Upload
others
View
5
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity
Diego RestucciaUniversity of Toronto
and NBER
University of OsloAugust 14-18, 2017
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 1 / 37
Overview
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 2 / 37
Relative prices and sectoral productivity
Basic facts
Heterogeneity in services
Structural transformation within services
Productivity implications
Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 3 / 37
Based on Duarte and Restuccia (2016):https://ideas.repec.org/p/tor/tecipa/tecipa-555.html
Aggregate labor productivity differences across countries are large
Sectoral analysis of labor productivity differences is important tounderstand aggregate outcomes
No systematic real sectoral output data across countries
Standard approach uses sectoral price and expenditure data (theinputs of PWT) to infer sectoral productivity
Motivation
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 4 / 37
Well-known fact: relative price of services rises with development
Standard interpretation: cross-country differences in productivityare larger in manufacturing than in services, e.g.:
Balassa-Samuelson,Kravis, Heston, and Summers (1983),Hsieh and Klenow (2007),Herrendorf and Valentinyi (2012)
These productivity implications are important as the servicesector becomes large with structural change
Limitations of Standard Approach
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 5 / 37
Heterogeneity within services; in particular, not all services havean increasing relative price
“The service sector happens to contain some of the economy’smost progressive activities as well as its most stagnant.” (Baumolet al, AER, 1985)
Expenditure differs from output
“... the price parities computed from these surveys [ICP] are notsatisfactory for making sectoral productivity comparisons.”(Heston and Summers, AER, 1996)
Plan
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 6 / 37
Address these two limitations, by
disaggregating services—between those with a falling relative price(non-traditional) and those with an increasing relative price(traditional)
developing a framework with an input-output structure that mapsrelative expenditure prices to value added sectoral productivity
Data
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 7 / 37
International Comparisons Program (ICP)
Disaggregated data for 2005
pricesnominal expendituresreal expenditures (real = when measured at common internationalprices)
129 categories / 130 countries
World Input-Output Database (WIOD)
Harmonized input-output tables for 40 countries, 35 by 35industries.
Annual tables from 1995 to 2009, at current prices.
Facts
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 8 / 37
The price of services relative to that of GDP increases withincome
The (nominal) share of services in GDP increases with income
The real share of services does not vary systematically withincome (real = when measured at common international prices)
Relative Price of Services
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
AGOALB
ARG
ARM
AUSAUT
AZE
BDI
BEL
BENBFA
BGD
BGR
BIH
BLR
BOL
BRA
BWA
CAF
CAN
CHE
CHL
CHNCIV
CMR
COG
COLCZE
DEUDNK
ECU
EGY
ESP
EST
ETH
FINFRA
GAB
GBR
GEO
GHAGIN
GMB
GNB
GNQ
GRC
HKG
HUNIDN
IND
IRL
IRN
IRQ
ISRITAJOR
JPN
KAZ
KEN
KGZ
KHM
KOR
KWT
LAO
LBN
LBR
LKALSO
LTULVA
MAR
MDA
MDG
MEX
MKD
MLIMNG
MOZ
MRT
MUSMWI
MYS
NAM
NER
NGA
NLD
NOR
NPLNZL
OMN
PAK
PERPHLPOL
PRT
PRY ROM
RUS
RWA
SAU
SDN
SEN
SGP
SLE
SRBSVK
SVN
SWE
SWZ
SYR
TCD
TGO
THA
TJK
TUNTUR
TWN
TZAUGA
UKR
URY
USA
VEN
VNM
YEM
ZAF
ZAR
ZMB
ZWE
Rel
ativ
e Pr
ice
of S
ervi
ces
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log)
Correlation: 0.67
The relative price of services increases with income
