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Regulation and Supervision After the Storm
February 8, 2012
Global Financial Development Report 2013 GFDR Seminar
– After the onset of the global financial crisis: much discussion about “not wasting” the crisis, and using it to push for needed reforms
• Basel Committee • Financial Stability Board (FSB) • Dodd-Frank Act, Vickers report, etc.
– Much has been done, but is it appropriate? • Does it address the sources of future financial crises?
Introduction Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
– Recommendations for regulatory reform developed in academic fora
• Geneva Report (2009) • LSE Report on the Future of Finance,(2010) • Squam Lake Working Group (2010) • CEPR Future of Banking (2010)
– Common themes: • Information asymmetries and structure of incentives under which agents operate in
the financial system are fundamental sources of weakness in financial systems • Incentive issues need to be more fully reflected in the design of regulatory systems
– We take the discussion a step further, and outline an approach to the regulation of financial systems that would place issues of asymmetric information and incentives at its center.
Introduction Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
• Key issues – Post-crisis transformation of regulatory practices around the world – Specific issues for emerging market and developing economies
• Questions … and preliminary answers – Lessons from the crisis? … Incentive breakdowns – What has changed? … A few things, but more is needed – How big are the likely impacts? … Manageable, but large in some regions – What’s missing? ... Addressing incentive issues
Introduction Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Introduction: Lessons learned from the global financial crisis
• Shortcomings in the micro prudential approach – Promoted regulatory arbitrage – Focused on risks in individual institutions, did not sufficiently reflect systemic risk – Rules poorly designed, some increased systemic risk – Implementation constrained by capacity and incentives of regulators/supervisors
• Shortcomings in market discipline – Basel II sought to expand the role of market discipline elements – Rating agencies given a role in the evaluation of the risks in the portfolio under Pillar I – Explicit role for market discipline introduced under Pillar III – But underlying assumptions not met due to information asymmetries and perverse
incentives
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Introduction: Lessons learned from the global financial crisis
• Shortcomings in surveillance – Financial stability indicators used Basel ratios and suffered from same shortcomings as the
supervisory measures. Models calibrated using historical data from benign periods and did not provide useful early warnings.
– Assessments against international supervisory standards (Basel, IOSCO, IAIS) generally showed high degrees of compliance but often failed to identify shortcomings in regulatory approach (Demirguc-Kunt, Detragiache, 2010).
– Information failures limited the capacity of financial stability assessors to monitor exposures, risk transfers and threats to systemic stability (Impossible to know the extent to which the failure of one institution would impact others and the system generally)
– Silo approach: systemically important segments of the financial system were not covered by surveillance or crisis management arrangements.
– Political and economic climate dampened the incentives of financial stability analysts to dig deeper and question the adequacy of information and underlying assumptions.
– No procedures for resolving large banking institutions.
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
What changed in regulation … global response (Basel III) Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Key Areas of Change Examples of Specific Steps Raise quality, consistency, and transparency of the capital base
Tier 1 capital narrowed down (common shares, retained earnings) Tier 2 capital instruments harmonized Tier 3 capital eliminated
Strengthen risk coverage of the capital framework
Promote more integrated management of market and counterparty credit risk Reduce procyclicality
Put a floor under the build-up of leverage in the banking sector
Introducing a leverage ratio as a supplementary measure to the Basel II risk-based framework
Reduce procyclicality and promoting countercyclical buffers
Promote more forward looking provisions
Protect the banking sector from periods of excess credit growth.
Requirement to use long term data horizons to estimate probabilities of default, downturn loss-given-default estimates, recommended in Basel II, to become mandatory
Introduce a global liquidity standard for internationally active banks
Includes a 30-day liquidity coverage ratio requirement underpinned by a longer-term structural liquidity ratio (NSFR)
Reducing the externalities created by systemically important institutions
Reviewing the need for additional capital, liquidity or other supervisory measures
What changed in regulation … global response (FSB) Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
• FSB principles for sound compensation practices – Stated aim: enhance the stability and robustness of the financial system – Not to be used as a pretext to prevent or impede market entry/access
• Rating agencies – Effort to reduce the financial stability-threatening herding and cliff effects that
currently arise from “credit rating agencies” (CRA) rating thresholds being hard-wired into laws, regulations and market practices,
– Principles to reduce reliance on CRA ratings in standards, laws and regulations. – Aim to trigger a significant change in existing practices, end mechanistic
reliance by market participants and establish stronger internal credit risk assessment practices instead.
