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8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
1/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >
Gay akcgcelk {|{aeN kceecg np {|{ae jcr nhh gnlcg{
O| ZLFN\N M_Q[@GN ZN_ENL ne {qiia{lgi gay ea`cb{ ecbah{ ngb lggcznlza ngb nhargnlza tchlkla{ lg
`a nran{ cj ecganr| {|{ae oqbia tratnrnlcg ongmlgi jlgngka {|{ae tqohlk jlgngka
ctlenh npnlcg np kchhaklcg np kcethlngka {qo{lbla{ecga| {qtth| ngb jl{knh tchlk| c
`aht raecza kcrrqtlcg np azn{lcg akcgcelk raka{{lcg ohnkm ecga| jnma kqrragk|
rng{ce{ rcooarla{ ngb {cklanh lga~qnhlla{' Lg e| ctlglcg `a trctc{ab gay akcgcelk
{|{ae en| q{`ar lg iccb iczargngka >44! np kcethlngka ngb kcrrqtlcg jraa agzlrcgeag'
L {qiia{{ n {lgiha np knhhab RCT Rnp (Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a Rnp, jcr oc` Kagra ngb [na{
kceolgab lg thnka cj tra{ag eqhltha Lgblrak npa{ yl` bljjarag {hno rna{ cg bljjarag
iccb{#kceecblla{#{arzlka{ ngb eqhltha Blrak npa{ yl` bljjarag {hno rna{ rahlazlgi :''Lgkcea Rnp
?'kcrtcrnlcg Rnp
;'kntlnh inlg{ Rnp
2'yanh` Rnp1'[akqrlla{ rng{nklcg Rnp
:'Kagrnh Apkl{a bq|
9'Kq{ce{ bq|
0'[arzlka Rnp
>'hngb razagqa
>?'Trcja{{lcgnh Rnp
>;'[na Apkl{a
>2'ckrcl
>1'{qrk`nria{ ngb c`ar
ka{{
>:' Trctar| Rnp
>9' Ilj Rnp
>0' K[R
>
1-:-0-4->?->2->1->9->05
Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a Rnp (RCT Rnp,
[na{ ngb Kagra kceolgab,2!
?
>-;-25
Trcjl np (Rcnhh| nzclbnoha, jcr
[na{ ngb Kagra kceolgab;4!
; Kcrtcrnlcg Rnp o| Kagra (ctlcgnh, ?4!
2Kq{ce{ bq| o| Kagra (ctlcgnh,
1 Apka{{ hngb np ([na{ ngb Kagra
kceolgab, ctlcgnh
: [na Apkl{a o| [na{
R`ara ylhh oa cgh| cga engbncr| np knhhab RCT Rnp yl` {lgiha {hno rna(2!, jcr oc` Kagra
ngb [na{ kceolgab lg `a trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae' R`a Trcjl np lg thnka cj tra{ag
Lgkcea np ngb kntlnh inlg{ np ylhh oa nkkcqg on{lk ngb cnhh| nzclbnoha qghlma lgblzlbqnh
on{lk ngb kcetqh{cr| lg `a tra{ag {|{ae' Jcr khanr qgbar{ngblgi than{a {aa noha gqeoar
> ngb ? lg tnia gqeoar : ngb 9' Trcjl npeang{ l ylhh oa letc{ab cg tar{cg{ lgkcea{ (lj
raenlgab ng|, anrgab#ic `rcqi` {nhnr| raeqgarnlcg oq{lga{{ lgbq{r| bcgnlcg{ ngb
ilj{ njar hloarnhh| q{ab cg aptagblqra#{tagblgi znrlcq{ lgza{eag{ ilj{ ngb bcgnlcg{' Lg
`a tra{ag {|{ae tar{cgnh Lgkcea np l{ hazlab cg lgkcea{ anrgab#ic `rcqi` {nhnr|
raeqgarnlcg oq{lga{{ ilj{ bcgnlcg{ ngb {nha trckaab{ (`cyazar yl` {cea apaetlcg{,
oajcra q{ab cg aptagblqra#{tagblgi bcgnlcg{ ngb znrlcq{ lgza{eag{' Qgbar trctc{ab
RCT Rnp {|{ae `a Kcrtcrnlcg Rnp ngb Kq{ce bq|#Letcr bq| kng oa hazlab o| `a Kagrnh
iczargeag n{ q{qnh c {nza {enhh {knha ngb bcea{lk lgbq{rla{ ra{taklzah|' [lelhnrh| `a
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
3/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ;
apkl{a bq| cg hl~qcr ngb ylga{ kng oa hazlab o| `a [na iczargeag{ n{ qgbar `a tra{ag
{|{ae c lg`lol `anz| kcg{qetlcg ngb nbblklcg'
Blrak oagajl{ cj `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae
Qgbar {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `ara ylhh oa gc [nha{ Rnp (ZNR, Kagrnh Apkl{a Bq|
(KAGZNR, [arzlka Rnp ngb c`ar Lgblrak Rnpa{'
Oagajl{6
>' R`arajcra nhh `a k`akm tc{{ nkrc{{ `a kcqgr| gaab c oa raeczab nhhcylgi jraa
eczaeag cj lgbq{rlnh iccb{#kceecblla{ ngb nirlkqhqra trcbqka jrce ng|y`ara c
ng|y`ara lg azar| RCT Rnp [|{ae lethaeagab kcqgr| `q{ oagajllgi krcra{ cj jnrear{
rnbar{ lgbq{rlnhl{{ ngb ecra letcrngh| kcg{qear{'
?' R`a aglra rqkm cygar{ ylhh oagajl n{ `a| gaab gc tn| orloa{ n k`akm tc{{' R`a| gaab
gc knrr| yn| olhh{ y`lha rng{tcrlgi kceecblla{ jrce cga thnka c ngc`ar thnka ng|y`ara
lg `n RCT Rnp [|{ae lethaeagab kcqgr|'
;' R`a aglra jnrelgi kceeqgl| ylhh oagajl n{ `a| kng rng{tcr `alr nirlkqhqra trcbqka
jrce ng|y`ara c ng|y`ara lg `a kcqgr| ngb {ahh `alr trcbqka n enrma trlka{'
2' Rrnbar{ oq{lga{{eag kcgrnkcr{ {arzlka trczlbar{ {enhh {knha lgbq{rlnhl{{ ngb c`ar{
gaab gc enlgnlg nkkcqg occm{ {ckm hl{{ {nha{ hl{{ ak' Gc nkkcqglgi ngb nqbllgi ylhh oa
gaabab jcr rqgglgi `alr oq{lga{{#lgbq{r| jcr n{{a{{eag tqrtc{a'
Qgbar tra{ag {|{ae `a bljjarag {hno rna{ cj [nha{ Rnp (ZNR, o| `a [na iczargeag{ ngb
bljjarag {hno rna{ cj Kagrnh Apkl{a Bq| ngb [arzlka Rnp cg bljjarag kceecblla{ ngb
{arzlka{ nra hanblgi c kcethapl| ngb neoliql| jcr oc` engqjnkqrar{ ngb rnbar{' R`l{ nh{c
hanb{ c np azn{lcg ngb kcrrqtlcg' Qgbar trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `ara ylhh oa gc ZNR
({nha{ np, Kagrnh Apkl{a bq| (apkat cg knr{ conkkc trcbqk{ ngb {cj brlgm{, [arzlka np
ngb c`ar Lgblrak npa{'
Qgbar trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `ara ylhh oa gc Lgkcea Rnp ngb c`ar Blrak npa{'
Oagajl{6
[c qgbar {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae tactha y`c `nza npnoha lgkcea{ `rcqi` {nhnr|#
raeqgarnlcg#trcja{{lcgnh lgkcea#bcgnlcg#ilj#{arzlka#oq{lga{{#lgbq{r| ylhh oagajl n{ `a|
gaab gc tn| Lgkcea np#c`ar Blrak npa{ ngb {qoel Lgkcea Rnp raqrg{ nggqnhh|' :'< olhhlcg
Tactha cj `a ycrhb ylhh oa qg{`nkmhab jrce npa{ np hny{ np rnlb{ np raqrg{ hlkag{a{
tarel{ nkkcqglgi nqbllgi ngb kcrrqtlcg'
?'''''''''''Ea`cb cj Lethaeagnlcg cj RCT np {|{ae6 On{lk ecbah (Lgbln,
Y`n l{ ra~qlrab jcr RCT np {|{ae c oa {qkka{{jqhh| lethaeagab l{ `a {rcgi tchllknh ylhhc oqlhb `a on{lk lgjrn{rqkqra cj trczlblgi ongmlgi {arzlka jcr azar| zlhhnia#{qoqro#cyg cr
kchcg| `nzlgi n tctqhnlcg cj nrcqgb ?444 yl` `a `aht cj trlzna {akcr ongm{ ngb
lg{lqlcg{'
R`a Kagrnh iczargeag {`cqhb ilza n tarengag nkkcqg gqeoar (TNG, o| q{lgi olcearlk
ea`cb ngb Lrl{ lbagljlknlcg c azar| kllvag nocza `a nia cj >1 |anr{ ngb enma engbncr|
jcr azar| kllvag c `nza cgh| cga Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, yl` `a {nea TNG lg `a
ongm#{arzlka kagra {lqnab n `a zlhhnia cr kchcg| y`ara `a hlza{ lg' R`a TNG ngb E[N
gqeoar {`cqhb oa cga ngb {nea'
Azar| kllvag ycqhb oa nhhcyab c ctag ng| gqeoar cj[qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ ([[N, n{ `a#{`a
yl{`a{ c ctarna oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| lg n{ eng| ongm{ o| q{lgi (E[N, gqeoar'
Qgbar trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `a nkkcqglgi ngb nqbllgi cj `a kcrtcrna cr tqohlk
kcetngla{ ylhh oa engbncr| ngb kcetqh{cr| n{ lg `a tra{ag {|{ae jcr trcaklgi `a
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
4/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia 2
lgara{{ cj `a lgza{cr{' Kcrtcrna cr tqohlk kcetngla{ ylhh oa ilzag Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg
Gqeoar{ (KNG,'
R`a Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, {`cqhb oa q{ab jcr oq|lgi cj {`nra{ hngb jcr nirlkqhqra cr
lgbq{rlnh tqrtc{a thc{ jhn{ ichb fayahhar| za`lkha{ kceearklnh a{nohl{`eag{ cr ng|
c`ar ecznoha cr leecznoha trctar|' R`a E[N {`nhh nh{c oa q{ab c rakalza cr tn| {nhnrla{
trcja{{lcgnh jaa{ {arzlka jaa{ raeqgarnlcg{ bcgnlcg{ hcng{ ak' Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg l{
nh{c gaabab c ia brlzlgi hlkagka tn{{tcr zclgi rli` {qo{lbla{ jqgb{ ecg`h| rnlcg
tag{lcg{ raelngka{ ngb hcng{ (tar{cgnh nirlkqhqra oq{lga{{ abqknlcgnh ngb lgbq{rlnh,
ngb jcr ialgi kcetag{nlcg#apirnln#rahlaj jqgb{ lg `a azag cj gnqrnh knhnella{ hlma
k|khcga{ anr`~qnma{ jhccb{ jnelga{ nkklbag{ ak'
R`a [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ ([[N, ngb nh{c `a Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ (E[N, kng oa q{ab jcr
rqgglgi oq{lga{{ lgbq{r| {k`cch{ kchhaia{ `c{tlnh{ `cah{ ra{nqrng{ kcg{rqklcg
{qblc{ {arzlka{ cr ng| c`ar |ta cj oq{lga{{' Fq{ hlma E[N `a [[N kng nh{c oa q{ab c
rakalza cr tn| {nhnrla{ trcja{{lcgnh jaa{ {arzlka jaa{ raeqgarnlcg{ bcgnlcg{ hcng{ ak'R`a kcrtcrna cr tqohlk kcetngla{ ylhh `nza c ctarna nhh kn{` rng{nklcg{ `rcqi` `a
Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar (KNG, cgh|'
Njar a{nohl{`lgi {qjjlklag gqeoar cj ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ o| `a Iczargeag (jcr apnetha
Lgbln, yl` `a `aht cj trlzna {akcr ongm{ ngb jlgngklnh lg{lqlcg{ nhh `a kllvag{ {`cqhb oa
n{mab c batc{l nhh `a kqrragk| gca{ cj >444 144 >44 ngb 14 rqtaa{ apkat ?4 >4 1 ?
rqtaa gca{#kclg{ nznlhnoha yl` `ae lg `a{a ongm{ lg `alr gayh| ilzag Enlg [nzlgi{
Nkkcqg(E[N, cr [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ ([[N, yl`lg n {ltqhnab lea cj ;4 bn|{' Nhh tra{agh|
rqg {nzlgi{ nkkcqg{ ngb kqrrag nkkcqg{ {`cqhb oa kcgzarab lg c [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{
([[N{, yl` `a {nea nkkcqg gqeoar{ ngb kng oa ctarnab jrce `a {nea ongm{' [lelhnrh|
tactha y`c `nza ecga| lg `a jlpab batc{l{#JB_{ ylhh `nza c rng{jar nhh `alr ecga| jrce`a{a jlpab batc{l{#JB_{ c `alr ra{taklza gayh| ilzag E[N{ cr gayh| ctagab#kcgzarab
[[N{ yl`lg `a {nea {ltqhnab tarlcb cj ;4 bn|{'
Njar `l{ irnka tarlcb cj ;4 bn|{ `a Iczargeag (jcr apnetha Lgbln, gaab{ c baecgal{a
nhh gca{ cj bagcelgnlcg >444 144 >44 ngb 14 rqtaa gca{ apkat ?4 >4 1 ngb ? rqtaa
gca{' Jrce `ag cg `a RCT np {|{ae oakcea{ ctarnlcgnh' Azar| tar{cg {`nhh oa nhhcyab
c yl`brny kn{` qt c enpleqe cj rqtaa{ 1444 tar ecg` jrce `l{#`ar anrglgi{ cr {nzlgi{
nznlhnoha lg `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg cgh|' R`q{ n jnelh| cj yc kng nznlh kn{` cj >4444
rqtaa{ enpleqe tar ecg` enlgh| c oq| bnlh| gaka{{lla{ hlma zaianoha{ elhm jrql{ abloha{
irckarla{ ngb nhh c`ar {enhh cr hcy znhqab lae{' N tar{cg{ enpleqe kn{` yl`brnynh cj
1444 tar ecg` jrce `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, `rcqi` ongm cr NRE ylhh oa lg _{?4 _{ >4 ngb _{' 1 gca{ cgh|' N tar{cg kng ia {cea tcrlcg cj `l{#`ar lgkcea{#anrglgi{
rng{jarrab blrakh| lg c E[N{ cj `l{#`ar c`ar gcg anrglgi jnelh| eaeoar{ jrce {cqrka cj
`l{#`ar lgkcea{#anrglgi{ {c `n `l{#`ar jnelh| kng yl`brny ecra kn{` (kqrragk|, tar ecg`'
Azar| lgblzlbqnh{ lgkcea{ ngb {nzlgi{ ylhh oa lg baenarlnhl{ab jcre lg `l{#`ar E[N cr [[N{'
C`ar `ng kn{` yl`brnynh{ cj enpleqe _{' 1444 tar ecg` jrce `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{
Nkkcqg (E[N, gc tar{cg ylhh oa nhhcyab c yl`brny kn{` jrce `l{#`ar [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{
([[N,' Azar| lea n tar{cg oq|{ `li` znhqab lae{ iccb{ za`lkha{ hngb thc jhn ichb
fayahhar| za`lkha{ cr ng| c`ar ecznoha cr leecznoha trctar| nznlh{ t`|{lknh cr lgahhakqnh
{arzlka{ cr lg kn{a `a#{`a hagb{ bcgna{ ecga| c c`ar{ `ag `a#{`a gaab{ c rng{jar `a
ra~qlrab ecga| jrce `l{#`ar [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg#Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg `rcqi` k`a~qabaol knrb cr ga ongmlgi (cghlga kn{` rng{jar{,' Oq{lga{{eag rnbar{ lgbq{rlnhl{{ ylhh `nza
c enma `alr kn{` rng{jar{ jcr nhh rng{nklcg{ `rcqi` k`a~qa baol knrb cr ga ongmlgi
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
5/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia 1
(cghlga kn{` rng{jar, jrce `alr [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{#Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg' [lelhnrh| n
tar{cg{ {nhnr| cr raeqgarnlcg cr trcja{{lcgnh jaa ngb nhh `l{#`ar lgkcea{ jrce oq{lga{{ cr
lgbq{r| ylhh oa krablab c `alr [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ cr Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg `rcqi`
k`a~qa{ baol knrb cr ga ongmlgi (cghlga kn{` rng{jar{,' Nhh `raa nkkcqg{ gneah| KNG [[N
ngb E[N kng oa qlhl{ab c rakalza tn| cr {cra lgkcea{#anrglgi{#{nzlgi{#bcgnlcg{#hcng{'
Oq kn{` kng oa yl`brnyg cgh| jrce E[N (lj nznlhnoha, qt c enpleqe _{' 1444 tar ecg`
tar tar{cg' R`a raenlglgi nznlhnoha ecga| (baenarlnhl{ab jcre, jrce E[N kng oa q{ab cr
{tag `rcqi` baol knrb k`a~qa cr cghlga kn{` rng{jar'
Jcr azar| rng{jar cj necqg n 2! Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a np (RCT Rnp, cj `n necqg ylhh oa
nqcenlknhh| babqkab jrce `l{#`ar E[N#[[N nkkcqg' R`l{ 2! np necqg cg azar| kn{`
rng{nklcg `rcqi` E[N#[[N#KNG jrce nhh ongm{ lg n tnrlkqhnr [na ylhh ic c `a kceolgab
nkkcqg cj [na ngb Kagra lg `n tnrlkqhnr [na' ;4! cj `l{ necqg jrce azar| [na ngb
Kagra kceolgab nkkcqg [NKKN, ylhh ic c Kagrnh iczargeag tcch nkkcqg' R`a raenlglgi
94! ylhh oa ranlgab o| `a ra{taklza [na iczargeag{' R`l{ 2! Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a (RCTnp, kng oa rabqkab c ?! yl`lg 2 |anr{ jrce `a nbctlcg cj `l{ RCT np {|{ae o| rabqklgi
4'14 on{l{ tclg{ tar |anr' R`l{ ylhh jqr`ar rabqka `a trlka{ cj `a kceecblla{ oagajllgi
kcg{qear{' Nhh iczargeag nkkcqg{ ngb ongm{ ylhh `nza c oa apaetab jrce `l{ RCT np'
Zlzlb apthngnlcg6 R`l{ 2! Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a Rnp (RCT Rnp, cg ank` kn{` rng{jar
lrra{taklza cj `a ran{cg jcr {qk` rng{jar (tqrk`n{a ilj bcgnlcg {nhnr|#raeqgarnlcg cr
ng| c`ar tqrtc{a, ctarnab `rcqi` Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ (E[N,# [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{
([[N,# Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar{ (KNG, ngb ctarnab o| ng| ongm cr {arzlka kagra ylhh oa
nqcenlknhh| babqkab jrce `n nkkcqg ngb rng{jarrab c [na ngb Kagra{ kceolgab
nkkcqg ([NKKN,' R`a RCT Rnp ylhh oa `a {nea ngb qgljcre `rcqi`cq `a kcqgr| cg nhh kn{`
rng{jar{ enba `rcqi` cghlga#k`a~qa#BB jrce nhh nkkcqg{ cynrb{ tqrk`n{a ilj bcgnlcgngb {nhnr|#jaa#raeqgarnlcg' [c lg `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `a np on{a ylhh oa `a
hnria{ c `nza `a elgleqe {hno rna ngb `a hcya{ np kcetcgag cg ank`
kceecbl|#{arzlka' Tactha ylhh ia kceecblla{#{arzlka{ n `a hcya{ trlka{ `ng lg `a
tra{ag {|{ae' Jqr`arecra `a cnh razagqa{ iagarnab jrce RCT Rnp jrce nhh kn{`
rng{jar{ jrce nhh nkkcqg{ ylhh oa ecra `ng bcqoha `ng `a kceolgab razagqa{ cj nhh [na{
ngb Kagra ic jrce tra{ag eqhltha npa{ yl` bljjarag {hno rna{' Yl` hlelab tntar
kqrragk| ngb baenarlnhl{ab ecga| lg `a RCT np {|{ae azar| rng{nklcg ylhh oa
rng{tnrag batlklgi `a nkqnh IBT cj `a kcqgr|' Lg hlarnh {ag{a azar| tqrk`n{a ilj
bcgnlcg ngb nhh |ta{ cj tn|eag{ ylhh `nza c oa knrrlab `rcqi` cghlga kn{` rng{jar{ jrce
cga nkkcqg c ngc`ar nkkcqg oaknq{a cj hlelab tntar kqrragk|' R`a cnh razagqa{ icjrce RCT Rnp ylhh oa nttrcplenah| a~qnh c ;p2 !( >?!, cj nkqnh znhqa cj `a IBT cj `n
kcqgr| lg `a engqjnkqrar banhar ranlhar ngb kcg{qear k`nlg' N{ iccb{ kceecblla{
{arzlka{ bcgnlcg{ t`|{lknh ngb lgahhakqnh ycm{ k`ngia `ngb{ lg `a engqjnkqrar banhar
ranlhar ngb kcg{qear k`nlg baenarlnhl{ab ecga| ylhh oa rng{jarrab jrce cga nkkcqg c
ngc`ar nkkcqg kcrra{tcgblgih|' R`q{ azar| kn{` rng{jar cynrb{ tqrk`n{a ilj bcgnlcg
{nhnr|#raeqgarnlcg cr ng| c`ar tqrtc{a ylhh oa nkkcqgab ngb yl`lg `a {|{ae ahlelgnlgi
qgbarircqgb#{`nbcy#qgratcrab#`lbbag rng{nklcg{ ctarnab o| t`|{lknh kqrragk| ic jrce
ohnkm ecga| ngb jnma kqrragk| lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae' Lg `a tra{ag {|{ae `a
tnrnhhah akcgce| oalgi rqg o| ohnkm ecga| ngb jnma kqrragk| l{ co{kqrlgi `a ranh IBT ngb
`netarlgi cr hcyarlgi `a kchhaklcg cj razagqa{' R`a RCT Rnp {|{ae ylhh ahlelgna `a ohnkmecga| ngb jnma kqrragkla{ n cga ic ngb batlk `a apnk IBT cj `a kcqgr|' R`a c`ar {nhlag
janqra cj `a RCT Rnp {|{ae l{ `a oaar akcgcelk engniaeag ngb nq{arl|' R`a
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
6/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia :
lgblzlbqnh{ y`c rqg oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| ylhh oa rahlazab jrce neoliqcq{ np {rqkqra{
tha`crn cj np hny{ ngb engbncr| {nha{ hl{{ {ckm hl{{ nkkcqglgi nqbllgi ngb np raqrg{'
Lg nbbllcg c `a Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a (RCT, np n Trcjl Rnp (TR, cj ;4! ycqhb oa hazlab ngb
nqcenlknhh| babqkab cgka n |anr cg `a elgleqe necqg rakcrbab lg `a jlgngklnh |anr cj
Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, ngb ank` [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ([[N, lj ng| cj azar| kllvag' R`a
jlgngklnh |anr cj `a E[N cj n tar{cg oailg{ n `a bna `a Iczargeag nhhc{ `le#`ar `a
E[N' R`a jlgngklnh |anr cj `a [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ([[N, ylhh oailg n `a bna n tar{cg
k`cc{a{ c ctag `l{#`ar [[N' R`l{ Trcjl Rnp (TR, l{ ng nkkcqg on{lk ngb l l{ cnhh| lrrahazng
y`c cyg{ `n nkkcqg (E[N#[[N,' R`a Trcjl Rnp ;4! cj elgleqe onhngka necqg rakcrbab
lg `a E[N ngb ank` [[N (lj ng|, cj azar| tar{cg ylhh oa nqcenlknhh| babqkab cg `a hn{
bn| cj `a jlgngklnh |anr cj `n E[N ngb [[N (lj ng|, cj ank` tar{cg' R`a Trcjl np lg `a gap
jlgngklnh |anr cj `n tnrlkqhnr E[N#[[N ylhh oa hazlab cg `a elgleqe onhngka rakcrbab cj
`n |anr elgq{ `a trazlcq{ |anr{ npab necqg cj `n tnrlkqhnr E[N#[[N ligcrlgi `a
enpleqe necqg `cyazar `qia en| oa' R`q{ `a babqkab Trcjl np ;4! cj elgleqeonhngka necqg rakcrbab lg `a E[N ngb ank` [[N (lj ng|, cj azar| tar{cg lg n tnrlkqhnr
[na ylhh oa rng{jarrab c `n [na ngb kagra{ kceolgab nkkcqg ([NKKN,' R`a kceolgab
npa{ cj RCT Rnp ngb Trcjl np kchhakab lg azar| [na ngb Kagra{ kceolgab nkkcqg
([NKKN, ylhh `nza c oa {`nrab oayaag `n tnrlkqhnr [na ngb Kagra lg `a rnlc cj `n
tnrlkqhnr [na ialgi 94! ngb Kagra ;4!' @agka `a cnhh| ctlcgnh ngb nzclbnoha Trcjl
Rnp ylhh ag{qra `n `a ecga| ylhh oa kcg{ngh| tqetab onkm lgc {|{ae maatlgi `a
akcgcelk ircy` n `anh`| rna' Lg `a tra{ag {|{ae `a `qia ohnkm ecga| iagarnab o|
`lbbag#{`nbcy nkkcqg{ kceolgab yl` `qia jnma kqrragk| l{ thn|lgi `nzck yl` cqr
akcgce|' Oa{lba{ `a{a yc npa{ gneah| RCT Rnp ngb Trcjl np y`lk` kng oa nzclbnoha `a
Kagrnh Iczargeag {`nhh letc{a `a kq{ce{ bq| (letcr bq|, ngb Kcrtcrnlcg np n{ lg `aapl{lgi {|{ae' Apkat `a{a jcqr npa{ `a RCT Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ raecznh cj nhh c`ar
Blrak npa{ Lgblrak npa{ ngb znrlcq{ {qrk`nria{ hazlab lg `a tra{ag {|{ae'
R`a jchhcylgi yc noha{ khanrh| lhhq{rna `cy cnhh| nzclbnoha Trcjl Rnp l{ babqkab jrce
[[N ngb E[N cj n tar{cg cg elgleqe onhngka necqg{ rakcrbab lg ank` jlgngklnh |anr
apkhqblgi `a trazlcq{ cr hn{ npab necqg'
Apnetha>6 L {`cy{ `cy `a Trcjl np cg elgleqe onhngka necqg{ rakcrbab ank` |anr
apkhqblgi `a trazlcq{ cr hn{ npab necqg ylhh oa babqkab jrce ank` [qo [nzlgi{ nkkcqg
([[N, ctarnab o| n ongm#{arzlka kagra lrra{taklza cj `a jnk `n y`c `chb{ `n nkkcqg'
\anr
Elgleqe
onhngka cj`a |anr
Enpleqe
Onhngka cj`a |anr
Trcjl Rnp (TR, cg `a Elg'
Ne' R`a hn{ npab necqg
Ga Trcjl Rnp
(TR,Babqkab
?449%40 >4444 1444444 ;4! cj >4444 ;444'44
?440%4< 24444 9444444 ;4! cj (24444%>4444, 4%>> ?4444 ?4444444 % %
?4>>%>? >14444 144444 ;4! cj (>14444%0444'44
?4>?%>; >14444 >444444 % %
?4>;%>2 ?44444 0444444 ;4! cj (?44444%>14444, >1444'44
?4>2%>1 >4444444 ?4444444 ;4! cj (>4444444%?44444, ?
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
7/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia 9
Apnetha6 ? % L {`cy{ `cy `a Trcjl np cg elgleqe onhngka necqg{ rakcrbab lg ank`
jlgngklnh |anr apkhqblgi `a trazlcq{ cr hn{ npab necqg ylhh oa babqkab jrce ank` Enlg
[nzlgi{ nkkcqg (E[N, ctarnab o| n ongm#{arzlka kagra lrra{taklza cj `a jnk `n y`c
`chb{ `n nkkcqg'
\anr
Elgleqe
onhngka cj
`a |anr
Enpleqe
Onhngka cj `a
|anr
Trcjl Rnp (TR, cg `a Elg'
Ne' R`a hn{ npab necqg
Ga Trcjl Rnp
(TR,Babqkab
?449%40 ?4%>> ?44444 044444 % %
?4>>%>? 214444 144444 ;4! cj (214444%244444, >1444'44
?4>?%>; 214444 >444444 % %
?4>;%>2 :44444 0444444 ;4! cj (:44444%214444, 21444'44
Gcy l l{ khanrh| qgbar{ccb `n `a Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a (RCT, Rnp ylhh oa {nea cg kn{`
rng{jar{ lg nhh `raa nkkcqg{ gneah| Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ([[N,
ngb Kcrtcrnlcg Nkkcqg Gqeoar (KNG,'R`a Trcjl Rnp l{ nh{c {nea lg Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg
ngb [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg apkat `a elgleqe {crnia onhngka lg Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N,'
R`a Trcjl Rnp cg elgleqe onhngka lg Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ylhh oa hazlab jrce _{' ; hnm`{
cgynrb{' R`a Trcjl Rnp cg elgleqe onhngka lg [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg {nr{ jrce varc
cgynrb{' Lg `a kn{a cj Kcrtcrnlcg Nkkcqg Gqeoar (KNG, `a Trcjl Rnp ylhh `nza c oa
hazlab lg `a jcre cjKcrtcrnlcg Rnp n{ lg `a apl{lgi {|{ae'
Than{a gca `n ank` tar{cg ylhh `nza cgh| cga tarengag ngb hlja lea Enlg [nzlgi{
Nkkcqg(E[N, oq kng `nza n{ eng| [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ([[N, n{ `a#{`a kng yl{`' [lelhnrh|
`a Trcjl Rnp ylhh oa cg nkkcqg on{lk ngb cnhh| nzclbnoha lg{anb cj lgblzlbqnh on{lk ngb
kcetqh{cr| n{ lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae' Than{a nh{c gca `n `a Trcjl Rnp cg
elgleqe onhngka rakcrbab lg ank` |anr lg Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ylhh oa hazlab jrce _{' ;
44444 cgynrb{' Lg `a tra{ag {|{ae `a Lgkcea Rnp nkkcqglgi nqbllgi ngb np raqrg{
nra kcetqh{cr|' [c tar{cg{ y`c `nza npnoha lgkcea{ `rcqi` {nhnr| cr oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| cr
raeqgarnlcg gaab c {qoel Lgkcea Rnp raqrg{ nggqnhh|' Oq RCT Rnp {|{ae{ Trcjl np
eang{ l ylhh oa letc{ab cg tar{cg{ lgkcea{ ic `rcqi` {nhnr| raeqgarnlcg oq{lga{{
lgbq{r| bcgnlcg{ ngb ilj{ njar hloarnhh| q{ab cr {tag cg aptagblqra#{tagblgi znrlcq{
lgza{eag{ ilj{ ngb bcgnlcg{' Trcjl np cj ;4! cg elgleqe onhngka rakcrbab lg `ajlgngklnh |anr cj ank` [qo [nzlgi{ nkkcqg ([[N, cr Enlg [nzlgi{nkkcqg (lrra{taklza cj `a
`chbar cj `n nkkcqg, ctarnab o| ng| ongm#{arzlka kagra ylhh oa babqkab cg `a hn{ bn| cj
`a jlgngklnh |anr cj `n tnrlkqhnr [[N cr E[Nngb ylhh oa rng{jarrab c [na ngb Kagra{
kceolgab nkkcqg ([NKKN,' R`a Trcjl np lg `a gap jlgngklnh |anr cj `n tnrlkqhnr E[N#[[N
ylhh oa hazlab cg `a elgleqe onhngka rakcrbab cj `n |anr elgq{`a trazlcq{ |anr{ npab
necqg cj `n tnrlkqhnr E[N#[[N ligcrlgi `a enpleqe necqg `cyazar `qia en| oa'
Than{a qgbar{ngb `n elgleqe onhngka rakcrbab lg `a jlgngklnh |anr cj ank` [qo [nzlgi{
nkkcqg ([[N, cr Enlg [nzlgi{ nkkcqg eang{ `a ecga| qgq{ab cr {nignab jcr ecra `ng
cga |anr' Lg `a gap jlgngklnh |anr cj `a E[N cr [[N `a Trcjl Rnp ylhh oa hazlab cg `a
nbbllcgnh qgq{ab cr {nignab ecga| czar `a trazlcq{ npab necqg' R`n eang{ `ara ylhhoa gc rakqrrlgi trcjl np cg qgq{ab cr {crab ecga|' Cgka npab `a qgq{ab ecga| kng oa
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
8/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia 0
{tag ngb rak`nriab#ra{crab yl`cq oalgi ra npab jcr `a aglra hlja cj `n nkkcqg' Lg `a
kn{a cj kntlnh inlg{ jrce n {nha cj ng| trctar| cr n{{a n tar{cg ylhh `nza n elgleqe cj ;:2
bn|{ ngb enpleqe cj > |anr ngb ;:2 bn|{ tarlcb c nzclb Trcjl Rnp jrce {nha trckaab{
(kntlnh inlg{, c ralgza{' [lelhnrh| 2! Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a np (RCT Rnp, lg hlaq cj tra{ag nhh
lgblrak npa{ ngb znrlcq{ {qrk`nria{ ylhh oa babqkab jrce azar| ecga| rng{jar lg ank` [qo
[nzlgi{ Nkkcqg cr Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg lrra{taklza cj `a jnk `n y`cazar `chb{ `n
nkkcqg ngb cg y`n tqrtc{a `a necqg `n{ oaag rng{jarrab (tqrk`n{a ilj bcgnlcg
{nhnr|#raeqgarnlcg cr ng| c`ar tqrtc{a, ctarnab o| ng| ongm cr {arzlka kagra ngb
rng{jarrab c [na ngb Kagra{ kceolgab nkkcqg [NKKN,' R`q{ nhh lgblzlbqnh{ y`c anrg
`rcqi` {nhnrla{ raeqgarnlcg{ ilj{ ngb bcgnlcg{ ylhh gaab gc tn| lgkcea np ngb
{qoel lgkcea np raqrg{ nggqnhh|' R`q{ tactha ylhh oa rahlazab jrce `a kcoyao cj tra{ag
neoliqcq{ ngb kcethap np {rqkqra{ tha`crn cj np hny{ engbncr| ngb kqeoar{cea
nkkcqglgi nqbllgi ngb np raqrg{ ngb kcg{a~qag ~qnielra cj nhh np rahnab kn{a{'
@cy c nzclb Trcjl np6 %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
Azar| tar{cg ylhh `nza `a jchhcylgi ctlcg{ c nzclb Trcjl Rnp cj ;4! oalgi babqkab jrce
`l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ngb [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{'
@a#{`a kng oq| hngb{ qt c ?4 nkra{ cj hngb qghlelab gqeoar cj jhn{ kceearklnh
a{nohl{`eag{ ngb c`ar trctarla{ n{ `a#{`a yl{`a{' R`l{ agnoha{ ranh a{na {akcr ircy{ n
jn{ar rna ngb `cq{a rag{ ylhh kcea bcyg {qo{nglnhh| oagajllgi jnelhla{ y`c `nza gc cyg
`cq{a{'
@a#{`a kng oq| qghlelab gqeoar cj {`nra{ n{ `a#{`a yl{`a{ 'Azag `cqi` `a#{`a hcc{a{ n 2!
