RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIALS Projections to 2050 BASED ON THE PRESENTATION of Mohamed El-Ashry...
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RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIALS Projections to 2050 BASED ON THE PRESENTATION of Mohamed El-Ashry Chairman REN 21 3rd Ministerial Meeting in Gleneagles Dialogue, Berlin, September 10, 2007
RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIALS Projections to 2050 BASED ON THE PRESENTATION of Mohamed El-Ashry Chairman REN 21 3rd Ministerial Meeting in Gleneagles Dialogue,
RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIALS Projections to 2050 BASED ON THE
PRESENTATION of Mohamed El-Ashry Chairman REN 21 3rd Ministerial
Meeting in Gleneagles Dialogue, Berlin, September 10, 2007
Slide 2
main questions concerning medium/long term trends RENEWABLE
ENERGY A) What opportunities do renewable energy technologies
(RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term? B) Can
RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in
the medium-and long-term? C) What will be the driving force of a
clean technology revolution based on RET?
Slide 3
A) OPPORTUNITIES Very high potential overall no resource
constraint. Markets RET could satisfy global electricity and heat
demand. Technical potential of bioenergy is not sufficient to
displace fossil fuels entirely in the transport sector. Share of
RET is dependent on demands (peak / background or continuous
supply) What opportunities do renewable energy technologies (RETs)
offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term?
Slide 4
A) OPPORTUNITIES (CONTD.) Regions Sufficient renewable energy
resource potential in every region is naturally present. Some
regions are rich in specific resource: HYDROPOWER in Asia BIOMASS
crops in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union ONSHORE WIND in
North America SOLAR(CSP&PV) in Africa and the Middle East
GEOTHERMAL in Asia and Latin America OCEAN POWER in Asia, North
America, and Oceania What opportunities do renewable energy
technologies (RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and
long-term?
Slide 5
HYDRO Hoover Dam (USA, Nevada) 2080 MW = ~2GW (1931-36) 4.2 GWh
/ year Three Gorges Dam (China, ) 22500 MW (1994-2008!) 80 -100 000
GWh/year (~100TWh)
Slide 6
HYDRO Three Gorges Dam (China) 22500 mW (1994-2008!) 80 -100
000 GWh/year (~100TWh) ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT (+/-): NEG Changing
landscape POS According to the National Development and Reform
Commission of China, 366 grams of coal would produce 1 kWh of
electricity during 2006. At full power, Three Gorges Dam: - Reduces
coal consumption by 31 Mt/y Avoiding: - 100 Mt greenhouse gas
emissions, - millions of tonnes of dust, - 1 Mt of sulfur
dioxide,sulfur dioxide - 370,000 tonnes of nitric oxide,nitric
oxide - 10,000 tonnes of carbon monoxide,carbon monoxide - and a
significant amount of mercury.mercury Hydropower saves the energy
needed to mine, wash, and transport the coal from northern
China.
Slide 7
Solucar PS10 is the first solar thermal power plant based on
tower in the world that generate electric) CSP concentratig solar
power S20 and PS10 in Andalusia, Spain SOLAR
Slide 8
PS20 and PS10 in Andalusia, SpainSOLAR
Slide 9
Svartsengi Power Station 150mW geothermal capacity 76mW
installed (start 1976) Nesjavellir Power Station 300mW geothermal
capacity 120mW installed (start 1990) ICELAND On >1150mW thermal
capacity, ~580mW installed up to 2010 150mW / 76mW: 1976 150mW /
60mW: 1977 300mW / 120mW: 1990 150mW / 100mW: 2006 400mW / 213mW:
2010 Geothermal power plant in Reykjavik, Iceland GEOTHERMAL
Slide 10
WIND POWER Wind power installed in Europe by end of 2010
Slide 11
WIND According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA)
report of February 2011, -there are over 12,000 wind turbines in
Europe -with a total capacity of 84 GW. -The European Union
accounts for over 98% of that total. -In 2010, 12.7 billion was
invested in EU wind farms and - 9.3 GW of new power capacity was
installed. -9.1% of the total energy capacity of the EU now comes
from wind, up from just 2.2% in 2000. -In a normal wind year, 5.3%
of the EU's electricity is produced from wind power. -As of January
2011, offshore wind farms account for approximately 3.5% of
capacity. -There are 1,136 offshore turbines installed, totalling
2.9GW in 45 wind farms in 9 countries. WIND POWER
Slide 12
WIND According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA)
report of February 2011, WIND POWER The EWEA estimates that 230GW
of wind capacity will be installed in Europe by 2020, (190GW
onshore + 40GW offshore. This would produce 14-17% of the EU's
electricity, avoiding 333 million tonnes of CO2 per year and saving
Europe 28 billion a year in avoided fuel costs.
Slide 13
WIND Wind power today, in an average wind year, generates the
equivalent of - over 20% of Denmarks electricity use -2530% of that
in three German Lnder, -and on windy days with light loads, over
100% of the load in certain regions, particularly in West Denmark,
North Germany, and northern Spain. WIND POWER EXAMPLE of DANISH
WIND POWER PLANTS see in separate slides!
Slide 14
B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050 Electricity Can RETs
realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the
medium-and long-term?
Slide 15
B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050 (CONTD.) Heating and
Cooling Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon
solution in the medium-and long-term?
Slide 16
Transport Fuels B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050
(CONTD.) Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon
solution in the medium-and long-term?
Slide 17
$70.9bn $49.6bn $27.5bn 200420052006 GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN
ENERGY 2004 - 2006 80% Growth 43% Growth Grossed-up estimate based
on disclosed deals. New investment only. Source: New Energy Finance
What will be the driving force of a clean technology revolution
based on RET?
Slide 18
C) DRIVERS FOR A RET REVOLUTION Costs ( of production &
installing & maintain ) Capital ( investments , since
produciton good deal ) Climate safe technology ( Mte CO2, against
non- renewables ) What will be the driving force of a clean
technology revolution based on RET?