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Renewable Energy Outlook and Future R&D Needs Bryan Hannegan, Ph.D. Vice President, Environment & Renewables EPRI Climate Research Seminar May 18, 2010

Renewable Energy Outlook and Future R&D Needs · Renewable Energy Outlook and Future R&D Needs Bryan Hannegan, Ph.D. Vice President, Environment & Renewables EPRI Climate Research

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Renewable Energy Outlook and Future R&D Needs

Bryan Hannegan, Ph.D.Vice President, Environment & Renewables

EPRI Climate Research SeminarMay 18, 2010

2© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

Year

MW

13% CAGR’01-’08

19% CAGR’09-’15 forecast

Biopower27.60%

Geothermal Power8.52%

Solar3.44%

Wind60.43%

Renewables: Why Now?North American Installed Capacity 2001-2015

Source: GBI Research, 2010

3© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

State renewable portfolio standard

State renewable portfolio goal

www.dsireusa.orgJanuary 2010

*† Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables

Includes non-renewable alternative resources

WA: 15% by 2020*

CA: 33% by 2020

☼ NV: 25% by 2025*

☼ AZ: 15% by 2025

☼ NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops)

HI: 40% by 2030

☼ Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

UT: 20% by 2025*

☼ CO: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*

MT: 15% by 2015

ND: 10% by 2015

SD: 10% by 2015

IA: 105 MW

MN: 25% by 2025(Xcel: 30% by 2020)

☼ MO: 15% by 2021

WI: Varies by utility; 10% by 2015 goal

MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015*

☼ OH: 25% by 2025†

ME: 30% by 2000New RE: 10% by 2017

☼ NH: 23.8% by 2025

☼ MA: 15% by 2020+ 1% annual increase(Class I Renewables)

RI: 16% by 2020

CT: 23% by 2020

☼ NY: 24% by 2013

☼ NJ: 22.5% by 2021

☼ PA: 18% by 2020†

☼ MD: 20% by 2022

☼ DE: 20% by 2019*

☼ DC: 20% by 2020

VA: 15% by 2025*

☼ NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs)10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis)

VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by 2012;

(2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017

KS: 20% by 2020

☼ OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities)*5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)

☼ IL: 25% by 2025WV: 25% by 2025*†

Renewables: Why Now?29 States + DC Have Renewable Portfolio Standards

4© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Renewables: Why Now?U.S. Projected Generation 2007-2030

Source: EIA AEO 2009

5© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Renewables: Why Now?EPRI MERGE – Two Possible Future Mixes

Coal

Gas

Wind

Demand Reduction

New Coal + CCSCoal

Gas

WindNuclear

Demand Reduction

Nuclear

Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

CCS Retrofit

Biomass

Hydro

Renewables are > 20% by 2030 in both scenarios

6© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

What are the challenges posed by increasing amounts of renewable energy?

7© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

IGCC

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Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh

Cost of CO2, $/Metric Ton

All costs are in December 2008 $

PC

The Cost Challenge

Nuclear ($4860/kW)

Wind (35% CF)

Biomass

No investment or production tax credits are assumed for any technology.

Solar thermal LCOE ranges between $225-$290/MWh

Rev. October 2009

NGCC ($5-8/MMBtu)

Renewables “out of the money” without incentives90% confidence level values based on EPRI Report 1019539

8© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Integration Challenge

High Levels of Variable Wind and Solar PV Will Present an Operating Challenge!

9© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

• Understanding the interactions– Characterizing the renewable resource– Interactions with species and habitat– Life cycle assessment– Human health and safety

• Advancing improved approaches– Siting methodologies– Technology and operational improvements– Mitigation strategies

• Large scale impacts and limitations– Assess the impacts of “harvesting” renewables at large scales

The Environmental Challenge

10© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

What are the opportunities to enable increasing amounts of wind energy?

11© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Utility-Scale Wind Evaluation• Locations:

– Base Case– California– Texas– Michigan– New York– Offshore NY

• Conceptual design, performance, capital and O&M cost, levelized COE

• Source: EPRI Renewable Energy Technology Guide (1017598, 2/28/10)

Current Wind Project Cost and Performance

12© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Current Wind Project Cost and Performance

Levelized COE (4th Quarter 2009 $)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

BaseCase

100 MW

California100 MW

Texas 200 MW

Michigan150 MW

New York50 MW

NYOffshore201.6 MW

$/MWhAnnual Capacity Factor

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BaseCase

100 MW

California100 MW

Texas 200 MW

Michigan150 MW

New York50 MW

NYOffshore201.6 MW

With 30% Investment Tax Credit

13© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Wind Generation R&D Needs

• Wind Power Technology Assessment– Drive train, generators, blades,

towers, sensors and controls

• Wind Power Asset Management– Status of O&M and asset

management technologies• Condition Monitoring and NDE• O&M procedures

– Wind turbine asset management guidebook

14© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

NERC IVGTF Special Report

Defines Reliability Needs

• New Transmission Planning Tools and Methods to Integrate High Variable Resources

• New Methods to Determine Supply Capacity and Reserve Requirements

• New Methods to Determine Supply Capacity and Reserve Requirements

• New Operator Decision-Making Tools and Improved Frequency Control Methods

• Technical Performance Specs for VG/DR/PHEV

• Other EPRI Programs – ElectriNet, Storage

Transmission Development

Resource Adequacy

Advance Operator Tools

Flexible System Resources

Wind Integration R&D Needs

15© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

What are the opportunities to enable increasing amounts of solar energy?

16© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Current Solar PV Cost and Performance

Central Station PV Evaluation• 6 PV Technologies:

– Fixed Flat Plate a-Si– Fixed Flat Plate CdTe– Fixed Flat Plate c-Si– 1-Axis Tracking c-Si– Tilted 1-Axis Tracking c-Si– 2-Axis Tracking CPV

• Four Locations:– Las Vegas, NV– Alamosa, CO– Jacksonville, FL– Columbus, OH

17© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Current Solar PV Cost and Performance

Levelized COE (4th Quarter 2009 $)

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

Fixed a-Si Fixed CdTe Fixed c-Si 1-Axis c-SI Tilted 1-Axis c-Si 2-Axis CPV

PV Technology

Las Vegas, NV Alamosa, CO Jacksonville, FL Columbus, OH

With 30% Investment Tax Credit

$/MWh

18© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

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6 Hours Storage

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CSP Feasibility Study in New Mexico

• Participants: PNM, Tri-State, Xcel, SCE, SDG&E, EPE• Conclusions:

– Molten salt central receiver has potential for 20% cost reduction– Storage and hybridization lower LCOE by up to 8% – Capacity factors approach 40% with 6 hours storage

125 MW Parabolic Trough 125 MW Central Receiver

* 2009$

* Includes financial incentives

19© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Central Station Solar R&D Needs

• Solar Augmented Steam Cycle Applications Analysis– Analyze new applications

• Greenfield• Integration with biomass or

geothermal• Solar Technology Acceleration

Center (SolarTAC)– Benchmark PV/CPV technologies– SolarTAC demo projects

• Solar Thermal Storage Technology Assessment – Field data for installations– Identify hosts for collaborative

evaluations of thermal storage performance

20© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Distributed PV Integration R&D Needs

• High Penetration PV Impact on Circuits– Model development and system impact evaluation– Economic Assessment– Demonstration on selected feeders

• Distribution PV Monitoring Project– Understand the performance characteristics under

various environmental and climatic conditions– Large population of units – Monitoring protocol and package

• Operations and Maintenance Needs– Assess maintenance practice– Develop needs, gap analysis– Identify opportunities for improvement

21© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Distributed PV Monitoring at Alabama Power

• 4 different arrays (1.1 kW each)• Side-by-side performance comparison• System integration, evaluation using

micro-inverters on each panel• Increased understanding of PV

operations in southeast climate

Panel Type(Silicon)

Panel CostJune ‘09

($/W)

Panel Cost May ‘10

($/W)Polycrystalline $ 3.54 $ 2.42

Monocrystalline $ 3.50 $ 2.74Thin film (flexible) $ 4.22 $ 3.54

Heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer $ 4.60 $ 4.46

as purchased today

22© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

What are the opportunities to enable increasing amounts of biomass energy?

23© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Biomass Repowering of Existing Units

Existing Mills

PotentialSupplemental Mills

Change Coal Bunkers

Boiler

UREA (SNCR)

ESP

Air Heater

Customers

Barge Unloading

Coal Reclaim

Wood Reclaim

Coal Pile

New Wood Storage

n Weatherproof barge unloading and conveyance

– Keep pellets dry– New buildings

n Bunker and mill changes for wood pellets̶ Fuel milling̶ Dust suppression̶ Fire protection

n Boiler changes– Accommodate higher flue gas

velocities and temperaturesn New burner system

– Reduce NOx emissionsn Change SNCR systemn Change ash handling and

disposal system

n New wood storage buildingsn Change conveyor

– Keep pellets dry– Address steep angles– Dust suppression– Fire protection

Truck or Rail Unloading

Turbine/Generator

Slide courtesy of FirstEnergy, 2009

24© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Biomass R&D Needs

• Biomass Supply Management– Long-term supply security– Development of multiple supply chains– Assessment of energy plantations

• Power Generation from Biomass– Impact on environmental equipment– Biomass plant cost database– Ash utilization– Torrefied wood full-scale tests– Methods to increase co-firing fraction

• Life Cycle Analysis of Biomass-Based Power– Updated biomass-to-power carbon footprint– Land, water implications of biomass supply– Broad deployment of biomass power plants:

environmental implications

25© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

What are the opportunities to enable increasing amounts of geothermal energy?

26© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Deep EGS Potential Significant, Widespread

Challenges:

1.Resource conversion

2.Injection of fluids

3.Induced seismicity

EGS – Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Slide and data courtesy of NREL, 2010

27© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

UTCGenerator

Closed Cycle System

Grout

HeatExchanger

HeatNest™

HeatReservoir

High Conductivity Material

Single-Well Technology Developed by GTherm

28© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Geothermal R&D Needs

• Geothermal Operations and Maintenance– Plant evaluations and

assessments– O&M handbook– Training and technology transfer

• Assessment of Geothermal Power Technologies– Engineering and economic

analysis of low- and moderate-temperature geothermal resources and technologies

– Identify demonstration projects for advanced geothermal or EGS

29© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

What are the opportunities to enable increasing amounts of waterpower?

30© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

What is Waterpower?

• Conventional Hydropower• Pumped Storage• Ocean Energy

– Wave energy conversion– Thermal gradient– Ocean currents

• Instream Energy Conversion– River or inland

hydrokinetics (RISEC)– Tidal hydrokinetics

(TISEC)

31© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

EPRI Waterpower Potential Update Report

• To be published April 2010– 3 briefing papers to follow

(potential, R&D needs, economic incentives)

• NHA used 2007 EPRI assessment to convince Congress of need for R&D funding:– $10 million FY08; – $40 million FY09; – $50 million FY10:vs. $0 nothing FY05-07

Category Potential By 2025ConvHydro

58,000 13,750

Pumped Storage

* 10,000

HK River 12,500 500-3,000

HK Tidal NA 500-3,000

Wave ~20,000 10,000

(~40,000 MW by 2025)

32© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Waterpower R&D Needs*

Conventional Priorities:1. Advance turbine development2. Technology deployment and

testing3. Fish passage and protection4. Hydro GHG emissions5. Optimization and efficiency

improvement research6. Resource assessment updates7. Wind-hydropower integration8. Pumped-storage development

and bench-marking

Ocean and HydrokineticPriorities:1. Technology development2. Technology deployment and

testing3. Environmental impact research4. Development of international

standards for design, testing, and performance metrics

*2008 EPRI-DOE Waterpower Industry R&D Prioritization

Workshop

33© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

How can energy storage and the smart grid enable increasing amounts of renewables?

34© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Aboveground CAES

Lead-Acid Batteries

NaS BatteriesLithium Ion:Most cost-effective for short durations

CAES:Most cost-effective for long durations

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Lithium Ion:Most cost-effective for short durations

CAES:Most cost-effective for long durations

Lithium Ion (Projected, 2020)

All costs in 2010 DollarsCosts are installed costs and include all necessary power electronics and balance of plant

Underground CAES

Data from Electric Energy Storage: Technology Options(EPRI White Paper to be released December 2009)

Energy Storage Likely to Play a Role

35© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Smart Grid Demonstrations Tie It All Together

• Deploying the Virtual Power Plant

• Demonstrate Integration and Interoperability

• Leverage information & Communication Technologies

• Integration of Multiple Types of Distributed Energy Resources (DER):

• Storage• Demand Response

• Renewable Generation• Distributed Generation

• Multiple Levels of Integration - Interoperability

36© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Making Renewable Energy Work

• Reduce Cost of Generation Technology Options

• Integrate Variable Generation with Transmission and Distribution

• Optimize with Energy Storage and the Smart Grid

• Understand and Minimize Environmental Impacts

Public/Private Collaboration Needed!

37© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity