Repulse the Global Economic Recession

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  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    1/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >

    Gay akcgcelk {|{aeN kceecg np {|{ae jcr nhh gnlcg{

    O| ZLFN\N M_Q[@GN ZN_ENL ne {qiia{lgi gay ea`cb{ ecbah{ ngb lggcznlza ngb nhargnlza tchlkla{ lg

    `a nran{ cj ecganr| {|{ae oqbia tratnrnlcg ongmlgi jlgngka {|{ae tqohlk jlgngka

    ctlenh npnlcg np kchhaklcg np kcethlngka {qo{lbla{ecga| {qtth| ngb jl{knh tchlk| c

    `aht raecza kcrrqtlcg np azn{lcg akcgcelk raka{{lcg ohnkm ecga| jnma kqrragk|

    rng{ce{ rcooarla{ ngb {cklanh lga~qnhlla{' Lg e| ctlglcg `a trctc{ab gay akcgcelk

    {|{ae en| q{`ar lg iccb iczargngka >44! np kcethlngka ngb kcrrqtlcg jraa agzlrcgeag'

    L {qiia{{ n {lgiha np knhhab RCT Rnp (Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a Rnp, jcr oc` Kagra ngb [na{

    kceolgab lg thnka cj tra{ag eqhltha Lgblrak npa{ yl` bljjarag {hno rna{ cg bljjarag

    iccb{#kceecblla{#{arzlka{ ngb eqhltha Blrak npa{ yl` bljjarag {hno rna{ rahlazlgi :''Lgkcea Rnp

    ?'kcrtcrnlcg Rnp

    ;'kntlnh inlg{ Rnp

    2'yanh` Rnp1'[akqrlla{ rng{nklcg Rnp

    :'Kagrnh Apkl{a bq|

    9'Kq{ce{ bq|

    0'[arzlka Rnp

    >'hngb razagqa

    >?'Trcja{{lcgnh Rnp

    >;'[na Apkl{a

    >2'ckrcl

    >1'{qrk`nria{ ngb c`ar

    ka{{

    >:' Trctar| Rnp

    >9' Ilj Rnp

    >0' K[R

    >

    1-:-0-4->?->2->1->9->05

    Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a Rnp (RCT Rnp,

    [na{ ngb Kagra kceolgab,2!

    ?

    >-;-25

    Trcjl np (Rcnhh| nzclbnoha, jcr

    [na{ ngb Kagra kceolgab;4!

    ; Kcrtcrnlcg Rnp o| Kagra (ctlcgnh, ?4!

    2Kq{ce{ bq| o| Kagra (ctlcgnh,

    1 Apka{{ hngb np ([na{ ngb Kagra

    kceolgab, ctlcgnh

    : [na Apkl{a o| [na{

    R`ara ylhh oa cgh| cga engbncr| np knhhab RCT Rnp yl` {lgiha {hno rna(2!, jcr oc` Kagra

    ngb [na{ kceolgab lg `a trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae' R`a Trcjl np lg thnka cj tra{ag

    Lgkcea np ngb kntlnh inlg{ np ylhh oa nkkcqg on{lk ngb cnhh| nzclbnoha qghlma lgblzlbqnh

    on{lk ngb kcetqh{cr| lg `a tra{ag {|{ae' Jcr khanr qgbar{ngblgi than{a {aa noha gqeoar

    > ngb ? lg tnia gqeoar : ngb 9' Trcjl npeang{ l ylhh oa letc{ab cg tar{cg{ lgkcea{ (lj

    raenlgab ng|, anrgab#ic `rcqi` {nhnr| raeqgarnlcg oq{lga{{ lgbq{r| bcgnlcg{ ngb

    ilj{ njar hloarnhh| q{ab cg aptagblqra#{tagblgi znrlcq{ lgza{eag{ ilj{ ngb bcgnlcg{' Lg

    `a tra{ag {|{ae tar{cgnh Lgkcea np l{ hazlab cg lgkcea{ anrgab#ic `rcqi` {nhnr|

    raeqgarnlcg oq{lga{{ ilj{ bcgnlcg{ ngb {nha trckaab{ (`cyazar yl` {cea apaetlcg{,

    oajcra q{ab cg aptagblqra#{tagblgi bcgnlcg{ ngb znrlcq{ lgza{eag{' Qgbar trctc{ab

    RCT Rnp {|{ae `a Kcrtcrnlcg Rnp ngb Kq{ce bq|#Letcr bq| kng oa hazlab o| `a Kagrnh

    iczargeag n{ q{qnh c {nza {enhh {knha ngb bcea{lk lgbq{rla{ ra{taklzah|' [lelhnrh| `a

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

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    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ;

    apkl{a bq| cg hl~qcr ngb ylga{ kng oa hazlab o| `a [na iczargeag{ n{ qgbar `a tra{ag

    {|{ae c lg`lol `anz| kcg{qetlcg ngb nbblklcg'

    Blrak oagajl{ cj `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Qgbar {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `ara ylhh oa gc [nha{ Rnp (ZNR, Kagrnh Apkl{a Bq|

    (KAGZNR, [arzlka Rnp ngb c`ar Lgblrak Rnpa{'

    Oagajl{6

    >' R`arajcra nhh `a k`akm tc{{ nkrc{{ `a kcqgr| gaab c oa raeczab nhhcylgi jraa

    eczaeag cj lgbq{rlnh iccb{#kceecblla{ ngb nirlkqhqra trcbqka jrce ng|y`ara c

    ng|y`ara lg azar| RCT Rnp [|{ae lethaeagab kcqgr| `q{ oagajllgi krcra{ cj jnrear{

    rnbar{ lgbq{rlnhl{{ ngb ecra letcrngh| kcg{qear{'

    ?' R`a aglra rqkm cygar{ ylhh oagajl n{ `a| gaab gc tn| orloa{ n k`akm tc{{' R`a| gaab

    gc knrr| yn| olhh{ y`lha rng{tcrlgi kceecblla{ jrce cga thnka c ngc`ar thnka ng|y`ara

    lg `n RCT Rnp [|{ae lethaeagab kcqgr|'

    ;' R`a aglra jnrelgi kceeqgl| ylhh oagajl n{ `a| kng rng{tcr `alr nirlkqhqra trcbqka

    jrce ng|y`ara c ng|y`ara lg `a kcqgr| ngb {ahh `alr trcbqka n enrma trlka{'

    2' Rrnbar{ oq{lga{{eag kcgrnkcr{ {arzlka trczlbar{ {enhh {knha lgbq{rlnhl{{ ngb c`ar{

    gaab gc enlgnlg nkkcqg occm{ {ckm hl{{ {nha{ hl{{ ak' Gc nkkcqglgi ngb nqbllgi ylhh oa

    gaabab jcr rqgglgi `alr oq{lga{{#lgbq{r| jcr n{{a{{eag tqrtc{a'

    Qgbar tra{ag {|{ae `a bljjarag {hno rna{ cj [nha{ Rnp (ZNR, o| `a [na iczargeag{ ngb

    bljjarag {hno rna{ cj Kagrnh Apkl{a Bq| ngb [arzlka Rnp cg bljjarag kceecblla{ ngb

    {arzlka{ nra hanblgi c kcethapl| ngb neoliql| jcr oc` engqjnkqrar{ ngb rnbar{' R`l{ nh{c

    hanb{ c np azn{lcg ngb kcrrqtlcg' Qgbar trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `ara ylhh oa gc ZNR

    ({nha{ np, Kagrnh Apkl{a bq| (apkat cg knr{ conkkc trcbqk{ ngb {cj brlgm{, [arzlka np

    ngb c`ar Lgblrak npa{'

    Qgbar trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `ara ylhh oa gc Lgkcea Rnp ngb c`ar Blrak npa{'

    Oagajl{6

    [c qgbar {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae tactha y`c `nza npnoha lgkcea{ `rcqi` {nhnr|#

    raeqgarnlcg#trcja{{lcgnh lgkcea#bcgnlcg#ilj#{arzlka#oq{lga{{#lgbq{r| ylhh oagajl n{ `a|

    gaab gc tn| Lgkcea np#c`ar Blrak npa{ ngb {qoel Lgkcea Rnp raqrg{ nggqnhh|' :'< olhhlcg

    Tactha cj `a ycrhb ylhh oa qg{`nkmhab jrce npa{ np hny{ np rnlb{ np raqrg{ hlkag{a{

    tarel{ nkkcqglgi nqbllgi ngb kcrrqtlcg'

    ?'''''''''''Ea`cb cj Lethaeagnlcg cj RCT np {|{ae6 On{lk ecbah (Lgbln,

    Y`n l{ ra~qlrab jcr RCT np {|{ae c oa {qkka{{jqhh| lethaeagab l{ `a {rcgi tchllknh ylhhc oqlhb `a on{lk lgjrn{rqkqra cj trczlblgi ongmlgi {arzlka jcr azar| zlhhnia#{qoqro#cyg cr

    kchcg| `nzlgi n tctqhnlcg cj nrcqgb ?444 yl` `a `aht cj trlzna {akcr ongm{ ngb

    lg{lqlcg{'

    R`a Kagrnh iczargeag {`cqhb ilza n tarengag nkkcqg gqeoar (TNG, o| q{lgi olcearlk

    ea`cb ngb Lrl{ lbagljlknlcg c azar| kllvag nocza `a nia cj >1 |anr{ ngb enma engbncr|

    jcr azar| kllvag c `nza cgh| cga Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, yl` `a {nea TNG lg `a

    ongm#{arzlka kagra {lqnab n `a zlhhnia cr kchcg| y`ara `a hlza{ lg' R`a TNG ngb E[N

    gqeoar {`cqhb oa cga ngb {nea'

    Azar| kllvag ycqhb oa nhhcyab c ctag ng| gqeoar cj[qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ ([[N, n{ `a#{`a

    yl{`a{ c ctarna oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| lg n{ eng| ongm{ o| q{lgi (E[N, gqeoar'

    Qgbar trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `a nkkcqglgi ngb nqbllgi cj `a kcrtcrna cr tqohlk

    kcetngla{ ylhh oa engbncr| ngb kcetqh{cr| n{ lg `a tra{ag {|{ae jcr trcaklgi `a

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

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    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia 2

    lgara{{ cj `a lgza{cr{' Kcrtcrna cr tqohlk kcetngla{ ylhh oa ilzag Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg

    Gqeoar{ (KNG,'

    R`a Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, {`cqhb oa q{ab jcr oq|lgi cj {`nra{ hngb jcr nirlkqhqra cr

    lgbq{rlnh tqrtc{a thc{ jhn{ ichb fayahhar| za`lkha{ kceearklnh a{nohl{`eag{ cr ng|

    c`ar ecznoha cr leecznoha trctar|' R`a E[N {`nhh nh{c oa q{ab c rakalza cr tn| {nhnrla{

    trcja{{lcgnh jaa{ {arzlka jaa{ raeqgarnlcg{ bcgnlcg{ hcng{ ak' Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg l{

    nh{c gaabab c ia brlzlgi hlkagka tn{{tcr zclgi rli` {qo{lbla{ jqgb{ ecg`h| rnlcg

    tag{lcg{ raelngka{ ngb hcng{ (tar{cgnh nirlkqhqra oq{lga{{ abqknlcgnh ngb lgbq{rlnh,

    ngb jcr ialgi kcetag{nlcg#apirnln#rahlaj jqgb{ lg `a azag cj gnqrnh knhnella{ hlma

    k|khcga{ anr`~qnma{ jhccb{ jnelga{ nkklbag{ ak'

    R`a [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ ([[N, ngb nh{c `a Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ (E[N, kng oa q{ab jcr

    rqgglgi oq{lga{{ lgbq{r| {k`cch{ kchhaia{ `c{tlnh{ `cah{ ra{nqrng{ kcg{rqklcg

    {qblc{ {arzlka{ cr ng| c`ar |ta cj oq{lga{{' Fq{ hlma E[N `a [[N kng nh{c oa q{ab c

    rakalza cr tn| {nhnrla{ trcja{{lcgnh jaa{ {arzlka jaa{ raeqgarnlcg{ bcgnlcg{ hcng{ ak'R`a kcrtcrna cr tqohlk kcetngla{ ylhh `nza c ctarna nhh kn{` rng{nklcg{ `rcqi` `a

    Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar (KNG, cgh|'

    Njar a{nohl{`lgi {qjjlklag gqeoar cj ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ o| `a Iczargeag (jcr apnetha

    Lgbln, yl` `a `aht cj trlzna {akcr ongm{ ngb jlgngklnh lg{lqlcg{ nhh `a kllvag{ {`cqhb oa

    n{mab c batc{l nhh `a kqrragk| gca{ cj >444 144 >44 ngb 14 rqtaa{ apkat ?4 >4 1 ?

    rqtaa gca{#kclg{ nznlhnoha yl` `ae lg `a{a ongm{ lg `alr gayh| ilzag Enlg [nzlgi{

    Nkkcqg(E[N, cr [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ ([[N, yl`lg n {ltqhnab lea cj ;4 bn|{' Nhh tra{agh|

    rqg {nzlgi{ nkkcqg{ ngb kqrrag nkkcqg{ {`cqhb oa kcgzarab lg c [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{

    ([[N{, yl` `a {nea nkkcqg gqeoar{ ngb kng oa ctarnab jrce `a {nea ongm{' [lelhnrh|

    tactha y`c `nza ecga| lg `a jlpab batc{l{#JB_{ ylhh `nza c rng{jar nhh `alr ecga| jrce`a{a jlpab batc{l{#JB_{ c `alr ra{taklza gayh| ilzag E[N{ cr gayh| ctagab#kcgzarab

    [[N{ yl`lg `a {nea {ltqhnab tarlcb cj ;4 bn|{'

    Njar `l{ irnka tarlcb cj ;4 bn|{ `a Iczargeag (jcr apnetha Lgbln, gaab{ c baecgal{a

    nhh gca{ cj bagcelgnlcg >444 144 >44 ngb 14 rqtaa gca{ apkat ?4 >4 1 ngb ? rqtaa

    gca{' Jrce `ag cg `a RCT np {|{ae oakcea{ ctarnlcgnh' Azar| tar{cg {`nhh oa nhhcyab

    c yl`brny kn{` qt c enpleqe cj rqtaa{ 1444 tar ecg` jrce `l{#`ar anrglgi{ cr {nzlgi{

    nznlhnoha lg `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg cgh|' R`q{ n jnelh| cj yc kng nznlh kn{` cj >4444

    rqtaa{ enpleqe tar ecg` enlgh| c oq| bnlh| gaka{{lla{ hlma zaianoha{ elhm jrql{ abloha{

    irckarla{ ngb nhh c`ar {enhh cr hcy znhqab lae{' N tar{cg{ enpleqe kn{` yl`brnynh cj

    1444 tar ecg` jrce `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, `rcqi` ongm cr NRE ylhh oa lg _{?4 _{ >4 ngb _{' 1 gca{ cgh|' N tar{cg kng ia {cea tcrlcg cj `l{#`ar lgkcea{#anrglgi{

    rng{jarrab blrakh| lg c E[N{ cj `l{#`ar c`ar gcg anrglgi jnelh| eaeoar{ jrce {cqrka cj

    `l{#`ar lgkcea{#anrglgi{ {c `n `l{#`ar jnelh| kng yl`brny ecra kn{` (kqrragk|, tar ecg`'

    Azar| lgblzlbqnh{ lgkcea{ ngb {nzlgi{ ylhh oa lg baenarlnhl{ab jcre lg `l{#`ar E[N cr [[N{'

    C`ar `ng kn{` yl`brnynh{ cj enpleqe _{' 1444 tar ecg` jrce `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{

    Nkkcqg (E[N, gc tar{cg ylhh oa nhhcyab c yl`brny kn{` jrce `l{#`ar [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{

    ([[N,' Azar| lea n tar{cg oq|{ `li` znhqab lae{ iccb{ za`lkha{ hngb thc jhn ichb

    fayahhar| za`lkha{ cr ng| c`ar ecznoha cr leecznoha trctar| nznlh{ t`|{lknh cr lgahhakqnh

    {arzlka{ cr lg kn{a `a#{`a hagb{ bcgna{ ecga| c c`ar{ `ag `a#{`a gaab{ c rng{jar `a

    ra~qlrab ecga| jrce `l{#`ar [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg#Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg `rcqi` k`a~qabaol knrb cr ga ongmlgi (cghlga kn{` rng{jar{,' Oq{lga{{eag rnbar{ lgbq{rlnhl{{ ylhh `nza

    c enma `alr kn{` rng{jar{ jcr nhh rng{nklcg{ `rcqi` k`a~qa baol knrb cr ga ongmlgi

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

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    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia 1

    (cghlga kn{` rng{jar, jrce `alr [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{#Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg' [lelhnrh| n

    tar{cg{ {nhnr| cr raeqgarnlcg cr trcja{{lcgnh jaa ngb nhh `l{#`ar lgkcea{ jrce oq{lga{{ cr

    lgbq{r| ylhh oa krablab c `alr [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ cr Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg `rcqi`

    k`a~qa{ baol knrb cr ga ongmlgi (cghlga kn{` rng{jar{,' Nhh `raa nkkcqg{ gneah| KNG [[N

    ngb E[N kng oa qlhl{ab c rakalza tn| cr {cra lgkcea{#anrglgi{#{nzlgi{#bcgnlcg{#hcng{'

    Oq kn{` kng oa yl`brnyg cgh| jrce E[N (lj nznlhnoha, qt c enpleqe _{' 1444 tar ecg`

    tar tar{cg' R`a raenlglgi nznlhnoha ecga| (baenarlnhl{ab jcre, jrce E[N kng oa q{ab cr

    {tag `rcqi` baol knrb k`a~qa cr cghlga kn{` rng{jar'

    Jcr azar| rng{jar cj necqg n 2! Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a np (RCT Rnp, cj `n necqg ylhh oa

    nqcenlknhh| babqkab jrce `l{#`ar E[N#[[N nkkcqg' R`l{ 2! np necqg cg azar| kn{`

    rng{nklcg `rcqi` E[N#[[N#KNG jrce nhh ongm{ lg n tnrlkqhnr [na ylhh ic c `a kceolgab

    nkkcqg cj [na ngb Kagra lg `n tnrlkqhnr [na' ;4! cj `l{ necqg jrce azar| [na ngb

    Kagra kceolgab nkkcqg [NKKN, ylhh ic c Kagrnh iczargeag tcch nkkcqg' R`a raenlglgi

    94! ylhh oa ranlgab o| `a ra{taklza [na iczargeag{' R`l{ 2! Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a (RCTnp, kng oa rabqkab c ?! yl`lg 2 |anr{ jrce `a nbctlcg cj `l{ RCT np {|{ae o| rabqklgi

    4'14 on{l{ tclg{ tar |anr' R`l{ ylhh jqr`ar rabqka `a trlka{ cj `a kceecblla{ oagajllgi

    kcg{qear{' Nhh iczargeag nkkcqg{ ngb ongm{ ylhh `nza c oa apaetab jrce `l{ RCT np'

    Zlzlb apthngnlcg6 R`l{ 2! Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a Rnp (RCT Rnp, cg ank` kn{` rng{jar

    lrra{taklza cj `a ran{cg jcr {qk` rng{jar (tqrk`n{a ilj bcgnlcg {nhnr|#raeqgarnlcg cr

    ng| c`ar tqrtc{a, ctarnab `rcqi` Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ (E[N,# [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{

    ([[N,# Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar{ (KNG, ngb ctarnab o| ng| ongm cr {arzlka kagra ylhh oa

    nqcenlknhh| babqkab jrce `n nkkcqg ngb rng{jarrab c [na ngb Kagra{ kceolgab

    nkkcqg ([NKKN,' R`a RCT Rnp ylhh oa `a {nea ngb qgljcre `rcqi`cq `a kcqgr| cg nhh kn{`

    rng{jar{ enba `rcqi` cghlga#k`a~qa#BB jrce nhh nkkcqg{ cynrb{ tqrk`n{a ilj bcgnlcgngb {nhnr|#jaa#raeqgarnlcg' [c lg `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `a np on{a ylhh oa `a

    hnria{ c `nza `a elgleqe {hno rna ngb `a hcya{ np kcetcgag cg ank`

    kceecbl|#{arzlka' Tactha ylhh ia kceecblla{#{arzlka{ n `a hcya{ trlka{ `ng lg `a

    tra{ag {|{ae' Jqr`arecra `a cnh razagqa{ iagarnab jrce RCT Rnp jrce nhh kn{`

    rng{jar{ jrce nhh nkkcqg{ ylhh oa ecra `ng bcqoha `ng `a kceolgab razagqa{ cj nhh [na{

    ngb Kagra ic jrce tra{ag eqhltha npa{ yl` bljjarag {hno rna{' Yl` hlelab tntar

    kqrragk| ngb baenarlnhl{ab ecga| lg `a RCT np {|{ae azar| rng{nklcg ylhh oa

    rng{tnrag batlklgi `a nkqnh IBT cj `a kcqgr|' Lg hlarnh {ag{a azar| tqrk`n{a ilj

    bcgnlcg ngb nhh |ta{ cj tn|eag{ ylhh `nza c oa knrrlab `rcqi` cghlga kn{` rng{jar{ jrce

    cga nkkcqg c ngc`ar nkkcqg oaknq{a cj hlelab tntar kqrragk|' R`a cnh razagqa{ icjrce RCT Rnp ylhh oa nttrcplenah| a~qnh c ;p2 !( >?!, cj nkqnh znhqa cj `a IBT cj `n

    kcqgr| lg `a engqjnkqrar banhar ranlhar ngb kcg{qear k`nlg' N{ iccb{ kceecblla{

    {arzlka{ bcgnlcg{ t`|{lknh ngb lgahhakqnh ycm{ k`ngia `ngb{ lg `a engqjnkqrar banhar

    ranlhar ngb kcg{qear k`nlg baenarlnhl{ab ecga| ylhh oa rng{jarrab jrce cga nkkcqg c

    ngc`ar nkkcqg kcrra{tcgblgih|' R`q{ azar| kn{` rng{jar cynrb{ tqrk`n{a ilj bcgnlcg

    {nhnr|#raeqgarnlcg cr ng| c`ar tqrtc{a ylhh oa nkkcqgab ngb yl`lg `a {|{ae ahlelgnlgi

    qgbarircqgb#{`nbcy#qgratcrab#`lbbag rng{nklcg{ ctarnab o| t`|{lknh kqrragk| ic jrce

    ohnkm ecga| ngb jnma kqrragk| lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae' Lg `a tra{ag {|{ae `a

    tnrnhhah akcgce| oalgi rqg o| ohnkm ecga| ngb jnma kqrragk| l{ co{kqrlgi `a ranh IBT ngb

    `netarlgi cr hcyarlgi `a kchhaklcg cj razagqa{' R`a RCT Rnp {|{ae ylhh ahlelgna `a ohnkmecga| ngb jnma kqrragkla{ n cga ic ngb batlk `a apnk IBT cj `a kcqgr|' R`a c`ar {nhlag

    janqra cj `a RCT Rnp {|{ae l{ `a oaar akcgcelk engniaeag ngb nq{arl|' R`a

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    6/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia :

    lgblzlbqnh{ y`c rqg oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| ylhh oa rahlazab jrce neoliqcq{ np {rqkqra{

    tha`crn cj np hny{ ngb engbncr| {nha{ hl{{ {ckm hl{{ nkkcqglgi nqbllgi ngb np raqrg{'

    Lg nbbllcg c `a Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a (RCT, np n Trcjl Rnp (TR, cj ;4! ycqhb oa hazlab ngb

    nqcenlknhh| babqkab cgka n |anr cg `a elgleqe necqg rakcrbab lg `a jlgngklnh |anr cj

    Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, ngb ank` [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ([[N, lj ng| cj azar| kllvag' R`a

    jlgngklnh |anr cj `a E[N cj n tar{cg oailg{ n `a bna `a Iczargeag nhhc{ `le#`ar `a

    E[N' R`a jlgngklnh |anr cj `a [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ([[N, ylhh oailg n `a bna n tar{cg

    k`cc{a{ c ctag `l{#`ar [[N' R`l{ Trcjl Rnp (TR, l{ ng nkkcqg on{lk ngb l l{ cnhh| lrrahazng

    y`c cyg{ `n nkkcqg (E[N#[[N,' R`a Trcjl Rnp ;4! cj elgleqe onhngka necqg rakcrbab

    lg `a E[N ngb ank` [[N (lj ng|, cj azar| tar{cg ylhh oa nqcenlknhh| babqkab cg `a hn{

    bn| cj `a jlgngklnh |anr cj `n E[N ngb [[N (lj ng|, cj ank` tar{cg' R`a Trcjl np lg `a gap

    jlgngklnh |anr cj `n tnrlkqhnr E[N#[[N ylhh oa hazlab cg `a elgleqe onhngka rakcrbab cj

    `n |anr elgq{ `a trazlcq{ |anr{ npab necqg cj `n tnrlkqhnr E[N#[[N ligcrlgi `a

    enpleqe necqg `cyazar `qia en| oa' R`q{ `a babqkab Trcjl np ;4! cj elgleqeonhngka necqg rakcrbab lg `a E[N ngb ank` [[N (lj ng|, cj azar| tar{cg lg n tnrlkqhnr

    [na ylhh oa rng{jarrab c `n [na ngb kagra{ kceolgab nkkcqg ([NKKN,' R`a kceolgab

    npa{ cj RCT Rnp ngb Trcjl np kchhakab lg azar| [na ngb Kagra{ kceolgab nkkcqg

    ([NKKN, ylhh `nza c oa {`nrab oayaag `n tnrlkqhnr [na ngb Kagra lg `a rnlc cj `n

    tnrlkqhnr [na ialgi 94! ngb Kagra ;4!' @agka `a cnhh| ctlcgnh ngb nzclbnoha Trcjl

    Rnp ylhh ag{qra `n `a ecga| ylhh oa kcg{ngh| tqetab onkm lgc {|{ae maatlgi `a

    akcgcelk ircy` n `anh`| rna' Lg `a tra{ag {|{ae `a `qia ohnkm ecga| iagarnab o|

    `lbbag#{`nbcy nkkcqg{ kceolgab yl` `qia jnma kqrragk| l{ thn|lgi `nzck yl` cqr

    akcgce|' Oa{lba{ `a{a yc npa{ gneah| RCT Rnp ngb Trcjl np y`lk` kng oa nzclbnoha `a

    Kagrnh Iczargeag {`nhh letc{a `a kq{ce{ bq| (letcr bq|, ngb Kcrtcrnlcg np n{ lg `aapl{lgi {|{ae' Apkat `a{a jcqr npa{ `a RCT Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ raecznh cj nhh c`ar

    Blrak npa{ Lgblrak npa{ ngb znrlcq{ {qrk`nria{ hazlab lg `a tra{ag {|{ae'

    R`a jchhcylgi yc noha{ khanrh| lhhq{rna `cy cnhh| nzclbnoha Trcjl Rnp l{ babqkab jrce

    [[N ngb E[N cj n tar{cg cg elgleqe onhngka necqg{ rakcrbab lg ank` jlgngklnh |anr

    apkhqblgi `a trazlcq{ cr hn{ npab necqg'

    Apnetha>6 L {`cy{ `cy `a Trcjl np cg elgleqe onhngka necqg{ rakcrbab ank` |anr

    apkhqblgi `a trazlcq{ cr hn{ npab necqg ylhh oa babqkab jrce ank` [qo [nzlgi{ nkkcqg

    ([[N, ctarnab o| n ongm#{arzlka kagra lrra{taklza cj `a jnk `n y`c `chb{ `n nkkcqg'

    \anr

    Elgleqe

    onhngka cj`a |anr

    Enpleqe

    Onhngka cj`a |anr

    Trcjl Rnp (TR, cg `a Elg'

    Ne' R`a hn{ npab necqg

    Ga Trcjl Rnp

    (TR,Babqkab

    ?449%40 >4444 1444444 ;4! cj >4444 ;444'44

    ?440%4< 24444 9444444 ;4! cj (24444%>4444, 4%>> ?4444 ?4444444 % %

    ?4>>%>? >14444 144444 ;4! cj (>14444%0444'44

    ?4>?%>; >14444 >444444 % %

    ?4>;%>2 ?44444 0444444 ;4! cj (?44444%>14444, >1444'44

    ?4>2%>1 >4444444 ?4444444 ;4! cj (>4444444%?44444, ?

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    7/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia 9

    Apnetha6 ? % L {`cy{ `cy `a Trcjl np cg elgleqe onhngka necqg{ rakcrbab lg ank`

    jlgngklnh |anr apkhqblgi `a trazlcq{ cr hn{ npab necqg ylhh oa babqkab jrce ank` Enlg

    [nzlgi{ nkkcqg (E[N, ctarnab o| n ongm#{arzlka kagra lrra{taklza cj `a jnk `n y`c

    `chb{ `n nkkcqg'

    \anr

    Elgleqe

    onhngka cj

    `a |anr

    Enpleqe

    Onhngka cj `a

    |anr

    Trcjl Rnp (TR, cg `a Elg'

    Ne' R`a hn{ npab necqg

    Ga Trcjl Rnp

    (TR,Babqkab

    ?449%40 ?4%>> ?44444 044444 % %

    ?4>>%>? 214444 144444 ;4! cj (214444%244444, >1444'44

    ?4>?%>; 214444 >444444 % %

    ?4>;%>2 :44444 0444444 ;4! cj (:44444%214444, 21444'44

    Gcy l l{ khanrh| qgbar{ccb `n `a Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a (RCT, Rnp ylhh oa {nea cg kn{`

    rng{jar{ lg nhh `raa nkkcqg{ gneah| Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ([[N,

    ngb Kcrtcrnlcg Nkkcqg Gqeoar (KNG,'R`a Trcjl Rnp l{ nh{c {nea lg Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg

    ngb [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg apkat `a elgleqe {crnia onhngka lg Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N,'

    R`a Trcjl Rnp cg elgleqe onhngka lg Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ylhh oa hazlab jrce _{' ; hnm`{

    cgynrb{' R`a Trcjl Rnp cg elgleqe onhngka lg [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg {nr{ jrce varc

    cgynrb{' Lg `a kn{a cj Kcrtcrnlcg Nkkcqg Gqeoar (KNG, `a Trcjl Rnp ylhh `nza c oa

    hazlab lg `a jcre cjKcrtcrnlcg Rnp n{ lg `a apl{lgi {|{ae'

    Than{a gca `n ank` tar{cg ylhh `nza cgh| cga tarengag ngb hlja lea Enlg [nzlgi{

    Nkkcqg(E[N, oq kng `nza n{ eng| [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ([[N, n{ `a#{`a kng yl{`' [lelhnrh|

    `a Trcjl Rnp ylhh oa cg nkkcqg on{lk ngb cnhh| nzclbnoha lg{anb cj lgblzlbqnh on{lk ngb

    kcetqh{cr| n{ lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae' Than{a nh{c gca `n `a Trcjl Rnp cg

    elgleqe onhngka rakcrbab lg ank` |anr lg Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ylhh oa hazlab jrce _{' ;

    44444 cgynrb{' Lg `a tra{ag {|{ae `a Lgkcea Rnp nkkcqglgi nqbllgi ngb np raqrg{

    nra kcetqh{cr|' [c tar{cg{ y`c `nza npnoha lgkcea{ `rcqi` {nhnr| cr oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| cr

    raeqgarnlcg gaab c {qoel Lgkcea Rnp raqrg{ nggqnhh|' Oq RCT Rnp {|{ae{ Trcjl np

    eang{ l ylhh oa letc{ab cg tar{cg{ lgkcea{ ic `rcqi` {nhnr| raeqgarnlcg oq{lga{{

    lgbq{r| bcgnlcg{ ngb ilj{ njar hloarnhh| q{ab cr {tag cg aptagblqra#{tagblgi znrlcq{

    lgza{eag{ ilj{ ngb bcgnlcg{' Trcjl np cj ;4! cg elgleqe onhngka rakcrbab lg `ajlgngklnh |anr cj ank` [qo [nzlgi{ nkkcqg ([[N, cr Enlg [nzlgi{nkkcqg (lrra{taklza cj `a

    `chbar cj `n nkkcqg, ctarnab o| ng| ongm#{arzlka kagra ylhh oa babqkab cg `a hn{ bn| cj

    `a jlgngklnh |anr cj `n tnrlkqhnr [[N cr E[Nngb ylhh oa rng{jarrab c [na ngb Kagra{

    kceolgab nkkcqg ([NKKN,' R`a Trcjl np lg `a gap jlgngklnh |anr cj `n tnrlkqhnr E[N#[[N

    ylhh oa hazlab cg `a elgleqe onhngka rakcrbab cj `n |anr elgq{`a trazlcq{ |anr{ npab

    necqg cj `n tnrlkqhnr E[N#[[N ligcrlgi `a enpleqe necqg `cyazar `qia en| oa'

    Than{a qgbar{ngb `n elgleqe onhngka rakcrbab lg `a jlgngklnh |anr cj ank` [qo [nzlgi{

    nkkcqg ([[N, cr Enlg [nzlgi{ nkkcqg eang{ `a ecga| qgq{ab cr {nignab jcr ecra `ng

    cga |anr' Lg `a gap jlgngklnh |anr cj `a E[N cr [[N `a Trcjl Rnp ylhh oa hazlab cg `a

    nbbllcgnh qgq{ab cr {nignab ecga| czar `a trazlcq{ npab necqg' R`n eang{ `ara ylhhoa gc rakqrrlgi trcjl np cg qgq{ab cr {crab ecga|' Cgka npab `a qgq{ab ecga| kng oa

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    8/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia 0

