Report into the Meteorological Aspects of the Fires in the Stirling … · 2018. 12. 19. · 2.3 Drought Indices and Fuel ... Appendix 8: DBCA Recorded Weather Briefing Summary Notes

Meteorological Aspects of the Fires in the Stirling Ranges and South Coast of WA May 2018

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Report into the Meteorological

Aspects of the Fires in the Stirling

Ranges and near the South Coast

of Western Australia May 2018

Western Australia Regional Office

Bureau of Meteorology, Perth, WA.

Image courtesy of NASA Worldview 23 May 2018 https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/.


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Contact details Bradley Santos Severe Weather Manager WA Bureau of Meteorology PO Box 1370 West Perth WA 6872 Phone: (08) 9263 2284 Email: [email protected] 20 July 2018. © Commonwealth of Australia 2018 This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced without prior written permission from the Bureau of Meteorology. Refer to www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml for further information.

http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml


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Contents List of Figures ....................................................................................................................... v

List of Tables ....................................................................................................................... vii

1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Terminology and units ............................................................................................. 1

2 Antecedent Conditions ................................................................................................... 3

2.1 Rainfall .................................................................................................................... 3

2.2 Temperature ........................................................................................................... 7

2.3 Drought Indices and Fuel ...................................................................................... 11

3 Methodology used to interpret weather conditions over the fire ground ........................ 17

3.1 Temperature ......................................................................................................... 17

3.2 Relative Humidity .................................................................................................. 17

3.3 Wind speed and direction...................................................................................... 17

3.4 Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) AWS ....... 18

4 Fire Danger Indices and Ratings .................................................................................. 19

5 The Stirling Range Fire and South Coast Fires ............................................................ 21

5.1 Topography of the fire ground ............................................................................... 21

5.2 Weather Conditions .............................................................................................. 22

5.2.1 Wednesday 23 May 2018 .............................................................................. 22

5.2.2 Thursday 24 May 2018 .................................................................................. 23

Fire Danger Indices ...................................................................................................... 38

Northerly Pressure Gradient......................................................................................... 38

5.2.3 Friday 25 May 2018 ....................................................................................... 39

5.2.4 Saturday 26 May 2018 ................................................................................... 47

6 Weather Forecasts ....................................................................................................... 54

6.1 Bureau of Meteorology Fire Weather Services ...................................................... 54

6.2 Routine Fire Weather Forecasts ........................................................................... 54

6.3 Services to DBCA ................................................................................................. 54

6.4 Additional Services to DFES ................................................................................. 55

6.5 Incident Weather Forecasts .................................................................................. 56

Appendix 1: South West Western Australia Fire Weather Subdistricts ................................ 57

Appendix 2: Fire Danger Index Uncertainty ......................................................................... 58

Appendix 3: Weather Station Details ................................................................................... 59

Appendix 4: Detailed Weather Observations ....................................................................... 60

Scott River AWS (DPIRD) (27m ASL).............................................................................. 60

North Walpole AWS (BoM) (73m) .................................................................................... 64

Albany Airport AWS (BoM) (68.4m ASL) ......................................................................... 68

Stirlings North AWS (BoM) (236m ASL) .......................................................................... 73

Stirlings South AWS (DPIRD) (147m ASL) ...................................................................... 77


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Appendix 5: Fire Weather Forecasts ................................................................................... 81

Appendix 6: Incident Weather Forecasts ........................................................................... 105

Appendix 7: Emergency Services Weather Briefings ........................................................ 113

Appendix 8: DBCA Recorded Weather Briefing Summary Notes ...................................... 121

DBCA Briefing Summary – May 19th 2018 ................................................................ 121




DBCA Briefing Summary – May 23rd 2018 ................................................................ 125


Appendix 8: Diagrams of Mountain Waves and Rotors ..................................................... 127

References ....................................................................................................................... 128


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List of Figures Figure 1: Location of BoM (bold) and DPIRD Automatic Weather Stations, Fire Weather Districts (italicised) and final fire shapes for three DBCA managed bushfires. ....................... 2 Figure 2: Rainfall deciles for WA, 1 December 2017 to 28 February 2018. ........................... 3 Figure 3: Rainfall deciles for WA, 1 March to 31 May 2018. .................................................. 4 Figure 4: Rainfall deciles for WA for May 2018...................................................................... 5 Figure 5: Autumn rainfall over southwestern Australia (1900 to 2018). .................................. 6 Figure 6: Winter rainfall over southwestern Australia (1900 to 2017). .................................... 7 Figure 7: Maximum temperature deciles for WA, 1 December 2017 to 28 February 2018. .... 8 Figure 8: Maximum temperature deciles for WA, 1 March to 31 May 2018. ........................... 9 Figure 9: Maximum temperature deciles for WA, May 2018. ............................................... 10 Figure 10: Annual maximum temperature anomaly for southwestern Australia (1910 to 2017). ................................................................................................................................. 11 Figure 11: Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) deciles for WA, May 2018. .............................. 13 Figure 12: SDI observations from Witchcliffe (top) and Pemberton (bottom). ...................... 14 Figure 13: SDI observations from Rocky Gully (top) and Albany Airport (bottom). ............... 15 Figure 14: Upper-layer (top image) and lower-layer (bottom image) soil moisture deciles for WA, May 2018. ................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 15: Himawari-8 night microphysical RGB composite image at 2000 AWST 22 May 2018. ................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 16: Topographical map of the eastern end of the Stirling Range. ............................. 22 Figure 17: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 2000 AWST 23 May. ..................... 23 Figure 18: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 0200 AWST 24 May. ...................... 24 Figure 19: Aerological diagram for Albany Airport at 0700 AWST 24 May 2018. ................. 27 Figure 20: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 0800 AWST 24 May. ...................... 28 Figure 21: GFE Wind Forecast for 0800 AWST 24 May (top image: forecast issued 0500 AWST 20 May, bottom image: forecast issued 1700 AWST 20 May). Colour contours are in knots (see legend). ............................................................................................................. 30 Figure 22: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 1400 AWST 24 May. ...................... 31 Figure 23: GFE Wind Forecast for 1400 AWST 24 May (top image: forecast issued 0500 AWST 20 May, bottom image: forecast issued 1700 AWST 20 May). Colour contours are in knots (see legend). ............................................................................................................. 33 Figure 24: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 2000 AWST 24 May 2018. ............. 34 Figure 25: GFE Wind Forecast for 2000 AWST 24 May (top image: forecast issued 0500 AWST 20 May, bottom image: forecast issued 1700 AWST 20 May). Colour contours are in knots (see legend). ............................................................................................................. 36 Figure 26: Albany radar images showing smoke from a fire over the Stirling Ranges (2200-2330 AWST). ...................................................................................................................... 37 Figure 27: Pressure difference between Kalgoorlie and Perth as an indicator of northerly pressure gradients in May over southwest WA. ................................................................... 38 Figure 28: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 0200 AWST 25 May 2018. ............. 39 Figure 29: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 0800 AWST 25 May 2018. ............. 41 Figure 30: Rainfall analysis for the 24hrs to 9am 25 May 2018. .......................................... 43 Figure 31: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 1400 AWST 25 May 2018. ............. 44 Figure 32: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 2000 AWST 25 May 2018. ............. 45 Figure 33: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 0200 AWST 26 May 2018. ............. 47 Figure 34: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 0800 AWST 26 May 2018. ............. 49 Figure 35: Rainfall analysis for the 24hrs to 9am 26 May 2018. .......................................... 50 Figure 36: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 1400 AWST 26 May 2018. ............. 51 Figure 37: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 2000 AWST 26 May 2018. ............. 52 Figure 38: Map of South West WA Fire Weather Subdistricts. ............................................ 57 Figure 39: Incident Weather Forecast for Stirling Range NP issued at 6:30am AWST 22 May 2018. ................................................................................................................................. 105


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Figure 40: Incident Weather Forecast for Stirling Range NP issued at 6:38am AWST 23 May 2018. ................................................................................................................................. 106 Figure 41: Incident Weather Forecast for Stirling Range NP issued at 6:01am AWST 24 May 2018. ................................................................................................................................. 107 Figure 42: Incident Weather Forecast for Stirling Range NP issued at 3:43pm AWST 24 May 2018. ................................................................................................................................. 109 Figure 43: Incident Weather Forecast for Chester Moonah issued at 12:05pm AWST 24 May 2018. ................................................................................................................................. 111 Figure 44: Incident Weather Forecast for Barrass Road Torndirrup National Park issued at 5:31am AWST 24 May 2018. ............................................................................................ 112 Figure 45: This image shows the development of the typical features often associated with a mountain wave system. ..................................................................................................... 127 Figure 46: Image identifying features associated with mountain waves, including rotors. .. 127


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List of Tables Table 1: Percentage coverage fuel type in fire weather subdistricts. ................................... 19 Table 2: Weather observations at 2000 AWST 23 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds. .............................................................................................................................. 23 Table 3: Weather observations at 0200 AWST 24 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds. .............................................................................................................................. 24 Table 4: Upper winds recorded at Albany Airport at 0700 AWST 24 May 2018. .................. 26 Table 5: Weather observations at 0800 AWST 24 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds. .............................................................................................................................. 28 Table 6: Weather observations at 1400 AWST 24 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds. .............................................................................................................................. 31 Table 7: Weather observations at 2000 AWST 24 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds. .............................................................................................................................. 34 Table 8: Peak Fire Danger Indices recorded on 24 May in the Fire Weather Subdistricts in which the fires occurred. ..................................................................................................... 38 Table 9: Weather observations at 0200 AWST 25 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds. .............................................................................................................................. 39 Table 10: Upper winds recorded at Albany Airport at 0700 AWST 25 May 2018. ................ 40 Table 11: Upper winds recorded at Albany Airport at 1300 AWST 25 May 2018. ................ 41 Table 12: Weather observations at 0800 AWST 25 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds. ........................................................................................................................ 42 Table 13: Rainfall recorded in the 24 hours to 9am 25 May 2018. ....................................... 43 Table 14: Weather observations at 1400 AWST 25 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds. ........................................................................................................................ 44 Table 15: Weather observations at 2000 AWST 25 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds. ........................................................................................................................ 46 Table 16: Peak Fire Danger Indices recorded on 25 May in the Fire Weather Subdistricts in which the fires occurred. ..................................................................................................... 46 Table 17: Weather observations at 0200 AWST 26 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds. ........................................................................................................................ 47 Table 18: Upper winds recorded at Albany Airport at 0700 AWST 26 May 2018. ................ 48 Table 19: Weather observations at 0800 AWST 26 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds. ........................................................................................................................ 49 Table 20: Rainfall recorded in the 24 hours to 9am 26 May 2018. ....................................... 51 Table 21: Weather observations at 1400 AWST 26 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds. ........................................................................................................................ 52 Table 22: Weather observations at 2000 AWST 26 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds. ........................................................................................................................ 53 Table 23: Forecast Fire Danger Ratings for 24 May 2018. .................................................. 54 Table 24: BoM Automatic Weather Stations: ....................................................................... 59 Table 25: DPIRD Automatic Weather Stations. ................................................................... 59


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1 Introduction The purpose of this report is to provide an account of the weather conditions over the fires in the Stirling Ranges and south coast of WA, specifically during the period 23 to 26 May 2018. The first strong cold front of the year moved through western and southern parts of Western Australia on 24 and 25 May. The resultant severe weather event over the southwest of Western Australia caused the escape of planned burns on private property and crown land. These escapes became bushfires and some resulted in damage to properties, stock and infrastructure. This report also records the Bureau of Meteorology’s (Bureau’s) fire weather forecast and briefing service associated with these fires in the lead-up and during the event. This report includes;

• description of the topography of the fire ground;

• weather conditions during 23 (PM), 24, 25 and 26 May 2018;

• the listing of data for the Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) closest to the fire grounds for the period 1800 AWST 23 May to 2330 AWST 26 May 2018 (Stirlings North, Stirlings South DPIRD AWS) and 0000 AWST 24 May to 2330 AWST 26 May 2018 for remaining AWSs;

• Fire danger forecasts for 24 and 25 May 2018 for the fire weather districts in which the fire grounds were situated; and

• the Bureau’s forecast, warnings and briefing products issued specifically for the fires.

There were a number of non-Bureau AWSs located on and around the fire ground. The weather conditions detailed in this report are a ‘best interpretation’ based on the following information;

• Expert meteorological opinion;

• Bureau and non-Bureau AWS data;

• Weather satellite data (from Himawari-8, images every ten minutes);

• Radar data from the Albany weather watch radar (coverage at 10-minute time intervals); and

• Meteorological theory on topographical influences on weather conditions. Where appropriate, possible errors between this ‘best interpretation’ and actual weather conditions will be indicated. Further explanation of the methodology used to describe the weather conditions over the fire ground is provided in Section 3.

1.1 Terminology and units

Except where noted, times are quoted as Australian Western Standard Time (UTC + 8 hours). Wind speeds are 10-minute averages measured in kilometres per hour (km/h) and measured at a standard height of 10 metres above ground level except where noted. Wind directions refer to the direction from which the wind is coming and are given in 16 points, or degrees, of the compass as indicated. Temperatures and dew point temperatures are measured in degrees Celsius (°C). A location map showing key sites mentioned in this report is shown in Figure 1.


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Figure 1: Location of BoM (bold) and DPIRD Automatic Weather Stations, Fire Weather Districts (italicised) and final fire shapes for three DBCA managed bushfires.

Figure 1 also shows the location of three bushfires managed by the Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions for which incident weather forecasts were issued during the event. Refer to Figure 15 for a satellite hotspot image showing fire activity visible across the south-west on the evening of 22 May 2018.


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2 Antecedent Conditions

2.1 Rainfall

Rainfall events in mid-December 2017 (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/wa/archive/201712.summary.shtml) and mid-January 2018 (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/wa/archive/201801.summary.shtml) resulted in a wet summer for much of the Southwest Land Division (Figure 2). However, the Albany area and surrounds did not receive significant rainfall during the January event resulting in a generally average rainfall period for summer 2017-18 in this area. It should be noted that rainfall is typically low during this time of year.

Figure 2: Rainfall deciles for WA, 1 December 2017 to 28 February 2018.

Autumn 2018 rainfall for the South West Land Division (SWLD) was the second lowest on record, and lowest for more than a century (since 1914) (Figure 3). Many locations in

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/wa/archive/201712.summary.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/wa/archive/201801.summary.shtml


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southern WA received less than one-third of the autumn average rainfall, and numerous sites had their driest autumn on record. Further information is available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/wa/archive/201805.summary.shtml. Rainfall totals around the Albany area were generally in the range 40% to 60% of the normal autumn rainfall (Figure 3), with a particularly dry May observed in the area (see Figure 4).

Figure 3: Rainfall deciles for WA, 1 March to 31 May 2018.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/wa/archive/201805.summary.shtml


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Figure 4: Rainfall deciles for WA for May 2018.


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The below average rainfall in autumn 2018 is consistent with a trend of declining rainfall that has been observed over the past 40 years, particularly during the autumn and winter period (Figure 5 and Figure 6). Southwestern Australia is defined as an area southwest of a line from Jurien Bay to Bremer Bay.

Figure 5: Autumn rainfall over southwestern Australia (1900 to 2018).


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Figure 6: Winter rainfall over southwestern Australia (1900 to 2017).

2.2 Temperature

After a generally close to normal summer, above average maximum temperatures were observed across southwest WA in autumn 2018 (Figure 7 and Figure 8).


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Figure 7: Maximum temperature deciles for WA, 1 December 2017 to 28 February 2018.


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Figure 8: Maximum temperature deciles for WA, 1 March to 31 May 2018.


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Figure 9: Maximum temperature deciles for WA, May 2018.


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Temperatures in southwestern Australia have risen by approximately 1 °C over the past one hundred years (Figure 10).

Figure 10: Annual maximum temperature anomaly for southwestern Australia (1910 to 2017).

2.3 Drought Indices and Fuel1

The Soil Dryness Index (SDI) and Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) are measures of the long term dryness (dryness of heavy fuels) of the forest. It estimates the amount of rainfall (in mm) needed to saturate the soil profile. When the SDI/KBDI = 0, the ground is saturated. When the SDI/KBDI = 200, the ground is extremely dry. The Drought Factor (DF) is a measure of the short term dryness (or dryness of fine fuels) in a forest. It estimates the proportion (in tenths) of the fine fuels (< 6mm) in a forest that will burn in a fire. DF = 0 all fuels wet, no fires possible, DF = 5 half the fine fuel will burn, DF =

1 In both the KBDI and SDI, the water balance is expressed in terms of soil moisture deficit (SMD), which is the amount of water (i.e. rain) in mm necessary to bring the soil moisture content back to field capacity - the amount of water the soil can hold in its capillaries against gravity. A low soil moisture deficit therefore means there is little or no constraint to evaporation from soil or transpiration from plants. However, it also means that there is a low capacity for infiltration in case of heavy rainfall. A high soil moisture deficit means that there is very little water available for either soil evaporation or plant transpiration. Under moderate to high soil moisture deficit, vegetation becomes drought stressed and the point at which this occurs depends on plant species as well as soil properties. Both KBDI and SDI models assume a maximum soil moisture deficit of 200 mm and a minimum soil moisture deficit of zero (Finkele et. al 2006).


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10 all fuels dry and ready to burn, including peat and logs. The SDI/KBDI feeds into the calculation of the DF. A DF of 10 requires an SDI/KBDI of > 100. Witchcliffe, Pemberton, North Walpole and Albany were the closest ground moisture stations to the fire grounds and were considered to be representative of the conditions over the fire grounds. These stations were used to determine ground moisture values (DF, SDI, KBDI) and to provide high resolution weather observations. During summer, into autumn and in the weeks leading up to the event, the SDI (Figure 12 and Figure 13) were significantly drier than the five-year average. At Witchcliffe, Pemberton and Rocky Gully, the SDI on 24 May was the driest in the past 5 years. At Albany Airport, the SDI was very close to the driest in the past 5 years. The Drought Factor (DF) at Albany Airport was 9.9 on 24 May and was 10.0 at Witchcliffe, Pemberton and Rocky Gully. Due to the warm and dry conditions during May, the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) was the highest on record over southwest WA, see Figure 11.


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Figure 11: Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) deciles for WA, May 2018.


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Figure 12: SDI observations from Witchcliffe (top) and Pemberton (bottom).


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Figure 13: SDI observations from Rocky Gully (top) and Albany Airport (bottom).


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The upper layer and lower layer soil moisture deciles for May were very much below average to the lowest on record over the fire grounds. See Figure 14 for further details.

Figure 14: Upper-layer (top image) and lower-layer (bottom image) soil moisture deciles for WA, May 2018.


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3 Methodology used to interpret weather conditions over the fire ground This section provides a detailed explanation of the methodology used when estimating weather parameters over an area where there are no direct observations. These techniques have been used unless otherwise noted.

3.1 Temperature

Any nearby AWS temperature data was used to help assess near-surface temperature conditions over the fire ground. In a well-mixed atmosphere, where air can freely mix

between the surface and levels above the surface, the temperature typically cools 1C for every 100m gained in height. This fact has been used to interpret temperature over the topography of the fire ground. After a wind change2 has passed through an area the cooling with height assumption can become invalid.

3.2 Relative Humidity

Nearby AWS data was also used to help assess near-surface relative humidity conditions over the fire ground. AWSs either directly measure relative humidity or measure another moisture parameter called wet bulb temperature. From these parameters the AWS calculates a third moisture parameter called dew point, which is the moisture parameter relayed by the AWS to the Bureau. Relative humidity can be recalculated given the temperature and dew point. Unlike relative humidity, the dew point is independent of temperature and varies only with the moisture content. In a very well-mixed atmosphere, the dew point can remain reasonably constant over the height differences experienced in these fires. This assumption of negligible variation of dewpoint temperature with height is no longer valid after a wind change2 has passed through an area. Using these temperature and dew point assumptions, nearby AWS dew point data was used in conjunction with the temperature data, to calculate relative humidity over the fire ground. The humidity probe at Albany Airport was faulty and as such there were no recordings of dew point or relative humidity during the fire event.

3.3 Wind speed and direction

Nearby AWS data was used to help assess near-surface wind conditions over the fire ground. Local topography can influence both the speed and direction of winds. Low level winds can be funneled along valleys and around and over hills. However, in a well-mixed atmosphere, local topography has less effect than after a wind change2, when conditions typically suppress vertical mixing, allowing topography to have a stronger effect. It should also be noted that near large and intense fires, wind speed and direction can become very erratic because of the interaction between the fire and the general wind flow to produce local fire-generated winds. This report does not address any possible fire effects on wind speed and direction on the fire ground. Winds above the surface are based on wind flights conducted at Albany Airport.

2 A wind change can also produce changes in temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric stability.


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3.4 Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development

(DPIRD) AWS

Scott River, Stirlings North and Stirlings South AWSs are maintained by the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) and are considered as non-standard weather observations (anemometer height 3 metres and unknown exposure, calibration and maintenance regime) but provide a guide to the weather conditions in the area. As they are the closest observation sites to some of the fires, observations from these sites have been included in this report.


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4 Fire Danger Indices and Ratings

Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) and Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) forecasts are provided for all fire weather districts except for the North and South Interior Districts, where only GFDI forecasts are produced. The dominant fuel type (as agreed to with DFES, Parks and Wildlife and BoM) is used to determine what combination of GFDI and FFDI is used to determine the FDR. The significant fires occurred in the Leeuwin, Stirling Coast and Stirling Inland fire weather subdistricts. The percentage coverage fuel type in these districts are as follows:

Fire Weather Subdistrict GFDI % coverage of district

FFDI % coverage of district

Leeuwin < 10 > 90

Beaufort > 90 < 10

Stirling Coast > 75 < 25

Stirling Inland > 50 < 50 Table 1: Percentage coverage fuel type in fire weather subdistricts.

DFES may request that an FDR be modified to account for meteorological (e.g. dry lightning) and non-meteorological considerations (e.g. resource constraints associated with significant ongoing bushfires).

All FFDIs in Bureau of Meteorology products for the Western Australia region are calculated using the McArthur Mark 5 Forest Danger Meter (McArthur, 1967). The specific algorithm used was developed by Noble et al (1980), as reproduced below:

FFDI = e^(ln(2)−0.45+0.987*ln(DF)−0.0345*RH+0.0338*T+0.0234*V)

Where:

DF = Drought Factor (dimensionless number between 0 and 10)

T = air temperature (°C)

V = 10-minute mean wind speed at 10 metres (km/h)

RH = relative humidity (%)

For FFDI, the fuel component is the Drought Factor (DF) which is derived from the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI).

All GFDIs quoted in Bureau of Meteorology products for the Western Australia region are calculated using the CSIRO-modified McArthur Mark 4 Grassland Fire Danger Meter (Cheney and Sullivan, 1997). The specific algorithm used is that of Purton (1982) as reproduced below:

GFDI = e^(-1.523+1.027*ln(Q) - 0.009432*(100-C)1.536 + 0.02764*T + 0.6422*(V)0.5 - 0.2205*(RH)0.5)


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Where:

GFDI = Grassland Fire Danger Index

Q = fuel quantity (t/ha)

C = degree of curing (%)

T = air temperature (°C)

V = 10-minute mean wind speed at 10 metres (km/h)

RH = relative humidity (%)

Curing is a measure of the percentage of dead material in a grassland environment. A curing value of 0% represents totally green vegetation and 100% represents totally dry vegetation.

By agreement with DBCA and DFES, the fuel quantity used in grassland fire danger index (GFDI) calculations is set to 4.5 t/ha in all districts at all times.


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5 The Stirling Range Fire and South Coast Fires In the lead-up to the event, several fires were evident across the south west of WA. The night microphysical RGB composite image from Himawari-8 in Figure 15, shows hotspots as darker purple areas.

Figure 15: Himawari-8 night microphysical RGB composite image at 2000 AWST 22 May 2018.

5.1 Topography of the fire ground

The most significant fires associated with this weather event occurred in the Stirling Coastal and Stirling Inland forecast districts which are characterised by gently undulating terrain interspersed with a series of prominent hills and several mountain ranges including the Porongurup and Stirling ranges. The following description of the topography of the Stirling Range National Park was kindly provided by DBCA. The Stirling Range consists of a series of hills and isolated peaks rather than a continuous range. Bluff Knoll, the highest point in the range rises to a height about 850 m above the surrounding plain. Peaks in the eastern half of the range are generally higher and more rugged than those further west, and are characterised by cliffs, rocky bluffs and scree slopes. The main range is dissected by a series of steep gullies and small valleys which drain to a gently sloping piedmont zone at an elevation between 150 and 300 m above sea level and a network of fringing wetlands and salt lakes. The distance between the crest of the main range and the upper piedmont is generally less than 2 km, resulting in an average gradient of 1:3 and slopes above 30°. Higher parts of the main range are covered in dense shrub thickets of shrubland, with lower slopes and piedmont covered in mallee vegetation dominated by jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata). The location of prescribed burn SRNP_ALB_006 was on the southern side of the range between Moongoongoonderup Hill and Ellen Peak at an elevation between 200 m and 260 m above sea level, sloping gently upwards towards the range.


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Figure 16: Topographical map of the eastern end of the Stirling Range.

5.2 Weather Conditions

5.2.1 Wednesday 23 May 2018

At 2000 AWST 23 May, a high was located near Adelaide with a general northerly gradient over southwest WA. A cold front was located over the eastern Indian Ocean, moving towards the east at about 55 km/h (~30 knots).


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Figure 17: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 2000 AWST 23 May.

At 2000 AWST, the following weather conditions were reported from AWSs over southwest WA.

AWS Location Wind Speed (km/h)

Wind Gust (km/h)

Wind Direction (degrees)

Temperature (°C)

Relative Humidity

(%)

Scott River (DPIRD)

9 13 030 14.8 72

North Walpole (BoM)

9 13 010 16.7 40

Albany Airport (BoM)

9 11 050 13.9 n/a

Stirlings North (DPIRD)

4 6 050 14.0 36

Stirlings South (DPIRD)

7 13 030 17.0 30

Table 2: Weather observations at 2000 AWST 23 May from locations in the vicinity of the fire grounds.

Winds were generally from the north to northeast between 5 and 10 km/h. Temperatures were between 14 and 17°C. Relative humidity near Albany was estimated at around 60%. Detailed weather observations from Scott River (DPIRD), North Walpole (BoM), Albany Airport (BoM), Stirlings North (DPIRD) and Stirlings South (DPIRD) AWS can be found in Appendix 4: Detailed Weather Observations.

5.2.2 Thursday 24 May 2018

At 0200 AWST 24 May, the synoptic pattern was broadly similar but with the cold front advancing further east, closer to southwest WA.


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Wind Gust (km/h)


Temperature (°C)

Relative Humidity

(%)

Scott River (DPIRD)

0 2 - 6.7 79

North Walpole (BoM)

13 20 030 16.7 33


11 11 030 8.7 n/a


6 7 090 6.8 54


4 7 190 5.4 60


Winds were light and variable near the southwest corner at Scott River, grading to east to northeast over remaining areas. There was a sharp temperature gradient ranging from 5°C to 7°C near the base of the Stirlings to around 17°C near the coast at North Walpole. Relative humidity near Albany was estimated at around 60%. The winds at the Stirlings South AWS were between 180 and 210 degrees at speeds of 6 km/h or less between 2130 AWST 23 May and 0300 AWST 24 May. This change in wind direction (reversal of the wind direction) and speed is most likely the


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result of mountain waves3 and in particular, a series of rotors4, due to the strong northerly winds close to and above the Stirling Ranges and a strong temperature inversion. Diagrams showing mountain waves and rotors can be found in Appendix 8: Diagrams of Mountain Waves and Rotors. The upper level winds observed at Albany Airport at 0700 AWST 24 May, showed generally northerly winds between 80 and 95 km/h between 600m and 900m ASL. These wind speeds and direction would be broadly similar to those observed earlier in the morning over the Stirling Ranges. The elevation of the Stirling Ranges peaks at 1099m (Bluff Knoll) with several other peaks between 780m and 1060m. A strong temperature inversion was present between the surface and 300m (approx. 6°C) and another weaker inversion between 600m and 765m (approx. 1°C). This would have acted like a lid and trapped the strong northerly winds between the surface and the top of the inversion. The direction of the winds near ridge-top level was generally perpendicular to the Stirling Ranges, which enhances the risk of mountain waves and rotors developing. As the Stirlings South AWS is located to the west of the Stirling Ranges fire, it is possible that the variable winds (mainly south southwest) due to the rotors were stronger closer to the base of the range on the southern side in the vicinity of the prescribed burn. Note that the winds from mountain waves and rotors are not always necessarily 180 degrees from the synoptic wind flow. These winds can be variable in direction and have a range of wind speeds. Further details on mountain waves, including their localised effects, difficulty in forecasting their influence and their different effects can be found in the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Hazard Note Issue 24 December 2016. Table 4 indicates the strength and direction of the winds above the surface at Albany Airport recorded at 0700 AWST 24 May. These winds are considered to be generally representative of the winds over the Stirling Ranges. Model analyses indicated that the winds over the Stirling Ranges below 1500m could be up to 10 to 15 km/h stronger than that at observed at Albany Airport. Winds at and just above the surface were from the north northeast, generally between 10 and 20 km/h. From 300m and above (about the height of the fire in the Stirling Ranges), the winds increased markedly and were from the north northwest with a peak wind speed of 93 km/h at 600m above sea level (ASL). The winds over the Stirling Ranges near ridge top level were estimated to be from the north between 90 and 100 km/h. The temperature at about 300m ASL was 19°C with a relative humidity of 24%. The stronger northerly winds mixed down to the surface after 10am as a result of surface heating.

3 Mountain waves form above and downwind of topographic barriers when strong winds blow with a significant vector component perpendicular to the barrier in a stable environment. 4 Rotors are part of a low-level turbulent zone that often forms in association with a mountain wave system. Rotors are also called horizontal roll vortices because they form a complete rotational pattern, with the axis of rotation parallel to the ground. The low-level turbulent zone is another region of potentially significant turbulence. It exists immediately downstream of the jump region and under a wave crest. Rotor axes typically occur at altitude equal to or below mountain-top level and within 20 nautical miles of the ridge line.


26

Wind Direction (degrees) Wind Speed (km/h) Height ASL (m)

040 13 10

005 9 70

025 18 97

360 55 300

350 93 600

350 87 765

350 81 900

340 72 1483

335 55 2100

350 42 3074

330 52 4200

315 61 5710

295 68 7360

280 52 9360

260 144 10570 Table 4: Upper winds recorded at Albany Airport at 0700 AWST 24 May 2018.


27

Figure 19: Aerological diagram for Albany Airport at 0700 AWST 24 May 2018.

At 0800 AWST 24 May, a high was located near the South Australia/Victoria border and a strong cold front and low was approaching the west coast of WA at around 65 km/h (35 knots). Between the two weather systems, a strengthening north to northwest gradient was developing over southwest WA.


28


At 0800 AWST, the following weather conditions were reported from AWSs over southwest WA. Note: The values in parenthesis are the wind speed in knots for comparison to the wind forecast in Figure 21.


Wind Gust (km/h)


Temperature (°C)

Relative Humidity

(%)

Scott River (DPIRD)

7 13 020 12.8 52

North Walpole (BoM)

22 (12) 35 020 17.2 32


9 (5) 13 030 14.9 n/a


9 19 030 13.4 34


19 35 010 17.5 26


Winds were from the north northeast and ranged in speeds from less than 10 km/h near the southwest corner at Scott River to around 20 km/h near the south coast and south of the Stirlings. Temperatures ranged from around 13°C at Scott River and north of the Stirlings to around 17°C south of the Stirlings and near the south coast at North Walpole. Relative humidity near Albany was estimated at around 30%.


29

The GFE wind5 grids published on Sunday 20 May at 0500 and 1700 AWST to MetEye valid for 0800 AWST Thursday 24 May can be found in Figure 21. The forecast winds for Thursday, issued on Sunday, are presented as it is acknowledged that decisions to ignite prescribed burns were made using wind forecasts on Sunday.

5 Wind speed is indicated by the flag/pennant set, to the nearest five knots (nautical miles per hour). The speed is represented by the sum of half-flags, flags and pennants on the barb, where: Half-flag = 5 knots, Flag = 10 knots, Pennant = 50 knots Where there is no wind the barb is replaced with a simple black dot to indicate calm conditions. Wind Direction is indicated by the angle of the barb (orientation). The wind blows from the flag end towards the dot 1 knot is 1.852 km/h.


30

Figure 21: GFE Wind Forecast for 0800 AWST 24 May (top image: forecast issued 0500 AWST 20 May, bottom image: forecast issued 1700 AWST 20 May). Colour contours are in knots (see legend).


31

At 1400 AWST 24 May, a prefrontal trough was just offshore from the west coast. The strong cold front was still approaching the west coast at around 65 km/h (35 knots) and the low had deepened to 983hPa. The north to northwest gradient had strengthened over southwest WA.




Wind Gust (km/h)


Temperature (°C)

Relative Humidity

(%)

Scott River (DPIRD)6

39 61 350 23.9 35

North Walpole (BoM)

13 (7) 19 010 23.4 31


33 (18) 44 360 25.7 n/a


28 43 360 25.6 16


19 39 010 25.9 16


6 Observation time was 1358 AWST.


32

Winds were generally from the north between 15 and 30 km/h, increasing to about 40 km/h over the southwest corner at Scott River. Relative humidity near Albany was estimated at between 15 and 20%. The GFE wind7 grids published to MetEye on Sunday 20 May at 0500 and 1700 AWST valid for 1400 AWST Thursday 24 May can be found in Figure 23.



33



34

At 2000 AWST 24 May, a prefrontal trough was located near the west coast. The strong cold front was just offshore and the low had deepened to 979 hPa. The north to northwest gradient had also strengthened further over southwest WA.

Figure 24: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) chart for 2000 AWST 24 May 2018.



Wind Gust (km/h)


Temperature (°C)

Relative Humidity

(%)


33 54 030 17.8 89

North Walpole (BoM)

15 (8) 26 020 23.7 25


31 (17) 48 030 23.4 n/a


24 43 050 21.7 21


24 46 030 24.4 19


8 Observation time was 1954 AWST.


35

The winds were from the north-northeast or northeast. Temperatures remained in excess of 20°C away from the southwest corner at Scott River, where prefrontal rain had commenced. Relative humidity near Albany was estimated at around 20%. The GFE wind9 grids published to MetEye on Sunday 20 May at 0500 and 1700 AWST valid for 2000 AWST Thursday 24 May can be found in Figure 25.



36



37

Prefrontal rain was recorded at Scott River from about 1800 AWST. The cold front moved through Scott River between 2230 and 2300 AWST as evident by a change in wind direction from 020 to 320 degrees. There was 38mm of rain recorded from the onset of rain to the passage of the front. Smoke from the Stirling Ranges fire was evident on the Albany Airport radar and is indicated by the red oval shapes in Figure 26. The smoke plume was quite narrow under the influence of strong low level northerly winds.

Albany Airport Radar 2200 AWST 24 May. Albany Airport Radar 2230 AWST 24 May.

Albany Airport Radar 2300 AWST 24 May. Albany Airport Radar 2330 AWST 24 May.

Figure 26: Albany radar images showing smoke from a fire over the Stirling Ranges (2200-2330 AWST).


38

Fire Danger Indices

The peak Fire Danger Indices recorded in each fire weather subdistrict on 24 May were:

Location Fire Weather Subdistrict

Maximum GFDI10 Maximum FFDI11

Manjimup Leeuwin 25 @ 1444 AWST

Witchcliffe Leeuwin 17 @ 1730 AWST

Katanning Research Station Beaufort 57 @ 2100 AWST 40 @ 2100 AWST

Jacup Stirling Coast 49 @ 1200 AWST 44 @ 1200 AWST

Gnowangerup GRDC (DPIRD)

Stirling Inland 75 @ 1133 AWST 54 @ 1345 AWST

Table 8: Peak Fire Danger Indices recorded on 24 May in the Fire Weather Subdistricts in which the fires occurred.

Northerly Pressure Gradient

The northerly pressure gradient over southwest WA was unusually strong during this event, particularly on 24 May. Using the pressure difference between Kalgoorlie-Boulder Airport and Perth Airport as a measure of the northerly gradient, the peak value was 12.7 hPa (using 3 hourly synoptic weather observations from 1952 to 2018). This ranks equal 6th for northerly gradients in May. A northerly pressure gradient of 12.7 hPa was also recorded on 30 May 1970 and 12 May 1988. The strongest observed northerly pressure gradient during May was 16.2 hPa on 22 May 1958.

Date/Time (AWST) Pressure Difference (hPa)

22 May 1958 16.2

30 May 1970 14.2

15 May 1977 14.0

28 May 1962 13.8

27 May 1980 13.0

12 May 1988 12.7

30 May 1970 12.7

24 May 2018 12.7 Figure 27: Pressure difference between Kalgoorlie and Perth as an indicator of northerly pressure gradients in May over southwest WA.

10 Grassland Fire Danger Index. 11 Forest Fire Danger Index.


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5.2.3 Friday 25 May 2018

The cold front moved through North Walpole between 0130 and 0200 AWST 25 May as shown by a shift in wind direction from 010 to 310 degrees and a drop in temperature from 15°C to 12°C. No rain was recorded during this period. At 0200 AWST 25 May, the front was moving through southwest WA at around 65 km/h. The low to the southwest of WA was still deepening with a central pressure of 971hPa.



AWS Location

Wind Speed (km/h)

Wind Gust (km/h)


Temperature (°C)

Relative Humidity

(%)

Scott River (DPIRD)

17 28 350 12.9 97

North Walpole (BoM)

30 43 320 12.5 99


65 98 360 19.9 n/a

Stirlings North (DPIRD)12

35 56 360 14.8 80

Stirlings South

(DPIRD)13

39 80 360 16.0 76


12 Observation time was 0157 AWST. 13 Observation time was 0204 AWST.


40

Winds were from the north and tended northwest at North Walpole at speeds between 20 and 40 km/h, increasing to 65 km/h at Albany Airport. Temperatures were around 13°C at Scott River and North Walpole due to the rain. Ahead of the rain, temperatures ranged from 15°C north of the Stirlings to 20°C at Albany Airport. Relative humidity near Albany was estimated at around 60%. The cold front moved through Albany Airport between 0430 and 0500 AWST, as shown by a shift in wind direction from 350 to 330 degrees. 0.2mm of rain was recorded at Albany Airport at 0230 AWST and a further 0.2mm at 0700 AWST. At 0800 AWST 25 May, the front had cleared the fire grounds and a secondary system indicated by the dashed line was approaching the southwest corner of WA. The low had started to weaken and was still located to the southwest of WA. Table 10 indicates the strength and direction of the winds above the surface at Albany Airport, recorded at 0700 AWST 25 May. Winds at the surface and just above were from the north northwest generally between 20 and 35 km/h. Winds tended northwest and increased markedly to greater than 70 km/h above 600m with a peak low level wind of 93 km/h at 2100m. These winds are considered to be generally representative of the winds over the Stirling Ranges. Model analyses indicated that the winds below 1500m over the Stirling Ranges could be up to 10 km/h lighter than that at Albany Airport. The winds near the higher peaks of the Stirling Ranges (between 614m and 900m ASL) were estimated to be from the northwest at speeds between 70 and 80 km/h. The temperature at 614m ASL was 11°C with a relative humidity of 60%.


330 35 10

340 22 70

325 74 614

325 85 900

315 83 1316

315 93 2100

315 87 2878

335 70 3600

345 104 4200

345 91 5450

325 196 7060

325 185 9060


Table 11 indicates the strength and direction of the winds above the surface at Albany Airport, recorded at 1300 AWST 25 May. Winds at and just above the surface were from the north northwest generally between 30 and 40 km/h. These winds increased to northwest at over 50 km/h at a height of 300m and above.


41

These winds are considered to be generally representative of the winds over the Stirling Ranges. Model analyses indicated that the upper winds over the Stirling Ranges were similar to that at Albany Airport.


340 33 10

340 37 70

320 52 300

320 67 600

310 67 900

310 80 1297

305 83 2100

310 81 2853

315 89 4200

310 87 5410

305 98 7010

300 117 8970

315 107 10190

300 119 11690


The winds over the Stirling Ranges near ridge top level were estimated to be from the northwest between 70 and 80 km/h. North northwest winds at the surface and just above the surface tended northwest at 300m and above.



42


AWS Location

Wind Speed (km/h)

Wind Gust (km/h)


Temperature (°C)

Relative Humidity

(%)

Scott River (DPIRD)

22 37 290 11.9 88

North Walpole (BoM)

20 33 350 12.6 83


26 39 350 14.3 n/a


28 41 320 13.0 77

Stirlings South

(DPIRD)

17 28 350 11.9 86


Winds were between west-northwest and north-northwest between 15 and 30 km/h. Temperatures were relatively uniform across the area ranging from between 12°C and 14°C. Relative humidity near Albany was estimated at around 80%.


43

Figure 30: Rainfall analysis for the 24hrs to 9am 25 May 2018.

AWS Location Rainfall (mm)

Scott River (DPIRD) 62

North Walpole (BoM)14 13.2

Albany Airport (BoM) 0.4

Stirlings North (DPIRD) 4.8

Stirlings South (DPIRD) 4.2 Table 13: Rainfall recorded in the 24 hours to 9am 25 May 2018.

At 1400 AWST 25 May, the secondary system was near the Southwest Capes and the gradually weakening low was beginning to pass to the south of the state.

14 24 hour rainfall was not available for the North Walpole AWS. 13.2mm was recorded at Walpole Forestry (-34.9769, 116.7286)


44



AWS Location

Wind Speed (km/h)

Wind Gust (km/h)


Temperature (°C)

Relative Humidity

(%)


46 70 310 16.8 57

North Walpole (BoM)

22 37 360 13.7 75


35 52 330 16.7 n/a


31 46 330 16.3 62

Stirlings South

(DPIRD)16

30 50 330 16.2 57


15 Observation time was 1405 AWST. 16 Observation time was 1353 AWST.


45

Winds were northwest over the southwest corner at Scott River and tended north to northwest across remaining areas. Temperatures again were relatively uniform and were between 14°C and 17°C. Relative humidity near Albany was estimated at around 60%. At 2000 AWST 25 May, the slowly weakening low was passing to the south of the state. An occluded front17 was located to the south of the south coast.


17 When the cold front moves faster than the warm front, as it overtakes the warm front the warm sector is closed and a combine front forms.