cj {`nra znhqa n{ RCT Rnp y`lha rng{jarrlgi kn{` jrce `l{#`ar nkkcqg {lhh `a#{`a ia{
oagajlab jrce ;4! Trcjl Rnp oalgi babqkab' [c tactha ylhh hccm cq jcr `a kcetngla{ y`lk`bakhnra blzlbagb{ azar| |anr' R`a| nh{c {qb| knrajqhh| `a jqgbneagnh{ cj `a kcetng| hlma
`a occm znhqa AT[ T#A rnlc trcjl{ blzlbagb{ ra{arza{ hlnolhlla{ ak' oajcra oq|lgi {`nra{'
Lg `l{ {kagnrlc `a {ckm enrma{ ylhh ircy n {anb| rna ngb `ara ylhh oa gc enrma krn{`a{
gcy ngb `ag n{ ya nra aptarlagklgi qgbar tra{ag {|{ae'
@a#{`a kng hagb ecga| c c`ar{ y`c nra lg gaab' Azag `cqi` a#{`a hcc{a{ 2! cj ecga| n{
RCT Rnp y`lha rng{jarrlgi kn{` `a#{`a ia{ oagajlab o| ialgi 2! lgara{ cg `a hcng
necqg azar |anr' Lg `a trcka{{ `a hcngar{ (hcng nmar{, ylhh ia hcng{ n k`antar rna y`ag
kcetnrab c tra{ag {|{ae'
@a#{`a kng {aqt lgbq{rla{ {nr oq{lga{{a{ c nzclb Trcjl np' [c lg `l{ trcka{{ `qia
aethc|eag cttcrqglla{ ylhh oa iagarnab' [c lg `a ag{qlgi kcetallcg( kceecblla{
trlka{ ylhh oakcea eqk` k`antar'
@a#{`a kng rng{jar kn{` jrce `l{#`ar E[N#[[N{ c ngc`ar cga cj `l{#`ar [qo [nzlgi{
Nkkcqg{ cr c `l{ ylja{#`ar `q{ongb{ [[N{ c nzclb Trcjl np' @a#{`a kng bcgna `qia
necqg{ c cringl{nlcg{#k`nrlnoha rq{{ lj `a#{`a yl{`a{' Lg `l{ trcka{{ `a#{`a ylhh hc{a 2!
cj `n rng{jarrab kn{` lg `a jcre cjRct Rnp'
@a#{`a kng lgza{ lg znrlcq{ Hlja Lg{qrngka {k`aea{' N `a agb cj `a enqrl| tarlcb `a| ylhh
ia cgh| `a nkqnh cnh traelqe necqg tnlb yl`cq ng| lgara{' Oq lg kn{a cj traenqra
ban` cr `c{tlnhl{nlcg bqa c lhhga{{ jqhh lg{qrab necqg ylhh oa tnlb n{ lg `a tra{ag {|{ae'
Zlzlb apthngnlcg6 % R`a RCT Rnp {|{ae{ np kchhaklcg{ RCT Rnp ngb Trcjl np, jcr
Iczargeag ngb np tn|eag{#np kcethlngka o| nhh kllvag{ ylhh oa cnhh| nqcenlk ngb
lgzchqgnr| fq{ hlma ra{tlrncr| {|{ae lg `qeng ocb|' Azar| nkkcqg (E[N#[[N#KNG, l{ ng
lgzchqgnr| nptn|lgi nkkcqg' Kllvag{ gaab gc enlgnlg {atnrna nkkcqg occm{ ngb
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
9/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia 1' L bca{g enar eqk` y`n `a jlgngklnh |anr cj ank` nkkcqg l{' R`a
gqeoar cj nkkcqg{ `n oailg cr agb ank` bn| l{ nttrcplenah| a~qnh c `a cnh gqeoar cj
nkkcqg{ ctarnab o| nhh ongm{ lg `n kcqgr| blzlbab o| ;:1' R`a kceecg jlgngklnh |anr jcr
`a y`cha gnlcg ylhh oakcea lrrahazng qgletcrng ngb rabqgbng lg `a RCT Rnp {|{ae'
Ank` lgblzlbqnh kng `nza n k`c{ag jlgngklnh |anr jcr `l{ azar| [[N nkkcqg'Lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae ec{ cj `a ecga| lg klrkqhnlcg l{ lg t`|{lknh jcre
(olhh{#gca{,' R`ara nra ratcrab c oa thag| cj kn{a{ cj hcclgi{ rcooarla{ `celklba{
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
10/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >4
apcrlcg{ rng{ce{ ngb orloa{ nkrc{{ `a ycrhb lg nhec{ nhh gnlcg{ oaknq{a cj `l{ `qia
ecga| lg t`|{lknh jcre' R`l{ t`|{lknh ecga| lg `qia necqg{ l{ oalgi rng{jarrab jrce cga
`ngb c c`ar ahqblgi nhh np ga{ lg rng{nklcg{ cj kceecblla{ cr iccb{' R`a qgnkkcqgab
IBT l{ {nlb c oa cc `anz| ngb znrla{ jrce kcqgr| c kcqgr| batagblgi qtcg `a kcrrqtlcg
hazah `n apl{{ lg `n kcqgr|' Lg nbbllcg c `l{ ohnkm ecga| `ara nra nh{c `qia necqg{ cj
jnma kqrragk| `n `n{ kcgnelgnab `a iagqlga kqrragk|' R`a kceolgab ajjak cj `a ohnkm
ecga| ngb jnma kqrragk| l{ thn|lgi `nzck yl` akcgcela{ cj eng| kcqgrla{' Gcy ecga| l{
oalgi ranab n{ ng lgkcea iagarnlgi n{{a ngb yanh` lg{anb cj q{lgi l n{ n eablqe lg
apk`ngia cj kceecblla{ iccb{ {arzlka{ ngb {`nra{ t`|{lknh ngb lgahhakqnh ycrm{' R`a
`qia nkkqeqhnlcg cj ecga| lg jay tckma{ lg `a jcre cj ohnkm ecga| l{ enmlgi `a k|khlk
klrkqhnlcg cj ecga| lg `a akcgcelk {|{ae c oa arrnlk ({cea lea{ ecra k|kha{ tar |anr
ngb {cea lea{ ha{{ k|kha{ tar |anr yl` {nignlcg#gcg q{nia cj ecga| knq{lgi akcgcelk
raka{{lcg n lea{' R`a eqhlthlar ajjak cg `a ecga| lg ongmlgi jlgngka {|{ae l{ bakran{lgi
`a ranh jnka znhqa cj `a t`|{lknh kqrragk|' Nh`cqi` `a lgblzlbqnh{ anrglgi{ nra lgkran{lgiazar| |anr `a tqrk`n{a znhqa cj `a kqrragk| l{ bakran{lgi ngb rank`ab nhec{ >#>4
`cj l{
jnka znhqa' RCT Rnp {|{ae rla{ c jlp `l{ trcohae o| ~qnhlnlza ngb ~qnglnlza {qtth| cj
ecga| lg akcgcelk {|{ae {c `n `a tqrk`n{a znhqa cj t`|{lknh kqrragk| n l{ jnka znhqa
raenlg{ `li` ngb {nea jcr hcgiar tarlcb cj lea' R`a trlka{ cj kceecblla{ cr {arzlka{ ylhh
raenlg {nea cr azag bakran{a ag`ngklgi `a tqrk`n{lgi kntnkl| cj tactha azar| |anr yl`
lgkran{a lg anrglgi{ (tar kntln lgkcea, ank` |anr'
(Than{a {aa tnia ecga| ecga| {qtth| hcng{ ranh ecga| ngb krabl ecga| jrce tnia >0 c
tnia ?4,
Lg `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae ec{ cj `a ecga| (
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
11/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >>
(t`|{lknh#lgahhakqnh, rng{tcr tcyar (jqah#ahakrlkl|, ngb {`ahj hlja' R`a jlgnh ra{qh cj RCT
Rnp {|{ae ylhh oa `a nk`lazaeag cj tarjak a~qlhlorlqe oayaag baengb ngb {qtth|=
bazahcteag ngb a~qnhl|= ircy` ngb lgjhnlcg= ranh ecga| ngb krabl ecga| (hcngab ecga|,=
razagqa{ ngb aptagblqra' R`a hct{lbab bazahcteag necgi tactha ngb railcg{ `n l{ oalgi
ylga{{ab lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae ylhh kan{a c apl{' R`a gnqrnh ra{cqrka ngb yanh`
cj n kcqgr| kng oa a~qnhh| bl{rloqab necgi `a tactha'
Qgbar tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae `ara nra cgh| n jay thn|ar{ ecra rajaraa{ (hlkag{a
tarel k`akm tc{{ yn| olhh{ nqbllgi n{{a{{eag ngb lg{taklcg, ngb ecra {takncr{'
R`a trctc{ab Rct np {|{ae ylhh hanza {tnka jcr ecra thn|ar{ n jay rajaraa{ (tchhqlcg
kcgrch ocnrb cgh|, ngb n jay {takncr{' R`a enrma{ ylhh oakcea {c ylba ctag yl` gc
tarel{ cr hlkagka{ ra~qlrab apkat tchhqlcg kcgrch ocnrb{ tarel{{lcg, c rqg ng| oq{lga{{
cr lgbq{r| apkat `c{a y`ara no{chqa gaka{{l| l{ ra~qlrab jcr tarel{{lcg{ jrce
Iczargeag{ jcr elglgi cra{ elgarnh{ {aab{ ta{lklba{ apthc{lza{ ak' R`q{ azar|cga kng
agar lgc `a enrma ngb {nr `l{#`ar cyg oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| yl`cq ng| {`nkmha{`arao| rabqklgi qgaethc|eag {qo{nglnhh|' N `a {nea lea yl` {c eng| thn|ar{ lg `a
enrma ngb `li` kcetallcg `a trlka{ cj iccb{#{arzlka{ ylhh oakcea k`antar oagajllgi
kcg{qear{' R`l{ lgznrlnoh| lgkran{a{ kcg{qetlcg hanblgi c ecra trcbqklcg ngb ircy`
rna'
R`a on{lk kcgkat cj `a RCT Rnp {|{ae l{ `n cgh| {lgiha np lg `a thnka cj tra{ag
eqhltha npa{ ylhh oa tnlb o| `a tactha cg kceecblla{#{arzlka{ engqjnkqrab yl`lg `a
kcqgr| ntnr jrce `a kq{ce{ bq| y`lk` l{ letc{ab cgh| c {nza bcea{lk lgbq{r| cr
oq{lga{{' R`a kq{ce{ bq| kng oa raeczab cg karnlg iccb{ hlma kaeag ngb {aah n{ ngb
y`ag gaka{{nr| c k`akm `a fnkmab qt trlka{ knq{ab o| knrah necgi `a{a kcetngla{ ngb
nh{c cg nirlkqhqra trcbqka y`ag {qjjlklag jccb irnlg trcbqklcg l{ gc nznlhnoha jcrkcg{qetlcg cr trckqraeag cynrb{ a{{aglnh oqjjar {ckm oaknq{a cj brcqi` cr c`ar
gnqrnh knhnella{' [c `a nggqnh oqbia tra{agnlcg lj gaka{{nr| ylhh oa enlgh| qlhl{ab c
bl{rloqa ngb nhhckna razagqa{ c znrlcq{ {akcr{ batnreag{ ngb yahjnra {k`aea{
lg{anb cj jckq{{lgi cg npnlcg np kchhaklcg ngb agjcrkaeag cg np kcethlngka'
Lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae `a oqbia tratnrnlcg l{ en{{lza
eqhl {niab lea kcg{qelgi ngb hnocrlcq{ trcka{{' R`ara nra `cq{ngb{ cj bljjarag `li` cr
zar| hcy znhqab iccb{ cr {arzlka{ c oa {airainab lgc bljjarag ircqt{ ngb npab o| oc`
Kagra ngb [na{ yl` bljjarag npa{ n `raa cr ecra {hno rna{ ngb n{ lj `a{a nra gc
agcqi` `ara nra nbbllcgnh {qrk`nria{ cr ka{{a{ cg {ahakab iccb{' R`a{a np {rqkqra{ ngb
{hno rna{ cg bljjarag iccb{ maat k`ngilgi azar| |anr' Yl` `a{a kcethlknab np {rqkqra{ngb azar k`ngilgi {hno rna{ azar| |anr `a np kcethlngka o| lgblzlbqnh engqjnkqrar{
banhar{ ngb ranlhar{ `n{ oaag bljjlkqh kqeoar{cea ngb oc`ar{cea' Rnpa{ nra oalgi
kchhakab o| bljjarag np kchhaklcg batnreag{ on{ab cg `a nkkcqg{ enlgnlgab o|
lgblzlbqnh{ y`c rqg lgbq{r| cr oq{lga{{' R`ara l{ thag| cj rcce jcr qgbar{naeag cj
trcbqklcg ngb {nha{ np azn{lcg ngb kcg{a~qag o|%trcbqk cj ohnkm ecga|' Oq lg `a
{qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `ara ylhh oa {lgiha np knhhab RCT (Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a, np yl`
jlpab#{nlcgnr| {hno rna (2!, cg nhh ecga| rng{jar{ jrce cga nkkcqg c ngc`ar nkkcqg
`rcqi` k`a~qa baol knrb ngb cghlga rng{jar#ga ongmlgi lg `a tqrk`n{a k`nlg cj
kcg{qear{ ranlhar{ ngb engqjnkqrar{' R`a Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a RCT Rnp (2!, ylhh oa
babqkab nqcenlknhh| o| kcetqar {|{ae{ cj ongm{ cg nhh ecga| rng{jar{ jrce cgankkcqg c ngc`ar nkkcqg lrra{taklza cj `a jnk `n jcr y`n tqrtc{a
(tqrk`n{a#bcgnlcg#{nhnrla{#hcng{, ngb o| y`ce `a{a ecga| rng{jar{ `nza oaag enba'
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
12/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >?