    {tag ngb rak`nriab#ra{crab yl`cq oalgi ra npab jcr `a aglra hlja cj `n nkkcqg' Lg `a

    kn{a cj kntlnh inlg{ jrce n {nha cj ng| trctar| cr n{{a n tar{cg ylhh `nza n elgleqe cj ;:2

    bn|{ ngb enpleqe cj > |anr ngb ;:2 bn|{ tarlcb c nzclb Trcjl Rnp jrce {nha trckaab{

    (kntlnh inlg{, c ralgza{' [lelhnrh| 2! Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a np (RCT Rnp, lg hlaq cj tra{ag nhh

    lgblrak npa{ ngb znrlcq{ {qrk`nria{ ylhh oa babqkab jrce azar| ecga| rng{jar lg ank` [qo

    [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg cr Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg lrra{taklza cj `a jnk `n y`cazar `chb{ `n

    nkkcqg ngb cg y`n tqrtc{a `a necqg `n{ oaag rng{jarrab (tqrk`n{a ilj bcgnlcg

    {nhnr|#raeqgarnlcg cr ng| c`ar tqrtc{a, ctarnab o| ng| ongm cr {arzlka kagra ngb

    rng{jarrab c [na ngb Kagra{ kceolgab nkkcqg [NKKN,' R`q{ nhh lgblzlbqnh{ y`c anrg

    `rcqi` {nhnrla{ raeqgarnlcg{ ilj{ ngb bcgnlcg{ ylhh gaab gc tn| lgkcea np ngb

    {qoel lgkcea np raqrg{ nggqnhh|' R`q{ tactha ylhh oa rahlazab jrce `a kcoyao cj tra{ag

    neoliqcq{ ngb kcethap np {rqkqra{ tha`crn cj np hny{ engbncr| ngb kqeoar{cea

    nkkcqglgi nqbllgi ngb np raqrg{ ngb kcg{a~qag ~qnielra cj nhh np rahnab kn{a{'

    @cy c nzclb Trcjl np6 %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

    Azar| tar{cg ylhh `nza `a jchhcylgi ctlcg{ c nzclb Trcjl Rnp cj ;4! oalgi babqkab jrce

    `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ngb [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{'

    @a#{`a kng oq| hngb{ qt c ?4 nkra{ cj hngb qghlelab gqeoar cj jhn{ kceearklnh

    a{nohl{`eag{ ngb c`ar trctarla{ n{ `a#{`a yl{`a{' R`l{ agnoha{ ranh a{na {akcr ircy{ n

    jn{ar rna ngb `cq{a rag{ ylhh kcea bcyg {qo{nglnhh| oagajllgi jnelhla{ y`c `nza gc cyg

    `cq{a{'

    @a#{`a kng oq| qghlelab gqeoar cj {`nra{ n{ `a#{`a yl{`a{ 'Azag `cqi` `a#{`a hcc{a{ n 2!

    cj {`nra znhqa n{ RCT Rnp y`lha rng{jarrlgi kn{` jrce `l{#`ar nkkcqg {lhh `a#{`a ia{

    oagajlab jrce ;4! Trcjl Rnp oalgi babqkab' [c tactha ylhh hccm cq jcr `a kcetngla{ y`lk`bakhnra blzlbagb{ azar| |anr' R`a| nh{c {qb| knrajqhh| `a jqgbneagnh{ cj `a kcetng| hlma

    `a occm znhqa AT[ T#A rnlc trcjl{ blzlbagb{ ra{arza{ hlnolhlla{ ak' oajcra oq|lgi {`nra{'

    Lg `l{ {kagnrlc `a {ckm enrma{ ylhh ircy n {anb| rna ngb `ara ylhh oa gc enrma krn{`a{

    gcy ngb `ag n{ ya nra aptarlagklgi qgbar tra{ag {|{ae'

    @a#{`a kng hagb ecga| c c`ar{ y`c nra lg gaab' Azag `cqi` a#{`a hcc{a{ 2! cj ecga| n{

    RCT Rnp y`lha rng{jarrlgi kn{` `a#{`a ia{ oagajlab o| ialgi 2! lgara{ cg `a hcng

    necqg azar |anr' Lg `a trcka{{ `a hcngar{ (hcng nmar{, ylhh ia hcng{ n k`antar rna y`ag

    kcetnrab c tra{ag {|{ae'

    @a#{`a kng {aqt lgbq{rla{ {nr oq{lga{{a{ c nzclb Trcjl np' [c lg `l{ trcka{{ `qia

    aethc|eag cttcrqglla{ ylhh oa iagarnab' [c lg `a ag{qlgi kcetallcg( kceecblla{

    trlka{ ylhh oakcea eqk` k`antar'

    @a#{`a kng rng{jar kn{` jrce `l{#`ar E[N#[[N{ c ngc`ar cga cj `l{#`ar [qo [nzlgi{

    Nkkcqg{ cr c `l{ ylja{#`ar `q{ongb{ [[N{ c nzclb Trcjl np' @a#{`a kng bcgna `qia

    necqg{ c cringl{nlcg{#k`nrlnoha rq{{ lj `a#{`a yl{`a{' Lg `l{ trcka{{ `a#{`a ylhh hc{a 2!

    cj `n rng{jarrab kn{` lg `a jcre cjRct Rnp'

    @a#{`a kng lgza{ lg znrlcq{ Hlja Lg{qrngka {k`aea{' N `a agb cj `a enqrl| tarlcb `a| ylhh

    ia cgh| `a nkqnh cnh traelqe necqg tnlb yl`cq ng| lgara{' Oq lg kn{a cj traenqra

    ban` cr `c{tlnhl{nlcg bqa c lhhga{{ jqhh lg{qrab necqg ylhh oa tnlb n{ lg `a tra{ag {|{ae'

    Zlzlb apthngnlcg6 % R`a RCT Rnp {|{ae{ np kchhaklcg{ RCT Rnp ngb Trcjl np, jcr

    Iczargeag ngb np tn|eag{#np kcethlngka o| nhh kllvag{ ylhh oa cnhh| nqcenlk ngb

    lgzchqgnr| fq{ hlma ra{tlrncr| {|{ae lg `qeng ocb|' Azar| nkkcqg (E[N#[[N#KNG, l{ ng

    lgzchqgnr| nptn|lgi nkkcqg' Kllvag{ gaab gc enlgnlg {atnrna nkkcqg occm{ ngb

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    9/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia 1' L bca{g enar eqk` y`n `a jlgngklnh |anr cj ank` nkkcqg l{' R`a

    gqeoar cj nkkcqg{ `n oailg cr agb ank` bn| l{ nttrcplenah| a~qnh c `a cnh gqeoar cj

    nkkcqg{ ctarnab o| nhh ongm{ lg `n kcqgr| blzlbab o| ;:1' R`a kceecg jlgngklnh |anr jcr

    `a y`cha gnlcg ylhh oakcea lrrahazng qgletcrng ngb rabqgbng lg `a RCT Rnp {|{ae'

    Ank` lgblzlbqnh kng `nza n k`c{ag jlgngklnh |anr jcr `l{ azar| [[N nkkcqg'Lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae ec{ cj `a ecga| lg klrkqhnlcg l{ lg t`|{lknh jcre

    (olhh{#gca{,' R`ara nra ratcrab c oa thag| cj kn{a{ cj hcclgi{ rcooarla{ `celklba{

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    10/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >4

    apcrlcg{ rng{ce{ ngb orloa{ nkrc{{ `a ycrhb lg nhec{ nhh gnlcg{ oaknq{a cj `l{ `qia

    ecga| lg t`|{lknh jcre' R`l{ t`|{lknh ecga| lg `qia necqg{ l{ oalgi rng{jarrab jrce cga

    `ngb c c`ar ahqblgi nhh np ga{ lg rng{nklcg{ cj kceecblla{ cr iccb{' R`a qgnkkcqgab

    IBT l{ {nlb c oa cc `anz| ngb znrla{ jrce kcqgr| c kcqgr| batagblgi qtcg `a kcrrqtlcg

    hazah `n apl{{ lg `n kcqgr|' Lg nbbllcg c `l{ ohnkm ecga| `ara nra nh{c `qia necqg{ cj

    jnma kqrragk| `n `n{ kcgnelgnab `a iagqlga kqrragk|' R`a kceolgab ajjak cj `a ohnkm

    ecga| ngb jnma kqrragk| l{ thn|lgi `nzck yl` akcgcela{ cj eng| kcqgrla{' Gcy ecga| l{

    oalgi ranab n{ ng lgkcea iagarnlgi n{{a ngb yanh` lg{anb cj q{lgi l n{ n eablqe lg

    apk`ngia cj kceecblla{ iccb{ {arzlka{ ngb {`nra{ t`|{lknh ngb lgahhakqnh ycrm{' R`a

    `qia nkkqeqhnlcg cj ecga| lg jay tckma{ lg `a jcre cj ohnkm ecga| l{ enmlgi `a k|khlk

    klrkqhnlcg cj ecga| lg `a akcgcelk {|{ae c oa arrnlk ({cea lea{ ecra k|kha{ tar |anr

    ngb {cea lea{ ha{{ k|kha{ tar |anr yl` {nignlcg#gcg q{nia cj ecga| knq{lgi akcgcelk

    raka{{lcg n lea{' R`a eqhlthlar ajjak cg `a ecga| lg ongmlgi jlgngka {|{ae l{ bakran{lgi

    `a ranh jnka znhqa cj `a t`|{lknh kqrragk|' Nh`cqi` `a lgblzlbqnh{ anrglgi{ nra lgkran{lgiazar| |anr `a tqrk`n{a znhqa cj `a kqrragk| l{ bakran{lgi ngb rank`ab nhec{ >#>4

    `cj l{

    jnka znhqa' RCT Rnp {|{ae rla{ c jlp `l{ trcohae o| ~qnhlnlza ngb ~qnglnlza {qtth| cj

    ecga| lg akcgcelk {|{ae {c `n `a tqrk`n{a znhqa cj t`|{lknh kqrragk| n l{ jnka znhqa

    raenlg{ `li` ngb {nea jcr hcgiar tarlcb cj lea' R`a trlka{ cj kceecblla{ cr {arzlka{ ylhh

    raenlg {nea cr azag bakran{a ag`ngklgi `a tqrk`n{lgi kntnkl| cj tactha azar| |anr yl`

    lgkran{a lg anrglgi{ (tar kntln lgkcea, ank` |anr'

    (Than{a {aa tnia ecga| ecga| {qtth| hcng{ ranh ecga| ngb krabl ecga| jrce tnia >0 c

    tnia ?4,

    Lg `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae ec{ cj `a ecga| (

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    11/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >>

    (t`|{lknh#lgahhakqnh, rng{tcr tcyar (jqah#ahakrlkl|, ngb {`ahj hlja' R`a jlgnh ra{qh cj RCT

    Rnp {|{ae ylhh oa `a nk`lazaeag cj tarjak a~qlhlorlqe oayaag baengb ngb {qtth|=

    bazahcteag ngb a~qnhl|= ircy` ngb lgjhnlcg= ranh ecga| ngb krabl ecga| (hcngab ecga|,=

    razagqa{ ngb aptagblqra' R`a hct{lbab bazahcteag necgi tactha ngb railcg{ `n l{ oalgi

    ylga{{ab lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae ylhh kan{a c apl{' R`a gnqrnh ra{cqrka ngb yanh`

    cj n kcqgr| kng oa a~qnhh| bl{rloqab necgi `a tactha'

    Qgbar tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae `ara nra cgh| n jay thn|ar{ ecra rajaraa{ (hlkag{a

    tarel k`akm tc{{ yn| olhh{ nqbllgi n{{a{{eag ngb lg{taklcg, ngb ecra {takncr{'

    R`a trctc{ab Rct np {|{ae ylhh hanza {tnka jcr ecra thn|ar{ n jay rajaraa{ (tchhqlcg

    kcgrch ocnrb cgh|, ngb n jay {takncr{' R`a enrma{ ylhh oakcea {c ylba ctag yl` gc

    tarel{ cr hlkagka{ ra~qlrab apkat tchhqlcg kcgrch ocnrb{ tarel{{lcg, c rqg ng| oq{lga{{

    cr lgbq{r| apkat `c{a y`ara no{chqa gaka{{l| l{ ra~qlrab jcr tarel{{lcg{ jrce

    Iczargeag{ jcr elglgi cra{ elgarnh{ {aab{ ta{lklba{ apthc{lza{ ak' R`q{ azar|cga kng

    agar lgc `a enrma ngb {nr `l{#`ar cyg oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| yl`cq ng| {`nkmha{`arao| rabqklgi qgaethc|eag {qo{nglnhh|' N `a {nea lea yl` {c eng| thn|ar{ lg `a

    enrma ngb `li` kcetallcg `a trlka{ cj iccb{#{arzlka{ ylhh oakcea k`antar oagajllgi

    kcg{qear{' R`l{ lgznrlnoh| lgkran{a{ kcg{qetlcg hanblgi c ecra trcbqklcg ngb ircy`

    rna'

    R`a on{lk kcgkat cj `a RCT Rnp {|{ae l{ `n cgh| {lgiha np lg `a thnka cj tra{ag

    eqhltha npa{ ylhh oa tnlb o| `a tactha cg kceecblla{#{arzlka{ engqjnkqrab yl`lg `a

    kcqgr| ntnr jrce `a kq{ce{ bq| y`lk` l{ letc{ab cgh| c {nza bcea{lk lgbq{r| cr

    oq{lga{{' R`a kq{ce{ bq| kng oa raeczab cg karnlg iccb{ hlma kaeag ngb {aah n{ ngb

    y`ag gaka{{nr| c k`akm `a fnkmab qt trlka{ knq{ab o| knrah necgi `a{a kcetngla{ ngb

    nh{c cg nirlkqhqra trcbqka y`ag {qjjlklag jccb irnlg trcbqklcg l{ gc nznlhnoha jcrkcg{qetlcg cr trckqraeag cynrb{ a{{aglnh oqjjar {ckm oaknq{a cj brcqi` cr c`ar

    gnqrnh knhnella{' [c `a nggqnh oqbia tra{agnlcg lj gaka{{nr| ylhh oa enlgh| qlhl{ab c

    bl{rloqa ngb nhhckna razagqa{ c znrlcq{ {akcr{ batnreag{ ngb yahjnra {k`aea{

    lg{anb cj jckq{{lgi cg npnlcg np kchhaklcg ngb agjcrkaeag cg np kcethlngka'

    Lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae `a oqbia tratnrnlcg l{ en{{lza

    eqhl {niab lea kcg{qelgi ngb hnocrlcq{ trcka{{' R`ara nra `cq{ngb{ cj bljjarag `li` cr

    zar| hcy znhqab iccb{ cr {arzlka{ c oa {airainab lgc bljjarag ircqt{ ngb npab o| oc`

    Kagra ngb [na{ yl` bljjarag npa{ n `raa cr ecra {hno rna{ ngb n{ lj `a{a nra gc

    agcqi` `ara nra nbbllcgnh {qrk`nria{ cr ka{{a{ cg {ahakab iccb{' R`a{a np {rqkqra{ ngb

    {hno rna{ cg bljjarag iccb{ maat k`ngilgi azar| |anr' Yl` `a{a kcethlknab np {rqkqra{ngb azar k`ngilgi {hno rna{ azar| |anr `a np kcethlngka o| lgblzlbqnh engqjnkqrar{

    banhar{ ngb ranlhar{ `n{ oaag bljjlkqh kqeoar{cea ngb oc`ar{cea' Rnpa{ nra oalgi

    kchhakab o| bljjarag np kchhaklcg batnreag{ on{ab cg `a nkkcqg{ enlgnlgab o|

    lgblzlbqnh{ y`c rqg lgbq{r| cr oq{lga{{' R`ara l{ thag| cj rcce jcr qgbar{naeag cj

    trcbqklcg ngb {nha{ np azn{lcg ngb kcg{a~qag o|%trcbqk cj ohnkm ecga|' Oq lg `a

    {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `ara ylhh oa {lgiha np knhhab RCT (Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a, np yl`

    jlpab#{nlcgnr| {hno rna (2!, cg nhh ecga| rng{jar{ jrce cga nkkcqg c ngc`ar nkkcqg

    `rcqi` k`a~qa baol knrb ngb cghlga rng{jar#ga ongmlgi lg `a tqrk`n{a k`nlg cj

    kcg{qear{ ranlhar{ ngb engqjnkqrar{' R`a Rrng{jar Cr Tqrk`n{a RCT Rnp (2!, ylhh oa

    babqkab nqcenlknhh| o| kcetqar {|{ae{ cj ongm{ cg nhh ecga| rng{jar{ jrce cgankkcqg c ngc`ar nkkcqg lrra{taklza cj `a jnk `n jcr y`n tqrtc{a

    (tqrk`n{a#bcgnlcg#{nhnrla{#hcng{, ngb o| y`ce `a{a ecga| rng{jar{ `nza oaag enba'

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    12/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >?

    R`a np ylhh oa cgh| cg ecga| rng{jar{ jcre cga nkkcqg c ngc`ar rn`ar `ng cg

    `a znhqa cj iccb#kceecblla{ ngb {arzlka{ yl` azar k`ngilgi {hno rna{ azar| |anr n oqbia

    lea lg `a tra{ag npnlcg {|{ae' [c `a razagqa kchhaklcg{ jcr oc` Kagra ngb [nab

    Iczargeag{ ylhh oa lg{ng nqcenlk trcet ngb kcglgqcq{ trcka{{ `rcqi`cq `a |anr

    yl` gc rcce jcr np azn{lcg' R`ara ylhh oa no{chqah| gc np kchhaklcg aptagblqra jcr `a

    Iczargeag ngb np kcethlngka kc{ jcr kllvag{' R`a tqrtc{a cj oqbia tratnrnlcg ylhh oa

    cgh| `a nhhcknlcg cj razagqa{ ic jrce RCT Rnp ngb Trcjl Rnp c znrlcq{ {akcr{

    batnreag{ cr elgl{rla{' Rnpnlcg np kchhaklcg np agjcrkaeag np kcethlngka

    nhhcknlcg cj razagqa{ c znrlcq{ elgl{rla{ cr batnreag{ ngb ecga| {qtth| lgc `a

    akcgce| nra qgljlab lg `l{ qgl~qa RCT Rnp {|{ae' [c `a oqbia tra{agnlcg ylhh oakcea

    {letha {ecc` ngb lea {nzlgi' Cr azag `ara ylhh oa gc gaab jcr oqbia tra{agnlcg ank`

    |anr' R`a |anrh| oqbia tra{agnlcg kng oa {chah| qlhl{ab jcr tarkagnia yl{a nhhcknlcg ngb

    k`nggahhlgi cj `c{a nqcenlknhh| kchhakab RCT Rnp ngb Trcjl Rnp razagqa{ o| ongm{ c

    znrlcq{ {akcr{ hlma `cq{lgi `anh` knra abqknlcg brlgmlgi ynar rng{tcr lrrlinlcgnirlkqhqra agzlrcgeag {nglnlcg lgjrn{rqkqra trcfak{ rqrnh bazahcteag bajagka ngb

    lgargnh tchlklgi' R`a tarkagnia cj jqgb{ nhhcknab c znrlcq{ elgl{rla{ batnreag{ cr

    {akcr{ kng oa k`ngiab azar| |anr batagblgi qtcg `a gaab gaka{{l| ngb qriagk| nk~qlrab

    o| `ae' R`a Iczargeag {rqkqra ngb enk`lgar| kng oa ra{rqkqrab bcyg{lvab ngb jlga

    qgab gc cgh| c rabqka yn{ajqh aptagblqra oq nh{c c knar c `a on{lk gaab{ cj tactha

    kcgkarglgi `cq{lgi `anh` knra abqknlcg {nglnlcg ngb brlgmlgi ynar' Rc {n| orlajh| `a

    Iczargeag{ aglra kcgkagrnlcg ngb ct ec{ trlcrl| ylhh {`lj jrce npnlcg( np kchhaklcg

    ngb agjcrkaeag c lethaeagnlcg cj yahjnra {k`aea{ ngb bazahcteag cj lgjrn{rqkqra

    trcfak{'

    Lg `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `a ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ ylhh oakcea zlrqnhh| `algareablnrla{ oayaag tactha ngb `a Iczargeag jcr nhh np kchhaklcg{ ngb rabl{rloqlcg cj

    jqgb{#razagqa{ jrce `a Iczargeag c tactha y`c {`cqhb oa `a gnqrnh ahliloha ngb

    haillena rakltlag{ y`lha ahlelgnlgi y`nha{ tnrn{la{ ngb hleta{' Y`agazar n tar{cg

    elirna{ cr ecza{ c n gay thnka `l{ chb nbbra{{ lg Enlg [nzlgi Nkkcqg (E[N, {`cqhb oa

    k`ngiab yl` `a gay nbbra{{ c ia ecg`h| rnlcg( {qo{lbla{( kcetag{nlcg#apirnln#rahlaj

    jqgb{ lg `a azag cj gnqrnh knhnella{ hlma anr`~qnma k|khcga{ jhccb{ jnelga brcqi` ak'

    lg `n tnrlkqhnr thnka ngb nh{c c ia zclgi rli` lg `n tnrlkqhnr kcg{lqagk|' Lg `a

    {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `a Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, cj ank` tar{cg {`nhh oa qlhl{ab n{

    `a ba%en nkkcqg cj `n tar{cg jcr `chblgi oc` ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ hlma

    {`nra{ hngb{ thc{ jhn{ ichb {lhzar fayahhar| crgneag{ zar| `li` znhqab nrlkha{ eccrk|kha{ knr{ c`ar za`lkha{ ngb nhh c`ar trctarla{#n{{a{' Y`lha tqrk`n{lgi cr {ahhlgi `a

    rng{jar cj cygar{`lt rli`{ cj `a{a n{{a{#trctarla{ jrce cga tar{cg c ngc`ar tar{cg {`nhh

    oa enba jrce cga tar{cg{ E[N c ngc`ar tar{cg{ E[N `rcqi` ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ lg n

    blilnh#ahakrcglk jcre'

    Q{nia cj E[N{ [[N{ ngb KNG{6%Lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae n tar{cg{ cr n kcetng|{ ecga|( ecznoha cr leecznoha

    trctarla{(hlma za`lkha{ thc{ jhn{ `cq{a{ jnkcrla{ kceearklnh a{nohl{`eag{ hngb{ ak',

    {`nra{ jnelh| raa lg{qrngka tchlkla{ ngb nhh c`ar n{{a{ nra rakcrbab engniab ngb `ngbhab

    o| bljjarag batnreag{ niagkla{ cr lg{lqlcg{' Oq lg `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae ecga|

    ecznoha cr leecznoha trctarla{ (hlma za`lkha{ thc{ jhn{ `cq{a{ kceearklnha{nohl{`eag{ hngb{ ak', {`nra{ jnelh| raa lg{qrngka tchlkla{ ngb nhh c`ar n{{a{ nra

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    13/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >;

    rakcrbab engniab ngb `ngbhab lg n {lgiha nkkcqg knhhab Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, yl`

    jlza jchbar{ lg kn{a cj lgblzlbqnh{ ngb lg Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar{ (KNG, yl` {azag jchbar{

    lg kn{a cj kcetngla{ y`lk` l{{qab {`nra{ jcr tqohlk' R`a{a nkkcqg{ E[N{( [[N{ ngb KNG{

    ylhh oa enlgnlgab ngb ctarnab o| ongm{ rathnklgi bljjarag batnreag{ np kchhaklcg ngb

    np agjcrkaeag ocnrb{ niagkla{ cr lg{lqlcg{ cj `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae'

    R`q{ tactha{ ecga|( {`nra{( nhh ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ ylhh oa lg cgh| cga

    nkkcqg (E[N, yl` bljjarag jchbar{ ctarnab o| ongm{' [c ecga| {`nra{ ngb nhh c`ar

    ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ kng oa {crab enlgnlgab ngb q{ab jrce `l{ {lgiha

    nkkcqg knhhab Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, yl` jlza jchbar{ lg kn{a cj lgblzlbqnh{ ngb

    Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar{ (KNG, yl` {azag jchbar{ lg kn{a cj kcetngla{ y`lk` l{{qab

    {`nra{ jcr tqohlk' Rrng{jar cj ecga| {`nra{ ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ iccb{

    {arzlka{ t`|{lknh ngb lgahhakqnh ycrm{ nra {leqhngacq{h| rng{jarrab jrce cga nkkcqg c

    ngc`ar nkkcqg y`lha tqrk`n{lgi cr oq|lgi'

    >' Q{nia cj Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, % R`ara ylhh oa cgh| cga kcetqh{cr| ngbengbncr| E[N jcr ank` tar{cg ilzag o| `a Iczargeag' R`l{ E[N ylhh `nza jlza jchbar{ jcr

    ank` {takljlk tqrtc{a cj ng lgblzlbqnh'

    R`a jlr{ jchbar (hl~qlb ecga| jchbar, ylhh oa q{ab jcr {crnia ngb q{nia cj ecga| (lg RCT Rnp

    {|{ae l l{ knhhab n{ hl~qlb ecga|, iagarnab `rcqi` {nzlgi{#anrglgi{#lgkcea{#bcgnlcg{'

    R`l{ jchbar cj E[N kng nh{c oa q{ab c rqg cr ctarna ng| oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| cygab y`chh| o|

    ng lgblzlbqnh'

    R`a {akcgb jchbar (leecznoha trctar| jchbar, {`nhh oa q{ab jcr rail{rnlcg {crnia ngb

    q{nia cj cygar{`lt rli`{ cj nhh leecznoha trctarla{ hlma hngb{ jhn{ thc{ kceearklnh

    a{nohl{`eag{ ngb akaarn' R`a cygar{`lt rli`{ cj `a{a n{{a{ ylhh oa rng{jarrab jrce cga

    tar{cg{ E[N c ngc`ar tar{cg{ E[N y`lha tqrk`n{lgi#{ahhlgi#bcgnlgi cj `a{a leecznohatrctarla{'

    R`a `lrb jchbar (ecznoha trctar| jchbar, {`nhh oa qlhl{ab jcr cygar{`lt rli`{ cj nhh ecznoha

    trctarla{ hlma za`lkha{ ichb fayahhar| ngb akaarn' R`a cygar{`lt rli`{ cj `a{a trctarla{

    ylhh oa rng{jarrab jrce cga tar{cg{ E[N c ngc`ar tar{cg{ E[N y`lha

    tqrk`n{a#{nha#bcgnlcg cj `a{a ecznoha trctarla{' Lg `a RCT Rnp {|{ae `a ecznoha ngb

    leecznoha trctarla{ nra knhhab n{ {chlb ecga|' R`a{a trctarla{ ({chlb ecga|, ylhh `nza oc`

    cygar{`lt rli`{ ngb lg t`|{lknh agfc|eag'

    Zlzlb apthngnlcg6 % Lg `l{ {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `a leecznoha trctar| jchbar

    ngb `a ecznoha trctar| jchbar{ cj Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, cj ank` tar{cg {`nhh oa

    qlhl{ab n{ `a ba%en nkkcqg cj `n tar{cg jcr cygar{`lt rli`{ cj oc` ecznoha ngbleecznoha trctarla{ hlma {`nra{ hngb{ thc{ jhn{ ichb {lhzar fayahhar| crgneag{ zar|

    `li` znhqab nrlkha{ eccr k|kha{ knr{ c`ar za`lkha{ ngb nhh c`ar trctarla{#n{{a{' Y`lha

    tqrk`n{lgi cr {ahhlgi `a rng{jar cj cygar{`lt cj `a{a n{{a{#trctarla{ jrce cga tar{cg c

    ngc`ar tar{cg {`nhh oa enba jrce cga tar{cg{ E[N c ngc`ar tar{cg{ E[N `rcqi`

    ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ lg ng ahakrcglk#blilnh jcre' [c `a rng{jar cj n{{a{ hlma hngb{ thc{

    jhn{ ichb fayahhar| crgneag{ ngb za`lkha{ ylhh nma thnka lg t`|{lknh jcre qtcg `a rng{jar

    cj cygar{`lt rli` cj `n n{{a lg blilnh jcre jrce cga E[N ({ahhar, c ngc`ar E[N (oq|ar,'

    Hnrkag| oqrihnrla{ hcclgi{ ngb apcrlcg{ ylhh kcea c ng agb oaknq{a yl`cq `a

    cygar{`lt rli`{ cj ichb {lhzar fayahhar| ngb c`ar `li` znhqab lae{ lg `a E[N{ `a| knggc

    oa {chb cr ocqi`' Lg hlarnh {ag{a ongm{ ylhh zlrqnhh| nk n{ kq{cblng{ jcr tactha{ ecga|({`nra{ n{{a{ ngb nhh ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{' R`a ongm orngk`a{# ongmlgi {arzlka

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    14/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >2

    kagra{ ylhh oa lgareablnrla{ oayaag tactha ngb Batc{lnr| y`c {`cqhb oa qgbar jqhh

    kcgrch iczargab ecglcrab ngb k`akmab o| Kagrnh Ongm cj `n tnrlkqhnr kcqgr|' Lg c`ar

    ycrb{ ongm orngk`a{#ongmlgi {arzlka kagra{ kng oa knhhab n{ {lgiha ylgbcy {`ct{ y`ara nhh

    on{lk {arzlka{ cj `a tactha ylhh oa ea' RCT Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ `n cnh hngb rakcrb cj `a

    kcqgr| {`cqhb oa baenarlnhl{ab nkkcrblgi c apag hcknlcg enttlgi ngb cygar{`lt' R`a

    hngb oahcgi{ c tactha ylhh oa rakcrbab lg `alr ra{taklza E[N{' [lelhnrh| `a hngb `n

    oahcgi{ c Iczargeag Iczargeag cringl{nlcg{ kcetngla{ {`cqhb oa rakcrbab lg `alr

    ra{taklza nkkcqg{' Lg `a RCT Rnp {|{ae `a ongm orngk`a{#ongmlgi {arzlka kagra{ ylhh nk

    n{ elbbha eag jcr tactha engqjnkqrar{ banhar{ {ahhar{ ngb oq|ar{ jcr rng{jar cr rnba cj

    ecga| {`nra{ kceecblla{ hngb{ jhn{ thc{ za`lkha{ ngb c`ar ecznoha cr leecznoha

    trctar| y`lha oq|lgi cr {ahhlgi n no{chqah| jraa cj kc{'

    Qgbar `a RCT np {|{ae hngb{ thc{ jhn{ cr c`ar trctarla{ tqrk`n{ab {`cqhb oa

    enba `rcqi` enlg {nzlgi{ nkkcqg cgh|' Lj ng| tar{cg oq|{ hngb thc jhn cr ng| c`ar

    trctar| ng|y`ara lg Lgbln `a apag ngb gnqra cj `a trctar| ylhh oa krablab lg `l{ Enlg[nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ngb `a {nea trctar| ylhh oa baolab jrce `a {ahhar{ Enlg [nzlgi{

    Nkkcqg (E[N,' Y`agazar `a#{`a {ahh{ ng| trctar| `n l{ krablab lg `l{ E[N `a {nea ylhh

    oa baolab jrce `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ngb `a {nea trctar| ylhh oa krablab lg `a

    oq|ar{ Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg E[N,' Fq{ hlma {`nra{ `ara ylhh oa gc tntar bckqeag{ jcr

    trctarla{' Qghlma kn{` rng{jar{ `a oq|ar{ tra{agka ngb {lignqra#nq`aglknlcg {`nhh nh{c

    oa gaabab jcr ng| ecznoha cr leecznoha trctar| rng{nklcg'

    R`ara ylhh oa gc eqhltha {ahhlgi cj `a {nea trctar| c bljjarag tactha ngb

    qgnq`crl{ab {ahhlgi#tqrk`n{a ngb lhhainh ckkqtnlcg cj c`ar tar{cg{ trctar| yl`cq

    `l{#`ar mgcylgi#kcg{ag ylhh gc oa tc{{loha'

    R`a jcqr` jchbar ({`nra{#{ckm{ jchbar, {`nhh oa qlhl{ab jcr {crnia ngb q{nia cj cygar{`ltrli`{ cj {`nra{#{ckm{ ocgb{ barlznlza{ ak' R`a cygar{`lt rli`{ cj `a{a {akqrlla{ ylhh oa

    rng{jarrab jrce cga tar{cg{ E[N c ngc`ar tar{cg{ E[N y`lha oq|lgi#{ahh lgi#bcgnlcg'

    R`a {`nra{ ylhh `nza cgh| cygar{`lt rli`{ ngb knhhab n{ {ael {chlb ecga|'

    R`a jlj` jchbar (jnelh| jchbar, {`nhh oa qlhl{ab jcr jnelh| banlh{ ngb knhhab n{ jnelh| jchbar'

    Enrrlnia rail{rnlcg ngb k`lhb olr` rail{rnlcg{ ylhh oa enba oc` lg `q{ongb ngb ylja{

    jnelh| jchbar{ cj E[N{' On{ab cg `a banlh{ lg `a jnelh| jchbar{ ecg`h| rnlcg{ ylhh oa

    kcetqab ngb rng{jarrab azar| ecg` lg `a jcre cj kn{` blrakh| lgc `a ylja{ E[N{'

