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Regional Labour Market Intelligence Report
North Wales
The Welsh Government is seeking to expand and broaden the use of Labour Market Intelligence across Wales. Please visit our website: https://businesswales.gov.wales/skillsgateway/labour-market-intelligence If you require further information with respect to Labour Market Intelligence in the Welsh Government, please contact [email protected] August 2017
North Wales
Page 2 of 87
Table of contents
Chapter 1: Introduction ........................................................................................................ 5
Chapter 2: Economic performance ...................................................................................... 6
2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 6
2.2 Gross Value Added (GVA) ......................................................................................... 6
Table 2.1: Gross Value Added by measure, Welsh economic region and year ............ 7
Table 2.2: Gross Value Added by measure, Welsh economic region, Local Authority and year ........................................................................................................................ 8
Table 2.3: Gross Value Added by Welsh NUTS3 areas and industry ........................... 9
2.3 Earnings ................................................................................................................... 10
Table 2.4: Average, median, gross weekly earnings .................................................. 10
2.4 Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) .......................................................... 11
Table 2.5: Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) ........................................... 11
Table 2.6: Gross Disposable Household income by measure and Welsh economic region .......................................................................................................................... 12
Table 2.7: Active enterprises, business births and deaths, levels and rates ............... 13
2.5 Exports ..................................................................................................................... 14
Table 2.8: Value (special trade) of exports by product, sector and country (£m) ........ 14
Chapter 3: People – demographics, employment, unemployment and economic inactivity ........................................................................................................................................... 15
3.1 Employment & Unemployment ................................................................................. 15
Table 3.1: Employment and unemployment in Wales, levels and rates, aged 16 - 64 15
Table 3.2: Employment level by Welsh local area and year, aged 16 - 64 ................ 16
Table 3.3: Unemployment level by Welsh local area and year, aged 16 - 64 ............. 17
Table 3.4: Employment rate by Welsh local area and year, aged 16 - 64................... 18
Table 3.5: Unemployment rate by Welsh local area and year, aged 16 - 64 .............. 19
Table 3.6: Workplace employment by Welsh local areas and broad industry ............. 20
Table 3.7: Employment by Priority Sector and Local Authority ................................... 21
Table 3.8: Status of employed persons by Welsh local authority and measure, aged 16 - 64 ........................................................................................................................ 22
3.2 Claimant Counts ....................................................................................................... 23
Table 3.9: Claimant count by Welsh local area, variable and month (not seasonally adjusted) ..................................................................................................................... 24
Table 3.10: Claimant count by Local Authority, variable and month (not seasonally adjusted) ..................................................................................................................... 24
3.3 Benefits claimant counts .......................................................................................... 25
Table 3.11: Out-of-work benefit claimants, aged 16 - 64, by Welsh economic region and year ...................................................................................................................... 26
Table 3.12: Out-of-work benefit claimants by Welsh economic region and variable ... 27
3.4 Economic inactivity ................................................................................................... 28
Table 3.13: Economic activity, inactivity: levels and rates, including and excluding students, aged 16 – 64 ............................................................................................... 28
3.5 Population estimates, 2015 ...................................................................................... 29
Table 3.14: Population estimates by local authority and gender ................................. 29
3.6 Population projections .............................................................................................. 29
Table 3.15: 2014-based population projections by RSP ............................................. 31
Table 3.16: 2014-based population projections by local authority and year ............... 32
Table 3.17: 2014-based population projections by variant .......................................... 32
Figure 3.1: 2014-based population projections for North Wales by variant ................. 33
3.7 Migration .................................................................................................................. 34
North Wales
Page 3 of 87
Table 3.18: Internal migration flows from Welsh local authorities to the rest of the UK.................................................................................................................................... 34
3.8 Commuting / Travel to work ..................................................................................... 35
Table 3.19: Commuting patterns by Welsh local authority and measure .................... 35
Chapter 4: Qualifications, education, and training ............................................................. 36
4.1 Qualification levels ................................................................................................... 36
Table 4.1: The level of highest qualifications held by working age adults by area and level of qualification .................................................................................................... 36
4.2 Further Education and Work Based Learning .......................................................... 37
Table 4.2: Unique learners enrolled in Wales at further education institutions by unitary authority of domicile ........................................................................................ 37
Table 4.3: Provider learners in Wales by unitary authority of domicile, type of provider and mode of study ...................................................................................................... 38
Table 4.4: Learning activities at further education institutions by sector subject area and unitary authority of domicile ................................................................................. 39
Table 4.5: Unique learners in work-based learning provision by programme and local authority of domicile .................................................................................................... 40
Table 4.6: Learning programmes in work-based learning provision ........................... 41
Table 4.7: Learning programmes for Foundation Apprenticeships, Apprenticeships and Higher Apprenticeships ........................................................................................ 42
Table 4.8: Learning activities in work-based learning provision by subject and credit-level ............................................................................................................................ 43
4.3 Higher Education ...................................................................................................... 44
Table 4.9: The number of enrolments at Welsh HEIs by level and academic year ..... 44
Table 4.10: The number of enrolments at Welsh HEIs (and the Open University) by level of study and HEI ................................................................................................. 45
Table 4.11: The number of first year enrolments at Welsh HEIs (and the Open University) by level of study and HEI .......................................................................... 46
Table 4.12: The number of enrolments at Welsh HEIs with teaching through the medium of Welsh by level of study and HEI ............................................................... 47
Table 4.13: The number of qualifiers from Welsh HEIs (and the Open University) by level of study and HEI ................................................................................................. 48
Table 4.14: The number of qualifiers from Welsh HEIs (and the Open University), made by Welsh domiciled students, by level of study and HEI ................................... 49
Chapter 5: Welsh language skills ....................................................................................... 50
5.1 Welsh language use - Census.................................................................................. 50
Table 5.1: Ability to speak Welsh, by economic region, year and level of ability, Census ....................................................................................................................... 50
Figure 5.1: The percentage of people able to speak Welsh by economic region, 2011.................................................................................................................................... 51
5.2 Welsh language skills use by employers .................................................................. 51
5.3 Importance and impact of Welsh language skills...................................................... 52
Table 5.2 Proportion of establishments who feel Welsh language skills were important for… ............................................................................................................................ 52
5.4 Availability and usage of Welsh language skills ...................................................... 52
