Regional Profile: Central—East North Centralagr.gc.ca/resources/prod/Internet-Internet/MISB-DGSIM/ATS-SEA/PD… · NOVEMBER 2012 Top Canadian Agri Regional Profile: CENTRAL —East

International Markets Bureau

AMERICAN EATING TRENDS REPORT

Regional Profile: CENTRAL—East North Central

NOVEMBER 2012

INTRODUCTION The United States (U.S.) is a diverse country comprised of distinct regions, each with their own unique consumption habits. The U.S. market, made up of almost 315 million consumers, is generally broken down into nine different regions illustrated in the map provided: Pacific; Mountain; West North Central; West South Central; East North Central; East South Central; Mid-Atlantic; South Atlantic; and New England. Canadian food and beverage exporters can increase their likelihood of success in penetrating the U.S. market by understanding regional distinctions and positioning their products to best capture the potential opportunities. This report is one of a series of nine U.S. regional profile reports. OVERVIEW The central U.S. is comprised of the West North Central and East North Central regions. The East North Central region covers the states of Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio. The regional population of 46.5 million represents approximately 15% of the total U.S. population and is projected to see a 4.3% increase from 2010 to 2020. The regional demographic profile is very similar to the U.S. overall. In the region, 54% of households have three to five members, 27% have two members, and 11% have one member. The largest ethnic group after White / non-Hispanic is Black / non-Hispanic at 12% of the regional population. The Hispanic population is at seven per cent regionally compared to 16% for the total U.S. The region has a similar income breakdown to the U.S. as a whole, although there are slightly fewer households earning above US$100,000, at 18% regionally versus 20% for the total U.S. Compared to the national average per capita income of US$41,663, most East North Central states reported lower incomes per capita, with Wisconsin reporting US$40,073; Indiana US$35,550; Michigan US$36,533; and Ohio US$37,791. Illinois was the exception, reporting an average income of US$44,140 (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).

Unless otherwise stated, all of the information in this report was derived from the NPD Group’s National Eating Trends database, updated to November 2010, and reflects the eatings (defined by NPD as the number of times any particular category / item is eaten by an individual in a specified location or time period) of a product at home or carried away from home. NPD monitors the eating habits and attitudes of American consumers by surveying 5000 individuals reporting on 14-days continuous consumption of all meals and snacks.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: NDP Group.

NOVEMBER 2012


TRADE Canada has long been the number one exporter of meat, grain mill products, bakery goods, and fats and oils to the U.S. As an established exporter and neighbour to the U.S., Canadian agri-food exporters have a distinct advantage over international competitors. Nonetheless, Canadians face strong competition in the U.S. from Mexican exporters. Canadian agri-food exporters also face competition from local and national food manufacturers, as well as large multinational manufacturers (Agri-Food Trade Service). Total Canadian agri-food exports to the U.S. in 2011 amounted to C$22.1 billion, while imports from the U.S.

totalled C$19.5 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of C$2.6 billion. Combined Canadian agri-food exports to the East North Central and West North Central regions totalled C$6

billion (Statistics Canada). Specifically, Canada exported C$3.9 billion and imported C$3.3 billion worth of agri-food products from the East

North Central region, including refined and crude canola oil (C$244.5 million and C$176.9 million, respectively), and communion wafers (C$213.3 million) (Statistics Canada).

PAGE 2

Sources: NPD analysis, CIA World Factbook, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Regional Demographics

East North Central Total U.S.

Population 46.5 million (2011) 313.8 million (2012)

Ethnic Breakdown

White / Non-Hispanic

Hispanic

Black / Non-Hispanic

Asian

79%

7%

12%

3%

67%

16%

12%

4%

Household Income

$100k+

$75k to <$100k

$50k to <$75k

$25k to <$50k

$10k to <$25k

$0 to <$10k

18%

13%

20%

25%

17%

8%

20%

12%

22%

15%

17%

13%

Household Size

6+ members

3-5 members

2 members

1 member

9%

54%

27%

11%

10%

53%

26%

10%

NOVEMBER 2012


REGIONAL EATING TRENDS*

EATING PREFERENCES East North Central consumers ate more frozen meals compared to the U.S. as a whole, and

mainly during lunch and dinner occasions. Consumers in the region were also more likely to consume frozen finfish and shellfish than fresh seafood. However, they were more likely to consume lean, fresh meats over frozen.

The region also reported more organic meals consumed compared to the U.S. as a whole, at

24 meals per capita annually for the region compared to 21 meals for the total U.S. The region consumed more organic beverages than the U.S. as a whole, reporting 11 and nine organic beverages consumed per capita, respectively.

EATING VENUES Away-From-Home

Compared to the U.S. as a whole, the East North Central region reported fewer away-from-home meals. On average, consumers in the region ate 68 away-from-home meals at commercial restaurants per capita a year; in the U.S. as a whole, that number was 71.

The number of away-from-home meals that were eaten at home, i.e. takeout, was 35 meals per capita in the

region, while the national average was 36 meals. In-Home / Carried-From-Home The region reported 924 in-home meal occasions per capita on average in a year, while the national

average was 927 occasions. Carried-from-home meal occasions averaged 72 per capita in the region and 65 for the U.S. as a whole.

*Meal occasions are broken down into number of meals eaten per capita on average in a year, updated to November 2010.

PAGE 3

Source: Statistics Canada.

Top Canadian Agri-Food Exports to the East North Central Region—2011 C$ millions

Canola, colza oil and its fractions, low erucic acid, refined 244.5

Communion wafers, empty cachets for pharmaceutical use and similar products and bakers' wares, not elsewhere specified

213.3

Canola, colza oil and its fractions, low erucic acid, crude 176.9

Food preparations, not elsewhere specified 173.3

Sweet biscuits 165.2

Swine cuts, fresh or chilled, not elsewhere specified 160.8

Sugar confectionery, not elsewhere specified (including white chocolate), not containing cocoa

156.4

Potatoes prepared or preserved other than by vinegar or acetic acid, frozen 128.3

Tomatoes, fresh or chilled 127.2

Wheat, not elsewhere specified and meslin 122.9

NOVEMBER 2012


The top ten in-home / carried-from-home food items were fruit, sandwiches, vegetables, ready-to-eat cereal, salty snacks, bread, potatoes, salads, poultry, and eggs / omelets. Fruit, ready-to-eat cereal, and bread were especially popular in the region and consumed significantly above average U.S. consumption levels. On the other hand, consumption of vegetables, salads, poultry, and eggs / omelets fell below the national average.

EATING OCCASIONS Breakfast The number of in-home breakfast occasions per capita in the region and the U.S. overall

was 285 and 284 meals, respectively. Carried-from-home breakfast meals reported in the region and the U.S. as a whole were similar, at 10 and 11 meals per capita, respectively. The top five in-home meal items were ready-to-eat cereal, bread, fruit, eggs / omelets, and hot cereal. Of the top foods for breakfast, ready-to-eat cereal, toaster pastries, doughnuts and bagels stood out as being consumed at greater levels in the region than nationally. Bacon and biscuits, on the other hand, while popular, were consumed less compared to the national average.

The top breakfast beverages in the region were coffee, fruit juice, and milk. Top beverages in the region that

saw consumption levels exceed the national average were chocolate milk, milk alternatives, fruit drinks, and vegetable juice. Coffee and hot chocolate were top beverages regionally, but consumed at levels below the national average.

The number of away-from-home breakfast occasions at restaurants in the region was similar to the U.S. overall,

at seven meals per capita in the region and eight for the U.S. as a whole. Away-from-home breakfast meals eaten at home were the same, at five meals per capita.

The top away-from-home foods were eggs / omelets, sandwiches, pancakes / waffles / French toast,

potatoes and bread. Top away-from-home breakfast items for the region that were consumed above national average consumption levels were eggs / omelets, potatoes, bread, sausage, and sweet muffins. Sandwiches and biscuits were consumed at levels below the national average.

While many of the top foods remain popular, some are seeing a drop in market penetration as

others gain a growing share of the regional market.

PAGE 4

Market Penetration—Breakfast Meals

Market Penetration In-Home / Carried-From-Home Away-From-Home

Increasing Fruit Ready-to-eat cereal Pancakes / waffles / French toast Bagels

Yogurt

Sweet muffins

Vegetables

Sandwiches

Biscuits

Salads

Declining Salads

Salty snacks

Sausage

Biscuits

Doughnuts

Potatoes

Sweet rolls / Danish / coffee cake

Doughnuts

Eggs / omelets

Bacon

NOVEMBER 2012


Lunch

The East North Central region reported fewer in-home lunch occasions compared to the U.S., at 173 meals per capita versus 176 for the U.S. as a whole. However, there were more carried-from-home lunch occasions in the region, at 46 occasions per capita compared to the national average of 40 per capita.

