Regression Final Final

Rick Rick XavierObs. Period Revenues Fuel Salaries and Wages Capacity Purchases

1 2Q-2000 2,571,000,000 313,000,000 719,000,000 —

2 3Q-2000 2,622,000,000 354,000,000 748,000,000 —

3 4Q-2000 2,429,000,000 392,000,000 736,000,000 —

4 1Q-2001 2,451,000,000 345,000,000 758,000,000 —

5 2Q-2001 2,556,000,000 349,000,000 800,000,000 —

6 3Q-2001 2,223,000,000 322,000,000 779,000,000 —

7 4Q-2001 1,739,000,000 213,000,000 684,000,000 —

8 1Q-2002 1,993,000,000 208,000,000 732,000,000 —

9 2Q-2002 2,192,000,000 254,000,000 746,000,000 —

10 3Q-2002 2,178,000,000 276,000,000 743,000,000 —

11 4Q-2002 2,039,000,000 285,000,000 738,000,000 —

12 1Q-2003 2,042,000,000 347,000,000 778,000,000 —

13 2Q-2003 2,216,000,000 302,000,000 762,000,000 —

14 3Q-2003 2,365,000,000 316,000,000 778,000,000 —

15 4Q-2003 2,247,000,000 290,000,000 738,000,000 158,000,000

16 1Q-2004 2,307,000,000 333,000,000 688,000,000 317,000,000

17 2Q-2004 2,553,000,000 387,000,000 711,000,000 328,000,000

18 3Q-2004 2,602,000,000 414,000,000 703,000,000 347,000,000

19 4Q-2004 2,437,000,000 453,000,000 717,000,000 359,000,000

20 1Q-2005 2,505,000,000 470,000,000 715,000,000 353,000,000

21 2Q-2005 2,857,000,000 575,000,000 649,000,000 382,000,000

22 3Q-2005 3,001,000,000 684,000,000 646,000,000 406,000,000

23 4Q-2005 2,845,000,000 714,000,000 639,000,000 431,000,000

24 1Q-2006 2,947,000,000 672,000,000 661,000,000 415,000,000

25 2Q-2006 3,507,000,000 744,000,000 791,000,000 454,000,000

26 3Q-2006 3,518,000,000 858,000,000 743,000,000 475,000,000

27 4Q-2006 3,156,000,000 760,000,000 680,000,000 447,000,000

28 1Q-2007 3,179,000,000 684,000,000 726,000,000 430,000,000

29 2Q-2007 3,710,000,000 842,000,000 821,000,000 444,000,000

30 3Q-2007 3,820,000,000 895,000,000 836,000,000 446,000,000

31 4Q-2007 3,523,000,000 933,000,000 744,000,000 473,000,000

32 1Q-2008 3,570,000,000 1,048,000,000 729,000,000 506,000,000

33 2Q-2008 4,044,000,000 1,363,000,000 704,000,000 589,000,000

34 3Q-2008 4,072,000,000 1,501,000,000 765,000,000 553,000,000

35 4Q-2008 3,471,000,000 993,000,000 760,000,000 425,000,000

15,157,000,000 4,905,000,000 2,958,000,000 2,073,000,000

Z Rick Z XavierAircraft Rentals Landing Fees Distribution Costs Aircraft Maintenance Depreciation

210,000,000 138,000,000 261,000,000 171,000,000 98,000,000

215,000,000 133,000,000 255,000,000 167,000,000 102,000,000

213,000,000 132,000,000 217,000,000 149,000,000 107,000,000

214,000,000 141,000,000 243,000,000 160,000,000 105,000,000

223,000,000 153,000,000 230,000,000 162,000,000 111,000,000

230,000,000 139,000,000 194,000,000 142,000,000 120,000,000

236,000,000 148,000,000 142,000,000 104,000,000 131,000,000

228,000,000 161,000,000 172,000,000 114,000,000 106,000,000

231,000,000 160,000,000 158,000,000 119,000,000 112,000,000

227,000,000 163,000,000 138,000,000 119,000,000 112,000,000

216,000,000 149,000,000 124,000,000 124,000,000 114,000,000

223,000,000 152,000,000 127,000,000 133,000,000 116,000,000

224,000,000 152,000,000 138,000,000 126,000,000 110,000,000

225,000,000 165,000,000 131,000,000 135,000,000 110,000,000

224,000,000 151,000,000 135,000,000 115,000,000 108,000,000

220,000,000 160,000,000 137,000,000 112,000,000 104,000,000

222,000,000 163,000,000 140,000,000 102,000,000 105,000,000

224,000,000 171,000,000 139,000,000 107,000,000 104,000,000

225,000,000 160,000,000 136,000,000 93,000,000 102,000,000

227,000,000 171,000,000 138,000,000 112,000,000 99,000,000

229,000,000 181,000,000 154,000,000 106,000,000 98,000,000

234,000,000 182,000,000 154,000,000 116,000,000 97,000,000

238,000,000 174,000,000 142,000,000 121,000,000 95,000,000

245,000,000 185,000,000 160,000,000 127,000,000 96,000,000

248,000,000 198,000,000 178,000,000 140,000,000 97,000,000

249,000,000 195,000,000 157,000,000 140,000,000 99,000,000

248,000,000 186,000,000 155,000,000 140,000,000 99,000,000

248,000,000 193,000,000 161,000,000 144,000,000 99,000,000

248,000,000 190,000,000 176,000,000 169,000,000 101,000,000

249,000,000 209,000,000 171,000,000 166,000,000 106,000,000

249,000,000 198,000,000 174,000,000 142,000,000 107,000,000

247,000,000 207,000,000 182,000,000 159,000,000 106,000,000

246,000,000 210,000,000 194,000,000 167,000,000 108,000,000

244,000,000 225,000,000 182,000,000 152,000,000 112,000,000

240,000,000 210,000,000 159,000,000 135,000,000 111,000,000

977,000,000 852,000,000 717,000,000 613,000,000 437,000,000

Sean

Passenger Services Other Expenses

91,000,000 284,000,000

97,000,000 288,000,000

89,000,000 277,000,000

91,000,000 318,000,000

96,000,000 295,000,000

89,000,000 121,000,000

71,000,000 166,000,000

77,000,000 382,000,000

73,000,000 454,000,000

78,000,000 276,000,000

68,000,000 277,000,000

70,000,000 320,000,000

73,000,000 91,000,000

81,000,000 250,000,000

73,000,000 455,000,000

69,000,000 304,000,000

76,000,000 279,000,000

84,000,000 287,000,000

77,000,000 278,000,000

77,000,000 316,000,000

84,000,000 280,000,000

91,000,000 282,000,000

80,000,000 305,000,000

82,000,000 293,000,000

90,000,000 323,000,000

97,000,000 313,000,000

87,000,000 333,000,000

90,000,000 340,000,000

99,000,000 357,000,000

105,000,000 357,000,000

95,000,000 328,000,000

96,000,000 356,000,000

107,000,000 427,000,000

113,000,000 461,000,000

91,000,000 372,000,000

407,000,000 1,616,000,000

Sean

Obs. Period Total Aircraft Leased Aircraft Flights Passengers Available Seat Miles