46


AWS Location

Wind Speed (km/h)

Wind Gust (km/h)


Temperature (°C)

Relative Humidity

(%)

Scott River (DPIRD)

22 31 290 13.7 87

North Walpole (BoM)

22 48 350 12.2 96


31 43 350 12.8 n/a


26 43 340 12.8 80

Stirlings South

(DPIRD)

24 41 340 13.8 75


Winds near the southwest corner at Scott River were west-northwest, grading to north-northwest over remaining areas at speeds generally between 20 and 30 km/h. Temperatures were uniform across the area between 12°C and 14°C. The relative humidity near Albany was estimated at between 80 and 90%. The peak Fire Danger Indices recorded in each fire weather subdistrict on 25 May were:

Location Fire Weather Subdistrict Maximum GFDI18 Maximum FFDI19

Cape Leeuwin Leeuwin 36 @ 1500 AWST 7 @ 1330 AWST

Katanning Research Station

Beaufort 21 @ 0000 AWST 8 @ 0000 AWST

Jacup Stirling Coast 46 @ 0030 AWST 38 @ 0030 AWST

Gnowangerup GRDC (DPIRD)

Stirling Inland 64 @ 0010 AWST

Table 16: Peak Fire Danger Indices recorded on 25 May in the Fire Weather Subdistricts in which the fires occurred.

18 Grassland Fire Danger Index. 19 Forest Fire Danger Index.


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5.2.4 Saturday 26 May 2018

At 0200 AWST 26 May, the deep low was passing to the south of the south coast of WA with a strong westerly gradient over the southwest WA. An occluded front was located very close to the south coast.




Wind Gust (km/h)


Temperature (°C)

Relative Humidity

(%)

Scott River (DPIRD)

24 44 250 14.1 89

North Walpole (BoM)

28 39 310 12.9 99


31 48 320 14.1 n/a


33 48 320 12.9 85


28 44 320 13.8 80



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Northwest winds between 25 and 35 km/h were observed over central and eastern parts. Winds tended west to southwest near the southwest corner at Scott River. Relative humidity near Albany was estimated at around 90%. Table 18 indicates the strength and direction of the winds above the surface at Albany Airport, recorded at 0700 AWST 26 May. Winds at and just above the surface were from the west-northwest generally between 30 and 35 km/h. Winds increased markedly and tended west-southwest above 600m with a peak low-level wind of 94 km/h at 900m. These winds are considered to be generally representative of the winds over the Stirling Ranges. Model analyses indicated that the upper winds over the Stirling Ranges were similar (within 5 to 10 km/h) to that at Albany Airport.


290 31 10

285 31 70

255 91 625

255 94 900

250 91 1326

240 83 2100

235 83 2893

240 72 4200

255 80 5480

240 126 7090

245 124 9070


At 0800 AWST 26 May, the secondary system was moving through southwest WA. This system produced an increase in shower activity and also marked a west-northwest to west-southwest wind change. The low continued to weaken and move towards the east, well to the south of the state.


49




Wind Gust (km/h)


Temperature (°C)

Relative Humidity

(%)

Scott River (DPIRD)

28 50 230 14.1 89

North Walpole (BoM)

17 24 270 14.8 77


33 46 290 13.7 n/a


20 31 280 12.8 84


15 24 300 13.2 84


West to southwest winds generally between 20 and 30 km/h over western parts tended west-northwest over eastern parts generally between 20 and 30 km/h. Temperatures were uniform across the area between 13°C and 15°C. Relative humidity near Albany was estimated at around 80%.


50

Figure 35: Rainfall analysis for the 24hrs to 9am 26 May 2018.


51

AWS Location Rainfall (mm)

Scott River (DPIRD) 21

North Walpole (BoM) 20.4

Albany Airport (BoM) 2.8

Stirlings North (DPIRD) 0.8

Stirlings South (DPIRD) 4.4 Table 20: Rainfall recorded in the 24 hours to 9am 26 May 2018.

At 1400 AWST 26 May, the secondary system had cleared the fire grounds with a moderating southwest gradient over southwest WA. The weakening low continued to move towards the east, well to the south of the state.



52



Wind Gust (km/h)


Temperature (°C)

Relative Humidity

(%)

Scott River (DPIRD)

22 39 230 17.2 72

North Walpole (BoM)

31 50 250 17.5 66


24 41 250 15.5 n/a


13 20 260 15.7 81


22 35 260 18.5 63


West to southwest winds had extended throughout at speeds generally between 15 and 30 km/h. Temperatures generally ranged from 16°C to 19°C. Relative humidity near Albany was estimated at around 70%.



53


AWS Location

Wind Speed (km/h)

Wind Gust (km/h)


Temperature (°C)

Relative Humidity

(%)

Scott River (DPIRD)

6 9 270 14.7 86

North Walpole (BoM)

15 20 330 13.7 78


17 20 290 13.0 n/a


17 26 270 13.0 85

Stirlings South

(DPIRD)

9 17 290 13.2 84


Winds were generally from the west to northwest between 5 and 15 km/h. Temperatures were between 13°C and 15°C. The relative humidity near Albany was estimated at around 80%.


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6 Weather Forecasts

6.1 Bureau of Meteorology Fire Weather Services

The BoM provides fire weather services as part of the national framework in accordance with the Meteorological Act 195520. The Bureau’s fire weather service provides fire management authorities with briefings and routine forecasts for operational planning purposes. Incident Weather Forecasts, both ad-hoc and routine are issued to fire authorities to assist in carrying out hazard reduction burns and in combating ongoing fires. The Bureau’s fire weather services in Western Australia are determined in consultation with DBCA, DFES and the Western Australia Local Government Association (WALGA). These services are documented in the Fire Weather Directive (Bureau of Meteorology, 2018). Fire Weather Warnings are issued to the public when the forecast Fire Danger Ratings (FDRs) are Severe, Extreme or Catastrophic. Total Fire Bans (TFBs) for the state are the sole responsibility of DFES.

6.2 Routine Fire Weather Forecasts

Fire Weather Forecasts for the Southwest Land Division (SWLD) are routinely issued at approximately 0430 and 1600 AWST daily. The forecasts valid for 24, 25 and 26 May can be found in Appendix 5: Fire Weather Forecasts. The afternoon forecast Fire Danger Ratings (FDRs) for the Beaufort, Leeuwin, Stirling Coast and Stirling Inland fire weather districts are summarized in Table 23.

Forecast Issued

Fire Weather District 20 May PM 21 May PM 22 May PM 23 May PM

Beaufort High High Very High Very High

Leeuwin High High High High

Stirling Coast Very High Very High Very High Very High

Stirling Inland Very High High Very High Severe Table 23: Forecast Fire Danger Ratings for 24 May 2018.

6.3 Services to DBCA

The Bureau provides a recorded video briefing service for DBCA during the Spring, Summer and Autumn prescribed burning periods (generally between October and May). The forecast information contained in the briefing includes any weather that is significant to DBCA’s burning program over the following four days. Recorded weather briefings are prepared each afternoon, typically between 1400 AWST and 1500 AWST, and are viewed by DBCA at approximately 1600 AWST. The text summary for the recorded briefings from 19 to 24 May can be found in Appendix 8: DBCA Recorded Weather Briefing Summary Notes.

20 THE METEOROLOGY ACT 1955 No. 6 of 1955. An Act relating to the Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology, Comlawld – C2008C00066.


55

6.4 Additional Services to DFES

The routine Emergency Services Weather Briefing issued by the SOCMET (State Operations Centre Meteorologist21) on Monday 21 May at 11:31am referred to the strong cold front and adverse fire weather conditions as follows in the main points:

• Fresh and gusty winds ahead of a cold front will bring elevated Fire Danger conditions through the South West Land Division on Thursday, and most likely into the Goldfields and Eucla on Friday.

• The cold front is likely to cross the west coast on Thursday night, bringing moderate to possibly heavy rainfall that will extend from the South West Capes all the way northward into the west Gascoyne. There is the potential for damaging winds near the cold front along the west coast, extending inland during Friday.

A non-routine Emergency Services Weather Briefing was issued by the SOCMET on Wednesday 23 May at 11:54am and specifically referenced the adverse fire weather conditions ahead of the passage of the strong front. The routine Emergency Services Weather Briefing issued by the SOCMET on Thursday 24 May at 11:15am covered the following main points:

• Windy and unseasonably warm with low humidity today throughout the South West Land Division, resulting in Very High to Severe Fire Danger Ratings across much of the region.

• Cold front will cross the west coast this evening, with a Severe Weather Warning issued for destructive winds and abnormally high tides southwest of a line from Shark Bay to Bremer Bay.

• Squally showers and possible thunderstorms continuing on Friday and Friday night through central and southern parts of the SWLD with damaging winds possible, especially in exposed coastal locations.

Please refer to Appendix 7: Emergency Services Weather Briefings for further details on the contents of Emergency Services Weather Briefings issued during the event.

21 Refer to the Agreement between The Commonwealth of Australia represented by the Bureau of Meteorology and the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES).


56

6.5 Incident Weather Forecasts

Incident Weather Forecasts (IWFs) are site-specific forecasts issued in response to a request from a fire agency. They may be requested to assist with tactical decision making in operations for an uncontrolled fire or for hazard reduction burns.

IWFs are issued with a validity of 12, 18, 24 or 30 hours. A monitoring and amendment service is maintained for all IWFs. IWFs are not routinely reissued; they must be re-requested.22

In addition to the standard 9 DBCA routine IWFs23, IWFs were issued for the following sites:

• Stirling Range NP (initially issued 6:30am AWST 22 May 2018),

• Honeymoon Rd, Harvey (initially issued 12:59pm AWST 22 May 2018).

• Brockman Hwy NNE of Augusta (initially issued 1:40pm AWST 22 May 2018),

• Julimar Rd West Toodyay (initially issued 3:15pm AWST 23 May 2018).

• King River (initially issued 3:54pm AWST 23 May 2018),

• Manjimup (initially issued 5:59pm AWST 23 May 2018).

• Fitzgerald River National Park (initially issued 5:14am AWST 24 May 2018),

• Barrass Road Torndirrup National Park (initially issued 5:31am AWST 24 May 2018),

• Albany Airport (initially issued 8:29am AWST 24 May 2018),

• Chester Moonah (initially issued 12:05pm AWST 24 May 2018).

• East Pingelly (initially issued 1:34pm AWST 24 May 2018).

• Mount Barker (initially issued 1:59pm AWST 24 May 2018).

• West Coolup (initially issued 2:16pm AWST 24 May 2018).

• Cullalla Rd, near Gingin (initially issued 2:30pm AWST 24 May 2018).

• Tarwonga (initially issued 5:20pm AWST 24 May 2018).

• Morangup (initially issued 5:32pm AWST 24 May 2018).

• Roelands (initially issued 5:52pm AWST 24 May 2018).

• Marbelup (initially issued 12:08am AWST 25 May 2018).

• Napier (initially issued 7:58am AWST 25 May 2018).

• Redmond (initially issued 9:56am AWST 27 May 2018).

The four Incident Weather Forecasts issued for the Stirling Range NP fire and the initial IWFs for the Chester Moonah and Barrass Road Torndirrup National Park can be found in Appendix 6: Incident Weather Forecasts.

Copies of Incident Weather Forecasts can be made available upon request.

22 Refer to the Fire Weather Directive 2017/2018 for further details. 23 Pearce, Bickley, Dwellingup, Collie East, Witchcliffe, Bridgetown, Pemberton, Rocky Gully, North Walpole.


57

Appendix 1: South West Western Australia Fire Weather Subdistricts

Figure 38: Map of South West WA Fire Weather Subdistricts.


58

Appendix 2: Fire Danger Index Uncertainty When forecasting the elements from which the FDI is calculated, small changes in forecast temperature, humidity and wind speed can combine to produce relatively large changes in forecast FDI. For this reason, the expression of a FDI as a single integer implies an unrealistic level of precision. Any forecast FDI value should be considered as a central value within a spread of possible FDI values, which reflect the inherent precision of the input values. For FDI values of 50 and above, a spread of +/- 20-30% is typical for GFDI and a spread of +/- 15-20% is typical for FFDI. The spread is generally larger for GFDI because the Grassland Mk 4 fire meter (either original or CSIRO Modified) is particularly sensitive to wind speed. The impacts of these variations are also evident when observing weather elements and taking into account the accepted accuracy of sensors. The table below provides an example of the spread of observation-based GFDI values based on a temperature of 40˚C, relative humidity of 8%, wind speed of 30 km/h, and precision levels of the input variables of: Temperature: +/- 0.3 ˚C RH: +/- 3 % Winds: +/- 3.7 km/h

Scenario T=40˚C +/- 0.3˚C, RH= 8% +/- 2%, Wind +/-3.7 km/hr

Central FDI Value GFDI range 4.5 tonnes/ha

FFDI range DF=10

50 36 - 71 40 -60

75 55 - 104 60 -90

100 74 - 138 85 - 120

Example of the spread of FDI around selected FDI values due to an assumed precision of +/- 0.3 C, +/-3% Relative Humidity and +/- 3.7 km/h in wind speed.

NB. These accuracy values are inferred from the accepted accuracy of the sensors in a BoM AWS.


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Appendix 3: Weather Station Details

Station Number Station Name Latitude Longitude Height above sea level (m)

009998 North Walpole -34.9469 116.7222 73

009999 Albany Airport -34.9411 117.8158 68.4 Table 24: BoM Automatic Weather Stations:

The DPIRD weather stations referred to within this report (Table 25: DPIRD Automatic Weather Stations.) are considered as non-standard weather observations (anemometer height 3 metres, unknown exposure, calibration and maintenance) but provide a guide to the weather conditions over the fire ground.

Station Number Station Name Latitude Longitude Height above sea level (m)

509583 Scott River -34.2507 115.2894 27

510540 Stirlings North -34.2279 117.915 236

509582 Stirlings South -34.5536 117.9283 147 Table 25: DPIRD Automatic Weather Stations.


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Appendix 4: Detailed Weather Observations

Scott River AWS (DPIRD) (27m ASL)

Date Time (AWST)

Temperature (°C)

Dew Point (°C)

Relative Humidity (%)

Wind Speed (km/h)


Wind Gust (km/h)

