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Renewable energy and sustainable energy balances. The growth of renewable energy …. What may renewable energy contribute in 2030? How to integrate renewable energy in electricity systems? How to incentivize renewable energy?. What may renewable energy contribute in 2030?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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17/12/2013
Renewable energy and sustainable energy balances
Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok@kornelisblok
© ECOFYS | |
The growth of renewable energy ….
>What may renewable energy contribute in 2030?
>How to integrate renewable energy in electricity systems?
>How to incentivize renewable energy?
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok2
© ECOFYS | |
What may renewable energy contribute in 2030?
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok3
© ECOFYS | |
Renewable energy: 40% in 2030
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok4
Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU
© ECOFYS | |
Renewable energy by sector
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok5
Buildings
Manufacturing industry
Transport
Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU
© ECOFYS | |
Investments and return-on-investment(energy efficiency + renewable energy)
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok6
Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU
© ECOFYS | |
How to integrate renewable energy in electricity systems?
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok7
© ECOFYS | |
Germany, business-as-used-to-be
11/12/20138 Kees van der Leun
© ECOFYS | |
Germany, the new world (June 2013!)
11/12/20139 Kees van der Leun
© ECOFYS | |
Germany, prices-as-used-to-be
11/12/201310 Kees van der Leun
© ECOFYS | |
Germany, prices in the new world (June 2013!)
11/12/201311 Kees van der Leun
© ECOFYS | |
Flexibility options for power systems
21/04/2312
© ECOFYS | |
The impact of grid constraints
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok13
© ECOFYS | |
Grid constraints and total system costs
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok14
© ECOFYS | |
How to incentivize renewable energy?
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok15
© ECOFYS | | 21/04/23 Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse
Still diversity of support schemes in Europe but with some converging trends
Source: Ecofys based onRagwitz et al. (2012). RE-Shaping Ecofys et al. (2012). RE progress and biofuels sustainability.
© ECOFYS | | 21/04/23 Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse
The MS are currently on track with their 2011/2012 trajectory but projections do not look good for 2020
Source: Ecofys based onEcofys et al. (2012). RE progress and biofuels sustainability.
© ECOFYS | |
Lessons from MS experience tell us how to design effective and efficient RES-E support schemes
21/04/23 Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse
Provide reliable framework: frequent and unexpected policy changes undermine investor confidence
• Policy changes transparent and predictable (e.g. automatic degression, clear formula for quota setting, pre-set revision agenda)
• No retroactive changes• Long term political commitment• Guarantee support level for long term • Consultation with stakeholders
Lessons learnt Best practice design criteria
Reflect and limit investment risks: risk-conscious (triple-A) policies
increase growth and reduce support costs by up to 50%
• Tailor support scheme to RE market deployment status and electricity market readiness
• No abrupt or retroactive policy changes• Avoid rigid budget or capacity caps• Simple, transparent permitting process • Priority grid access and dispatch• Quota: long term horizon and serious penalties• Government facilitates access to capital (e.g.
participation, financial guarantees, loans)
Adjust level of support to technology and market conditions
• Apply technology specific support levels• Calculate level of support based on LCOE, so
support neither too low nor too high• Planned and transparent adjustments based on
technology and market changes
© ECOFYS | |
Thank you!
Prof. dr. Kornelis BlokDirector of Science
EcofysKanaalweg 15-G3526 KL Utrecht
Phone: 030-6623399 E-mail: [email protected]: @kornelisblok
www.ecofys.com
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok19
© ECOFYS | |
sustainable energy
for everyone
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok20
© ECOFYS | |
Back-up slides
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok21
© ECOFYS | |
Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok22
IPCC 2011, Special Report Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation
© ECOFYS | | 11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok23
IPCC 2011, Special Report Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation
© ECOFYS | |
CO2 emissions from fossil and renewable sources
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok24
Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU