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Renewable Energy in Wisconsin: Anatomy of a Long, Strange Trip …
And Where We’re Headed Next
Michael VickermanRENEW WisconsinOctober 17, 2011
Sierra Club – Great Waters Group Milwaukee, WI
About RENEW WisconsinAdvocates for state-level sustainable energy policies since 1991
One of the architects of the state’s Renewable Energy Standard and ratepayer-funded public benefits program
Top three policy priorities for 2010
* Uniform Permitting Standards for Wind
* Increased Renewable Energy Standard
* Advanced Renewable Tariffs
Developing an on-line Wisconsin Wind Information Center (www.wiwindinfo.net)
An organized voice for renewable energy producers and purchasers!
Windy afternoon (10-14-11)
Butler Ridge project
Hwy 33 east of Hwy 67
How RENEW Promotes Renewable Energy
Strengthening Utility Renewable Energy Requirements Fighting for Funding Security for Focus on Energy Promoting Voluntary RE Purchases Educating Media, Policymakers on RE Benefits Partnering with Proactive Utilities Increasing Renewable Energy Tariffs (buyback rates)
About RENEW Wisconsin Founded in 1991
Nonprofit – funding comes from grants, members
Over 275 members (businesses and individual)
Please join!
Presentation Outline
Survey of Energy Realities – Where I’m Coming from Investing for America’s Future vs. Propping up
America’s Unsustainable Past and Present Images of Sustainable Energy Why Wind Energy is a Plus for Wisconsin Renewable Energy Policy Advances + Reversals
Key Terms and Concepts
Stores (fossil energy) vs. flows (renewables)
On-demand energy vs. as-available energy
The Solar Ration (using the interest, not the principal)
Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) Means transition from highly energetic resources
like petroleum + NG to less energetic renewable resources is like swimming upstream
Hubbert’s Curve (Peak Oil/Peak Energy)
Sources vs. sinks
Energy literacy vs. energy numeracy
Energy Sources
Native to Wisconsin Sunlight
Wood
Manure
Wind
Hydro
Crops (grasses, corn, etc.) Wastes (LFG, wastewater) Geothermal (storage)
Constituting 5% of energy used
Not Native to Wisconsin
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Uranium
Geysers
Constituting 95% of energy used
Fossil fuel imports hurt Wisconsin’s economy
$
Wisconsin Energy Trade Deficit
~$8 Billion/Year in 2003.
>$18 Billion in 2010
Overcoming Economics 101
“Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.” – Kenneth Boulding
****************************************
Q. How many economists does it take to screw in a light bulb?A. None. If it really needed changing, market forces would have caused it to happen.
Energy Policy Must Recognize Energy Realities
Supplies of liquid fuels peaked in 2008
Capital is disappearing before our very eyes
Energy and food are the original currencies
The shift from stores to flows is inevitable
Current economy is highly energy-intensive
EROEI must inform decision-making
We can’t afford to prop up existing energy sinks or
engage in wealth-draining military adventures
But Economic Signals Are Confusing – Signs of
Deflation Consumption of energy has declined since 2008
Natural gas prices in a protracted slump
Coal generation has become more expensive – due
to declining mine productivity, rising transportation
costs
Energy markets influenced by other markets (oil
follows the Euro)
Weakness in housing, manufacturing, employment
pull energy prices lower.
Peak Oil SupplyPeak Crude
Peak Unconventional?
Peak DemandPeak Mobility
Peak Shipping
Peak Power?
Peak EconomyPeak Credit
Peak Housing Values
Peak Income
Peak Jobs?
Have We Hit the Wall?
Three Paths to Choose From
Entering the Post-Peak
Environment
Plan A
Business As Usual
Plan B
Green New Deal
Plan C
Curtailment and Community
Capsule Descriptions of Plans
Plan A Complete denial of reality -- recipe for massive political turmoil/social
upheaval in the near future Plan B Purely a substitution strategy -- does
not question premise of existing economy – ignores Jevons’ Paradox
Plan C Recognizes need to downsize economy, de-consumerize citizenry,
and de-specialize society
Renewable Energy Pluses
Energy Security Energy Security Energy Security Price Security Environmental Economic Economic
Native to Wisconsin
Customer generation
Non-depleting
No fuel-based inflation
No air/water emissions
Local contractors/labor
Strengthens tax base
Renewable Energy Minuses Energy Supply Energy Supply Energy Supply Economic Economic
Physics
Difficult to scale up Non-dispatchable Weather-dependent Higher capital costs More labor-intensive (a
blessing in disguise)
Lower EROEI (except for commercial-scale wind) and large hydro
Plan A Value Proposition: Tomorrow’s Wealth Feeds Today’s
Economy
Coal, Natural Gas, Nuclear
Benefits (cheap electricity) front-loaded, costs (environmental mitigation) backloaded
Fuel used today means less available tomorrow EROEI of fuels likely to decline over time Pollution, waste storage not factored into initial
economic analysis
Result: Intergenerational imbalance favors current inhabitants.
