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Research DepartmentBrady Darvin, Research Manager
CTHE Organizational Structure
P a u l Jon esR e se a rch A n a lyst
B rady D a rv inR e se arch M an ag er
S tev e L yo nsV P , B us in ess D ev e lop m e nt
M arsha ll Fo rs te rE V P , N o r th A m er ica
L e xin e W o ngE V P , W or ldw ide M arke ting
B en Fe in go ldP re sid e n t, C T H E
2 CTHE Research Dept.
CTHE Research Personnel
• Brady Darvin– Oversee all domestic research needs of CTHE– Primary contact with all CTHE senior executives
& outside research vendors– Liaise with other SPE & SCA divisions– Manage 2 analysts, 2 Nielsen on-site consultants
• Paul Jones– Quantitative analyses– Interpretation of data, trendspotting
3 CTHE Research Dept.
Secondary Research: Major Resources
• Nielsen VideoScan (retail POS data)• VidTrac (rental POS data)• Nielsen Entertainment Marketing Solutions
(MarketNavigator geodemographic system)• Understanding & Solutions (International)• Industry Estimates & Trends (Domestic)
– Alexander & Associates– Adams Media Research– Nielsen Entertainment Index– Consumer Electronics Association
4 CTHE Research Dept.
Secondary Research:Databases/Subscriptions
• Lexis-Nexis– for due diligence, industry & title-specific news
monitoring
• IMDB Pro– Subscription version of the Internet Movie
Database (BO revenues & production info)
• Publications– Video Store, Video Business, Variety, Discount
Store News, The DVD Release Report, others
5 CTHE Research Dept.
Major Research Areas:Volumetric/POS Sales Projections
• Title-level volumetric projections for DVD & VHS releases– Title-specific projections of DVD & VHS sales (both
before and after theatrical release)– Use regression models based on estimated BO, genre,
past competitive titles, type of release, date of release– Field intent-to-purchase surveys for key titles
• Category-level projections for total home video industry
• Tracking of competitive title sales & pricing by channel of distribution
• Due diligence for potential acquisitions
6 CTHE Research Dept.
Major Research Areas:Product Development/Strategy
• Franchise/line extensions & new franchise development
• Television series on DVD
• DVD product configuration (e.g., aspect ratios, number of discs, added value)
• Release date scheduling strategy
7 CTHE Research Dept.
Major Research Areas:Retail/Industry Trends
• Merchandising, placement, fixtures• Pricing, retail promotions• Tracking of competitive sales & marketing
promotions• Monitoring wide range of news sources &
distributing to relevant CTHE executives
8 CTHE Research Dept.
Major Research Areas:Primary Consumer Research
• Intent-to-Purchases (telephone): for very big titles and others with special circumstances (6-10 per year)
• Package testing (online): for key titles, when alternative to theatrical key art is being considered
• Brand awareness/feedback, e.g. Superbit DVDs, Spanish packaging, children’s franchises (telephone & online)
99 CTHE Research Dept.
• Nielsen Entertainment Marketing Solutions• ePoll• Nielsen ReelResearch• Harris Interactive• Lieberman Worldwide
CTHE Primary Research Resources
10 CTHE Research Dept.
CTHE Databases & Tools Developed In-House
• Competitive release database
• POS projection models
• Revenue projection models
• Reports repository
• Product allocation modeling for VMI accounts
11 CTHE Research Dept.
Projects in Development
• DVD Attitude & Usage Survey
• Competitive Pricing Analysis
• Micro-analysis of CTHE catalog product
• Next-generation home video products
12 CTHE Research Dept.
Research Wants• More qualitative analysis: focus groups,
copy testing, mall intercepts, etc.• International territories:
– POS tracking– DVD hardware penetration– Pricing & distribution
• Advanced statistical techniques– Factor analysis, perceptual mapping– Logit/probit models– Conjoint & discrete choice analysis
13 CTHE Research Dept.
Strategic Analyses: Examples
• Pricing & promotion of catalog titles vs. new releases
• Growth of DVD in the grocery channel• Effect of advertising on consumer sales• Widescreen vs. Pan & Scan DVDs• Effect of VHS decline on DVD sales• Effect of theatrical sequels on video sales of
original
14 CTHE Research Dept.
Product-Specific Analyses: Examples
• Length of time between releases of regular edition & “special edition” versions of a DVD title
• How to price a multi-disc DVD set of a TV series’ complete season
• How many episodes per title & titles per wave to release of a kids’ series
• Various studies on pricing, product lifecycles, etc.
15 CTHE Research Dept.
Nielsen VideoScan
• VideoScan and ACNielsen (a partnership since January 2000, and sister companies under the VNU banner since 2001) collect and integrate point-of-sale (POS) data.
• Reporting retailers transmit scanned purchase data weekly to either VideoScan or ACNielsen to provide a comprehensive view of the VHS and DVD sell-through business.
• Data reports are delivered to subscribing customers within the entertainment industry through the Nielsen VideoScan web sites and the ACNielsen NITRO data delivery system.
16 CTHE Research Dept.
Nielsen VideoScan
• Sales data is captured from traditional channels of video distribution, which include mass merchants, audio/video and video specialty retailers, electronics outlets, grocery and drug channels, and some Internet sites.
• Reporting retailers include:– Specialty Retail (i.e. Blockbuster, Tower, Wherehouse)
– Discount Mass (i.e. Kmart, Target)
– Drug & Grocery (i.e., Walgreen’s, Ralph’s, Kroger)
– Other Mass (i.e. Best Buy, Circuit City)
– Able to project to estimate 100% of domestic market
17 CTHE Research Dept.
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
WEEK ENDING
WEE
KL
Y D
VD
PO
S U
NIT
S
2002
2001
Titans
Dinosaur/ What Lies Beneath
BringIt On
Lady & theTramp II
Meet TheParents
Charlie's/ 6th Day
Men Of Honor
Congeniality/New Groove
Vertical Limit
Hannibal
Mummy Returns
Star Wars: Episode 1
Fast & The Furious
American P ie 2
Crouching Tiger
Traffic
Cast Away
Apes/Grinch
Princess Diaries/Moulin Rouge
Rush Hour 2
NOTE: Week ending 12/21/01 Volume = 17.4M; Week ending 12/29/01 Volume = 13.2M
Shrek
Pearl Harbor
P eter P an SE
Cinderella 2/J ay & Silent Bob
The One SEAI - WS & P S
Training Day
Behind Enemy Lines
Harry Potter
Ocean's Eleven
Black Hawk Down
Resident Evil
Lord of the Rings
We Were Soldiers
Blade 2
Sample Data from Nielsen VideoScan
18 CTHE Research Dept.
Rank for Week
Ending 09/14/02 Title Studio
Release Date
Weeks in Release
Box Office ($M) DVD Source
ARP (Mass, Drug,
Grocery) Grocery Drug Target K-mart
Remaining Discount
MassOther Mass*
Specialty Retail**
Internet/Mail Order
Sum-Available Channels
1 CHANGING LANES PARA 9/10/02 1 66.74 D/D VHS RENTAL $16.40 1,594 - 26,178 3,465 3,950 116,859 36,586 18 188,650
2 COUNT OF MONTE CRISTO-2002 DISN 9/10/02 1 54.23 D/D VHS RENTAL $17.52 1,632 2,132 23,986 3,129 3,951 109,330 41,192 22 185,374
3 BLADE 2 NEWL 9/3/02 2 81.67 D/D VHS ST $22.33 8,155 - 14,158 8,241 2,641 74,586 43,950 6 151,737
4 WE WERE SOLDIERS PARA 8/20/02 4 78.12 D/D VHS RENTAL $19.95 1,374 19 7,549 2,150 1,207 25,801 11,760 7 49,867
5 ROOKIE-PS DISN 8/27/02 3 75.35 D/D VHS ST $20.16 6,985 3,260 12,155 6,486 1,737 6,109 2,536 1 39,269
6 HIGH CRIMES FOX 8/27/02 3 41.52 D/D VHS RENTAL $20.02 535 - 6,195 1,037 1,167 16,511 5,582 2 31,029
7 VAN WILDER-UNRATED ARTI 8/20/02 4 21.08 D/D VHS RENTAL $19.97 38 - - - - 19,821 11,042 3 30,904
8 LORD OF THE RINGS-2001-WS NEWL 8/6/02 6 312.2 D/D VHS ST $22.79 307 - 3,452 815 962 12,441 9,672 - 27,649
9 9/11-FILMMAKERS COMMEMORATIVE PARA 9/10/02 1 NOT COLL D/D VHS ST $20.14 847 - 6,288 - 1,035 12,018 7,130 10 27,328
10 ROOKIE-WS DISN 8/27/02 3 75.35 D/D VHS ST $23.70 175 582 5 - 4 20,447 5,971 1 27,185
11 MICKEYS HOUSE OF VILLAINS DISN 9/3/02 2 NOT COLL D/D VHS ST $20.22 4,501 1,766 5,473 2,090 1,095 9,686 2,145 1 26,757
12 RESERVOIR DOGS-10TH ANNIVERSAR ARTI 8/27/02 3 2.832 CATALOG $19.91 8 - 3,481 684 625 12,906 8,213 12 25,929
13 LORD OF THE RINGS-2001-PS NEWL 8/6/02 6 313.1 D/D VHS ST $23.23 3,869 1,946 3,833 1,594 684 6,284 4,414 - 22,624
14 PULP FICTION-COLLECTORS EDITIO DISN 8/20/02 4 107.9 CATALOG $19.95 58 - 2,089 591 532 13,274 5,306 - 21,850
15 NEAR DARK ABAY 9/24/02 -1 3.369 CATALOG $20.00 - - - 404 19 19,638 856 7 20,924
16 IN MEMORIAM-NEW YORK CITY 9/11 HBO 9/3/02 2 NOT COLL D/D VHS ST $16.80 2,511 3,868 4,128 900 511 5,724 2,601 4 20,247
17 ALL ABOUT THE BENJAMINS NEWL 8/20/02 4 25.50 D/D VHS ST $19.91 217 - 2,846 415 527 9,818 6,355 - 20,178
18 SOPRANOS-THIRD SEASON 5PK HBO 8/27/02 3 NOT COLL D/D VHS ST $79.53 108 - 1,753 246 112 11,366 6,242 4 19,831
19 SCHOOLHOUSE ROCK-30TH ANNIVERS DISN 8/27/02 3 NOT COLL D/D VHS ST $19.43 817 - 4,721 684 1,041 7,126 2,567 1,141 18,097
20 CNN TRIBUTE-AMERICA REMEMBERS TURN 8/19/02 4 NOT COLL D/D VHS ST $9.60 774 - 5,358 - 671 8,766 1,717 2 17,288
21 RETURN TO NEVERLAND DISN 8/20/02 4 48.43 D/D VHS ST $20.40 2,326 1,096 3,565 1,416 274 3,044 2,306 - 14,027
22 QUEEN OF THE DAMNED-FS WHV 8/27/02 3 30.32 D/D VHS ST $19.84 816 - 4,598 1,411 1,386 3,195 2,084 3 13,493
23 QUEEN OF THE DAMNED-WS WHV 8/27/02 3 30.32 D/D VHS ST NOT COLL - - - - - 7,320 5,053 - 12,373
24 SIMPSONS-SEASON 2 4PK FOX 8/6/02 6 NOT COLL CATALOG $39.59 37 - 1,733 114 374 6,584 3,439 - 12,281
25 COLLATERAL DAMAGE WHV 7/30/02 7 40.06 D/D VHS RENTAL $20.51 139 507 1,247 299 415 6,952 2,241 2 11,802
VideoScan Weekly POS
DVD2002 WEEKLY POS-TOP 100
WEEK ENDING 09/14/02
19 CTHE Research Dept.
Sample Data from Nielsen VideoScan
Nielsen MarketNavigator• SQL server-based software platform complete with
applications designed specifically for the home entertainment industry
• Provides unique view of the retail and marketing landscape• MarketNavigator is a data/information repository containing
thousands of consumer purchase potential and behavioral profiles as well as demographic information on thousands of retail stores.
• System allows for extensive analysis of proprietary client sales and survey data.
• Built-in databases include:•Demographic data and PRIZM lifestyle information from Claritas•National consumer data from Simmons Market Research Bureau•Local market consumer data from Scarborough Research•Store lists with gravity model trade areas from Spectra
20 CTHE Research Dept.
Nielsen MarketNavigator
• Purchase potential for DVD/VHS releases (new and catalog)• Retailer insight (e.g. detail about consumers in store trade
areas)• Store cluster development (e.g. Hispanic clusters, Art House
clusters, etc.)• Targeting applications (e.g, selection of the best markets,
retailers, and consumer segments for specific products)• Product allocation models that enable clients to optimize their
product distribution at the individual store level• Marketing/co-promotion partner identification and ranking
(e.g. beverages, consumer packaged goods, electronics, etc.)• Media mix optimization (e.g. print, television, radio, etc.)• Data warehousing (storage and retrieval of sales data by title,
store, and week)
21 CTHE Research Dept.
Movie Satisfaction: xXx
• 67% of DVD buyers and 44% of VHS buyers surveyed considered xXx to be “very good” or “excellent”
Movie Satisfaction - DVD Buyers xXx
Austin Powers Blood Work Blue Crush
K-19: The Widowmaker Signs
Excellent/Very Good 67% 60% 73% 66% 58% 69%
Excellent 41% 24% 19% 31% 17% 32%
Good 27% 29% 19% 31% 42% 18%
Fair/Poor 6% 10% 8% 3% 0% 12%
Movie Satisfaction - VHS Buyers xXx
Austin Powers Blood Work Blue Crush
K-19: The Widowmaker Signs
Excellent/Very Good 44% 53% 70% 50% 75% 76%
Excellent 17% 14% 17% 29% 13% 33%
Good 39% 31% 17% 36% 19% 18%
Fair/Poor 17% 16% 13% 14% 6% 5%
22 CTHE Research Dept.
Note: “Excellent/Very Good” percentages are the sums of those who answered “Excellent” and those who answered “Very Good,” thus columns do not add to 100%.
Buyer Demographics: MIB II
• Men in Black II has a relatively balanced appeal for both males & females aged 18-54 (for both formats) • Of the DVD & VHS buyers with positive purchase intent for MIB II, the film appeals most strongly to males aged 18-34
DVD Buyer IndicesMen in Black II Like Mike
Scooby Doo
Star Wars: Episode II
Minority Report
Bourne Identity
Females 18-34 118 247 143 116 154 154Males 18-34 146 82 119 174 179 144Females 35-54 129 114 149 107 64 88Males 35-54 129 88 124 136 140 14555-64 19 26 9 32 26 3165+ 19 18 9 7 15 9Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
VHS Buyer IndicesMen in Black II
Like Mike**
Scooby Doo
Star Wars: Episode II
Minority Report
The Bourne
Identity**Females 18-34 105 124 150 94 82 60Males 18-34 154 53 111 134 222 91Females 35-54 133 208 173 100 97 124Males 35-54 112 92 87 165 105 16655-64 47 37 33 75 45 6965+ 21 37 10 9 35 57Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
23 CTHE Research Dept.
Note: An index above 100 indicates an above-average representation of a particular demographic group (e.g. with an index of 154, a male VHS buyer aged 18-34 is 1.54 times more likely to be a Men in Black II buyer than the average US individual).
• 56% of DVD buyers with positive purchase intent for Stuart Little II on DVD said they would purchase it by the 4th week after release
• 43% of VHS buyers with positive purchase intent for Stuart Little II on VHS said they would purchase it by the 4th week after release
Positive Purchase Intent - DVD Buyers
Pre-Order through 4th
Week of Release
Spy Kids 2 77%
Scooby Doo 67%
Lilo & Stich 66%
Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron 58%
Stuart Little 2 56%
The Country Bears 52%
Positive Purchase Intent -VHS Buyers
Pre-Order through 4th
Week of Release
Lilo & Stich 54%
Scooby Doo 51%
Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron 47%
The Country Bears 44%
Spy Kids 2 44%
Stuart Little 2 43%
Purchase Timing: Stuart Little 2
24 CTHE Research Dept.
Thank you!
• Contact information:Brady DarvinResearch ManagerColumbia TriStar Home Entertainment10202 West Washington Blvd., SPP 2418Culver City, CA 90232PH: (310) 244-3896E-mail: [email protected]
25 CTHE Research Dept.