lecturers:• Claire Horwell (geohealth) Durham University• Hannah Cloke (hydrology) University of Reading• Giuliano Di Baldassarre (risk dynamics) Uppsala University• Johanna Mård (remote sensing) Uppsala University• Daniel Nohrstedt (governance) Uppsala University• Malin Göteman (critical infrastructure) Uppsala University

• Lars Nyberg (risk management) Karlstad University• Fredrik Bynander (societal security) Swedish Defence University• Gabriele Messori (climate and weather) Uppsala University• Charles Parker (political science) Uppsala University• Nina von Uexkull (peace and conflict) Uppsala University

www.cnds.se

https://www.fhs.se/en/centre-for-societal-security/mailto:coordination@cnds.sehttps://www.fhs.se/en/centre-for-societal-security/research/the-centre-of-natural-hazards-and-disaster-science-cnds/cnds-summer-school/participation-request.html

CNDS News Flash - June 2020More about the EDIPI projectCNDS PERSPECTIVES ON THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMICIN ENGLISHDiscussion and Commentary: COVID-19 and the policy sciences: initial reactions and perspectives

CNDS fellow Eric Paglia (KTH) and Marc van den Bossche started the podcast Corona Crisis: Once upon a pandemic to discuss the various and complex dimensions of the pandemic, with a focus on crisis management at the national and international levels an...CNDS PERSPECTIVES ON THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC IN SWEDISHCentrum för forskning om samhällsrisker vid Karlstads universitet ingår i CNDS. En del av deras forskning sträcker sig utanför den forskning om katastrofriskreducering som CNDS traditionellt bedriver, och ger en inblick i hur vi människor påverkas av ...NEW PUBLICATIONSUPDATE ON SCHEDULED CNDS ACTIVITIES

CNDS 2020 Summer Webinar-FINAL