The top in-home lunch items were sandwiches, fruit, salty snacks, vegetables and soup.

Popular items that were consumed above average U.S. consumption levels included yogurt, fruit, potatoes, cookies, and cheese dishes.

Soft drinks and milk were the top lunch beverages, with milk and milk alternatives being consumed at

significantly higher levels regionally compared to the national average. Tea consumption in the region, on the other hand, fell significantly below average U.S. consumption levels.

The region reported fewer away-from-home lunch occasions at restaurants, at 26 meals per capita in the region

versus 29 meals for the U.S. as a whole. Away-from-home meals eaten at home were the same, at 10 meals per capita.

The top away-from-home lunch items were sandwiches, potatoes, salads, vegetables and poultry. Top lunch

items that were consumed at higher levels than the national average were cookies and fruit. Seafood, beef and soup were consumed at lower levels.

Dinner

The number of in-home dinner occasions reported in the region was 266 meals per capita on average, while the U.S. as a whole reported 270 meals. The number of carried-from-home meal occasions reported in the region and the U.S. overall were six and five meals per capita, respectively.

The top dinner items were poultry, sandwiches, beef, Italian dishes and pizza. Pizza was a popular dinner item

and consumed at levels above the national average. Vegetables and Mexican dishes were popular items for dinner but consumed at levels below the national average.

The top beverages for the dinner occasion were milk, soft drinks and tea. Milk and milk alternatives were

popular and consumed at levels above the national average. Tea, seltzers, and vegetable juice were popular in the region but consumption fell below national average levels.

PAGE 5

Market Penetration—Lunch Meals


Increasing Fruit Pizza

Homemade / mix variety dishes

Yogurt Salty snacks

Fruit Chili Bacon

Crackers

Bagels

Declining Hot dogs / corn dogs

Seafood

Pies

Ham / ham lunchmeat Bread

Seafood

Salads

Vegetables

Beef Potatoes

NOVEMBER 2012


Away-from-home restaurant meals were the same in the region and for the U.S. as a whole, averaging 30 meals per capita per year. Away-from-home meals eaten in home were also the same, at 17 meals per capita.

The top away-from-home foods were potatoes, sandwiches, salads, poultry and vegetables. Ice cream / frozen

novelties and fruit were also popular dinner meal items and consumed more in the region, while beef and rice were consumed less compared to average U.S. consumption levels.

Side Dishes

Vegetables were the top side dish in the region and consumed mostly fresh. Consumers in the region had a tendency to eat fewer canned vegetable side dishes compared to the U.S. as a whole.

For dinner, the top in-home / carried-from-home dinner side dishes were vegetables,

potatoes, salads, bread and rice. Fruit was especially popular as a side dish in the region. Biscuits and rice were popular but consumed less often compared to average U.S. consumption levels. In the region, side dishes, such as salads, bread, fruit, macaroni and cheese, and salty snacks saw an increase in popularity, while crackers, Italian dishes, cheese, biscuits, and sauced / flavoured macaroni / noodles saw a decline.

Snacks Snacking patterns do not differ greatly between the region and the U.S. as a whole, with more snacking

occasions occurring in the evening than afternoon or morning. For the morning snack occasion, fruit, salty snacks, cookies, ice cream / frozen novelties, candy / gum, crackers, cakes, yogurt, bars, and doughnuts registered as top snacks. Salty snacks and cookies were consumed at higher levels in the region compared to the national average, while doughnuts, pudding / custard / tapioca and pies fell below national average consumption levels.

In the afternoon, the most popular snacks were salty snacks, fruit, cookies, candy / gum, and ice cream / frozen

novelties. Vegetables and cookies were consumed more often in the region, while cakes and ready-to-eat cereal were eaten less frequently compared to national average consumption levels.

For the evening snack occasion, salty snacks, ice cream / frozen novelties, fruit,

cookies, and candy / gum topped the list. Yogurt, ready-to-eat cereal and crackers were consumed at higher levels compared to the national average, while brownies and pudding / custard / tapioca fell below average U.S. consumption levels.


PAGE 6

Market Penetration—Dinner Meals


Increasing Italian dishes

Pizza

Homemade / mix variety dish

Mexican dishes

Sandwiches

Ice cream / frozen novelties

Fruit Italian dishes

Brownies

Pizza

Declining Bread

Soup

Other meats

Potatoes

Chili

Pork

Sandwiches

Potatoes

Beef Poultry

NOVEMBER 2012


REGIONAL COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE Grocery Retail The average U.S. consumer eats 300 foods that are a private label or retailer-branded item per year. In the

region, consumption of both private, e.g., Kirkland, Lucerne, and Great Value, and retailer-branded, e.g., Walmart and Kroger, products is higher than average U.S. levels. The region and the U.S. reported 308 and 303 eating occasions with private label and retailer-branded products, respectively. Specifically, East North Central consumers chose retailer-branded products more than 72% of the time over private label products.

Top Grocery Retailers / Wholesalers in the East North Central Region**

** Breakdown based on sphere of distribution, not by geographic boundaries, and therefore does not match NPD regions exactly. The percentages of market share are estimates.


PAGE 7

Source: Shelby Report of the Midwest, March 2012.

Top Five Grocery Retailers in U.S. (2010)

Company Sales (US$ billions)

1. Walmart 179.7

2. Kroger 72.9

3. Walgreens 62.0

4. CVS 54.2

5. Costco 36.9

Source: Planet Retail Global Retail Rankings 2011.

Illinois / Indiana

Key Cities: Chicago, Gary

Company Number of Stores Market Share (%)

Jewel-Osco 195 31.6

Central Grocers 304 16.2

Walmart 59 11.2

Dominick’s 78 8.2

Meijer 21 4.5

Kroger 37 4.1

Aldi 177 4.0

Whole Foods 17 2.9

SuperTarget 15 2.3

Spartan Stores 16 1.5

Trader Joe’s 17 1.5

Dearborn Wholesale 42 1.1

NOVEMBER 2012



PAGE 8

Source of Both: Shelby Report of the Midwest, March 2012.

Michigan

Key Cities: Detroit, Ann Arbor, Flint, Saginaw


Kroger 121 28.0

Meijer 51 25.0

Spartan 167 15.2

Walmart 36 12.4

Nash Finch 56 4.3

Save-A-Lot 41 2.8

Busch’s 15 2.1

Supervalu 25 1.5

Aldi 34 1.3

Whole Foods 5 1.3

Western Michigan

Key Cities: Grand Rapids, Lansing, Kalamazoo, Traverse City


Meijer 50 37.8

Spartan Stores 190 27.1

Walmart 36 16.9

Kroger 13 3.9

Harding’s 28 3.2

Save-A-Lot 44 3.0

Nash Finch 30 2.4

GFS Marketplace 22 1.2

NOVEMBER 2012



PAGE 9


Wisconsin / Upper Michigan

Key Cities: Milwaukee, Madison, Eau Claire, Marquette


Roundy’s 123 27.9

Walmart 64 21.5

Supervalu 150 18.4

Piggly Wiggly Midwest 98 9.9

Certco 36 9.1

Woodman’s 10 7.6

Festival Foods 16 5.7

Nash Finch 29 2.1

Aldi 54 2.0

Ohio

Key Cities: Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Youngstown


Giant Eagle 128 44.5

Walmart 27 16.5

Nash Finch 66 14.0

Marc’s 42 8.9

Supervalu 25 6.5

Acme Fresh Market 16 5.0

Save-A-Lot 57 4.4

Aldi 82 3.9

Heinen’s 17 3.3

Whole Foods 2 1.1

NOVEMBER 2012



PAGE 10


Indiana / Ohio

Key Cities: Indianapolis, Fort Wayne


Walmart 66 33.9

Kroger 118 28.7

Marsh 87 11.9

Meijer 20 10.1

Jay C 22 2.3

SuperTarget 6 2.3

Aldi 44 1.9

Supervalu 22 1.9

Nash Finch 13 1.1

Save-A-Lot 19 1.1

Ohio / West Virginia / Kentucky

Key Cities: Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus, Toledo, Huntington


Kroger 244 42.0

Walmart 116 22.4

Meijer 42 8.1

Nash Finch 146 5.8

Giant Eagle 29 5.0

Supervalu 53 3.3

Remke’s 14 1.7

Save-A-Lot 49 1.7

Aldi 79 1.5

NOVEMBER 2012


Foodservice

An aging population, smaller households, time pressures associated with dual-income households, and growing demand for healthy meals, are having an impact on the U.S. foodservice sector. Major consumer trends currently affecting the foodservice market include: quick and convenient meals, healthy and organic options, ethnic cuisine, at-home meal replacements and locally-sourced produce (Agri-Food Trade Service).