R`a np ylhh oa cgh| cg ecga| rng{jar{ jcre cga nkkcqg c ngc`ar rn`ar `ng cg
`a znhqa cj iccb#kceecblla{ ngb {arzlka{ yl` azar k`ngilgi {hno rna{ azar| |anr n oqbia
lea lg `a tra{ag npnlcg {|{ae' [c `a razagqa kchhaklcg{ jcr oc` Kagra ngb [nab
Iczargeag{ ylhh oa lg{ng nqcenlk trcet ngb kcglgqcq{ trcka{{ `rcqi`cq `a |anr
yl` gc rcce jcr np azn{lcg' R`ara ylhh oa no{chqah| gc np kchhaklcg aptagblqra jcr `a
Iczargeag ngb np kcethlngka kc{ jcr kllvag{' R`a tqrtc{a cj oqbia tratnrnlcg ylhh oa
cgh| `a nhhcknlcg cj razagqa{ ic jrce RCT Rnp ngb Trcjl Rnp c znrlcq{ {akcr{
batnreag{ cr elgl{rla{' Rnpnlcg np kchhaklcg np agjcrkaeag np kcethlngka
nhhcknlcg cj razagqa{ c znrlcq{ elgl{rla{ cr batnreag{ ngb ecga| {qtth| lgc `a
akcgce| nra qgljlab lg `l{ qgl~qa RCT Rnp {|{ae' [c `a oqbia tra{agnlcg ylhh oakcea
{letha {ecc` ngb lea {nzlgi' Cr azag `ara ylhh oa gc gaab jcr oqbia tra{agnlcg ank`
|anr' R`a |anrh| oqbia tra{agnlcg kng oa {chah| qlhl{ab jcr tarkagnia yl{a nhhcknlcg ngb
k`nggahhlgi cj `c{a nqcenlknhh| kchhakab RCT Rnp ngb Trcjl Rnp razagqa{ o| ongm{ c
znrlcq{ {akcr{ hlma `cq{lgi `anh` knra abqknlcg brlgmlgi ynar rng{tcr lrrlinlcgnirlkqhqra agzlrcgeag {nglnlcg lgjrn{rqkqra trcfak{ rqrnh bazahcteag bajagka ngb
lgargnh tchlklgi' R`a tarkagnia cj jqgb{ nhhcknab c znrlcq{ elgl{rla{ batnreag{ cr
{akcr{ kng oa k`ngiab azar| |anr batagblgi qtcg `a gaab gaka{{l| ngb qriagk| nk~qlrab
o| `ae' R`a Iczargeag {rqkqra ngb enk`lgar| kng oa ra{rqkqrab bcyg{lvab ngb jlga
qgab gc cgh| c rabqka yn{ajqh aptagblqra oq nh{c c knar c `a on{lk gaab{ cj tactha
kcgkarglgi `cq{lgi `anh` knra abqknlcg {nglnlcg ngb brlgmlgi ynar' Rc {n| orlajh| `a
Iczargeag{ aglra kcgkagrnlcg ngb ct ec{ trlcrl| ylhh {`lj jrce npnlcg( np kchhaklcg
ngb agjcrkaeag c lethaeagnlcg cj yahjnra {k`aea{ ngb bazahcteag cj lgjrn{rqkqra
trcfak{'
Lg `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `a ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ ylhh oakcea zlrqnhh| `algareablnrla{ oayaag tactha ngb `a Iczargeag jcr nhh np kchhaklcg{ ngb rabl{rloqlcg cj
jqgb{#razagqa{ jrce `a Iczargeag c tactha y`c {`cqhb oa `a gnqrnh ahliloha ngb
haillena rakltlag{ y`lha ahlelgnlgi y`nha{ tnrn{la{ ngb hleta{' Y`agazar n tar{cg
elirna{ cr ecza{ c n gay thnka `l{ chb nbbra{{ lg Enlg [nzlgi Nkkcqg (E[N, {`cqhb oa
k`ngiab yl` `a gay nbbra{{ c ia ecg`h| rnlcg( {qo{lbla{( kcetag{nlcg#apirnln#rahlaj
jqgb{ lg `a azag cj gnqrnh knhnella{ hlma anr`~qnma k|khcga{ jhccb{ jnelga brcqi` ak'
lg `n tnrlkqhnr thnka ngb nh{c c ia zclgi rli` lg `n tnrlkqhnr kcg{lqagk|' Lg `a
{qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `a Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, cj ank` tar{cg {`nhh oa qlhl{ab n{
`a ba%en nkkcqg cj `n tar{cg jcr `chblgi oc` ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ hlma
{`nra{ hngb{ thc{ jhn{ ichb {lhzar fayahhar| crgneag{ zar| `li` znhqab nrlkha{ eccrk|kha{ knr{ c`ar za`lkha{ ngb nhh c`ar trctarla{#n{{a{' Y`lha tqrk`n{lgi cr {ahhlgi `a
rng{jar cj cygar{`lt rli`{ cj `a{a n{{a{#trctarla{ jrce cga tar{cg c ngc`ar tar{cg {`nhh
oa enba jrce cga tar{cg{ E[N c ngc`ar tar{cg{ E[N `rcqi` ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ lg n
blilnh#ahakrcglk jcre'
Q{nia cj E[N{ [[N{ ngb KNG{6%Lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae n tar{cg{ cr n kcetng|{ ecga|( ecznoha cr leecznoha
trctarla{(hlma za`lkha{ thc{ jhn{ `cq{a{ jnkcrla{ kceearklnh a{nohl{`eag{ hngb{ ak',
{`nra{ jnelh| raa lg{qrngka tchlkla{ ngb nhh c`ar n{{a{ nra rakcrbab engniab ngb `ngbhab
o| bljjarag batnreag{ niagkla{ cr lg{lqlcg{' Oq lg `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae ecga|
ecznoha cr leecznoha trctarla{ (hlma za`lkha{ thc{ jhn{ `cq{a{ kceearklnha{nohl{`eag{ hngb{ ak', {`nra{ jnelh| raa lg{qrngka tchlkla{ ngb nhh c`ar n{{a{ nra
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
13/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >;
rakcrbab engniab ngb `ngbhab lg n {lgiha nkkcqg knhhab Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, yl`
jlza jchbar{ lg kn{a cj lgblzlbqnh{ ngb lg Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar{ (KNG, yl` {azag jchbar{
lg kn{a cj kcetngla{ y`lk` l{{qab {`nra{ jcr tqohlk' R`a{a nkkcqg{ E[N{( [[N{ ngb KNG{
ylhh oa enlgnlgab ngb ctarnab o| ongm{ rathnklgi bljjarag batnreag{ np kchhaklcg ngb
np agjcrkaeag ocnrb{ niagkla{ cr lg{lqlcg{ cj `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae'
R`q{ tactha{ ecga|( {`nra{( nhh ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ ylhh oa lg cgh| cga
nkkcqg (E[N, yl` bljjarag jchbar{ ctarnab o| ongm{' [c ecga| {`nra{ ngb nhh c`ar
ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ kng oa {crab enlgnlgab ngb q{ab jrce `l{ {lgiha
nkkcqg knhhab Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, yl` jlza jchbar{ lg kn{a cj lgblzlbqnh{ ngb
Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar{ (KNG, yl` {azag jchbar{ lg kn{a cj kcetngla{ y`lk` l{{qab
{`nra{ jcr tqohlk' Rrng{jar cj ecga| {`nra{ ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ iccb{
{arzlka{ t`|{lknh ngb lgahhakqnh ycrm{ nra {leqhngacq{h| rng{jarrab jrce cga nkkcqg c
ngc`ar nkkcqg y`lha tqrk`n{lgi cr oq|lgi'
>' Q{nia cj Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, % R`ara ylhh oa cgh| cga kcetqh{cr| ngbengbncr| E[N jcr ank` tar{cg ilzag o| `a Iczargeag' R`l{ E[N ylhh `nza jlza jchbar{ jcr
ank` {takljlk tqrtc{a cj ng lgblzlbqnh'
R`a jlr{ jchbar (hl~qlb ecga| jchbar, ylhh oa q{ab jcr {crnia ngb q{nia cj ecga| (lg RCT Rnp
{|{ae l l{ knhhab n{ hl~qlb ecga|, iagarnab `rcqi` {nzlgi{#anrglgi{#lgkcea{#bcgnlcg{'
R`l{ jchbar cj E[N kng nh{c oa q{ab c rqg cr ctarna ng| oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| cygab y`chh| o|
ng lgblzlbqnh'
R`a {akcgb jchbar (leecznoha trctar| jchbar, {`nhh oa q{ab jcr rail{rnlcg {crnia ngb
q{nia cj cygar{`lt rli`{ cj nhh leecznoha trctarla{ hlma hngb{ jhn{ thc{ kceearklnh
a{nohl{`eag{ ngb akaarn' R`a cygar{`lt rli`{ cj `a{a n{{a{ ylhh oa rng{jarrab jrce cga
tar{cg{ E[N c ngc`ar tar{cg{ E[N y`lha tqrk`n{lgi#{ahhlgi#bcgnlgi cj `a{a leecznohatrctarla{'
R`a `lrb jchbar (ecznoha trctar| jchbar, {`nhh oa qlhl{ab jcr cygar{`lt rli`{ cj nhh ecznoha
trctarla{ hlma za`lkha{ ichb fayahhar| ngb akaarn' R`a cygar{`lt rli`{ cj `a{a trctarla{
ylhh oa rng{jarrab jrce cga tar{cg{ E[N c ngc`ar tar{cg{ E[N y`lha
tqrk`n{a#{nha#bcgnlcg cj `a{a ecznoha trctarla{' Lg `a RCT Rnp {|{ae `a ecznoha ngb
leecznoha trctarla{ nra knhhab n{ {chlb ecga|' R`a{a trctarla{ ({chlb ecga|, ylhh `nza oc`
cygar{`lt rli`{ ngb lg t`|{lknh agfc|eag'
Zlzlb apthngnlcg6 % Lg `l{ {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `a leecznoha trctar| jchbar
ngb `a ecznoha trctar| jchbar{ cj Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, cj ank` tar{cg {`nhh oa
qlhl{ab n{ `a ba%en nkkcqg cj `n tar{cg jcr cygar{`lt rli`{ cj oc` ecznoha ngbleecznoha trctarla{ hlma {`nra{ hngb{ thc{ jhn{ ichb {lhzar fayahhar| crgneag{ zar|
`li` znhqab nrlkha{ eccr k|kha{ knr{ c`ar za`lkha{ ngb nhh c`ar trctarla{#n{{a{' Y`lha
tqrk`n{lgi cr {ahhlgi `a rng{jar cj cygar{`lt cj `a{a n{{a{#trctarla{ jrce cga tar{cg c
ngc`ar tar{cg {`nhh oa enba jrce cga tar{cg{ E[N c ngc`ar tar{cg{ E[N `rcqi`
ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ lg ng ahakrcglk#blilnh jcre' [c `a rng{jar cj n{{a{ hlma hngb{ thc{
jhn{ ichb fayahhar| crgneag{ ngb za`lkha{ ylhh nma thnka lg t`|{lknh jcre qtcg `a rng{jar
cj cygar{`lt rli` cj `n n{{a lg blilnh jcre jrce cga E[N ({ahhar, c ngc`ar E[N (oq|ar,'
Hnrkag| oqrihnrla{ hcclgi{ ngb apcrlcg{ ylhh kcea c ng agb oaknq{a yl`cq `a
cygar{`lt rli`{ cj ichb {lhzar fayahhar| ngb c`ar `li` znhqab lae{ lg `a E[N{ `a| knggc
oa {chb cr ocqi`' Lg hlarnh {ag{a ongm{ ylhh zlrqnhh| nk n{ kq{cblng{ jcr tactha{ ecga|({`nra{ n{{a{ ngb nhh ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{' R`a ongm orngk`a{# ongmlgi {arzlka
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
14/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >2
kagra{ ylhh oa lgareablnrla{ oayaag tactha ngb Batc{lnr| y`c {`cqhb oa qgbar jqhh
kcgrch iczargab ecglcrab ngb k`akmab o| Kagrnh Ongm cj `n tnrlkqhnr kcqgr|' Lg c`ar
ycrb{ ongm orngk`a{#ongmlgi {arzlka kagra{ kng oa knhhab n{ {lgiha ylgbcy {`ct{ y`ara nhh
on{lk {arzlka{ cj `a tactha ylhh oa ea' RCT Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ `n cnh hngb rakcrb cj `a
kcqgr| {`cqhb oa baenarlnhl{ab nkkcrblgi c apag hcknlcg enttlgi ngb cygar{`lt' R`a
hngb oahcgi{ c tactha ylhh oa rakcrbab lg `alr ra{taklza E[N{' [lelhnrh| `a hngb `n
oahcgi{ c Iczargeag Iczargeag cringl{nlcg{ kcetngla{ {`cqhb oa rakcrbab lg `alr
ra{taklza nkkcqg{' Lg `a RCT Rnp {|{ae `a ongm orngk`a{#ongmlgi {arzlka kagra{ ylhh nk
n{ elbbha eag jcr tactha engqjnkqrar{ banhar{ {ahhar{ ngb oq|ar{ jcr rng{jar cr rnba cj
ecga| {`nra{ kceecblla{ hngb{ jhn{ thc{ za`lkha{ ngb c`ar ecznoha cr leecznoha
trctar| y`lha oq|lgi cr {ahhlgi n no{chqah| jraa cj kc{'
Qgbar `a RCT np {|{ae hngb{ thc{ jhn{ cr c`ar trctarla{ tqrk`n{ab {`cqhb oa
enba `rcqi` enlg {nzlgi{ nkkcqg cgh|' Lj ng| tar{cg oq|{ hngb thc jhn cr ng| c`ar
trctar| ng|y`ara lg Lgbln `a apag ngb gnqra cj `a trctar| ylhh oa krablab lg `l{ Enlg[nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ngb `a {nea trctar| ylhh oa baolab jrce `a {ahhar{ Enlg [nzlgi{
Nkkcqg (E[N,' Y`agazar `a#{`a {ahh{ ng| trctar| `n l{ krablab lg `l{ E[N `a {nea ylhh
oa baolab jrce `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ngb `a {nea trctar| ylhh oa krablab lg `a
oq|ar{ Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg E[N,' Fq{ hlma {`nra{ `ara ylhh oa gc tntar bckqeag{ jcr
trctarla{' Qghlma kn{` rng{jar{ `a oq|ar{ tra{agka ngb {lignqra#nq`aglknlcg {`nhh nh{c
oa gaabab jcr ng| ecznoha cr leecznoha trctar| rng{nklcg'
R`ara ylhh oa gc eqhltha {ahhlgi cj `a {nea trctar| c bljjarag tactha ngb
qgnq`crl{ab {ahhlgi#tqrk`n{a ngb lhhainh ckkqtnlcg cj c`ar tar{cg{ trctar| yl`cq
`l{#`ar mgcylgi#kcg{ag ylhh gc oa tc{{loha'
R`a jcqr` jchbar ({`nra{#{ckm{ jchbar, {`nhh oa qlhl{ab jcr {crnia ngb q{nia cj cygar{`ltrli`{ cj {`nra{#{ckm{ ocgb{ barlznlza{ ak' R`a cygar{`lt rli`{ cj `a{a {akqrlla{ ylhh oa
rng{jarrab jrce cga tar{cg{ E[N c ngc`ar tar{cg{ E[N y`lha oq|lgi#{ahh lgi#bcgnlcg'
R`a {`nra{ ylhh `nza cgh| cygar{`lt rli`{ ngb knhhab n{ {ael {chlb ecga|'
R`a jlj` jchbar (jnelh| jchbar, {`nhh oa qlhl{ab jcr jnelh| banlh{ ngb knhhab n{ jnelh| jchbar'
Enrrlnia rail{rnlcg ngb k`lhb olr` rail{rnlcg{ ylhh oa enba oc` lg `q{ongb ngb ylja{
jnelh| jchbar{ cj E[N{' On{ab cg `a banlh{ lg `a jnelh| jchbar{ ecg`h| rnlcg{ ylhh oa
kcetqab ngb rng{jarrab azar| ecg` lg `a jcre cj kn{` blrakh| lgc `a ylja{ E[N{'
Azar| k`lhb ylhh ia `l{#`ar cyg E[N nkkcqg n `a nia cj >1 |anr{' R`a ongm {naeag cjR`a
jlj` jchbar (jnelh| jchbar, cj E[N cj ng| lgblzlbqnh kng oa qlhl{ab n{ kn{a ngb lgkcea
karljlkna zcar hl{ rnlcg knrb ngb tn{{tcr' L kng oa conlgab yl`lg elgqa{ jrce ng|ongm ngb jrce ng|y`ara lg `a kcqgr|' Tactha gaab gc tn| orloa{ c ia `a{a karljlkna{
cr bckqeag{ jrce razagqa batnreag ngb tn{{tcr cjjlka{' Nhh jqgb{ nhhcknab cynrb{
yahjnra cj [K{ [R{ ngb OK{ kng oa rng{jarrab blrakh| lgc `a E[N{ cj `a{a {aklcg{
hanzlgi gc rcce jcr hanmnia{ orloa{ ngb el{nttrctrlnlcg cj `a{a jqgb{'
Zlzlb apthngnlcg6% Nhh `a banlh{ cj n tar{cg{ ckkqtnlcg( abqknlcgnh ~qnhljlknlcg{(
enrrlnia brlzlgi hlkag{a tn{{tcr `l{#`ar hlja tnrgar{ gnea TNG gqeoar (E[N, (ngb zlka
zar{n, k`lhbrag ngb `alr nia ak ylhh oa rakcrbab lg `a jlj` jchbar(jnelh| jchbar, cj `l{#`ar
Enlg [nzlgi{ nkkcqg' R`a tnrag{ {`cqhb rail{ar `alr k`lhb{ banlh{ lg `a bnn rakcrb cj
