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Regionalisation
Volkmar HartjeTechnical University of Berlin, Institute for Landscape and Environmental Planning,
Berlin, Germany
GLOWA-ElbeGLOWA Status Conference 19 May 2005 Cologne
GLOWA ELBE PROJECT: REGIONALISATION
Regionalisation
GLOWA ELBE PROJECT: REGIONALISATION
PROJECTION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE TO
THE RIVER BASIN SCALE
Project Leader: Professor Dr. V. Hartje, TU Berlin
Regionalisation
Overview
I. Approach: regionalisation of socio-economic development in GLOWA Elbe II
II. Application: Agricultural sector with results from GLOWA Elbe I
III. Outlook
Regionalisation
Integrative Methodological Approach
1
(B) Policy options
Analyses of problems, conflicts,expressed needs, targets,...
Participation
• Public
• Policy
• Agents
• Agencies
• NGO’s
• others
Stakeholder acceptance
YESNODecision processes
Further exploration
2Determination of multiple criteria and indicators
3 Multidisciplinary impact analysisfor each scenario
4 Evaluation of results:Benefit-cost analysis, Multi-criteria analysis
and Equity analysis
Derivation of scenarios for future development, considering:
(A) External driving forces/ Boundary conditions
Regionalisation
Context within GLOWA Elbe Project
Project I: Integration and Coordination Integrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA)
Regional actors, decision bodies
Frame of Development Project II: Regionalisation of Global Change
Glo
bal
Ch
ang
eM
ana
gem
ent
leve
l
Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis
Management-options
Impact-analysis
Evaluation
Project IV: Conflict field
Surface Water Quality
Nutrient entry
Cost-efficiency analysis
Eco-hydrological Indicators
Socioeconomic Indicators
Project III: Conflict field
Surface Water Availability
Run-off regulation
Multi-criteria analysis
Eco-hydrological Indicators
Socioeconomic Indicators
Project advisory board
Regionalisation
Water management
(WBALMO)
Water use
Energy / Mining
(KASIM)
Households / business
(HAUSHALT WASSER)
Industry
(INDUSTRIE WASSER)
Agriculture / Irrigation
Wetlands
(MODAM)
Development of water technologies
Inflow
Evaporation
Irrigation
Wetlands
Water suppliers
Industry
Mining
Power plants
Nutrient load
(MONERIS)
Point source: Industry
X2
X4
Y2
Y7
Y6
Y3
Y5
Z1
Z2
Z9
Z6
Z7
Z8
Z5
Regionalisation of global change
Future climate
(STAR)
Development of agricultural sector
(WATSIM-RAUMIS)
Economics and demography
(REGE)
Y1
Y8
X13
Z3
Z4
Minimal flow for conservation
Transport on inland waterways
Point source: Sewage plant
Diffuse Source: Sealed surfaces
Diffuse Source: Erosion
Diffuse Source: Atmospheric Deposition
Diffuse Source: Drainage
Diffuse Source: Surface denudation
Diffuse Source: Groundwater
Diffuse Source / Sink: Wetlands
Land use and regional water balance
Hydrological cycle and crop yields
(SWIM)
Land use
(LAND USE SCANNER)
X1
X15
X3
Development of energy sector
(IKARUS-KASIM)
Y4
Z1
Transport on inland waterways
Regionalisation
I. Approach
Regionalisation of socio-economic development in GLOWA Elbe II
Regionalisation
GLOWA Elbe methodological approach
Two stage regionalisation: Model based assessment of effects of global change on a regional
level using consistent scenarios of global change Subsequent projection to dimensions of river basin and water users
Modular concept: Application of well established modelling approaches for policy
analysis in specific sectors for integrated water resources assessment New development of currently missing modules e.g. related to
estimating water demand functions as required
Primary integration: Consistent typology of water users, nutrient emitters and hydrological
response units Consistent definition of spatial and temporal resolutions
Regionalisation
Re
gio
n
Two-stage modular approach to regionalisation
Glo
bal
Riv
er B
asin
Economic & demographic development
REGE WATERTECH
Water technology development
Water balanceWBalMo
NutrientsMONERIS
Water infrastructure
Technology
Water demand
IKARUS / KASIM
Energy sectorAgricultural production
RAUMIS
Land use & population
Land Use Scanner
Regionalisation
Riv
er B
asin
Water balanceWBalMo
NutrientsMONERIS
Example : Water demand
Glo
bal
Re
gio
n
Land Use Scanner
Water technology
Economic development
Water infrastructure
Technology
Water demandPopulation & settlements
Spatial claims population
Economy & demographics
REGE
Spatial claimsagriculture
Regionalisation
GIS based primary integration: typology and topology
Urban Systems
Soils / Geology
Landcover
Hydrology
Climate
Hydrological response unit
concept
Water user concept
Regionalisation
Principal functionality of the Land Use Scanner
Local suitabilityCurrent land use
Physical suitability
Policy maps
Distance relations
Future land use
Allocation module:Doubly constrained
logit model
& &&Global change scenarios
Regional Claims
Regionalisation
Water Demand: Urban water demand
Types of household water demand
Techno-logical factors
Impact of technological change on household
water demand between t0 and t1
(WATER-INFRASTRUCTURE)
Database: micro household survey on water demand in t0
Type 1
Type 2
Type 3
Type k
…
Water demand Type 1
Water demand Type 2
Water demand Type 3
…
Water demand Type k
Household and
population factors
Population and household structure
in a city/districtat time t1
(REGE)
Impact factors
Impact factors of water demand, t0
Water demand of the city or
the district in
t1
Regionalisation
Water supply infrastructure
Freistaat SachsenStatusbericht Abwasser 2002Dienstbezirk StUFA Chemnitz
AbwasserbeseitigungspflichtigeZweckverbände und Gemeinden/Kommunale KläranlagenSchematische Darstellung. Datenbestand 2001
Inbetriebnahme, letzte Rekonstruktion oder ErweiterungBis ab1990 1991
Größenklassen (nach Einwohnerwerten)
Mechanische Reinigung
Mechanisch-biologische Reinigung
Mechanisch-biologische Reinigung mit N-Eliminierung*)
Mechanisch-biologische Reinigung mit P-EliminierungMechanisch-biologische Reinigung mit N*)- und P-Eliminierung
*)Größenklassen bis 10.000 Einwohnerwerte ggf. nur Ammoniumsticksotff-Reduzierung
50 bis< 1000
1000bis5000
> 5000bis10.000
>10.000bis100.000
>100.000
Regionalisation
II. Application
Agricultural sector with results from GLOWA Elbe I
Regionalisation
Regionalisation
Example: Agricultural sector
Glo
bal
Re
gio
nR
iver
Bas
in
Temperature &
precipitation
Land use
Nutrient overload
Agricultural markets &
trade policy
WATSIM
Pricescenarios
Output relations
Agricultural production
RAUMIS
Yieldvariation
ECHAM4/OPYC3
STAR
Climate
Land Use Scanner
Land use
Land share, crop rotation & Nutrient balances
Other land claims
Water balanceSWIM
Nutrients MONERIS
Regionalisation
Regionalisation
Climate: change in precipitation
Changes in precipitation: comparing 2046/2055 to 1951/2000
Difference of annual sum [mm]
Regionalisation
Regionalisation
Climate induced change of yield potential
Winter wheat
On average = - 13 %
Silage maize
On average = + 9 %
Regionalisation
Regionalisation
Economic change: Scenario for the agricultural sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
OECD
FAPRI
WATSIM
US$/t
Weizen 1)
Mais 2)
1) HRW No. 1 fob Golf. - 2) Yellow No. 1 fob Golf.
World market price for grain
Policy option: Partial liberalisation of EU Common Agricultural Policy
Complete decoupling of direct payments
No production obligations (Cross-Compliance)
No backing of prices
Regionalisation
Regionalisation
Implications for agricultural land use
Land set-aside
Partial Liberalisation
2020
% of agricultural area
less than 5
5 - 15
15 - 30
30 - 40
more than 40
H. Gömann, C. Julius und P. Kreins;
RAUMIS 8/2003
Regionalisation
Regionalisation
Nutrient Balance Surplus
Partial Liberalisation
2020
Changes in Nitrogen Balance
kg N / hectare of
agricultural land
< - 10
> - 10 up to - 8
> - 8 up to - 6
> - 6 up to - 4
< - 4
Regionalisation
Regionalisation
III. Outlook
Regionalisation
GLOWA Elbe Regionalisation Approach: Expected Output
Quantitative rationing / Measuresfor reduction of emissions
Alternative options for action
Water useNutrient emissions
Scenarios of socio-economic development (water demand / emissions)
Past Future
Water supply Stochastics + Scenarios of change
Climate
Land use
Regionalisation
Favourable Policy Context: Water Framework Directive
1. The EU Water Framework Directive requires River Basin Management Plans and Operational Programs of Measure on a river basin level to be operational by 2009.
2. As a basis, long term forecasts of demand and supply for water in the river basin have to be taken into account.
3. There is demand for research results from the users on a river basin level.
4. The methodology is further refined by the WATECO group as part of the common implementation strategy.
Regionalisation
Expected research contributions
1. Methodology to prepare scenarios
2. Links in modular model structure
3. Link administrative units to scale of water infrastructure
4. Modelling industrial and residential water demand
5. Generate water typology
Regionalisation
Thank You
For Your Attention!
WWW.GLOWA-Elbe.de