Table 5.3 Whether having more staff able to communicate in Welsh / a higher level of skills in Welsh would benefit the establishment .......................................................... 53
5.5 Qualifications and training via the medium of Welsh ............................................... 54
Chapter 6: Employer views on skills and training ............................................................... 55
6.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 55
6.2 Vacancies and Skill Shortage Vacancies ................................................................. 56
Table 6.1: Incidence and density of vacancies by region ........................................... 56
North Wales
Page 4 of 87
Table 6.2: Incidence and density of skill shortage vacancies by region ..................... 57
Table 6.3: Incidence of skill shortage vacancies by sector and region ...................... 58
Table 6.4: Density of skill shortage vacancies by occupation and region .................. 58
Figure 6.1: People and personal skills lacking among applicants .............................. 59
Figure 6.2: Technical and practical skills lacking among applicants .......................... 60
6.3 Skills Gaps ............................................................................................................... 61
Table 6.5: Incidence and density of skills gaps by region .......................................... 61
Table 6.6: Incidence of skills gaps by sector and region ............................................ 62
Table 6.7: Density of skill shortage vacancies by occupation and region .................. 62
Figure 6.3: People and personal skills that need improving ....................................... 63
Figure 6.4: Technical and practical skills that need improving ................................... 64
6.4 Employer perceptions of under-use of skills and qualifications ................................ 65
6.5 Training and workforce development ....................................................................... 65
Table 6.8: Training activity by region ......................................................................... 66
Figure 6.5: Proportion of staff trained over the last 12 months by occupation ............ 67
Figure 6.6: Types of training provided ........................................................................ 68
Figure 6.7: Barriers to providing more training ............................................................ 69
Figure 6.8: Reasons for not providing training in the previous 12 months .................. 70
Table 6.9: Total training expenditure and training spend per person trained and per employee (£’s) ............................................................................................................ 71
6.6 High performance working practices ........................................................................ 71
Table 6.10: High Performance Working (HPW) practices according to the five factors.................................................................................................................................... 71
Table 6.11: Employer adoption of High Performance Working (HPW) practices ........ 72
6.7 Product Market Strategies ........................................................................................ 72
Table 6.12: Product Market Strategy scores ............................................................... 73
Chapter 7: Projections of the labour market ....................................................................... 74
7.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 74
7.2 What is Working Futures? ....................................................................................... 75
7.3 What does Working Futures say about the future of the labour market? ................. 76
Table 7.1: Projected employment levels and change, by region 2014-2024 .............. 76
Figure 7.1: Projected annual expansion demand, replacement demand and the total (net) requirement in North Wales, 2014-2024 ............................................................. 77
7.4 Projections by industrial sector ................................................................................. 77
Table 7.2: Projected employment change in North Wales, by sector, 2014-2024....... 78
7.5 Projections by occupation ........................................................................................ 79
Table 7.3: Projected employment change in North Wales, by occupation, 2014-2024.................................................................................................................................... 80
7.6 Projections by qualification ....................................................................................... 81
Figure 7.2: Projections of employment by qualification level 2004-2024, North Wales.................................................................................................................................... 81
Figure 7.3: Projections of employment change by disaggregated qualification level in North Wales, 1994-2024 ............................................................................................. 82
Table 7.4: Projected change in qualification level of those in employment in North Wales, 2014-2024....................................................................................................... 83
Annex A: Working Futures 2014-2024: Sector definitions.................................................. 84
Annex B: Working Futures 2014-2024: Occupation definitions .......................................... 85
Annex C: Further reading ................................................................................................... 86
North Wales
Page 5 of 87
Chapter 1: Introduction
This is one of three Regional Labour Market Intelligence Reports produced for the purpose
of ensuring the Regional Skills Partnerships (RSPs) have a consistent set of core labour
market intelligence (LMI) available on which to base their Regional Employment and Skills
Plans. In addition to aiding the Regional Skills Partnerships, the Regional LMI Reports
should form an easily accessible source of regional LMI for all stakeholders.
Chapters 2-4 (and Census data in chapter 5) are drawn from StatsWales. The ‘next
update’ information provided throughout the bulletins relate to when new data for the
dataset are next being released. Whilst the Regional LMI Reports will be updated
regularly, for the latest data use the links provided to access StatsWales.
The remaining content is drawn from the Employer Skills Survey 2015, Working Futures
2014-24, and the Welsh language skills needs in eight sectors report (2014). This
information will be updated as more appropriate / up-to-date sources become available.
North Wales consists of the following six local authorities: Isle of Anglesey, Gwynedd,
Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire and Wrexham.
For more information on the Regional Skills Partnerships visit their webpages below:
North Wales Economic Ambitions Board
http://www.northwaleseab.co.uk/
South East Wales Learning, Skills and Innovation Partnership
http://www.lskip.wales/
South West and Mid Wales Regional Learning and Skills Partnership
http://www.rlp.org.uk/
North Wales
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Chapter 2: Economic performance
2.1 Introduction
There are different time periods covered in the different sections of this report, therefore
care should be taken when generating conclusions about the overall picture for labour
market statistics in Wales.
According to the latest headline labour market statistics, March 2017, North Wales had the
highest employment rate and second lowest economic inactivity rate (excluding students)
amongst the Welsh Economic Regions. The unemployment rate was the second lowest. It
had the highest GVA per head, the second highest GDHI per head.
In 2015, North Wales had a total Gross Value Added of £12.8 billion. This translates to
£18,462 per head or 72.8 per cent of the UK average, compared to 71.0 per cent for
Wales.
The latest data, 2015, for Gross Disposable Household Income per head in North Wales
was £17,005, rising from £15,968 in 2013.
2.2 Gross Value Added (GVA)
GVA in North Wales in 2015 was £12.8 billion, up 3.4 per cent over the year, compared to
an increase of 3.0 per cent for Wales.
GVA per head was 72.8 per cent of the UK average in 2015, up 0.8 percentage points
over the year.
There were wide variations in GVA per head across North Wales, from 52.9 per cent of the
UK average in the Isle of Anglesey to 84.1 per cent in Flintshire and Wrexham.
North Wales
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Table 2.1: Gross Value Added by measure, Welsh economic region and year
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK excluding Extra-Region
Total (£ million) 1,358,627 1,387,531 1,423,604 1,471,681 1,528,178 1,604,162 1,650,622
£ per head 21,822 22,109 22,495 23,101 23,838 24,833 25,351
Index (UK=100) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Wales
Total (£ million) 47,550 47,726 49,808 51,523 53,178 54,164 55,788
£ per head 15,647 15,648 16,257 16,760 17,252 17,517 18,002
Index (UK=100) 71.7 70.8 72.3 72.6 72.4 70.5 71.0
North Wales
Total (£ million) 10,643 10,723 11,161 11,812 12,357 12,403 12,822
£ per head 15,546 15,634 16,212 17,109 17,856 17,870 18,462
Index (UK=100) 71.2 70.7 72.1 74.1 74.9 72.0 72.8
Data Source: Regional Accounts, Office for National Statistics
Next update: December 2017
StatsWales
North Wales
Page 8 of 87
Table 2.2: Gross Value Added by measure, Welsh economic region, Local Authority and year
Total (£ million) 2014 2015 Change (a)
Wales 54,164 55,788 3.0%
North Wales 12,403 12,822 3.4%
Isle of Anglesey 929 938 1.0%
Gwynedd 2,227 2,317 4.0%
Conwy and Denbighshire 3,225 3,370 4.5%
Flintshire and Wrexham 6,022 6,197 2.9%
£ per head
Wales 17,517 18,002 2.8%
North Wales 17,870 18,462 3.3%
Isle of Anglesey 13,242 13,411 1.3%
Gwynedd 18,214 18,855 3.5%
Conwy and Denbighshire 15,278 15,978 4.6%
Flintshire and Wrexham 20,727 21,314 2.8%
Index (UK=100)
Wales 70.5 71.0 0.5
North Wales 72.0 72.8 0.8
Isle of Anglesey 53.3 52.9 -0.4
Gwynedd 73.3 74.4 1.1
Conwy and Denbighshire 61.5 63.0 1.5
Flintshire and Wrexham 83.5 84.1 0.6
Data Source: Regional Accounts, Office for National Statistics
Next update: December 2017
(a) Percentage change for £ millions and £ per head; percentage
point change for index.