1 2Q-2000 522 410 97,871 12,084,000 21,384,000,000

2 3Q-2000 535 414 97,967 12,155,000 22,356,000,000

3 4Q-2000 522 398 98,378 11,456,000 21,409,000,000

4 1Q-2001 548 406 98,590 11,220,000 21,459,000,000

5 2Q-2001 557 416 99,018 12,256,000 22,813,000,000

6 3Q-2001 501 377 98,564 11,254,000 21,994,000,000

7 4Q-2001 522 393 81,109 9,508,000 18,219,000,000

8 1Q-2002 538 400 81,883 12,062,000 20,375,000,000

9 2Q-2002 570 404 82,815 13,099,000 22,286,000,000

10 3Q-2002 570 401 81,737 13,006,000 22,626,000,000

11 4Q-2002 554 410 78,809 12,874,000 21,054,000,000

12 1Q-2003 562 419 75,178 11,518,000 20,843,000,000

13 2Q-2003 570 428 75,617 13,044,000 21,241,000,000

14 3Q-2003 570 428 76,297 13,727,000 22,819,000,000

15 4Q-2003 579 434 75,650 13,769,000 21,907,000,000

16 1Q-2004 586 437 74,859 12,810,000 22,670,000,000

17 2Q-2004 587 440 75,816 14,558,000 24,150,000,000

18 3Q-2004 592 445 74,211 14,862,000 24,674,000,000

19 4Q-2004 594 448 74,443 14,252,000 23,588,000,000

20 1Q-2005 598 453 71,494 14,122,000 23,585,000,000

21 2Q-2005 604 459 74,651 15,540,000 25,482,000,000

22 3Q-2005 611 466 74,630 15,905,000 26,833,000,000

23 4Q-2005 622 477 75,886 15,448,000 25,720,000,000

24 1Q-2006 630 483 74,962 15,594,000 26,117,000,000

25 2Q-2006 634 484 77,729 17,596,000 28,259,000,000

26 3Q-2006 648 482 77,468 17,328,000 29,262,000,000

27 4Q-2006 648 480 79,030 16,601,000 27,280,000,000

28 1Q-2007 630 446 78,601 16,176,000 27,250,000,000

29 2Q-2007 625 418 82,582 18,120,000 29,592,000,000

30 3Q-2007 631 415 81,118 17,901,000 30,346,000,000

31 4Q-2007 628 415 80,850 16,733,000 28,550,000,000

32 1Q-2008 641 414 76,719 16,440,000 28,376,000,000

33 2Q-2008 630 390 76,096 17,108,000 30,304,000,000

34 3Q-2008 653 412 78,599 17,962,000 30,383,000,000

35 4Q-2008 632 397 76,000 15,183,000 26,448,000,000

Available Seat Miles Regional Passenger Miles Flown Employees Fuel Price Fuel Consumed

— 16,491,000,000 45,500 $0.80 386,000,000

— 17,325,000,000 46,000 $0.87 398,000,000

— 15,340,000,000 45,944 $0.89 372,000,000

— 15,114,000,000 38,396 $0.86 369,000,000

— 17,053,000,000 39,000 $0.82 391,000,000

— 16,206,000,000 39,500 $0.82 373,000,000

— 12,767,000,000 39,461 $0.83 369,000,000

— 14,867,000,000 40,229 $0.64 308,000,000

— 16,489,000,000 41,011 $0.72 332,000,000

— 16,960,000,000 41,809 $0.76 340,000,000

— 17,252,000,000 40,244 $0.74 316,000,000

1,767,000,000 14,352,000,000 38,960 $1.03 305,000,000

2,073,000,000 16,129,000,000 39,000 $0.88 308,000,000

1,605,000,000 18,041,000,000 39,500 $0.86 330,000,000

2,980,000,000 16,412,000,000 39,000 $0.87 314,000,000

2,400,000,000 16,255,000,000 38,240 $1.04 320,000,000

2,603,000,000 18,735,000,000 37,496 $1.79 347,000,000

1,999,000,000 19,922,000,000 36,766 $1.20 345,000,000

3,408,000,000 18,239,000,000 38,255 $1.19 321,000,000

2,740,000,000 18,112,000,000 41,831 $1.45 324,000,000

3,026,000,000 20,292,000,000 45,742 $1.67 344,000,000

3,112,000,000 21,762,000,000 50,018 $1.88 364,000,000

3,095,000,000 20,033,000,000 42,200 $1.78 344,000,000

3,082,000,000 20,336,000,000 42,600 $1.90 347,000,000

3,374,000,000 23,367,000,000 43,450 $2.11 375,000,000

3,503,000,000 24,042,000,000 41,500 $2.22 387,000,000

3,292,000,000 21,772,000,000 38,033 $2.06 362,000,000

3,126,000,000 21,450,000,000 41,800 $1.90 361,000,000

3,177,000,000 24,623,000,000 43,300 $2.08 395,000,000

3,193,000,000 25,422,000,000 41,400 $2.21 406,000,000

3,104,000,000 22,670,000,000 39,640 $2.50 380,000,000

3,098,000,000 22,280,000,000 43,000 $2.80 375,000,000

3,450,000,000 24,836,000,000 40,100 $3.86 389,000,000

3,390,000,000 24,746,000,000 43,500 $3.45 395,000,000

3,046,000,000 20,825,000,000 42,490 $2.93 339,000,000

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.995571089

R Square 0.991161793

Adjusted R Square 0.961750028

Standard Error 62352744.44

Observations 35

ANOVA

df SS MS

Regression 1 1.48242E+19 1.48242E+19

Residual 34 1.32187E+17 3.88786E+15

Total 35 1.49564E+19

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 0 #N/A #N/A

Amount Spent on fuel 0.999002733 0.016178455 61.7489594

Fuel=.999002733(Fuel Price*Fuel Consumed)