Plan C Value Proposition: Today’s Wealth FeedsTomorrow’s
Economy
Solar, Wind, Hydro, BioenergyCosts (expensive equipment) front-loaded,
benefits (fuel, low O&M) backloaded Longer-lived projects Output declines are slight EROEI of energy sources remains constant Environmental constraints increase RE’s value
Result: Intergenerational imbalance favors future inhabitants.
Question: Is there enough stored wealth to finance
energy transition? Yes in nations like Germany, where there is
a national consensus to remake their energy economy.
Doubtful in nations like the U.S., because incumbent economic interests are effectively deploying $$ to neutralize public policy.
Here’s an Economic Development Strategy with No
FutureCasino,
French Lick,
Indiana
This bloated vessel doesn’t even float!!
This is an overscaled, highly entropic operation that devours energy like there’s no tomorrow.
Can RE Run a Residential Golf Resort?
Tesoro,
Port St. Lucie,
Florida
Tesoro’s $48 million clubhouse amid 750 empty lots
“When the depression ends, there will be a pent-up demand for happiness”
--Bobby Ginn
We Have to Stop Outsourcing Energy Capture and Start Doing It Ourselves
My house
This Fire Station Has a Long-Term Future
Madison Fire Station No. 6
Installer:
H&H Solar
This School Has a Long-Term Future
Osceola Middle School
System Designer: Energy Concepts
Installer: Steiner Plumbing
This Church Has a Long-Term Future
Church of the Resurrection
Pewaukee
System designer and installer: Sunvest
So Does this House of WorshipLake Country Unitarian Universalist Church
Hartland
System designer and installer: Sunvest
This Lodge Has a Long-Term Future
Elks Club, Good Hope Road, Milwaukee
This Business Has a Long-Term Future
Liberty Tax Service, Good Hope Road,
Milwaukee
Casino,
French Lick,
Indiana
It would be next to impossible to support this monstrosity with renewable energy, even if all the lights inside were powered with LED’s. Its scale is simply too large.
Observation #1
To run a world on renewable energy, a new infrastructure and set of expectations must be created. Because the EROEI of renewables is less than that of fossil fuels, the new infrastructure must be built with today’s wealth before it is frittered away on socially unproductive products and activities (McMansions, NASCAR, casinos, bank bailouts, etc.).
Observation # 2
The most agonizing decisions that await us will involve determining which elements of our built environment can be supported with renewable energy and which elements cannot. With a lower EROEI, we will not be able to run a world that formerly ran on cheap, abundant fossil fuels. We have little choice but to downsize our buildings, downscale our communities, and reorganize the economy.
Wisconsin Energy Facts
No reserves of fossil fuels
Long supply lines to deliver coal, oil, natural
gas
Primary energy imports valued at $15 billion/yr
Renewable energy is locally available
Why Support Windpower?
Clean Environmental Non-depleting Energy Security Fixed Price Risk Management Creates Wealth Economic
Development Scalable to Utilities Practicality
A sustainable source of wealth for Wisconsin!!
An Often Overlooked Attribute of Wind Power
It doesn’t take any fossil fuel to bring the wind to the turbine blades.
Windpower Strengthens WI Communities
Left: Butler Ridge Right: Glacier Hills
Both projects are along Highway 33 about 40 miles apart
The Importance of a National Energy Policy
Source: American Wind Energy Association, 2011
Iowa: 20% of its electricity + jobs + economic growth
Iowa second-largest state for wind power in the U.S. Now received 20% of its electricity from wind energy
» Iowa employs over 5,000 people in the wind energy industry, many of them in the manufacturing sector
Source: American Wind Energy Association, 2011
Attacks on Wind Energy in Wisconsin in 2011
Introduction of special session bill that would have required unreasonable setbacks of 1,800 feet from property lines. (Note: this was the only Walker proposal not approved by the Legislature.
Suspension of the uniform wind siting rules (PSC 128) by the Joint Committee
for Review of Administrative Rules.
Adoption of SB 81 (“Outsource Renewable Energy to Canada Act”),allowing utilities to count the purchase of electricity from large Canadian hydroelectric facilities toward their Renewable Energy Standard (RES), displacing in-state generation from wind and other renewable energy sources.
Bill introduced (AB 146) to indefinitely extend RES time limits for electric utilities to comply.