24/05/2018 0:00 11.9 5.1 63 7 20 11

24/05/2018 0:30 11.2 4.8 65 6 30 9

24/05/2018 1:00 10.7 4.5 65 4 10 7

24/05/2018 1:30 8.3 4.2 75 2 270 4

24/05/2018 2:00 6.7 3.3 79 0 0 2

24/05/2018 2:30 5.7 3.1 83 2 20 4

24/05/2018 3:00 5.4 2.2 80 2 10 6

24/05/2018 3:30 5.5 2.7 82 2 300 4

24/05/2018 4:00 4.9 2 81 4 20 6

24/05/2018 4:30 4.9 2.3 83 0 0 2

24/05/2018 5:00 4.4 2.1 85 4 350 4

24/05/2018 5:30 5.5 2.4 80 2 20 4

24/05/2018 6:00 6 2.1 76 4 330 6

24/05/2018 6:30 5.7 2 77 4 340 4

24/05/2018 7:00 8.1 2.4 67 4 300 6

24/05/2018 7:30 9.7 3 63 6 320 9

24/05/2018 8:00 12.8 3.3 52 7 20 13

24/05/2018 8:30 15.7 3.8 45 13 30 19

24/05/2018 9:00 17.3 5.6 46 15 20 22

24/05/2018 9:30 18.2 8.1 52 15 20 22

24/05/2018 10:00 19.8 10 53 20 10 35

24/05/2018 10:30 20.3 11.2 56 22 10 31

24/05/2018 11:00 22.4 11.5 50 20 10 30

24/05/2018 11:30 24.6 8.9 37 30 360 44

24/05/2018 11:59 24.3 8.4 36 33 360 52

24/05/2018 12:19 25.4 6.9 31 33 350 56

24/05/2018 12:30 24.5 5.8 30 39 350 56

24/05/2018 13:00 23.9 6.9 34 31 360 44

24/05/2018 13:30 24.2 6.9 33 33 360 48

24/05/2018 13:40 24.1 7.1 34 35 350 54

24/05/2018 13:58 23.9 7.4 35 39 350 61

24/05/2018 14:30 23.3 10 43 33 350 48

24/05/2018 14:32 23.3 10.2 44 33 360 52

24/05/2018 15:00 23.9 11.9 47 37 360 54

24/05/2018 15:02 23.9 12 47 37 360 56

24/05/2018 15:30 23.9 11.9 47 37 360 54

24/05/2018 15:39 23.8 11.3 45 37 360 57

24/05/2018 15:52 23.7 10.9 44 35 360 54

24/05/2018 16:18 23.8 10.5 43 35 10 54

24/05/2018 16:29 24 10.5 43 37 360 59

24/05/2018 16:45 24.2 10.8 43 37 360 57

24/05/2018 16:57 24.2 11 43 35 350 59

24/05/2018 17:08 24.2 11.5 45 41 360 65

24/05/2018 17:20 24 12 47 39 350 63

24/05/2018 17:30 23.8 12.8 50 46 350 69


61

24/05/2018 17:34 23.3 12.8 52 44 350 69

24/05/2018 17:58 18.6 16 85 37 350 57

24/05/2018 18:20 18 16.5 91 30 10 50

24/05/2018 18:30 18.1 16.6 91 31 10 48

24/05/2018 19:00 18.2 16.6 90 26 20 44

24/05/2018 19:30 17.9 16 89 24 30 41

24/05/2018 19:54 17.8 15.9 89 33 30 54

24/05/2018 20:30 17.1 16.2 94 26 10 43

24/05/2018 21:00 17.4 17 98 26 350 52

24/05/2018 21:10 16.9 16.4 97 28 10 46

24/05/2018 21:30 16.8 16.2 96 24 10 37

24/05/2018 21:58 16.6 15.7 94 28 10 46

24/05/2018 22:30 16.4 15.8 96 20 20 35

24/05/2018 23:00 14.7 14 96 20 320 44

24/05/2018 23:30 14.4 13.9 97 15 320 26

25/05/2018 0:00 13.4 12.7 96 26 280 41

25/05/2018 0:13 13.4 12.3 93 28 300 50

25/05/2018 0:30 13.3 12.3 94 24 300 41

25/05/2018 1:00 13.1 12.4 96 7 330 13

25/05/2018 1:30 12.9 12.4 97 7 340 11

25/05/2018 2:00 12.9 12.4 97 17 350 28

25/05/2018 2:30 12.8 11.9 94 13 350 19

25/05/2018 3:00 12.9 12.2 96 17 360 26

25/05/2018 3:30 13 12.4 96 9 360 15

25/05/2018 4:00 13 12.5 97 7 350 17

25/05/2018 4:30 12.3 11.4 94 17 350 24

25/05/2018 4:37 10.7 9.6 93 28 330 63

25/05/2018 5:00 11.5 10.3 92 20 300 39

25/05/2018 5:30 11.5 10.5 94 9 330 17

25/05/2018 6:00 12.5 11 91 9 310 17

25/05/2018 6:30 12.5 11.4 93 7 320 17

25/05/2018 7:00 11.8 10.8 94 11 290 22

25/05/2018 7:30 12 10.9 93 9 310 17

25/05/2018 8:00 11.9 10 88 22 290 37

25/05/2018 8:30 11.9 10.3 90 13 310 24

25/05/2018 9:00 12.8 11.7 93 11 340 17

25/05/2018 9:30 12.6 11.4 92 11 360 17

25/05/2018 10:00 13.3 11.8 91 15 360 22

25/05/2018 10:30 12.1 10 87 26 330 43

25/05/2018 11:00 12.6 10.5 87 17 350 31

25/05/2018 11:30 13.6 11 84 17 330 26

25/05/2018 12:00 14.3 11.4 83 17 330 26

25/05/2018 12:30 15.5 10.2 71 20 320 37

25/05/2018 12:41 15.8 8.5 62 30 320 61

25/05/2018 13:00 15.9 9.2 64 30 300 44

25/05/2018 13:05 16.1 9.2 64 28 310 52

25/05/2018 13:16 16.1 8.6 61 39 310 67

25/05/2018 13:27 16.1 7.7 57 39 310 61

25/05/2018 13:43 16.6 8.5 59 39 310 67

25/05/2018 13:54 16.8 8.3 57 43 310 63

25/05/2018 14:05 16.8 8.2 57 46 310 70

25/05/2018 14:24 16.1 9.8 66 37 310 56

25/05/2018 14:39 16 8.9 63 41 310 65


62

25/05/2018 14:59 16.6 10 65 35 300 56

25/05/2018 15:11 15.9 9.2 64 44 300 67

25/05/2018 15:22 15.5 9.9 69 43 300 61

25/05/2018 15:36 15.2 10.1 72 33 310 57

25/05/2018 16:00 14.9 10.5 75 28 300 52

25/05/2018 16:04 14.7 10.6 76 30 300 52

25/05/2018 16:23 14.4 10.3 76 41 300 59

25/05/2018 16:34 13.9 10.8 82 33 300 56

25/05/2018 17:00 13.6 11.5 87 28 310 43

25/05/2018 17:13 13.4 11.5 88 28 310 54

25/05/2018 17:30 13.1 11.7 91 24 300 39

25/05/2018 18:00 13.6 12.3 92 22 310 39

25/05/2018 18:04 13.7 12.2 91 28 300 56

25/05/2018 18:19 13.6 12.2 91 28 290 48

25/05/2018 18:30 13.7 11.7 88 35 290 52

25/05/2018 18:31 13.7 11.4 86 35 290 54

25/05/2018 18:53 13.9 11.6 86 28 300 54

25/05/2018 19:30 13.6 12 90 19 270 56

25/05/2018 19:43 14 11.4 84 33 280 54

25/05/2018 20:00 13.7 11.5 87 22 290 31

25/05/2018 20:12 14 12 88 28 280 52

25/05/2018 20:30 14.3 11.4 83 24 280 43

25/05/2018 21:00 14.4 11.1 81 26 280 46

25/05/2018 21:01 14.5 11 80 28 280 46

25/05/2018 21:28 14.1 11.3 83 28 270 59

25/05/2018 21:57 15 10.8 76 30 270 48

25/05/2018 22:30 14.4 11.8 84 24 280 48

25/05/2018 22:46 14.2 11.7 85 28 280 46

25/05/2018 23:00 14 11.6 85 30 270 44

25/05/2018 23:22 15 11.6 80 30 280 52

25/05/2018 23:54 14.9 12 83 28 280 50

26/05/2018 0:05 14.7 12.8 88 31 270 52

26/05/2018 0:16 14.5 12.6 88 28 270 46

26/05/2018 0:30 14.4 12.1 86 37 270 63

26/05/2018 0:45 14.6 12.4 87 28 260 48

26/05/2018 1:00 14.4 12.6 89 24 260 41

26/05/2018 1:30 14.6 12.6 88 22 260 44

26/05/2018 2:00 14.1 12.4 89 24 250 44

26/05/2018 2:30 14.1 12.3 89 19 250 30

26/05/2018 3:00 13.7 11.8 88 24 230 41

26/05/2018 3:30 13.6 12.3 92 7 280 15

26/05/2018 4:00 14.1 13.1 94 13 240 26

26/05/2018 4:30 14.1 12.6 91 15 260 26

26/05/2018 5:00 13.9 12.2 89 13 250 20

26/05/2018 5:30 14.3 12.8 91 15 250 26

26/05/2018 6:00 14.3 12.9 91 17 250 30

26/05/2018 6:30 14.3 12.9 91 26 240 39

26/05/2018 7:00 14.1 13.2 94 28 230 46

26/05/2018 7:30 14.4 13.1 92 22 240 35

26/05/2018 8:00 14.1 12.3 89 28 230 50

26/05/2018 8:30 14.1 12.8 92 24 240 44

26/05/2018 9:00 14.7 13.2 91 20 240 37

26/05/2018 9:30 15.4 13.9 91 22 260 37


63

26/05/2018 10:00 15.5 14.2 92 19 240 39

26/05/2018 10:25 16.6 13.6 82 28 220 46

26/05/2018 10:38 16.9 12.5 75 30 210 50

26/05/2018 10:59 17.6 13 74 28 210 46

26/05/2018 11:12 15.5 12.4 82 35 210 56

26/05/2018 11:30 17.1 12.8 76 22 210 44

26/05/2018 12:00 18 13.5 75 30 210 50

26/05/2018 12:30 15.5 13 85 26 200 44

26/05/2018 13:00 16.9 12.7 76 26 220 39

26/05/2018 13:30 16 12.3 79 24 210 35

26/05/2018 14:00 17.2 12.1 72 22 230 39

26/05/2018 14:30 16.1 13.8 86 13 240 26

26/05/2018 15:00 15.8 13.7 87 15 230 26

26/05/2018 15:30 16.4 12.3 77 20 230 31

26/05/2018 16:00 16.2 11.5 74 17 240 28

26/05/2018 16:30 16.1 10.3 68 13 240 24

26/05/2018 17:00 15.4 10.5 73 13 250 19

26/05/2018 17:30 14.7 10.1 74 7 250 13

26/05/2018 18:00 14.6 10.4 76 7 270 9

26/05/2018 18:30 14.3 10.8 79 2 280 7

26/05/2018 19:00 14.6 12.5 87 7 270 13

26/05/2018 19:30 14.7 13.1 90 4 280 11

26/05/2018 20:00 14.7 12.3 86 6 270 9

26/05/2018 20:30 14.9 11.9 82 6 290 11

26/05/2018 21:00 15.6 11.9 79 7 270 19

26/05/2018 21:30 15.5 12.8 84 9 270 17

26/05/2018 22:00 15.1 13 87 11 290 19

26/05/2018 22:30 14.9 13.2 90 9 270 17

26/05/2018 23:00 15 13.1 88 7 290 15

26/05/2018 23:30 15.2 13.2 88 13 260 26


64

North Walpole AWS (BoM) (73m)

Date Time (AWST)

Temperature (°C)

Dew Point (°C)


Wind Speed (km/h)


Wind Gust (km/h)

24/05/2018 0:00 16.3 0.4 34 13 40 17

24/05/2018 0:30 16.3 0.8 35 13 30 17

24/05/2018 1:00 15.7 0.7 36 13 30 20

24/05/2018 1:30 15.5 0.9 37 13 30 17

24/05/2018 2:00 16.7 0.4 33 13 30 20

24/05/2018 2:30 17.5 0.2 31 15 30 24

24/05/2018 3:00 18 0.2 30 15 20 24

24/05/2018 3:30 17.9 0.1 30 17 30 28

24/05/2018 4:00 17.9 -0.4 29 19 20 33

24/05/2018 4:30 18.1 -0.2 29 22 20 37

24/05/2018 5:00 17.9 -0.4 29 22 20 39

24/05/2018 5:30 17.5 -0.2 30 20 30 31

24/05/2018 6:00 17.2 -0.1 31 20 30 33

24/05/2018 6:30 17.2 -0.1 31 22 30 35

24/05/2018 7:00 17.1 -0.1 31 22 20 37

24/05/2018 7:30 17.2 -0.1 31 24 20 39

24/05/2018 8:00 17.2 0.4 32 22 20 35

24/05/2018 8:30 17.5 0.6 32 22 20 35

24/05/2018 9:00 18.7 1.7 32 20 20 35

24/05/2018 9:30 20.1 2.5 31 19 20 35

24/05/2018 10:00 21.2 3.4 31 19 20 31

24/05/2018 11:30 22.6 3.7 29 0 0

24/05/2018 12:00 22.9 3.4 28 17 360 31

24/05/2018 12:30 22.7 4.2 30 13 360 24

24/05/2018 13:00 23 3.5 28 15 10 31

24/05/2018 13:30 23.2 4.7 30 15 20 28

24/05/2018 14:00 23.4 5.3 31 13 10 19

24/05/2018 14:30 23.4 5.8 32 13 10 24

24/05/2018 15:00 23.8 5.2 30 15 360 30

24/05/2018 15:30 23.9 5.3 30 13 360 30

24/05/2018 16:00 24 6.3 32 17 360 35

24/05/2018 16:30 24.1 6.8 33 17 360 31

24/05/2018 17:00 23.9 5.8 31 17 10 28

24/05/2018 17:30 24 5.8 31 17 20 28

24/05/2018 18:00 23.6 5.5 31 17 20 30

24/05/2018 18:30 23.9 4.8 29 15 30 28

24/05/2018 19:00 23.6 4 28 15 30 31

24/05/2018 19:30 23.8 2.6 25 15 40 26

24/05/2018 20:00 23.7 2.5 25 15 20 26

24/05/2018 20:30 23.8 2.6 25 17 30 28

24/05/2018 21:00 23.7 2.5 25 13 30 26

24/05/2018 21:30 22.8 3.9 29 13 40 26

24/05/2018 21:48 22.3 4.4 31 28 350 50

24/05/2018 22:00 20.2 7.6 44 22 300 31

24/05/2018 22:28 19.3 10.3 56 28 330 56

24/05/2018 22:30 18.7 10.5 59 28 330 56

24/05/2018 23:00 16.3 12.5 78 24 350 41


65

24/05/2018 23:25 16.4 12.8 79 28 10 54

24/05/2018 23:30 16.4 12.6 78 28 10 54

25/05/2018 0:00 16 12.2 78 24 360 52

25/05/2018 0:06 16 12.4 79 28 360 46

25/05/2018 0:30 15.8 12.5 81 24 10 46

25/05/2018 0:41 16 12.6 80 28 10 46

25/05/2018 1:00 15.7 12.3 80 35 20 63

25/05/2018 1:30 15.2 13.1 87 28 10 57

25/05/2018 1:43 15 13 88 41 310 56

25/05/2018 1:44 13.7 11.8 88 44 310 69

25/05/2018 2:00 12.5 12.3 99 30 320 43

25/05/2018 2:30 12.4 12.2 99 17 320 24

25/05/2018 3:00 12.4 12.4 100 15 310 20

25/05/2018 3:30 13.2 13 99 22 340 41

25/05/2018 4:00 13.1 12.6 97 17 340 33

25/05/2018 4:30 13.2 11.4 89 24 330 39

25/05/2018 5:00 12.6 11.3 92 19 330 37

25/05/2018 5:30 12.5 10.9 90 13 350 30

25/05/2018 6:00 13 10.5 85 20 340 33

25/05/2018 6:30 12.7 10.2 85 20 340 33

25/05/2018 7:00 12.3 10 86 17 340 31

25/05/2018 7:30 12.4 9.8 84 20 340 30

25/05/2018 8:00 12.6 9.8 83 20 350 33

25/05/2018 8:30 13 10.2 83 17 340 31

25/05/2018 9:00 12.5 10.6 88 22 320 31

25/05/2018 9:30 12.5 10.4 87 22 320 31

25/05/2018 10:00 12.8 10.7 87 19 330 30

25/05/2018 10:30 13 10.9 87 15 350 28

25/05/2018 11:00 13.4 11.1 86 17 360 26

25/05/2018 11:30 14.7 10.7 77 17 350 37

25/05/2018 11:51 15 9.4 69 28 340 52

25/05/2018 12:00 15.3 9.7 69 30 330 50

25/05/2018 12:30 13.9 9.1 73 37 320 56

25/05/2018 13:00 12.7 9.3 80 26 330 46

25/05/2018 13:30 12.9 9.2 78 22 350 31

25/05/2018 14:00 13.7 9.4 75 22 360 37

25/05/2018 14:26 14.5 8.2 66 28 350 54

25/05/2018 14:30 14.3 8.3 67 28 350 54

25/05/2018 15:00 14.3 8.3 67 31 340 65

25/05/2018 15:30 14 8.6 70 30 340 50

25/05/2018 16:00 14.8 9 68 26 340 46

25/05/2018 16:07 14.9 8.6 66 28 340 50

25/05/2018 16:30 14.4 8.4 67 28 330 48

25/05/2018 17:00 14.3 8.5 68 28 330 48

25/05/2018 17:30 14.1 8.5 69 33 330 56

25/05/2018 18:00 13.6 8.9 73 28 340 56

25/05/2018 18:30 12.9 9.5 80 26 340 46

25/05/2018 18:32 12.9 9.7 81 28 340 46

25/05/2018 19:00 12.2 10.4 89 24 340 46

25/05/2018 19:30 12 11.4 96 24 350 43

25/05/2018 20:00 12.2 11.6 96 22 350 48

25/05/2018 20:10 12.3 11.8 97 28 340 50

25/05/2018 20:30 12.3 12 98 30 340 44


66

25/05/2018 20:34 12.3 12 98 28 340 46

25/05/2018 21:00 12.5 11.6 94 33 330 52

25/05/2018 21:30 12.5 12 97 30 340 48

25/05/2018 22:00 12.5 12 97 31 330 50

25/05/2018 22:30 12.5 12.2 98 33 320 52

25/05/2018 23:00 12.6 12.3 98 37 320 54

25/05/2018 23:02 12.6 12.1 97 35 320 54

25/05/2018 23:30 12.6 12.1 97 39 320 57

26/05/2018 0:00 12.6 12.4 99 35 320 54

26/05/2018 0:30 12.5 12.3 99 33 320 46

26/05/2018 0:32 12.6 12.4 99 35 320 57

26/05/2018 1:00 12.8 12.6 99 39 320 59

26/05/2018 1:30 12.9 12.7 99 41 310 61

26/05/2018 2:00 12.9 12.7 99 28 310 39

26/05/2018 2:30 13 12.8 99 22 290 35

26/05/2018 3:00 13.5 13.3 99 24 290 41

26/05/2018 3:30 13.5 13.3 99 26 270 48

26/05/2018 4:00 13.1 12.9 99 26 270 48

26/05/2018 4:03 13 12.8 99 28 270 48

26/05/2018 4:30 13.6 12.5 93 20 280 35

26/05/2018 5:00 13.8 11.8 88 26 280 63

26/05/2018 5:01 13.6 11.7 88 28 280 63

26/05/2018 5:30 13.9 11.9 88 24 270 41

26/05/2018 6:00 13.6 12 90 22 290 37

26/05/2018 6:30 13.8 12 89 22 270 33

26/05/2018 7:00 14.1 11.3 83 20 270 33

26/05/2018 7:30 14.3 10.7 79 19 270 28

26/05/2018 8:00 14.8 10.8 77 17 270 24

26/05/2018 8:30 14.8 11.8 82 17 260 26

26/05/2018 9:00 14.2 13.7 97 13 270 20

26/05/2018 9:30 14.4 14.2 99 9 270 15

26/05/2018 10:00 16.1 15.6 97 11 280 20

26/05/2018 10:30 16.6 12.8 78 19 250 28

26/05/2018 11:00 16.2 12.2 77 17 240 30

26/05/2018 11:30 17 11.7 71 20 240 43

26/05/2018 12:00 17.8 11.8 68 22 240 39

26/05/2018 12:30 16.8 11.5 71 24 250 39

26/05/2018 12:48 17.2 11.9 71 28 250 54

26/05/2018 13:00 17.6 11.6 68 28 250 48

26/05/2018 13:30 17.6 12.9 74 26 250 43

26/05/2018 13:56 17.4 11 66 28 250 50

26/05/2018 14:00 17.5 11.1 66 31 250 50

26/05/2018 14:30 16.9 11.2 69 30 250 52

26/05/2018 15:00 16.3 12.3 77 22 250 35

26/05/2018 15:12 16.2 11.6 74 28 260 46

26/05/2018 15:30 16.4 12.2 76 22 260 44

26/05/2018 16:00 16.2 12.4 78 22 260 37

26/05/2018 16:30 15.9 11.7 76 20 260 35

26/05/2018 17:00 15.5 10.7 73 20 270 43

26/05/2018 17:30 14.5 9.3 71 17 260 24

26/05/2018 18:00 13.9 9.1 73 15 280 22

26/05/2018 18:30 14 9.2 73 15 280 24

26/05/2018 19:00 13.6 9.1 74 13 290 20


67

26/05/2018 19:30 13.9 9.7 76 15 310 20

26/05/2018 20:00 13.7 9.9 78 15 330 20

26/05/2018 20:30 12.5 11.2 92 17 310 26

26/05/2018 21:00 13 12.8 99 22 320 33

26/05/2018 21:30 12.7 12.7 100 20 320 30

26/05/2018 22:00 13 13 100 17 320 26

26/05/2018 22:30 13.2 13.2 100 22 310 33

26/05/2018 23:00 13.4 13.4 100 26 310 35

26/05/2018 23:30 13.6 13.6 100 26 320 44


68

Albany Airport AWS (BoM) (68.4m ASL)

Date Time (AWST)

Temperature (°C)

Dew Point (°C)


Wind Speed (km/h)


Wind Gust (km/h)

24/05/2018 0:00 9.9 n/a n/a 11 30 11

24/05/2018 0:30 9 n/a n/a 11 40 11

24/05/2018 1:00 9.2 n/a n/a 9 30 11

24/05/2018 1:30 9.4 n/a n/a 11 30 13

24/05/2018 2:00 8.7 n/a n/a 11 30 11

24/05/2018 2:30 9.3 n/a n/a 11 30 13

24/05/2018 3:00 8.5 n/a n/a 11 10 13

24/05/2018 3:30 10 n/a n/a 11 30 11

24/05/2018 4:00 9.9 n/a n/a 9 30 11

24/05/2018 4:30 9.8 n/a n/a 9 20 11

24/05/2018 5:00 10 n/a n/a 11 30 11

24/05/2018 5:30 9.8 n/a n/a 11 20 13

24/05/2018 6:00 10.1 n/a n/a 11 30 13

24/05/2018 6:30 11 n/a n/a 13 30 15

24/05/2018 7:00 11.3 n/a n/a 13 40 17

24/05/2018 7:30 13.9 n/a n/a 11 10 13

24/05/2018 8:00 14.9 n/a n/a 9 30 13

24/05/2018 8:30 15.4 n/a n/a 6 30 9

24/05/2018 9:00 17.5 n/a n/a 13 30 15

24/05/2018 9:30 21.7 n/a n/a 26 10 43

24/05/2018 10:00 23 n/a n/a 31 10 41

24/05/2018 10:30 24.2 n/a n/a 35 10 46

24/05/2018 11:00 25 n/a n/a 35 10 48

24/05/2018 11:30 26.2 n/a n/a 35 10 61

24/05/2018 12:00 27.8 n/a n/a 33 360 48

24/05/2018 12:04 27.1 n/a n/a 37 360 57

24/05/2018 12:30 27 n/a n/a 37 360 50

24/05/2018 13:00 26.4 n/a n/a 37 360 50

24/05/2018 13:30 27.2 n/a n/a 31 360 48

24/05/2018 14:00 25.7 n/a n/a 33 360 44

24/05/2018 14:30 26.2 n/a n/a 33 10 46

24/05/2018 15:00 25.7 n/a n/a 33 360 46

24/05/2018 15:27 25.9 n/a n/a 30 10 50

24/05/2018 15:30 25.9 n/a n/a 33 10 50

24/05/2018 15:37 26 n/a n/a 35 360 57

24/05/2018 16:00 25.6 n/a n/a 35 360 48

24/05/2018 16:30 25.4 n/a n/a 30 10 39

24/05/2018 17:00 24.7 n/a n/a 26 10 39

24/05/2018 17:30 24.8 n/a n/a 30 10 43

24/05/2018 18:00 24.9 n/a n/a 26 10 33

24/05/2018 18:30 24.9 n/a n/a 28 10 39

24/05/2018 19:00 24.5 n/a n/a 28 20 43

24/05/2018 19:01 24.5 n/a n/a 30 20 48

24/05/2018 19:30 23.8 n/a n/a 31 30 50

24/05/2018 20:00 23.4 n/a n/a 31 30 48

24/05/2018 20:17 23.7 n/a n/a 37 30 56

24/05/2018 20:30 23.9 n/a n/a 39 30 57

24/05/2018 21:00 23.8 n/a n/a 33 40 50


69

24/05/2018 21:13 23.8 n/a n/a 37 30 56

24/05/2018 21:30 24.2 n/a n/a 39 30 59

24/05/2018 22:00 23.9 n/a n/a 39 30 59

24/05/2018 22:30 24.3 n/a n/a 41 30 56

24/05/2018 22:35 24.1 n/a n/a 37 30 56

24/05/2018 23:00 24.4 n/a n/a 35 30 46

24/05/2018 23:12 24.5 n/a n/a 35 30 54

24/05/2018 23:30 24.7 n/a n/a 41 10 59

25/05/2018 0:00 24.7 n/a n/a 48 10 69

25/05/2018 0:20 22.4 n/a n/a 57 350 80

25/05/2018 0:30 20.5 n/a n/a 56 350 81

25/05/2018 0:34 20.2 n/a n/a 57 350 81

25/05/2018 0:42 20.2 n/a n/a 39 350 54

25/05/2018 0:43 20.3 n/a n/a 39 350 61

25/05/2018 0:56 21 n/a n/a 57 10 69

25/05/2018 0:58 21 n/a n/a 57 10 76

25/05/2018 1:00 21 n/a n/a 57 10 76

25/05/2018 1:04 21.1 n/a n/a 57 10 91

25/05/2018 1:30 21 n/a n/a 65 360 93

25/05/2018 1:58 20.1 n/a n/a 65 360 98

25/05/2018 2:00 19.9 n/a n/a 65 360 98

25/05/2018 2:11 18 n/a n/a 61 360 94

25/05/2018 2:30 16 n/a n/a 56 360 81

25/05/2018 2:37 15.9 n/a n/a 54 360 70

25/05/2018 2:38 16 n/a n/a 56 360 74

25/05/2018 3:00 15.7 n/a n/a 43 350 59

25/05/2018 3:02 15.5 n/a n/a 41 350 59

25/05/2018 3:30 15.4 n/a n/a 30 350 39

25/05/2018 4:00 15.6 n/a n/a 31 350 43

25/05/2018 4:30 15.2 n/a n/a 26 350 35

25/05/2018 5:00 15.1 n/a n/a 24 330 31

25/05/2018 5:30 15.2 n/a n/a 24 330 35

25/05/2018 6:00 14.7 n/a n/a 20 330 28

25/05/2018 6:24 15.2 n/a n/a 28 330 52

25/05/2018 6:30 15.1 n/a n/a 33 330 52

25/05/2018 7:00 13.2 n/a n/a 35 330 52

25/05/2018 7:02 13.1 n/a n/a 33 330 52

25/05/2018 7:30 13 n/a n/a 22 350 30

25/05/2018 8:00 14.3 n/a n/a 26 350 39

25/05/2018 8:30 14.7 n/a n/a 30 350 41

25/05/2018 9:00 14.8 n/a n/a 28 340 41

25/05/2018 9:30 15.4 n/a n/a 28 350 41

25/05/2018 10:00 15.6 n/a n/a 26 350 39

25/05/2018 10:30 15.1 n/a n/a 31 340 43

25/05/2018 10:55 15.4 n/a n/a 31 330 50

25/05/2018 11:00 15.4 n/a n/a 31 330 50

25/05/2018 11:30 15.1 n/a n/a 28 330 43

25/05/2018 11:31 15.5 n/a n/a 28 330 46

25/05/2018 12:00 16.3 n/a n/a 31 340 48

25/05/2018 12:30 17.2 n/a n/a 33 340 46

25/05/2018 13:00 17.3 n/a n/a 33 340 46

25/05/2018 13:09 17.4 n/a n/a 31 330 50

25/05/2018 13:30 17.1 n/a n/a 35 330 57


70

25/05/2018 14:00 16.7 n/a n/a 35 330 52

25/05/2018 14:04 16.6 n/a n/a 37 330 57

25/05/2018 14:30 15.6 n/a n/a 35 320 52

25/05/2018 14:31 15.6 n/a n/a 33 320 52

25/05/2018 15:00 15.5 n/a n/a 35 330 56

25/05/2018 15:30 14.6 n/a n/a 35 350 56

25/05/2018 16:00 14.8 n/a n/a 39 350 56

25/05/2018 16:02 14.8 n/a n/a 37 350 56

25/05/2018 16:30 14.2 n/a n/a 33 350 46

25/05/2018 17:00 13.8 n/a n/a 35 350 54

25/05/2018 17:30 14 n/a n/a 35 350 52

25/05/2018 17:58 14 n/a n/a 35 350 54

25/05/2018 18:00 13.8 n/a n/a 35 340 54

25/05/2018 18:30 14.3 n/a n/a 33 350 50

25/05/2018 18:59 14.4 n/a n/a 35 340 56

25/05/2018 19:00 14.4 n/a n/a 37 340 56

25/05/2018 19:30 13.6 n/a n/a 35 340 54

25/05/2018 20:00 12.8 n/a n/a 31 350 43

25/05/2018 20:14 12.8 n/a n/a 31 350 50

25/05/2018 20:30 12.7 n/a n/a 31 350 46

25/05/2018 21:00 13.2 n/a n/a 35 350 50

25/05/2018 21:30 13.5 n/a n/a 37 340 50

25/05/2018 21:41 13.5 n/a n/a 35 340 54

25/05/2018 22:00 13.7 n/a n/a 35 340 52

25/05/2018 22:02 14 n/a n/a 37 340 65

25/05/2018 22:30 13.2 n/a n/a 31 340 44

25/05/2018 22:43 13.4 n/a n/a 35 340 54

25/05/2018 23:00 13.1 n/a n/a 35 340 54

25/05/2018 23:30 13.4 n/a n/a 35 340 48

25/05/2018 23:39 13.6 n/a n/a 31 330 50

26/05/2018 0:00 13.7 n/a n/a 35 330 50

26/05/2018 0:30 13.6 n/a n/a 33 320 50

26/05/2018 0:32 13.5 n/a n/a 30 320 48

26/05/2018 1:00 14 n/a n/a 33 330 52

26/05/2018 1:30 14.1 n/a n/a 33 330 52

26/05/2018 2:00 14.1 n/a n/a 31 320 48

26/05/2018 2:03 14.2 n/a n/a 33 320 52

26/05/2018 2:30 13.1 n/a n/a 31 300 44

26/05/2018 2:32 13 n/a n/a 31 300 44

26/05/2018 2:58 12.8 n/a n/a 28 320 39

26/05/2018 3:00 12.8 n/a n/a 28 320 39

26/05/2018 3:30 13 n/a n/a 33 310 48

26/05/2018 4:00 13 n/a n/a 35 300 48

26/05/2018 4:30 13.3 n/a n/a 39 300 52

26/05/2018 5:00 13 n/a n/a 33 300 46

26/05/2018 5:24 13.2 n/a n/a 35 290 54

26/05/2018 5:30 13.1 n/a n/a 37 290 54

26/05/2018 6:00 13 n/a n/a 33 290 43

26/05/2018 6:17 12.9 n/a n/a 31 290 39

26/05/2018 6:30 12.7 n/a n/a 31 290 39

26/05/2018 6:44 12.8 n/a n/a 31 290 44

26/05/2018 7:00 12.8 n/a n/a 31 290 41

26/05/2018 7:30 13 n/a n/a 33 290 43


71

26/05/2018 8:00 13.7 n/a n/a 33 290 46

26/05/2018 8:30 14.5 n/a n/a 30 280 43

26/05/2018 9:00 15.9 n/a n/a 31 280 43

26/05/2018 9:30 16.3 n/a n/a 28 280 39

26/05/2018 10:00 17.2 n/a n/a 24 270 35

26/05/2018 10:30 18 n/a n/a 31 260 41

26/05/2018 11:00 17.6 n/a n/a 26 250 39

26/05/2018 11:05 17.2 n/a n/a 28 250 46

26/05/2018 11:30 17.8 n/a n/a 31 260 43

26/05/2018 12:00 17.8 n/a n/a 31 250 43

26/05/2018 12:30 19.2 n/a n/a 33 260 44

26/05/2018 12:36 19.1 n/a n/a 33 250 52

26/05/2018 12:53 15.4 n/a n/a 33 240 44

26/05/2018 13:00 16.1 n/a n/a 28 250 44

26/05/2018 13:11 17.6 n/a n/a 26 250 37

26/05/2018 13:30 17.2 n/a n/a 30 270 41

26/05/2018 13:47 15.8 n/a n/a 28 260 46

26/05/2018 13:48 14.5 n/a n/a 39 230 50

26/05/2018 13:53 15 n/a n/a 31 240 50

26/05/2018 14:00 15.5 n/a n/a 24 250 41

26/05/2018 14:07 16.5 n/a n/a 26 260 39

26/05/2018 14:22 17.4 n/a n/a 28 250 46

26/05/2018 14:30 17 n/a n/a 33 250 48

26/05/2018 14:39 17 n/a n/a 30 250 48

26/05/2018 14:46 15.7 n/a n/a 24 250 33

26/05/2018 15:00 16.9 n/a n/a 28 250 41

26/05/2018 15:01 16.9 n/a n/a 28 250 41

26/05/2018 15:30 16.9 n/a n/a 30 250 43

26/05/2018 16:00 16.5 n/a n/a 30 260 44

26/05/2018 16:16 15.9 n/a n/a 30 270 48

26/05/2018 16:30 16.2 n/a n/a 28 270 41

26/05/2018 17:00 15.3 n/a n/a 24 270 31

26/05/2018 17:14 14.8 n/a n/a 24 280 30

26/05/2018 17:30 14.6 n/a n/a 22 270 28

26/05/2018 17:32 14.6 n/a n/a 22 270 28

26/05/2018 18:00 14.6 n/a n/a 22 280 30

26/05/2018 18:30 14.9 n/a n/a 26 270 37

26/05/2018 19:00 14.3 n/a n/a 26 270 37

26/05/2018 19:30 13.8 n/a n/a 22 280 30

26/05/2018 20:00 13 n/a n/a 17 290 20

26/05/2018 20:30 12.9 n/a n/a 17 300 26

26/05/2018 21:00 12.8 n/a n/a 17 300 22

26/05/2018 21:30 12.4 n/a n/a 19 320 26

26/05/2018 22:00 13.1 n/a n/a 20 300 26

26/05/2018 22:30 12.9 n/a n/a 24 300 33

26/05/2018 22:32 12.7 n/a n/a 24 310 33

26/05/2018 22:50 13 n/a n/a 22 300 28

26/05/2018 22:51 13 n/a n/a 22 300 31

26/05/2018 22:53 12.9 n/a n/a 22 300 31

26/05/2018 23:00 12.8 n/a n/a 24 300 31

26/05/2018 23:11 12.7 n/a n/a 24 310 31

26/05/2018 23:21 12.4 n/a n/a 22 310 31

26/05/2018 23:30 12.3 n/a n/a 20 310 30


72


73

Stirlings North AWS (BoM) (236m ASL)

Date Time (AWST)

Temperature (°C)

Dew Point (°C)


Wind Speed (km/h)


Wind Gust (km/h)

23/05/2018 18:00 18.1 -1.4 27 6 30 7

23/05/2018 18:30 16.4 -0.8 31 2 50 6

23/05/2018 19:00 15.4 -0.7 33 6 50 7

23/05/2018 19:30 14.7 -0.8 34 6 50 7

23/05/2018 20:00 14 -0.9 36 4 50 6

23/05/2018 20:30 13.1 -0.9 38 4 40 7

23/05/2018 21:00 13.3 -1.4 36 6 30 7

23/05/2018 21:30 12.1 -1.6 38 4 50 6

23/05/2018 22:00 12.1 -1.3 39 4 50 7

23/05/2018 22:19 6.8 -2.8 50 0 0 4

23/05/2018 22:30 8.3 -1 52 2 80 7

23/05/2018 23:00 7.4 -2.1 51 4 70 6

23/05/2018 23:30 5.2 -2.2 59 0 0 2

24/05/2018 0:00 5.2 -2.2 59 0 0 4

24/05/2018 0:30 4.7 -2.8 58 2 90 4

24/05/2018 1:00 3.9 -2.6 62 2 120 4

24/05/2018 1:30 7.1 -1.7 53 6 80 7

24/05/2018 2:00 6.8 -1.9 54 6 90 7

24/05/2018 2:30 5.9 -1.9 57 6 90 7

24/05/2018 3:00 5.7 -2 58 4 90 6

24/05/2018 3:30 6 -1.9 57 6 90 7

24/05/2018 4:00 6.2 -1.8 56 4 90 6

24/05/2018 4:30 6.5 -1.9 55 2 80 6

24/05/2018 5:00 6.5 -1.9 55 7 90 9

24/05/2018 5:30 6.1 -2.1 56 4 100 7

24/05/2018 6:00 6.2 -2.1 55 6 90 7

24/05/2018 6:30 6.4 -2 55 6 90 7

24/05/2018 6:54 11.7 -2.2 38 9 30 17

24/05/2018 7:30 12.7 -2.2 35 9 30 19

24/05/2018 8:00 13.4 -2.1 34 9 30 19

24/05/2018 8:30 15.5 -2.2 30 11 20 19

24/05/2018 9:00 18.1 -1.8 26 15 10 30

24/05/2018 9:30 20.6 -2.3 21 22 10 35

24/05/2018 10:00 22.3 -2.3 19 24 10 35

24/05/2018 10:30 23.3 -2.4 18 26 360 44

24/05/2018 10:36 23.7 -2.5 17 28 360 46

24/05/2018 11:00 24.1 -2.4 17 31 360 46

24/05/2018 11:12 24.4 -2.2 17 31 360 57

24/05/2018 11:30 24.7 -2 17 28 360 41

24/05/2018 11:41 24.9 -2.1 17 30 360 48

24/05/2018 12:00 25.4 -1.7 17 28 360 44

24/05/2018 12:12 24.5 -2.1 17 31 360 50

24/05/2018 12:30 24.2 -2.2 17 28 350 41

24/05/2018 12:39 24.6 -2.4 17 28 360 46

24/05/2018 13:00 24.5 -2.4 17 26 360 41

24/05/2018 13:30 25.1 -2.5 16 24 360 35

24/05/2018 14:00 25.6 -2.3 16 28 360 43


74

24/05/2018 14:10 25.6 -1.2 17 28 360 50

24/05/2018 14:30 25.6 -1.6 17 24 360 37

24/05/2018 15:00 25.6 -1.5 17 26 360 41

24/05/2018 15:30 25.2 -1.6 17 28 360 41

24/05/2018 16:00 25.4 -0.5 18 26 360 41

24/05/2018 16:30 24.7 -1.3 18 20 10 35

24/05/2018 17:00 24.3 -1.4 18 19 10 31

24/05/2018 17:30 23.7 -1.7 18 20 20 33

24/05/2018 18:00 22.7 -2.2 19 17 20 30

24/05/2018 18:30 22.9 -2.1 19 19 30 41

24/05/2018 19:00 22.1 -1.5 21 19 40 30

24/05/2018 19:30 21.7 -1.6 21 20 50 35

24/05/2018 20:00 21.7 -1.4 21 24 50 43

24/05/2018 20:30 21.4 -1.1 22 22 50 39

24/05/2018 21:00 21.5 -0.8 22 24 40 41

24/05/2018 21:30 21.9 -0.8 22 28 40 54

24/05/2018 21:43 22.3 -0.8 21 28 30 48

24/05/2018 21:57 22.5 -1 21 30 30 56

24/05/2018 22:08 22.5 -1 21 28 30 52

24/05/2018 22:22 22.6 -1 21 31 30 56

24/05/2018 23:00 22.6 -1.1 21 22 30 39

24/05/2018 23:30 22.5 -1.1 21 28 10 43

24/05/2018 23:35 22.7 -0.9 21 28 10 46

24/05/2018 23:46 22.7 1.3 24 35 360 59

25/05/2018 0:00 20.5 5.7 38 41 340 61

25/05/2018 0:01 20.6 5.7 38 41 340 63

25/05/2018 0:14 18.9 7.8 48 44 350 74

25/05/2018 0:26 18.4 8.3 52 43 10 67

25/05/2018 0:38 17.8 9 56 41 10 76

25/05/2018 0:49 17.8 8.9 56 37 10 69

25/05/2018 1:00 17.7 8.9 56 35 10 54

25/05/2018 1:04 17.7 9 57 37 10 56

25/05/2018 1:15 17.6 9.1 57 35 10 57

25/05/2018 1:29 17.1 9.6 61 41 10 70

25/05/2018 1:42 15.2 10.9 75 35 360 61

25/05/2018 1:57 14.8 11.4 80 35 360 56

25/05/2018 2:11 14.4 11.7 84 33 360 59

25/05/2018 2:30 14.2 12.3 88 35 350 50

25/05/2018 3:00 13.8 11.1 84 20 340 30

25/05/2018 3:30 13.8 11 83 22 350 37

25/05/2018 4:00 13.5 11 85 19 350 31

25/05/2018 4:30 13.7 11.3 85 22 350 33

25/05/2018 5:00 13.7 11.4 86 15 350 24

25/05/2018 5:30 13.5 11.2 86 17 340 24

25/05/2018 6:00 13.2 11 87 13 330 20

25/05/2018 6:30 13.7 11.3 85 13 360 20

25/05/2018 7:00 14 11.5 85 19 360 33

25/05/2018 7:30 11.6 9.7 88 24 290 54

25/05/2018 7:32 11.8 10.2 90 28 300 56

25/05/2018 8:00 13 9.1 77 28 320 41

25/05/2018 8:30 12.4 8.6 78 26 330 41

25/05/2018 9:00 11.6 9.6 88 17 340 26

25/05/2018 9:30 11.8 9.6 86 19 350 30


75

25/05/2018 10:00 12.3 10.1 86 19 350 30

25/05/2018 10:30 13.9 9.7 76 28 320 44

25/05/2018 11:00 13 9.3 78 26 330 39

25/05/2018 11:30 14 9.3 73 22 320 35

25/05/2018 12:00 14.5 9.3 71 30 330 44

25/05/2018 12:12 14.5 9.4 71 28 330 46

25/05/2018 12:30 15.1 9.6 70 28 330 43

25/05/2018 12:47 15.7 8.8 63 28 320 46

25/05/2018 13:00 16 9 63 31 320 44

25/05/2018 13:04 15.4 8.3 63 31 320 50

25/05/2018 13:30 15.8 8.6 62 31 330 44

25/05/2018 13:40 16 8.6 61 31 330 50

25/05/2018 14:00 16.3 8.9 62 31 330 46

25/05/2018 14:30 16 7.9 59 31 330 46

25/05/2018 14:31 15.7 7.9 60 33 330 54

25/05/2018 14:59 15.5 7.4 58 31 320 54

25/05/2018 15:17 15 7.7 62 35 320 54

25/05/2018 15:30 14.4 7.9 65 33 310 48

25/05/2018 15:33 14.4 8.1 66 33 310 52

25/05/2018 16:00 13.7 8.1 69 33 320 46

25/05/2018 16:30 12.6 8.8 78 31 320 46

25/05/2018 17:00 12 9.2 83 22 320 33

25/05/2018 17:30 12.2 8.9 80 31 330 52

25/05/2018 18:00 11.8 8.4 80 28 330 41

25/05/2018 18:15 12.3 9.2 81 30 340 50

25/05/2018 18:30 12.5 9.5 82 30 340 50

25/05/2018 19:00 12.4 9.7 84 24 350 39

25/05/2018 19:30 12.8 9.6 81 26 340 39

25/05/2018 20:00 12.8 9.4 80 26 340 43

25/05/2018 20:30 12.9 9.4 79 28 340 43

25/05/2018 20:51 12.9 9.4 79 30 330 50

25/05/2018 21:04 13 9.5 79 31 330 50

25/05/2018 21:15 13.1 9.3 78 30 330 50

25/05/2018 21:30 13.1 9.2 77 30 330 48

25/05/2018 22:00 12.9 9.4 79 30 330 46

25/05/2018 22:25 13.2 9.5 78 33 330 52

25/05/2018 23:00 12.8 10.1 84 30 320 46

25/05/2018 23:22 12.9 10.2 84 28 320 48

26/05/2018 0:00 12.5 10.7 89 26 320 37

26/05/2018 0:30 12.6 10.8 89 26 320 41

26/05/2018 0:31 12.6 10.7 88 28 320 46

26/05/2018 1:00 12.8 10.6 86 28 320 43

26/05/2018 1:07 12.8 10.6 86 30 320 50

26/05/2018 1:30 12.7 10.5 86 31 320 44

26/05/2018 2:00 12.9 10.4 85 33 320 48

26/05/2018 2:15 13.1 10.3 83 33 310 52

26/05/2018 2:30 13.2 10.4 83 33 310 52

26/05/2018 3:00 13.2 10.7 85 31 310 44

26/05/2018 3:10 13.4 10.5 83 31 310 50

26/05/2018 3:26 13.6 10.4 81 33 300 52

26/05/2018 3:41 13.4 10.5 83 31 300 50

26/05/2018 3:55 13.3 10.5 83 30 290 52

26/05/2018 4:17 13.5 10.2 80 30 290 48


76

26/05/2018 4:30 13.1 10.2 83 26 290 43

26/05/2018 5:00 13 10 82 26 290 37

26/05/2018 5:30 12.7 9.7 82 24 290 37

26/05/2018 6:00 12.5 9.7 83 20 290 31

26/05/2018 6:30 12.6 9.8 83 22 290 35

26/05/2018 7:00 12.3 9.7 84 20 290 31

26/05/2018 7:30 12.4 9.8 84 20 280 33

26/05/2018 8:00 12.8 10.2 84 20 280 31

26/05/2018 8:30 13.4 10.6 83 22 280 35

26/05/2018 9:00 14.1 11 82 26 280 37

26/05/2018 9:30 14.9 11.2 79 28 270 43

26/05/2018 10:00 14.9 11.6 81 24 270 35

26/05/2018 10:30 13.6 11.9 89 26 260 39

26/05/2018 11:00 13.8 12.8 94 17 260 24

26/05/2018 11:30 14.8 12.4 86 26 260 35

26/05/2018 12:00 15.3 12.1 81 22 250 35

26/05/2018 12:30 15.2 13 87 20 260 31

26/05/2018 13:00 14.3 11.5 83 24 260 41

26/05/2018 13:30 15.1 12.2 83 19 270 28

26/05/2018 14:00 15.7 12.4 81 13 260 20

26/05/2018 14:30 16 12.2 78 15 270 22

26/05/2018 15:00 17.4 11.5 68 22 260 35

26/05/2018 15:30 16.5 10.4 67 26 250 35

26/05/2018 16:00 16.2 10.6 69 22 260 37

26/05/2018 16:30 15.9 10.4 70 24 260 39

26/05/2018 17:00 15.2 10.1 72 20 250 33

26/05/2018 17:30 14.2 10.2 77 15 260 24

26/05/2018 18:00 13.9 10.3 79 13 260 19

26/05/2018 18:30 13.8 10.5 80 15 270 22

26/05/2018 19:00 13.2 10.3 83 11 280 20

26/05/2018 19:30 13.2 10.4 83 20 270 26

26/05/2018 20:00 13 10.5 85 17 270 26

26/05/2018 20:30 12.5 9.7 83 15 270 20

26/05/2018 21:00 12.2 9.5 84 11 290 17

26/05/2018 21:30 12 9.9 87 11 290 19

26/05/2018 22:00 11.7 9.8 88 9 310 15

26/05/2018 22:30 11.6 9.7 88 7 300 15

26/05/2018 23:00 12.1 9.9 86 9 300 19

26/05/2018 23:30 12.4 10.1 86 13 300 24


77

Stirlings South AWS (DPIRD) (147m ASL)

Date Time (AWST)

Temperature (°C)

Dew Point (°C)


Wind Speed (km/h)


Wind Gust (km/h)

