REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL … · 3. IGC COUNCIL MEETING The 41st session of the International Grains Council was held on Monday, 8 June 2015 at the East Wintergarden,

1.

REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL CONFERENCE AND

COUNCIL MEETINGS

8 & 9 JUNE 2015, LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM

by Dirk Kok

1. INTRODUCTION

The 24th International Grains Council Grain Conference was held on Tuesday, 9 June 2015 at the

Grosvenor House Hotel, Park Lane, London.

The theme of the Conference was “Building on success, responding to challenges”.

The Conference was attended by approximately 258 delegates from 44 countries.

The Conference programme featured 12 speakers from 11 countries.

The Conference was preceded with the meeting on ocean freights and the 41st Session of the

International Grains Council which was held on Monday, 8 June 2015 at the East Wintergarden,

Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London.

2. OCEAN FREIGHT MEETING

The Ocean Freight Meeting was held on Monday, 8 June 2015 at the East Wintergarden, Bank

Street, Canary Wharf, London.

The Baltic Exchange Indices for 4 June 2015 versus 10 March 2015 reflected the following:

BDI (Baltic Dry Index) 603/568

(BDI is a composite of the Baltic Capesize, Panamax, Handysize and Supramax indices.)

BCI (Capesize) 818/468

BPI (Panamax) 570/590

BSI (Supramax) 654/573

BHSI (Handysize) 333/356

2.

The IGC Freight Adviser, Mr Mike Wood gave an update on the global freight market situation at the

ocean freight meeting as follows:

2.1 The Capesize Market

Rates have improved but remain poor and reduced demand from China coupled with a

significant surplus of tonnage suggests that early sustained firming cannot be anticipated.

It is estimated that China’s steel production will continue to grow until 2020 and producers of

ore plan to increase production to satisfy demand.

China’s steel production started to increase in April 2015 and ship owners anticipate that the

continuing production boom will support the market even when demand remains slack.

2.2 The Panamax Market

There has been some stronger demand for this type over the last few months notably from

the US Gulf and Brazil/Argentina but rates have barely improved as the over-supply of

tonnage quickly absorbs the short peaks of demand and rates overall have remained flat.

Ship owners are encouraged with reasonable levels of activity in all areas, but the number

of vessels available seems sufficient to dampen any freight excitement.

2.3 The Handysize and Supramax Markets

There has been some reasonable peaks in demand but as with the Panamax market any

peak is quickly flattened by additional tonnage appearing on the market.

2.4 New building, second hand and demolition markets

New building orders are at the lowest level for 20 years, a 98 percent reduction from the peak

in December 2007.

There has been more activity in the second hand market with some ship owners unable to

resist some low prices.

3.

The demolition market has stalled with Pakistan and Bangladesh yards full and India

suffering from a weakening rupee and slack domestic demand. Turkey’s yards are active

and demand is steady but prices are lower than in the Indian sub-continent.

2.5 Container shipping

Despite low TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) freights, rates have increased and is currently

68 percent above the average for 2014. The higher rate is a result of a shortage of sub-

Panamax vessels and a number of vessels in lay-up.

2.6 Bunker prices

Supply remains good and demand is relatively low and no major changes in prices are

expected.

3. IGC COUNCIL MEETING

The 41st session of the International Grains Council was held on Monday, 8 June 2015 at the

East Wintergarden, Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London. The Secretariat reported to

members on the 2014/2015 situation and outlook for the global grains and oilseeds markets,

changes in national policies and administrative matters.

3.1 Grains, rice and oilseeds situation and outlook

The IGC Secretariat gave a detailed overview on the current situation and outlook for grains,

rice and oilseeds. (The complete report is attached as

3.1.1 Total grains: Supply and demand summary

An overview of total grains is as follows:

At 1 968 million tons, world total grains production in 2015/16 is projected to be 2% lower

year on year.

4.

A fractional year on year increase in grains consumption is expected and while carryover

stocks are forecast to fall, they are seen remaining at a high level.

A 3% drop in world grains trade is forecast in 2015/16, but will be still the third highest

volume ever.

Global rice stocks are expected to tighten further in 2015/16, on a steep drop in major

exporters’ inventories to an eight year low.

World soya bean carryovers in 2015/16 are anticipated to rise by 9% to a fresh high, led

by accumulation in the US. Trade is seen at a new peak, underpinned by China's growing

needs.

The total grains supply and demand summary is set out in Table 1.

Table 1: Total grains: Supply and demand summary

2012/13 2013/14

(est.)

2014/15

(f/cast)

2015/16

(proj.)

y/y

change

million tons

Opening stocks 360 337 405 440 +8.5%

Production 1 795 2 003 2 011 1 968 -2.1%

Total supply 2 155 2 340 2 416 2 408 -0.4%

Total use 1 818 1 935 1 977 1 981 +0.2%

of which: Food 631 644 653 660 +1.1%

Feed 776 845 877 872 -0.5%

Industrial 299 316 322 326 +1.2%

Closing stocks 337 405 440 426 -3.0%

Major exporters a) 99 122 148 136 -8.6%

Trade (Jul/Jun) 271 310 317 308 -2.6%

a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, USA

Source: IGC Grain Market Report, 28 May 2015

3.1.2 Wheat

The world wheat supply and demand outlook are as follows:

At 715 million tons, world wheat production in 2015/16 is forecast to be down by 1% from

the previous year's record.

A small rise in global consumption is expected in 2015/16, with higher food use partly

offset by lower feeding.

5.

Stocks are expected to stay close to 200 million tons at the end of 2015/16.

Trade is seen remaining at a high level in 2015/16, at 149 million tons, only modestly

lower year on year.

The world wheat supply and demand summary is set out in Table 2.

Table 2: Wheat supply and demand summary

2012/13 2013/14

(est.)

2014/15

(f/cast)

2015/16

(proj.)

y/y

change

million tons

Opening stocks 192 171 189 200 +5.8%

Production 655 713 721 715 -0.9%

Total supply 848 884 910 915 +0.5%

Total use 677 696 710 715 +0.7%

of which: Food 462 472 478 484 +1.2%

Feed 134 132 142 141 -0.9%

Industrial 21 22 22 22 +0.9%

Closing stocks 171 189 200 200 -0.0%


Trade (Jul/Jun) 142 156 153 149 -2.7%



Outlook for 2015/16

Production

The world production forecast for 2015/16 is estimated at 715 million tons, down by 1% from

the previous year's record but 4% higher than the five-year average. Since the previous Grain

Market Report, there were upward revisions for the EU, the CIS, China and Morocco, but

reduced projections for the US, India and Pakistan. Total harvested area is placed marginally

lower year on year, at 222.8 million ha, still 2% above the five-year average. Increased

plantings in the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) and North America are expected

to nearly compensate for reductions in South America and India. Areas in the EU, China and

Australia are seen largely unchanged year on year.

6.

The production of wheat in selected countries is set out in Table 3.

Table 3: Wheat production in selected countries

2012/13 2013/14

(est.)

2014/15

(f/cast)

2015/16

(proj.)

y/y

change

million tons

Major exporters

EU 131.6 143.1 156.1 150.0 -3.9%

USA 61.8 58.1 55.1 58.2 +5.6%

Russia 37.7 52.1 59.7 55.0 -7.9%

Canada 27.2 37.5 29.3 30.0 +2.5%

Australia 22.9 26.9 23.6 27.0 +14.4%

Ukraine 15.8 22.3 24.8 21.0 -15.2%

Kazakhstan 9.8 13.9 13.0 13.5 +3.9%

Argentina 8.0 9.2 13.9 12.5 -10.1%

Selected other

China 120.8 121.9 126.2 127.0 +0.7%

India 94.9 93.5 95.9 91.0 -5.1%

World total 655.5 713.4 721.4 715.1 -0.9%


The world wheat supply and demand over a 10 year period is set out in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Wheat: World supply and demand



7.

