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Renewable Energy for KenyaPractitioners’ Forum on Renewable Energy
24. September 2019
Thilo Vogeler
Head of Competence Center Energy & Environment
2 | 24. September 2019| Thilo Vogeler
The Delegation of German Industry and
Commerce for Eastern Africa
3 | 24. September 2019| Thilo Vogeler
Specific to Customers:
Kenya Association of Manufacturers/ cyclos (Kenya Plastic Action Plan, 2019)
UNIDO/ German Biogas Association (Biogas Standards in Kenya, 2019)
German Chemical Conglomerate (anonymous, 2018)
Worldbank/ IFC/ COWI (Bioenergy in Keny, 2017)
German Consulting Engineers (Inros Lackner, 2017)
Konrad Adenauer Foundation (Devolution in Kenya, 2016)
German Chemical Conglomerate (Lanxess, 2016)
Energy:
Dezentralized Energy Access in Tanzania (2019)
Renewable Energies in Kenya (2019)
Dezentralized Energy Access in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda (2019)
Energy Efficiency in Industry and Commerce in Tanzania (2018)
Energy Efficiency in Industry and Commerce in Kenya (2018)
Dezentralized Energy Access in Kenya(2016)
Finanzierunginstrumente Subsahara-Afrika (2016)
Water:
Sector Brief Water Sector in Ethiopia (2019)
Market Analysis Water and Sewerage in Kenya (2018)
Short Analysis Water and Sewerage in Kenya (2016)
http://www.kenia.ahk.de/green-economy/target-market-studies/
Competence Center Energy and Environment:
Focus on Market Intelligence
4 | 24. September 2019| Thilo Vogeler
https://www.kenia.ahk.de/green-economy/
Guide to Green Ecoonomy – available online
5 | 24. September 2019| Thilo Vogeler
Installed Capacity 2019: Kenya
818
703
775
55
336
28
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar-PV
Diesel/ HFO
Wind
Biomass
by generation source in MW
installed capacity: 2,715 MW
Turkwel Hydro Power Plant
Olkaria Geothermal Plant
Lake Turkana Wind Park
Source: Own presentation related to Kenya Power (2018): Annual Report 2017/ 2018; additional
Data for Turkana Wind Power and Garissa Solar Power.
6 | 24. September 2019| Thilo Vogeler
Installed Capacity 2019: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda
818
336703
775
5528
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar-PV
Fossil Fuels
Wind
Biomass
573
10
0
00
1.018
103
00
104
012
743
95
0100
040
Source: Own presentation related to publicly available utility data; underlying map: Google Maps
7 | 24. September 2019| Thilo Vogeler
Electricity Generation by source: Kenya
818,0
703,0
775,0
55,0
336,028,0 Hydro
Geothermal
Diesel/ HFO
Solar-PV
Wind
Biomass0
39
44
0
215
installed capacity in MW,
total: 2.715 MW
% of electricity generated
Consumption Jan-Mar 2.825 TWh
peak demand 1.859 MW
January to March 2019 in TWh
fossil fuel consumption has risen in Apr/May; contribution of Solar and Bio Energy insignificant
Source: Own presentation related to Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (2019), Energy and
Petroleum Regulatory Authority (2019).
8 | 24. September 2019| Thilo Vogeler Source: Own presentation related to Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), 2018.
Electricity Generation Expansion Plans until 2021: Kenya
2.6350
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
20212019 20202017 2018
10.462
11.094
13.476
15.56116.770
Wind
Domestic Hydro
Geothermal
Solar-PV
Biomass
Fossil Fuel
Import Hydro
by generation source in GWh
9 | 24. September 2019| Thilo Vogeler
2021 ProjectionsProjected electricity output by source – 99%+ Fossil Free
Source: Own presentation based on 2017 estimates by ERC.
22
16
40
42
16
0
Solar PV
Domestic Hydro
Wind
Geothermal
Biomass
Fossil Fuels
Import (Hydro)
Relevant Policies
Energy Act 2019
Feed-In-Tariff Regulations
Net-Metering
Off-Grid Electrification Initiative
11 | 24. September 2019| Thilo Vogeler
63
93
68
17
18
9
20
27
9
17
9
66
78
49
25
Projects in
PPA Process
Plants Operating
1
1
Projects in FiT-
Process 2018
Projects in FiT-
Process 2016
1
4
1
Projects in
Feasibility
Study Status
167
217
+29,9%
Feed-In-Tariff Regulationsby Number of Projects per Energy Source
Total capacity of projects in pipeline ~4,000 MW
vs. 2,715 total current generation capacity (2019)
Solar PV feed in tariffs are being adjusted towards
international benchmarks at 4-5 ct/ kWh
Small Hydro
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
Solar-PV
Num
ber
of
Pro
jects
Source: Own presentation related to Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), 2018.
12 | 24. September 2019| Thilo Vogeler
Net-MeteringEnergy Act 2019 162 (2)
„Each distribution licensee or retailer shall, upon application, make available
net metering services to any electricity consumer that the licensee serves as
prescribed in regulations“ (< 1 MW).
Not in line with political priorities
Discussions evolve around 0,62-0,65 kWh deduction per kWh fed in
Grid capacity constraints
Source: EPRA (2019), Energy Act 2019
13 | 24. September 2019| Thilo Vogeler
Off-Grid Electrification: Kenyaexisting power distribution network
Key Projects
Kenya National Electrification Strategy (KNES)
Kenya Off-Grid Solar Access Project for
Underserved Counties (KOSAP)
Solar Home Systems, Source: GIZ
Source: Ministry of Energy, Kenya National Electrification Strategy, 2018.
14 | 24. September 2019| Thilo Vogeler
Technology Options for universal Electrificationgrid expansion, solar home systems, island nets
Households (HH) in Kenya – 10.8 Mio.
Within 15 km of the existing Kenya Power grid
- 9.7 million HH
Consumers of Kenya Power
In 2016 KPLC served 5.1 million HH
Network expansion
potential of
269,000 HH
Network
intensification
potential of 2.8
million HH
Solar home systems
700,000 existing consumers - potential of more than 1.96 million HH
Outside the existing Kenya
Power grid
1.1 million HH
New island networks
34,700 HH
Source: Ministry of Energy, Kenya National Electrification Strategy, 2018.
15 | 24. September 2019| Thilo Vogeler
> Focus on Private Offtakers
(Commercial and Industrial)
> Net metering policy/ feed in
regulations not feasible
> Niche opportunities in rural
electrification
> Market increasingly shifting towards
higher quality solutions
> Urgency to act: Regulatory
frameworks for self consumption
may deterioate
Way Forward
Opportunities
> High electricity retail prices
> Ambitious and Succesful Rural
Electrification
> Elaborated Regulatory
Framework
> Competition on Price and
Quality
Challenges
> Overcapacity in the public
grid projected to grow
> Consolidation of EPCs:
“survival of the fittest“
> Sub Standard Products distort
the market
Market Assessment Solar Energy in Kenya
Contact
Thilo Vogeler,
Head of Competence Center Energy & Environment
+254 791 398 159