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 9 / 37
Share of Services
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
AGO
ALB
ARG
ARM
AUSAUT
AZE
BDI
BEL
BENBFA
BGD
BGRBIH
BLR
BOL
BRA
BWA
CAF
CANCHE
CHL
CHNCIV
CMR COG
COLCZE
DEU
DNK
ECUEGY
ESP
EST
ETH
FIN
FRA
GAB
GBR
GEO
GHAGIN
GMB
GNB
GNQ
GRC
HKGHUN
IDNIND
IRL
IRN
IRQ
ISR
ITAJOR
JPN
KAZ
KEN
KGZKHM
KOR
KWT
LAO
LBN
LBR
LKA
LSO
LTU
LVAMAR
MDAMDG
MEX
MKD
MLI
MNGMOZ
MRT
MUS
MWI
MYS
NAM
NER
NGA
NLD
NOR
NPL
NZL
OMN
PAK
PER
PHL
POL
PRT
PRY
ROM
RUSRWA SAU
SDN
SEN
SGPSLE
SRB
SVKSVN
SWE
SWZSYR
TCD
TGO THA
TJK
TUNTUR
TWN
TZA
UGA
UKR
URY
USA
VEN
VNMYEM
ZAF
ZAR
ZMB
ZWE
Shar
e of
Ser
vice
s (d
omes
tic p
rices
)
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log)
Correlation: 0.60
The share of services in GDP increases with income
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 10 / 37
Real Share of Services
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AGO
ALB
ARG
ARM
AUSAUTAZE
BDI
BELBENBFA
BGD
BGR
BIHBLR
BOL
BRA
BWA
CAF
CANCHECHL
CHN
CIV CMR
COGCOL CZE
DEUDNKECU
EGY
ESPEST
ETH FINFRA
GAB
GBR
GEO
GHA
GIN
GMB
GNB
GNQ
GRC
HKG
HUN
IDNIND
IRL
IRNIRQ ISR
ITAJORJPN
KAZKEN
KGZ
KHM
KOR
KWT
LAOLBN
LBR
LKA
LSO
LTULVA
MAR
MDA
MDGMEX
MKDMLI
MNGMOZ MRT
MUSMWI
MYS
NAM
NER NGA
NLD
NOR
NPL
NZL
OMN
PAKPER
PHL
POL
PRTPRY
ROM
RUS
RWA
SAUSDN
SENSGP
SLE
SRBSVK
SVN
SWESWZ
SYR
TCD
TGOTHA
TJK
TUNTUR
TWN
TZA
UGA
UKR
URY USAVENVNM
YEM
ZAF
ZAR
ZMB
ZWE
Real
Sha
re o
f Ser
vices
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log)
Correlation: −0.06
The real share does not vary systematically with income
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 11 / 37
Heterogeneity in the Service SectorCross-Country Income Elasticity of Relative Prices
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 12 / 37
Elasticity Standard ErrorPersonal Consumption Expenditures
Clothing and FootwearCleaning and repair of clothing -0.02 0.03Repair and hire of footwear 0.08 0.03
Housing and WaterActual and imputed rentals for housing 0.21 0.05Maintenance and repair of the dwelling -0.15 0.04Water supply -0.21 0.06Miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling -0.18 0.04
Furnishings, Household Equipment, andRoutine Maintenance of the House
Repair of furniture, furnishings and floor coverings -0.16 0.04Repair of household appliances -0.19 0.03Domestic services 0.40 0.04Household services -0.14 0.02
HealthMedical services 0.28 0.04Dental services 0.23 0.04Paramedical services 0.14 0.05Hospital services 0.18 0.03
TransportMaintenance and repair of personal transport equipment -0.12 0.03Other services in respect of personal transport equipment -0.17 0.03Passenger transport by railway -0.10 0.04Passenger transport by road -0.08 0.03Passenger transport by air -0.59 0.04Passenger transport by sea and inland waterway -0.28 0.02Combined passenger transport -0.20 0.03Other purchased transport services -0.15 0.03
Heterogeneity in the Service SectorCross-Country Income Elasticity of Relative Prices
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 13 / 37
Elasticity Standard ErrorCommunication
Postal services -0.15 0.04Telephone and telefax services -0.36 0.03
Recreation and CultureRepair of audio-visual and other equipment -0.08 0.04Veterinary and other services for pets -0.14 0.02Recreational and sporting services 0.07 0.04Cultural services -0.02 0.02Games of chance -0.13 0.02Package holidays -0.06 0.03
Education 0.22 0.04Restaurants and Hotels
Catering services -0.10 0.02Accommodation services -0.24 0.03
Miscellaneous Goods and ServicesHairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments 0.24 0.03Prostitution 0.26 0.04Social protection -0.10 0.02Insurance -0.14 0.01Financial intermediation services indirectly measured -0.14 0.02Other financial services n.e.c. -0.14 0.03Other services n.e.c. -0.13 0.02