23/05/2018 18:00 17 0 32 2 10 4

23/05/2018 18:30 14.3 0.1 38 2 330 4

23/05/2018 19:00 14.5 -0.7 35 0 0 6

23/05/2018 19:30 15.2 -0.3 35 4 40 7

23/05/2018 20:00 17 -0.6 30 7 30 13

23/05/2018 20:30 14.5 -1.2 34 0 0 6

23/05/2018 21:00 14.8 -0.8 34 2 280 6

23/05/2018 21:30 10.6 -1.4 43 6 210 11

23/05/2018 22:00 10.1 -1 46 6 210 11

23/05/2018 22:30 8 -1.3 52 4 200 7

23/05/2018 23:00 6.6 -2.3 53 0 0 4

23/05/2018 23:30 6.4 -1.9 55 2 210 6

24/05/2018 0:00 7.5 -1.2 54 2 200 6

24/05/2018 0:30 5.7 -2.2 57 2 200 4

24/05/2018 1:00 6.5 -1.6 56 2 200 6

24/05/2018 1:30 5.9 -1.9 57 4 180 7

24/05/2018 2:00 5.4 -1.8 60 4 190 7

24/05/2018 2:30 7.2 -1.3 55 4 200 7

24/05/2018 3:00 7.7 -1.1 54 4 200 11

24/05/2018 3:30 12 -1.2 40 4 90 7

24/05/2018 4:00 13.6 -1.4 35 2 290 7

24/05/2018 4:30 9.6 -1.3 46 4 190 7

24/05/2018 4:48 15.3 -1.4 32 4 290 15

24/05/2018 5:00 17.6 -2 26 9 360 22

24/05/2018 5:30 17.8 -1.9 26 11 20 26

24/05/2018 6:00 16.9 -2 27 9 20 20

24/05/2018 6:30 16.5 -2 28 9 20 19

24/05/2018 7:00 17.2 -2.1 27 11 30 20

24/05/2018 7:30 17.9 -2.2 25 20 10 39

24/05/2018 8:00 17.5 -2.1 26 19 10 35

24/05/2018 8:30 18.1 -2.1 25 24 10 44

24/05/2018 9:00 18.6 -2 25 24 360 39

24/05/2018 9:30 20.1 -1.7 23 24 10 37

24/05/2018 10:00 22.3 -1.3 21 20 10 39

24/05/2018 10:30 23.8 -1.4 19 17 10 33

24/05/2018 11:00 24.6 -1.5 18 26 360 50

24/05/2018 11:30 25.2 -0.8 18 26 360 54

24/05/2018 12:00 26.4 -0.4 17 20 350 39

24/05/2018 12:29 26.2 -0.8 17 28 360 50

24/05/2018 13:00 25.6 -1 17 26 360 44

24/05/2018 13:30 25.5 -1.6 17 24 350 37

24/05/2018 14:00 25.9 -1.7 16 19 10 39

24/05/2018 14:30 25.6 -1.7 16 19 360 37

24/05/2018 15:00 26 -0.8 17 22 360 37

24/05/2018 15:30 25.9 -0.9 17 22 360 41

24/05/2018 16:00 25.5 -0.8 18 15 10 35

24/05/2018 16:30 25.6 -0.3 18 17 360 41


78

24/05/2018 17:00 25.4 -0.7 18 17 360 33

24/05/2018 17:30 25 -0.9 18 19 10 35

24/05/2018 18:00 24.7 -1 18 17 10 33

24/05/2018 18:30 23.2 -1.9 19 13 30 28

24/05/2018 19:00 23.2 -1.5 19 17 30 37

24/05/2018 19:30 23.5 -1.4 19 24 30 43

24/05/2018 20:00 24.4 -1 19 24 30 46

24/05/2018 20:08 24.6 -0.9 18 28 20 56

24/05/2018 20:30 23.8 -0.8 20 26 20 46

24/05/2018 21:00 23.6 -0.8 20 24 30 44

24/05/2018 21:28 23.4 -0.6 20 28 30 56

24/05/2018 21:44 23.4 -0.5 20 28 30 59

24/05/2018 21:57 23.1 -0.6 21 28 30 52

24/05/2018 22:30 23.5 -0.7 20 22 30 44

24/05/2018 23:00 23.7 -0.7 20 20 30 37

24/05/2018 23:30 24.2 -0.7 19 26 10 57

24/05/2018 23:33 24.4 -0.8 19 28 10 57

24/05/2018 23:48 24.1 -0.7 19 33 360 61

25/05/2018 0:00 23.1 1.3 24 28 350 50

25/05/2018 0:03 23.2 2.3 25 30 350 57

25/05/2018 0:14 20.9 6.8 40 35 340 57

25/05/2018 0:26 20.9 6.6 39 39 350 67

25/05/2018 0:38 20.5 7.2 42 44 360 74

25/05/2018 0:49 19.4 8.6 50 39 360 67

25/05/2018 1:00 20.2 8.1 46 41 360 74

25/05/2018 1:16 19.8 8.2 47 43 360 91

25/05/2018 1:28 19.6 8.5 49 44 360 80

25/05/2018 1:41 18.9 9.3 54 41 360 67

25/05/2018 1:52 16.8 11 69 37 360 65

25/05/2018 2:04 16 11.8 76 39 360 80

25/05/2018 2:20 15.1 12.3 83 37 360 67

25/05/2018 2:30 15.2 12.5 84 39 360 61

25/05/2018 2:41 15.2 12.7 85 33 350 56

25/05/2018 3:00 14.8 12.2 84 22 350 43

25/05/2018 3:30 14.6 11.2 80 20 340 33

25/05/2018 4:00 14.6 10.8 78 17 340 31

25/05/2018 4:30 14.3 10.9 80 19 340 30

25/05/2018 5:00 14.7 11.2 80 20 340 39

25/05/2018 5:30 14.6 11.3 81 19 340 31

25/05/2018 6:00 14.4 11.2 81 17 340 26

25/05/2018 6:30 14.2 10.8 80 17 340 28

25/05/2018 7:00 13.9 11.1 83 17 340 33

25/05/2018 7:30 12.1 10 87 24 330 44

25/05/2018 8:00 11.9 9.7 86 17 350 28

25/05/2018 8:30 12.8 10 83 17 340 30

25/05/2018 9:00 12.8 8.8 77 20 350 37

25/05/2018 9:30 13.3 9.5 78 19 340 37

25/05/2018 10:00 13.3 9.5 78 20 350 37

25/05/2018 10:30 14.2 10.2 77 19 340 31

25/05/2018 11:00 14.2 9 71 20 330 39

25/05/2018 11:30 14.6 7.3 62 24 320 39

25/05/2018 12:00 16 8.9 63 26 320 41

25/05/2018 12:30 16.4 8.2 58 24 330 46


79

25/05/2018 13:00 17.3 7.9 54 28 330 50

25/05/2018 13:20 16.5 7.9 57 30 320 48

25/05/2018 13:30 16.6 8 57 30 320 54

25/05/2018 13:53 16.2 7.8 57 30 330 50

25/05/2018 14:30 13.2 9.6 79 20 300 31

25/05/2018 15:00 11.6 10.1 90 13 310 19

25/05/2018 15:30 12.8 10 83 24 330 35

25/05/2018 16:00 13 8.6 75 19 340 37

25/05/2018 16:30 13 8.6 75 22 340 37

25/05/2018 17:00 13.1 8.7 75 24 350 41

25/05/2018 17:30 13 8.5 74 24 340 41

25/05/2018 17:40 13 8.7 75 28 350 52

25/05/2018 18:00 13 8.9 76 24 340 43

25/05/2018 18:30 13.3 8.6 73 26 340 52

25/05/2018 18:40 13.2 8.6 74 28 340 46

25/05/2018 19:00 13.3 8.9 75 26 340 41

25/05/2018 19:11 13.3 9.1 76 28 340 52

25/05/2018 19:30 13.4 9.4 77 26 340 39

25/05/2018 20:00 13.8 9.4 75 24 340 41

25/05/2018 20:16 14 9.2 73 28 340 48

25/05/2018 20:30 13.9 9.1 73 30 340 52

25/05/2018 20:35 13.9 9.1 73 28 340 52

25/05/2018 20:48 14.1 9.1 72 30 340 52

25/05/2018 21:00 14.2 9 71 35 340 54

25/05/2018 21:30 13.9 9 72 30 330 48

25/05/2018 21:33 13.9 9.1 73 30 330 57

25/05/2018 21:45 14.1 9.3 73 31 330 54

25/05/2018 21:57 14.2 9.3 72 33 330 63

25/05/2018 22:09 14.1 9.4 73 31 330 50

25/05/2018 22:22 14.2 9.5 73 33 320 54

25/05/2018 22:33 13.8 9.8 77 33 320 56

25/05/2018 23:00 12.9 10.5 85 28 320 44

25/05/2018 23:30 12.8 10.7 87 28 320 44

25/05/2018 23:45 13 10.8 86 28 320 46

25/05/2018 23:57 13.1 10.7 85 28 320 50

26/05/2018 0:30 13.3 10.4 83 28 320 52

26/05/2018 0:34 13.3 10.4 83 30 320 52

26/05/2018 1:00 13.4 10.3 81 31 320 48

26/05/2018 1:30 13.6 10.5 82 28 310 44

26/05/2018 1:31 13.6 10.5 82 28 320 48

26/05/2018 2:00 13.8 10.5 80 28 320 44

26/05/2018 2:30 13.9 10.7 81 24 310 43

26/05/2018 3:00 14 10.7 80 22 300 43

26/05/2018 3:12 14 10.7 80 28 300 46

26/05/2018 3:30 13.5 10.8 84 22 300 37

26/05/2018 4:00 13.3 10.6 84 19 300 37

26/05/2018 4:30 13.7 10.6 82 20 300 39

26/05/2018 5:00 13.6 10.6 82 19 300 33

26/05/2018 5:30 13.4 10.4 82 20 290 37

26/05/2018 6:00 13.3 10.5 83 20 300 31

26/05/2018 6:30 12.9 10.3 84 20 300 33

26/05/2018 7:00 13 10.4 84 19 290 33

26/05/2018 7:30 13.1 10.4 84 19 290 30


80

26/05/2018 8:00 13.2 10.6 84 15 300 24

26/05/2018 8:30 14.2 11 81 17 300 33

26/05/2018 9:00 15.1 11.2 78 22 290 37

26/05/2018 9:30 15.5 11.1 75 24 290 35

26/05/2018 10:00 16.4 11 70 28 270 39

26/05/2018 10:30 15.6 10.9 74 22 290 35

26/05/2018 11:00 15.9 11.6 76 20 290 35

26/05/2018 11:30 17.1 12.1 72 24 270 33

26/05/2018 12:00 16.4 11.4 72 22 260 33

26/05/2018 12:30 16.5 12.3 76 19 280 28

26/05/2018 13:00 17.3 12.1 71 17 270 26

26/05/2018 13:30 17.5 11.4 67 30 260 44

26/05/2018 14:00 18.5 11.3 63 22 260 35

26/05/2018 14:30 17.5 11.4 67 20 220 30

26/05/2018 15:00 16.3 13 81 17 250 28

26/05/2018 15:30 16.3 12.7 79 17 260 24

26/05/2018 16:00 16.4 11.9 75 15 250 26

26/05/2018 16:30 16.2 11.5 74 13 260 20

26/05/2018 17:00 15.5 11.1 75 20 260 28

26/05/2018 17:30 15.2 11 76 19 270 26

26/05/2018 18:00 14.7 11 78 13 300 24

26/05/2018 18:30 14.3 11.3 82 19 280 28

26/05/2018 19:00 13.8 11.3 85 15 280 22

26/05/2018 19:30 13.6 10.7 83 17 270 26

26/05/2018 20:00 13.2 10.5 84 9 290 17

26/05/2018 20:30 12.8 10.1 84 7 300 17

26/05/2018 21:00 12.3 9.9 85 7 310 13

26/05/2018 21:30 12 10 88 7 340 15

26/05/2018 22:00 11.7 9.9 89 7 330 13

26/05/2018 22:30 11.8 9.9 88 7 320 15

26/05/2018 23:00 12.4 10.4 88 11 310 17

26/05/2018 23:30 12.4 10.5 88 11 320 20


81

Appendix 5: Fire Weather Forecasts IDW15000

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Western Australia

Fire Weather Forecast for Southwest Land Division WA

for Thursday 24 May 2018

Issued at 4:00 pm WST on Wednesday 23 May 2018.

FORECASTS ISSUED REGULARLY: PLEASE ENSURE YOU HAVE THE LATEST VERSION.

SUMMARY

District District District % FireWx

District FFDI GFDI Rating Cover Warn

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----

Coastal Central West 35 42 Very High 85

Inland Central West 47 57 Severe 35 Y



Lower West Coast 35 39 Very High 89

Lower West Inland 35 40 Very High 43

Geographe 29 47 Very High 65

Leeuwin 28 17 High 97

Nelson 30 39 Very High 23

Stirling Coast 41 47 Very High 85

Stirling Inland 43 51 Severe 19 Y

Ravensthorpe Shire C 38 35 Very High 61

Ravensthorpe Shire I 38 35 Very High 46

Esperance Shire Coas 31 26 High 100

Esperance Shire Inla 30 24 High 100

Upper Great Southern 40 44 Very High 77

Roe 42 43 Very High 89

Beaufort 38 47 Very High 93

Lakes 41 47 Very High 88

Mortlock 42 49 Very High 100

Ninghan 41 42 Very High 85

Avon 41 45 Very High 93

Jilbadgie 40 42 Very High 84

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----

* Ratings information are provided in conjunction with Fire Authorities.

* District FDI is the representative peak FDI in the district for that

fuel type. 10% of the district has a max FDI higher than this value.

* Percent Coverage is the percentage of the district that falls in or

above the District Rating threshold.


82

Thursday:

A strong cold front approaches from the west, moving through in the late

evening and into Friday. Warm and dry with fresh and gusty northerly winds

over the central and western parts ahead of the approaching cold front.

Elevated FDRs for the western majority tending severe for the inland

Central West districts. Shower and thunderstorms developing from the west

coast during the evening.

DISTRICT WEATHER ELEMENTS for Thursday 24 May 2018


PoP 1500m 3000m Mix

District TAL Haines 5mm Wind Wind Height

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----

Coastal Central West 1 6 75 NNW 75 NW 85 2500

Inland Central West 1 7 70 NNW 65 NW 80 2700



Lower West Coast 1 8 80 NNW 80 NNW 100 2200

Lower West Inland 1 8 75 NNW 75 NW 95 2300

Geographe 1 8 80 NNW 100 NNW 105 1500

Leeuwin 1 8 75 NNW 95 NNW 100 1600

Nelson 1 8 75 NNW 85 NNW 100 2100

Stirling Coast 1 8 10 NNW 80 NNW 70 1700

Stirling Inland 1 8 10 NNW 85 NNW 75 2100

Ravensthorpe Shire C 0 8 0 NNW 60 NNW 50 2000

Ravensthorpe Shire I 0 8 0 NNW 60 NNW 50 2200

Esperance Shire Coas 0 7 0 N 55 NNW 60 1800

Esperance Shire Inla 0 7 0 N 40 NNW 50 2000

Upper Great Southern 1 8 60 NNW 80 NNW 90 2300

Roe 1 9 < 5 NNW 75 NNW 70 2500

Beaufort 1 8 45 NNW 85 NNW 85 2100

Lakes 1 9 < 5 NNW 70 NNW 65 2200

Mortlock 1 9 35 NNW 65 NW 75 2600

Ninghan 0 10 < 5 NNW 80 NNW 85 2500

Avon 1 9 55 NNW 70 NNW 85 2500

Jilbadgie 1 10 < 5 N 85 NNW 95 2500


83

DETAILED DISTRICT FORECAST for Thursday 24 May 2018


Fuel Dist FFDI > 32 FFDI > 50 FFDI > 75 FFDI > 100

Type FDI GFDI > 32 GFDI > 50 GFDI > 75 GFDI > 100

% Strt Hrs % Strt Hrs % Strt Hrs % Strt Hrs

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Coastal Central We F 35 44 11 4 0 0 0

G 42 88 11 6 0 0 0

Inland Central Wes F 47 90 11 6 1 13 1 0 0

G 57 100 11 6 36 12 4 0 0


G 42 100 11 5 0 0 0

Inland Central Wes F 46 100 11 7 < 1 NA NA 0 0

G 55 100 11 6 29 12 4 0 0

Lower West Coast F 35 65 12 4 0 0 0

G 39 99 11 5 0 0 0

Lower West Inland F 35 38 12 4 0 0 0

G 40 57 11 5 0 0 0

Geographe F 29 0 0 0 0

G 47 100 11 9 2 15 1 0 0

Leeuwin F 28 0 0 0 0

G 17 0 0 0 0

Nelson F 30 2 13 1 0 0 0

G 39 39 11 6 0 0 0

Stirling Coast F 41 84 11 6 0 0 0

G 47 89 11 13 4 12 2 0 0

Stirling Inland F 43 92 11 7 0 0 0

G 51 95 10 14 20 12 3 0 0


84




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ravensthorpe Shire F 38 95 11 5 0 0 0

G 35 27 11 4 0 0 0


G 35 26 11 4 0 0 0

Esperance Shire Co F 31 3 13 2 0 0 0

G 26 < 1 NA NA 0 0 0

Esperance Shire In F 30 1 13 1 0 0 0

G 24 0 0 0 0

Upper Great Southe F 40 72 11 8 0 0 0

G 44 80 11 7 0 0 0

Roe F 42 91 11 8 0 0 0

G 43 79 11 13 0 0 0

Beaufort F 38 84 11 8 0 0 0

G 47 94 10 11 0 0 0

Lakes F 41 94 11 8 0 0 0

G 47 88 10 13 < 1 NA NA 0 0

Mortlock F 42 100 11 7 0 0 0

G 49 100 11 6 8 13 2 0 0

Ninghan F 41 91 11 7 0 0 0

G 42 85 11 13 < 1 NA NA 0 0

Avon F 41 92 11 8 0 0 0

G 45 94 11 6 0 0 0

Jilbadgie F 40 88 11 7 0 0 0

G 42 78 11 13 0 0 0


85

IDW15000


Western Australia


for Thursday 24 May 2018

Issued at 4:30 am WST on Thursday 24 May 2018.


SUMMARY



---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----





Lower West Coast 35 39 Very High 89

Lower West Inland 35 40 Very High 43


Leeuwin 28 17 High 97

Nelson 30 39 Very High 23


Stirling Inland 43 51 Severe 19 Y





Upper Great Southern 40 44 Very High 77


Beaufort 38 47 Very High 93


Mortlock 42 49 Very High 100


Avon 41 45 Very High 93


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----






Thursday:

A strong cold front approaches from the west, moving through in the late

evening and into Friday. Warm and dry with fresh and gusty northerly winds

over the central and western parts ahead of the approaching cold front.

Elevated FDRs for the western majority tending severe for the inland

Central West districts. Shower and thunderstorms developing from the west

coast during the evening.


86

DISTRICT WEATHER ELEMENTS for Thursday 24 May 2018


PoP 1500m 3000m Mix


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----





Lower West Coast 1 7 80 NNW 80 NNW 100 2200

Lower West Inland 1 8 75 NNW 75 NW 95 2300

Geographe 1 7 80 NNW 100 NNW 105 1500

Leeuwin 1 8 75 NNW 95 NNW 100 1700

Nelson 1 8 75 NNW 85 NNW 100 2100

Stirling Coast 1 8 10 NNW 80 NNW 70 1700

Stirling Inland 1 8 10 NNW 85 NNW 75 2100

Ravensthorpe Shire C 0 8 0 NNW 60 NNW 50 2000

Ravensthorpe Shire I 0 8 0 NNW 60 NNW 50 2300

Esperance Shire Coas 0 7 0 N 55 NNW 60 1800

Esperance Shire Inla 0 7 0 N 40 NNW 50 2000

Upper Great Southern 1 8 60 NNW 80 NNW 90 2300

Roe 1 9 < 5 NNW 75 NNW 70 2500

Beaufort 1 8 45 NNW 85 NNW 85 2100

Lakes 1 9 < 5 NNW 70 NNW 65 2200

Mortlock 1 9 35 NNW 65 NW 75 2700

Ninghan 0 10 < 5 NNW 80 NNW 85 2500

Avon 1 9 55 NNW 70 NNW 85 2500

Jilbadgie 1 10 < 5 N 85 NNW 95 2500


87

DETAILED DISTRICT FORECAST for Thursday 24 May 2018





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


G 42 88 11 6 0 0 0

Inland Central Wes F 47 90 11 6 1 13 1 0 0

G 57 100 11 6 36 12 4 0 0


G 42 100 11 5 0 0 0

Inland Central Wes F 46 100 11 7 < 1 NA NA 0 0

G 55 100 11 6 29 12 4 0 0

Lower West Coast F 35 65 12 4 0 0 0

G 39 99 11 5 0 0 0

Lower West Inland F 35 38 12 4 0 0 0

G 40 57 11 5 0 0 0


G 47 100 11 9 2 15 1 0 0

Leeuwin F 28 0 0 0 0

G 17 0 0 0 0

Nelson F 30 2 13 1 0 0 0

G 39 39 11 6 0 0 0


G 47 89 11 13 4 12 2 0 0


G 51 95 10 14 20 12 3 0 0


88




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


G 35 27 11 4 0 0 0


G 35 26 11 4 0 0 0


G 26 < 1 NA NA 0 0 0

Esperance Shire In F 30 1 13 1 0 0 0

G 24 0 0 0 0

Upper Great Southe F 40 72 11 8 0 0 0

G 44 80 11 7 0 0 0

Roe F 42 91 11 8 0 0 0

G 43 79 11 13 0 0 0

Beaufort F 38 84 11 8 0 0 0

G 47 94 10 11 0 0 0

Lakes F 41 94 11 8 0 0 0

G 47 88 10 13 < 1 NA NA 0 0

Mortlock F 42 100 11 7 0 0 0

G 49 100 11 6 8 13 2 0 0

Ninghan F 41 91 11 7 0 0 0

G 42 85 11 13 < 1 NA NA 0 0

Avon F 41 92 11 8 0 0 0

G 45 94 11 6 0 0 0

Jilbadgie F 40 88 11 7 0 0 0

G 42 78 11 13 0 0 0


89

IDW15000


Western Australia


for Friday 25 May 2018

Issued at 4:00 pm WST on Thursday 24 May 2018.


SUMMARY



---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----

Coastal Central West 12 21 High 98

Inland Central West 11 18 High 94



Lower West Coast 8 28 High 65

Lower West Inland 7 17 High 34


Leeuwin 6 9 Low-Moderate 100

Nelson 4 17 High 29


Stirling Inland 38 50 Very High 66



Esperance Shire Coas 32 43 Very High 64

Esperance Shire Inla 28 37 Very High 17

Upper Great Southern 10 21 High 75


Beaufort 15 28 High 93


Mortlock 13 21 High 100


Avon 12 20 High 91


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----



fuel

type. 10% of the district has a max FDI higher than this value.




90

Friday:

A strong cold front moves east across the SWLD with gusty showers and

thunderstorms throughout the area. Warm and dry with fresh to strong and

gusty northerly winds over eastern parts ahead of the approaching cold

front, northwesterly winds in its wake. Winds gradually easing during the

evening.

DISTRICT WEATHER ELEMENTS for Friday 25 May 2018


PoP 1500m 3000m Mix


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----

Coastal Central West 0 2 10 W 50 W 85 2200

Inland Central West 1 2 35 W 55 W 85 2200

Coastal Central West 1 3 35 W 60 WNW 70 2400

Inland Central West 1 3 50 WNW 60 WNW 75 2300

Lower West Coast 1 3 70 WNW 65 WNW 75 2100

Lower West Inland 1 3 70 WNW 70 WNW 80 2000

Geographe 1 3 75 WNW 85 WNW 90 1400

Leeuwin 1 3 80 WNW 95 WNW 105 1000

Nelson 1 3 80 WNW 90 WNW 100 1500

Stirling Coast 1 4 40 N 120 NNW 115 2000

Stirling Inland 1 3 50 N 120 NNW 120 2100

Ravensthorpe Shire C 1 8 20 N 120 NNW 100 2100

Ravensthorpe Shire I 1 8 20 N 120 NNW 105 2300

Esperance Shire Coas 1 7 10 NNW 110 NNW 105 2000

Esperance Shire Inla 1 7 < 5 NNW 105 NNW 100 2300

Upper Great Southern 1 3 75 WNW 80 WNW 90 1800

Roe 1 5 50 N 105 NNW 110 2400

Beaufort 1 3 70 WNW 95 WNW 105 1700

Lakes 1 5 50 N 110 NNW 115 2200

Mortlock 1 3 70 WNW 65 WNW 80 2200

Ninghan 1 6 45 NNW 100 NNW 105 2300

Avon 1 3 75 WNW 70 WNW 80 2100

Jilbadgie 1 5 50 N 105 NNW 110 2400


91

DETAILED DISTRICT FORECAST for Friday 25 May 2018





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Coastal Central We F 12 0 0 0 0

G 21 0 0 0 0

Inland Central Wes F 11 0 0 0 0

G 18 0 0 0 0


G 22 < 1 NA NA 0 0 0


G 19 0 0 0 0

Lower West Coast F 8 0 0 0 0

G 28 6 10 10 0 0 0

Lower West Inland F 7 0 0 0 0

G 17 0 0 0 0


G 33 16 10 14 0 0 0

Leeuwin F 6 0 0 0 0

G 9 0 0 0 0

Nelson F 4 0 0 0 0

G 17 0 0 0 0


G 44 62 00 16 1 00 1 0 0


G 50 72 00 16 12 00 2 0 0


92




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


G 43 94 00 14 < 1 NA NA 0 0


G 53 64 00 13 21 02 1 0 0


G 43 71 00 14 0 0 0

Esperance Shire In F 28 < 1 NA NA 0 0 0

G 37 29 02 13 0 0 0

Upper Great Southe F 10 0 0 0 0

G 21 0 0 0 0

Roe F 38 46 00 2 0 0 0

G 45 52 00 13 0 0 0

Beaufort F 15 0 0 0 0

G 28 3 00 1 0 0 0

Lakes F 39 60 00 3 0 0 0

G 50 78 00 16 12 00 2 0 0

Mortlock F 13 0 0 0 0

G 21 0 0 0 0

Ninghan F 37 52 00 3 0 0 0

G 44 84 00 4 < 1 NA NA 0 0

Avon F 12 0 0 0 0

G 20 0 0 0 0

Jilbadgie F 41 56 00 3 0 0 0

G 52 67 00 3 15 00 2 0 0


93

IDW15000


Western Australia


for Friday 25 May 2018

Issued at 4:30 am WST on Friday 25 May 2018.


SUMMARY



---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----






Lower West Inland 7 17 High 34



Nelson 4 17 High 29


Stirling Inland 38 50 Very High 66



Esperance Shire Coas 32 43 Very High 64

Esperance Shire Inla 28 37 Very High 17





Mortlock 13 21 High 100


Avon 12 20 High 91


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----







94

Friday:

A strong cold front moves east across the eastern parts of the SWLD. Warm

and dry with fresh to strong and gusty northerly winds over eastern parts

ahead of the approaching cold front, northwesterly winds in its wake.

DAMAGING winds near western coastal areas.

DISTRICT WEATHER ELEMENTS for Friday 25 May 2018


PoP 1500m 3000m Mix


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----

Coastal Central West 0 3 15 WNW 55 WNW 90 2300


Coastal Central West 1 3 40 WNW 65 WNW 75 2400


Lower West Coast 1 3 70 WNW 80 WNW 90 2100

Lower West Inland 1 3 70 WNW 75 WNW 90 1900

Geographe 1 3 75 WNW 85 WNW 95 1500

Leeuwin 1 3 80 NW 80 NW 90 1000

Nelson 1 3 80 NW 85 WNW 95 1500

Stirling Coast 1 3 50 N 115 NNW 115 2100

Stirling Inland 1 3 55 N 115 NNW 120 2200

Ravensthorpe Shire C 1 4 25 N 120 NNW 120 2300

Ravensthorpe Shire I 1 4 20 N 120 NNW 125 2500

Esperance Shire Coas 0 7 10 NNW 100 NNW 120 2200

Esperance Shire Inla 0 6 < 5 NNW 105 NNW 110 2300

Upper Great Southern 1 3 75 WNW 85 WNW 100 1800

Roe 1 4 50 N 105 NNW 115 2500

Beaufort 1 3 70 NW 85 NW 100 1800

Lakes 1 3 50 N 110 NNW 120 2400

Mortlock 1 3 70 WNW 70 WNW 85 2200

Ninghan 1 4 45 NNW 100 NNW 105 2300

Avon 1 3 75 WNW 75 WNW 90 2100

Jilbadgie 1 4 50 N 105 NNW 115 2400


95

DETAILED DISTRICT FORECAST for Friday 25 May 2018





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


G 21 0 0 0 0


G 18 0 0 0 0


G 22 < 1 NA NA 0 0 0


G 19 0 0 0 0


G 28 6 10 10 0 0 0


G 17 0 0 0 0


G 33 16 10 14 0 0 0

Leeuwin F 6 0 0 0 0

G 9 0 0 0 0

Nelson F 4 0 0 0 0

G 17 0 0 0 0


G 44 62 00 16 1 00 1 0 0


G 50 72 00 16 12 00 2 0 0


96




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


G 43 94 00 14 < 1 NA NA 0 0


G 53 64 00 13 21 02 1 0 0


G 43 71 00 14 0 0 0

Esperance Shire In F 28 < 1 NA NA 0 0 0

G 37 29 02 13 0 0 0


G 21 0 0 0 0

Roe F 38 46 00 2 0 0 0

G 45 52 00 13 0 0 0


G 28 3 00 1 0 0 0

Lakes F 39 60 00 3 0 0 0

G 50 78 00 16 12 00 2 0 0


G 21 0 0 0 0

Ninghan F 37 52 00 3 0 0 0

G 44 84 00 4 < 1 NA NA 0 0

Avon F 12 0 0 0 0

G 20 0 0 0 0

Jilbadgie F 41 56 00 3 0 0 0

G 52 67 00 3 15 00 2 0 0


97

IDW15000


Western Australia


for Saturday 26 May 2018

Issued at 4:00 pm WST on Friday 25 May 2018.


SUMMARY



---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----






Lower West Inland 1 10 Low-Moderate 100

Geographe 1 23 High 62


Nelson 1 10 Low-Moderate 100

Stirling Coast 11 20 High 56

Stirling Inland 8 16 High 70

Ravensthorpe Shire C 12 23 High 58

Ravensthorpe Shire I 9 17 High 46




Roe 5 12 High 12


Lakes 7 16 High 78

Mortlock 3 10 Low-Moderate 100

Ninghan 5 12 High 11

Avon 3 10 Low-Moderate 100

Jilbadgie 4 11 Low-Moderate 100

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----







98

Saturday:

A deep low moving eastwards south of the State. Fresh to strong westerly

winds and showers will ease during the day. Possible thunderstorms in the

south in the morning.

DISTRICT WEATHER ELEMENTS for Saturday 26 May 2018


PoP 1500m 3000m Mix


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----

Coastal Central West 0 1 < 5 SW 40 SW 65 2200

Inland Central West 0 1 < 5 WSW 45 SW 65 2200

Coastal Central West 0 2 10 WSW 50 SW 70 2000

Inland Central West 0 2 10 WSW 55 SW 65 1900

Lower West Coast 0 2 45 WSW 60 SW 65 1600

Lower West Inland 0 2 45 WSW 55 WSW 65 1500

Geographe 0 2 40 SW 65 SW 75 1400

Leeuwin 1 2 45 WSW 60 SW 65 1300

Nelson 1 2 30 WSW 55 SW 65 1400

Stirling Coast 1 3 20 WSW 80 WSW 80 1600

Stirling Inland 1 3 10 WSW 80 WSW 80 1700

Ravensthorpe Shire C 1 3 < 5 W 65 W 75 2100

Ravensthorpe Shire I 0 3 < 5 W 85 W 90 2000

Esperance Shire Coas 0 4 < 5 WNW 80 W 85 1900

Esperance Shire Inla 0 4 < 5 WNW 75 W 80 2000

Upper Great Southern 0 2 20 WSW 70 WSW 75 1600

Roe 0 2 10 WSW 75 WSW 85 1700

Beaufort 1 2 10 WSW 70 WSW 70 1500

Lakes 0 2 5 WSW 70 WSW 75 1800

Mortlock 0 2 10 WSW 60 SW 60 1700

Ninghan 0 2 < 5 W 65 WSW 70 1800

Avon 0 2 25 WSW 70 WSW 75 1500

Jilbadgie 0 2 15 WSW 75 WSW 85 1600


99

DETAILED DISTRICT FORECAST for Saturday 26 May 2018





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


G 20 0 0 0 0


G 17 0 0 0 0


G 21 0 0 0 0


G 15 0 0 0 0


G 21 < 1 NA NA 0 0 0


G 10 0 0 0 0


G 23 3 00 10 1 00 1 0 0

Leeuwin F 1 0 0 0 0

G 8 0 0 0 0

Nelson F 1 0 0 0 0

G 10 0 0 0 0

Stirling Coast F 11 0 0 0 0

G 20 1 00 1 0 0 0

Stirling Inland F 8 0 0 0 0

G 16 0 0 0 0


100




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ravensthorpe Shire F 12 0 0 0 0

G 23 0 0 0 0


G 17 0 0 0 0

Esperance Shire Co F 12 0 0 0 0

G 27 < 1 NA NA 0 0 0

Esperance Shire In F 13 0 0 0 0

G 29 2 10 2 0 0 0


G 12 0 0 0 0

Roe F 5 0 0 0 0

G 12 0 0 0 0


G 13 0 0 0 0

Lakes F 7 0 0 0 0

G 16 0 0 0 0


G 10 0 0 0 0

Ninghan F 5 0 0 0 0

G 12 0 0 0 0

Avon F 3 0 0 0 0

G 10 0 0 0 0

Jilbadgie F 4 0 0 0 0

G 11 0 0 0 0


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IDW15000


Western Australia


for Saturday 26 May 2018

Issued at 4:30 am WST on Saturday 26 May 2018.


SUMMARY



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Lower West Inland 1 10 Low-Moderate 100

Geographe 1 23 High 62


Nelson 1 10 Low-Moderate 100

Stirling Coast 11 20 High 56

Stirling Inland 8 16 High 70

Ravensthorpe Shire C 12 23 High 58

Ravensthorpe Shire I 9 17 High 46




Roe 5 12 High 12


Lakes 7 16 High 78

Mortlock 3 10 Low-Moderate 100

Ninghan 5 12 High 11

Avon 3 10 Low-Moderate 100

Jilbadgie 4 11 Low-Moderate 100

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Saturday:

A deep low south of the State will move east during Saturday. Fresh to

strong westerly winds and showers will ease during the day. Possible

thunderstorms in the south in the morning.

DISTRICT WEATHER ELEMENTS for Saturday 26 May 2018


PoP 1500m 3000m Mix


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Coastal Central West 0 1 < 5 SW 40 SW 65 2200

Inland Central West 0 1 < 5 WSW 45 SW 65 2200

Coastal Central West 0 2 10 WSW 50 SW 70 2000

Inland Central West 0 2 10 WSW 55 SW 65 1900

Lower West Coast 0 2 45 WSW 60 SW 65 1600

Lower West Inland 0 2 45 WSW 55 WSW 65 1600

Geographe 0 2 40 SW 65 SW 75 1400

Leeuwin 1 2 45 WSW 60 SW 65 1300

Nelson 1 2 30 WSW 55 SW 65 1400

Stirling Coast 1 3 20 WSW 80 WSW 80 1600

Stirling Inland 1 3 10 WSW 80 WSW 80 1700

Ravensthorpe Shire C 1 3 < 5 W 65 W 75 2100

Ravensthorpe Shire I 0 3 < 5 W 85 W 90 2000

Esperance Shire Coas 0 4 < 5 WNW 80 W 85 1900

Esperance Shire Inla 0 4 < 5 WNW 75 W 80 2000

Upper Great Southern 0 2 20 WSW 70 WSW 75 1600

Roe 0 2 10 WSW 75 WSW 85 1700

Beaufort 1 2 10 WSW 70 WSW 70 1500

Lakes 0 2 5 WSW 70 WSW 75 1800

Mortlock 0 2 10 WSW 60 SW 60 1700

Ninghan 0 2 < 5 W 65 WSW 70 1800

Avon 0 2 25 WSW 70 WSW 75 1500

Jilbadgie 0 2 15 WSW 75 WSW 85 1600


103

DETAILED DISTRICT FORECAST for Saturday 26 May 2018





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


G 20 0 0 0 0


G 17 0 0 0 0


G 21 0 0 0 0


G 15 0 0 0 0


G 21 < 1 NA NA 0 0 0


G 10 0 0 0 0


G 23 3 00 10 1 00 1 0 0

Leeuwin F 1 0 0 0 0

G 8 0 0 0 0

Nelson F 1 0 0 0 0

G 10 0 0 0 0

Stirling Coast F 11 0 0 0 0

G 20 1 00 1 0 0 0

Stirling Inland F 8 0 0 0 0

G 16 0 0 0 0


104




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


G 23 0 0 0 0


G 17 0 0 0 0

Esperance Shire Co F 12 0 0 0 0

G 27 < 1 NA NA 0 0 0

Esperance Shire In F 13 0 0 0 0

G 29 2 10 2 0 0 0


G 12 0 0 0 0

Roe F 5 0 0 0 0

G 12 0 0 0 0


G 13 0 0 0 0

Lakes F 7 0 0 0 0

G 16 0 0 0 0


G 10 0 0 0 0

Ninghan F 5 0 0 0 0

G 12 0 0 0 0

Avon F 3 0 0 0 0

G 10 0 0 0 0

Jilbadgie F 4 0 0 0 0

G 11 0 0 0 0


105

Appendix 6: Incident Weather Forecasts

Figure 39: Incident Weather Forecast for Stirling Range NP issued at 6:30am AWST 22 May 2018.


106



107



108


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Figure 42: Incident Weather Forecast for Stirling Range NP issued at 3:43pm AWST 24 May 2018.


110


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Figure 43: Incident Weather Forecast for Chester Moonah issued at 12:05pm AWST 24 May 2018.


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Figure 44: Incident Weather Forecast for Barrass Road Torndirrup National Park issued at 5:31am AWST 24 May 2018.


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Appendix 7: Emergency Services Weather Briefings IDW30200 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia Emergency Services Weather Briefing Issued at 10:29 am WST on Thursday 17 May 2018 for the period until midnight WST Thursday 17 May 2018. ROUTINE ISSUE Covering the period from Thursday 17th May to Wednesday 23rd May. MAIN POINTS A blocking high remains settled over the Bight, extending a ridge through much of the State. Very little rainfall is expected statewide during the next week. Dry, fresh and gusty winds will persist through the forecast period over northern areas of the State, bringing elevated Fire Danger Ratings. NORTHERN PARTS (INCLUDING THE KIMBERLEY, PILBARA AND NORTH INTERIOR) A strong ridge of high pressure remains in place over the region. Fresh and gusty bursts of east to southeasterly wind will develop each of the next few mornings, with winds generally easing somewhat from around midday. Winds may begin to ease from Tuesday or Wednesday as the ridge starts to weaken. Very High Fire Danger Ratings are expected in some areas where curing is high, but most locations will remain below Severe FDRs during the next few days. That being said, low humidity values and fresh east-southeasterly winds will still make for conditions which are conducive to the spread of existing bushfires. SOUTHERN PARTS (INCLUDING THE GASCOYNE, GOLDFIELDS, SOUTH INTERIOR, EUCLA AND THE SOUTH WEST LAND DIVISION) A strong high pressure system remains settled over the Bight, and as a result, little change in the weather pattern is expected through southern parts of the State this week. Light morning showers are possible near the Eucla coast through to Monday; otherwise, dry weather should prevail. Maximum temperatures will be above normal for this time of year across the Gascoyne and South West Land Division, and may warm further on Tuesday and Wednesday as the flow tends more north to northeasterly. Overnight temperatures will be chilly although not far from normal for late autumn. Elevated Fire Danger Ratings are possible over northern areas of the Gascoyne during the next few days as fresh and gusty easterly winds develop each morning. Please note: This advice is preliminary information and is provided for organisation planning purposes only. It may present a range of weather risk scenarios and should be accompanied by a briefing. It is not intended for public distribution.


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IDW30200 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia Emergency Services Weather Briefing Issued at 11:31 am WST on Monday 21 May 2018 for the period until midnight WST Monday 21 May 2018. ROUTINE ISSUE Covering the period from Monday 21st May to Friday 25th May. MAIN POINTS Benign weather conditions persist through to midweek across the State with a ridge of high pressure in place. Fresh and gusty winds ahead of a cold front will bring elevated Fire Danger conditions through the South West Land Division on Thursday, and most likely into the Goldfields and Eucla on Friday. The cold front is likely to cross the west coast on Thursday night, bringing moderate to possibly heavy rainfall that will extend from the South West Capes all the way northward into the west Gascoyne. There is the potential for damaging winds near the cold front along the west coast, extending inland during Friday. NORTHERN PARTS (INCLUDING THE KIMBERLEY, PILBARA AND NORTH INTERIOR) A ridge of high pressure remains the dominant feature over northern parts of the State. A bit of high cloud is streaming through the east Pilbara and North Interior and may bring isolated light showers on Tuesday and Wednesday, but most showers will just evaporate before reaching the surface. Gusty east to southeasterly winds are expected through to midweek, freshest during the morning hours. A cold front pushing through the Indian Ocean is expected to reach the west coast on Thursday night and will likely bring some rain, with possible moderate falls, over the west Pilbara. The front will weaken as it pushes eastward, though isolated showers may extend to a line from Newman to Roebourne on Friday. A south to southwesterly cool change will follow the front. SOUTHERN PARTS (INCLUDING THE GASCOYNE, GOLDFIELDS, SOUTH INTERIOR, EUCLA AND THE SOUTH WEST LAND DIVISION) The weather over southern and central WA remains dominated by high over the Bight, which extends a ridge throughout the State. A broad northeasterly flow will produce above-normal maximum temperatures throughout the South West Land Division. Temperatures will warm further on Wednesday and Thursday as the flow turns more northerly, and well above-normal temperatures will extend into the Gascoyne, Goldfields and South East Coastal District. Winds will increase on Thursday through the SWLD as a cold front approaches, resulting in elevated Fire Danger conditions, and there may be blowing dust across inland parts. High Fire Danger Ratings may extend into parts of the Goldfields, Eucla and South Interior on Friday.


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The cold front is expected to reach the west coast during Thursday night. Indications are that there will be a strong wind field around the front, although there is significant uncertainty as to whether the stronger winds above the surface can be transported down to the surface. Moderate to heavy rainfall is likely to extend all the way up through the Gascoyne coast, tending to showers behind the front. Thunderstorms will also be possible both in advance of the front and in the cold, unstable air mass behind the front. As the front pushes inland, rainfall amounts will tend to decrease through eastern parts of the SWLD as well as the Goldfields and South East Coastal District. That being said, the potential for strong winds is likely to extend through inland parts during Friday as the front advances eastward. The forecast will be further refined in the coming days. Should a Severe Weather Warning be warranted for this cold front, it would most likely be issued on Wednesday. Please note: This advice is preliminary information and is provided for organisation planning purposes only. It may present a range of weather risk scenarios and should be accompanied by a briefing. It is not intended for public distribution.