Decreasing flying capacity causes there to be a large spike in fuel consumed

Fuel costs are strcitly variable and reduing flying capacity should have a large impact on cost of fuel

Fuel consumtion is rising, but the price of fuel is falling rapidly

Q1 Q2 Q3

2009 732,728,544.55 889,212,332.64 733,577,696.87

2008 1,048,000,000.00 1,363,000,000.00 1,501,000,000.00

Decrease

F Significance F

3812.933987 1.1069E-35

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

1.67116E-36 0.966124157 1.031881308 0.966124 1.031881

Fuel costs are strcitly variable and reduing flying capacity should have a large impact on cost of fuel

Q4 Total

947,474,172.03 3,302,992,746.09

993,000,000.00 4,905,000,000.00

1,602,007,253.91

0

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000

300000000

350000000

400000000

450000000

0 1E+09 2E+09

Fuel Consumed

Fuel Consumed

Linear (Fuel Consumed)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

0 1E+09

Fuel Price

Fuel Consumed

Linear (Fuel Consumed)

2E+09

Fuel Price

Fuel Price

Linear (Fuel Price)

SUMMARY OUTPUT



R Square 0.006891389

Adjusted R Square -0.023202811


Observations 35

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 5.18976E+14 5.18976E+14 0.228993934 0.635426182

Residual 33 7.47889E+16 2.26633E+15

Total 34 7.53079E+16

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 704701747.6 60390402.57 11.66910167 2.96338E-13 581836549.7

Available Seat Miles 0.001163389 0.002431157 0.478533106 0.635426182 -0.003782837

Salaries and wages will be treated as a fixed cost.

Total cost for the year projected 2,818,806,990.36

Reduced by 11 percent 2,508,738,221.42

Difference 310,068,768.94

Salaries and wages will be treated as a fixed cost because this is a very weak regression. The adjusted R squared term is very low, and the related P and T values for the variable compnent are too low to be considred signifigant.

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

827566945.4 581836549.7 827566945.4

0.006109615 -0.003782837 0.006109615


0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

0 500000000 1E+09

Flights

Flights

Linear (Flights)


Linear (Flights)

Passengers Passenger Services SUMMARY OUTPUT

12,084,000 91,000,000

12,155,000 97,000,000 Regression Statistics

11,456,000 89,000,000 Multiple R 0.580334066

11,220,000 91,000,000 R Square 0.336787628

12,256,000 96,000,000 Adjusted R Square 0.316690284

11,254,000 89,000,000 Standard Error 9474685.77

9,508,000 71,000,000 Observations 35

12,062,000 77,000,000

13,099,000 73,000,000 ANOVA

13,006,000 78,000,000 df

12,874,000 68,000,000 Regression 1

11,518,000 70,000,000 Residual 33

13,044,000 73,000,000 Total 34

13,727,000 81,000,000

13,769,000 73,000,000 Coefficients

12,810,000 69,000,000 Intercept 44584951.03319

14,558,000 76,000,000 Passengers 2.87425

14,862,000 84,000,000

14,252,000 77,000,000

14,122,000 77,000,000

15,540,000 84,000,000

15,905,000 91,000,000

15,448,000 80,000,000

15,594,000 82,000,000

17,596,000 90,000,000 Quarter 1

17,328,000 97,000,000

2009 Forcasted Passenger

Services Cost85,997,146.24$

16,601,000 87,000,000 2008 Passenger Services Cost 96,000,000.00$

16,176,000 90,000,000

18,120,000 99,000,000

17,901,000 105,000,000

16,733,000 95,000,000

16,440,000 96,000,000

17,108,000 107,000,000

17,962,000 113,000,000

15,183,000 91,000,000

Y= 44,584,951.03+2.87425(x)