Government 0.20 0.03Production of Health Services 0.20 0.04Education 0.28 0.04Collective Services 0.18 0.03
Heterogeneity in the Service Sector
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 14 / 37
We divide services into two categories: traditional andnon-traditional services
Traditional services includes service categories for which therelative price increases with income (government and, frompersonal consumption expenditures, rents for housing, healthservices, and education services)
Non-traditional services includes the service categories in personalconsumption expenditures for which the relative price declineswith income (transportation, communication, financial and relatedservices)
Relative Prices
Traditional Non-Traditional
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
AGO ALB
ARG
ARM
AUSAUT
AZE
BDI
BEL
BEN
BFA
BGD
BGR
BIH
BLRBOL
BRA
BWA
CAF
CAN
CHE
CHL
CHNCIV
CMR
COG
COL CZE
DEU
DNK
ECU
EGY
ESP
EST
ETH
FINFRA
GAB
GBR
GEO
GHAGIN
GMB
GNB
GNQ
GRC
HKG
HUNIDN
IND
IRL
IRN
IRQ
ISR
ITA
JOR
JPN
KAZKEN
KGZKHM
KOR
KWT
LAO
LBN
LBR
LKALSO
LTU
LVA
MAR
MDAMDG
MEX
MKD
MLIMNG
MOZ
MRT
MUS
MWI
MYSNAM
NER
NGA
NLDNOR
NPL
NZLOMN
PAK
PERPHL POL
PRT
PRY
ROM
RUSRWA
SAU
SDN
SEN
SGP
SLE
SRB
SVK
SVN
SWE
SWZ
SYR
TCD
TGO
THA
TJK
TUNTUR
TWN
TZA UGA
UKR
URY
USA
VEN
VNM
YEM
ZAF
ZAR
ZMB
ZWE
Rela
tive P
rice o
f T
raditio
nal S
erv
ices
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log)5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
AGO
ALBARGARM AUSAUT
AZE
BDI
BEL
BENBFABGD
BGRBIH
BLR
BOL BRA
BWA
CAF
CANCHE
CHLCHNCIV CMRCOG
COLCZE
DEUDNKECUEGY
ESPESTETH
FINFRA
GAB
GBRGEO
GHAGIN
GMB
GNB
GNQ
GRCHKG
HUNIDN
INDIRL
IRN
IRQISRITA
JOR
JPNKAZ
KEN
KGZ
KHM
KOR KWTLAO
LBN
LBR
LKA
LSO
LTULVAMAR
MDA
MDG
MEXMKD
MLI
MNG
MOZ
MRT
MUS
MWI
MYS
NAM
NERNGA
NLDNOR
NPL
NZLOMN
PAK
PER
PHL
POLPRT
PRY
ROM
RUS
RWA
SAUSDN
SEN
SGP
SLE
SRB
SVKSVN SWE
SWZ
SYR
TCD
TGO
THA
TJK
TUNTUR
TWN
TZA
UGA
UKR
URY
USAVEN
VNM
YEMZAF
ZAR
ZMB
ZWE
Rela
tive P
rice o
f N
on−
Tra
ditio
nal S
erv
ices
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log)
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 15 / 37
Real Share of Non-traditional Services
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
AGO
ALB
ARG
ARM
AUS
AUT
AZE
BDI
BEL
BEN
BFA
BGD
BGR
BIHBLR
BOL BRA
BWA
CAF
CANCHE
CHL
CHNCIV
CMR
COG
COL
CZE
DEU
DNK
ECU
EGY
ESP
EST
ETH
FINFRA
GAB
GBR
GEO
GHAGIN
GMB
GNB
GNQ
GRC
HKG
HUN
IDNIND
IRLIRN
IRQ
ISR
ITA
JORJPN
KAZKEN
KGZ
KHM
KOR
KWT
LAO
LBN
LBR
LKA
LSO
LTU
LVAMAR
MDA
MDG
MEX
MKD
MLI MNGMOZ
MRT
MUSMWI
MYS
NAM
NER
NGA
NLD
NOR
NPL
NZL
OMN
PAK
PER
PHL
POLPRT
PRY ROM
RUS
RWA
SAU
SDNSEN
SGP
SLE
SRB
SVK
SVN
SWE
SWZ
SYR
TCD
TGO
THA
TJK
TUN
TUR
TWN
TZA
UGA
UKR
URY
USA
VEN
VNM
YEMZAF
ZAR
ZMB
ZWE
Real
Sha
re o
f Non−T
radi
tiona
l Ser
vices
(in
Tota
l Ser
vices
)
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log)
Real share of non-trad. services increases with income
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 16 / 37
U.S. Evidence: Share of Non-traditionalServices
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201020
25
30
35
40
45Sh
are
of N
on−t
radi
tiona
l Ser
vice
s in
Tot
al S
ervi
ces
realnominal
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 17 / 37
U.S. Evidence: Relative Price ofNon-traditional to Traditional Services
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6R
elat
ive
Pric
e of
Non−t
radi
tiona
l to
Trad
ition
al S
ervi
ces
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 18 / 37
Development AccountingBasic Framework
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 19 / 37
Minimal structure
Key assumptions:
competitive marketslinear technology in laborperfect labor mobility across sectors