`alr Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, yl`lg `raa ecg`{ cj `alr k`lhb{ olr`' Cgka `a k`lhb
ia{ `a nia cj >1 |anr{ `a#{`a ylhh nqcenlknhh| ia TNG ngb E[N' R`a cnh knra ngb yahjnracj `a crt`ng{ {`cqhb oa nmag o| `a [na iczargeag{ lhh `a k`lhb rank`a{ `a nia cj ?4
|anr{'
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
15/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >1
R`l{ {|{ae cnhh| ngb tarengagh| k`akm{ `a azar lgkran{lgi trcohae cj lhhainh elirnlcg
jrce Tnml{ng ngb Ongihnba{` k`ngilgi `a baecirnt`lk trctcrlcg cj Lgbln c ng
qglenilgnoha hazah' Cgka nhh `a kllvag{ nocza `a nia cj >1 |anr{ nra ilzag `a engbncr|
Enlg [nzlgi{ nkkcqg (E[N, ngb `a RCT Rnp {|{ae oakcea{ jqhh| ctarnlcgnh gc nbqh ylhh
oa ilzag Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, `aranjar' Jrce `aranjar azar| nbbllcgnh Enlg
[nzlgi{ Nkkcqg E[N ylhh oa ng cjj{`cc cj ng apl{lgi E[N oahcgilgi c tnrag{' R`ara ylhh oa
gc ~qa{lcg cj nbbllcgnh jra{` E[N yl`cq tnrag{ apl{lgi E[N' [lelhnrh| apl{lgi E[N{ ylhh
kcea c kan{a qtcg `a ban` cj lgblzlbqnh{' Nhh `a ecga| {`nra{ ecznoha ngb leecznoha
trctarla{ rakcrbab lg `a jlza jchbar{ cj E[N cj `a bakan{ab tar{cg ylhh oa rng{jarrab c
`l{#`ar hainh `alr{' R`a cnh gqeoar cj E[N{ ylhh lgkran{a azar| |anr batagblgi qtcg `a
ircy` rna cj tctqhnlcg cj `n kcqgr|' RCT Rnp {|{ae ylhh rakcrb= enlgnlg azar|
lgblzlbqnh{ jnelh| rakcrb iagarnlcg njar iagarnlcg' R`arajcra lhhainh elirng{ jrce c`ar
kcqgrla{ knggc agar lhhainhh| lgc Lgbln ia Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg cr [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{
ngb n{{lelhna lg Lgblng tctqhnlcg' L ylhh oa n hc an{lar jcr `a iczargeag c baakarrcrl{{ ngb elhlng{ y`c krc{{ czar jrce nkrc{{ `a ocrbar c lgbqhia lg qghnyjqh nklzlla{'
RCT np {|{ae ylhh oa ctarnab {chah| o| ongm{ c trczlba bljjarag {arzlka{ jcr `a
Iczargeag hlma npnlcg np kchhaklcg np agjcrkaeag= jcr l{{qlgi kn{a karljlkna{
lgkcea karljlkna{ zcar hl{{ ecg`h| rnlcg{ {qo{lbla{ tag{lcg{ knhnel| rahlaj jqgb{
tn{{tcr{ hlkagka{ jaa{ raleoqr{aeag{ {k`chnr{`lt{ ak' n no{chqah| jraa cj kc{' RCT
Rnp {|{ae ctarnab o| ongm{ ylhh nh{c `aht tactha lg ialgi nhh `a nocza eaglcgab
{arzlka{ n {lgiha ylgbcy `rcqi` `alr E[N{ yl` jlza bljjarag jchbar{' R`n eang{ RCT Rnp
{|{ae ylhh rathnka tra{ag {|{ae{ eqhltha batnreag{ hlma Lgkcea np batnreag
Kagrnh Apkl{a batnreag KOBR KOAK Rnp rloqgnh{ tn{{tcr batnreag kag{q{
batnreag( [na{ kceearklnh np batnreag{( klzlh {qtthla{ batnreag{( rail{rnlcgbatnreag{ razagqa batnreag{ ak' {nzlgi `cq{ngb{ cj krcra{ cj Iczargeag{ gcg%
thng aptagblqra'
?' Q{nia cj [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ([[N,6% Azar| tar{cg kng ctag ngb ctarna n{ eqk`gqeoar cj [[N{ n{ `a#{`a yl{`a{' R`a [[N ylhh `nza cgh| cga jchbar knhhab n{ hl~qlb ecga|
jchbar' R`l{ jchbar {`nhh oa q{ab jcr rakalzlgi {crnia ngb q{nia cj ecga| c ctarna ng|
oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| o| ng lgblzlbqnh' '
;' Q{nia cj Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar (KNG,6 % Kcrtcrna kcetngla{ EGK{ ngbTqohlk hlelab kcetngla{ y`lk` {chb#l{{qab {`nra{ c `a tqohlk ylhh oa ilzag KNG{' Ank`
Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar ylhh `nza {azag jchbar{ jcr ank` {takljlk ctarnlgi#rqgglgi
tqrtc{a cj `a kcetng|'
R`a jlr{ jchbar {`nhh oa qlhl{ab jcr {crnia ngb q{nia cj ecga| jcr rqgglgi `n kcetng|'
R`a {akcgb jchbar {`nhh oa qlhl{ab jcr `nzlgi nhh rakcrb{ cj leecznoha trctarla{ hlma hngb
oqlhblgi{ lgjrn{rqkqra ngb akaarn cj `n trcfak#thng#oq{lga{{' R`a `lrb jchbar {`nhh oa
q{ab jcr rail{rnlcg {crnia ngb q{nia cj cygar{`lt rli`{ jcr nhh jhaa cj za`lkha{ ngb c`ar
ecznoha trctarla{ hlma enk`lgar| akaarn ra~qlrab jcr rqgglgi cj `n kcetng|' R`a jcqr`
jchbar {`nhh oa q{ab jcr {crnia cj nhh {`nra{ cj `a trcecar{ ngb `a tqohlk cj `n kcetng|'
R`a jlj` jchbar {`nhh kcgnlg `a banlh{ ngb nkkcqg{ cj nhh `a aethc|ab engtcyar cj `n
kcetng|' R`a {lp` jchbar {`nhh kcgnlg `a banlhab nkkcqg{ cj nhh rny enarlnh{ ngb c`ar
ra~qlrab lgtq{ ocqi` ngb q{ab jcr rqgglgi cj `n kcetng|' R`a {azag` jchbar {`nhh kcgnlg
`a banlh{ ngb nkkcqg{ cj nhh trcbqk{ engqjnkqrab( {nha{ ngb lgzagcr|' RCT Rnp {|{ae{KNG yl` {azag jchbar{ l{ n gay trckabqra c {aa `n kcetng|{ jlgngklnh occm{ ya ra khang
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
16/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >:
nkkqrna ctag ngb rng{tnrag c nhh {`nra `chbar{ {c `n `ara kng oa gc rcce jcr jrnqbqhag
ngb bakatlza jlgngklnh {naeag{'
Zlzlb apthngnlcg6 % R`a RCT Rnp {|{ae{ Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar{ KNG{, yl` {azag
jchbar{ ylhh enma nhh kcetngla{ nkkcqg{ jqhh| rng{tnrag ngb ctag c nhh {`nra `chbar{ azar|
bn| (qghlma ~qnrarh| `nhj%|anr ngb |anrh| {naeag{ rahan{ab o| `a kcetngla{ lg `a tra{ag
{|{ae, jcr lg{taklcg {qb| ngb ngnh|{l{ oajcra lgza{lgi `alr `nrb anrgab ecga| lg {`nra{
cj `c{a kcetngla{ yl` {cqgb jlgngklnh tc{llcg' R`a rng{tnrag nkkcqglgi {|{ae lg KNG{
yl` {azag {atnrna jchbar{ jcr ecga| ecznoha trctar| leecznoha trctar| engtcyar
{`nra{ rny enarlnh{ ngb c`ar lgtq{ ngb engqjnkqrab trcbqk{ ngb lgzagcr| ylhh raecza
nhh jrnqb{ lg nkkcqglgi {akqrlla{ {ckm{ ngb lgza{eag ' R`a{a KNG{ yl` {azag jchbar{
ag{qra `n `ara ylhh oa gc k`ngka cj jrnqbqhag oq{lga{{ trnklka{ cj czar{nlgi trcjl{
kcgkanhlgi bao{ {tranblgi `a aptag{a{ cq czar {azarnh |anr{ qgbar zclklgi cr czar zclklgi
cj rny enarlnh{ lgtq{ ngb engqjnkqrab trcbqk{ qgbar cr czar {nlgi cj {ckm{ tnbblgi
qt cj trcfak kc{ ngb blzarlgi cj jqgb{ n ircqgblgi kcg{rqklcg araklcg ngb nhh {nia{ cjtrcfak lethaeagnlcg ngb tqohlknlcg cj jnh{ljlab jlgngklnh ratcr{' R`a KNG{ cj RCT Rnp
{|{ae kng nh{c k`akm `a blzar{lcg cj jqgb{ jrce cga kcetng| c ngc`ar kcetng| yl`lg `a
ircqt kcetngla{ ({nea trcecar{,' R`a RCT np {|{ae ilza{ n oli occ{ c {ckm enrma{ n{
tactha {nr oq|lgi `qia hc{ cj {`nra{ c enlgnlg elgleqe onhngka lg `alr nkkcqg{ lg crbar
c nzclb Trcjl np' R`ara ylhh oa gc {ligljlkng ajjak cj RCT np {|{ae cg lgrnbn| rnblgi ngb
Jqqra ctlcg{ rnblgi oaknq{a `a hcc{ar hcc{a{ aprn 2! cj `a hc{{ necqg cgh| lg `a
lgrnbn| rnblgi' Tactha ylhh trajar c oq| {`nra{ cg `a hcgi are ngb nggqnh |lahb on{l{' R`a|
lgza{ lg `a kcetngla{ y`lk` ilza `ngb{cea blzlbagb{ |anr njar |anr'
RCT Rnp {|{ae{ jlza enlg cofaklza{ nra >,R`a np kchhaklcg{ jrce
tactha ?, `a bl{rloqlcg cj razagqa{ jrce iczargeag{ c tactha lg `a jcre cj {qo{lbla{rahlaj jqgb{ lg `a azag cj gnqrnh knhnella{ hlma anr` ~qnma{ jhccb{ jnelga{ tag{lcg{
kn{` rng{jar{ cynrb{ ecg`h| rnlcg{ `c{tlnh olhh{ abqknlcg olhh{ a' ;, trczlblgi nhh
on{lk {arzlka{ lgkhqblgi rail{rnlcg{ cj ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ brlzlgi hlkagka{
nlr oq{ rnlg lkma{ tarel{ hlkagka{ tn|eag cj ahakrlkl| ahat`cga olhh{ ynar ka{{
`cq{a npa{ l{{qa cj zcar hl{{ ngb zcar {hlt{ olr` ngb ban` rail{rnlcg{ kag{q{ jliqra{
n azar| bn| azar| `cqr azar| elgqa (qghlma n azar| baknba lg `a tra{ag {|{ae,
2, hagblgi ecga| c ocrrcyar{ n `a hcya{ TH_ (nzarnia ;!tar nggqe,' Nhh `a{a
cofaklza{ kng oa ea ngb knrrlab `rcqi` ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ c nhh tactha n {lgiha
ylgbcy {lqnab ganra{ c `alr `cea{ (1, lethaeagnlcg cj yahjnra {k`aea{ c OK{ [K{
[R{ cynrb{ abqknlcg {ahj aethc|eag ngb c`ar nran{ ngb ecg`h| tag{lcg{ c {aglcrkllvag{ (yl` gc cr tnhr| lgkcea{, ngb t`|{lknhh| k`nhhagiab'
RCT Rnp {|{ae{ enlg cofaklza{ ylhh oa knrrlab `rcqi` ongm{#{arzlka
kagra{ n no{chqah| jraa cj kc{' R`a `qia aptagblqra kc{ oalgi lgkqrrab o| `a znrlcq{
[na Iczargeag{ ngb Kagrnh Iczargeag jcr np kchhaklcg{ `rcqi` bljjarag np kchhaklcg
batnreag{ ylhh oa {nzab' R`q{ `a `qia np kchhaklcg aptagblqra {nzab kng oa oaar
qlhl{ab jcr trczlblgi jraa `anh` knra {arzlka ngb abqknlcg c nhh tactha cj `a gnlcg'
Nhh `a anrglgi{#{nzlgi{ cj ng lgblzlbqnh batc{lab lg `alr ra{taklza
nkkcqg{ (E[N#[[N, lg `a jcre cj gqearlknh#blilnh znhqa kng oa qlhl{ab n ng| lea jcr
oq|lgi cj ecznoha cr leecznoha trctar| cr jcr ng| c`ar hainhh| nhhcyab tqrtc{a' R`a
qgqlhl{ab batc{l{ ylhh oa bl{oqr{ab n{ hcng{ c `a ocrrcyar{ o| `a ongm{ n `a hcya{hagblgi rna (nzarnia ;! tar nggqe n{ ctarnlgi kc{,' R`a cnh trcjl{ (ng a{lenab
:2
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
17/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >9
ngb `a| kng eaa nhh `a cofaklza{ cj RCT Rnp {|{ae l'a' trczlblgi nhh on{lk {arzlka{ c tactha
n no{chqah| jraa cj kc{ n {lgiha ylgbcy'
Tqohlk Bl{rloqlcg [|{ae ylhh oa knrrlab `rcqi` ongm{#ongmlgi {arzlka
kagra{'R`a RCT Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ bl{rloqlcg cj ecg`h| rnlcg{ lg `a jcre cj kn{` a~qnhhlgi
`a cnh kc{ cj irnlg{ ngb {qo{lb| tcrlcg cj marc{aga#HTI {qinr kccmlgi clh rng{jarrab
blrakh| c `a Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ (E[N, cj jnelhla{ y`c{a nggqnh lgkcea{ nra ha{{ `ng
_{'> 14444 cr n{ baklbab o| `a Iczargeag n `a oqbia tra{agnlcg azar| |anr' R`a
ecg`h| kn{` rng{jar{ {`cqhb oa enba cg `a >{
cj azar| ecg` c `a yceag{ E[N cj ank`
jnelh|' R`l{ {|{ae ylhh {arza ali` tqrtc{a{' (>, R`a aetcyareag cj yceag kng oa
nk`lazab n han{ c {cea apag' (?, R`a el{q{a cj qgqlhl{ab rnlcg (rlka#y`an marc{aga
{qinr kccmlgi clh ak', o| `a banhar{ ylhh oa kqroab' (;, R`ara ylhh oa gc nbqharnlcg cj bla{ah
ngb tarch yl` qgqlhl{ab #el{q{ab marc{aga `rcqi` TB[' (2, R`a `l`arc klrkqlcq{ kc{h|
ngb kcrrqtlcg rlbbag TB[ ylhh oa icga' (1, R`a trlka{ cj kceecblla{ ylhh kcea bcyg
{qo{nglnhh|' (:, Tactha kng oq| ~qnhl| irnlg{ cj `alr k`cc{lgi o| q{lgi kn{`' (9, R`a trlka cj
marc{aga kng oa enba cg tnr yl` bla{ah ahlelgnlgi nbqharnlcg cj bla{ah ngb tarch' (0, R`a
el{q{a cj HTI jcr kceearklnh tqrtc{a ylhh oa cnhh| kqroab' (> jnklhlnlgi `a cnh raecznh cj {qo{lb|
cg jarlhlvar{ ngb l{ el{q{a o| jarlhlvar kcetngla{'
R`a jlj` ngb ec{ letcrng cofaklza{ cj ongm{#ongmlgi {arzlka kagra{ ylhh oa `a
engniaeag cj azar| lgblzlbqnh{ nhh ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ lg ahakrcglk#blilnh
jcren{ lg `a jlza {atnrna jchbar{ lg Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N,'
Lg `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `a Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, yl` jlza jchbar{ cj
ank` tar{cg {`nhh oa qlhl{ab n{ `a ba%en nkkcqg cj `n tar{cg jcr `chblgi ecga| bao
ecga| ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ hlma {`nra{ hngb{ thc{ jhn{ ichb {lhzar fayahhar|
crgneag{ zar| `li` znhqab nrlkha{ eccr k|kha{ knr{ c`ar za`lkha{ ngb nhh c`ar
trctarla{#n{{a{' Y`lha tqrk`n{lgi cr {ahhlgi `a rng{jar cj `a{a n{{a{#trctarla{ jrce cga
tar{cg c ngc`ar tar{cg {`nhh oa enba jrce cga tar{cg{ E[N c ngc`ar tar{cg{ E[N
`rcqi` ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ lg ng ahakrcglk jcre'
Qgbar `a RCT np {|{ae hngb{ thc{ jhn{ cr c`ar trctarla{ tqrk`n{ab {`cqhb oa
enba `rcqi` enlg {nzlgi{ nkkcqg cgh|' Lj ng| tar{cg oq|{ hngb thc jhn cr ng| c`artrctar| ng|y`ara lg Lgbln `a apag ngb gnqra cj `a trctar| ylhh oa krablab lg `l{ Enlg
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
18/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >0
[nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ngb `a {nea trctar| ylhh oa baolab jrce `a {ahhar{ Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg
(E[N,' Y`agazar `a#{`a {ahh{ ng| trctar| `n l{ krablab lg `l{ E[N `a {nea ylhh oa
baolab jrce `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ngb `a {nea trctar| ylhh oa krablab lg `a
oq|ar{ Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg E[N,' Fq{ hlma {`nra{ `ara ylhh oa gc tntar bckqeag{ jcr
ecznoha#leecznoha trctarla{' Qghlma kn{` rng{jar{ `a oq|ar{ tra{agka ngb
{lignqra#nq`aglknlcg {`nhh nh{c oa gaabab jcr ng| ecznoha cr leecznoha trctar|
rng{nklcg'