• Filling information gaps – Major initiative, 20 recommendations to address information gaps (Nov 2009)
What changed in regulation … global response (FSB) Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
• FSB proposals to deal with too-big-to-fail (TBTF) issues – New international standard (‘Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes’); – Requirements for resolvability assessments and for recovery and resolution
planning for global SIFIs, and for the development of institution-specific cross-border cooperation agreements;
– Requirements for banks determined to be globally systemically important to have additional loss absorption capacity tailored to the impact of their default, to be met with common equity;
– More intensive and effective supervision of all SIFIs.
• FSB/Basel Committee published an initial list of “global SIFIs” – 29 banks, to meet resolution planning requirements by end-2012. – National authorities may extend these requirements to other institutions. – G-SIFI list to be updated and published by the FSB each November. – Methodology and data publicly available so that markets and institutions can
replicate the authorities’ determination.
• Update of the WB banking regulation and supervision survey – Unique dataset of banking regulation and supervision around the world – Previous rounds (2000, 2003, 2007) widely used in research, policy work
• The current, fourth, round of the survey provides comprehensive info on state of regulation and supervision around the world as of 2011
• The first comprehensive look at post-crisis regulation • New data for 134 countries, covering all regions • Contains over 730 questions in 14 sections
– About ½ of Qs same as in previous three survey rounds (comparability) – About ½ of Qs newly added (mostly on macroprudential issues, consumer
protection, Basel II implementation) • Major effort to ensure consistency of responses across countries
– Guidelines, follow-up with respondents via external survey company – FPD and DEC staff involved, seasoned supervisors as consultants
What changed in regulation … national responses Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
WB database of banking regulation and supervision Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
• Covers all G20 countries and a majority of non-G20
• The survey has questions in the following 14 sections: 1. ENTRY INTO BANKING 2. OWNERSHIP 3. CAPITAL 4. ACTIVITIES 5. EXTERNAL AUDITING REQUIREMENTS 6. BANK GOVERNANCE 7. LIQUIDITY & DIVERSIFICATION REQUIREMENTS 8. DEPOSITOR (SAVINGS) PROTECTION SCHEMES 9. ASSET CLASSIFICATION, PROVISIONING, AND WRITE-OFFS 10. ACCOUNTING/INFORMATION DISCLOSURE 11. DISCIPLINE/ PROBLEM INSTITUTIONS/ EXIT 12. SUPERVISION 13. BANKING SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS 14. CONSUMER PROTECTION
What changed in regulation … national responses Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
• Overall, regulatory changes on country level have been evolutionary – For the qualitative questions in the survey, 85 percent of responses unchanged between
2007 and 2011 (“no” remained “no”, “yes” remained “yes, etc.) – Also, most of the quantitative indicators showed relatively little overall movement ….
Post-crisis regulation around the world … Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2008 2009 2010
standarddeviation
average
Capital to assets (unweighted)
• … but notable changes in individual countries in several areas. • For example, in an attempt to respond to the crisis, countries introduced a
plethora of new requirements on bank governance framework….
Post-crisis regulation around the world … Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0 20 40 60 80
Other
Existence of a Board risk committee
Chief risk officer direct reporting line to theBoard or Board Committee
Independence of the Board
Executive compensation
Number of responses
• … and they have sought (or are seeking) to strengthen bank insolvency frameworks.
Post-crisis regulation around the world … Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
No revisions
Revisions under consideration
Implemented coordination arrangementsamong domestic authorities
Introduced a separate bank insolvencyframework
Number of responses
• An important part of the crisis response was increased generosity of deposit protection systems, e.g. in terms of the amounts covered…
Post-crisis regulation around the world … Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Only minor changes or no change
Government guarantee of deposits and bank debts
Expansion of coverage (types of exposures, natureof depositors etc.)