StatsWales
Page 9 of 87
Table 2.3: Gross Value Added by Welsh NUTS3 areas and industry 2015
Public
administration,
defence,
education and
health Production
Wholesale,
retail,
transport,
hotels and
food
Real estate
activities
Professional,
scientific and
technical
activities;
administrative and
support service
activities Construction
Financial and
insurance
activities
Other service
activities
Information and
communication
Agriculture,
forestry and
fishing
Percentage of all industries
Wales 26.1 20.3 16.9 12.7 7.6 6.0 3.7 3.3 2.8 0.7
North Wales
Isle of Anglesey 19.3 9.7 24.5 19.1 5.0 6.5 1.2 3.4 1.0 1.7
Gwynedd 29.2 9.9 19.3 14.0 4.8 6.1 2.8 3.9 2.1 1.1
Conwy and Denbighshire 31.4 2.6 20.0 15.3 7.8 7.2 2.2 3.9 1.6 1.0
Flintshire and Wrexham 17.8 3.1 14.6 9.3 6.9 4.4 1.5 2.2 4.0 0.5
Total (million)
Wales 14,537 11,339 9,407 7,086 4,253 3,329 2,047 1,851 1,565 373
North Wales
Isle of Anglesey 181 91 230 179 47 61 11 32 9 16
Gwynedd 677 229 448 325 111 141 66 91 48 26
Conwy and Denbighshire 1,059 89 674 516 263 241 74 132 55 33
Flintshire and Wrexham 1,104 191 903 578 428 270 91 138 246 33
Data Source: Regional Accounts, Office for National Statistics
Next update: December 2017 StatsWales
North Wales
Page 10 of 87
2.3 Earnings
According to provisional figures, it is anticipated that the average gross weekly earnings in
Wales in 2016 will be 2.9 per cent higher than in 2015. Flintshire will be the local authority
with the highest average gross weekly earnings. Neath Port Talbot was where Males
achieved the highest average gross weekly earnings and Denbighshire being the highest
for Females.
Table 2.4: Average, median, gross weekly earnings
Males Females Persons Males Females Persons Males Females Persons
Wales 501.2 422.0 473.9 511.3 427.8 478.6 525.0 448.5 492.4
North Wales
Isle of Anglesey 541.1 342.2 475.3 581.1 384.6 516.6 546.2 407.8 500.2
Gwynedd 423.4 381.6 421.7 403.4 420.6 414.7 412.2 449.0 433.5
Conwy 497.0 430.8 461.0 451.0 475.8 473.8 452.2 451.1 454.3
Denbighshire 497.0 499.5 499.5 553.8 458.9 510.3 487.5 526.1 493.5
Flintshire 573.5 420.4 528.4 548.3 475.3 529.0 585.7 452.6 551.5
Wrexham 465.5 390.6 439.0 498.4 411.6 464.8 501.4 425.7 486.0
Mid Wales
Powys 456.1 364.0 405.3 470.7 378.2 435.9 476.7 438.6 460.2
Ceredigion 456.9 387.1 438.3 445.0 * 414.0 465.5 404.6 455.9
South West Wales
Pembrokeshire 480.0 419.5 461.9 496.8 367.4 434.2 492.4 416.9 455.8
Carmarthenshire 476.2 449.5 462.3 496.5 436.1 461.9 486.7 436.1 459.5
Swansea 475.7 453.8 466.4 482.5 440.6 460.4 467.8 452.6 461.1
Neath Port Talbot 563.4 403.4 512.9 589.0 412.6 550.6 605.5 413.3 529.1
South East Wales
Bridgend 539.9 452.6 509.5 536.3 458.9 511.7 587.0 463.6 538.6
The Vale of Glamorgan 516.9 358.3 456.0 502.1 366.0 436.6 507.5 401.4 481.9
Cardiff 535.6 452.7 504.4 556.0 454.2 512.4 570.1 479.1 532.8
Rhondda Cynon Taf 499.1 435.4 477.9 524.0 440.9 489.8 506.0 448.2 490.4
Merthyr Tydfil 399.8 428.8 404.7 416.6 408.9 410.3 * 446.8 453.5
Caerphilly 497.5 411.2 466.5 513.4 424.1 482.7 546.0 467.9 512.7
Blaenau Gwent 475.4 355.8 431.2 516.6 373.4 443.7 504.8 360.0 408.9
Torfaen 527.6 387.2 451.0 503.0 422.3 461.4 494.5 440.4 467.7
Monmouthshire 522.4 403.9 463.9 528.3 392.5 477.0 568.8 399.9 487.7
Newport 475.3 423.8 471.5 444.7 479.0 451.4 491.7 442.0 469.9
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Office for National Statistics
Next update: October 2017
(p) Provisional data
. - The data item is not applicable.
* - The data item is disclosive or not sufficiently robust for publication
(1) Data for 2014 are only directly comparable to the 2011 estimates onwards, comparisons with other years are not strictly valid.
(2) Data for 2015 are only directly comparable to the 2011 estimates onwards, comparisons with other years are not strictly valid.
(3) Data for 2016 are only directly comparable to the 2011 estimates onwards, comparisons with other years are not strictly valid.
2014 (1) 2015 (2) 2016 (3)(p)
StatsWales
North Wales
Page 11 of 87
2.4 Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI)
GDHI per head in North Wales was 89 per cent of the UK average in 2015.
There were variations in GDHI per head within North Wales, from 81.6 per cent of the UK
average in the Gwynedd to 90.8 per cent in Flintshire and Wrexham.