SS MS F

1.50434E+15 1.50434E+15 16.75781726

2.9624E+15 8.97697E+13

4.46674E+15

Standard Error t Stat P-value

10222241.76293 4.36156 0.00012

0.70213 4.09363 0.00026

2009 Forecasted # of Passengers

14,408,000

16,348,000

16,795,000

15,258,000

2 3 4

91,573,191.40$ 92,857,981.19$ 88,440,258.81$

107,000,000.00$ 113,000,000.00$ 91,000,000.00$

Significance F

0.000257729

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

23787643.79227 65382258.27410 23787643.79227 65382258.27410

1.44576 4.30274 1.44576 4.30274

Total

358,868,577.64$

407,000,000.00$

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

0 5,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,000

Passenger Services

Passenger Services

Linear (PassengerServices)

Passenger Services

Linear (PassengerServices)

Revenues Distribution Costs SUMMARY OUTPUT

2,571,000,000 261,000,000

2,622,000,000 255,000,000 Regression Statistics

2,429,000,000 217,000,000 Multiple R 0.2010272

2,451,000,000 243,000,000 R Square 0.0404119

2,556,000,000 230,000,000 Adjusted R Square 0.0113335

2,223,000,000 194,000,000 Standard Error 36073252

1,739,000,000 142,000,000 Observations 35

1,993,000,000 172,000,000

2,192,000,000 158,000,000 ANOVA

2,178,000,000 138,000,000 df SS

2,039,000,000 124,000,000 Regression 1 1.80846E+15

2,042,000,000 127,000,000 Residual 33 4.29422E+16

2,216,000,000 138,000,000 Total 34 4.47507E+16

2,365,000,000 131,000,000

2,247,000,000 135,000,000 Coefficients Standard Error

2,307,000,000 137,000,000 Intercept 135333159 27757926.72

2,553,000,000 140,000,000 Revenues 0.0114614 0.0097223

2,602,000,000 139,000,000

2,437,000,000 136,000,000 Fixed Cost

2,505,000,000 138,000,000 135,333,159.00$

2,857,000,000 154,000,000 Estimated Distribution Costs for 2009

3,001,000,000 154,000,000 135333159*4 =

2,845,000,000 142,000,000

2,947,000,000 160,000,000 Distribution Costs 2008

3,507,000,000 178,000,000 Quarter 1 182,000,000

3,518,000,000 157,000,000 Quarter 2 194,000,000

3,156,000,000 155,000,000 Quarter 3 182,000,000

3,179,000,000 161,000,000 Quarter 4 159,000,000

3,710,000,000 176,000,000 Total 717,000,000

3,820,000,000 171,000,000

3,523,000,000 174,000,000

3,570,000,000 182,000,000

4,044,000,000 194,000,000

4,072,000,000 182,000,000

3,471,000,000 159,000,000

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000

300000000

MS F Significance F

1.80846E+15 1.389756836 0.246876514

1.30128E+15

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

4.875477915 2.66112E-05 78859232.16 1.92E+08 78859232 1.92E+08

1.178879483 0.246876514 -0.008318748 0.031242 -0.00832 0.031242

Cost function only seems to reflect fixed costs, despite fact that for last 3 years relationship is quite linear

Estimated Distribution Costs for 2009 Reduced by 11%

541,332,636.00$ 481,786,046.04$

Distribution Costs 2008

0

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000

300000000

0 500000000 1E+09 1.5E+09 2E+09 2.5E+09 3E+09 3.5E+09

Distribution Costs

Cost function only seems to reflect fixed costs, despite fact that for last 3 years relationship is quite linear

4E+09 4.5E+09

Distribution Costs

Linear (Distribution Costs)

SUMMARY OUTPUT



R Square 0.970232952



Observations 21

ANOVA

df

Regression 1

Residual 20

Total 21

Coefficients

Intercept 0

Regional Seat Miles Available 0.136168028

Regional Capacity Purchases is strictly variable relating to the regional seat miles available. Reducing capacity 11 percent will reduce seat miles available and make this cost lower.