    Azar| k`lhb ylhh ia `l{#`ar cyg E[N nkkcqg n `a nia cj >1 |anr{' R`a ongm {naeag cjR`a

    jlj` jchbar (jnelh| jchbar, cj E[N cj ng| lgblzlbqnh kng oa qlhl{ab n{ kn{a ngb lgkcea

    karljlkna zcar hl{ rnlcg knrb ngb tn{{tcr' L kng oa conlgab yl`lg elgqa{ jrce ng|ongm ngb jrce ng|y`ara lg `a kcqgr|' Tactha gaab gc tn| orloa{ c ia `a{a karljlkna{

    cr bckqeag{ jrce razagqa batnreag ngb tn{{tcr cjjlka{' Nhh jqgb{ nhhcknab cynrb{

    yahjnra cj [K{ [R{ ngb OK{ kng oa rng{jarrab blrakh| lgc `a E[N{ cj `a{a {aklcg{

    hanzlgi gc rcce jcr hanmnia{ orloa{ ngb el{nttrctrlnlcg cj `a{a jqgb{'

    Zlzlb apthngnlcg6% Nhh `a banlh{ cj n tar{cg{ ckkqtnlcg( abqknlcgnh ~qnhljlknlcg{(

    enrrlnia brlzlgi hlkag{a tn{{tcr `l{#`ar hlja tnrgar{ gnea TNG gqeoar (E[N, (ngb zlka

    zar{n, k`lhbrag ngb `alr nia ak ylhh oa rakcrbab lg `a jlj` jchbar(jnelh| jchbar, cj `l{#`ar

    Enlg [nzlgi{ nkkcqg' R`a tnrag{ {`cqhb rail{ar `alr k`lhb{ banlh{ lg `a bnn rakcrb cj

    `alr Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, yl`lg `raa ecg`{ cj `alr k`lhb{ olr`' Cgka `a k`lhb

    ia{ `a nia cj >1 |anr{ `a#{`a ylhh nqcenlknhh| ia TNG ngb E[N' R`a cnh knra ngb yahjnracj `a crt`ng{ {`cqhb oa nmag o| `a [na iczargeag{ lhh `a k`lhb rank`a{ `a nia cj ?4

    |anr{'

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    15/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >1

    R`l{ {|{ae cnhh| ngb tarengagh| k`akm{ `a azar lgkran{lgi trcohae cj lhhainh elirnlcg

    jrce Tnml{ng ngb Ongihnba{` k`ngilgi `a baecirnt`lk trctcrlcg cj Lgbln c ng

    qglenilgnoha hazah' Cgka nhh `a kllvag{ nocza `a nia cj >1 |anr{ nra ilzag `a engbncr|

    Enlg [nzlgi{ nkkcqg (E[N, ngb `a RCT Rnp {|{ae oakcea{ jqhh| ctarnlcgnh gc nbqh ylhh

    oa ilzag Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, `aranjar' Jrce `aranjar azar| nbbllcgnh Enlg

    [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg E[N ylhh oa ng cjj{`cc cj ng apl{lgi E[N oahcgilgi c tnrag{' R`ara ylhh oa

    gc ~qa{lcg cj nbbllcgnh jra{` E[N yl`cq tnrag{ apl{lgi E[N' [lelhnrh| apl{lgi E[N{ ylhh

    kcea c kan{a qtcg `a ban` cj lgblzlbqnh{' Nhh `a ecga| {`nra{ ecznoha ngb leecznoha

    trctarla{ rakcrbab lg `a jlza jchbar{ cj E[N cj `a bakan{ab tar{cg ylhh oa rng{jarrab c

    `l{#`ar hainh `alr{' R`a cnh gqeoar cj E[N{ ylhh lgkran{a azar| |anr batagblgi qtcg `a

    ircy` rna cj tctqhnlcg cj `n kcqgr|' RCT Rnp {|{ae ylhh rakcrb= enlgnlg azar|

    lgblzlbqnh{ jnelh| rakcrb iagarnlcg njar iagarnlcg' R`arajcra lhhainh elirng{ jrce c`ar

    kcqgrla{ knggc agar lhhainhh| lgc Lgbln ia Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg cr [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{

    ngb n{{lelhna lg Lgblng tctqhnlcg' L ylhh oa n hc an{lar jcr `a iczargeag c baakarrcrl{{ ngb elhlng{ y`c krc{{ czar jrce nkrc{{ `a ocrbar c lgbqhia lg qghnyjqh nklzlla{'

    RCT np {|{ae ylhh oa ctarnab {chah| o| ongm{ c trczlba bljjarag {arzlka{ jcr `a

    Iczargeag hlma npnlcg np kchhaklcg np agjcrkaeag= jcr l{{qlgi kn{a karljlkna{

    lgkcea karljlkna{ zcar hl{{ ecg`h| rnlcg{ {qo{lbla{ tag{lcg{ knhnel| rahlaj jqgb{

    tn{{tcr{ hlkagka{ jaa{ raleoqr{aeag{ {k`chnr{`lt{ ak' n no{chqah| jraa cj kc{' RCT

    Rnp {|{ae ctarnab o| ongm{ ylhh nh{c `aht tactha lg ialgi nhh `a nocza eaglcgab

    {arzlka{ n {lgiha ylgbcy `rcqi` `alr E[N{ yl` jlza bljjarag jchbar{' R`n eang{ RCT Rnp

    {|{ae ylhh rathnka tra{ag {|{ae{ eqhltha batnreag{ hlma Lgkcea np batnreag

    Kagrnh Apkl{a batnreag KOBR KOAK Rnp rloqgnh{ tn{{tcr batnreag kag{q{

    batnreag( [na{ kceearklnh np batnreag{( klzlh {qtthla{ batnreag{( rail{rnlcgbatnreag{ razagqa batnreag{ ak' {nzlgi `cq{ngb{ cj krcra{ cj Iczargeag{ gcg%

    thng aptagblqra'

    ?' Q{nia cj [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ([[N,6% Azar| tar{cg kng ctag ngb ctarna n{ eqk`gqeoar cj [[N{ n{ `a#{`a yl{`a{' R`a [[N ylhh `nza cgh| cga jchbar knhhab n{ hl~qlb ecga|

    jchbar' R`l{ jchbar {`nhh oa q{ab jcr rakalzlgi {crnia ngb q{nia cj ecga| c ctarna ng|

    oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| o| ng lgblzlbqnh' '

    ;' Q{nia cj Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar (KNG,6 % Kcrtcrna kcetngla{ EGK{ ngbTqohlk hlelab kcetngla{ y`lk` {chb#l{{qab {`nra{ c `a tqohlk ylhh oa ilzag KNG{' Ank`

    Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar ylhh `nza {azag jchbar{ jcr ank` {takljlk ctarnlgi#rqgglgi

    tqrtc{a cj `a kcetng|'

    R`a jlr{ jchbar {`nhh oa qlhl{ab jcr {crnia ngb q{nia cj ecga| jcr rqgglgi `n kcetng|'

    R`a {akcgb jchbar {`nhh oa qlhl{ab jcr `nzlgi nhh rakcrb{ cj leecznoha trctarla{ hlma hngb

    oqlhblgi{ lgjrn{rqkqra ngb akaarn cj `n trcfak#thng#oq{lga{{' R`a `lrb jchbar {`nhh oa

    q{ab jcr rail{rnlcg {crnia ngb q{nia cj cygar{`lt rli`{ jcr nhh jhaa cj za`lkha{ ngb c`ar

    ecznoha trctarla{ hlma enk`lgar| akaarn ra~qlrab jcr rqgglgi cj `n kcetng|' R`a jcqr`

    jchbar {`nhh oa q{ab jcr {crnia cj nhh {`nra{ cj `a trcecar{ ngb `a tqohlk cj `n kcetng|'

    R`a jlj` jchbar {`nhh kcgnlg `a banlh{ ngb nkkcqg{ cj nhh `a aethc|ab engtcyar cj `n

    kcetng|' R`a {lp` jchbar {`nhh kcgnlg `a banlhab nkkcqg{ cj nhh rny enarlnh{ ngb c`ar

    ra~qlrab lgtq{ ocqi` ngb q{ab jcr rqgglgi cj `n kcetng|' R`a {azag` jchbar {`nhh kcgnlg

    `a banlh{ ngb nkkcqg{ cj nhh trcbqk{ engqjnkqrab( {nha{ ngb lgzagcr|' RCT Rnp {|{ae{KNG yl` {azag jchbar{ l{ n gay trckabqra c {aa `n kcetng|{ jlgngklnh occm{ ya ra khang

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    16/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >:

    nkkqrna ctag ngb rng{tnrag c nhh {`nra `chbar{ {c `n `ara kng oa gc rcce jcr jrnqbqhag

    ngb bakatlza jlgngklnh {naeag{'

    Zlzlb apthngnlcg6 % R`a RCT Rnp {|{ae{ Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar{ KNG{, yl` {azag

    jchbar{ ylhh enma nhh kcetngla{ nkkcqg{ jqhh| rng{tnrag ngb ctag c nhh {`nra `chbar{ azar|

    bn| (qghlma ~qnrarh| `nhj%|anr ngb |anrh| {naeag{ rahan{ab o| `a kcetngla{ lg `a tra{ag

    {|{ae, jcr lg{taklcg {qb| ngb ngnh|{l{ oajcra lgza{lgi `alr `nrb anrgab ecga| lg {`nra{

    cj `c{a kcetngla{ yl` {cqgb jlgngklnh tc{llcg' R`a rng{tnrag nkkcqglgi {|{ae lg KNG{

    yl` {azag {atnrna jchbar{ jcr ecga| ecznoha trctar| leecznoha trctar| engtcyar

    {`nra{ rny enarlnh{ ngb c`ar lgtq{ ngb engqjnkqrab trcbqk{ ngb lgzagcr| ylhh raecza

    nhh jrnqb{ lg nkkcqglgi {akqrlla{ {ckm{ ngb lgza{eag ' R`a{a KNG{ yl` {azag jchbar{

    ag{qra `n `ara ylhh oa gc k`ngka cj jrnqbqhag oq{lga{{ trnklka{ cj czar{nlgi trcjl{

    kcgkanhlgi bao{ {tranblgi `a aptag{a{ cq czar {azarnh |anr{ qgbar zclklgi cr czar zclklgi

    cj rny enarlnh{ lgtq{ ngb engqjnkqrab trcbqk{ qgbar cr czar {nlgi cj {ckm{ tnbblgi

    qt cj trcfak kc{ ngb blzarlgi cj jqgb{ n ircqgblgi kcg{rqklcg araklcg ngb nhh {nia{ cjtrcfak lethaeagnlcg ngb tqohlknlcg cj jnh{ljlab jlgngklnh ratcr{' R`a KNG{ cj RCT Rnp

    {|{ae kng nh{c k`akm `a blzar{lcg cj jqgb{ jrce cga kcetng| c ngc`ar kcetng| yl`lg `a

    ircqt kcetngla{ ({nea trcecar{,' R`a RCT np {|{ae ilza{ n oli occ{ c {ckm enrma{ n{

    tactha {nr oq|lgi `qia hc{ cj {`nra{ c enlgnlg elgleqe onhngka lg `alr nkkcqg{ lg crbar

    c nzclb Trcjl np' R`ara ylhh oa gc {ligljlkng ajjak cj RCT np {|{ae cg lgrnbn| rnblgi ngb

    Jqqra ctlcg{ rnblgi oaknq{a `a hcc{ar hcc{a{ aprn 2! cj `a hc{{ necqg cgh| lg `a

    lgrnbn| rnblgi' Tactha ylhh trajar c oq| {`nra{ cg `a hcgi are ngb nggqnh |lahb on{l{' R`a|

    lgza{ lg `a kcetngla{ y`lk` ilza `ngb{cea blzlbagb{ |anr njar |anr'

    RCT Rnp {|{ae{ jlza enlg cofaklza{ nra >,R`a np kchhaklcg{ jrce

    tactha ?, `a bl{rloqlcg cj razagqa{ jrce iczargeag{ c tactha lg `a jcre cj {qo{lbla{rahlaj jqgb{ lg `a azag cj gnqrnh knhnella{ hlma anr` ~qnma{ jhccb{ jnelga{ tag{lcg{

    kn{` rng{jar{ cynrb{ ecg`h| rnlcg{ `c{tlnh olhh{ abqknlcg olhh{ a' ;, trczlblgi nhh

    on{lk {arzlka{ lgkhqblgi rail{rnlcg{ cj ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ brlzlgi hlkagka{

    nlr oq{ rnlg lkma{ tarel{ hlkagka{ tn|eag cj ahakrlkl| ahat`cga olhh{ ynar ka{{

    `cq{a npa{ l{{qa cj zcar hl{{ ngb zcar {hlt{ olr` ngb ban` rail{rnlcg{ kag{q{ jliqra{

    n azar| bn| azar| `cqr azar| elgqa (qghlma n azar| baknba lg `a tra{ag {|{ae,

    2, hagblgi ecga| c ocrrcyar{ n `a hcya{ TH_ (nzarnia ;!tar nggqe,' Nhh `a{a

    cofaklza{ kng oa ea ngb knrrlab `rcqi` ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ c nhh tactha n {lgiha

    ylgbcy {lqnab ganra{ c `alr `cea{ (1, lethaeagnlcg cj yahjnra {k`aea{ c OK{ [K{

    [R{ cynrb{ abqknlcg {ahj aethc|eag ngb c`ar nran{ ngb ecg`h| tag{lcg{ c {aglcrkllvag{ (yl` gc cr tnhr| lgkcea{, ngb t`|{lknhh| k`nhhagiab'

    RCT Rnp {|{ae{ enlg cofaklza{ ylhh oa knrrlab `rcqi` ongm{#{arzlka

    kagra{ n no{chqah| jraa cj kc{' R`a `qia aptagblqra kc{ oalgi lgkqrrab o| `a znrlcq{

    [na Iczargeag{ ngb Kagrnh Iczargeag jcr np kchhaklcg{ `rcqi` bljjarag np kchhaklcg

    batnreag{ ylhh oa {nzab' R`q{ `a `qia np kchhaklcg aptagblqra {nzab kng oa oaar

    qlhl{ab jcr trczlblgi jraa `anh` knra {arzlka ngb abqknlcg c nhh tactha cj `a gnlcg'

    Nhh `a anrglgi{#{nzlgi{ cj ng lgblzlbqnh batc{lab lg `alr ra{taklza

    nkkcqg{ (E[N#[[N, lg `a jcre cj gqearlknh#blilnh znhqa kng oa qlhl{ab n ng| lea jcr

    oq|lgi cj ecznoha cr leecznoha trctar| cr jcr ng| c`ar hainhh| nhhcyab tqrtc{a' R`a

    qgqlhl{ab batc{l{ ylhh oa bl{oqr{ab n{ hcng{ c `a ocrrcyar{ o| `a ongm{ n `a hcya{hagblgi rna (nzarnia ;! tar nggqe n{ ctarnlgi kc{,' R`a cnh trcjl{ (ng a{lenab

    :2

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    17/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >9

    ngb `a| kng eaa nhh `a cofaklza{ cj RCT Rnp {|{ae l'a' trczlblgi nhh on{lk {arzlka{ c tactha

    n no{chqah| jraa cj kc{ n {lgiha ylgbcy'

    Tqohlk Bl{rloqlcg [|{ae ylhh oa knrrlab `rcqi` ongm{#ongmlgi {arzlka

    kagra{'R`a RCT Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ bl{rloqlcg cj ecg`h| rnlcg{ lg `a jcre cj kn{` a~qnhhlgi

    `a cnh kc{ cj irnlg{ ngb {qo{lb| tcrlcg cj marc{aga#HTI {qinr kccmlgi clh rng{jarrab

    blrakh| c `a Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ (E[N, cj jnelhla{ y`c{a nggqnh lgkcea{ nra ha{{ `ng

    _{'> 14444 cr n{ baklbab o| `a Iczargeag n `a oqbia tra{agnlcg azar| |anr' R`a

    ecg`h| kn{` rng{jar{ {`cqhb oa enba cg `a >{

    cj azar| ecg` c `a yceag{ E[N cj ank`

    jnelh|' R`l{ {|{ae ylhh {arza ali` tqrtc{a{' (>, R`a aetcyareag cj yceag kng oa

    nk`lazab n han{ c {cea apag' (?, R`a el{q{a cj qgqlhl{ab rnlcg (rlka#y`an marc{aga

    {qinr kccmlgi clh ak', o| `a banhar{ ylhh oa kqroab' (;, R`ara ylhh oa gc nbqharnlcg cj bla{ah

    ngb tarch yl` qgqlhl{ab #el{q{ab marc{aga `rcqi` TB[' (2, R`a `l`arc klrkqlcq{ kc{h|

    ngb kcrrqtlcg rlbbag TB[ ylhh oa icga' (1, R`a trlka{ cj kceecblla{ ylhh kcea bcyg

    {qo{nglnhh|' (:, Tactha kng oq| ~qnhl| irnlg{ cj `alr k`cc{lgi o| q{lgi kn{`' (9, R`a trlka cj

    marc{aga kng oa enba cg tnr yl` bla{ah ahlelgnlgi nbqharnlcg cj bla{ah ngb tarch' (0, R`a

    el{q{a cj HTI jcr kceearklnh tqrtc{a ylhh oa cnhh| kqroab' (> jnklhlnlgi `a cnh raecznh cj {qo{lb|

    cg jarlhlvar{ ngb l{ el{q{a o| jarlhlvar kcetngla{'

    R`a jlj` ngb ec{ letcrng cofaklza{ cj ongm{#ongmlgi {arzlka kagra{ ylhh oa `a

    engniaeag cj azar| lgblzlbqnh{ nhh ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ lg ahakrcglk#blilnh

    jcren{ lg `a jlza {atnrna jchbar{ lg Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N,'

    Lg `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `a Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, yl` jlza jchbar{ cj

    ank` tar{cg {`nhh oa qlhl{ab n{ `a ba%en nkkcqg cj `n tar{cg jcr `chblgi ecga| bao

    ecga| ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ hlma {`nra{ hngb{ thc{ jhn{ ichb {lhzar fayahhar|

    crgneag{ zar| `li` znhqab nrlkha{ eccr k|kha{ knr{ c`ar za`lkha{ ngb nhh c`ar

    trctarla{#n{{a{' Y`lha tqrk`n{lgi cr {ahhlgi `a rng{jar cj `a{a n{{a{#trctarla{ jrce cga

    tar{cg c ngc`ar tar{cg {`nhh oa enba jrce cga tar{cg{ E[N c ngc`ar tar{cg{ E[N

    `rcqi` ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ lg ng ahakrcglk jcre'

    Qgbar `a RCT np {|{ae hngb{ thc{ jhn{ cr c`ar trctarla{ tqrk`n{ab {`cqhb oa

    enba `rcqi` enlg {nzlgi{ nkkcqg cgh|' Lj ng| tar{cg oq|{ hngb thc jhn cr ng| c`artrctar| ng|y`ara lg Lgbln `a apag ngb gnqra cj `a trctar| ylhh oa krablab lg `l{ Enlg

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    18/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >0

    [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ngb `a {nea trctar| ylhh oa baolab jrce `a {ahhar{ Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg

    (E[N,' Y`agazar `a#{`a {ahh{ ng| trctar| `n l{ krablab lg `l{ E[N `a {nea ylhh oa

    baolab jrce `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ngb `a {nea trctar| ylhh oa krablab lg `a

    oq|ar{ Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg E[N,' Fq{ hlma {`nra{ `ara ylhh oa gc tntar bckqeag{ jcr

    ecznoha#leecznoha trctarla{' Qghlma kn{` rng{jar{ `a oq|ar{ tra{agka ngb

    {lignqra#nq`aglknlcg {`nhh nh{c oa gaabab jcr ng| ecznoha cr leecznoha trctar|

    rng{nklcg'

    ;' Ecga| {qtth| ranh ecga| ngb krabl ecga|RCT Rnp {|{ae{ Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg E[N ylhh `nza jlza jchbar{ jcr ecga| {`nra{#{ckm{

    ocgb{ barlznlza{ ecznoha trctar| leecznoha trctar| ngb jnelh|' R`a [qo [nzlgi{

    Nkkcqg ylhh `nza cgh| cga jchbar jcr ecga|' R`a Kcrtcrna Nkkcqg Gqeoar ylhh `nza {azag

    jchbar{ jcr ecga| ecznoha trctar| leecznoha trctar| {akqrlla{ rny enarlnh{ ngb c`ar

    lgtq{ eng tcyar engqjnkqrab trcbqk{' R`a jlr{ jchbar cj nhh `a{a `raa nkkcqg{ ylhh oa

    q{ab jcr {crnia ngb q{nia cj ecga| jcr tar{cgnh cr oq{lga{{ cr lgbq{rlnh tqrtc{a' Jcr

    banlhab q{nia cj `a{ankkcqg{ than{a {aa tnia gqeoar>9 ngb >0'

    Rct Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ `a Kn{` ra{arza _nlc K__ tarengagh| n >4!' Nhh `a hcng{

    nmag o| ng| tar{cg ylhh oa rakcrbab ngb enlgnlgab lg `a {qo jchbar knhhab Bao ecga|

    jchbar cj `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg' R`a hcng ecga| l{ knhhab Bao ecga|' [lelhnrh| `a

    ocrrcylgi{ cj ecga| (hcng{, jcr lgbq{rla{ rqg o| kcrtcrna kcetngla{ cr tqohlk kcetngla{

    ylhh oa rakcrbab ngb enlgnlgab lg `a {qo jchbar knhhab Bao ecga| jchbar cj Kcrtcrna

    Nkkcqg Gqeoar{ (KNG{, cj `c{a kcetngla{' R`a cnh ecga| lg nhh E[N{ [[N{ KNG{ Ongm

    nkkcqg{ ngb Iczargeag nkkcqg{ ylhh oa kcg{ng `rcqi`cq `a |anr yl` n hlha znrlnlcg

    cj '4>! oaknq{a cj elgl{kqha tntar kqrragk|' R`a cnh hcng{#nbzngka{ ilzag o| nhh Ongm{

    (rakcrbab n{ Bao ecga| lg Bat ecga| jchbar{ cj E[N{ ngb KNG{, {`cqhb gc oa ecra `ng

    29';9! (lj K__ 5 >4!, cj `a cnh ecga|#hl~qlb ecga| (ecga| y`lk` lgkhqba{ oc` ranh

    ecga| ngb hcng ecga|, lg nhh E[N{ [[N{ KNG{ngb Ongm{ cyg kntlnh ecga|'

    R`a ecga| jchbar cjOngm{ Nkkcqg ylhh `nza l{ kntlnh ecga| ngb trcjl{' L l{ knhhab

    kntlnh ecga|#jlpab ecga|' L l{ knhhab n{ jlpab ecga| oaknq{a l knggc oa ilzag n{ hcng n{

    ranh ecga|' R`a ongm{ kntlnh ecga| ylhh oa q{ab c tn| {nhnrla{ ngb cynrb{ c`ar ctarnlgi

    kc{{ cj `n ongm' Nhh `a hcng{ ilzag o| l ylhh oa rakcrbab lg ngc`ar {qo jchbar knhhab hcng

    ecga| jchbar' L{ gqearlknh jliqra{ {`cqhb oa lg rab kchcqr' Azar| lea `a ongm ilza{ hcng{

    `a Ongm{ kntlnh ecga|#jlpab ecga| {`cqhb gc oa k`ngiab' Oq `a ilzag hcng ecga| ylhh

    oa nbbab c `a Ongm{ hcng ecga| nkkcqg lg hcng ecga| jchbar' Kcrra{tcgblgih| `a hcng

    necqg ylhh oa nbbab c `a hl~qlb ecga| nkkcqg cjE[N cr [[N cr KNG y`c `n{ nmag `nhcng ngb n `a {nea lea `a hcng necqg ylhh oa rakcrbab lg `a Bao ecga| jchbar cj `a

    {nea E[N cr [[N cr KNG' Y`ag n hcng l{ ratnlb `a trlgkltha necqg cj `n hcng ylhh ic lg c

    `a hcng ecga| nkkcqg cj `n Ongm nkkcqg ngb hcng necqg lg rab kchcqr bakran{a{ o| `a

    ratnlb hcng necqg' Oq `a lgara{ necqg cj `n hcng {`cqhb oa krablab c `a Ongm{

    kntlnh ecga|#jlpab ecga|' [lelhnrh| y`agazar n hcng l{ ratnlb `rcqi` ng| E[N cr KNG `a

    tnlb necqg ylhh oa bakran{ab jrce oc` `a hl~qlb ecga| nkkcqg ngb bao ecga| nkkcqg

    cj `a {nea E[N cr KNG' Than{a gca `n y`ag Ongm(P, ilza{ hcng{ l{ kntlnh ecga|#jlpab

    ecga| ycqhb gc k`ngia oq lgkran{a{ y`ag lgara{ cg hcng{ tnlb c l ngb bakran{a{ y`ag

    Ongm(P,{ {nhnrla{ ngb c`ar ctarnlgi kc{{ nra tnlb' Ongm{ {nhnrla{ ngb c`ar

    rqgglgi#ctarnlgi kc{{ {`cqhb oa tnlb jrce `a kntlnh ecga|#jlpab ecga| cj `a Ongm{Nkkcqg' [c `a kntlnh ecga|#jlpab ecga| elgq{ `a lgllnh kntlnh nra Ongm{ trcjl{' Lj `a

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    19/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia >

    5

    `a ranh ecga| >44 ylhh oa 4! `ag `a cnh krabl `n kng oa iagarnab hag

    ngb nbbab c `a ranh ecga| ylhh oa 4! nggqnh nzarnia {letha lgara{ 5 ;!

    ctarnlgi kc{ cj ongm{ 5 \ ngb cnh rail{rnlcg k`nria{ cj nhh leecznoha ngb ecznoha

    trctarla{ 5 P `ag `a cnh trcjl{ tar nggqe ic o| nhh Ongm{ lg `a kcqgr| 5 ](T%T#>4, P;#>44U - P\' R`n eang{ cnh trcjl{ 5 ?9T#>444 - P \' R`n lethla{ trcjl{ 5 (4'4?9! cj T,

    - P % \' R`a{a enpleqe trcjl{ ylhh `nza c oa {`nrab o| nhh Ongm ctarncr{ lg `a kcqgr|'

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    20/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?4

    Ank` Ongm ctarncr{ trcjl ylhh batagb qt cg `a ranh ecga| nznlhnoha lg nhh E[N{ [[N{ ngb

    KNG{ l ctarna{' [c `a Ongm ctarncr{ ylhh zla yl` cga ngc`ar jcr ecra nkkcqg{ o|

    trczlblgi trcet ngb ~qnhl| {arzlka{ c l{ kq{cear{' _anh ecga| eang{ cnh hl~qlb ecga|

    elgq{ cnh hcng ecga|#baoecga| ilzag o| ongm{' Than{a {aa tnia gqeoar >0 ngb >< jcr

    tc{{loha ctarnlgi kc{ cj `a Ongm{ ngb `alr trcjl{' Ongm{ kntlnh lgza{eag knggc oa

    yl`brnyg jrce a ongm qgha{{ l l{ apkaabab cga glg` znhqa{ cj l{ cnh hcng{ ilzag' Lg

    c`ar ycrb{ cgh| `a aprn ecga| y`lk` eang{ trcjl{ czar `a lgllnh kntlnh lgza{eag kng

    oa yl`brnyg jrce `a Ongm o| l{ trcecar{' RCT Rnp {|{ae ag{qra{ `n ecga| {qtth| bca{

    gc ia {nignab lg `a jlgngklnh {|{ae n{ apka{{ ra{arza{ oaknq{a cj `a{a jchhcylgi jnkcr{'

    R`a jlr{ cga l{ `a Trcjl Rnp y`lk` kcg{ngh| tqet{ ecga| onkm lg c `a jlgngklnh {|{ae'

    R`a {akcgb cga l{ `a hlelab tntar kqrragk| y`lk` cnhh| raecza{ ohnkm ecga| n {rcgi`chb

    cj {nignab ngb `loargnab ecga| lg raka{{lcg tarlcb{' R`a `lrb jnkcr l{ hcy lgara{ rna{

    ngb jn{ar {ngklcglgi cj hcng{ oaknq{a nhh kcetcgag{ cj ecga| ngb yanh` nra rakcrbab

    {crab enlgnlgab ngb q{ab lg `a {nea E[N{ ngb KNG{'Azar| |anr nbbllcgnh ranhecga| a~qnhhlgi 1?':;! cj `a znhqa cj `a ircy` lg `a

    IBT elgq{ `a znhqa cj `a ircy` (lj ng|, lg `a aptcr{ y`ag kcetnrab c hn{ |anr {`cqhb

    oa nbbab c `a Iczargeag nkkcqg n `a lea oqbia tra{agnlcg c k`akm bajhnlcg ngb

    raka{{lcg' R`a enfcr tcrlcg (14!, cj `l{ nbbab ecga| {`cqhb oa nhhcknab cynrb{ tag{lcg{

    c {aglcr kllvag{ y`c `nza gc cr tnhr| lgkcea{' R`a raenlglgi tcrlcg {`nhh oa nhhcknab c

    yahjnra {k`aea{ `anh` knra {arzlka{ ngb abqknlcg ngb lgjrn{rqkqra {akcr{' Cgka `l{ ranh

    ecga| l{ nbbab ngb eariab lg `a klrkqhnlgi ecga| `a raenlglgi tcrlcg cj 29';9! cj `a

    znhqa cj `a ircy` lg `a IBT elgq{ `a znhqa cj `a ircy` (lj ng|, ylhh nh{c oa iagarnab

    `rcqi` hcng{ n{ bao ecga|#hcng ecga| o| `a ongm{ ngb nbbab c `a klrkqhnlgi ecga| lg

    `a jlgngka {|{ae' R`a ongm{ trcjl{ ylhh lgkran{a `rcqi` lgara{{ cg `l{ nbbllcgnh hcngecga| azar| |anr' RCT Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ `n cnh hl~qlb ecga| (ranh ecga| ngb bao

    ecga|#hcng ecga|, c oa gaka{{nr| jcr klrkqhnlcg lg ongm{ {`cqhb oa n `a elgleqe hazah

    >?4! ngb n enpleqe hazah >14! cj `a znhqa cj IBT cj `a kcqgr|' N{{qelgi `n ank`

    kceecbl|#{arzlka l{ k`ngiab `ngb{ `raa lea{ lg `a kcg{qear ranlhar banhar ngb

    engqjnkqra k`nlg `a k|kha{ cj `a cnh ecga| lg `a klrkqhnlcg ylhh oa n nzarnia `raa tar

    |anr'

    R`a cnh ecga| (hl~qlb ecga|, Bao Ecga|#hcngab ecga| {`nra{#{ckm{ ecznoha

    trctarla{ ngb leecznoha trctarla{ cj lgblzlbqnh{ cr lgbq{rla{ ylhh oa {crab rakcrbab

    enlgnlgab ngb rng{jcreab lg `a {nea nkkcqg{ cj E[N{ ngb KNG{' R`a ecznoha ngb

    leecznoha trctarla{ kng oa ecriniab ngb rng{jcreab lg c hl~qlb ecga| jcr tar{cgnhoq{lga{{ cr lgbq{r| tqrtc{a' [lgka nhh `a ecga| bao{ {`nra{ ngb n{{a{ nra rakcrbab hlgmab

    ngb kcznhagh| ocgbab cia`ar qgbar bljjarag jchbar{ lg `a {nea Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg lg

    `a kn{a cj lgblzlbqnh{ ngb lg `a kcrtcrnankkcqg gqeoar{ lg `a kn{a cj kcetngla{= `a

    trcka{{ cj hcng {ngklcg ylhh oa jn{ar ngb {ec`ar' R`ara ylhh oa gc bajnqh{ cg hcng{ ngb

    gcgtarjcrelgi n{{a{ knhhab GTN{' Cgka `a hcng{ nra ratnlb `a n{{a{ ylhh oa rahan{ab jrce

    ecrinia lg{ngh|' R`a cnh ranh ecga| ngb Bao ecga|#hcng ecga| `a ranh n{{a{ ngb

    ecriniab n{{a{ cj ng lgblzlbqnh cr n kcetng| kng oa an{lh| bl{lgiql{`noha' Lg `a tra{ag

    {|{ae ecga| {`nra{ ecznoha ngb leecznoha trctarla{ nra rakcrbab ngb enlgnlgab o|

    bljjarag lg{lqlcg{ batnreag{ ngb niagkla{' Hcng ecga|#nbzngka{ nra enlgnlgab lg

    {atnrna nkkcqg{' [c `a ranh ecga| ngb hcngab ecga|#krabl ecga| nra elgihab cia`aroa|cgb rakcigllcg ngb gc an{lh| bl{lgiql{`noha o| kqr{cr| {qb| cj `a nkkcqg{' R`a

    tra{ag {|{ae{ eqhltha iagarnlcg cj ecga| {qtth| `rcqi` hcng{ cg hcng{ l{ nkqnhh|

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    21/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?>

    bynrjlgi `a ranh ecga| ngb knq{lgi qgkcgrchhab lgjhnlcg ngb nkkqeqhnlcg cj ecga| lg n

    jay tckma{'

    Y`| `a {qiia{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ cnh raecznh cj

    lgara{ rna{ cg baengb batc{l{ ngb jlpab batc{l{3Ng| rqh| baeckrnlk Iczargeag {`cqhb ag{qra `n yanh` jhcy{

    jrce `a rlk` c `a tccr' Oq qgjcrqgnah| `a lgzar{a l{ `nttaglgi lg `a tra{ag {|{ae'

