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Religare Morning Digest
February 8, 2017
Nifty Outlook
VWAP (Expiry till date) Max OI (Call) Max OI (Put)
NIFTY 8625 9000 8500
Markets took a breather today and settled marginally lower as traders preferred to book some profit ahead of the RBI's meet. Besides, feeble global cues and weakness in rupee was also weighing on the sentiments. In line with benchmark, mostly sectoral indices ended lower, reflecting cautious view ahead of the event.
Market is going into the event with mixed consensus; however, chance of status quo seems high, considering the present liquidity situation in the economy and rise in the crude oil price. Amidst all, we're bullish on markets and suggest maintaining buy on dips approach in stocks. Nifty, on the other hand, is expected to consolidate around the current level prior to further up move.
Sectors to watch
Sector Name Outlook
ENERGY STABLE
METALS STABLE
MEDIA STABLE
News
Religare Super Ideas**
FII & DII Cash Segment (Rs. in Cr.) Trade Stats
Category Amt. MTD YTD
FII -404 152 13817
DII 450 1430 35253
NO OF CON-
TRACTS
TURNOVER IN CR
IDXFUTS 151437 10951
IDXOPT 2531475 186880
STKFUTS 642191 46305
Derivative Ideas **
PNB reported a four-fold increase in Net Profit to Rs. 207.2 Cr in Q3 against Rs. 51 Cr in the corresponding quarter last year. Net Interest Income fell by 9.4% to Rs. 3,730.8 Cr as against Rs. 4,119.6 Cr in the corresponding quarter last year. Asset quality was stable as Gross NPA increased sequentially to 13.7% against 13.63% previously, and Net NPA fell to 9.09% in Q3 from 9.1%. Shares closed up 1.6%.
BHEL reported a Net Profit of Rs. 93.5 Cr in Q3 against a loss of Rs. 1,085 Cr in the corresponding quarter last year. Revenue increased 18.7% to Rs. 6,325.4 Cr against Rs. 5,327.2 Cr in the corresponding quarter last year. Both segments - Power and Industry, reported healthy revenue growth of 18.2% and 20.4% respectively.
IDBI Bank reported widening of losses to Rs. 2,255 Cr in Q3 as compared to loss of Rs. 2,184.7 Cr in the corresponding quarter last year. Net Interest Income fell sharply by 45.3% to Rs. 850.4 Cr from Rs. 1,555 Cr in the corresponding quarter last year. Asset quality worsened further as Gross NPA increased sequentially to 15.16% from 13.05%. Net NPA increased to 9.61% as compared to 8.32% previously. Shares closed down 2.2%.
*FII & DII data as on 6th February 2017
Scrip Buy/Sell CMP Initiation
Range SL* Target
BAJAJ-AUTO BUY 2769.80 2760-
2790 2700 3000
PIDILITIND BUY 673.70 670-675 650 730
**Please note that the given technical and derivative recommendations are
"valid for taking position" only on recommended date and in the given range.
*Please note - Stoploss is on closing basis for delivery recommendation and intraday basis for futures recommendation.
Instrument B/S Lot INITIATION
RANGE SL
TAR-GET
BANKNIFTY9
FEB 20700CE
&20000 PE
B 40 60-65 42 100
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Religare Morning Digest
February 8, 2017
Religare Super Ideas
Investment Pick - Wonderla Holidays Ltd.
Wonderla Holidays Ltd surprised the street by reporting 39% yoy growth in sales amidst demonetisation woes. EBITDA and PAT declined by 28% yoy and 66% yoy
respectively, led by higher operating expenses on account of newly opened Hyderabad park and increase in advertising and marketing expenses.
Wonderla Holidays Ltd., with its 3 amusement parks at Kochi, Bengaluru and Hyderabad, is the bellwether of India's amusement park industry. The company also
owns a resort in Bengaluru. Wonderla's well planned expansion plan, deleveraged balance sheet, higher margins than the industry and owned ride manufacturing plant at Kochi gives an added advantage over its peers.
Scrip CMP Target Duration Recommendation Price
WONDERLA 379.75 430 9-12 Months 380
BANK Nifty has seeing a mix of long and short
positions since last 3 days,majorly longs.The
support for Bank nifty is seen at 19900 and 20700
respectively. We expect a surge in option
premium post the event.
Strategy: BUY 9 feb 20000 pe@30-32 and buy
20700ce@30-32,net prem at 60-65,stoploss at
42,target 100.
Derivative Ideas
Bajaj Auto Limited (BAJAJ-AUTO) Pidilite Industries Limited (PIDILITIND)
BAJAJ-AUTO has retraced 38.2% of the rise 2510-
2918, this level is considered support as per
Fibonacci theory. Further, it has also re-tested the
neckline of the support zone around 2760, creating
opportunities to re-enter. Hence we believe that
traders should not miss this opportunity and
accumulate in the mentioned range.
PIDILITIND after registering a breakout from
“Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on 24th Jan,
has taken a pause, this is a healthy sign and an
opportunity for fresh entry. Hence, traders should
use this phase to accumulate in the given range.
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Religare Morning Digest
February 8, 2017
Religare Investment Calls
Name of the Company Reco Date Reco Price Target Price Upside % Previous day Closing Price
Tech Mahindra 7-Aug-15 534 600 12.4% 470.9
Kotak Mahindra Bank 19-Aug-15 688 900 30.8% 773.4
Glenmark Pharma 10-Sep-15 1,017 1,370 34.7% 959.4
Dabur India 10-Sep-15 275 325 18.1% 266.9
HUL 10-Sep-15 803 1,050 30.8% 855.3
Bajaj Corp 3-Nov-15 416 500 20.3% 375.5
Britannia Inds 23-Dec-15 2,896 3,600 24.3% 3230.6
Nandan Denim 5-Jan-16 150 183 22.0% 126.3
Atul Auto 22-Mar-16 506 580 14.6% 426.0
Century Plyboards 5-Jul-16 207 271 30.9% 215.5
Talwalkars Better Valkue Fitness 22-Aug-16 252 328 30.2% 227.0
Tv Today Network 29-Aug-16 300 388 29.3% 272.4
Jamna Auto 2-Sep-16 217 272 25.3% 194.0
SML Isuzu 26-Sep-16 1,300 1,560 20.0% 1237.9
Cigniti Technologies Ltd. 5-Oct-16 419 538 28.3% 443.4
Arman Financial Services 14-Oct-16 260 338 30.0% 232.7
Garware Wall Ropes Ltd. 23-Nov-16 567 686 21.0% 626.8
Indo Count Industries Ltd. 30-Nov-16 155 207 33.5% 184.3
VIP Industries Ltd. 30-Nov-16 118 166 41.0% 135.5
Minda Corporation 06-Dec-16 95 117 23.2% 90.4
Credit Analysis and Research 23-Dec-16 1,355 1,694 25.0% 1389.7
Fiem Industries 26-Dec-16 1,089 1,315 20.8% 1075.3
Castrol India 26-Dec-16 358 483 34.9% 415.5
Jain Irrigation Systems 26-Dec-16 82 104 26.8% 95.5
Sutlej Textiles 12-Jan-17 812 1,032 27.1% 931.2
LIC Housing Finance 25-Jan-17 526 667 27.0% 555.0
Force Motors 25-Jan-17 4,274 5,210 21.9% 4235.6
Zee Entertainment Enterprises 27-Jan-17 498 592 18.8% 502.3
Swaraj Engines Ltd. 31-Jan-17 1,406 1,736 23.5% 1401.9
Greenply Industries 3-Feb-17 268 304 13.4% 288.8
Manpasand Beverages 7-Feb-17 681 854 25.4% 689.7
Wonderla Holidays 7-Feb-17 380 430 13.1% 379.8
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Religare Morning Digest
February 8, 2017
Result Calendar — February 2017
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
05 06
AARTI INDUSTRIES LTD.
KRITI INDUSTRIES (INDIA) LTD.-$
PIONEER DISTILLERIES LTD.
PREMIER LTD.
Shemaroo Entertainment Ltd
TAMILNADU STEEL TUBES LTD.
TRADE WINGS LTD.
TUBE INVESTMENTS OF INDIA LTD.
TITAGARH WAGONS LTD.
UMANG DAIRIES LTD.
UPPER GANGES SUGAR & INDUS-TRIES LTD.
USHA MARTIN LTD.
VATSA CORPORATIONS LTD.
V.B.DESAI FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD.
V.S.T.TILLERS TRACTORS LTD.-$
WEP SOLUTIONS LTD.
WINSOME TEXTILE INDUSTRIES LTD.-$
WESTERN MINISTIL LTD.
WEST COAST PAPER MILLS LTD.
ZEN TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
SWASTIK SAFE DEPOSIT & INVEST-MENTS LTD.
07
BAYER CROPSCIENCE LTD.
BHARAT HEAVY ELECTRICALS LTD.
BLUE DART EXPRESS LTD.
CEAT LTD.
CERA SANITARYWARE LTD.
Future Retail Ltd
GATI LTD.
GILLETTE INDIA LTD.
Greenlam Industries Ltd
JUBILANT LIFE SCIENCES LIM-ITED
Mudra Financial Services Ltd
NHPC LTD.
RAMCO INDUSTRIES LTD.
TATA STEEL LTD.
Titan Company Limited
UNITED BANK OF INDIA
Vaibhav Global Ltd
VISION CORPORATION LTD.
WALLFORT FINANCIAL SER-VICES LTD.
WPIL LTD.