Consumption

A small increase in world wheat consumption is forecast for 2015/16, to 715 million tons, as

growth in human food and industrial demand is expected to be partly offset by declines in

feed and other uses (including waste).

Global use of wheat in feed production is now placed at 141 million tons, still a marginal

contraction year on year owing to likely abundant supplies of alternatives, especially oil

meals.

Stocks

The world carryover is expected to be unchanged year on year at the end of 2015/16, at 200

million tons. While figures for the EU, Russia and India are lower than before, this is more

than outweighed by a sharp increase in the projection for China, with upward revisions too

for the US, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

Trade

A modest year on year fall in global trade is projected for 2015/16 (Jul/Jun), to 149.3 million

tons. The year on year decline is mainly because of likely reduced import needs in Near East

Asia, particularly by Turkey, with weaker demand also expected in the EU and North Africa.

This is seen outweighing anticipated growth in purchases in Far East Asia and sub-Saharan

Africa.

3.1.3 Maize

The supply and demand outlook for maize are as follows:

While 2014/15 southern hemisphere harvests are still some months from completion,

crop prospects in Brazil and Argentina remain mostly favourable and world production

should exceed the previous year's record.

A fourth consecutive year of stock building is expected, with cumulative carryovers now

seen above 200 million tons.

8.

Global 2015/16 plantings are forecast to dip slightly. Assuming yields are in line with

recent averages, output may drop by 4% year on year.

While smaller crops may contain use in some countries, global consumption is forecast

to edge higher. Stocks are projected to decline.

The maize supply and demand summary is set out in Table 4.

Table 4: Maize supply and demand summary

2012/13 2013/14

(est.)

2014/15

(f/cast)

2015/16

(proj.)

y/y

change

million tons

Opening stocks 128 131 177 201 +13.7%

Production 866 993 997 961 -3.6%

Total supply 995 1 124 1 173 1 162 -1.0%

Total use 863 947 973 974 +0.2%

of which: Food 100 104 105 105 +0.3%

Feed 489 550 568 568 +0.0%

Industrial 240 257 263 266 +1.2%

Closing stocks 131 177 201 187 -6.7%


Trade (Jul/Jun) 100 122 119 120 +0.8%

a) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, USA


Outlook for 2015/16

Production

World production in 2015/16 is projected at 961 million tons. Assuming a return to average

yields, total output is predicted to be 4% below the previous season's record, with smaller

harvests expected in the EU, Ukraine and the US. Global harvested area is estimated to be

practically unchanged, at 176.2 million ha.

9.

The production of maize in selected countries is set out in Table 5.

Table 5: Maize production in selected countries

2012/13 2013/14

(est.)

2014/15

(f/cast)

2015/16

(proj.)

y/y

change

million tons

Major exporters

USA 273.2 351.3 361.1 332.0 -8.1%

Brazil 81.5 80.1 78.6 78.0 -0.8%

Ukraine 20.9 30.9 28.5 24.9 -12.5%

Argentina 32.1 33.0 30.0 28.0 -6.7%

Selected other

China 205.6 218.5 215.7 220.0 +2.0%

EU 56.3 64.0 75.4 67.2 -10.8%

India 22.2 24.2 22.0 23.5 +6.8%

South Africa 12.4 15.0 10.4 13.0 +25.0%

World total 866.2 992.6 996.8 960.7 -3.6%


The world maize supply and demand over a 10 year period is set out in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Maize: World supply and demand

a) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US


10.

Consumption

At 974 million tons, world consumption is forecast to edge slightly higher year on year. With

prices expected to remain competitive, feed maize consumption is forecast to expand in

many parts of the world, including in Mexico, China, Brazil, South Korea and Saudi Arabia.

However, with crops in the US and the EU predicted to be smaller, feed maize demand in

these two major consumers is projected to drop back slightly and global use is seen

unchanged year on year, at 568 million tons.

Stocks

World stocks are forecast to tighten in 2015/16, with cumulative inventories seen falling by

7%, to 187 million tons. Exporter stocks are projected at 56.6 million tons, down 17% year

on year.