Increase in amount covered
Number of responses
• Renewed impetus after the crisis • New bodies (FSOC, ESRB…), financial stability reports (U.S., Italy, India, ….), stress test publication
• Ongoing work on good practices in macroprudential surveillance • Simply publishing a financial stability report seems to have no impact
– Quality of reports matters (Čihák, Muñoz, Teh Sharifuddin, and Tintchev, 2012)
Push on macroprudential front has intensified… Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Push to implement new Basel rules continues… Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Developed
Developing
median deviation
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
StandardizedApproach
Foundation IRBApproach
Advanced IRBApproach
2007 survey
2011 survey
% o
f cou
ntrie
s ado
ptin
g Ba
sel I
I
• Empirical evidence from crisis (Demirguc-Kunt, Detragiache, Merrouche, 2010) – During the crisis, stock returns of large banks were more sensitive to the simpler capital
ratios than to the risk-adjusted capital ratio – Also, stronger association for “higher-quality capital” (Tier 1, tangible equity) – Builds a case for a simple yet well-defined capital ratios
• The survey suggests no obvious trend (yet?) in use of simple capital ratios – some countries moved to more complex ratios – others re-introduced the simpler ratios
Simple capital ratios: to use or not to use? Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
newly introduced
stopped using
Number of countries Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
• Within Tier 1, respondents put more emphasis on common equity
More emphasis on higher quality capital Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Tier 2 Tier 3
Is the following included in regulatory
capital?
% o
f res
pond
ents
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2007 2011
Is subordinated debt included in
regulatory capital?
% o
f res
pond
ents
Risk-based capital ratios: minimums vs. actuals
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
1020
3040
Actua
l risk
base
d cap
% of
bank
ing sy
stem
(end
-201
0)
8 10 12 14 16Min req risk-based reg cap % (end of 2010)
Reported impact of the new capital rules so far … Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Increasedsubstantially
Increased slightly Neutral / littlechange
Decreased slightly Decreasedsubstantially
impact of moving to Basel II onthe overall regulatory capitallevel of the banking system
% o
f cou
ntrie
s tha
t ado
pted
Bas
el II
• Objective: Analyze the implications of the Basel III regulatory measures for emerging market
and developing countries
• Scope of the analysis
– Impact of Basel III capital requirements
• Higher and better quality capital • Mostly common equity with loss absorbing features • Deductions from current core capital the amount of intangible and qualified assets that
have less loss-absorbing qualities • Such assets can be included in capital only up to 15 % • Implementation period: gradual phase in from 2013 with introduction of deductions
from 2014 to meet 7% common equity ratio (w/ conservation buffer) by 2019
– Impact of liquidity requirements (promote longer term funding of assets and reduce reliance on volatile, wholesale funding sources—Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR)
– No analysis of LCR (short term liquidity coverage ratio)—data issues
– No analysis of leverage ratio—data issues
• Caveats: Analysis very preliminary and incomplete – Used Bankscope data and company reports as a basis for the computations – Many missing data to be refined and explored and assumptions to be verified and
checked with staff with knowledge of specific country cases
What are the likely impacts of the new Basel rules? Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Sample Coverage: 127 banks over 6 regions, 42 countries Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
25
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Basel II Basel IIIminimum
ratio
Basel IIIminimum +
conservationbuffer
Tier 2Other Tier 1Common Equity
Higher Quality of Capital
Higher Level of Capital
4.5%
7% 4% 2%
2%
Basel III capital rules aim to achieve more and better quality capital
Mostly common equity with better risk absorption features
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Share of assets with less loss absorbing characteristics relatively small on average for EMDE banks, except in LAC region
Assets deductions: higher quality capital (in % of Core Tier 1)
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
83%
51%
90% 89% 89% 95% 84%
17%
49%
10% 11% 11% 5% 16%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
ALL LAC ECA MENA EAP SA SSA
% of Deduction Items according to BCBS proposal% of remaining Core Tier 1
Very Preliminary!
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
LAC ALL EAP MENA ECA SSA SA
% of core tier 1 to be deducted
As a result, the needed increase in capital to meet the new capital requirements can be large for some regions
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
8.99%
1.54%
0.55%
6.90%
0.59%
7.49%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Core T1Ratio,
current
Deductions Increase inMkt RWA
Basel IIICore T1Ratio,
current
Cum.retainedearnings,2011-12
Basel IIICore Ratio,
2012
Impact of Basel Regulation on Core Capital Ratio by end 2012, sample average
Current and adjusted capital ratios, with and without retained earnings
Very Preliminary!
Capital declines by 1.5 pp
9.0% 9.5%
11.6% 11.5%
8.2% 8.3%
9.4%
6.9%
4.5%
9.5% 9.5%
6.8% 7.4%
8.1%
7.5%
5.2%
10.5% 10.7%
7.2% 7.8%
9.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
ALL LAC ECA MENA EAP SA SSA
Core Tier 1 Ratio Basel III Core Ratio, 2010New Basle III Core Ratio, 2012
Also wide variation in banks’ ability to meet the required 100% level for the NSFR
Net Stable Funding Ratio (Available Stable Funding / Required Stable Funding)
• ECA and LAC may be the most affected by the NFSR requirement.
• But there is also wide variation within the same region
• Most banks in EAP, SSA and MENA have NSFRs > 100 %
• For ECA, the lowest NFSRs are associated with some banks in Hungary, Slovenia, some CIS countries (Ukraine, Kazakhstan), and Baltics
• For LAC, most Mexican and some Brazilian banks have NSFRs less than 100%.
• Most banks in MENA and SA are well above 100 % level (some banks in UAE, Kuwait, Thailand and Korea have lower ratios)
• For SSA, 3 out of 5 banks in South Africa are below 100% NSRF target.
Note: Diamonds represent min, median and max values
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
ECA LAC EAP SSA MENA
Very Preliminary!
In general banks with high L/D ratios and high wholesale funding ratios have low NSFRs
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500%
NSF
R
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
NSFR vs. Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
EAP ECA
LAC MENA
SSA
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
NSF
R
Share of Wholesale Funding to Total Funding
NSFR vs. Share of Wholesale Funding
EAP ECA LAC
MENA SSA
• Basel III may have varying degrees of impact on EMDEs across regions, with
wide variations also within a given region.
• ECA and LAC regions seem to be the most vulnerable to the LT liquidity requirement (NSFR), where dependence on wholesale funding (ECA) or Loan to Deposit ratios are high (ECA and some LAC). However, other factors may also affect the level of NSFR (e.g., different amounts of government securities in asset portfolios—low levels may result in low NSFRs)
• Further challenges may be ahead in meeting the NSFR requirement: e.g., upcoming rollover needs of European banks and sovereigns may raise the cost of term funding and result in competition for deposits. There are also challenges associated with holding high levels of (liquid) government securities: this would help in meeting the NSFR target but expose the bank to higher sovereign risk
• These findings should be interpreted with caution. The analysis is very preliminary and is subject to significant data problems. Lack of available data and benchmarks for the analysis also calls for further analysis of the assumptions used in the computations.
What do these estimates tell us about Basel III impacts? Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
What are some of the risks with the response?
• Implementation – Resources – Partial responses – National priorities versus level playing field – Need for flexibility
• Design – Basel framework, despite recent improvements, is still primarily a micro prudential
regulatory response (“raise bank capital standards”), not explicitly founded in optimal control theory and likely to fail as conditions change
– Economic theory identifies fundamental sources of weakness : • Asymmetric information • Perverse incentives.
– Missing in Basel is explicit assessment of sources of market failures/externalities – FSB agenda has begun to incorporate elements to address perverse incentives and
asymmetric information --e.g., compensation practices, moral hazard in SIFIs, and information gaps
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Alternative framework for financial system oversight
• Alternative approach would move issues of asymmetric information and incentives to center of the regulatory framework.
• Alternative is an evolution of existing approaches but has a different emphasis
• Asymmetric information: – Enhanced disclosures (examples):
• Major counterparty and sectoral exposures of the firm • Benchmarks for the evaluation of the models used to value assets and risk exposures.
– Permit investors /creditors to assess directly the solvency/liquidity of financial institutions and not rely on Basel -- potentially multiple measures that can evolve as conditions change
– Allows simplification of regulatory measures
• Incentive issues: – adverse selection, moral hazard, principal-agent and monitoring problems, rational
herding, ad contagion -- supported by wide academic literature – The identification of incentive problems would require a specific analysis of incentives --
an incentive audit
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Outline of an incentive audit
• Approach would need to be evolved but elements could include: – underlying legal, institutional and regulatory environment; – ownership and governance structure of financial institutions; – compensation practices; – conflicts of interest; – explicit and implicit guarantees.
• Audit could be conducted through a sequenced analysis that would proceed from higher level to progressively more detailed questions that would identify for the particular environment the relevant incentives that motivate decision making.