HINDUSTHAN UDYOG LTD.
08
AARTI DRUGS LTD.
APCOTEX INDUSTRIES LTD.
Apunka Invest Commercial Ltd
BHARAT FORGE LTD.
CIPLA LTD.
Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd
CITY UNION BANK LTD.
Dilip Buildcon Ltd
Halder Venture Ltd
KESORAM INDUSTRIES LTD.
MANAPPURAM FI-NANCE LTD.
NTPC LTD.
SHRIRAM EPC LTD.
SIEMENS LTD.
09
ANDHRA BANK
BATA INDIA LTD.
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD.
CAIRN INDIA LTD.
Edelweiss Financial Ser-vices Ltd.
ESCORTS LTD.
HEIDELBERGCEMENT IN-DIA LTD.
HEXA TRADEX LTD.
LUPIN LTD.
MAGMA FINCORP LTD.
MANAPPURAM FINANCE LTD.
MANUGRAPH INDIA LTD.-$
NCC Limited
Nandan Denim Limited
RELIGARE ENTERPRISES LTD.
SKIL Infrastructure Ltd
SUTLEJ TEXTILES & IN-DUSTRIES LTD.
Talwalkars Better Value Fitness Ltd
TORRENT POWER LTD.
TV TODAY NETWORK LTD.
10
Anjani Foods Ltd
BEML LTD.
BERGER PAINTS INDIA LTD.
CESC LTD.
CROMPTON GREAVES LTD.
ENGINEERS INDIA LTD.
GAIL (INDIA) LTD.
Kwality Limited
STATE BANK OF INDIA
SML ISUZU LIMITED
SRF LTD.
TATA POWER CO.LTD.
ZENITH HEALTH CARE LTD.
HEM HOLDINGS & TRAD-ING LTD.
PARICHAY INVESTMENTS LTD.
PLANTER POLYSACKS LTD.
SOUTHERN GAS LTD.
11
Blue Pearl Texspin Limited
COAL INDIA LTD.
INDO COUNT INDUSTRIES LTD.
Linde India Limited
MCDOWELL HOLDINGS LTD.
N.K.INDUSTRIES LTD.
UFLEX LTD.
ULTRAMARINE & PIG-MENTS LTD.-$
UNITED CREDIT LTD.
UNIROYAL MARINE EX-PORTS LTD.
USHAKIRAN FINANCE LTD.
UTTAM VALUE STEELS LTD.
VIJAY SHANTHI BUILDERS LTD.
VIMTA LABS LTD.-$
VA TECH WABAG LTD.
W.H.BRADY & CO.LTD.
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Religare Morning Digest
February 8, 2017
Corporate Action Calendar — February 2017 (Cash Dividend)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
05 06
Godrej Consumer Prod-ucts Ltd
Cholamandalam Invest-ment and Finance Co Ltd
Shree Cement Ltd
07
TCI Express Ltd
Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd
Wendt India Ltd
Advani Hotels & Resorts India Ltd
Kewal Kiran Clothing Ltd
India Motor Parts and Accesso-ries Ltd
Granules India Ltd
08
Suven Life Sciences Ltd
Thyrocare Technologies Ltd
Alankit Ltd
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
09
Transport Corp of India Ltd
Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd
Sharda Motor Industries Ltd
Marico Ltd
Aegis Logistics Ltd
KP Energy Ltd
GHCL Ltd
Indian Oil Corp Ltd
Genus Power Infrastructures Ltd
Cummins India Ltd
10
Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd
Mayur Uniquoters Ltd
11
Corporate Action Calendar — February 2017 (Stock Buyback)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
05 06 07
Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd
08 09 10 11
Corporate Action Calendar — February 2017 (Stock Split)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
05 06 07
LT Foods Ltd
08 09 10
Gayatri Projects Ltd
11
Economic Calendar — February 2017
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
05 06 07 08
RBI Repurchase Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
09
Local Car Sales
10
Industrial Production YoY
Trade Balance
Exports YoY
Imports YoY
11
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Religare Morning Digest
February 8, 2017
Current Portfolio and Performance Summary as on 7th February’17
Stock Sector Entry Date Weight Reco price (`) CMP (`)
Bajaj Corp Consumer Goods May 13, 2016 8.7% 393 375
Magma Fincorp Financial Services June 30, 2016 8.9% 109 103
Apollo Hospitals
Enterprises Healthcare Services July 29, 2016 9.2% 1,362 1,257
Emami Consumer Goods August 3, 2016 9.7% 1,151 1,111
Castrol India Energy August 5, 2016 9.8% 425 416
Punjab National Bank Financial Services October 3, 2016 10.8% 143 152
Minda Corporation Auto Ancillaries October 10, 2016 8.8% 109 90
CRISIL Financial Services February 2, 2017 10.2% 2,000 2,076
Sml Isuzu Auto February 6, 2017 9.8% 1,265 1,238
Cash 14.2%
Total Total 100%
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Religare Morning Digest
February 8, 2017
Historical Performance as on 7th February’17
Performance Matrix 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year Since Inception
Religare Alpha 8.6% -0.7% 1.8% 18.0% 27.8%
Nifty 6.4% 3.2% 2.3% 18.7% 11.2%
Outperformance 2.2% -3.9% -0.5% -0.7% 16.5%
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Religare Morning Digest
February 8, 2017
Research Product Basket
For cash market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Intraday Calls Intraday 2 - 3 < 1 day 25%
Live / RMD Calls Daily 3 - 4 3 - 4 days 30%
Master Pick Weekly 1 1 month 15%
Religare Alpha Opportunity NA 2 - 3 months 20%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
25,000 8,000
30,000 4,000
15,000 5,000
20,000 As per weightage
10,000
Intraday Calls These calls are flashed live on Ms Lync and ODIN with the purpose of squaring off positions on the same day. As a policy, we restrict our
intraday cash market calls to less than 4 calls a day. Hence, funds should be allocated accordingly to have provision to trade in all calls.
Live / RMD Calls 2 super ideas are flashed in RMD daily with a view of 3-4 days. Additionally as per market opportunity, we flash live calls during the day
(including BTST calls). 3-4 such calls are made on a daily basis which might be open for 3-4 days. Funds should be allocated keeping in mind that
there will be 7-8 such open calls daily.
Master Pick This is our weekly recommendation shortlisted on the basis of techno-funda analysis. 15% of funds is recommended to be allocated for Master
Pick considering that there will be 3 open calls. The average open duration for this call will be 1 month.
Religare Alpha This is a portfolio of 8-10 stocks which are held with a view of 2-3 months. It is recommended to allocate 20% of funds for building this portfolio
which will provide stability to the overall trading portfolio.
Cash 10% surplus cash in the portfolio should be kept for the purposes of allocating it to opportunities as and when they arrive.
For derivative market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Derivative Ideas Daily 1 - 2 1 - 3 days 40%
Live calls Intraday / Daily 1 - 2 3 - 4 days 50%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
40,000 40,000
50,000 50,000
10,000
Derivative Ideas 1 derivative idea is shared in RMD daily. It can be a plain vanilla F&O buy/sell call or an option strategy. Funds should be allocated assuming 2
such calls will be open at any time. These calls are open for 3-4 days on an average.
Live Calls These calls are flashed on MS Lync and ODIN during live market hours. These calls can be intraday or with a view of 2-3 days. Funds should be
allocated considering 2 such calls will be open at any time. 3/4 times, these calls will be on Nifty / Bank Nifty only.
Cash It is recommended to hold 10% cash to capitalize on any opportunity that may arise in markets.
For every client, the advisor must allocate a specific proportion of funds for trading and investing depending on the risk taking ability and willingness of the client
and their investment goals.
The below mentioned product basket tries to address the way to deal with the trading portfolio (cash/derivative) for optimum effectiveness of research calls.
It is recommended to divide your trading funds for various types of calls and not invest the entire amount for 1 or 2 calls only.
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Religare Morning Digest
February 8, 2017
Hitesh Agrawal [email protected]
Ajay Pasari, CFA [email protected]
Ajit Mishra [email protected]
Archana Gude [email protected]
Gaurav Sharma [email protected]
Swati Saxena [email protected]
Manoj M Vayalar [email protected]
Mehernosh Khurshed Panthaki [email protected]
Siji A Philip [email protected]
Vipin Kumar [email protected]
Team Members
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Religare Morning Digest
February 8, 2017
Before you use this research report , please ensure to go through the disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 and Research Disclaimer at the following link : http://old.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_RSL.html
Specific analyst(s) specific disclosure(s) inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 is/are as under:
Statements on ownership and material conflicts of interest , compensation– Research Analyst (RA)
[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs, if in the event answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) below , are given separately]
Nature of Interest ( if answer to F (a) above is Yes : ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Name(s) with Signature(s) of RA(s).
[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs and if the answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) above , are given below]
Copyright in this document vests exclusively with RSL. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any
other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without prior written permission from RSL. We do not guarantee the integrity of any emails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person.
S. No. Statement Answer
Yes No
I/we or any of my/our relative has any financial interest in the subject company? [If answer is yes, nature of Interest is given below this table] No
I/we or any of my/our relatives, have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent. or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public appearance?
No
I/we or any of my/our relative, has any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance?
No
I/we have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for products or services other than brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report? No
I/we have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company? No
I/we have been engaged in market making activity for the subject company? No
SS..No. Name(s) of RA.
Signtures of RA
Serial Question of question which the signing RA needs to make a separate declaration / answer
Yes No.