Top 20 Foodservice Operations in the U.S. (2010)


PAGE 11

Source: Planet Retail Global Retail Rankings, 2011.

Company Sales (US$ billions) Number of Outlets

1. McDonald’s 31.8 14,190

2. Yum Brands 20.1 19,829

3. Wendy’s / Arby’s Group 13.3 9,643

4. Subway 10.5 24,043

5. Starbucks 9.9 11,213

6. Burger King 9.5 7,358

7. Darden 7.5 1,820

8. DineEquity 5.9 3,334

9. Dunkin’ Brand 5.9 10,600

10. Brinker 5.7 1,535

11. OSI Restaurant Partners 4.3 1,330

12. Sonic 4.1 3,664

13. Chick-fil-A 3.6 1,530

14. CKE Restaurants 3.4 2,941

15. Domino’s Pizza 3.2 5,554

16. Panera Bread 3.1 1,450

17. Cracker Barrel 2.5 598

18. Denny’s Corporation 2.5 1,609

19. Jack in the Box 2.3 2,731

20. Papa John’s 2.2 2,887

NOVEMBER 2012


Top 15 Foodservice Distributors in the U.S. (Annual sales of $150 million or more)

Canadian exporters can contact trade commissioners located at the Canadian consulates in Chicago and Detroit for more information on distributors in each region. Detroit Consulate General of Canada Territory: Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio 600 Renaissance Center, Suite 1100 Detroit, MI 482-43-1798 Tel: (313) 567-2340 Fax: (313) 567-2164 E-mail: [email protected] Chicago Consulate General of Canada Territory: Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Quad-Cities portion of Iowa Two Prudential Plaza 180 North Stetson Avenue, Suite 2400 Chicago, IL 60601 Tel: (312) 616-1860 Fax: (312) 616-1878 E-mail: [email protected] Additional information on exporting to the U.S. can be found at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration web site at http://www.fda.gov/Food/InternationalActivities/Imports/default.htm. Listings of regional food distributors in the U.S. can be located online at the Anything4Restaurants web site at http://www.anything4restaurants.com/category/find-distributors/353.html.


PAGE 12

1. Sysco Corp 2. U.S. Foodservice 3. Performance Food Group 4. Gordon Food Service 5. Reinhart Foodservice 6. Maines Paper & Food Service Inc. 7. Services Group of America 8. Ben E. Keith Foods 9. Shamrock Foods Co. 10. Labatt Food Service 11. Cheney Brothers Inc. 12. IFH 13. Agar Supply Co. Inc. 14. Glazier Foods Co. 15. Merchant Foodservice

Source: Sunbelt Foodservice, January 2012.

NOVEMBER 2012

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (2012). The Government of Canada has prepared this report based on primary and secondary sources of information. Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information is accurate, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada assumes no liability for any actions taken based on the information contained herein. For more information, or to request additional copies or an alternate format of this publication, please email [email protected] or contact the International Markets Bureau - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1341 Baseline Road, Tower 5, 4th floor, Ottawa, ON Canada K1A 0C5


Top Foodservice Operations in the U.S. by Channel KEY RESOURCES Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Agri-Food Trade Service. United States. Retrieved September 9, 2012 from http://www.ats-sea.agr.gc.ca/info/info-amr-eng.htm. CIA World Factbook. United States. Retrieved September 9, 2012 from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html. The NPD Group. National Eating Trends database for the year ending 2010. Planet Retail. Global Retail Rankings. 2011. Retrieved September 27, 2012 from http://www.planetretail.net/presentations/foodserviceposter2011.pdf. Shelby Report of the Midwest. March 2012. Shelby Publishing Co., Inc. Statistics Canada. 2011. Sunbelt Foodservice. January 2012. Shelby Publishing Co., Inc. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2011. Retrieved September 9, 2012 from http://www.bea.gov/regional/bearfacts/.

PAGE 13

Source: Planet Retail Global Retail Rankings, 2011.

Quick Service

65 %

Full Service

26 %

Cafés

9 %

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Regional Profile: Central—East North Centralagr.gc.ca/resources/prod/Internet-Internet/MISB-DGSIM/ATS-SEA/PD… · NOVEMBER 2012 Top Canadian Agri Regional Profile: CENTRAL —East