Upload
bpfanpage
View
762
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Citation preview
Renewable EnergyPolicy Framework
Darrel Thorson, Vice President, Thermal DevelopmentBP Alternative Energy
2
Why is BP in Alternative Energy?
China built 100 GW of coal fired generation in 2007
China continues massive coal buildout.
•China installed 95 GW in 2006•US installed capacity is 1000 GW•By 2009, China will be the largest emitter of CO2 on the planet, surpassing the US (CERA, 2007)
3
65% of power plants needed around the world in 2030 are yet to be built
Power Generation by Technology & Global Power CO2 Emissions
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
06 Projected Global Power CO2 Emissions
2005 2010 2020 2030
20
0
20
0
10
BtpaCO2
000 TWh
As a result, CO2 emissions are expected to double by 2030
4
Significant synergies between the climate change and energy security agenda
Three key takeaways;
• 50% of the climate opportunities support energy security.
• Further 45% is neutral when it comes to energy security
• Only 5% of climate initiatives do not benefit energy security.
Good
Bad
5
Power plant carbon intensity by type
6
Policies to stimulate investment
• Regulatory
• Transmission
• Fiscal Incentives
• Communication/Educational Initiatives
7
Incentives can accelerate maturity
R&D
Demo.
Commercialisation
Capital-based
Production-based (MWh)
TRANSITIONAL INCENTIVES
CARBON PRICING (CO2 tonnes)
Time
+ trading
Grants, inv taxcredits
production tax credit
Cap-and-trade programs, carbon taxes
H2 power with CCS
Solar PV
Onshore wind
Gas power
Tech Cost
Offshore wind
Deployment
Solar nano
CST
8
Regulatory Policy Priorities
• Enduring carbon pricing policies:
• Cap and trade in US
• State RPS targets with enforceability
• A federal RPS in the US
• Could result in 300 GW of wind by 2030
• Favorable siting policies for technologies with large land needs
• Wind (20 acres / MW – dual use)
• CST (5 acres / MW – single use)
9
Coal reserves
Wind resources
Load centers
Transmission Policy Priorities
National Interest Corridors, State Transmission Incentives
10
Fiscal/Transitional Policy Priorities• Grants/Tax Credits for Research and Development to both the private
and public sectors.
• Develop enduring carbon pricing policies:
• Cap and trade in US
• Stability and predictability in fiscal incentives
• Avoid “stop-go” syndrome
• Further tailoring of incentives to technologies
• Production-based where scaling up is the priority (eg. Wind)
• Performance-based where cost reduction, technological advance is priority (eg PV solar, Concentrated Solar, Biofuels)
• Early-mover demonstration programmes for hydrogen power / CCS
11
Communication/Education Initiatives• Provide incentives to states to include renewable energy studies in the
educational curriculum at every level
• Promote private/public sector participation in renewable energy.
• Increase funding to the National Renewal Energy Laboratory (NREL).
• Increase public awareness of the benefits of renewable energy (and the hidden costs of conventional energy).
12
• Encourage new conversion technologies and advanced molecules – by moving beyond feedstocks and vehicle emissions and avoiding fuel-specific targets and fixed per-gallon mandates
• Create incentives or obligations based on emission reduction or energy content rather than volume basis
• Encourage sustainable and responsible production routes
FeedstockFeedstock
ProductionProduction
ConversionConversion
PrimaryPrimary
TransportTransport
Storage Storage &&
BlendingBlending
SecondarySecondary
TransportTransport
RetailRetail End UseEnd Use
Bio-fuels Policy: Target ends, not means.Allow markets to pick winners. Encourage sustainable practice.
