Register entries/exits and demographic flows: some comparisons

for statistical aggregates

Caterina Viviano

18th Roundtable

Beijing, China October 2004

ISTAT

Issue:Verify differences in the production

of demographic statistics using registration and deregistration instead of identifying the real births

and deaths by the harmonised methodology

Contents:• BD methodology• Indicators comparison:

• birth rate• gross turnover• net turnover

• Main outcomes

ISTAT

Eurostat BD project aims to harmonise methodology to obtain comparable statistics

BD methodology is already operative in participating EU countries Developed internal procedures are costly and complex

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BD methodology -summary

Purpose: identify the real new enterprise births and deaths

Id process for births:

step 0 - Population of active enterprises in year t: P(t)• source of data: BR• units: legal units•active units: employment/turnover or other national method

ISTAT

step 1 - The new enterprises (entries) in year t

• subset of Pop(t)• need of Pop(t-1) • need of Pop(t-2) for elimination of reactivations

E1 = new enterprises= units not active in t-2 not active in t-1 active in t

E1 entries without reactivated units

ISTAT

step 2 - Other creations: events of structural changes (merger, demerger, take-off, split-off)• need of updating information through administrative data and manual profiling activities

E2 = E1 - Eev

E2 entries without reactivated units and without events

ISTAT

step 3 - Other creations: Links for continuity

(change of legal status, inheritance successions, partnerships)• Continuity rules: 3 id variables (name, location, sector)•name & location•name & sector•sector & location

Tool: Record linkage process

E3 = E2 - Econt

ISTAT

E3 entries without reactivated units and without events and without creations for continuity

E3 identifies the real births

E1352,000

E2350,000

E3295,000

Pop(2002)*3,833,000

*Nace sectors from C to K

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Problematic areas1. Identification of active population - impact on E1-

• methodology to determine the status of activity

2. Identification of events -impact on E2 -• monitor of large enterprise

• skilled staff

• updated administrative information.

3. Continuity rules: identification and assignment • weakness of RL automatic procedures

• links with high risk of errors

• continuity concepts limitations

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Analysis of some demographic indicators

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Indicators calculated on the basis of the three subset of data E1, E2 and E3

BOX-plot 1: Enterprise birth rates (%) for economic activity, year 2002

4.96.57.7

10.8

14.4

4.96.47.7

10.8

14.3

3.85.06.1

9.3

12.0

3.8

5.8

7.8

9.8

11.8

13.8

15.8

17.8

E1 E2 E3

Enterprise birth rate = %PopjE where j=1,2,3

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BOX-plot 2: Enterprise birth rates (%) for economic activity in terms of

persons employed

1.22.4

4.0

5.9

8.9

0.31.4

2.5

5.7

8.1

0.21.01.8

4.7

6.5

0.2

2.2

4.2

6.2

8.2

E1 E2 E3

Ent. birth rate (empl.) = %E

jE

Pop

E where j=1,2,3

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Results - enterprise birth rate comparisons

Enterprise

•Variability: the same

•shape: the same

•median: 25% less from E1 to E3

Employment

From E1 to E2:

• Variability: increases

• sectors highly concentrated move from Q3 to Q1

ISTAT

0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0

Industry

Construction

Trade

Services

Total

Pop E1 E2 E3

Average size

Enterprise average size = E

EjE where j=1,2,3

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Figure 2 - Enterprise gross turnover rate - year 2001

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

E1 E2 E3

Ent. gross turnover rate = %Pop

jU

jE

where j=1,2,3

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Figure 3 - Employment gross turnover rate - year 2001

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

18,0

20,0

E1 E2 E3

gross turnover rate (empl.)= %E

EE

PopjUjE

where j=1,2,3

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Ranking of economic sectors

E1 E2

rent=0.92rempl=0.81

E1 E2 E1 E2

rent =0.96rempl=0.81

rent =0.96rempl=0.98

Rank-order correlation index r-spearman

Towards lower ranks Towards upper ranks

(enterprise) hotels (employment) research

(employment) coke,

transport equipment, energy

ISTAT

Papercokerubbertransport equ.energy

Transportpost&telecomfinancial int.

Hotelsretail trade

Gross turnover rate:changes in employment

Reduction both in level and trenddue to events

Reduction in level due to events

Reduction in level due to continuity

Figure 4 - Enterprise net turnover rate - year 2001

-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,0

Industry Construction Trade Services Total

E1 E2 E3

%Pop

jU

jE

where j=1,2,3

Enterprise net turnover rate =

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Figure 5 - Employment net turnover rate - year 2001

-10,0

-8,0

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

Industry Construction Trade Services Total

E1 E2 E3

Ent. net turnover rate (empl.) =

%E

EE

PopjUjE

where j=1,2,3

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Summary

BD methodology (continuity rules):

with reference to enterprises:

• impacts on levels of indicators

•does not produce significant changes in the economic activity distribution

•produces significant changes in the net turnover rate

with reference to employment:

• impacts on levels of indicators, on the sectors’ distribution and produces very significant changes in the net turnover rate due to events

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Results demonstrate the importance to concentrate efforts in the identification of mergers and

demergers

the necessity of

•more updated information on events •to increase the manual controls activities above all in presence of a large birth or death.

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Conclusion