Trade

Total imports in 2015/16 are forecast to increase slightly compared to the previous twelve

months, marking a third consecutive year of above-average shipments. Global trade is

forecast to rise to 120.3 million tons, up by 1% year on year and only fractionally below the

2013/14 record.

3.1.4 Rice

The supply and demand outlook for rice are as follows:

Global rice output is projected to rise to a new high in 2015/16 on bigger outturns in key

Asian producers, mainly due to larger plantings.

As population growth boosts food demand, especially in Asia, world rice uptake is seen

expanding by 1% year on year, to a fresh record.

Global rice stocks are anticipated to tighten, with inventories in the major exporters

declining by about one-quarter year on year, to an eight-year low.

Trade in 2016 is seen only fractionally lower year on year as competitively priced

availabilities ensure demand from key importers is robust.

11.

The world rice supply and demand summary is set out in Table 6.

Table 6: Rice supply and demand summary

2012/13 2013/14

(est.)

2014/15

(f/cast)

2015/16

(proj.)

y/y

change

million tons

Opening stocks 109 113 112 103 -7.3%

Production 473 477 476 482 +1.2%

Total supply 582 591 587 585 -0.4%

Total use 469 479 484 489 +1.0%

Closing stocks 113 112 103 97 -6.6%


Trade (Jan/Dec) 38 43 42 42 -0.7%

a) India, Pakistan, Thailand, US, Vietnam


The world rice supply and demand over a 10 year period is set out in Figure 3

Figure 3: Rice: World supply and demand

a) India, Pakistan, Thailand, US, Vietnam Source: IGC Grain Market Report, 28 May 2015

Production

Prospects for global rice production in 2015/16 are highly tentative at this stage since they

depend on crop outcomes in some producers where planting and harvesting will not

commence for many months, and in some cases not until 2016. Nevertheless, assuming

beneficial weather, many of Asia's leading producers could bring in larger crops, as world

output rises to a new high of 482 million tons.

12.

The production of rice in selected countries is set out in Table 7.

Table 7: Rice production in selected countries

2012/13 2013/14

(est.)

2014/15

(f/cast)

2015/16

(proj.)

y/y

change

million tons

Major exporters

India 105.2 106.7 102.5 104.0 +1.5%

Vietnam 27.5 28.0 28.1 28.3 +0.4%

Thailand 20.3 20.3 19.0 19.6 +3.3%

USA 6.3 6.1 7.1 7.0 -0.9%

Pakistan 6.0 6.7 6.4 6.5 +1.6%

Selected other

China 143.0 142.5 144.5 145.6 +0.8%

Indonesia 36.8 36.5 37.1 37.5 +0.9%

Bangladesh 33.8 34.4 34.5 35.0 +1.4%

Philippines 11.4 11.9 12.1 12.3 +1.3%

Brazil 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.5 +0.4%

World total 472.7 477.3 475.8 481.7 +1.2%


Consumption

Boosted by rising food demand in Asia and Africa amid population growth, world rice use is

projected to peak at 489 million tons in 2015/16. The total includes marginal increases in

China and India, which together account for about half of global uptake. The feed component

of demand has fallen in recent years and accounts for less than 3% of total consumption.

Reflecting an anticipated drop in Chinese use, consumption for feeding in 2015/16 is seen

declining to 13.0 million tons.

Stocks

Given an expected fall in total supplies against the backdrop of rising consumption, world

end-season inventories in 2015/16 are anticipated to contract for the third consecutive year,

to a six-year low of 96.6 million tons (103.4m). Much of the decline will be reflected in a

significant tightening of major exporters' inventories, notably in Thailand and India.

13.