Regional capacit purchases=.136168028(Regional Available Seat Miles)

2009

2008

Decrease

SS MS F Significance F

3.68815E+18 3.68815E+18 651.8838822 3.60993E-16

1.13154E+17 5.65768E+15

3.8013E+18

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%


0.005333226 25.53201681 9.75696E-17 0.125043113 0.147292944

Regional Capacity Purchases is strictly variable relating to the regional seat miles available. Reducing capacity 11 percent will reduce seat miles available and make this cost lower.

Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Total

404,555,212.19$ 414,495,478.26$ 426,205,928.70$ 408,776,421.07$ 1,654,033,040.21$

506,000,000 589,000,000 553,000,000 425,000,000 2,073,000,000.00$

418,966,959.79$

Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

#N/A #N/A

0.125043 0.147293

Available Seat Miles Aircraft Rentals SUMMARY OUTPUT

21,384,000,000 210,000,000


21,409,000,000 213,000,000 Multiple R

21,459,000,000 214,000,000 R Square

22,813,000,000 223,000,000 Adjusted R Square

21,994,000,000 230,000,000 Standard Error

18,219,000,000 236,000,000 Observations

20,375,000,000 228,000,000

22,286,000,000 231,000,000 ANOVA

22,626,000,000 227,000,000

21,054,000,000 216,000,000 Regression

20,843,000,000 223,000,000 Residual

21,241,000,000 224,000,000 Total

22,819,000,000 225,000,000

21,907,000,000 224,000,000

22,670,000,000 220,000,000 Intercept

24,150,000,000 222,000,000 Available Seat Miles

24,674,000,000 224,000,000

23,588,000,000 225,000,000 Y= a+bX+e

23,585,000,000 227,000,000 157601796 + .0030209(X)

25,482,000,000 229,000,000 X= Available Seat Miles

26,833,000,000 234,000,000

25,720,000,000 238,000,000

26,117,000,000 245,000,000

28,259,000,000 248,000,000

29,262,000,000 249,000,000

27,280,000,000 248,000,000

27,250,000,000 248,000,000

29,592,000,000 248,000,000 2009 Aircraft Rental Cost (11% Reduction)

30,346,000,000 249,000,000 2008 Aircraft Rental Cost

28,550,000,000 249,000,000

28,376,000,000 247,000,000

30,304,000,000 246,000,000

30,383,000,000 244,000,000

26,448,000,000 240,000,000


0.81756494

0.668412431

0.658364323

7252693.232

35


1 3.49912E+15 3.49912E+15 66.52122173 2.0454E-09

33 1.73585E+15 5.26016E+13

34 5.23497E+15


157,601,796.05 9200376.541 17.12992891 5.48273E-18 138883489.2

0.003020861 0.000370383 8.156054299 2.0454E-09 0.002267312

Projected Number of Seat Miles

Quarter 1 26,323,000,000.00

Quarter 2 28,007,000,000.00

Quarter 3 28,933,000,000.00

Quarter 4 26,291,000,000.00

Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Total

237,120,946.70$ 242,208,142.30$ 245,186,749.70$ 237,024,277.90$ 961,540,116.60$

247,000,000.00$ 246,000,000.00$ 244,000,000.00$ 240,000,000.00$ 977,000,000.00$

If available seat miles is the seats available multiplied by

the miles flown then an increase in seat miles means

more miles are flown so more aircrafts need to be

rented

Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

176320102.9 1.39E+08 1.76E+08

0.00377441 0.002267 0.003774

If available seat miles is the seats available multiplied by

the miles flown then an increase in seat miles means

more miles are flown so more aircrafts need to be

rented

200000000

210000000

220000000

230000000

240000000

250000000

260000000

0 4E+10

Aircraft Rentals

Aircraft Rentals

Linear (AircraftRentals)

SUMMARY OUTPUT



R Square 0.805471254

Adjusted R Square0.799576444


Observations 35

ANOVA


Regression 1 1.71409E+16 1.71409E+16 136.6407382 2.82912E-13

Residual 33 4.13968E+15 1.25445E+14

Total 34 2.12806E+16


Intercept 32062649.06 12083921.59 2.653331438 0.012162632 7477725.727

Passengers 9.702143145 0.829999017 11.68934293 2.82912E-13 8.013497448

Landing Fees=32062649+9.702143(Passengers)

Landing fees are driven by the number of passengers, since it relates to the amount paid to the airports for security fees.

mostly fixed cost, reducing flight capacity will not affect greatly

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total

2009 171,851,125.34 190,673,282.76 195,010,140.69 180,097,946.89 737,632,495.69

2008 207,000,000 210,000,000 225,000,000 210,000,000 852,000,000

Decrease 114,367,504.31

Reduction in capacity causes the amount of passengers flown to be lower leading to lower costs in landing fees

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

56647572 7477726 56647572

11.39079 8.013497 11.39079

Landing fees are driven by the number of passengers, since it relates to the amount paid to the airports for security fees.