;' Ecga| {qtth| ranh ecga| ngb krabl ecga|RCT Rnp {|{ae{ Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg E[N ylhh `nza jlza jchbar{ jcr ecga| {`nra{#{ckm{
ocgb{ barlznlza{ ecznoha trctar| leecznoha trctar| ngb jnelh|' R`a [qo [nzlgi{
Nkkcqg ylhh `nza cgh| cga jchbar jcr ecga|' R`a Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar ylhh `nza {azag
jchbar{ jcr ecga| ecznoha trctar| leecznoha trctar| {akqrlla{ rny enarlnh{ ngb c`ar
lgtq{ eng tcyar engqjnkqrab trcbqk{' R`a jlr{ jchbar cj nhh `a{a `raa nkkcqg{ ylhh oa
q{ab jcr {crnia ngb q{nia cj ecga| jcr tar{cgnh cr oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{rlnh tqrtc{a' Jcr
banlhab q{nia cj `a{ankkcqg{ than{a {aa tnia gqeoar>9 ngb >0'
Rct Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ `a Kn{` ra{arza _nlc K__ tarengagh| n >4!' Nhh `a hcng{
nmag o| ng| tar{cg ylhh oa rakcrbab ngb enlgnlgab lg `a {qo jchbar knhhab Bao ecga|
jchbar cj `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg' R`a hcng ecga| l{ knhhab Bao ecga|' [lelhnrh| `a
ocrrcylgi{ cj ecga| (hcng{, jcr lgbq{rla{ rqg o| kcrtcrna kcetngla{ cr tqohlk kcetngla{
ylhh oa rakcrbab ngb enlgnlgab lg `a {qo jchbar knhhab Bao ecga| jchbar cj Kcrtcrna
Nkkcqg Gqeoar{ (KNG{, cj `c{a kcetngla{' R`a cnh ecga| lg nhh E[N{ [[N{ KNG{ Ongm
nkkcqg{ ngb Iczargeag nkkcqg{ ylhh oa kcg{ng `rcqi`cq `a |anr yl` n hlha znrlnlcg
cj '4>! oaknq{a cj elgl{kqha tntar kqrragk|' R`a cnh hcng{#nbzngka{ ilzag o| nhh Ongm{
(rakcrbab n{ Bao ecga| lg Bat ecga| jchbar{ cj E[N{ ngb KNG{, {`cqhb gc oa ecra `ng
29';9! (lj K__ 5 >4!, cj `a cnh ecga|#hl~qlb ecga| (ecga| y`lk` lgkhqba{ oc` ranh
ecga| ngb hcng ecga|, lg nhh E[N{ [[N{ KNG{ngb Ongm{ cyg kntlnh ecga|'
R`a ecga| jchbar cjOngm{ Nkkcqg ylhh `nza l{ kntlnh ecga| ngb trcjl{' L l{ knhhab
kntlnh ecga|#jlpab ecga|' L l{ knhhab n{ jlpab ecga| oaknq{a l knggc oa ilzag n{ hcng n{
ranh ecga|' R`a ongm{ kntlnh ecga| ylhh oa q{ab c tn| {nhnrla{ ngb cynrb{ c`ar ctarnlgi
kc{{ cj `n ongm' Nhh `a hcng{ ilzag o| l ylhh oa rakcrbab lg ngc`ar {qo jchbar knhhab hcng
ecga| jchbar' L{ gqearlknh jliqra{ {`cqhb oa lg rab kchcqr' Azar| lea `a ongm ilza{ hcng{
`a Ongm{ kntlnh ecga|#jlpab ecga| {`cqhb gc oa k`ngiab' Oq `a ilzag hcng ecga| ylhh
oa nbbab c `a Ongm{ hcng ecga| nkkcqg lg hcng ecga| jchbar' Kcrra{tcgblgih| `a hcng
necqg ylhh oa nbbab c `a hl~qlb ecga| nkkcqg cjE[N cr [[N cr KNG y`c `n{ nmag `nhcng ngb n `a {nea lea `a hcng necqg ylhh oa rakcrbab lg `a Bao ecga| jchbar cj `a
{nea E[N cr [[N cr KNG' Y`ag n hcng l{ ratnlb `a trlgkltha necqg cj `n hcng ylhh ic lg c
`a hcng ecga| nkkcqg cj `n Ongm nkkcqg ngb hcng necqg lg rab kchcqr bakran{a{ o| `a
ratnlb hcng necqg' Oq `a lgara{ necqg cj `n hcng {`cqhb oa krablab c `a Ongm{
kntlnh ecga|#jlpab ecga|' [lelhnrh| y`agazar n hcng l{ ratnlb `rcqi` ng| E[N cr KNG `a
tnlb necqg ylhh oa bakran{ab jrce oc` `a hl~qlb ecga| nkkcqg ngb bao ecga| nkkcqg
cj `a {nea E[N cr KNG' Than{a gca `n y`ag Ongm(P, ilza{ hcng{ l{ kntlnh ecga|#jlpab
ecga| ycqhb gc k`ngia oq lgkran{a{ y`ag lgara{ cg hcng{ tnlb c l ngb bakran{a{ y`ag
Ongm(P,{ {nhnrla{ ngb c`ar ctarnlgi kc{{ nra tnlb' Ongm{ {nhnrla{ ngb c`ar
rqgglgi#ctarnlgi kc{{ {`cqhb oa tnlb jrce `a kntlnh ecga|#jlpab ecga| cj `a Ongm{Nkkcqg' [c `a kntlnh ecga|#jlpab ecga| elgq{ `a lgllnh kntlnh nra Ongm{ trcjl{' Lj `a
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
19/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >
5
`a ranh ecga| >44 ylhh oa 4! `ag `a cnh krabl `n kng oa iagarnab hag
ngb nbbab c `a ranh ecga| ylhh oa 4! nggqnh nzarnia {letha lgara{ 5 ;!
ctarnlgi kc{ cj ongm{ 5 \ ngb cnh rail{rnlcg k`nria{ cj nhh leecznoha ngb ecznoha
trctarla{ 5 P `ag `a cnh trcjl{ tar nggqe ic o| nhh Ongm{ lg `a kcqgr| 5 ](T%T#>4, P;#>44U - P\' R`n eang{ cnh trcjl{ 5 ?9T#>444 - P \' R`n lethla{ trcjl{ 5 (4'4?9! cj T,
- P % \' R`a{a enpleqe trcjl{ ylhh `nza c oa {`nrab o| nhh Ongm ctarncr{ lg `a kcqgr|'
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
20/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?4
Ank` Ongm ctarncr{ trcjl ylhh batagb qt cg `a ranh ecga| nznlhnoha lg nhh E[N{ [[N{ ngb
KNG{ l ctarna{' [c `a Ongm ctarncr{ ylhh zla yl` cga ngc`ar jcr ecra nkkcqg{ o|
trczlblgi trcet ngb ~qnhl| {arzlka{ c l{ kq{cear{' _anh ecga| eang{ cnh hl~qlb ecga|
elgq{ cnh hcng ecga|#baoecga| ilzag o| ongm{' Than{a {aa tnia gqeoar >0 ngb >< jcr
tc{{loha ctarnlgi kc{ cj `a Ongm{ ngb `alr trcjl{' Ongm{ kntlnh lgza{eag knggc oa
yl`brnyg jrce a ongm qgha{{ l l{ apkaabab cga glg` znhqa{ cj l{ cnh hcng{ ilzag' Lg
c`ar ycrb{ cgh| `a aprn ecga| y`lk` eang{ trcjl{ czar `a lgllnh kntlnh lgza{eag kng
oa yl`brnyg jrce `a Ongm o| l{ trcecar{' RCT Rnp {|{ae ag{qra{ `n ecga| {qtth| bca{
gc ia {nignab lg `a jlgngklnh {|{ae n{ apka{{ ra{arza{ oaknq{a cj `a{a jchhcylgi jnkcr{'
R`a jlr{ cga l{ `a Trcjl Rnp y`lk` kcg{ngh| tqet{ ecga| onkm lg c `a jlgngklnh {|{ae'
R`a {akcgb cga l{ `a hlelab tntar kqrragk| y`lk` cnhh| raecza{ ohnkm ecga| n {rcgi`chb
cj {nignab ngb `loargnab ecga| lg raka{{lcg tarlcb{' R`a `lrb jnkcr l{ hcy lgara{ rna{
ngb jn{ar {ngklcglgi cj hcng{ oaknq{a nhh kcetcgag{ cj ecga| ngb yanh` nra rakcrbab
{crab enlgnlgab ngb q{ab lg `a {nea E[N{ ngb KNG{'Azar| |anr nbbllcgnh ranhecga| a~qnhhlgi 1?':;! cj `a znhqa cj `a ircy` lg `a
IBT elgq{ `a znhqa cj `a ircy` (lj ng|, lg `a aptcr{ y`ag kcetnrab c hn{ |anr {`cqhb
oa nbbab c `a Iczargeag nkkcqg n `a lea oqbia tra{agnlcg c k`akm bajhnlcg ngb
raka{{lcg' R`a enfcr tcrlcg (14!, cj `l{ nbbab ecga| {`cqhb oa nhhcknab cynrb{ tag{lcg{
c {aglcr kllvag{ y`c `nza gc cr tnhr| lgkcea{' R`a raenlglgi tcrlcg {`nhh oa nhhcknab c
yahjnra {k`aea{ `anh` knra {arzlka{ ngb abqknlcg ngb lgjrn{rqkqra {akcr{' Cgka `l{ ranh
ecga| l{ nbbab ngb eariab lg `a klrkqhnlgi ecga| `a raenlglgi tcrlcg cj 29';9! cj `a
znhqa cj `a ircy` lg `a IBT elgq{ `a znhqa cj `a ircy` (lj ng|, ylhh nh{c oa iagarnab
`rcqi` hcng{ n{ bao ecga|#hcng ecga| o| `a ongm{ ngb nbbab c `a klrkqhnlgi ecga| lg
`a jlgngka {|{ae' R`a ongm{ trcjl{ ylhh lgkran{a `rcqi` lgara{{ cg `l{ nbbllcgnh hcngecga| azar| |anr' RCT Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ `n cnh hl~qlb ecga| (ranh ecga| ngb bao
ecga|#hcng ecga|, c oa gaka{{nr| jcr klrkqhnlcg lg ongm{ {`cqhb oa n `a elgleqe hazah
>?4! ngb n enpleqe hazah >14! cj `a znhqa cj IBT cj `a kcqgr|' N{{qelgi `n ank`
kceecbl|#{arzlka l{ k`ngiab `ngb{ `raa lea{ lg `a kcg{qear ranlhar banhar ngb
engqjnkqra k`nlg `a k|kha{ cj `a cnh ecga| lg `a klrkqhnlcg ylhh oa n nzarnia `raa tar
|anr'
R`a cnh ecga| (hl~qlb ecga|, Bao Ecga|#hcngab ecga| {`nra{#{ckm{ ecznoha
trctarla{ ngb leecznoha trctarla{ cj lgblzlbqnh{ cr lgbq{rla{ ylhh oa {crab rakcrbab
enlgnlgab ngb rng{jcreab lg `a {nea nkkcqg{ cj E[N{ ngb KNG{' R`a ecznoha ngb
leecznoha trctarla{ kng oa ecriniab ngb rng{jcreab lg c hl~qlb ecga| jcr tar{cgnhoq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| tqrtc{a' [lgka nhh `a ecga| bao{ {`nra{ ngb n{{a{ nra rakcrbab hlgmab
ngb kcznhagh| ocgbab cia`ar qgbar bljjarag jchbar{ lg `a {nea Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg lg
`a kn{a cj lgblzlbqnh{ ngb lg `a kcrtcrnankkcqg gqeoar{ lg `a kn{a cj kcetngla{= `a
trcka{{ cj hcng {ngklcg ylhh oa jn{ar ngb {ec`ar' R`ara ylhh oa gc bajnqh{ cg hcng{ ngb
gcgtarjcrelgi n{{a{ knhhab GTN{' Cgka `a hcng{ nra ratnlb `a n{{a{ ylhh oa rahan{ab jrce
ecrinia lg{ngh|' R`a cnh ranh ecga| ngb Bao ecga|#hcng ecga| `a ranh n{{a{ ngb
ecriniab n{{a{ cj ng lgblzlbqnh cr n kcetng| kng oa an{lh| bl{lgiql{`noha' Lg `a tra{ag
{|{ae ecga| {`nra{ ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ nra rakcrbab ngb enlgnlgab o|
bljjarag lg{lqlcg{ batnreag{ ngb niagkla{' Hcng ecga|#nbzngka{ nra enlgnlgab lg
{atnrna nkkcqg{' [c `a ranh ecga| ngb hcngab ecga|#krabl ecga| nra elgihab cia`aroa|cgb rakcigllcg ngb gc an{lh| bl{lgiql{`noha o| kqr{cr| {qb| cj `a nkkcqg{' R`a
tra{ag {|{ae{ eqhltha iagarnlcg cj ecga| {qtth| `rcqi` hcng{ cg hcng{ l{ nkqnhh|
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
21/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?>
bynrjlgi `a ranh ecga| ngb knq{lgi qgkcgrchhab lgjhnlcg ngb nkkqeqhnlcg cj ecga| lg n
jay tckma{'
Y`| `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ cnh raecznh cj
lgara{ rna{ cg baengb batc{l{ ngb jlpab batc{l{3Ng| rqh| baeckrnlk Iczargeag {`cqhb ag{qra `n yanh` jhcy{
jrce `a rlk` c `a tccr' Oq qgjcrqgnah| `a lgzar{a l{ `nttaglgi lg `a tra{ag {|{ae'
Ecga| `n{ oaag kcg{ngh| rng{jarrlgi jrce `a `nza%gc{ c `a `nza{ lg `a jcre cj
lgara{ rna{ cg baengb batc{l{ ngb jlpab batc{l{' R`a rlk` nra oakcelgi rlk`ar o| n
han{ 0! azar| |anr ngb `a tccr nra ialgi tccrar azar| |anr o| tn|lgi lgara{ lgblrakh|
cg baengb#jlpab batc{l{ cj `a rlk` y`lha oq|lgi a{{aglnh kceecblla{#{arzlka{ ngb
blrakh| tn|lgi `rcqi` `li` lgara{{ cg `a hcng{ nmag o| `ae' R`a ongm{ nra tn|lgi `qia
necqg{ n{ lgara{{ c `a rlk` o| aprnklgi blrakh| jrce `a tccr `rcqi` `li` lgara{
rna{ cg `a hcng{ ilzag c `ae ngb lgblrakh| `rcqi` lgara{{ cg hcng{ ilzag c rlk`
lgbq{rlnhl{{ n{ `a lgbq{rlnhl{{ azagqnhh| tn{{ cg `a lgara{ oqrbag c `a kcg{qear{ o|
ag`ngklgi `a trlka{ cj kceecblla{#{arzlka{' R`a enfcrl| cj `a tactha `nza c ycrm aprn
`nrb gc cgh| c anrg jcr `ae{ahza{ oq nh{c c tn| `a lgara{ cg `a batc{l{ cj `a rlk`
nh`cqi` lgblrakh| o| oq|lgi lgara{ kcetcgag lgkhqbab kceecblla{#{arzlka{ n `li`ar
trlka{' R`a `nza%gc{ nra tn|lgi `a aglra lgara{ necqg{ cg batc{l{ ngb {nzlgi{ al`ar
blrakh| cr lgblrakh| o| bajnqh' Lg{anb cj q{lgi ecga| n{ eablqe jcr rng{jar cj
kceecblla{ cr {arzlka{ oayaag tactha `a ecga| l{ahj l{ oalgi q{ab n{ ng n{{a c
iagarna lgkcea{ `rcqi` lgara{{' R`a nkkqeqhnlcg ngb {nkmlgi cj ecga| o| ng
lgblzlbqnh l{ iagarnlgi ecga| jcr trciag| iagarnlcg njar iagarnlcg' R`a iagarnlcg cj
ecga| cg {crab ecga| l{ gc`lgi oq n babqklcg cj ecga| jrce `nrb anrglgi ycrmlgi
khn{{' R`l{ tnrn{llk tchlk| cj `a rlk` jaablgi cg `a tccr o| {nttlgi nhh `alr agari| c `a
{qtargnkqhqe ylhh oa agbab yl` `a nbctlcg ngb lethaeagnlcg cj RCT Rnp {|{ae' RCT
Rnp {|{ae ylhh ag{qra `n ecga| ylhh oa tqrah| q{ab n{ eablqe jcr rng{jar cj
kceecblla{ cr {arzlka{ necgi tactha'
@agka `a RCT Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ cnh raecznh cj lgara{{ cg jlpab
batc{l{ ngb baengb batc{l{' R`a rlk` ylhh `nza c {tagb apnkh| `a necqg `a| anrg cr
{nza ngb gc n tagg| ecra ic o| zlrqa cj lgara{' Oq n `a {nea lea `a rlk` ylhh `nza
iranar oagajl{ lg `a RCT Rnp {|{ae' R`a| gaab gc tn| Lgkcea np n nhh' R`a| kng {tagb
y`nazar ecga| `a| anrg yl`cq oc`arlgi nocq nkkcqglgi nqbllgi ngb lgkcea np
raqrg{' R`a cnh ecga| {nzab jrce lgkcea np cg aglra anrglgi{#{nzlgi{ bqrlgi `alr hlja
lea ylhh oa ecra `ng `a lgara{ hc{ cg `alr batc{l{' Ecra letcrngh| `a tccr ylhh iaecga| n hcy lgara{ rna{ (?! tar nggqe,' R`a| ylhh `nza `alr cyg `cea{ ngb `a| ylhh
ia a{{aglnh kceecblla{ n eqk` k`antar trlka{ `ng cbn|'
Tra{agh| enfcr {`nra cj razagqa{ cj oc` Kagra ngb [na{ l{ oalgi icoohab qt
o| `a `qia oqrbag kc{ cj lgara{ tn|eag{ cg lgargnh ocrrcylgi{' R`a `qia necqg{
{nzab cg lgara{ tn|eag{ o| `a Kagrnh ngb [na iczargeag{ cg lgargnh ocrrcylgi{
kng oa qlhl{ab c trczlba jraa `anh` knra {arzlka{ ngb ~qnhl| abqknlcg c nhh tactha cj `a
kcqgr|' L l{ rqa `n {cea cj `a {aglcr kllvag{ rah| {chah| cg ecg`h| lgara{ tn|eag{
cg `alr hlja lea {nzlgi{' @agka l l{ no{chqah| letarnlza `n `a enfcr tcrlcg cj `a
{nzab lgara{ cg lgargnh ocrrcylgi{ o| `a Kagra ngb [na{ ngb `a {nzab np kchhaklcg
aptagblqra kc{ {`cqhb oa ilzag c nhh {aglcr kllvag{ (yl` gc cr tnhr| lgkcea{, nocza `ania cj :1 |anr{ n{ tag{lcg azar| ecg`'
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
22/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ??
