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Renewables 2017
Dr. Ute Collier
Presentation to UNECE GERE, Geneva, 2 November 2017
© IEA 2017
2016 – Renewables hit new records driven by solar PV
For the first time, a single renewable fuel became the largest source of net capacity growth,
while all renewables provided an all-time record of two-thirds of global net capacity additions.
Electricity capacity additions by fuel 2016
0 50 100 150 200
Renewables
Gas
Wind
Solar PV
Coal
Additions (GW)
Retirements
© IEA 2017
Renewable policies transition to bring more competition
Competitive tenders with long-term contracts will drive almost half of new capacity growth globally;
the timing of policy transition in China may accelerate this trend further.
Renewable capacity growth by type of policy to define remuneration levels
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017-22 2017-22 (excluding China)
Competitively set
Administratively set
© IEA 2017
Price discovery through competitive auctions effectively reduces costs along the entire value chain;
Auctions with long-term contracts will drive almost half of new capacity growth over 2017-22
Announced wind and solar PV average auction prices by commissioning date
Competition is driving down costs
0
50
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0
5
10
15
20
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
USD/MWh Capacity (GW)
Solar PV utility-scale auction capacity Onshore wind auction capacity
Onshore wind average price (right axis) Solar PV average price (right axis)
© IEA 2017
China holds the key to the new solar PV era
China’s domestic demand for new capacity has become almost as important for a sustainable solar PV
market as its role in global manufacturing.
Solar PV annual demand, China’s share in global manufacturing and demand
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
20
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100
120
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Capacity (GW)
PV additions accelerated case PV annual additions main case
% of China in total manufacturing (right axis) % of China in global annual additions (main case)
© IEA 2017
Wind and solar transform the power sector; system integration becomes key
Flexible power systems and market design will play a key role in integrating
larger shares of wind and solar in a secure and cost-effective way.
VRE share in annual electricity generation 2016-22
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Japan
Brazil
India
China
United States
Australi
Mexico
United Kingdom
Germany
Spain
Ireland
Denmark
% of total generation
PV share in 2016
Wind share in 2016
Additional PV sharein 2022
Additional wind sharein 2022
© IEA 2017
Renewables close the gap with coal
Renewable generation to expand by over a third, with its share increasing from 24% in 2016 to 30% in
2022. Renewables are getting close to becoming largest source of generation globally.
Electricity generation by fuel
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
Generation (TWh)
Coal
Natural gas
Renewables
© IEA 2017
UNECE17 is likely to see only moderate growth from a very small base falling. Growth is led by
additions in Ukraine and Russia driven by good policy support.
Renewable capacity growth by country/region
UNECE is the slowest growing region despite good potential
0
50
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China United States EU India Japan Brazil Africa&ME UNECE
Capacity growth (GW)
2011-16 2017-22 main case Additional accelerated
17
© IEA 2017
Hydropower remains the dominant technology in the region
Non-hydropower technologies increase slowly and will account for nearly half of new additions over
2017-22, driven by FITs and auctions.
UNECE18 renewable energy capacity 2016-22
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2016 2017-22 additions main case Accelerated case
GW
Other renewables
Solar PV
Wind
Hydropower
© IEA 2017
Global growth in renewable heat consumption is double that of the UNECE17 countries. China leads
global growth with deployment in biomass, solar thermal and geothermal.
Renewable heat in UNECE – slow growth from a low base
UNECE17 final renewable heat consumption 2015 and 2022
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2022
Mtoe
Modern bioenergy Solar thermal Geothermal Renewable district heat Renewable electricity
12%
© IEA 2017
Progress in renewable heat depends on strong policies
The share of renewables in global heat consumption rises to 11% in 2022. China leads growth with new
targets; UNECE17 shows very little growth due to the absence of policies.
Share of renewables in heat consumption by selected countries/regions
© IEA 2017
Renewables to supply almost a third of EV demand in 2022
China accounts for almost 90% of global EV electricity consumption in 2022, mostly from 2/3 wheelers,
and remains the largest electric car market, followed by Europe and the United States.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
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2016 2022
TWh
EV-2/3 wheels EV-cars EV-buses Renewableshare of consumption
Global electricity consumption by EVs and share of renewable consumption in 2016 and forecast for 2022
© IEA 2017
By 2022 conventional biofuels should still account for 92% of renewable energy consumption in road transport;
most renewable electricity demand is from China’s 2/3 wheeler fleet as electric cars account for just 1%.
Renewable energy consumption in road transport 2016 (left) and 2022 (right)
Biofuels still forecast to account for most renewables in road transport by 2022
Ethanol Biodiesel and HVO EV - 2/3-wheelersAdvanced biofuels EV - car EV - buses
Total: 3.5 EJ Total: 4.2 EJ
© IEA 2017
Concluding remarks
• Renewables dominate global electricity generation growth reaching over 8000TWh
in 2022, equal to the current combined power consumption of China, India and
Germany.
• Wind and solar PV dominance in the forecast calls for policies addressing grid
integration of variable renewables.
• The share of renewable heat rises only marginally - more policy action is required
to address sector-specific barriers.
• Despite a surge in electric vehicles, transport decarbonisation remains a major
policy challenge, with advanced biofuels requiring specific incentives.
• UNECE17 lags behind in all three sectors and has plenty of unexploited potential.