Reduction in capacity causes the amount of passengers flown to be lower leading to lower costs in landing fees

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

18000000

20000000

0 100000000 200000000 300000000

Passengers

Passengers

Linear (Passengers)

Passengers

Linear (Passengers)

Passenger Miles

Flown Depreciation SUMMARY OUTPUT

16,491,000,000 98,000,000


15,340,000,000 107,000,000 Multiple R 0.46439235

15,114,000,000 105,000,000 R Square 0.215660254


16,206,000,000 120,000,000 Standard Error 6823133.277

12,767,000,000 131,000,000 Observations 35

14,867,000,000 106,000,000

16,489,000,000 112,000,000 ANOVA

16,960,000,000 112,000,000 df

17,252,000,000 114,000,000 Regression 1

14,352,000,000 116,000,000 Residual 33

16,129,000,000 110,000,000 Total 34

18,041,000,000 110,000,000

16,412,000,000 108,000,000 Coefficients

16,255,000,000 104,000,000 Intercept 125530857.10406

18,735,000,000 105,000,000 Passenger Miles Flown -0.00102

19,922,000,000 104,000,000

18,239,000,000 102,000,000 Y= 186824822.92

18,112,000,000 99,000,000 No strong linear relationship

20,292,000,000 98,000,000 Depreciation accounts for only fixed cost

21,762,000,000 97,000,000 Fixed Cost Forecasted= 502,123,428.42$

20,033,000,000 95,000,000 Cost Reduced by 11%= 446,889,851.29$ 20,336,000,000 96,000,000

23,367,000,000 97,000,000

24,042,000,000 99,000,000

21,772,000,000 99,000,000

21,450,000,000 99,000,000

24,623,000,000 101,000,000

25,422,000,000 106,000,000

22,670,000,000 107,000,000

22,280,000,000 106,000,000

24,836,000,000 108,000,000

24,746,000,000 112,000,000

20,825,000,000 111,000,000


4.22423E+14 4.22423E+14 9.073604177 0.00494878

1.53632E+15 4.65551E+13

1.95874E+15

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%

6613619.42649 18.98066 0.00000 112075347.20935 138986366.99876 112075347.20935

0.00034 -3.01224 0.00495 -0.00172 -0.00033 -0.00172

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

0 10,000,000,000

Depreciation

Upper 95.0%

138986366.99876

-0.00033

10,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 30,000,000,000

Depreciation

Depreciation

Revenues Other Expenses SUMMARY OUTPUT

2,571,000,000 284,000,000


2,429,000,000 277,000,000 Multiple R 0.476152928

2,451,000,000 318,000,000 R Square 0.226721611


2,223,000,000 121,000,000 Standard Error 70685994.77

1,739,000,000 166,000,000 Observations 35

1,993,000,000 382,000,000

2,192,000,000 454,000,000 ANOVA

2,178,000,000 276,000,000 df

2,039,000,000 277,000,000 Regression 1

2,042,000,000 320,000,000 Residual 33

2,216,000,000 91,000,000 Total 34

2,365,000,000 250,000,000

2,247,000,000 455,000,000 Coefficients

2,307,000,000 304,000,000 Intercept 144801168.14111

2,553,000,000 279,000,000 Revenues 0.05926

2,602,000,000 287,000,000

2,437,000,000 278,000,000

2,505,000,000 316,000,000

2,857,000,000 280,000,000

3,001,000,000 282,000,000

2,845,000,000 305,000,000

2,947,000,000 293,000,000

3,507,000,000 323,000,000

3,518,000,000 313,000,000

3,156,000,000 333,000,000 Quarters 1

3,179,000,000 340,000,000

2009 11% Other

Expenses Reduction 320,325,626.77$

3,710,000,000 357,000,000 2008 Other Expenses 356,000,000

3,820,000,000 357,000,000

3,523,000,000 328,000,000

3,570,000,000 356,000,000

4,044,000,000 427,000,000

4,072,000,000 461,000,000

3,471,000,000 372,000,000


4.83435E+16 4.83435E+16 9.675445822 0.003835676

1.64885E+17 4.99651E+15

2.13228E+17

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

54392009.55427 2.66218 0.01190 34139792.64395

0.01905 3.11054 0.00384 0.02050

Y=144801168.14111+.05926(X)