Table 2.5: Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI)
2013 2014 2015
Total (£ million) UK 1,161,542 1,199,214 1,243,970
Wales 47,646 48,902 50,642
North Wales 11,050 11,364 11,810
£ per head UK 18,119 18,565 19,106
Wales 15,457 15,815 16,341
North Wales 15,968 16,374 17,005
Index (UK=100) UK 100 100 100
Wales 85.3 85.2 85.5
North Wales 88.1 88.2 89.0
Source: Regional Accounts, ONS
Next update: May 2018 StatsWales
North Wales
Page 12 of 87
Table 2.6: Gross Disposable Household income by measure and Welsh economic region
2015
Total (£ million)
UK 1,243,970
Wales 50,642
North Wales 11,810
Isle of Anglesey 1,211
Gwynedd 1,916
Conwy and Denbighshire 3,641
Flintshire and Wrexham 5,042
£ per head
UK 19,106
Wales 16,341
North Wales 17,005
Isle of Anglesey 17,306
Gwynedd 15,594
Conwy and Denbighshire 17,264
Flintshire and Wrexham 17,342
Index (UK=100)
UK 100
Wales 85.5
North Wales 89.0
Isle of Anglesey 90.6
Gwynedd 81.6
Conwy and Denbighshire 90.4
Flintshire and Wrexham 90.8
Next update: May 2018
Source: Regional Accounts, Office for National Statistics
StatsWales
North Wales
Page 13 of 87
Table 2.7: Active enterprises, business births and deaths, levels and rates
2015
Active
enterprises
Active enterprises
per 10,000 of the
population aged
16 to 64 Births Birth Rate
Births per 10,000
of the population
aged 16 to 64 Deaths
Death
Rate
Deaths per 10,000
of the population
aged 16 to 64
Great Britain 2,615,965 653 377,635 14.4 94 248,055 9.5 62
United Kingdom 2,672,025 648 383,075 14.3 93 252,040 9.4 61
England 2,348,065 677 344,385 14.7 99 223,120 9.5 64
Scotland 172,890 497 21,725 12.6 62 16,315 9.4 47
Northern Ireland 56,060 477 5,440 9.7 46 3,985 7.1 34
Wales 95,010 495 11,525 12.1 60 8,620 9.1 45
North Wales 22,770 547 2,365 10.4 57 1,885 8.3 45
Isle of Anglesey 2,045 502 190 9.3 47 155 7.6 38
Gwynedd 4,425 594 405 9.2 54 315 7.1 42
Conwy 3,945 594 375 9.5 56 345 8.7 52
Denbighshire 3,330 600 350 10.5 63 295 8.9 53
Flintshire 5,105 539 600 11.8 63 470 9.2 50
Wrexham 3,920 464 445 11.4 53 305 7.8 36
Source: Business Demography, Office for National Statistics
Next update: November 2017
The latest two years' estimates on births and deaths are subject to revision, which would normally be made in the following year's publication.
StatsWales
Page 14 of 87
2.5 Exports
Table 2.8: Value (special trade) of exports by product, sector and country (£m)
Quarter 3, 2016 Quarter 4, 2016 Quarter 1, 2017 Wales total Quarter 3, 2016 Quarter 4, 2016 Quarter 1, 2017UK regions
total
Total 5,924.29 6,811.13 3,556.52 16,291.94 131,808.51 146,610.85 74,446.05 352,865.40
Animal and Vegetable Oils etc. 2.11 2.82 1.46 6.40 212.73 197.12 102.71 512.56
Beverages and Tobacco 37.21 41.77 18.79 97.77 3,566.24 3,901.81 1,477.65 8,945.70
Chemicals and Related Products 731.52 802.77 411.57 1,945.85 21,141.25 22,297.86 11,860.75 55,299.86
Commodities not Classified Elsewhere 20.85 51.04 22.96 94.85 949.68 886.03 417.02 2,252.73
Crude Materials, Inedible, excl. Fuels 122.70 131.86 75.53 330.10 2,528.51 2,824.57 1,533.08 6,886.16
Food and Live Animals 152.46 156.18 74.37 383.01 5,772.82 6,610.14 2,948.84 15,331.81
Machinery and Transport Equipment 2,639.03 2,994.41 1,627.19 7,260.63 56,456.11 64,391.66 32,318.66 153,166.44
Manufactured Goods 866.70 960.65 567.89 2,395.24 12,212.34 13,173.28 6,911.95 32,297.57
Minerals, Fuels, Lubricants etc. 751.65 982.65 422.25 2,156.55 9,743.21 10,406.37 6,257.18 26,406.75
Miscellaneous Manufactured Goods 600.06 686.98 334.50 1,621.54 19,225.60 21,922.00 10,618.22 51,765.82
Source: Statistics and Analysis of Trade Unit, HM Revenue and Customs
Next update: 7 September 2017
Sum of UK regionsWales
StatsWales
North Wales
Page 15 of 87
Chapter 3: People – demographics, employment, unemployment and economic inactivity
3.1 Employment & Unemployment
Employment There were 301,100 people in employment in North Wales in the year to March 2017, down 0.5 percent over the year. Within North Wales, 3 of the 6 authorities had increases over the year. The employment rate in North Wales in the year to March 2017 was 73 per cent; this rate was higher than the rate for Wales but lower than that of the UK (71.4 per cent and 74 per cent respectively). Unemployment
The unemployment rate was 3.8 per cent for the year to March 2017, down from 4.5 per cent a year prior and remained lower than the rates for both Wales and the UK (4.5 per cent and 4.9 per cent respectively). Within North Wales, the unemployment rate was at it’s highest in the Isle of Anglesey.