Development Accounting
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 20 / 37
Linear technologies in each sector
Yi = AiLi, ∀i
Competitive markets and perfect labor mobility across sectors
maxLi
piAiLi − wLi, ⇒ piAi = w,
With∑
i Li = L, it follows:
∑i
piYi = wL; w =
∑i piYiL
Development Accounting
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 21 / 37
One-to-one mapping between income elasticity of relative priceand income elasticity of sectoral productivity
Ai =w/p
pi/p
log(Ai) = log(w/p)− log(pi/p)
Income elasticity of sectoral productivity is one minus incomeelasticity of relative price
Development Accounting
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 22 / 37
Example: income elasticities of relative prices of -0.20 and 0.20,imply income elasticities of sectoral productivity 1.2 and 0.80
Real GDP per capita ratio (rich to poor) is a factor of 49.3-fold,hence, implied sectoral productivity ratios a factor of 107.5-fold(exp(1.2× log(49.3))) and 22.6-fold (exp(0.8× log(49.3)))
For the manufacturing sector, income elasticity of relative price is-0.07 (income elasticity of manufacturing productivity is 1.07),hence, productivity ratio of 64.8-fold (exp(1.07× log(49.3)))
These are stark differences in relative productivities derived fromrelative price behavior within service categories, even compared tothe manufacturing sector
Development Accounting – Results
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 23 / 37
Relative AiGDPpc m s sT sN
D10 0.89 0.74 0.94 1.04 0.81D9 0.66 0.51 0.74 0.83 0.61D5 0.13 0.06 0.23 0.31 0.14D2 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.02D1 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.01
Ratio D10/D1 49.3 70.5 27.8 21.0 73.1Income elasticity – 1.07 0.86 0.79 1.12
Discussion
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 24 / 37
Some evidence on productivity gaps larger in segments of serviceindustries (Retail, Telecom, Banking, Software,...) – Baily andSolow (2001)
Related evidence for the U.S. over time – productivity growth fastin (market) services relative to manufacturing (e.g., Triplett andBosworth, 2004)
Baumol et al (1985)
Development AccountingInput-Output Structure
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 25 / 37
Technologiesqi = Bil
1−αii hαii , ∀i
Bi - productivity in sector ili - total labor hours in sector ihi - intermediate composite used in sector i
Labor and goods markets are competitive
Intermediate Composites
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 26 / 37
Intermediate composite used in sector i
hi =∏j
(gjiϕji
)ϕji
gji - use of intermediate input j in the production of i
Characterization
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 27 / 37
Representative firm in sector i solves
maxli,gji
piqi −∑j
pjgji − wli
(1)
subject to qi and hi
First two terms is value added
pyi yi ≡ piqi −∑j
pjgji. (2)
The first order condition of intermediate input use gji implies,
αiϕjipiqi = pjgji, (3)
Characterization
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 28 / 37
Use optimal demand for intermediate inputs into qi to obtaingross output as a function of only labor and prices,
qi = B1
1−αii li
(αipiphi
) αi1−αi
, (4)
where phi =∏j p
ϕjij
Using definition of value added and substituting for output andintermediate inputs, obtain
pyi yi = pi
(piphi
) αi1−αi
(1− αi)ααi
1−αii B
11−αii li,
TFP in value added Ai is given by (1− αi)ααi
1−αii B
11−αii , where Bi
is total factor productivity in gross output
Characterization
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 29 / 37
The first order condition of profit maximization with respect tothe labor allocation across sectors is given by
pyiAi = w; Ai =w
pyi
where
pyi = pi
∏j
(pipj
)ϕjiαi
1−αi
.