Trade

International prices for white and parboiled rice remain significantly below year ago levels

and, in some cases, are at their lowest for seven years. This comes despite tightening

supplies in leading exporters, and suggests that global import demand could remain high in

2016. At 41.6 million tons, traded volumes are projected to be only fractionally lower year on

year, amid tentative expectations for another year of above-average deliveries to markets in

sub-Saharan Africa and Far East Asia. Shipments to the latter region are forecast at 12.7

million tons (12.9m), with larger sales to China and Bangladesh likely outweighed by smaller

deliveries to a number of other buyers, including the Philippines. In the case of China, it is

assumed that domestic-international price relationships will again underpin demand for

imports

3.1.5 SOYA BEANS

The supply and demand outlook for soya beans are as follows:

Global soya bean plantings in 2015/16 are projected to increase but, with yields unlikely

to match the previous year's peak, production is expected to fall short of the 2014/15

record.

Further growth in demand for soya bean products is anticipated to boost world use,

especially in leading producers and China.

Global carryovers are seen increasing further on accumulation in the major exporters.

Traded volumes are expected to rise to a high of 123 million tons on bigger shipments

to Asia, mainly China, albeit at a slower pace than in the past.

14.

The world soya bean supply and demand summary is set out in Table 8.

Table 8: Soya bean supply and demand summary

2012/13 2013/14

(est.)

2014/15

(f/cast)

2015/16

(proj.)

y/y

change

million tons

Opening stocks 23 28 31 48 +55.4%

Production 272 285 320 316 -1.1%

Total supply 295 313 350 364 +3.9%

Total use 267 282 303 312 +3.1%

of which: Crush 237 251 267 275 +3.0%

Food 16 16 17 17 +3.3%

Feed 14 17 17 18 +6.2%

Closing stocks 28 31 48 52 +8.8%

Major exporters a) 9 12 29 35 +21.8

Trade (Oct/Sept) 99 113 118 123 +3.5%

a) Argentina, Brazil, USA


The world soya beans supply and demand over a 10 year period is set out in Figure 4

Figure 4: Soya beans: World supply and demand

a) Argentina, Brazil, USA


15.

Production

For 2015/16, global soya bean production is expected to fall, albeit marginally, to 316 million

tons (320m), as potentially larger outturns in Brazil and other small producers only partly

compensate for declines elsewhere, notably in the US, Canada and Argentina. Although

plantings are likely to increase slightly in the world's leading producers, average yields are

unlikely to match the outstanding results achieved in the 2014/15 season.

The production of soya beans in selected countries is set out in Table 9.

Table 9: Soya beans production in selected countries

2012/13 2013/14

(est.)

2014/15

(f/cast)

2015/16

(proj.)

y/y

change

million tons

Major exporters

USA 82.8 91.4 108.0 104.8 -3.0%

Brazil 81.5 86.1 95.1 97.5 +2.5%

Argentina 49.3 53.4 60.0 57.0 -5.0%

Selected other

China 13.1 12.0 12.2 11.9 -2.5%

India 14.7 11.9 10.7 11.2 +4.6%

Paraguay 9.3 8.3 8.6 8.9 +3.8%

Canada 5.1 5.4 6.0 5.5 -9.9%

Uruguay 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 +0.0%

Ukraine 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.0 +8.1%

Bolivia 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.6 -2.2%

World total 272.0 284.9 319.8 316.4 -1.1%


Consumption

World consumption is anticipated to expand further to a new high of 312 million tons (303m)

in 2015/16 on growth in demand for soya bean products. Against the backdrop of ample

supplies, processing is expected to rise in the major exporters in response to growing

domestic and international demand, while China's near-insatiable appetite for soya meal for

use in livestock and aquaculture feeds should boost crush volumes and consumption.

Although representing a relatively small proportion of total global demand, uptake of soya

bean oil in food and industrial sectors will partly support increased processing and uptake.

16.

Stocks

Despite prospects for a slight fall in production, large carry-ins from the previous season are

likely to boost availabilities to a fresh peak in 2015/16. Moreover, with the projected increase

in world supplies set to exceed that of total use, end-season carryovers are seen increasing

to a new high of 51.7 million tons (47.5m)

Trade

Global trade is projected to increase to a new high in 2015/16 (Oct/Sep) on bigger deliveries

to markets in Asia. Reflecting growth in demand for soya meal from the country's huge animal

feed sector, and with a smaller domestic crop expected.