Forecasted Revenues

$ 2,962,000,000

$ 2,767,000,000

$ 2,947,000,000

$ 2,462,000,000

2 3 4 Total

308,770,167.82$ 319,436,745.32$ 290,696,244.83$ 1,239,228,784.74$

427,000,000 461,000,000 372,000,000 1,616,000,000.00$

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

255462543.63828 34139792.64395 255462543.63828

0.09802 0.02050 0.09802

Remember to note in memo the reduction in fixed cost that should be implemented

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

450,000,000

500,000,000

0 4,000,000,000

Other Expenses

Other Expenses

Linear (Other Expenses)

SUMMARY OUTPUT



R Square 0.982562064



Observations 35

ANOVA

df SS MS

Regression 1 6.3398E+17 6.3398E+17

Residual 34 1.12515E+16 3.30927E+14

Total 35 6.45232E+17

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 0 #N/A #N/A

Flights 1652.696052 37.75905147 43.76953306

Aircraft Maintenance=1652.696052(number of flights)

Quarter 1 2 3

2009 Forcasted Maintence Cost 113,043,773.67 113,043,773.67 113,043,773.67

2008 Maintanence Cost 159,000,000 167,000,000 152,000,000

F Significance F

1915.772025 8.26631E-31

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%


1.74594E-31 1575.960426 1729.431677 1575.96 1729.432

76,719

4 Total 76,096

113,043,773.67 452,175,094.68 78,599

135,000,000 613,000,000.00$ 76,000

76,854

68399.62

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

0 50000000 100000000

100000000 150000000 200000000

#REF!

#REF!

Linear (#REF!)

2008 2009

Revenues 15,157,000,000.00$ 11,138,000,000.00$

Projected Operating cost:

Salaries and wages 2,958,000,000.00$ 2,508,738,221.42$

Aircraft fuel & related taxes 4,905,000,000.00$ 3,302,992,746.09$

Aircraft rentals 977,000,000.00$ 961,540,116.60$

Landing fees 852,000,000.00$ 737,632,495.69$

Aircraft maintenance & repairs 613,000,000.00$ 452,175,094.68$

Depreciation & amortization 437,000,000.00$ 446,889,851.29$ Distribution costs 717,000,000.00$ 481,786,046.04$

Passenger services 407,000,000.00$ 358,868,577.64$

Regional capacity purchases 2,073,000,000.00$ 1,654,033,040.21$

Other expenses 1,616,000,000.00$ 290,696,244.83$

Total operating cost 15,555,000,000.00$ 11,195,352,434.49$

Expected profit(loss) (398,000,000.00)$ (57,352,434.49)$

Difference 2008 to 2009 Further Cost Reductions Difference

11,138,000,000.00$

449,261,778.58$ 2,433,476,074.78$ 75,262,146.64

1,602,007,253.91$ 3,302,992,746.09$

15,459,883.40$ 961,540,116.60$

114,367,504.31$ 737,632,495.69$

160,824,905.32$ 452,175,094.68$

(9,889,851.29)$ 446,889,851.29$

235,213,953.96$ 481,786,046.04$

48,131,422.36$ 340,925,148.75$ 17,943,428.88

418,966,959.79$ 1,654,033,040.21$

1,325,303,755.17$ 290,696,244.83$

4,359,647,565.51$ 11,102,146,858.96$

35,853,141.04$

*To forecast number of flights we used the average number of flights from the last four quarters and reduced this by 11 percent

number of flights=68399.32

*To forecast number of flights we used the average number of flights from the last four quarters and reduced this by 11 percent

Documents

Regression Final Final