Table 3.1: Employment and unemployment in Wales, levels and rates, aged 16 - 64
Year ending 31
Mar 2017
Employment
levelEmployment rate
Unemployment
level
Unemployment
rate
United Kingdom 30,395,200 74.0 1,553,900 4.9
Wales 1,358,700 71.4 64,400 4.5
North Wales 301,100 73.0 12,000 3.8
Isle of Anglesey 28,500 71.0 1,700 5.6
Gwynedd 54,300 73.8 3,000 5.2
Conwy 47,200 72.4 1,900 3.8
Denbighshire 38,800 70.8 1,400 3.4
Flintshire 67,800 71.9 1,900 2.7
Wrexham 64,500 76.5 2,100 3.2
Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics
(a) Regional area level data are approximations Next update: September 2017 StatsWales
Page 16 of 87
Table 3.2: Employment level by Welsh local area and year, aged 16 - 64
Year ending
31 Mar 2007
Year ending
31 Mar 2008
Year ending
31 Mar 2009
Year ending
31 Mar 2010
Year ending
31 Mar 2011
Year ending
31 Mar 2012
Year ending
31 Mar 2013
Year ending
31 Mar 2014
Year ending
31 Mar 2015
Year ending
31 Mar 2016
Year ending
31 Mar 2017
United Kingdom 28,429,200 28,737,100 28,658,100 28,145,200 28,290,100 28,352,500 28,618,300 28,967,800 29,542,000 30,078,500 30,395,200
Wales 1,306,700 1,321,300 1,311,900 1,281,000 1,279,500 1,285,000 1,295,900 1,329,500 1,322,000 1,353,800 1,358,700
North Wales 303,800 303,700 304,800 298,000 297,300 298,700 298,400 300,500 295,100 302,600 301,100
Isle of Anglesey 28,900 28,900 28,500 29,400 29,700 30,300 29,300 28,700 29,300 30,300 28,500
Gwynedd 52,400 51,200 51,300 51,400 51,400 49,900 52,200 52,100 51,000 51,300 54,300
Conwy 46,600 47,700 48,300 46,400 45,900 46,900 46,900 47,700 46,300 46,900 47,200
Denbighshire 40,400 39,400 39,500 38,200 38,400 39,500 38,800 40,200 38,300 39,500 38,800
Flintshire 73,000 73,500 74,000 70,500 69,700 70,800 69,800 68,900 68,000 70,400 67,800
Wrexham 62,400 63,100 63,100 62,100 62,300 61,200 61,500 63,000 62,200 64,200 64,500
Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics
Next update: September 2017
StatsWales
Page 17 of 87
Table 3.3: Unemployment level by Welsh local area and year, aged 16 - 64
Year ending
31 Mar 2007
Year ending
31 Mar 2008
Year ending
31 Mar 2009
Year ending
31 Mar 2010
Year ending
31 Mar 2011
Year ending
31 Mar 2012
Year ending
31 Mar 2013
Year ending
31 Mar 2014
Year ending
31 Mar 2015
Year ending
31 Mar 2016
Year ending
31 Mar 2017
United Kingdom 1,617,400 1,579,900 1,907,800 2,440,500 2,373,000 2,544,700 2,493,000 2,299,400 1,922,200 1,677,500 1,553,900
Wales 74,400 79,200 97,600 119,100 120,600 121,300 120,000 109,800 98,300 80,600 64,400
North Wales 12,300 14,800 17,200 18,700 21,900 20,600 21,200 19,100 16,400 14,200 12,000
Isle of Anglesey 1,800 1,900 2,200 1,900 1,600 1,600 2,200 2,200 2,100 1,500 1,700
Gwynedd 1,500 3,400 2,500 3,100 3,400 3,300 3,500 3,100 3,300 3,500 3,000
Conwy 2,400 2,100 2,500 2,700 3,100 3,700 3,500 2,500 2,400 2,500 1,900
Denbighshire 1,700 2,200 2,600 3,100 3,600 3,200 3,000 3,000 3,000 1,900 1,400
Flintshire 2,200 1,900 3,100 4,400 5,700 3,600 4,400 4,800 2,500 2,400 1,900
Wrexham 2,600 3,300 4,200 3,600 4,600 5,200 4,800 3,500 3,200 2,400 2,100
Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics
Next update: September 2017 Next update: September 2017
StatsWales
Page 18 of 87
Table 3.4: Employment rate by Welsh local area and year, aged 16 - 64
Year ending
31 Mar 2007
Year ending
31 Mar 2008
Year ending
31 Mar 2009
Year ending
31 Mar 2010
Year ending
31 Mar 2011
Year ending
31 Mar 2012
Year ending
31 Mar 2013
Year ending
31 Mar 2014
Year ending
31 Mar 2015
Year ending
31 Mar 2016
Year ending
31 Mar 2017
United Kingdom 72.5 72.6 71.8 70.2 70.1 69.9 70.7 71.4 72.6 73.5 74
Wales 69.1 69.3 68.4 66.6 66.4 66.7 67.6 69.5 69.3 71.1 71.4
North Wales 72.2 71.7 71.8 70.3 70.4 70.9 71.3 72.1 71.1 73.2 73
Isle of Anglesey 67.6 67 66.3 69.4 69.9 72 71.4 70.2 72.3 75 71
Gwynedd 70.9 69.3 69.3 69 69 67.1 69.9 70.6 69.3 69.5 73.8
Conwy 70.4 71.1 72 69.5 69.1 70.7 70.7 71.7 70.2 71.6 72.4
Denbighshire 71 68.8 68.9 66.7 67.4 69.7 69.4 72.7 69.4 72.2 70.8
Flintshire 75.2 75.2 76 72.5 71.9 73.4 72.9 72.2 71.5 74.1 71.9
Wrexham 74.3 74.3 73.8 72.6 73 72 72.6 74.3 73.4 76.2 76.5
Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics
Next update: September 2017 StatsWales
Page 19 of 87
Table 3.5: Unemployment rate by Welsh local area and year, aged 16 - 64
Year ending
31 Mar 2007
Year ending
31 Mar 2008
Year ending
31 Mar 2009
Year ending
31 Mar 2010
Year ending
31 Mar 2011
Year ending
31 Mar 2012
Year ending
31 Mar 2013
Year ending
31 Mar 2014
Year ending
31 Mar 2015
Year ending
31 Mar 2016
Year ending
31 Mar 2017
United Kingdom 5.4 5.2 6.2 8 7.7 8.2 8 7.4 6.1 5.3 4.9
Wales 5.4 5.7 6.9 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.5 7.6 6.9 5.6 4.5
North Wales 3.9 4.6 5.3 5.9 6.9 6.5 6.6 6 5.3 4.5 3.8
Isle of Anglesey 5.9 6.2 7.3 6 5 5.1 6.9 7.1 6.7 4.6 5.6
Gwynedd 2.9 6.2 4.7 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.7 6.1 6.5 5.2
Conwy 4.9 4.3 4.9 5.4 6.4 7.4 7 4.9 4.9 5 3.8
Denbighshire 4 5.3 6.3 7.4 8.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 7.2 4.6 3.4
Flintshire 2.9 2.5 4 5.8 7.6 4.8 5.9 6.5 3.5 6.4 2.7
Wrexham 4 4.9 6.2 5.5 6.8 7.9 7.2 5.3 4.8 7.2 3.2
Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics
Next update: September 2017 Next update: September 2017 StatsWales
Page 20 of 87
Table 3.6: Workplace employment by Welsh local areas and broad industry 2015
All industries
Agriculture,
forestry and
fishing Construction
Finance and
insurance
activities
Information and
communication
Other service
activities Production
Professional,
scientific and
technical activities;
administrative and
support service
activities
Public
administration,
defence,
education and
health
Real estate
activities
Wholesale,
retail,
transport,
hotels and
food
United Kingdom 32,158,200 403,800 2,157,900 1,061,000 1,365,700 1,838,400 2,845,800 5,662,100 7,980,500 551,500 8,291,600
Wales 1,405,600 40,800 92,700 30,800 23,900 77,300 172,500 167,300 423,500 19,100 357,800
North Wales 313,800 11,300 20,600 3,100 4,400 16,600 46,300 33,900 90,300 4,000 83,100
Isle of Anglesey 25,900 2,000 2,000 100 200 1,200 3,800 2,500 4,900 400 8,800
Gwynedd 64,000 3,600 4,700 900 1,200 4,100 5,900 4,400 21,000 1,000 17,200
Conwy 45,700 1,300 3,100 500 600 3,700 2,200 4,200 14,600 800 14,600
Denbighshire 43,500 2,000 3,200 400 700 1,800 4,000 4,000 15,600 800 11,000
Flintshire 59,900 1,300 4,300 600 1,200 2,300 15,100 10,300 10,400 600 13,800
Wrexham 74,700 1,100 3,200 600 500 3,500 15,400 8,500 23,700 500 17,700
Source: Annual Population Survey, Business Register Employment Survey (BRES), Office for National Statistics
Next update: October 2016
StatsWales
Page 21 of 87
Table 3.7: Employment by Priority Sector and Local Authority 2015
Advanced
materials /
manufacturing
ConstructionCreative
industries
Energy &
environment
Food &
Farming
Financial and
professional
services(r)
ICTLife
sciencesTourism
Wales 85.7 113.0 49.6 157.4 50.7 136.2 24.5 13.3 132.4
North Wales
Isle of Anglesey 0.8 2.4 0.6 4.1 2.4 1.4 * * 4.1
Gwynedd 1.0 5.5 2.7 6.7 2.7 4.0 0.7 * 9.6
Conwy 0.9 3.5 1.9 4.8 0.9 3.3 0.8 * 6.8
Denbighshire 2.0 2.5 1.5 2.8 1.8 3.5 1.2 0.6 2.9
Flintshire 5.9 5.5 * 9.6 3.7 6.1 * 1.1 4.8
Wrexham 11.2 5.5 2.3 8.9 4.3 6.0 2.2 1.8 4.4
Those people with missing industry information are excluded. Source: Annual Population Survey
*Denotes data item is disclosive or not sufficiently robust for publication
(r)Data for 2006 to 2014 has been revised based on the updated Financial and professional services definition.
StatsWales
Page 22 of 87
Table 3.8: Status of employed persons by Welsh local authority and measure, aged 16 - 64
Year ending 31 Mar 2017
Total in
employment Employees
Self-
employed
Self-
employment
rate
Full-time
employment
Part-time
employment
Part-time
employment
rate
United Kingdom 30,395,200 25,900,000 4,350,600 14.3 22,647,500 7,674,500 25.2
Wales 1,358,700 1,170,200 178,800 13.2 995,800 358,600 26.4
North Wales 301,100 256,800 42,800 14.2 225,200 74,700 24.8
Isle of Anglesey 28,500 23,400 4,600 16.2 21,600 6,400 22.6
Gwynedd 54,300 42,800 11,400 21.0 40,100 14,100 26.0
Conwy 47,200 40,600 6,500 13.7 34,600 12,500 26.5
Denbighshire 38,800 32,100 6,400 16.4 29,400 9,200 23.8
Flintshire 67,800 60,600 7,000 10.3 49,600 18,000 26.6
Wrexham 64,500 57,300 6,900 10.8 49,900 14,500 22.6
Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics
Next Update: September 2017
StatsWales
North Wales
Page 23 of 87
3.2 Claimant Counts
There were 7,445 people on the claimant count in North Wales in July 2017, down 790 (or 9.6 per cent) over the year. The claimant count rate fell by 0.2 percentage points over the year to stand at 1.8 per cent in July 2017. This was lower than the Wales and UK rates (2 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively). Within North Wales, the claimant count rate varied from 1.6 per cent in Wrexham and Gwynedd to 2.4 per cent in the Isle of Anglesey. Claimant Count has been removed from the ONS labour market release because it may
now be providing a misleading representation of the UK labour market.
From June 2015 the Claimant Count statistics were designated as experimental due to the
impact of Universal Credit, which is designed so a broader span of claimants is required to
look for work than under Jobseeker's Allowance. This means that once Universal Credit is
fully rolled out, the Claimant Count is likely to be higher than it would otherwise be under
Jobseeker's Allowance. The impact has increased as roll-out of Universal Credit has
progressed and the seasonally-adjusted claimant count series has become more volatile.
North Wales
Page 24 of 87
Table 3.9: Claimant count by Welsh local area, variable and month (not seasonally adjusted)
July 2017
Females Males Persons Females Males Persons
United Kingdom 304,685 499,085 803,770 1.5 2.4 1.9
Wales 14,255 24,765 39,015 1.5 2.6 2.0
North Wales 2,715 4,730 7,445 1.3 2.3 1.8
Isle of Anglesey 325 645 970 1.6 3.2 2.4
Gwynedd 390 830 1,220 1.0 2.2 1.6
Conwy 435 850 1,285 1.3 2.6 1.9
Denbighshire 345 645 990 1.2 2.4 1.8
Flintshire 690 920 1,610 1.5 2.0 1.7
Wrexham 530 840 1,370 1.3 2.0 1.6
Next update: 15 September 2017
Source: Jobcentre Plus Administrative System, Department for Work and Pensions
Level Rate
StatsWales
Table 3.10: Claimant count by Local Authority, variable and month (not seasonally adjusted)
Level Rate Level Rate
United Kingdom 768,325 1.9 803,770 1.9
Wales 42,515 2.2 39,015 2.0
North Wales 8,235 2.0 7,445 1.8
Isle of Anglesey 1,190 3.0 970 2.4
Gwynedd 1,345 1.8 1,220 1.6
Conwy 1,460 2.2 1,285 1.9
Denbighshire 1,155 2.1 990 1.8
Flintshire 1,530 1.6 1,610 1.7
Wrexham 1,550 1.8 1,370 1.6
Next update: 15 September 2017
Source: Jobcentre Plus Administrative System, Department for
Work and Pensions
July 2016 July 2017
StatsWales
North Wales
Page 25 of 87
3.3 Benefits claimant counts
This dataset provides a quarterly snapshot of benefit claimants at particular points in time
and are based on 100% of claimants so is not subject to any sampling error. Data are for
the number of people aged 16 to 64 who are claiming one or more key DWP benefits and
the combination of benefits they are claiming.
The aim of the Statistical Group typology is to present each person by the main reasons
why they are claiming benefit. Each client is classified just once.
Benefits are arranged hierarchically and claimants are assigned to the top most benefit
which they receive. Thus a person who is a lone parent and receives Incapacity Benefit
would be classified as incapacity benefits.
For this reason the group lone parent, for example, will not contain all lone parents
claiming Income Support. Some will be included in the incapacity benefits group instead.