Soya meal

Against the backdrop of expected abundant supplies of soya beans for processing, global

soya meal trade in 2015/16 (Oct/Sep) is tentatively projected to expand by 4% year on year,

to a record of 65.0 million tons.

3.2 NATIONAL POLICIES AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

Some highlights are:

AUSTRALIA: On 23 April 2015, the Minister of Agriculture signed a phyto-sanitary

protocol with China covering wheat and barley shipments. Aimed at boosting trade, the

agreement will run for a minimum of three years.

CANADA: On 26 May 2015, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency reported that, with

immediate effect, it would detain all incoming shipments of maize from India, intended

for use as livestock feed, until tested for aflatoxins. The action follows the detection of

high levels in earlier shipments.

EU: On 24 April 2015, the European Commission announced that it had approved the

import of ten varieties of GM crops, including maize, soya beans and rapeseed/canola,

for human and animal feed consumption, while existing permits for seven GM types were

also extended.

17.

RUSSIA: The government stated on 15 May 2015 that a duty applied to wheat exports

since 1 February 2015 had been removed with immediate effect. The decision was seen

resulting in additional shipments of 1 million tons.

On 26 May 2015, the Ministry of Agriculture reported that it had finalised the

methodology for the calculation of a new wheat export duty, to be introduced 1 July

2015. Under the new scheme, exporters are required to pay RUB1 per ton on wheat

priced up to RUB11 000 per ton (US$218.20) on a fob basis. However, when the price

exceeds RUB11 000 per ton, the duty would be equal to half of the price, less RUB5

500.

BRAZIL: On 23 April 2015, Brazil's largest railway operator, Rumo Logistica SA,

announced plans to invest BRL7.4bn (US$2.46bn) during the next five years to boost

capacity owing to expanding agricultural production and trade. The first phase of the

schedule runs until late 2016 and is centred on investment in new rolling stock and

improvements to the existing railway network, while the second phase, which will run

from 2017 to 2019, includes the construction of port terminals and the duplication of rail

lines.

3.3 ADMINISTRATIVE MATTERS

The Council considered various administrative matters, including an update from the

Secretariat on progress with the economic work programme. For 2015/16, the Council would

continue to focus on its core analytical activities, while enhancing collaboration with other

international organisations, particularly through the AMIS initiative. The GMR Markets and

Trade Plus, a new package to be launched for private subscribers later this year, would offer

detailed insights into world trade flows.

At the Session the Council agreed to extend the Grains Trade Convention, 1995, by a further

two years from 1 July 2015 to 30 June 2017.

The Council took note of statements by observers from the FAO and OECD. It also welcomed

the participation of observers from several non-member countries: Brazil, China, Oman and

Taipei Chinese Separate Customs Territory.

18.

The Council appointed Ms. Carla Seain, Under-Secretary for Political Coordination, Ministry

of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, Argentina, Chairman of the Council for 2015/16 and

Mr. Aly Toure, Permanent Representative of Côte d'Ivoire to International Commodity

Organizations, London as Vice-Chairman.

4. INTERNATIONAL GRAIN COUNCIL CONFERENCE

The 24th International Grains Council Grain Conference was held on Tuesday, 9 June 2015

at the Grosvenor House Hotel, Park Lane, London.

The theme of the Conference was Building on success, responding to challenges.

4.1 Attendance

The Conference was attended by approximately 258 delegates from 44 countries.

The South African delegation who attended the 2015 IGC Conference and Session were

Messrs Dirk Kok (SACOTA) and Thapsana Molepo (Counsellor-Agriculture: South African

Embassy to Belgium and Luxemburg, Mission to the European Union)

4.2 Conference speakers

The Conference programme featured 12 speakers from 11 countries. (Algeria, Denmark,

USA, Italy, Kazakhstan, Sri Lanka, UK, Russia, China, Ukraine and Iraq).

The topics that were discussed at the Conference included Supply and demand outlook,

Environmental issues and their potential market impact, Futures trading exchanges, Trade

and logistics and Focus on the Black Sea region.

.

19.