• Sequenced approach would enable the audit to drill down and identify factors that could lead to market failures and excessive risk taking in the particular environment (Chai and Johnston 2000)
• Incentive audits would become a key part of the financial stability analysis and FSAPs.
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Differences compared with existing approaches
• Clearly delineates the responsibilities of public bodies (market failures/externalities/systemic risk) and those of private investors (risks in individual firms, contracts and instruments).
• Focuses on addressing failures creates less incentives for regulatory arbitrage. • Rebalancing use of public resources away from micro management of risk and
capital adequacy in financial institutions to one that focused on the sufficiency of information disclosures, factors that influence the incentives to monitor activities, corporate governance, conflicts of interest, explicit and implicit guarantees etc.
• Potentially better attuned to a country's circumstances (an incentive based approach starts with an analysis of the structural characteristics of the individual country, and drills down to identify the sources of perverse incentives/market failure in that specific context; regulatory solutions tailored to the country's circumstances).
• Focus on incentives provides a framework to integrate the different branches of policies that impact the financial system, specifically: (1) financial regulation and supervision; (2) crisis management and safety net arrangements; and (3) competition policy.
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Incentive audits: practical/implementation issues Incentive issues and macroprudential policy
• Alternative approach would be consistent and can inform the new emphasis on a macroprudential approach.
• The development of macroprudential approaches is still at an early stage and so far has emphasized the use of prudential tools to address systemic risk (FSB/IMF/BIS 2011).
• Under the alternative approach financial regulatory policy should be directed towards the fundamental sources of weakness.
• Macroprudential policy would have the aims of identifying and mitigating systemic risk, and should have the capacity to look beyond systemic risk, to identify and address the fundamental sources that give rise to it :
– Asymmetric information and perverse incentives – Market failures due to negative externalities that give rise to systemic risk – Failures in regulatory and supervisory practices – Failures in crisis management arrangement
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Incentive audits: practical/implementation issues Differences in policy responses
• Difference of approach would be in the assessment tools and policy response. • For example FSB/IMF/BIS (2011) recommends dealing with systemic risk by building
capital and liquidity buffers to enhance resiliency (on SIFS to deal with risks in interconnections and pro cyclical buffers to deal with pro cyclicality)
• The alternative framework would identify and correct the incentive distortions/ information frictions that contribute to the buildup of excessive risk at source e.g.
• In interconnectedness: – serious information gaps that prevented the assessment of exposures and
network risks; – incentives in the micro prudential regulations that encouraged risk transfers; – moral hazard associated with the failure of the crisis management
• In pro-cyclicality: – distortions created by the risk weightings on different types of loans; – procedures for the calibration of risk models, provisioning policies, the valuation
of collateral etc; – compensation policies that reward short-term performance; and – incentives to take on excessive debt created by tax system, bankruptcy
procedures, etc
• Central to the different approaches is the question of the effectiveness of the response: would it be possible to mitigate systemic risk without addressing the underlying failures and incentives that give rise to it?
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Incentive audits: practical/implementation issues Policy instruments
• The main policy instruments under the alternative approach would be instruments to correct "failures" in the financial system. The scope of the potential failures is potentially very broad and only a subset could be under the direct control of the macroprudential authority. The following instruments could be considered: – micro prudential tools (capital and liquidity requirements, provisioning and
collateral policies, prompt corrective action) tailored to address systemic risks; – disclosure requirements that could be graduated depending on the threat to
systemic risk and which would cover both regulated and unregulated entities; – conduct of business rules, intended to address conflicts of interest and
transparency of financial transactions, to be applied to all financial firms, agents, auditors and rating agencies;
– compensation practices in financial firms that pose a threat to systemic stability; – mergers and acquisitions involving financial firms that pose or potentially pose a
threat to financial stability; – cease and desist orders covering both regulated and unregulated entities
intended to deal with threats to systemic stability; and – resolution regimes for financial firms intended to address moral hazard .
• There would need to be a mechanism for coordination with other policies that impact incentives and systemic risk, especially central banking and fiscal policies
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Incentive audits: practical/implementation issues
• Policy instruments and institutional arrangements
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Macroprudential Authority
(microprudential, disclosures, conduct of
business, compensation , mergers, acquisitions)
Monetary Authority
Fiscal Authority
Payment system, monetary and exchange rate policies
Crisis management
Tax code effects on debt/leverage, safety net effect effects on monetary aggregates
Figure 1. Triumvirate of Macroeconomic Policy Authorities
Conclusion
• It would be wrong to conclude from the recent crisis experience that just "regulating more" is the way to go.
– Regulatory efficiency and regulatory gaps are the real issue. – Market discipline and regulatory/supervisory discipline are complementary (when
regulation is ineffective or has gaps, market discipline breaks down )
• It would be also wrong to conclude that more complex regulations, such as more complex systems to calculate risk-weighted asset ratios, are necessarily better than simpler ratios.
• Complicated regulations are trying to mimic markets in estimating economic capital required by each institution commensurate with its risk, but they may end up leading to regulatory arbitrage and manipulated ratios.
• More fundamentally, changes in ratios are unlikely to address the underlying failures in economic incentives that led to the global financial crisis.
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Conclusion
• We call for a bolder re-orientation of the regulatory approach, so that it has at its core identification of incentive problems on an on-going basis.
• The challenge of financial sector regulation is to align private incentives with public interest without taxing or subsidizing private risk-taking.
• Credible threats of market entry and exit, healthy competition, and disclosure of quality information are essential in getting this balance right.
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Conclusion
• Specifically, we propose “incentive audits” as a tool to help identify and address perverse incentives faced by financial institutions, market participants, regulators, supervisors and politicians, before they give rise to systemic risk.
• These audits need to be combined with some basic but well-defined capital and liquidity ratios (more difficult for market participants to circumvent), strong enforcement of transparency and use of complementary market signals.
• In this context, transparency does not mean simply more mindless reporting. what matter is not the sheer volume of information, but the clarity and comparability of the disclosures.
Introduction What changed? What are likely impacts? What’s missing? Conclusion
Thank you for your comments and suggestions!
Global Financial Development Report 2013 GFDR Seminar
(Additional slides included for your information)
Additional slides … banking entry
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Do you have the authority to take legal action against thoseentities that undertake banking activities without a given license?
Is more than one license required (e.g. one for each bankingactivity, such as deposit-taking, consumer lending etc.)?
Are foreign entities prohibited from entering through Acquisition?
Are foreign entities prohibited from entering through Subsidiary?
Are foreign entities prohibited from entering through Branch?
Are foreign entities prohibited from entering through JointVenture?
Pre-crisis
Post-crisis
o/w Developing
o/w Developed
Additional slides … ownership
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
What are the requirements for evaluation / approval ofsignificant bank shareholders?: Minimum level of education
What are the requirements for evaluation / approval ofsignificant bank shareholders?: Minimum level of financial…
What are the requirements for evaluation / approval ofsignificant bank shareholders?: Financial capacity to support…
What are the requirements for evaluation / approval ofsignificant bank shareholders?: No criminal record
What are the requirements for evaluation / approval ofsignificant bank shareholders?: No bankruptcy record
What are the requirements for evaluation / approval ofsignificant bank shareholders?: Lack of conflict of interest
Does the regulator have the legal authority to oppose theultimate (beneficial) owner when assessing bank ownership?
Do laws or regulations require the ultimate (beneficial) ownerand controller of a bank to be publicly disclosed?
Can related parties own capital in a bank?
Pre-crisis
Post-crisis
o/w Developing
o/w Developed
Additional slides … capital
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Which regulatory capital adequacy regimes did you use as of…
Which regulatory capital adequacy regimes did you use as of…
Which regulatory capital adequacy regimes did you use as of…
Do you require banks to perform an internal assessment of…
Do you review internal assessments performed by banks?
Does your agency have the legal authority to require additional…
Do you apply different risk weights than those in the Basel…
What variants are offered to banks in calculating capital…
What variants are offered to banks in calculating capital…
What variants are offered to banks in calculating capital…
What variants are offered to banks in calculating capital…
Is Common equity allowed in regulatory capital?
Is Tier 1 allowed in regulatory capital?
Is Tier 2 allowed in regulatory capital?
Is Tier 3 allowed in regulatory capital?
Pre-crisis
Post-crisis
o/w Developing
o/w Developed
Additional slides … audits
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Is an audit by a professional external auditor required for allcommercial banks in your jurisdiction?
Are specific requirements for the extent or nature of the auditspelled out?