Page 26 of 87
Table 3.11: Out-of-work benefit claimants, aged 16 - 64, by Welsh economic region and year
November 2016
Level Rate Level Rate Level Rate Level Rate Level Rate
Great Britain 3,380,420 8.4 2,446,000 6.1 460,480 1.1 401,630 1.0 72,310 0.2
Wales 216,240 11.3 162,350 8.5 26,650 1.4 23,030 1.2 4,200 0.2
North Wales
Isle of Anglesey 4,290 10.5 2,950 7.2 780 1.9 440 1.1 120 0.3
Gwynedd 6,280 8.4 4,530 6.1 950 1.3 630 0.8 160 0.2
Conwy 7,210 10.9 5,490 8.3 860 1.3 710 1.1 150 0.2
Denbighshire 6,660 12.0 5,100 9.2 690 1.2 730 1.3 140 0.3
Flintshire 7,570 8.0 5,740 6.1 790 0.8 900 1.0 130 0.1
Wrexham 8,420 10.0 6,290 7.4 920 1.1 1,040 1.2 170 0.2
Source: Jobcentre Plus Administrative System, Department for Work and Pensions
Next update: No longer updated
Data are for the number of people aged 16 to 64 who are claiming one or more key DWP benefits and the combination of benefits they are claiming.
TotalESA and Incapacity
BenefitJobseeker's Allowance Lone Parent Other
StatsWales
Page 27 of 87
Table 3.12: Out-of-work benefit claimants by Welsh economic region and variable
Nov 2012 Nov 2013 Nov 2014 Nov 2015 Nov 2016 Nov 2012 Nov 2013 Nov 2014 Nov 2015 Nov 2016
Great Britain 4,600,620 4,208,130 3,853,300 3,592,300 3,380,420 11.6 10.6 9.7 9.0 8.4
Wales 276,660 258,640 243,450 226,910 216,240 14.3 13.4 12.7 11.8 11.3
North Wales
Isle of Anglesey 5,570 5,270 4,860 4,540 4,290 13.3 12.7 11.8 11.1 10.5
Gwynedd 8,020 7,420 6,930 6,610 6,280 10.7 10.0 9.4 8.9 8.4
Conwy 9,240 8,750 8,160 7,390 7,210 13.7 13.0 12.2 11.1 10.9
Denbighshire 8,620 7,990 7,580 6,940 6,660 15.2 14.2 13.6 12.5 12.0
Flintshire 10,240 9,480 8,540 7,780 7,570 10.7 9.9 9.0 8.2 8.0
Wrexham 11,090 10,390 9,560 8,710 8,420 12.9 12.2 11.2 10.3 10.0
Source: Jobcentre Plus Administrative System, Department for Work and Pensions
Next update: No longer updated
Data are for the number of people aged 16 to 64 who are claiming one or more key DWP benefits and the combination of benefits they are claiming.
Level Rate
StatsWales
Page 28 of 87
3.4 Economic inactivity
In the year to March 2017 the economic inactivity rate (excluding students) in North Wales was 20.1 per cent. Within North Wales, 4 authorities saw increases in their economic activity and Denbighshire had the highest inactivity rate excluding students.
Table 3.13: Economic activity, inactivity: levels and rates, including and excluding students, aged 16 – 64
Year ending 31
Mar 2016
Year ending 31
Mar 2017
Year ending 31
Mar 2016
Year ending 31
Mar 2017
Year ending 31
Mar 2016
Year ending 31
Mar 2017
Year ending 31
Mar 2016
Year ending 31
Mar 2017
Year ending 31
Mar 2016
Year ending 31
Mar 2017
Year ending 31
Mar 2016
Year ending 31
Mar 2017
United Kingdom 31,756,000 31,949,100 77.7 77.8 9,140,000 9,100,300 22.3 22.2 6,868,200 6,830,100 18.5 18.3
Wales 1,434,400 1,423,100 75.3 74.8 471,000 479,400 24.7 25.2 359,100 355,100 20.8 20.7
North Wales 316,800 313,000 76.6 75.9 96,900 99,200 23.4 24.1 74,300 76,000 19.6 20.1
Isle of Anglesey 31,700 30,100 78.6 75.2 8,600 9,900 21.4 24.8 7,200 7,700 19.0 20.8
Gwynedd 54,800 57,300 74.3 77.9 19,000 16,200 25.7 22.1 12,800 10,900 19.5 16.5
Conwy 49,400 49,100 75.5 75.3 16,100 16,100 24.5 24.7 12,600 13,300 21.0 22.0
Denbighshire 41,400 40,200 75.7 73.3 13,300 14,600 24.3 26.7 10,300 11,200 20.4 22.3
Flintshire 72,800 69,700 76.6 73.9 22,300 24,600 23.4 26.1 17,100 18,500 19.4 21.4
Wrexham 66,600 66,600 79.1 79.0 17,600 17,700 20.9 21.0 14,200 14,500 18.5 18.5
Regional area level data are approximations Source: Labour Force Survey (LFS)/Annual Population Survey (APS), ONS
Next update: September 2017
Economic inactivity rate
(excluding students)Economic activity level Economic activity rate Economic inactivity level Economic inactivity rate
Economic inactivity level
(excluding students)
StatsWales
North Wales
Page 29 of 87
3.5 Population estimates, 2015
The population of Wales at 30 June 2016 was estimated to be 3,113,150 derived from the
international migration statistics, and birth and death registrations reported within
published provisional data on births and deaths.
Table 3.14: Population estimates by local authority and gender
Mid-year 2016
Persons Female Male
United Kingdom 65,648,054 33,270,380 32,377,674
Great Britain 63,785,917 32,323,456 31,462,461
England 55,268,067 27,967,147 27,300,920
Scotland 5,404,700 2,777,197 2,627,503
Northern Ireland 1,862,137 946,924 915,213
Wales 3,113,150 1,579,112 1,534,038
North Wales 695,822 352,414 343,408
Isle of Anglesey 69,723 35,430 34,293
Gwynedd 123,627 62,377 61,250
Conwy 116,538 59,796 56,742
Denbighshire 94,805 48,099 46,706
Flintshire 154,419 78,297 76,122
Wrexham 136,710 68,415 68,295
Next update: June 2017
Source: Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics
StatsWales
3.6 Population projections
Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are
based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on
past trends. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or
central government policies on future population levels or distribution; they indicate what is
expected to happen if these trends continue.
These 2014-based projections are trend-based projections for the 25-year period from
2014 to 2039. As they are trend-based they become less certain the further they are
carried forward. They are based on mid-year population estimates for 2014.
North Wales
Page 30 of 87
In order to illustrate the inherent uncertainty around future demographic change when
producing a set of projections it is possible to produce a principal projection based on an
agreed set of assumptions, together with a number of variants based on alternative
assumptions. For the 2014-based set of Local Authority Population Projections four
variants have been produced along with the principal projection for each authority. They
show how possible variations in the fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions affect the
projections.
The four variant projections published are:
a higher population variant which is based on assumptions of higher fertility rates
and lower mortality rates
a lower population variant which is based on assumptions of lower fertility rates and
higher mortality rates
a variant in which the migration assumption is based on average migration over a
longer, ten-year period
a zero migration variant to illustrate the projected population of each local authority
if there were no future inward or outward migration.
Differences between the ‘high variant’ and principal projection for local authorities are
around 4,600 on average, and between the ‘low variant’ and the principal projection
around 5,900 at mid-2039.