13
Back-up slides
14
WindExperiencing Explosive Growth
The world saw 32% growth in wind capacity in 2006 • US added 2500 MW in 2006; 3000 MW in 2007• US/Canada will triple capacity to 30,000 MW by 2010
Source: (GWEC, 2007)
15
Photovoltaic Solar PowerCurrently• BP is a leading solar manufacturing and marketing company• We have manufacturing capacity of 200 MW with facilities in Bangalore, Madrid,
Frederick, Xian and Sydney• We have 30 year’s experience, 20 offices, over 2000 employees and installations in
160 countries
Our commitment• We are increasing our overall global manufacturing capacity to 700 MW • We are investing $97m to increase our casting and wafering capacity at our Frederick
plant in the USA
Silicon activities• Signed significant supply contract for 2007• Extensive investigation in alternative silicon sources:
– Provides opportunity for significant cost reduction over traditional sources– Scalable and in line with future growth requirements
• Continued development of our advanced Mono² and commercialization:– Mono² efficiencies with multi cost and processing advantages
16
Concentrated Solar Thermal Power
Concentrated Solar Thermal (CST) power generation produces electricity by concentrating the sun’s energy to produce steam and drive a turbine.
Context - SW US has 6,800 GW of potential vs 1,000 GW in entire US
Policy – Positive climate in the US but need more sustained incentives.
Infrastructure – Need transmission!
17
18
Gas-fired power
CurrentlyWe participate in 12GW of gas-fired power plants (the size of a mid-sized US utility).We have successfully developed five new power plants in the past five years in the US, UK, Vietnam, South Korea and Spain.Our 1075 megawatt K Power CCGT in South Korea is the most efficient gas power plant in Korea.We broke ground at a 250 MW Texas City Steam Turbine project in 2006 that will take our Texas City facility to 1000 MW when complete.
Our commitmentWe will continue to look for high value opportunities to monetize our equity gas positions and build cogeneration facilities at existing BP facilities.
19
Next generation biofuels
woody crops
Ethanol / butanol / ? for gasoline
Oily crops eg jatropha for dieseloil crops
•Next-generation bio-components can provide higher energy content and GHG reductions •Energy content: • Corn yields 240 gallons an acre; sugarcane 440 gallons per acre• Sunflower yields 75 gallons per acre; jatropha 140-220 gallons per acre; palm oil 450 gallons per acre• Opportunities to explore woody crops – straw, residues etc • Ligno-cellulosic conversion offers prospect of using entire plant – up to 1200 gal/acre
•GHG benefits:• Biofuels can offer GHG emissions reductions of 20% to 90%, depending on feedstock and conversion
process• Goal should be in upper end of range through high energy feedstock, less intensive cultivation crops,
low carbon conversion processes
20
Increasing suite of low carbon options are available and affordable
Combined Effect of Lower Cost of New Technologies and CO2 Emissions Price by 2030
Source: IEA Technology Perspectives 2006, IEA World Energy Outlook 2006, BAH analysisNote: All data from lower bound of sources’ reported ranges. Coal and gas power price varies due to fuel prices, predicted range shown on chart. No coal CCS plants currently in operation; earliest operational plant in 2010. All costs are for wholesale generation.
21
Policies and investments - biofuels
US – BP Energy Biosciences Institute - $500m over 10 years
US – Renewables Fuels StandardsEU – biofuels penetration target of 10% for 2020BP blended 800m gallons of ethanol in 2006
UK – Bioethanol plant with ABF; Demonstration biobutanol plant with DuPont
Joint venture with D1 Oils to plant jatrophaIn Asia, Africa and India
Australia – plans to market 400m litres of biofuels per annumProject to make biofuels from tallow at Bulwer refinery
22
Principles for transitional incentives
• Goal: “accelerate the deployment of low-carbon power technologies”
• Policy understood to be ‘transitional’ – eventually phased down and replaced with a carbon-based measure, however:
• policy is governed by long (i.e. 5-10 year) regulatory periods
• both the timescales and ‘ramping down mechanism’ are clearly understood upfront
• Policy based around a market mechanism, e.g. tradable certificate system – to seek out lowest-cost solutions and to allow business to optimise across a wider playing field
• Policy provides encouragement tailored to each technology without ‘picking winners’ for favored treatment