Renewable energy policy and Ontario wind turbinedevelopment

Margaret S. Loudermilk

Ivey Business SchoolWestern University

Ontario Network for Sustainable Energy PolicyApril 20-22, 2016

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Motivation

“social license” has become a central issue in the development of energyinfrastructure projects

policy makers and project proponents want to understand the factorscontributing to resistance to the development of energy infrastructure

interest in social license often focuses on pipelines, but the problem of sociallicense extends to all forms of energy

focusing on renewable energy projects decouples concerns related to theproduct from the specific project (e.g., hydrocarbons/Keystone XL)

rapid development of wind turbine projects in Ontario over the past decadeaccompanied by policy changes and a perceived increase in local resistance tothe construction of wind turbines provides an opportunity for both qualitativeand quantitative analysis.

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Background: Renewable Electricity Policy in Ontario

2003 ON government publicly announced renewable power targets forOntario (targets were not legislated)

2004 1st round of RFPs for renewable energy capacity issued under theRenewable Energy Supply (RES) program

additional rounds in 2005 and 2007yielded average rates of $0.08-0.09/kWh

2006 Renewable Energy Standard Offer Program (RESOP) launchedpaid $0.11/kWhsize limit of 10 MW per projectlimited time to bring contracted project into operation

2009 Green Energy Act (GEA) simplified the approval process forrenewable energy projects and new Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) program wasdeveloped to incentivize renewable energy projects

base prices for wind of $0.115-0.135/kWh

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Wind Generation in Ontario - IESO

According to the IESO, in 2015 wind output reached 6% of total generationproduction, producing 9 Terawatt-hours (TWh), and comprised 10% of installedenergy capacity with 96 commercially operating, contracted projects and acumulative capacity of 4,377 MW.

Source: IESO, A Progress Report on Contracted Electricity Supply: Fourth Quarter 2015.

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Wind Generation in Ontario - CANWEA

According to the Canadian Wind Energy Association, in 2015 wind generationcomprised 79 installed projects and a cumulative capacity of 4,361 MW.

Source: Data as of December 31, 2015 from Canadian Wind Energy Association.

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Wind Generation in Ontario - Number of Projects?

IESO 96 commercially operating, contracted projects and 4,377 MW

CANWEA 79 installed projects and 4,361 MW

FIT 84 FIT contract offers

REA 69 Renewable Energy Approval applications submitted (2 refused, 5withdrawn, 1 under review, 61 approved)

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Approach

1 Construct a database of Ontario wind turbine project development andmeasures of social resistance

2 Perform qualitative analyses through case studies and geographicinformation system (GIS) techniques

3 Merge project database with socio-demographic data and projectimpact data

4 Perform statistical analysis of factors affecting the project developmentprocess and determinants of social resistance

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Previous Related Work

Stokes (forthcoming, Amer. J. Pol. Sci,) - Constructed a database of ON FITcontracted wind projects to determine the effect of local resistance on electionof incumbents. 2,753 proposed or operational turbines and 65 wind projectsidentified.

Christidis and Law (2013, ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf) - Compile data on preexistingwind farms and create a GIS map for use in environmental health research.The paper includes discussion of inconsistencies across publicly availableOntario wind farm data. 1,420 wind turbines from 56 different wind farmsidentified.

Many papers written on social resistance to wind power, primarily in otherjurisdictions and using case study methods that focus on a single or smallgroup of projects (Breukers and Wolsink, 2007; Eltham et al.,2008; Gross,2007; Jobert et al., 2007; Jones and Eiser, 2010; Swofford and Slattery, 2010;Songsore and Buzzelli, 2014; etc.)

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Data Collection

Goal: capture project development and “social resistance data for everyproposed, operating, or withdrawn/cancelled wind power project in ON

Variables: Site name, location, ownership, project status, generation contractregulatory proposals/approvals/durations/appeals/comments,proposed/approved/actual capacity and number of turbines,press releases, media articles, legal cases, municipal/countydeclared “unwilling host”, et al.

Sources: Ontario Power Authority/Independent Electricity System OperatorOntario Energy BoardMinistry of the Environment and Climate ChangeCanadian Wind Energy Associationdeveloper, municipality, wind action group, and newspaper web siteslegal and media databases, et al.

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Data: Wind Generation Projects

Wind Projects by StatusOperating 98Construction 20Proposed 12Withdrawn/Cancelled 48Unknown 17Total 195

Number of Projects Affected“Social Resistance” 97Legal Cases 61Regulatory Appeals 61Unwilling Host Declaration 69

Projects by Generation ContractFIT 114RESOP 52Standard Generation 29Total 195

Projects by RegulationPre-GEA 76Post-GEA 119Total 195

Note: Data as of end of 2015

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All ON Wind Power Projects

¹ 0 110 220 330 44055Km

Wind Turbine Sites

Wind Turbine Sitesin Ontario

Map composed by Alex Cebulski on November 1, 2015

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Southwest ON Projects by Status

Sudbury

Nipissing

Algoma

Renfrew

Grey

Parry Sound

Hastings

Simcoe

Bruce

Huron

Muskoka

York

LanarkHaliburton

Ottawa

Perth

Frontenac

ElginLambton

Durham

Middlesex

Peterborough

Oxford

Essex

Manitoulin

Wellington Peel

NiagaraBrant

Dufferin

Chatham-Kent

Waterloo Halton

Kawartha LakesLeeds and Grenville

Haldimand-Norfolk

Lennox and Addington

Hamilton

Northumberland

Greater Sudbury / Grand Sudbury

Toronto

Prince Edward

Timiskaming

¹ 0 50 100 150 20025Km

StageN/AActiveProposedWithdrawn

Stage of Wind Turbine Developmentin Southwest Ontario

Map composed by Alex Cebulski on November 1, 2015

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Projects by Date of Proposal

Sudbury

Algoma

Nipissing

Renfrew

Timiskaming

Grey

Parry Sound

Hastings

SimcoeBruce

Huron

Muskoka

York

LanarkHaliburton

Perth

Frontenac

Ottawa

ElginLambton

Durham

Middlesex

Peterborough

Oxford

Essex

Manitoulin

Wellington Peel

NiagaraBrant

Dufferin

Waterloo

Kawartha LakesLeeds and Grenville

Chatham-Kent

Haldimand-Norfolk

Halton

Lennox and Addington

Hamilton

Northumberland

Greater Sudbury / Grand Sudbury

Toronto

Prince Edward

¹ 0 60 120 180 24030Km

Site Proposal2002 - 20042005 - 20062007 - 20092010 - 20122013 - 2015

Date of Site Proposal for Wind Turbine Sitesin Southwest Ontario

Map composed by Alex Cebulski on November 1, 2015

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Data: Measures of Resistance

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Social Resistance

Sudbury

Nipissing

Algoma

Renfrew

Grey

Parry Sound

Hastings

Simcoe

Bruce

Huron

Muskoka

York

LanarkHaliburton

Ottawa

Perth

Frontenac

ElginLambton

Durham

Middlesex

Peterborough

Oxford

Essex

Manitoulin

Wellington Peel

NiagaraBrant

Dufferin

Chatham-Kent

Waterloo Halton

Kawartha LakesLeeds and Grenville

Haldimand-Norfolk

Lennox and Addington

Hamilton

Northumberland

Greater Sudbury / Grand Sudbury

Toronto

Prince Edward

Timiskaming

¹ 0 50 100 150 20025Km

Social Resistance01

Number of Wind Turbines0 - 1314 - 3637 - 7273 - 123124 - 270

Wind Turbine Site Social Resistancein Southwest Ontario

Map composed by Alex Cebulski on November 1, 2015

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Legal Cases

Sudbury

Nipissing

Algoma

Renfrew

Grey

Parry Sound

Hastings

Simcoe

Bruce

Huron

Muskoka

York

LanarkHaliburton

Ottawa

Perth

Frontenac

ElginLambton

Durham

Middlesex

Peterborough

Oxford

Essex

Manitoulin

Wellington Peel

NiagaraBrant

Dufferin

Chatham-Kent

Waterloo Halton

Kawartha LakesLeeds and Grenville

Haldimand-Norfolk

Lennox and Addington

Hamilton

Northumberland

Greater Sudbury / Grand Sudbury

Toronto

Prince Edward

Timiskaming

¹ 0 50 100 150 20025Km

Legal Resistance01

Number of Wind Turbines0 - 1314 - 3637 - 7273 - 123124 - 270

Wind Turbine Site Legal Resistancein Southwest Ontario

Map composed by Alex Cebulski on November 1, 2015

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Regulatory Appeals

Sudbury

Nipissing

Algoma

Renfrew

Grey

Parry Sound

Hastings

Simcoe

Bruce

Huron

Muskoka

York

LanarkHaliburton

Ottawa

Perth

Frontenac

ElginLambton

Durham

Middlesex

Peterborough

Oxford

Essex

Manitoulin

Wellington Peel

NiagaraBrant

Dufferin

Chatham-Kent

Waterloo Halton

Kawartha LakesLeeds and Grenville

Haldimand-Norfolk

Lennox and Addington

Hamilton

Northumberland

Greater Sudbury / Grand Sudbury

Toronto

Prince Edward

Timiskaming

¹ 0 50 100 150 20025Km

Appeal01

Number of Wind Turbines0 - 1314 - 3637 - 7273 - 123124 - 270

Wind Turbine Site Appealin Southwest Ontario

Map composed by Alex Cebulski on November 1, 2015

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Preliminary Results:

Turbines_marchNumber of Turbines

0 - 2930 - 7778 - 140

141 - 270

271 - 715

Median Income0.00 - 8346.008346.01 - 22684.0022684.01 - 30118.0030118.01 - 35592.0035592.01 - 46028.00

0 1 2 3 40.5Kilometers ±

Number of Turbines Versus Median Income

Data from Statistics Canada. Coordinate System NAD 1983. Composed by Alex Cebulski.18 / 22

Preliminary Results:

Turbines_marchNumber of Turbines

0 - 2930 - 7778 - 140

141 - 270

271 - 715

% With Post Secondary Education0.157894737 - 0.3131313130.313131314 - 0.3873015870.387301588 - 0.4346924670.434692468 - 0.5020501140.502050115 - 0.700000000

0 1 2 3 40.5Kilometers ±

Number of Turbines Versus Percent of Population with Post Secondary Education

Data from Statistics Canada. Coordinate System NAD 1983. Composed by Alex Cebulski.19 / 22

Preliminary Results:

Turbines_marchNumber of Turbines

0 - 2930 - 7778 - 140

141 - 270

271 - 715

Median Shelter Cost0.00 - 50135.0050135.01 - 160388.00160388.01 - 240575.00240575.01 - 370095.00370095.01 - 647478.00

0 1 2 3 40.5Kilometers ±

Number of Turbines Versus Median Shelter Cost

Data from Statistics Canada. Coordinate System NAD 1983. Composed by Alex Cebulski.20 / 22

Preliminary Results:

REA Comments0 - 4344 - 168169 - 297

298 - 1602

1603 - 2874

Median Shelter Cost0.00 - 50135.0050135.01 - 160388.00160388.01 - 240575.00240575.01 - 370095.00370095.01 - 647478.00

0 1 2 3 40.5Kilometers ±

Number of Renewable Energy Act Comments Versus Median Shelter Cost

Data from Statistics Canada. Coordinate System NAD 1983. Composed by Alex Cebulski.21 / 22

Summary & Next Steps

Only considering active/operating/installed projects misses themajority of wind development projects in ON and maysignificantly bias conclusions about social license issues

No obvious patterns emerge from case study or GIS maps ofwind development projects

Public census data is too aggregated for meaningful statisticalanalysis in differences in community acceptance of winddevelopment sites

Need to merge project dataset with census microdata and landcover data to further quantitative analysis

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