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IDW30210 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia Emergency Services Weather Briefing Issued at 11:54 am WST on Wednesday 23 May 2018 for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 23 May 2018. NON ROUTINE ISSUE Covering elevated fire danger ratings on Thursday 24th May and the passage of a strong cold front late on the 24th into Friday 25th May. WEATHER SITUATION A relatively strong cold front is moving through the Indian Ocean and will reach the west coast of the State during Thursday evening. A high currently over the Bight is directing an unseasonably warm air stream into the Gascoyne and South West Land Division. Winds will increase out of the north during the day Thursday, reaching 30 to 45 km/h with gusts to 60 km/h across much of the southern and western Gascoyne and SWLD. Due to it being nearly winter, air temperatures will not be sufficient to reach Severe or higher Fire Danger Ratings in many locations, although there will likely be Severe FDRs through parts of the southern Gascoyne, inland Central West and South Coastal District. That being said, the combination of very dry conditions in recent months, low relative humidity values and strong winds will result in a broad area of Very High FDRs and the potential for existing fires to spread. Highest Fire Danger Indices are likely during the afternoon as winds increase ahead of the front and air temperatures top out. The front is expected to reach the South West Capes during the early evening, extending through the most of the remainder of the west coast by midnight and reaching the North West Cape before sunrise on Friday. A period of heavy rain is expected along and just ahead of the front. Additionally, destructive wind gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour are possible, mainly in exposed near-coastal areas from Geraldton to Albany. These destructive gusts are most likely to occur at the onset of the rain and thunderstorm activity associated with the cold front. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 90 kilometres per hour are possible with the passage of the front through the western Gascoyne and inland South West Land Division. People in the southwest of WA typically experience a front as windy as this about five times a year. Total rainfall is expected to reach 15-50mm in western parts of the State, grading to 5-10mm from the central Gascoyne through the Goldfields. Isolated falls in excess of 70mm are possible in the Lower West and South West Districts. Strong to gale force northerly winds ahead of the front will cause higher than normal tides in Geographe Bay during Thursday. Tides will also be higher than normal along the coast from Shark Bay to Windy Harbour, with rough seas and potential flooding of some low-lying areas. Squally showers and thunderstorms will persist over central and southern areas of the SWLD during Friday, particularly before midday, in a fresh to strong westerly flow behind the front.


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Please note: This advice is preliminary information and is provided for organisation planning purposes only. It may present a range of weather risk scenarios and should be accompanied by a briefing. It is not intended for public distribution.


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IDW30200 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia Emergency Services Weather Briefing Issued at 11:15 am WST on Thursday 24 May 2018 for the period until midnight WST Thursday 24 May 2018. ROUTINE ISSUE Covering the period from Thursday 24th May to Wednesday 30th May. MAIN POINTS Windy and unseasonably warm with low humidity today throughout the South West Land Division, resulting in Very High to Severe Fire Danger Ratings across much of the region. Cold front will cross the west coast this evening, with a Severe Weather Warning issued for destructive winds and abnormally high tides southwest of a line from Shark Bay to Bremer Bay. Squally showers and possible thunderstorms continuing on Friday and Friday night through central and southern parts of the SWLD with damaging winds possible, especially in exposed coastal locations. No significant weather is expected from midday Saturday through to the middle of next week. NORTHERN PARTS (INCLUDING THE KIMBERLEY, PILBARA AND NORTH INTERIOR) The high pressure ridge that has been over northern WA is weakening, bringing a reduction in the east to southeasterly flow through the region. A cold front pushing eastward will reach the west Pilbara tonight, producing a period of moderate rainfall that will ease to showers on Friday. Overall, rainfall west of a line from Paraburdoo to Mardie will average 10 to 30mm, which will be welcome after a very dry summer. A few showers will push eastward later Friday into Saturday, with generally light falls from the central Pilbara coast through to areas southwest of Telfer. A new ridge of high pressure will develop from Sunday, bringing a fresher east to southeasterly flow through the Pilbara early next week, extending into much of the Kimberley by Tuesday. SOUTHERN PARTS (INCLUDING THE GASCOYNE, GOLDFIELDS, SOUTH INTERIOR, EUCLA AND THE SOUTH WEST LAND DIVISION) A relatively strong cold front is moving through the Indian Ocean and will reach the west coast of the State during this evening. A high currently over the Bight is directing an unseasonably warm air stream into the Gascoyne and South West Land Division. Winds will increase out of the north from late morning, reaching 30 to 45 km/h with gusts to 60 km/h across much of the southern and western Gascoyne and SWLD. Due to it being nearly winter, air temperatures will not be sufficient to reach Severe or higher Fire Danger Ratings in many locations, although there will likely be Severe FDRs through parts of the southern Gascoyne, inland Central West and South Coastal District. That being said, the


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combination of very dry conditions in recent months, low relative humidity values and strong winds will result in a broad area of Very High FDRs and the potential for existing fires to spread. Highest Fire Danger Indices are likely during the afternoon as winds increase ahead of the front and air temperatures top out. The cold front is expected to reach the South West Capes around sunset and pass over the remainder of the west coast by late evening. There will be a strong wind field around the front, which has necessitated a Severe Weather Warning for destructive winds, most likely in exposed west coastal locations from Jurien Bay to Walpole. A Severe Weather Warning is in effect for damaging winds and abnormally high tides for the remainder of the area southwest of a line from Denham to Merredin to Bremer Bay. In addition to the potential for damaging winds, a period of heavy rain will accompany the front, bringing 3-hourly rainfall totals of 20 to 40mm in many areas near the west coast south of Denham. Rainfall will grade to 5 to 15mm extending further inland through the SWLD and southern Gascoyne. Geographe Bay will be vulnerable to high tides and areas of low-lying flooding during today and tonight due to the persistent strong northerly flow, then on Friday morning as winds tend more westerly, the potential for high tides and coastal flooding extends between Jurien Bay and Walpole. A few showers will extend through the Goldfields and South East Coastal District during Friday, with warm and dry north-northwesterly winds preceding the front. Behind the front, a deep low will pass south of the lower west coast during Friday and Friday night, and will likely require a Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds over the southern and western part of the SWLD. Exposed coastal locations will be at greatest risk, but with squally showers and possible thunderstorms passing through the region, the threat of damaging winds will likely extend through some inland parts of the South West, Great Southern and South Coastal districts. The low will begin to weak and contract away to the east during Saturday, with winds and showers expected to ease about the south and west part of the State during the day. A few showers may develop over the inland SWLD due to cool air over the region, and isolated showers are possible along the weakening front over the Eucla and South Interior. A weak front will push northward on Sunday, producing occasional showers through the South West, South Coastal, Great Southern and Lower West districts, tending to lighter and more isolated showers through the Central West, Central Wheat Belt and South East Coastal District. A ridge of high pressure will build eastward in the wake of this front, causing scattered showers to contract to the south coast during Monday. Fine weather is likely through most of southern and central WA on Tuesday and Wednesday, with winds in the Gascoyne and SWLD tending a warmer north to northeasterly by midweek. Please note: This advice is preliminary information and is provided for organisation planning purposes only. It may present a range of weather risk scenarios and should be accompanied by a briefing. It is not intended for public distribution.


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IDW30210 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia Emergency Services Weather Briefing Issued at 1:48 pm WST on Saturday 26 May 2018 for the period until midnight WST Saturday 26 May 2018. NON ROUTINE ISSUE Covering weather conditions in the Albany area during Sunday 27 May and Monday 28 May. WEATHER SITUATION A cold front will pass through the Albany area during Sunday morning. Winds: WSW winds will become WNW-NW across the area during Saturday evening with wind speeds around 20-30 km/h. These WNW-NW winds will increase to 25-40 km/h during Sunday morning ahead of a WSW change associated with a cold front that will move through Albany during the morning, reaching Mt Barker and the Stirling Ranges around midday. Wind speeds on the change will be 30-50 km/h near the south coast, 25-30 km/h further inland. Severe gusts are not expected with the front though gusts could reach around 80km/h as the front moves through. After the initial change, wind direction will lie between WNW and SW for the remainder of Sunday and during Monday with winds easing. Rainfall: A few showers will pass through the area during the remainder of Saturday, with an increase in both intensity and frequency as the cold front moves through during Sunday. There is a small chance of lightning with the front. Total rainfall across the period from Saturday midnight to Sunday midnight is expected to be around 8-20mm at Albany, 3-10mm at Mt Barker and slightly less through the Stirling Range NP. Less than 5mm of rain is expected from showers on Monday. Please note: This advice is preliminary information and is provided for organisation planning purposes only. It may present a range of weather risk scenarios and should be accompanied by a briefing. It is not intended for public distribution.


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Appendix 8: DBCA Recorded Weather Briefing Summary Notes

DBCA Briefing Summary – May 19th 2018

SYNOPTIC SITUATION A high pressure system to the south of WA will remain stationary through to the middle of next week. This will continue to direct E'ly winds over much of the State. Conditions near the west coast will continue to remain warmer than average for this time of year, with no rainfall expected for the SWLD. NORTHERN WEATHER Very dry, clear conditions persisting for the next four days. East to southeasterly winds will surge and become gusty each morning throughout the northern half of the State. Winds will graduall begin to ease through the middle of next week as the high begins to retreat. SOUTHERN WEATHER Sun - Wednesday: Light to moderate E/NE'ly winds and clear skies persisting across the SWLD, winds fresher in the Gascoyne and Central West. Afternoon seabreezes along the west coast and southwest coast. Low to Moderate conditions for smoke accumulation around Perth, High in the southern SWLD, decreasing to Moderate from Tuesday morning. Outlook: A significant cold front may bring rain to the SWLD later Thursday or Friday next week, which would break the very stable pattern of the strong high pressure system dominating conditions. Fresh, gusty and dry northerly winds would be expected ahead of this front, at this stage most likely during Thursday – though there is significant uncertainty at this time range, models have not yet come into agreement over timing and rainfall amounts.


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SYNOPTIC SITUATION A high pressure system in the Bight will remain slow moving till Wednesday before moving east into southeast Australia. This will continue to direct E'ly winds over much of the northern parts of the State, tending NE'ly over the SWLD. Conditions near the west coast will continue to remain warmer than average for this time of year. A cold front approaches the west coast on Thursday, moving over the SWLD later Thursday and Friday. NORTHERN WEATHER Very dry, clear conditions persisting for the next four days. E'ly to SE'ly winds will surge and become gusty each morning, gradually easing from Tuesday as the high begins to retreat. Afternoon sea breezes along coastal parts from Tuesday. SOUTHERN WEATHER Monday – Wednesday: Light to moderate E/NE'ly winds and clear skies persisting across the SWLD, winds fresher in the Gascoyne and Central West. Warmer (up to 6 degrees above average) as winds tend N'ly and increase slightly on Wednesday. Afternoon sea breezes along the west coast and southwest coast. Low to Moderate conditions for smoke accumulation around Perth, High in the southern SWLD, decreasing to Moderate from Tuesday morning. Thursday: Cloud developing with moderate to fresh and gusty N'ly winds over the SWLD and Gascoyne, tending NW'ly during the afternoon over the western parts. Over the Goldfields, Eucla and South Interior mostly sunny with moderate N'ly to NE'ly winds. Warm throughout. Showers developing along the west coast and adjacent inland areas during the afternoon, extending inland to the west Gascoyne and central SWLD during the evening. Isolated thunderstorms possible during the evening along the west coast. Possible heavy falls in the western SWLD. Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms extend eastwards over the southern parts on Friday as the cold front moves east. A second cold front is expected to move over the SWLD later Friday and Saturday and a third one may approach the SWLD on Sunday or Monday. The stable pattern has now been broken.


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SYNOPTIC SITUATION A high pressure system in the Bight will remain slow moving till Wednesday before moving east into southeast Australia. This will continue to direct E'ly winds over much of the northern parts of the State, tending NE'ly over the SWLD. Conditions near the west coast will continue to remain warmer than average for this time of year. A cold front approaches the west coast on Thursday, moving over western and southern parts of the State from late Thursday and during Friday. NORTHERN WEATHER Tuesday – Thursday: Very dry, clear conditions persisting until late Thursday evening. NE'ly to SE'ly winds will become gusty each morning, gradually easing as the week progresses. Afternoon sea breezes along coastal parts and in the western Pilbara. Friday: A cold front will affect western parts of the Pilbara during Friday with moderate falls possible for areas west of Paraburdoo as the front moves through. Moderate to fresh and gusty NW'ly winds expected ahead of the front through the central Pilbara with fresh NE'ly winds in the North Interior. SOUTHERN WEATHER Tuesday – Wednesday: Light to moderate E/NE'ly winds and clear skies persisting across the SWLD, winds fresher in the Gascoyne and Central West. Warmer (up to 6 degrees above average) as winds tend N'ly and increase slightly on Wednesday. Weak afternoon sea breezes along the west coast and southwest coast. Low to Moderate conditions for smoke accumulation around Perth, Moderate to high in the southern SWLD, decreasing to Moderate from Wednesday morning. Thursday: Cloud developing with moderate to fresh and gusty N'ly winds over the SWLD and Gascoyne, tending NW'ly during the afternoon over the western parts. Over the Goldfields, Eucla and South Interior mostly sunny with moderate to fresh N'ly to NE'ly winds. Warm throughout. Showers developing along the west coast and adjacent inland areas from mid to late afternoon, extending inland to the west Gascoyne and west SWLD late evening. Isolated squally thunderstorms possible during the evening along the west coast. Possible heavy falls near the west coast late evening. Friday: The strong cold front will sweep through the SWLD, Gascoyne, and Goldfields, reaching the South Interior and Eucla by evening. Rain, showers and squally thunderstorms associated with the front will ease as the front moves inland with thunderstorms contracting to the south coast by evening. Widespread falls of 10-40mm for the western Gascoyne and central and western SWLD with isolated falls up to 90mm possible for the Lower West and Southwest districts. Fresh to strong and gusty N to NW'ly winds ahead of the front will shift fresh and gusty W'ly once the front moves through.


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SYNOPTIC SITUATION A high pressure system in the Bight will remain slow moving until Wednesday before moving east into southeast Australia. This will continue to direct E'ly winds over much of the northern parts of the State, tending NE'ly over the SWLD. Conditions near the west coast will continue to remain warmer than average for this time of year. A cold front approaches the west coast on Thursday, moving over western and southern parts of the State from late Thursday and during Friday. A ridge of high pressure will develop over central parts of the State during Saturday. NORTHERN WEATHER Wednesday – Thursday: Very dry, clear conditions persisting until late Thursday evening. NE'ly to SE'ly winds will become gusty each morning, gradually easing as the week progresses. Afternoon sea breezes along coastal parts and in the western Pilbara. Friday: A cold front will affect western parts of the Pilbara during Friday with moderate falls possible for areas west of Paraburdoo as the front moves through. Moderate to fresh and gusty NW'ly winds expected ahead of the front through the central Pilbara with fresh NE'ly winds in the North Interior. Saturday: Fresh southeasterly winds in the Pilbara as a new ridge of high pressure builds over central parts of the State. Light winds in the Kimberley and North Interior. SOUTHERN WEATHER Wednesday: Light to moderate E/NE'ly winds and clear skies persisting across the SWLD, winds fresher in the Gascoyne and Central West. Warmer (up to 6 degrees above average) as winds tend N'ly and increase slightly on Wednesday. Winds along the western and southwestern coasts tending fairly light and variable in the afternoon. Low to Moderate conditions for smoke accumulation around Perth, Moderate in the southern SWLD. Thursday: Cloud developing with moderate to fresh and gusty N'ly winds over the SWLD and Gascoyne, tending NW'ly during the afternoon over the western parts. Over the Goldfields, Eucla and South Interior mostly sunny with moderate to fresh N'ly to NE'ly winds. Warm throughout. Showers developing along the west coast and adjacent inland areas from early evening, extending inland to the west Gascoyne and west SWLD late evening. Isolated squally thunderstorms possible during the evening along the west coast. Possible heavy falls near the west coast late evening. Friday: The strong cold front will sweep through the SWLD, Gascoyne, and Goldfields, reaching the South Interior and Eucla by evening. Rain, showers and squally thunderstorms associated with the front will ease as the front moves inland with thunderstorms contracting to the south coast by evening. Widespread falls of 10-40mm for the western Gascoyne and central and western SWLD with isolated falls up to 60mm possible for the Lower West and Southwest districts. Fresh to strong and gusty N to NW'ly winds ahead of the front will shift fresh and gusty W'ly once the front moves through. Saturday: A broadly westerly flow with stream showers for much of the SWLD in the morning, easing for inland parts later in the afternoon.

24 The date was mis-labelled on this summary. It should have been May 22nd 2018.


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DBCA Briefing Summary – May 23rd 2018

SYNOPTIC SITUATION A high pressure system remains in the Bight until a cold front approaches the west coast late Thursday. Elevated fire danger conditions ahead of the front through western parts of the State. NORTHERN WEATHER Mostly dry, clear conditions with SE'ly winds becoming gusty each morning, gradually easing as the week progresses. Afternoon sea breezes along coastal parts. A cold front will affect western parts of the Pilbara during Friday with thunderstorm activity and moderate falls possible for areas west of Paraburdoo as the front moves through. Moderate to fresh and gusty N'ly winds expected ahead of the front through the central/west Pilbara. Fresh SE'ly winds near the Pilbara coast redevelop as a new ridge of high pressure builds over the weekend. SOUTHERN WEATHER Thursday: Warm throughout. Elevated fire danger conditions over the western SWLD. Fresh and gusty N'ly winds over the SWLD and Gascoyne. Moderate over remaining parts. Very gusty showers and thunderstorms developing along the west coast from early evening, extending inland late evening. Significant rainfall possible. 20-30mm, isolated 60mm. Friday: Cold change sweeping through the SWLD, Gascoyne and Goldfields, reaching the South Interior and Eucla by evening. Fresh to strong and gusty N to NW'ly winds ahead of the front will shift fresh and gusty W'ly once the front moves through. The front eases as it moves inland with thunderstorms contracting to the south coast by evening. 10-20mm, isolated 40mm coastal. Sat/Sunday: A broadly westerly flow with stream showers for much of the SWLD and a series of weak frontal bands.


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SYNOPTIC SITUATION A strong cold front will cross the west coast early this evening, extending across the southern half of the State overnight tonight and during Friday. The associated low pressure system will move south of the south State during Friday and Saturday. A high pressure ridge will extend across central parts of the State over the weekend, as a second cold front crosses the south west corner on Sunday. The ridge will shift southward to lie over the South West Land Division on Monday. NORTHERN WEATHER Mostly dry, clear conditions. Gusty morning easterlies easing by Saturday through the Kimberley. A cold front will affect western parts of the Pilbara during Friday with thunderstorm activity and moderate falls possible for areas west of Paraburdoo as the front moves through. Moderate to fresh and gusty N to NW'ly winds expected ahead of the front through the central/west Pilbara, followed by gusty south to southeasterly winds during the morning periods from Sunday throughout the Pilbara as a new ridge develops in the wake of the front. SOUTHERN WEATHER Friday: Cool, wet and windy conditions across the SWLD, extending to the southeast during the day. Fresh to strong and gusty N to NW'ly winds ahead of the front will shift fresh and gusty W'ly once the front moves through. The front eases as it moves inland with thunderstorms contracting to the south coast by evening. Rainfall 10 to 20mm, isolated 40mm coastal and hills. Saturday: A cool W to SW'ly flow continues with stream showers for much of the SWLD. Rainfall < 5mm. Sunday: A second, weaker cold front crosses the SWLD. Rainfall 5 to 15mm, isolated 25mm coastal and hills. Monday: Cool conditions with generally light W to SW'ly winds. Mainly coastal showers.


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Appendix 8: Diagrams of Mountain Waves and Rotors

Figure 45: This image shows the development of the typical features often associated with a mountain wave system.

Figure 46: Image identifying features associated with mountain waves, including rotors.


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References Agreement between the Commonwealth of Australia represented by the Bureau of Meteorology and the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (Western Australia) (DFES). Agreement for the provision of: • Fire and significant weather briefing services in the DFES State Operations Centre, and • Evaluation of weather-related operational procedures and training for DFES. Bureau of Meteorology, 2018, Fire Weather Directive 2017/2018, Western Australia Regional Office. Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Hazard Note issue 24 December 2016. Cheney, P. & Sullivan, A. 1997, Grassfires – fuel, weather and fire behaviour. CSIRO Publishing, 110 pp. Finkele, K, Mills, G, Beard, G, Jones, D (2006) 'National daily gridded soil moisture deficit and drought factors for use in prediction of Forest Fire Danger Index in Australia', BMRC Research Report No. 119. Meteorological Aspects of the Waroona Fire January 2016. Bureau of Meteorology, Western Australian Regional Office. Mountain Waves and Downslope Winds. The COMET Program. Noble, I. R, Bary, G. A. V. and Gill, A. M. (1980) McArthur’s fire-danger meters expressed as equations. Australian Journal of Ecology, 5, 201-203pp. Purton, M. (1982) Equations for the McArthur Grassland Meter Mk IV. Bureau of Meteorology Meteorological Note No. 147, 12 pp. THE METEOROLOGY ACT 1955 No. 6 of 1955. An Act relating to the Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology, Comlawld – C2008C00066.

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Report into the Meteorological Aspects of the Fires in the Stirling … · 2018. 12. 19. · 2.3 Drought Indices and Fuel ... Appendix 8: DBCA Recorded Weather Briefing Summary Notes