Nhh `a tra{ag bn| k`l jqgb kcetngla{ jlgngklnh lg{lqlcg{ ylhh `nza c k`ngia `alr
ctarnlcg{ ngb {arzlka{ ngb rng{jcre lgc ongmlgi {arzlka kagra{' RCT Rnp {|{ae ra~qlra{
1 44444 ongmlgi {arzlka kagra{ ({aa tnia gqeoar >:,' R`a hc{{ cj aethc|eag lg `a np
kchhaklcg batnreag{ ngb TB[ ylhh oa kcetag{nab o| engljchb aethc|eag iagarnlcg
`rcqi` hnria gqeoar cj ongmlgi {arzlka kagra{ `qiah| aptngbab `anh` knra abqknlcg
lgjrn{rqkqra nirc lrrlinlcg ngb c`ar {akcr{' [aa tnia >: c >' Hlelab tntar kqrragk| n n hcy bagcelgnlcg znhqa ylhh ag{qra `a cnh aplgklcg cj jnma
kqrragk|'
?' Ohnkm ecga| ylhh nh{c eaa `a {nea jna n{ tactha ylhh oa jcrkab c rng{jar ecga| jrce
cga nkkcqg c ngc`ar nkkcqg `rcqi` k`a~qa baol knrb cr cghlga rng{jar{ jcr nhh
rng{nklcg{ jcr tar{cgnh cr oq{lga{{ tqrtc{a'
;' _ng{ce{ apcrlcg{ orloa{ rcooarla{ ngb nhh lhhainh nklzlla{ ylhh kcea c ng agb n{ `qia
apk`ngia cj kqrragk| n `li` bagcelgnlcg znhqa{ ylhh gc oa tc{{loha oaknq{a azar|
lgblzlbqnh{ anrglgi{ cr {nzlgi{ ylhh oa lg enarlnhl{ab jcre lg `l{#`ar E[N cr [[N{'
2' R`ara ylhh oa gc {kcta jcr apk`ngia cj ecga| lg t`|{lknh jcre' Nhh ecga| rng{jar{ ylhh oa
nkkcqgab ngb `l{ ahlelgna{ np azn{lcg' Azar| nkkcqg ylhh oa ng lgzchqgnr| nptn|lgi
nkkcqg' R`q{ np kchhaklcg ngb np kcethlngka ylhh lgznrlnoh| oakcea cga ngb {nea' R`ara
ylhh oa gc np kchhaklcg kc{ jcr Iczargeag ngb np kcethlngka kc{ jcr kllvag{'
1' Qgbar tra{ag np {|{ae lj hnria gqeoar cj tar{cg{ yng{ c kngkah `alr batc{l{ ngb
yl`brny `alr ecga| jrce ongm{ n cgka jcr cga ran{cg cr c`ar `a ecga| nznlhnoha yl`
`a ongm{ ylhh gc oa {qjjlklag c bl{oqr{a c nhh tar{cg{ n cgka knq{lgi tnglk ngb k`nc{' Oq
qgbar RCT np {|{ae `a nocza {kagnrlc ylhh gazar ckkqr qgbar ng| klrkqe{ngka{ oaknq{a
ng| tar{cg kng oa nhhcyab c yl`brnylgi cgh| n enpleqe cj 1444 tar ecg` jrce `l{ Enlg
[nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, ngb y`nazar ecga| nznlhnoha lg nhh `l{ [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ ylhh `nza
c oa rng{jarrab jrce `c{a nkkcqg{ `rcqi` k`a~qa baol knrb{ cr ga ongmlgi c c`ar
tar{cg{ nkkcqg y`lha oq|lgi {`nra{( hngb{( jhn{( thc{( ng| kceecbl|( iccb{( {arzlka cr
ng|`lgi ah{a cr lg kn{a lj `a yng{ c hagb ecga| c c`ar tar{cg{' @a#{`a kng rng{jar nhh
`l{#`ar ecga| jrce `l{#`ar tnrlkqhnr E[N cr [[N c ngc`ar [[N{ cj `l{#`ar cyg nkkcqg o|
hc{lgi 2! Rct np lg `l{ trcka{{
Qgbar trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae ank` tar{cg ylhh oa nhhcyab c yl`brny n enpleqe cj _{'
1444 tar ecg` jrce {nzlgi{ cr anrglgi{ lg `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg cgh|'
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
23/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?;
R`a ecg`h| kn{` yl`brnynh hlel jcr ank` kllvag kng oa knhkqhnab n{ jchhcy{= % R`a znhqa cj
`a ]IBT znhqa cj `n kcqgr| (aptcr{ letcr{,U blzlbab o| ;:1' Than{a gc `n ank`
kllvag nocza nia cj >1 |anr{ ylhh `nza cgh| cga Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N,' R`a ecg`h|
yl`brnynh hlel (kn{` lg t`|{lknh jcre, ylhh znr| jrce kcqgr| c kcqgr|'
R`l{ noha {`cy{ `a {qiia{ab ecg`h| yl`brnynh hlel{ jcr Lgbln'
IBT ?444 OA
lg krcra{
Rcnh
tctqhnlcg
cj kcqgr|
Nttrcplena' Gc cj
E[N{ czar>1|anr{,'
Lg krcra{
Tar kntln lgkcea#
E[N#nggqe
Lg _{'
Tar kntln
lgkcea lg _{'
#E[N#ecg`
101:1:< >>: krcra{ >44 101:1 2004
R`a ecg`h| yl`brnynh hlel cj _{' 1444 kng oa lgkran{ab n oqbia lea batagblgi qtcg
`a IBT znhqa'
Qgbar trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae kqrragk| lg ?4 >4 1 ngb ? rqtaa gca{ gaabab c oa tq lgklrkqhnlcg ylhh oa nttrcplenah| znhqab n _{' ?4444krcra{' Oa{lba{ `a{a kqrragk| gca{ >
? 1 rqtaa kclg{ ylhh nh{c oa lg klrkqhnlcg n{ lg tra{ag {|{ae'
R`a hlelab tntar kqrragk| `n gaab{ c oa tq lg klrkqhnlcg en| znr| jrce kcqgr| c
kcqgr| batagblgi qtcg IBT znhqa cj `n kcqgr|'
R`a znhqa cj `a hlelab tntar kqrragk| {`cqhb oa a~qnh c `a znhqa cj `a ]IBT cj `n
kcqgr| (aptcr{ letcr{,U blzlbab o| ;:1' (Lj IBT 5 trlzna kcg{qetlcg - irc{{
lgza{eag -iczargeag {tagblgi - Aptcr{ letcr{,
Lg krcra{
IBT ?444
OA lg krcra{
Nirlkqhqra
{akcr >9!
[arzlka {akcr
11';!
Lgbq{rlnh
{akcr ?9'9!
IBT tar bn|
101:1:< :???:< >:421
[cqrka6 jlgelg'glk'lg
Cq cj cnh IBT znhqa cj _{'>:421krcra{ tar bn| ng nzarnia ;4! znhqa cj IBT
(1444krcra{, tar bn| ylhh oa ocqi` o| kn{` n jlr{ {nia' Ec{ trconoh| `a raenlglgi {akcgb
ngb `lrb {nia{ ngb ec{ trconoh| 94! cj IBT (nzarnia `raa {nia{, ylhh oa rng{nkab
`rcqi` k`a~qa baol knrb cr cghlga kn{` rng{jar{' Qgbar trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `chblgi
ngb knrr|lgi cj kn{` cj ecra `ng _{' ;4444 czar hcgi bl{ngka{ gaab c oa onggab' _anlhar{
ta| {`ct cygar{ ngb c`ar oq{lga{{eag {`cqhb batc{l `alr {nha trckaab{ rakalzab lg kn{`
lg `a ganra{ ongm{ azar| bn|' R`arajcra ec{ cj `a kqrragk| {`nhh oa klrkqhnab hcknhh|'
?449%40 jliqra{ [cqrka6 rol'cri'lg rqtaa{ krcra{
_{'?4 _{'>4 _{'1 _{'? kclg{ Rcnh
znhqa_{'1 _{'? _{'>
2>40 >> :;: ;?2< >2 ?;110
R`a nocza znhqab kqrragk| (kclg{ ngb gca{, tra{agh| lg klrkqhnlcg ylhh ec{ trconoh| oa
{qjjlklag jcr `a trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae lg `a kn{a cj Lgbln'
R`a tntar ecga| gaabab c oa tq lg klrkqhnlcg5 `a znhqa cj IBT P >4! cj {hno rna (2!,
blzlbab o| >445 znhqa cj IBT P 4'2 #>44' Tntar ecga| ylhh oa klrkqhnab lg hcy zchqea{ cgh| n
trlenr| hazah lg `a engqjnkqrar banhar ngb ranlhar ngb kcg{qear k`nlg'
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
24/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?2
R`a czarnhh tc{{loha kcetcgag cj RCT Rnp cg iccb{#{arzlka{ l{ {`cyg lg `a jchhcylgi
noha{' R`a tc{{loha RCT Rnp cg ecga| jhcy{ lg kcg{qear ranlhar banhar engqjnkqrar
k`nlg'Rnoha Gc'>6 RCT Rnp cg @li` znhqab Iccb{#[arzlka{ (Eablqe ngb @anz|, lgbq{rla{
[nia cj
{qtth| k`nlg
(ecga|
jhcy,
Jrce Kcg{qear c
Banhar(trlka,
(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#ga rng{jar
Kcg{qear
_anlhar(kceel{{lcg,
Jrce Banhar c
Engqjnkqrar(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#ga rng{jar,
Jrce
Engqjnkqrar c
_ny enarlnh{
Eng tcyar
ak(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#ga rng{jar,
RCT Rnp5>?! 2! 2! 2!
Rnoha Gc' ?6 RCT Rnp cg Hcy trlkab iccb{#trcbqk{ ([enhh {knha ngb kcnia
lgbq{rla{,
[nia cj
{qtth| k`nlg
(ecga| jhcy,
Jrce Kcg{qear c
_anlhar(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#ga rng{jar,
(kn{`,
Jrce _anlhar c
Engqjnkqrar(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#ga rng{jar,
Jrce
Engqjnkqrar c
_ny enarlnh{
Eng tcyar
ak(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#ga rng{jar,
Rcnh RCT
Rnp50!glh 2! 2!
Rnoha Gc'; RCT Rnp cg hcy trlkab iccb{#trcbqk{#nrlkha{ ({enhh {knha lgbq{rla{,
y`ag enrmaab n [na ngb Gnlcgnh hazah'
[nia cj
{qtth|
k`nlg
(Ecga|
jhcy{,
Kcg{qea
r
_anlhar
(Kn{`,
_anlhar
Banhar(k`a~qa#ba
ol knrb#ga
rng{jar,
Banhar
Engqjnkqrar(k`a~qa#ba
ol knrb#ga rng{jar,
Engqjnkqrar
_ny enarlnh{
Eng tcyar
ak'(k`a~qa#bao
l knrb#ga
rng{jar,
Rcnh5>?
! ct np
glh 2! 2! 2!
Rnoha Gc' 2 RCT Rnp cg Nirlkqhqra Trcbqka jrce {enhh ngb enrilgnh jnrear{[nia cj {qtth| k`nlg jrce Kcg{qear c Jrce Jnrear c Jnre
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
25/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?1
(ecga| jhcy{, Jnrear{(kn{`, lgtq{(kn{`,
Rcnh RCT Rnp54 glh glh
Rnoha GC'16 RCT Rnp cg Nirlkqhqra Trcbqka jrce {ael eablqe ngb eablqe jnrear{
(hcknh ngb bl{rlk hazah kcg{qetlcg,
[nia cj {qtth|
k`nlg (Ecga| jhcy,
Jrce Kcg{qear c
Zagbcr{
(kn{`,
Jrce Zagbcr{ c
Jnrear{
(kn{`,
Jnrear{ c Jnre
lgtq{ Eng tcyar
ak(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#ga rng{jar,
Rcnh RCT Rnp52! glh glh 2!
Rnoha Gc' :6 RCT Rnp cg Nirlkqhqra Trcbqka jrce hnria Jnrear{ ([na Gnlcgnh hazah
kcg{qetlcg ngb aptcr{,
[nia cj
{qtth|
k`nlg(ecga|
jhcy,
Kcg{qear
c ranlhar{
(kn{`,
Jrce _anlhar{
c
Rrnbar{(baol
knrb#ga
rng{jar,
jrce Rrnbar{ c
Jnrear{(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#ga rng{jar,
Jrce Jnrear c
Jnre lgtq{ eng
tcyar
ak(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#ga rng{jar,
Rct np5>? glh 2! 2! 2!
Rnoha gc6 9 RCT Rnp cg {enhh `cah{ ecah{ ra{nqrng{ ngb b`non{ ak
Kq{cear{ c cygar{
(kn{`,
cygar{ c irckarla{
{nhnrla{ ngb c`ar lgtq{
Rcnh RCT Rnp cg ecga|
jhcy{
Glh 2!(k`a~qa#baol knrb#ga
rng{jar,
2!
Rnoha gc6 0 RCT Rnp cg {nr `cah{
jrce Kq{cear{ c
cygar{
(baol knrb#ga rng{jar,
Jrce cygar{ c irckarla{
{nhnrla{ ngb c`ar lgtq
kc{{(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#ga rng{jar,
Rcnh RCT Rnp cg ecga|
jhcy{
RCT Rnp52! RCT Rnp52! 0!