Characterization
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 30 / 37
Hence, sector productivities expressed as a simple function ofrelative income and relative sector gross output prices, and a termincluding the input-output structure,
Ai =w/p
pi/p· 1(
pip
) αi1−αi
[∏j
(pjp
)−ϕji] αi1−αi
. (5)
log(Ai) = log(w/p)−log(pi/p)−αi
1− αi
∑j
ϕji[log(pj/p)−log(pi/p)]
(6)
Need to calibrate αi and ϕji
Share of Intermediate Inputs
USA over Time Manufacturing across Countries
1995 2000 2005 20100
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
_
Manuf.Trad. Svc.Non−trad. Svc.
7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AUSAUT
BELBGR
BRA CAN
CHN CZE
DEUDNK
ESPEST
FINFRA
GBRGRC
HUN
IDN
IND
IRLITA
JPN
KOR
LTULVAMEX NLDPOL PRT
ROM RUS
SVK
SVN SWETUR
TWN
USA
_m
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log) − 2005
Traditional Services across Countries Non-Traditional Services across Countries
7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AUSAUTBEL
BGRBRA
CAN
CHN
CZE
DEUDNKESP
ESTFIN
FRA
GBR
GRCHUN
IDN
IND
IRL
ITA
JPNKORLTULVA
MEX
NLD
POL PRT
ROM
RUS
SVKSVN
SWETUR
TWN
USA
_s T
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log) − 20057 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AUS
AUT
BELBGR
BRACAN
CHN
CZE
DEU
DNK
ESP
EST
FINFRAGBR
GRC
HUN
IDN
IND
IRL
ITA
JPN
KOR
LTU
LVA
MEX
NLDPOL PRTROM
RUS
SVKSVN SWE
TUR TWNUSA
_s N
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log) − 2005
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 31 / 37
Intermediate Inputs in Manufacturing
USA over Time Manufacturing across Countries
1995 2000 2005 20100
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
q jm
Manuf.Trad. Svc.Non−trad. Svc.
7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AUS
AUTBEL
BGR
BRA CAN
CHN CZE
DEU
DNK
ESPEST
FINFRA
GBRGRC
HUN
IDNIND
IRL
ITA
JPN
KOR
LTU
LVAMEX
NLD
POL
PRT
ROMRUS
SVK
SVN
SWE
TUR
TWN
USA
q mm
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log) − 2005
Traditional Services across Countries Non-Traditional Services across Countries
7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AUSAUTBELBGRBRA CANCHN CZE DEUDNKESPEST FINFRAGBRGRCHUNIDNIND IRLITAJPNKORLTULVAMEX NLDPOL PRTROM RUS SVK SVN SWETUR TWN USA
q s Tm
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log) − 20057 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AUSAUTBEL
BGRBRA
CAN
CHN
CZE
DEUDNK
ESPESTFIN
FRAGBR
GRC
HUNIDN
IND
IRL
ITA
JPN
KOR
LTU
LVA
MEX
NLD
POL
PRTROM RUS SVK SVN
SWE
TUR
TWN
USA
q s Nm
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log) − 2005
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 32 / 37
Intermediate Inputs in Trad. Services
USA over Time Manufacturing across Countries
1995 2000 2005 20100
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
q js T
Manuf.Trad. Svc.Non−trad. Svc.