Do regulations explicitly prohibit auditing firms from providingnon-audit services to the banks whose financial accounts they…
Is the audit report on the financial statements of a bank requiredto be publicly disclosed together with these financial statements?
Are external auditors subject to independent oversight byMinistry of Finance or other government department?
Are external auditors subject to independent oversight bySpecialized public entity (e.g. independent audit regulator)?
Are external auditors subject to independent oversight by Bankingsupervisory agency?
In cases where the supervisor identifies that the bank hasreceived an inadequate audit, does the supervisor have the…
In cases where the supervisor identifies that the bank hasreceived an inadequate audit, does the supervisor have the…
Pre-crisis
Post-crisis
o/w Developing
o/w Developed
Additional slides … bank governance
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Do the above guidelines or requirements apply uniformly to allbanks (e.g. including state-owned and foreign banks)?
Does the supervisor exercise approval authority with respect tothe appointment of Board directors?
Does the supervisor exercise approval authority with respect tothe appointment of Senior bank management?
Is the remuneration or compensation of Board directorsevaluatedas part of the supervisory process to ensure that they do not…
Is the remuneration or compensation of Senior bankmanagement evaluated as part of the supervisory process to…
Is the remuneration or compensation of Other bank staff (e.g.traders) evaluated as part of the supervisory process to ensure…
Does the supervisory agency have the authority to take regulatoryaction when it considers that the remuneration or…
Does the regulatory definition of related parties includeSignificant/controlling shareholders?
Does the regulatory definition of related parties include Boarddirectors?
Does the regulatory definition of related parties include Relativesof significant/controlling shareholders and board directors?
Does the regulatory definition of related parties include Businessinterests of significant/controlling shareholders, board…
Is there a regulatory limit on related party exposures?
Pre-crisis
Post-crisis
o/w Developing
o/w Developed
Additional slides … liquidity and diversification
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Are there any exempted items (e.g. cash secured lending,government or government guaranteed lending etc.) in applying…
Are there any regulatory rules or supervisory guidelines regardingasset diversification?
Are banks prohibited from making loans abroad?
Are there regulatory rules or supervisory guidelines regardingDiversification of funding sources of banks' liquidity…
Are there regulatory rules or supervisory guidelines regardingContingency funding plans, including stress testing of banks'…
Is Banks' liquidity management of foreign currencies requirementsin place in your jurisdiction?
Is Central Bank reserve and/or deposit requirements in place inyour jurisdiction?
Is Regulatory minimum ratio on liquid assets (e.g. as a percentageof total balance sheet or deposit base) requirements in place in…
Is Maturity mismatch/'gap' limits requirements in place in yourjurisdiction?
Are banks required to hold reserves in foreign currencies or otherforeign-denominated instruments in order to fulfill the…
Pre-crisis
Post-crisis
o/w Developing
o/w Developed
Additional slides … depositor protection schemes
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Is there an explicit deposit insurance protection system for commercial…Does the deposit insurance agency/fund administrator have Bank…
Does the deposit insurance agency/fund administrator have Authority to…Does the deposit insurance agency/fund administrator have Bank…
Does the deposit insurance agency/fund administrator have Method of…Does the deposit insurance agency/fund administrator have Paybox…
Does the deposit insurance authority by itself have the legal power to…Is participation in the deposit insurance system compulsory for Domestic…
Is participation in the deposit insurance system compulsory for Foreign…Is participation in the deposit insurance system compulsory for Foreign…
Is Foreign currency deposits excluded from deposit insurance coverage?Is Interbank deposits excluded from deposit insurance coverage?
Is Deposits of the foreign branches of domestic banks excluded from…Is Deposits of the foreign subsidiaries of domestic banks excluded from…
Is the deposit insurance coverage Per depositor account?Is the deposit insurance coverage Per depositor?
Is the deposit insurance coverage Per depositor per institution?Were insured depositors wholly compensated (to the extent of legal…
Were any deposits not explicitly covered by the deposit insurance scheme…
Pre-crisis
Post-crisis
o/w Developing
o/w Developed
Additional slides … asset classification, provisioning
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Do you have an asset classification system under which bankshave to report the quality of their loans and advances using a…
Does Asset classification system Apply to all commercial banks?
Does Asset classification system Cover all types of borrowers(e.g. including government)?
Does Asset classification system Cover all loans and advances toa borrower?