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
26/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?:
Rnoha gc6 < RCT Rnp cg rqgglgi cj {k`cch{ ngb kchhaia{ n hcyar jaa{
Jrce Tnrag{ c
engniaeag
(kn{`,
Engniaeag c cynrb{
{nhnrla{ enarlnh{ ngb c`arlgtq kc{{(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#ga rng{jar#,
Rcnh RCT Rnp cg ecga|
jhcy{
Glh RCT Rnp52! 2!
Rnoha gc6 >4 RCT Rnp cg rqgglgi cj {k`cch{ kchhaia{ qglzar{lla{ ngb c`ar
lg{lqlcg{ n `li`ar jaa{ ngb bcgnlcg{'
tnrag{ engniaeag
(k`a~qa#baol knrb#ga
rng{jar,
engniaeag {nhnrla{ enarlnh{ ngb
c`ar lgtq kc{{(k`a~qa#baol knrb#ga
rng{jar,
Rcnh RCT
Rnp cg
ecga| jhcy
RCT Rnp52! RCT Rnp52! 0!
R`a ajjak cj RCT Rnp cg jlhe lgbq{r|
Rnoha gc6 >>
zlayar c
`anra#ap`lolar
ap`lolar#`anra
c bl{rloqcr
bl{rloqcr c
trcbqkar
Jrce trcbqkar c
trcbqklcg#aptagblqra#{nhnrla{
Rcnh RCT
np
( Lj, KN[@ Cghlga rng{jar
2!
Cghlga
rng{jar52!
Cghlga rng{jar52! >?!
Baol knrb52! 2! 2! 2! >:!
Ntnr jrce `a RCT Rnp `ara ylhh oa gc agarnlgeag np cg jlhe lgbq{r|' Nh{c `ara ylhh
oa gc c`ar npa{ `n nra oalgi tra{agh| letc{ab cg rny jlhe knearn{ ngb nhh c`ar
a~qlteag{ ngb {arzlka npa{ lg `a aglra trcbqklcg {nia'
Rnoha gc6 >? RCT Rnp cg _anh a{na {akcr
Jrce Oq|ar c
bazahctar#oqlhbar(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#ga rng{jar
Oqlhbar#bazahctar c
rny enarlnh{ ngb c`ar
lgtq kc{{(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#ga rng{jar
Rcnh RCT Rnp cg ecga|
jhcy{
RCT Rnp52! RCT Rnp52! 0!
Rnoha gc6 >; RCT Rnp cg hcy trlkab lae{#iccb{#nrlkha{#jrql{#abloha{ ak
kcg{qear c {raa
zagbcr#{ahhar#`nymar(kn{`,
Zagbcr#{ahhar#`nymar c
ranlhar#y`cha{nhar#lgtq{(kn{`,
Rcnh RCT Rnp cg ecga|
jhcy{
RCT Rnp5glh RCT Rnp5glh glh
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
27/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?9
Ajjak cj RCT Rnp {|{ae cg lgrnbn| rnblgi Lg `a tra{ag {|{ae [akqrlla{Rrng{nklcg Rnp ([RR, cg [nha cj a~ql| {`nra{ qgl{ cj a~ql| crlagab eqqnh jqgb{ lg
lgrnbn| rnblgi 5'4?!
Rnoha6 >2 apnetha Jliqra{ lg _qtaa{'
Tra{ag
{|{ae
Oq|lgi
znhqa
>44444
[ahhlgi
znhqa
444-;444-245>424
Jrce `a nocza noha l l{ co{arzab `n `ara l{ gc bl{kargloha znrlnlcg lg oc` `a
{|{ae{'
Ajjak cj RCT Rnp {|{ae cg oq|lgi cj {`nra{
Lg `a tra{ag {|{ae [akqrlla{ Rrng{nklcg Rnp ([RR, cg tqrk`n{a cr {nha cj a~ql|
{`nra{ ngb rahnab eqqnh jqgb{54'>4!
Rnoha gc6 >1 apnetha Jliqra{ lg _qtaa{
tra{ag {|{ae Znhqa cj
{`nra{5>44444
[RR5'>!cj znhqa5>44 Rcnh kc{ cj
{`nra{5>44>44
RCT Rnp {|{ae Znhqa cj
{`nra{5>44444
RCT Rnp52!cj rng{jarrab
necqg52444
Rcnh znhqa cj
{`nra{5>42444
F' Ajjak cj RCT Rnp cg tarchaqe trcbqk{ bla{ah tarch HTI marc{aga NRJ
olqeag hqorlkng{ ak
Rnoha gc6 >:
Kcg{qear
banhar#jlhhlgi {nlcg
Banhar
rajlgarla{(k`a~qa#baol
knrb#cghlga rng{jar,
rajlgarla{ {nhnrla{#rny
enarlnh{#enlgagngka
ak'( Cghlga rng{jar,
Rcnh RCT
Rnp
N, kn{` RCT Rnp52! RCT Rnp52! 0!O,Baol knrb 2! RCT Rnp5 2! RCT RNP5 2! >?!
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
28/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?0
R`a ajjak cj RCT Rnp cg ratn|eag cj hcng{ qt c _[' >4hnm`{'
_atn|eag
tarlcb
Lgara{ tar
nggqe
Rcnh
lgara{ !
RCT Rnp Rcnh
ratn|eag !
Nzarnia!
> |anr ?! ?! 2! :! :!
? |anr{ ?! ?-?52! 2! 0! 2!
; |anr{ ?! ?p;5:! 2! >4! ;';;!
2 |anr{ ?! ?p250! 2! >?! ;!
RCT Rnp kng oa nzclbab o| ratn|lgi hcng necqg blrakh| jrce `a {cqrka cj n tar{cg{ lgkcea
c `a ongm nkkcqg cr ecga| hagbar{ nkkcqg jrce y`ce `a hcng `n{ oaag nmag' R`a
nzarnia lgara{ ! ylhh oa ha{{ cg hcng{ nmag czar hcgiar tarlcb'
Than{a gca `n `a cnh RCT Rnp cg nhh kceecblla{#{arzlka{ {`cyg nocza lg nhh
noha{ ylhh oa nkqnhh| ha{{' R`a ran{cg jcr `l{ l{ `n `a nkqnh RCT Rnp cg nhh
kceecblla{#{arzlka{ 5 2! cj tqrk`n{a trlka n ranlhar - 2! cj (banhar trlka ranlhar{
trcjl, - 2! cj (engqjnkqrar trlkabanhar{ trcjl engqjnkqrar trcjl,' [c `a np ylhh oa
cgh| cg trlka cj `a kceecbl|#trlka ngb ranlhar{ trcjl cgh| apkhqblgi `a banhar ngb
engqjnkqrar{ trcjl{'
Oq lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae `a cnh np kcetcgag cj ng| kceecbl|#{arzlka
nh{c lgkhqba{ `a np cg `a ranlhar{( banhar{ ngb engqjnkqrar{ trcjl{' @agka `akcg{qear l{ tn|lgi np gc cgh| cg `a trlka cj `a kceecbl|#{arzlka oq nh{c cg `a cnh
trcjl{ cj nhh `a thn|ar{ lg `a enrma' [c `a np l{ oalgi hazlab cg `a trlka cj `a
kceecbl|#{arzlka ngb nhh `a trcjl{ cj ranlhar banhar ngb engqjnkqrar kceolgab
cia`ar' Lg hlarnh {ag{a `a kc{ cj ng| kceecbl|#{arzlka lgkhqba{ `a engqjnkqrlgi kc{
`a cnh trcjl{ `a lgara{ kcetcgag `a cnh np kcetcgag ngb kcrrqtlcg
kcetcgag' R`a hcy lgara{ rna{ `a hcya{ np rna{ gc kcrrqtlcg kcetcgag lg RCT Rnp
{|{ae ylhh ag{qra `a nznlhnolhl| cj kceecblla{#{arzlka{ n eqk` rabqkab trlka{ `ng lg
`a tra{ag {|{ae'
R`a {hno rna (2!, cg nhh ecga| rng{jar{ l{ {nea ngb jlpab ngb ylhh oa nqcenlknhh|
babqkab jrce nhh nkkcqg{ ctarnab o| ongm{ ngb rng{jarrab c `a [na ngb Kagra{
kceolgab nkkcqg ([NKKN,' R`a c`ar np Kagrnh Apkl{a bq| ntnr jrce RCT np {`cqhb oa
letc{ab `anzlh| cg `raa lae{%% klinraa{ hl~qcr ngb knr{ {c n{ c bl{kcqrnia tactha jrce
{ecmlgi nhkc`ch kcg{qetlcg ngb c bakcgia{ rcnb{ lg kcqgrla{ y`ara tctqhnlcg bag{l|
l{ zar| `li`'
Yl` hcy np rna{ lg `a RCT Rnp {|{ae y`ag kcetnrab yl` tra{ag npnlcg
{|{ae `a iczargeag ylhh `nza `a enpleqe engcaqzrnolhl| lg cnh bakcgrchhlgi cj `a
ranlh trlka{ cj tarch ngb bla{ah y`lha nhliglgi bcea{lk trlka{ yl` ihconh cga{' Azag yl`
cnh bakcgrch cj `a trlka{ cj tarch ngb bla{ah `a trlka{ ylhh oa n tnr cr oahcy `a
tra{ag trlka{ cnhh| yltlgi cq `a qgbar rakczarla{ cj `a enfcr tqohlk {akcr clh
kcetngla{ ngb {qo{nglnhh| bakran{lgi `a hazah cj iczargeag {qo{lbla{'
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
29/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?4 hnm`{'
Nhh jliqra{ nra nttrcplenab
Gqeoar cj Ongm orngk`a{#{arzlka kagra{ ra~qlrab 144444
Gqeoar cj Aethc|aa{ ra~qlrab (>p;, >144444
N6 Ctarnlgi kc{ tar |anr6 _qtaa{ lg krcra{
Rnoha %N
>144444 aethc|aa{ {nhnrla{ (_{ >1444 tar ecg` jcr ank` aethc|aa, jcr `a
|anr }>144444Gc{' p >1444_{' p >?ecg`{u?9444
N{ ec{ cj `a ongm orngk`a{#{arzlka kagra{ ylhh oa a{nohl{`ab Lg rqrnh nran{
zlhhnia{ eqglkltnhlla{ cyg{`lt{ kchcgla{ nzarnia rag tar orngk` ylhh oa
nrcqgb _{ >4444 tar ecg` Rcnh kc{ cj rag tar nggqe }144444orngk`a{ p
>4444 _{' p >?ecg`{u
:444
ahakrlkl| olhh tar nggqe }144444orngk`a{ p >4444 _{' p >?ecg`{u :444
[nlcgnr| k`nria{ tar nggqe }144444orngk`a{ p >4444 _{' p >?ecg`{u :444
Enlgagngka lgkh' lgarga }144444orngk`a{ p >4444 _{' p >?ecg`{u :444
Rcnh Ctarnlgi Kc{ tar \anr 1>444
Qgbar RCT np {|{ae nhh lgara{ rna{ ylhh oa raeczab cg Rlea batc{l{ ngb baengb
batc{l{'
Njar a{nohl{`lgi {qjjlklag gqeoar cj ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ o| `a Iczargeag yl` `a `aht
cj trlzna {akcr ongm{ ngb jlgngklnh lg{lqlcg{ nhh `a kllvag{ cj Lgbln gaab c oa n{mab c
batc{l nhh `a kqrragk| gca{ cj >444 144 >44 ngb 14 rqtaa{ apkat ?4 >4 1 ? rqtaa
gca{#kclg{ nznlhnoha yl` `ae lg `a{a ongm{ lg `alr Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, cr [qo
[nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ ([[N, yl`lg n {ltqhnab lea cj ;4 bn|{' Nhh tra{agh| rqg {nzlgi{ nkkcqg{ngb kqrrag nkkcqg{ ycqhb oa kcgzarab lg c [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ ([[N{, yl` `a {nea
nkkcqg gqeoar{ ngb kng oa ctarnab jrce `a {nea ongm{' [lelhnrh| tactha y`c `nza
ecga| lg `a jlpab batc{l{ ngb JB_{ ylhh `nza c rng{jar nhh `alr ecga| jrce `a{a jlpab
batc{l{ ngb JB_{ c `alr ra{taklza gayh| ilzag E[N{ cr gayh| ctagab#kcgzarab [[N{
yl`lg `a {nea {ltqhnab tarlcb cj ;4 bn|{' Tactha ylhh `nza c {tagb apnkh| `a necqg
`a| anrgab#{nzab ngb gc n tagg| ecra (ic o| zlrqa cj lgara{ {c jnr, n{ ngb y`ag ngb lg
y`nazar enggar `a| yng' Than{a {aa tnia 2 c :' Apkat `a elgl{kqha tnr cj `a ecga| lg
t`|{lknh jcre cj _{' ?4 ngb _{' >4 cq{lba `a {|{ae `a aglra ecga| cj tactha ngb
Iczargeag ylhh oa lg{lba `a RCT Rnp {|{ae lg `a ongm{ lg blilnh#gqearlknh znhqa lg `raa
|ta{ cj nkkcqg{ E[N [[N KNG' R`a `qia ecga| nznlhnoha yl` `a ongm{ ylhh oa hag n hcylgara{ rna{' R`a trlea hagblgi rna{ ylhh oa ?! {letha lgara{ tar nggqe qt c _{' >4
44444 ngb cgh| 2! {letha lgara{ tar nggqe cg necqg{ nocza _{' >4 44444'
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
30/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ;4
O6 Lgkcea{ `rcqi` Lgara{{ qgbar RCT np {|{ae _qtaa{ lg krcra{
Nhh jliqra{ barlzab jrce ?44< nttrcplena a{lena{
Rcnh are batc{l{ cj nhh ongm{ (a{lenab, ?01190444 144 >44 ngb 14 rqtaa gca{
nznlhnoha yl` tactha ylhh `nza c oa batc{lab lg `alr Enlg [nzlgi{
Nkkcqg (E[N, cr [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ([[N,' Nhh gca{ apkat ? 1 >4
ngb ?4 rqtaa gca{ gaab c oa baecgal{ab' Rcnh a{lenab kqrragk|
yl` tqohlk ngb ylhh oa batc{lab lg `a E[N{ ngb [[N{
:4;12
Necqg c oa batc{lab n _a{arza Ongm cj Lgbln (_OL, K__ _na 1! ?4>949
Onhngka Necqg nznlhnoha n `a ongm{ ;0;?229
Necqg nznlhnoha c oa ilzag n{ krabl c `a ocrrcyar{ l'a' 9:! ??1:2444
K6 Trcjl jrce nhh `a orngk`a{ (O%N, _qtaa{ lg krcra{
Ga trcjl jrce nhh `a orngk`a{#ongmlgi {arzlka kagra{ :;444 tar nkra#;44 {~' |nrb{ cj thc >444 {~' jaa cj jhn ngb
tnr `aracj' R`a{a k`nria{ kng oa ranlgab o| `a{a ongm{' R`a
a{lenab razagqa jrce `a{a rng{nklcg{ ylhh oa (nttrcp,
>444
Ga Trcjl jrce nhh `a orngk`a{#{arzlka kagra{ (K-B, _qtaa{ lg krcra{
Ga trcjl jrce nhh `a ongm orngk`a{#{arzlka kagra{ :2
8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession
31/42
Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh
RCT Rnp {|{ae
Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ;>
1''''''''''''''''''''''Kcetnrnlza {qb| cj Rnp razagqa{6 %%%%%%%R`a kcetnrnlza {qb| cjKagra{ np razagqa{ qgbar tra{ag {|{ae yl` ra{tak c ?444
qglcg Oqbia a{lena{ ngb `a trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae' Qgbar `a trctc{ab RCT Rnp{|{ae `a RCT Rnp ylhh oa 2!p;5>?! cj OA ?444 IBT 101:1:9 c ?4 qgbar {aklcg Ctarnlgi kc{ cj RCT Rnp {|{ae'
Qgbar tra{ag {|{ae `a np kchhaklcg aptagblqra cj kagrnh Apkl{a bq| {arzlka np ngb nhh
[na{ kceearklnh np kchhaklcg aptagblqra{ {qttc{ab c oa ecra `ng _{ >4444krcra{'
Kagrnh Apkl{a bq| cg knr{ conkkc trcbqk{ ngb {cj brlgm{ `n{ gc oaag nbbab c `a np
razagqa{ cj trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae'
R`a [na{ {`nra cj razagqa{ jrce `a trctc{ab RCT Rnp ylhh oa (_{ > :;4?< krcra{, ecra
`ng `a np razagqa{ qgbar `a tra{ag {|{ae' [aa Rnoha Gc6 2 ilzag oahcy'
Qgbar trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `a czarnhh [na{ np razagqa {`nra{ jrce Qglcg npa{ ngb
bqla{ (lgkhqblgi RCT Rnp {`nra, y