Mr Abdolreza Abbassian, Trade and Markets Division, FAO, Italy: Secretary, Agricultural

Market Information System (AMIS) presented a World grain market situation and outlook

from an AMIS perspective. Highlights included the following: Good correlation of data made

available by the USDA, IGC and AMIS; the use of GEOGLAM (Group on Earth Observations

Global Agricultural Monitoring Initiative) for crop production projections and weather

forecasting; lack of official figures from China – China however starting to work closer with

AMIS.

The title of Mr Stefan Vogel’s, Head of Agri Commodity Markets Research and Global Sector

Strategist – Grains and Oilseeds, Rabobank, UK presentation was Global markets for

grains and oilseeds: review and prospects.

Mr Lu Jing Bo, Vice Administrator, State Administration of Grain, China provided an overview

of China’s grain situation and macro-control policies.

Mr Bruce Campbell, Director, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and

Food Security, (CCAFS), Denmark made a very informative presentation titled Where will

the next breadbasket be? Vision for Africa. The presentation focused on Climate Smart

Agriculture and projects that have been implemented in Senegal, Kenya and Nigeria;

implementing practices to reduce GHG emissions; and making use of the CYMMIT gene

bank to develop heat and drought tolerant crops

Mr Jeremy Bird, Director General, International Water Management Institute, Sri Lanka

presented the topic, Water resources – future prospects and implications for food

security. The presentation highlighted solutions for a new approach to water security as

water demand increases.

Mr Tim Andriesen, Managing Director and Global Head of Agricultural Commodities, CME

Group, USA made a presentation on the different products available from the CME Group.

20.

Mr Mohamed Belabdi, General Director, Office Algerien Interprofessionnel des Cereales

(OAIC), Algeria presentation focused on Grains production in Algeria: current situation

and outlook. The OAIC’s work is focused on promoting grains farming, improving

productivity and regulating national production, mainly through production support, supply

and regulation of domestic market, collection and storage, grains transport and imports.

Mr Guy Campbell, Chairman, The Baltic Exchange, UK made a presentation on Baltic

Exchange Indices and the shipping market.

Mr Andrey Sizov, Senior President, SovEcon, Russia presented an Outlook for Russia’s

grain production and trade in 2015/16. Production and exports are projected lower as in

2014/15. The impact of the export tax on wheat on domestic prices and exports was also

highlighted in the presentation.

Mr Sergey Feofilov, Director, UkrAgroConsult, Ukraine presentation focused on the Black

Sea grain sector – a drift in local markets. The presentation highlighted the Black Sea

region moving from a grain importer to a grain exporter and subsequently becoming a factor

of unpredictability for the global grain market.

Mr Evgeniy Gan, President, Grain Processors and Bakers Union of Kazakhstan presented

Kazakhstan’s role in ensuring food security in the countries of Central Asia. The

presentation highlighted Kazakhstan’s dominant position in the production and export of

wheat and flour to neighbouring countries Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and

Turkmenistan as well as to China and plans to build railway lines to China and through

neighbouring Turkmenistan to Iran to broaden its export market.

5. CONCLUSION

Attending the IGC Council meeting and the IGC Grains Conference is a valuable international

opportunity to get insight into the global grains arena as well as situations experienced in

selected countries. The conference proved an excellent opportunity for networking and

making contacts.

21.

6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Firstly, I would like to thank the Wheat Forum Steering Committee for nominating me to

attend the 2015 International Grains Council meetings and Grains Conference.

I would also like to extend my gratitude towards the Winter Cereal Trust for the financial

assistance provided.

Also a thank you to Mr Thapsana Molepo (Counsellor-Agriculture: South African Embassy to

Belgium and Luxemburg, Mission to the European Union) for his company.

Lastly, I would like to thank Ms Joanna Lanecki, Department of Agriculture, Forestry and

Fisheries (DAFF) for the administrative arrangements.

Documents

REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL … · 3. IGC COUNCIL MEETING The 41st session of the International Grains Council was held on Monday, 8 June 2015 at the East Wintergarden,