Does Asset classification system Impose a uniform classificationrequirement for specific borrowers (e.g. government and/or…
Does accrued, though unpaid, interest/principal enter the bank'sincome statement while the loan is classified as non-performing?
Are banks allowed to upgrade the classification of a loan oradvance immediately after it has been restructured?
If a customer has multiple loans and advances and one of them isclassified as non-performing, are all the other exposures…
Are there minimum levels of specific provisions for loans andadvances that are set by the regulator?
Is there a regulatory requirement for general provisions on loansand advances?
Do you require banks to write off non-performing loans after aspecific time period?
Pre-crisis
Post-crisis
o/w Developing
o/w Developed
Additional slides … accounting/info disclosure
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Are banks required to prepare consolidated accounts for…
Are all banks operating in your country (including foreign bank…
Are all banks operating in your country (including foreign bank…
Do banks disclose to the public Full audited financial statements?
Do banks disclose to the public Off-balance sheet items?
Do banks disclose to the public Governance and risk…
Do banks disclose to the public Regulatory capital and capital…
Do banks disclose to the public Transactions with related…
Do banks disclose to the public Any other material information…
Do banks disclose to the public Scope of consolidation…
Are bank directors legally liable if information disclosed is…
Do supervisors require banks to publicly disclose All fines and…
Do supervisors require banks to publicly disclose Other…
Are commercial banks required by supervisors to have external…
Pre-crisis
Post-crisis
o/w Developing
o/w Developed
Additional slides … discipline/problem institutions
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Cease and desist-type orders for imprudent bank practices
Forbearance (i.e. to waive regulatory and supervisory…
Require a bank to meet supervisory requirements (e.g. capital,…
Require bank to enhance governance, internal controls and risk…
Require bank to apply specific provisioning and/or write-off…
Require banks to constitute provisions to cover actual or…
Restrict or place conditions on the types of business conducted…
Withdraw the bank's license
Require banks to reduce/restructure their operations (e.g. via…
Require banks to reduce or suspend dividends to shareholders
Require banks to reduce or suspend bonuses and other…
Suspend or remove bank directors
Suspend or remove managers
Require commitment/action from controlling shareholder(s) to…
Are bank regulators/supervisors required to make public…
Does the supervisory agency operate an early intervention…
Is there a separate bank insolvency framework that is distinct…
Is the insolvency framework the same for bank holding…
Is court approval required to Declare insolvency?
Is court approval required to Supersede shareholders' rights?
Pre-crisis
Post-crisis
o/w Developing
o/w Developed
Additional slides … supervision
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Are there any banks that are not under the jurisdiction of thisagency?
Can the supervisory authority force a bank to change its internalorganizational structure?
Is the appointment based on a recommendation by an externalexpert or panel of experts?
Does the head of the supervisory agency have a fixed term?
Is there a maximum number of terms?
Does the supervisory agency need to obtain approval from thegovernment in order to Issue binding secondary regulations for…
Does the supervisory agency need to obtain approval from thegovernment in order to Determine its budget?
Does the supervisory agency need to obtain approval from thegovernment in order to Obtain funding?
Does the supervisory agency need to obtain approval from thegovernment in order to Hire and fire senior staff?
Does the supervisory agency need to obtain approval from thegovernment in order to Define salaries and benefits structure…
Does the supervisory agency need to obtain approval from thegovernment in order to Define its organizational structure?
Can individual supervisory staff be held personally liable fordamages to a bank caused by their actions or omissions…
Can the supervisory agency be held legally liable for damages toa bank caused by its actions?
Pre-crisis
Post-crisis
o/w Developing
o/w Developed
Additional slides… consumer protection
Source. Staff calculations based on the WB Banking Regulation and Supervision database.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Is there a separate unit or team designated to work on consumerprotection in your agency?
Issue warnings to financial institutions to enforce consumerprotection laws and regulations?
Require providers to refund excess charges to enforce consumerprotection laws and regulations?
Require providers to withdraw misleading advertisements toenforce consumer protection laws and regulations?
Impose fines and penalties to enforce consumer protection lawsand regulations?
Issue public notice of violations to enforce consumer protectionlaws and regulations?
Withdraw the offending provider’s license to operate to enforce consumer protection laws and regulations?
Post-crisis
o/w Developing
o/w Developed