    Ecga| `n{ oaag kcg{ngh| rng{jarrlgi jrce `a `nza%gc{ c `a `nza{ lg `a jcre cj

    lgara{ rna{ cg baengb batc{l{ ngb jlpab batc{l{' R`a rlk` nra oakcelgi rlk`ar o| n

    han{ 0! azar| |anr ngb `a tccr nra ialgi tccrar azar| |anr o| tn|lgi lgara{ lgblrakh|

    cg baengb#jlpab batc{l{ cj `a rlk` y`lha oq|lgi a{{aglnh kceecblla{#{arzlka{ ngb

    blrakh| tn|lgi `rcqi` `li` lgara{{ cg `a hcng{ nmag o| `ae' R`a ongm{ nra tn|lgi `qia

    necqg{ n{ lgara{{ c `a rlk` o| aprnklgi blrakh| jrce `a tccr `rcqi` `li` lgara{

    rna{ cg `a hcng{ ilzag c `ae ngb lgblrakh| `rcqi` lgara{{ cg hcng{ ilzag c rlk`

    lgbq{rlnhl{{ n{ `a lgbq{rlnhl{{ azagqnhh| tn{{ cg `a lgara{ oqrbag c `a kcg{qear{ o|

    ag`ngklgi `a trlka{ cj kceecblla{#{arzlka{' R`a enfcrl| cj `a tactha `nza c ycrm aprn

    `nrb gc cgh| c anrg jcr `ae{ahza{ oq nh{c c tn| `a lgara{ cg `a batc{l{ cj `a rlk`

    nh`cqi` lgblrakh| o| oq|lgi lgara{ kcetcgag lgkhqbab kceecblla{#{arzlka{ n `li`ar

    trlka{' R`a `nza%gc{ nra tn|lgi `a aglra lgara{ necqg{ cg batc{l{ ngb {nzlgi{ al`ar

    blrakh| cr lgblrakh| o| bajnqh' Lg{anb cj q{lgi ecga| n{ eablqe jcr rng{jar cj

    kceecblla{ cr {arzlka{ oayaag tactha `a ecga| l{ahj l{ oalgi q{ab n{ ng n{{a c

    iagarna lgkcea{ `rcqi` lgara{{' R`a nkkqeqhnlcg ngb {nkmlgi cj ecga| o| ng

    lgblzlbqnh l{ iagarnlgi ecga| jcr trciag| iagarnlcg njar iagarnlcg' R`a iagarnlcg cj

    ecga| cg {crab ecga| l{ gc`lgi oq n babqklcg cj ecga| jrce `nrb anrglgi ycrmlgi

    khn{{' R`l{ tnrn{llk tchlk| cj `a rlk` jaablgi cg `a tccr o| {nttlgi nhh `alr agari| c `a

    {qtargnkqhqe ylhh oa agbab yl` `a nbctlcg ngb lethaeagnlcg cj RCT Rnp {|{ae' RCT

    Rnp {|{ae ylhh ag{qra `n ecga| ylhh oa tqrah| q{ab n{ eablqe jcr rng{jar cj

    kceecblla{ cr {arzlka{ necgi tactha'

    @agka `a RCT Rnp {|{ae {qiia{{ cnh raecznh cj lgara{{ cg jlpab

    batc{l{ ngb baengb batc{l{' R`a rlk` ylhh `nza c {tagb apnkh| `a necqg `a| anrg cr

    {nza ngb gc n tagg| ecra ic o| zlrqa cj lgara{' Oq n `a {nea lea `a rlk` ylhh `nza

    iranar oagajl{ lg `a RCT Rnp {|{ae' R`a| gaab gc tn| Lgkcea np n nhh' R`a| kng {tagb

    y`nazar ecga| `a| anrg yl`cq oc`arlgi nocq nkkcqglgi nqbllgi ngb lgkcea np

    raqrg{' R`a cnh ecga| {nzab jrce lgkcea np cg aglra anrglgi{#{nzlgi{ bqrlgi `alr hlja

    lea ylhh oa ecra `ng `a lgara{ hc{ cg `alr batc{l{' Ecra letcrngh| `a tccr ylhh iaecga| n hcy lgara{ rna{ (?! tar nggqe,' R`a| ylhh `nza `alr cyg `cea{ ngb `a| ylhh

    ia a{{aglnh kceecblla{ n eqk` k`antar trlka{ `ng cbn|'

    Tra{agh| enfcr {`nra cj razagqa{ cj oc` Kagra ngb [na{ l{ oalgi icoohab qt

    o| `a `qia oqrbag kc{ cj lgara{ tn|eag{ cg lgargnh ocrrcylgi{' R`a `qia necqg{

    {nzab cg lgara{ tn|eag{ o| `a Kagrnh ngb [na iczargeag{ cg lgargnh ocrrcylgi{

    kng oa qlhl{ab c trczlba jraa `anh` knra {arzlka{ ngb ~qnhl| abqknlcg c nhh tactha cj `a

    kcqgr|' L l{ rqa `n {cea cj `a {aglcr kllvag{ rah| {chah| cg ecg`h| lgara{ tn|eag{

    cg `alr hlja lea {nzlgi{' @agka l l{ no{chqah| letarnlza `n `a enfcr tcrlcg cj `a

    {nzab lgara{ cg lgargnh ocrrcylgi{ o| `a Kagra ngb [na{ ngb `a {nzab np kchhaklcg

    aptagblqra kc{ {`cqhb oa ilzag c nhh {aglcr kllvag{ (yl` gc cr tnhr| lgkcea{, nocza `ania cj :1 |anr{ n{ tag{lcg azar| ecg`'

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    22/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ??

    Nhh `a tra{ag bn| k`l jqgb kcetngla{ jlgngklnh lg{lqlcg{ ylhh `nza c k`ngia `alr

    ctarnlcg{ ngb {arzlka{ ngb rng{jcre lgc ongmlgi {arzlka kagra{' RCT Rnp {|{ae ra~qlra{

    1 44444 ongmlgi {arzlka kagra{ ({aa tnia gqeoar >:,' R`a hc{{ cj aethc|eag lg `a np

    kchhaklcg batnreag{ ngb TB[ ylhh oa kcetag{nab o| engljchb aethc|eag iagarnlcg

    `rcqi` hnria gqeoar cj ongmlgi {arzlka kagra{ `qiah| aptngbab `anh` knra abqknlcg

    lgjrn{rqkqra nirc lrrlinlcg ngb c`ar {akcr{' [aa tnia >: c >' Hlelab tntar kqrragk| n n hcy bagcelgnlcg znhqa ylhh ag{qra `a cnh aplgklcg cj jnma

    kqrragk|'

    ?' Ohnkm ecga| ylhh nh{c eaa `a {nea jna n{ tactha ylhh oa jcrkab c rng{jar ecga| jrce

    cga nkkcqg c ngc`ar nkkcqg `rcqi` k`a~qa baol knrb cr cghlga rng{jar{ jcr nhh

    rng{nklcg{ jcr tar{cgnh cr oq{lga{{ tqrtc{a'

    ;' _ng{ce{ apcrlcg{ orloa{ rcooarla{ ngb nhh lhhainh nklzlla{ ylhh kcea c ng agb n{ `qia

    apk`ngia cj kqrragk| n `li` bagcelgnlcg znhqa{ ylhh gc oa tc{{loha oaknq{a azar|

    lgblzlbqnh{ anrglgi{ cr {nzlgi{ ylhh oa lg enarlnhl{ab jcre lg `l{#`ar E[N cr [[N{'

    2' R`ara ylhh oa gc {kcta jcr apk`ngia cj ecga| lg t`|{lknh jcre' Nhh ecga| rng{jar{ ylhh oa

    nkkcqgab ngb `l{ ahlelgna{ np azn{lcg' Azar| nkkcqg ylhh oa ng lgzchqgnr| nptn|lgi

    nkkcqg' R`q{ np kchhaklcg ngb np kcethlngka ylhh lgznrlnoh| oakcea cga ngb {nea' R`ara

    ylhh oa gc np kchhaklcg kc{ jcr Iczargeag ngb np kcethlngka kc{ jcr kllvag{'

    1' Qgbar tra{ag np {|{ae lj hnria gqeoar cj tar{cg{ yng{ c kngkah `alr batc{l{ ngb

    yl`brny `alr ecga| jrce ongm{ n cgka jcr cga ran{cg cr c`ar `a ecga| nznlhnoha yl`

    `a ongm{ ylhh gc oa {qjjlklag c bl{oqr{a c nhh tar{cg{ n cgka knq{lgi tnglk ngb k`nc{' Oq

    qgbar RCT np {|{ae `a nocza {kagnrlc ylhh gazar ckkqr qgbar ng| klrkqe{ngka{ oaknq{a

    ng| tar{cg kng oa nhhcyab c yl`brnylgi cgh| n enpleqe cj 1444 tar ecg` jrce `l{ Enlg

    [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, ngb y`nazar ecga| nznlhnoha lg nhh `l{ [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ ylhh `nza

    c oa rng{jarrab jrce `c{a nkkcqg{ `rcqi` k`a~qa baol knrb{ cr ga ongmlgi c c`ar

    tar{cg{ nkkcqg y`lha oq|lgi {`nra{( hngb{( jhn{( thc{( ng| kceecbl|( iccb{( {arzlka cr

    ng|`lgi ah{a cr lg kn{a lj `a yng{ c hagb ecga| c c`ar tar{cg{' @a#{`a kng rng{jar nhh

    `l{#`ar ecga| jrce `l{#`ar tnrlkqhnr E[N cr [[N c ngc`ar [[N{ cj `l{#`ar cyg nkkcqg o|

    hc{lgi 2! Rct np lg `l{ trcka{{

    Qgbar trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae ank` tar{cg ylhh oa nhhcyab c yl`brny n enpleqe cj _{'

    1444 tar ecg` jrce {nzlgi{ cr anrglgi{ lg `l{#`ar Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg cgh|'

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    23/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?;

    R`a ecg`h| kn{` yl`brnynh hlel jcr ank` kllvag kng oa knhkqhnab n{ jchhcy{= % R`a znhqa cj

    `a ]IBT znhqa cj `n kcqgr| (aptcr{ letcr{,U blzlbab o| ;:1' Than{a gc `n ank`

    kllvag nocza nia cj >1 |anr{ ylhh `nza cgh| cga Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N,' R`a ecg`h|

    yl`brnynh hlel (kn{` lg t`|{lknh jcre, ylhh znr| jrce kcqgr| c kcqgr|'

    R`l{ noha {`cy{ `a {qiia{ab ecg`h| yl`brnynh hlel{ jcr Lgbln'

    IBT ?444 OA

    lg krcra{

    Rcnh

    tctqhnlcg

    cj kcqgr|

    Nttrcplena' Gc cj

    E[N{ czar>1|anr{,'

    Lg krcra{

    Tar kntln lgkcea#

    E[N#nggqe

    Lg _{'

    Tar kntln

    lgkcea lg _{'

    #E[N#ecg`

    101:1:< >>: krcra{ >44 101:1 2004

    R`a ecg`h| yl`brnynh hlel cj _{' 1444 kng oa lgkran{ab n oqbia lea batagblgi qtcg

    `a IBT znhqa'

    Qgbar trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae kqrragk| lg ?4 >4 1 ngb ? rqtaa gca{ gaabab c oa tq lgklrkqhnlcg ylhh oa nttrcplenah| znhqab n _{' ?4444krcra{' Oa{lba{ `a{a kqrragk| gca{ >

    ? 1 rqtaa kclg{ ylhh nh{c oa lg klrkqhnlcg n{ lg tra{ag {|{ae'

    R`a hlelab tntar kqrragk| `n gaab{ c oa tq lg klrkqhnlcg en| znr| jrce kcqgr| c

    kcqgr| batagblgi qtcg IBT znhqa cj `n kcqgr|'

    R`a znhqa cj `a hlelab tntar kqrragk| {`cqhb oa a~qnh c `a znhqa cj `a ]IBT cj `n

    kcqgr| (aptcr{ letcr{,U blzlbab o| ;:1' (Lj IBT 5 trlzna kcg{qetlcg - irc{{

    lgza{eag -iczargeag {tagblgi - Aptcr{ letcr{,

    Lg krcra{

    IBT ?444

    OA lg krcra{

    Nirlkqhqra

    {akcr >9!

    [arzlka {akcr

    11';!

    Lgbq{rlnh

    {akcr ?9'9!

    IBT tar bn|

    101:1:< :???:< >:421

    [cqrka6 jlgelg'glk'lg

    Cq cj cnh IBT znhqa cj _{'>:421krcra{ tar bn| ng nzarnia ;4! znhqa cj IBT

    (1444krcra{, tar bn| ylhh oa ocqi` o| kn{` n jlr{ {nia' Ec{ trconoh| `a raenlglgi {akcgb

    ngb `lrb {nia{ ngb ec{ trconoh| 94! cj IBT (nzarnia `raa {nia{, ylhh oa rng{nkab

    `rcqi` k`a~qa baol knrb cr cghlga kn{` rng{jar{' Qgbar trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae `chblgi

    ngb knrr|lgi cj kn{` cj ecra `ng _{' ;4444 czar hcgi bl{ngka{ gaab c oa onggab' _anlhar{

    ta| {`ct cygar{ ngb c`ar oq{lga{{eag {`cqhb batc{l `alr {nha trckaab{ rakalzab lg kn{`

    lg `a ganra{ ongm{ azar| bn|' R`arajcra ec{ cj `a kqrragk| {`nhh oa klrkqhnab hcknhh|'

    ?449%40 jliqra{ [cqrka6 rol'cri'lg rqtaa{ krcra{

    _{'?4 _{'>4 _{'1 _{'? kclg{ Rcnh

    znhqa_{'1 _{'? _{'>

    2>40 >> :;: ;?2< >2 ?;110

    R`a nocza znhqab kqrragk| (kclg{ ngb gca{, tra{agh| lg klrkqhnlcg ylhh ec{ trconoh| oa

    {qjjlklag jcr `a trctc{ab RCT Rnp {|{ae lg `a kn{a cj Lgbln'

    R`a tntar ecga| gaabab c oa tq lg klrkqhnlcg5 `a znhqa cj IBT P >4! cj {hno rna (2!,

    blzlbab o| >445 znhqa cj IBT P 4'2 #>44' Tntar ecga| ylhh oa klrkqhnab lg hcy zchqea{ cgh| n

    trlenr| hazah lg `a engqjnkqrar banhar ngb ranlhar ngb kcg{qear k`nlg'

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    24/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?2

    R`a czarnhh tc{{loha kcetcgag cj RCT Rnp cg iccb{#{arzlka{ l{ {`cyg lg `a jchhcylgi

    noha{' R`a tc{{loha RCT Rnp cg ecga| jhcy{ lg kcg{qear ranlhar banhar engqjnkqrar

    k`nlg'Rnoha Gc'>6 RCT Rnp cg @li` znhqab Iccb{#[arzlka{ (Eablqe ngb @anz|, lgbq{rla{

    [nia cj

    {qtth| k`nlg

    (ecga|

    jhcy,

    Jrce Kcg{qear c

    Banhar(trlka,

    (k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#ga rng{jar

    Kcg{qear

    _anlhar(kceel{{lcg,

    Jrce Banhar c

    Engqjnkqrar(k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#ga rng{jar,

    Jrce

    Engqjnkqrar c

    _ny enarlnh{

    Eng tcyar

    ak(k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#ga rng{jar,

    RCT Rnp5>?! 2! 2! 2!

    Rnoha Gc' ?6 RCT Rnp cg Hcy trlkab iccb{#trcbqk{ ([enhh {knha ngb kcnia

    lgbq{rla{,

    [nia cj

    {qtth| k`nlg

    (ecga| jhcy,

    Jrce Kcg{qear c

    _anlhar(k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#ga rng{jar,

    (kn{`,

    Jrce _anlhar c

    Engqjnkqrar(k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#ga rng{jar,

    Jrce

    Engqjnkqrar c

    _ny enarlnh{

    Eng tcyar

    ak(k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#ga rng{jar,

    Rcnh RCT

    Rnp50!glh 2! 2!

    Rnoha Gc'; RCT Rnp cg hcy trlkab iccb{#trcbqk{#nrlkha{ ({enhh {knha lgbq{rla{,

    y`ag enrmaab n [na ngb Gnlcgnh hazah'

    [nia cj

    {qtth|

    k`nlg

    (Ecga|

    jhcy{,

    Kcg{qea

    r

    _anlhar

    (Kn{`,

    _anlhar

    Banhar(k`a~qa#ba

    ol knrb#ga

    rng{jar,

    Banhar

    Engqjnkqrar(k`a~qa#ba

    ol knrb#ga rng{jar,

    Engqjnkqrar

    _ny enarlnh{

    Eng tcyar

    ak'(k`a~qa#bao

    l knrb#ga

    rng{jar,

    Rcnh5>?

    ! ct np

    glh 2! 2! 2!

    Rnoha Gc' 2 RCT Rnp cg Nirlkqhqra Trcbqka jrce {enhh ngb enrilgnh jnrear{[nia cj {qtth| k`nlg jrce Kcg{qear c Jrce Jnrear c Jnre

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    25/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?1

    (ecga| jhcy{, Jnrear{(kn{`, lgtq{(kn{`,

    Rcnh RCT Rnp54 glh glh

    Rnoha GC'16 RCT Rnp cg Nirlkqhqra Trcbqka jrce {ael eablqe ngb eablqe jnrear{

    (hcknh ngb bl{rlk hazah kcg{qetlcg,

    [nia cj {qtth|

    k`nlg (Ecga| jhcy,

    Jrce Kcg{qear c

    Zagbcr{

    (kn{`,

    Jrce Zagbcr{ c

    Jnrear{

    (kn{`,

    Jnrear{ c Jnre

    lgtq{ Eng tcyar

    ak(k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#ga rng{jar,

    Rcnh RCT Rnp52! glh glh 2!

    Rnoha Gc' :6 RCT Rnp cg Nirlkqhqra Trcbqka jrce hnria Jnrear{ ([na Gnlcgnh hazah

    kcg{qetlcg ngb aptcr{,

    [nia cj

    {qtth|

    k`nlg(ecga|

    jhcy,

    Kcg{qear

    c ranlhar{

    (kn{`,

    Jrce _anlhar{

    c

    Rrnbar{(baol

    knrb#ga

    rng{jar,

    jrce Rrnbar{ c

    Jnrear{(k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#ga rng{jar,

    Jrce Jnrear c

    Jnre lgtq{ eng

    tcyar

    ak(k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#ga rng{jar,

    Rct np5>? glh 2! 2! 2!

    Rnoha gc6 9 RCT Rnp cg {enhh `cah{ ecah{ ra{nqrng{ ngb b`non{ ak

    Kq{cear{ c cygar{

    (kn{`,

    cygar{ c irckarla{

    {nhnrla{ ngb c`ar lgtq{

    Rcnh RCT Rnp cg ecga|

    jhcy{

    Glh 2!(k`a~qa#baol knrb#ga

    rng{jar,

    2!

    Rnoha gc6 0 RCT Rnp cg {nr `cah{

    jrce Kq{cear{ c

    cygar{

    (baol knrb#ga rng{jar,

    Jrce cygar{ c irckarla{

    {nhnrla{ ngb c`ar lgtq

    kc{{(k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#ga rng{jar,

    Rcnh RCT Rnp cg ecga|

    jhcy{

    RCT Rnp52! RCT Rnp52! 0!

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    26/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?:

    Rnoha gc6 < RCT Rnp cg rqgglgi cj {k`cch{ ngb kchhaia{ n hcyar jaa{

    Jrce Tnrag{ c

    engniaeag

    (kn{`,

    Engniaeag c cynrb{

    {nhnrla{ enarlnh{ ngb c`arlgtq kc{{(k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#ga rng{jar#,

    Rcnh RCT Rnp cg ecga|

    jhcy{

    Glh RCT Rnp52! 2!

    Rnoha gc6 >4 RCT Rnp cg rqgglgi cj {k`cch{ kchhaia{ qglzar{lla{ ngb c`ar

    lg{lqlcg{ n `li`ar jaa{ ngb bcgnlcg{'

    tnrag{ engniaeag

    (k`a~qa#baol knrb#ga

    rng{jar,

    engniaeag {nhnrla{ enarlnh{ ngb

    c`ar lgtq kc{{(k`a~qa#baol knrb#ga

    rng{jar,

    Rcnh RCT

    Rnp cg

    ecga| jhcy

    RCT Rnp52! RCT Rnp52! 0!

    R`a ajjak cj RCT Rnp cg jlhe lgbq{r|

    Rnoha gc6 >>

    zlayar c

    `anra#ap`lolar

    ap`lolar#`anra

    c bl{rloqcr

    bl{rloqcr c

    trcbqkar

    Jrce trcbqkar c

    trcbqklcg#aptagblqra#{nhnrla{

    Rcnh RCT

    np

    ( Lj, KN[@ Cghlga rng{jar

    2!

    Cghlga

    rng{jar52!

    Cghlga rng{jar52! >?!

    Baol knrb52! 2! 2! 2! >:!

    Ntnr jrce `a RCT Rnp `ara ylhh oa gc agarnlgeag np cg jlhe lgbq{r|' Nh{c `ara ylhh

    oa gc c`ar npa{ `n nra oalgi tra{agh| letc{ab cg rny jlhe knearn{ ngb nhh c`ar

    a~qlteag{ ngb {arzlka npa{ lg `a aglra trcbqklcg {nia'

    Rnoha gc6 >? RCT Rnp cg _anh a{na {akcr

    Jrce Oq|ar c

    bazahctar#oqlhbar(k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#ga rng{jar

    Oqlhbar#bazahctar c

    rny enarlnh{ ngb c`ar

    lgtq kc{{(k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#ga rng{jar

    Rcnh RCT Rnp cg ecga|

    jhcy{

    RCT Rnp52! RCT Rnp52! 0!

    Rnoha gc6 >; RCT Rnp cg hcy trlkab lae{#iccb{#nrlkha{#jrql{#abloha{ ak

    kcg{qear c {raa

    zagbcr#{ahhar#`nymar(kn{`,

    Zagbcr#{ahhar#`nymar c

    ranlhar#y`cha{nhar#lgtq{(kn{`,

    Rcnh RCT Rnp cg ecga|

    jhcy{

    RCT Rnp5glh RCT Rnp5glh glh

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    27/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?9

    Ajjak cj RCT Rnp {|{ae cg lgrnbn| rnblgi Lg `a tra{ag {|{ae [akqrlla{Rrng{nklcg Rnp ([RR, cg [nha cj a~ql| {`nra{ qgl{ cj a~ql| crlagab eqqnh jqgb{ lg

    lgrnbn| rnblgi 5'4?!

    Rnoha6 >2 apnetha Jliqra{ lg _qtaa{'

    Tra{ag

    {|{ae

    Oq|lgi

    znhqa

    >44444

    [ahhlgi

    znhqa

    444-;444-245>424

    Jrce `a nocza noha l l{ co{arzab `n `ara l{ gc bl{kargloha znrlnlcg lg oc` `a

    {|{ae{'

    Ajjak cj RCT Rnp {|{ae cg oq|lgi cj {`nra{

    Lg `a tra{ag {|{ae [akqrlla{ Rrng{nklcg Rnp ([RR, cg tqrk`n{a cr {nha cj a~ql|

    {`nra{ ngb rahnab eqqnh jqgb{54'>4!

    Rnoha gc6 >1 apnetha Jliqra{ lg _qtaa{

    tra{ag {|{ae Znhqa cj

    {`nra{5>44444

    [RR5'>!cj znhqa5>44 Rcnh kc{ cj

    {`nra{5>44>44

    RCT Rnp {|{ae Znhqa cj

    {`nra{5>44444

    RCT Rnp52!cj rng{jarrab

    necqg52444

    Rcnh znhqa cj

    {`nra{5>42444

    F' Ajjak cj RCT Rnp cg tarchaqe trcbqk{ bla{ah tarch HTI marc{aga NRJ

    olqeag hqorlkng{ ak

    Rnoha gc6 >:

    Kcg{qear

    banhar#jlhhlgi {nlcg

    Banhar

    rajlgarla{(k`a~qa#baol

    knrb#cghlga rng{jar,

    rajlgarla{ {nhnrla{#rny

    enarlnh{#enlgagngka

    ak'( Cghlga rng{jar,

    Rcnh RCT

    Rnp

    N, kn{` RCT Rnp52! RCT Rnp52! 0!O,Baol knrb 2! RCT Rnp5 2! RCT RNP5 2! >?!

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    28/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?0

    R`a ajjak cj RCT Rnp cg ratn|eag cj hcng{ qt c _[' >4hnm`{'

    _atn|eag

    tarlcb

    Lgara{ tar

    nggqe

    Rcnh

    lgara{ !

    RCT Rnp Rcnh

    ratn|eag !

    Nzarnia!

    > |anr ?! ?! 2! :! :!

    ? |anr{ ?! ?-?52! 2! 0! 2!

    ; |anr{ ?! ?p;5:! 2! >4! ;';;!

    2 |anr{ ?! ?p250! 2! >?! ;!

    RCT Rnp kng oa nzclbab o| ratn|lgi hcng necqg blrakh| jrce `a {cqrka cj n tar{cg{ lgkcea

    c `a ongm nkkcqg cr ecga| hagbar{ nkkcqg jrce y`ce `a hcng `n{ oaag nmag' R`a

    nzarnia lgara{ ! ylhh oa ha{{ cg hcng{ nmag czar hcgiar tarlcb'

    Than{a gca `n `a cnh RCT Rnp cg nhh kceecblla{#{arzlka{ {`cyg nocza lg nhh

    noha{ ylhh oa nkqnhh| ha{{' R`a ran{cg jcr `l{ l{ `n `a nkqnh RCT Rnp cg nhh

    kceecblla{#{arzlka{ 5 2! cj tqrk`n{a trlka n ranlhar - 2! cj (banhar trlka ranlhar{

    trcjl, - 2! cj (engqjnkqrar trlkabanhar{ trcjl engqjnkqrar trcjl,' [c `a np ylhh oa

    cgh| cg trlka cj `a kceecbl|#trlka ngb ranlhar{ trcjl cgh| apkhqblgi `a banhar ngb

    engqjnkqrar{ trcjl{'

    Oq lg `a tra{ag akcgcelk {|{ae `a cnh np kcetcgag cj ng| kceecbl|#{arzlka

    nh{c lgkhqba{ `a np cg `a ranlhar{( banhar{ ngb engqjnkqrar{ trcjl{' @agka `akcg{qear l{ tn|lgi np gc cgh| cg `a trlka cj `a kceecbl|#{arzlka oq nh{c cg `a cnh

    trcjl{ cj nhh `a thn|ar{ lg `a enrma' [c `a np l{ oalgi hazlab cg `a trlka cj `a

    kceecbl|#{arzlka ngb nhh `a trcjl{ cj ranlhar banhar ngb engqjnkqrar kceolgab

    cia`ar' Lg hlarnh {ag{a `a kc{ cj ng| kceecbl|#{arzlka lgkhqba{ `a engqjnkqrlgi kc{

    `a cnh trcjl{ `a lgara{ kcetcgag `a cnh np kcetcgag ngb kcrrqtlcg

    kcetcgag' R`a hcy lgara{ rna{ `a hcya{ np rna{ gc kcrrqtlcg kcetcgag lg RCT Rnp

    {|{ae ylhh ag{qra `a nznlhnolhl| cj kceecblla{#{arzlka{ n eqk` rabqkab trlka{ `ng lg

    `a tra{ag {|{ae'

    R`a {hno rna (2!, cg nhh ecga| rng{jar{ l{ {nea ngb jlpab ngb ylhh oa nqcenlknhh|

    babqkab jrce nhh nkkcqg{ ctarnab o| ongm{ ngb rng{jarrab c `a [na ngb Kagra{

    kceolgab nkkcqg ([NKKN,' R`a c`ar np Kagrnh Apkl{a bq| ntnr jrce RCT np {`cqhb oa

    letc{ab `anzlh| cg `raa lae{%% klinraa{ hl~qcr ngb knr{ {c n{ c bl{kcqrnia tactha jrce

    {ecmlgi nhkc`ch kcg{qetlcg ngb c bakcgia{ rcnb{ lg kcqgrla{ y`ara tctqhnlcg bag{l|

    l{ zar| `li`'

    Yl` hcy np rna{ lg `a RCT Rnp {|{ae y`ag kcetnrab yl` tra{ag npnlcg

    {|{ae `a iczargeag ylhh `nza `a enpleqe engcaqzrnolhl| lg cnh bakcgrchhlgi cj `a

    ranlh trlka{ cj tarch ngb bla{ah y`lha nhliglgi bcea{lk trlka{ yl` ihconh cga{' Azag yl`

    cnh bakcgrch cj `a trlka{ cj tarch ngb bla{ah `a trlka{ ylhh oa n tnr cr oahcy `a

    tra{ag trlka{ cnhh| yltlgi cq `a qgbar rakczarla{ cj `a enfcr tqohlk {akcr clh

    kcetngla{ ngb {qo{nglnhh| bakran{lgi `a hazah cj iczargeag {qo{lbla{'

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    29/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ?4 hnm`{'

    Nhh jliqra{ nra nttrcplenab

    Gqeoar cj Ongm orngk`a{#{arzlka kagra{ ra~qlrab 144444

    Gqeoar cj Aethc|aa{ ra~qlrab (>p;, >144444

    N6 Ctarnlgi kc{ tar |anr6 _qtaa{ lg krcra{

    Rnoha %N

    >144444 aethc|aa{ {nhnrla{ (_{ >1444 tar ecg` jcr ank` aethc|aa, jcr `a

    |anr }>144444Gc{' p >1444_{' p >?ecg`{u?9444

    N{ ec{ cj `a ongm orngk`a{#{arzlka kagra{ ylhh oa a{nohl{`ab Lg rqrnh nran{

    zlhhnia{ eqglkltnhlla{ cyg{`lt{ kchcgla{ nzarnia rag tar orngk` ylhh oa

    nrcqgb _{ >4444 tar ecg` Rcnh kc{ cj rag tar nggqe }144444orngk`a{ p

    >4444 _{' p >?ecg`{u

    :444

    ahakrlkl| olhh tar nggqe }144444orngk`a{ p >4444 _{' p >?ecg`{u :444

    [nlcgnr| k`nria{ tar nggqe }144444orngk`a{ p >4444 _{' p >?ecg`{u :444

    Enlgagngka lgkh' lgarga }144444orngk`a{ p >4444 _{' p >?ecg`{u :444

    Rcnh Ctarnlgi Kc{ tar \anr 1>444

    Qgbar RCT np {|{ae nhh lgara{ rna{ ylhh oa raeczab cg Rlea batc{l{ ngb baengb

    batc{l{'

    Njar a{nohl{`lgi {qjjlklag gqeoar cj ongm{#{arzlka kagra{ o| `a Iczargeag yl` `a `aht

    cj trlzna {akcr ongm{ ngb jlgngklnh lg{lqlcg{ nhh `a kllvag{ cj Lgbln gaab c oa n{mab c

    batc{l nhh `a kqrragk| gca{ cj >444 144 >44 ngb 14 rqtaa{ apkat ?4 >4 1 ? rqtaa

    gca{#kclg{ nznlhnoha yl` `ae lg `a{a ongm{ lg `alr Enlg [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg (E[N, cr [qo

    [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ ([[N, yl`lg n {ltqhnab lea cj ;4 bn|{' Nhh tra{agh| rqg {nzlgi{ nkkcqg{ngb kqrrag nkkcqg{ ycqhb oa kcgzarab lg c [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg{ ([[N{, yl` `a {nea

    nkkcqg gqeoar{ ngb kng oa ctarnab jrce `a {nea ongm{' [lelhnrh| tactha y`c `nza

    ecga| lg `a jlpab batc{l{ ngb JB_{ ylhh `nza c rng{jar nhh `alr ecga| jrce `a{a jlpab

    batc{l{ ngb JB_{ c `alr ra{taklza gayh| ilzag E[N{ cr gayh| ctagab#kcgzarab [[N{

    yl`lg `a {nea {ltqhnab tarlcb cj ;4 bn|{' Tactha ylhh `nza c {tagb apnkh| `a necqg

    `a| anrgab#{nzab ngb gc n tagg| ecra (ic o| zlrqa cj lgara{ {c jnr, n{ ngb y`ag ngb lg

    y`nazar enggar `a| yng' Than{a {aa tnia 2 c :' Apkat `a elgl{kqha tnr cj `a ecga| lg

    t`|{lknh jcre cj _{' ?4 ngb _{' >4 cq{lba `a {|{ae `a aglra ecga| cj tactha ngb

    Iczargeag ylhh oa lg{lba `a RCT Rnp {|{ae lg `a ongm{ lg blilnh#gqearlknh znhqa lg `raa

    |ta{ cj nkkcqg{ E[N [[N KNG' R`a `qia ecga| nznlhnoha yl` `a ongm{ ylhh oa hag n hcylgara{ rna{' R`a trlea hagblgi rna{ ylhh oa ?! {letha lgara{ tar nggqe qt c _{' >4

    44444 ngb cgh| 2! {letha lgara{ tar nggqe cg necqg{ nocza _{' >4 44444'

  • 8/3/2019 Repulse the Global Economic Recession

    30/42

    Nhh Akcgcelk lhh{ cga tlhh

    RCT Rnp {|{ae

    Than{a zl{l yyy'zlfn|nmrq{`gnznren'kce Tnia ;4

    O6 Lgkcea{ `rcqi` Lgara{{ qgbar RCT np {|{ae _qtaa{ lg krcra{

    Nhh jliqra{ barlzab jrce ?44< nttrcplena a{lena{

    Rcnh are batc{l{ cj nhh ongm{ (a{lenab, ?01190444 144 >44 ngb 14 rqtaa gca{

    nznlhnoha yl` tactha ylhh `nza c oa batc{lab lg `alr Enlg [nzlgi{

    Nkkcqg (E[N, cr [qo [nzlgi{ Nkkcqg ([[N,' Nhh gca{ apkat ? 1 >4

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    31/42

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