Source: American Wind Energy Association, 2011
Wisconsin: Losing Jobs, Economic Wisconsin: Losing Jobs, Economic DevelopmentDevelopment
» State has already seen several wind projects canceled or deferred – total could reach:• Loss of $ 1.8 billion• Loss of 2 million job-hours of construction
Source:American Wind Energy Association,2011
Wisconsin: Losing Jobs, Economic Wisconsin: Losing Jobs, Economic DevelopmentDevelopment
Wind energy industry jobs are leaving Wisconsin for IA, IL, MI, and IN….
Businesses are closing in Wisconsin
Source:American Wind Energy Association,2011
Snapshot - Midwest Windpower Development
ActivityState Operating
capacity (in MW)
Under construction (in MW)
Iowa 3705 589
Minnesota 2518 271
Illinois 2435 563
Indiana 1339 --
Wisconsin 469 167
Missouri 459 --
Michigan 164 223
Ohio 106 334
Sources: American Wind Energy Association, Windpower Monthly, RENEW Wisconsin
Thesis Statement and Corollary
Economies of scale are achieved by shrinking the labor contribution relative to output, which explains why utility-scale energy is less expensive than do-it-yourself energy.
Distributing renewable energy through customer-sited systems increases job-hours per energy unit produced as well as promoting entrepreneurship and small business development.
Economic Development Impacts of Community-Scale RE
Revitalizing ourselves through community-scale projects that employ local labor to build a sustainably energized society.
From Small Systems – Big Results
Example - Germany
Utilities are required to accept power from customer-sited RE systems through fixed, long-term buyback rates
20% of Germany’s electricity now generated from renewables 7,000 MW of PV to be installed in 2011 Germany has more than half the world’s PV capacity Payoff: 300,000 people employed in the RE sector Rapidly electrifying freight rail transportation
Social Rationale for Mandating Distributed Renewables
1) Economic Developmenta. Manufacturing
b. Wealth Creation
c. Employment and Jobs
2) Energy Security
3) Climate Change
GHD, Inc. Environmental engineering firm specializing in farm-sited anaerobic digesters
Based in Chilton, incorporated in 1989
Notable WI installations: Holsum Dairy (1+2), Quantum Dairy, Lake Breeze, Clover Hill, Statz Brothers, Grotegut, Maple Leaf (1 +2)
73 ADs operating at 38 farms & 19 under construction at 14 farms; found in 13 states
Uses a patented two-stage, mixed plug-flow digester design
No. of FTE employees: 40
Clover Hill Dairy, Campbellsport, WI - 2006
www.ghdinc.net
Green Valley Farm, Shawano
Slide courtesy of Focus on Energy
Renewable Energy Policy Successes
1999 -2009
1999 - Focus on Energy (Renewable Energy Program) 2002 – We Energies Renewable Energy Commitment 2006 - Renewable Energy Standard (10% by 2015) 2006 – Strengthened Focus on Energy 2006 – State of Wisconsin RE Purchase Requirement 2009 – Wind Energy Siting Law
Renewable Energy Policy Reversals
2010 - 2011
Clean Energy Jobs Act Goes Down the Tubes Legislature Slashes 2012 Focus on Energy Budget New FOE Administrator Suspends Incentives for RE Legislature Waters Down RES w/ Canadian Hydro Bill Introduced to Relax RE Credit Banking Rules Legislature Suspends Wind Energy Siting Rule
We Energies Does About Face on Renewables
2006 Press Release
We Energies announces PSC approval of voluntary renewable energy program
$60 million on RE over a 10-year period ($6 million/year)
Commitment based on agreement w/ RENEW not to oppose Elm Road coal plants
2011 Web Site Notice
We Energies unilaterally terminates program halfway through the 10-year period
Nonprofit Recipients of We Energies’ Renewable Energy
Incentives
Village of Cascade (wind) Shorewood Schools (SHW) MKE Public Library (PV) MSOE (PV) City of Brookfield (PV) City of Wauwatosa (PV) Concordia Univ. (PV) Growing Power (PV)
Renewable energy system hosts Lawrence Univ. (PV, wind) MATC (PV, wind) Waukesha Cty TC (PV) Ft. Atkinson Schools (PV, SHW,
wind) Dozens of churches (PV) City of Racine (PV) Racine EcoJustice Ctr. (PV,
wind)
What You Can Do
Demand an explanation from We Energies for its decision to terminate its renewable energy commitment halfway through the program.
Help RENEW publicize We Energies’ refusal to honor its commitments.
What You Can Do (cont.)
Fight the rollbacks (retreat from renewables) Contact your legislators The Governor’s office The PSC
Carol Stemrich: [email protected] DOA Energy Division
Kevin Vesperman: [email protected]
Never Give Up!
Butler Ridge viewed from the Town of Addison Our vision of rural Wisconsin
Michael Vickerman
RENEW Wisconsin 608.255.4044
http://renewwisconsinblog.org/www.madisonpeakoil-blog.blogspot.com