7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AUSAUTBEL
BGR
BRACAN
CHN
CZE
DEU
DNK
ESPEST
FINFRAGBR
GRC
HUNIDN
IND
IRLITA
JPN
KOR
LTU
LVA
MEX
NLD
POLPRT
ROM
RUSSVK
SVN
SWE
TUR
TWN
USA
q ms T
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log) − 2005
Traditional Services across Countries Non-Traditional Services across Countries
7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AUSAUT
BELBGR
BRA
CAN
CHN CZE
DEUDNKESPEST
FIN
FRA
GBR
GRC
HUN
IDNIND
IRL
ITA
JPNKORLTULVAMEX
NLDPOL
PRT
ROM
RUSSVK
SVNSWE
TUR TWNUSA
q s Ts T
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log) − 20057 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AUS
AUTBEL
BGR
BRA
CAN
CHN
CZE
DEU
DNK
ESP
EST
FINFRA
GBR
GRCHUNIDN
IND
IRL
ITA
JPN
KORLTU
LVA
MEX
NLD
POL
PRT
ROM
RUS
SVK
SVN
SWETUR TWN
USA
q s Ns T
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log) − 2005
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 33 / 37
Intermediate Inputs in Non-Trad. Services
USA over Time Manufacturing across Countries
1995 2000 2005 20100
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
q js N
Manuf.Trad. Svc.Non−trad. Svc.
7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AUSAUTBEL
BGRBRA
CAN
CHN
CZE
DEUDNKESP
EST FIN
FRAGBR
GRC
HUNIDN
IND
IRLITAJPN
KOR
LTU
LVA
MEX
NLD
POL
PRT
ROMRUS
SVKSVN SWE
TUR
TWN
USA
q ms N
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log) − 2005
Traditional Services across Countries Non-Traditional Services across Countries
7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AUSAUTBELBGRBRA CANCHN CZE DEUDNKESPEST FINFRAGBRGRCHUNIDNIND IRLITAJPNKORLTULVAMEX NLDPOL PRT
ROMRUS
SVKSVN SWE
TUR TWN USA
q s Ts N
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log) − 20057 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AUS
AUT
BEL
BGR
BRA
CAN
CHN
CZE
DEUDNK
ESPEST
FIN
FRAGBR
GRCHUN
IDN
IND
IRL
ITAJPN
KORLTU
LVA
MEX
NLD
POL
PRT
ROMRUS
SVK SVNSWE
TUR
TWN
USA
q s Ns N
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, log) − 2005
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 34 / 37
Development Accounting with I-O Linkages
Am AsT AsNWith intermediate inputs:
Income elasticity 1.06 0.67 1.14Ratio D10/D1 69.3 12.4 78.0
Without intermediate inputs:Income elasticity 1.07 0.79 1.12Ratio D10/D1 70.5 21.0 73.1
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 35 / 37
Robustness
Am AsT AsN AoWith intermediate inputs:
Income elasticity 1.05 0.65 1.14 1.14Ratio D10/D1 67.6 11.5 77.9 74.2
Without intermediate inputs:Income elasticity 1.07 0.79 1.12 1.11Ratio D10/D1 70.5 21.0 73.1 73.1
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 36 / 37
Conclusions
Restuccia Macro Growth and Development University of Oslo 37 / 37
A non-trivial subset of service categories features a falling relativeprice with income (non-traditional services)
A standard development accounting uncovers the importance ofheterogeneity in services for productivity implications
Labor productivity differences in non-traditional services are muchlarger than those in manufacturing
The process of development involves a reallocation tonon-traditional services
Facilitating development requires solving the productivity problemin non-traditional services
Doing so may require reforms that are more elaborate than thetypical “openness-to-trade” recipe