North Wales
Page 31 of 87
Table 3.15: 2014-based population projections by RSP
Wales North Wales
Mid & South
West Wales
South East
Wales
2014 3,092,036 694,038 898,451 1,499,547
2015 3,099,890 695,549 899,902 1,504,438
2016 3,108,054 697,122 901,436 1,509,496
2017 3,116,371 698,716 902,994 1,514,661
2018 3,124,784 700,311 904,561 1,519,913
2019 3,133,336 701,923 906,148 1,525,265
2020 3,142,024 703,548 907,759 1,530,717
2021 3,150,821 705,184 909,390 1,536,247
2022 3,159,716 706,826 911,043 1,541,847
2023 3,168,551 708,436 912,659 1,547,455
2024 3,177,158 709,978 914,199 1,552,981
2025 3,185,467 711,439 915,642 1,558,387
2026 3,193,400 712,809 916,960 1,563,631
2027 3,200,884 714,076 918,131 1,568,677
2028 3,207,927 715,238 919,154 1,573,535
2029 3,214,526 716,299 920,029 1,578,198
2030 3,220,698 717,258 920,756 1,582,683
2031 3,226,467 718,128 921,345 1,586,994
2032 3,231,833 718,907 921,794 1,591,131
2033 3,236,805 719,602 922,101 1,595,102
2034 3,241,390 720,215 922,262 1,598,912
2035 3,245,614 720,753 922,289 1,602,572
2036 3,249,512 721,226 922,196 1,606,090
2037 3,253,097 721,634 921,983 1,609,480
2038 3,256,412 721,993 921,658 1,612,762
2039 3,259,522 722,317 921,241 1,615,964
Source: 2014-based projections for local authorities in Wales,
Welsh Government
Next update: No longer updated. This will be replaced by a
future projection. StatsWales
Page 32 of 87
Table 3.16: 2014-based population projections by local authority and year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Wales 3,092,036 3,099,890 3,108,054 3,116,371 3,124,784 3,133,336 3,142,024 3,150,821 3,159,716 3,168,551 3,177,158 3,185,467
North Wales 694,038 695,549 697,122 698,716 700,311 701,923 703,548 705,184 706,826 708,436 709,978 711,439
Isle of Anglesey 70,169 70,165 70,170 70,176 70,175 70,174 70,169 70,162 70,149 70,129 70,094 70,045
Gwynedd 122,273 122,605 122,948 123,299 123,660 124,034 124,426 124,835 125,265 125,710 126,166 126,628
Conwy 116,287 116,414 116,561 116,717 116,879 117,048 117,223 117,402 117,585 117,761 117,925 118,076
Denbighshire 94,791 94,959 95,144 95,336 95,530 95,729 95,931 96,131 96,328 96,517 96,690 96,847
Flintshire 153,804 154,088 154,372 154,651 154,923 155,186 155,442 155,689 155,927 156,149 156,347 156,515
Wrexham 136,714 137,318 137,927 138,536 139,143 139,751 140,358 140,965 141,572 142,172 142,756 143,327
Source: Welsh Government
Next update: No longer updated. This will be replaced by a future projection.
StatsWales
Table 3.17: 2014-based population projections by variant
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Wales
Higher variant 3,092,036 3,099,890 3,109,130 3,118,670 3,128,539 3,138,740 3,149,275 3,160,191 3,171,423 3,182,890 3,194,597 3,206,572
Lower variant 3,092,036 3,099,890 3,106,358 3,112,471 3,118,224 3,123,629 3,128,656 3,133,275 3,137,474 3,141,227 3,144,498 3,147,306
Principal projection 3,092,036 3,099,890 3,108,054 3,116,371 3,124,784 3,133,336 3,142,024 3,150,821 3,159,716 3,168,551 3,177,158 3,185,467
Ten year average migration variant3,092,036 3,102,696 3,113,764 3,125,083 3,136,597 3,148,349 3,160,336 3,172,527 3,184,908 3,197,315 3,209,571 3,221,598
Zero migration variant 3,092,036 3,094,773 3,097,943 3,101,468 3,105,302 3,109,463 3,113,918 3,118,603 3,123,482 3,128,376 3,133,093 3,137,537
North Wales
Higher variant 694,038 695,549 697,363 699,227 701,146 703,127 705,166 707,276 709,443 711,643 713,878 716,157
Lower variant 694,038 695,549 696,733 697,825 698,820 699,727 700,535 701,242 701,842 702,326 702,686 702,928
Principal projection 694,038 695,549 697,122 698,716 700,311 701,923 703,548 705,184 706,826 708,436 709,978 711,439
Ten year average migration variant694,038 696,072 698,188 700,344 702,523 704,740 706,993 709,278 711,592 713,893 716,146 718,336
Zero migration variant 694,038 694,131 694,312 694,555 694,843 695,191 695,597 696,058 696,567 697,083 697,572 698,025
Source: Welsh Government
Next update: No longer updated. This will be replaced by a future projection. StatsWales
Page 33 of 87
Figure 3.1: 2014-based population projections for North Wales by variant
StatsWales
North Wales
Page 34 of 87
3.7 Migration
Table 3.18: Internal migration flows from Welsh local authorities to the rest of the UK
2015 to 2016
Aged 0 to 14 Aged 15 to 29 Aged 30 to 44 Aged 45 to 64 Aged over 65 All ages
Wales
Net migration 1,200 -3,000 980 3,970 220 3,380
Inward migration 6,590 27,250 10,350 10,110 4,360 58,660
Outward migration 5,390 30,240 9,370 6,140 4,140 55,280
North Wales 200 -1,350 180 1,310 40 380
Isle of Anglesey
Net migration 0 -300 -40 170 -20 -190
Inward migration 300 620 420 540 320 2,200
Outward migration 300 920 460 380 340 2,390
Gwynedd
Net migration 10 -100 10 260 -100 90
Inward migration 420 3,140 760 900 430 5,650
Outward migration 410 3,240 750 640 530 5,570
Conwy
Net migration 110 -280 90 500 210 630
Inward migration 610 1,390 830 1,200 770 4,790
Outward migration 500 1,660 740 700 570 4,170
Denbighshire
Net migration 20 -190 110 220 30 190
Inward migration 640 1,350 860 980 570 4,390
Outward migration 620 1,540 750 750 540 4,200
Flintshire
Net migration 150 -340 170 100 -40 30
Inward migration 780 1,620 1,200 880 390 4,880
Outward migration 630 1,960 1,030 790 440 4,850
Wrexham
Net migration -90 -140 -160 60 -40 -370
Inward migration 510 1,550 800 710 300 3,860
Outward migration 590 1,680 970 660 340 4,240
Data Source: Internal migration statistics, Office for National Statistics
Next update: June 2017
StatsWales
North Wales
Page 35 of 87
3.8 Commuting / Travel to work
In 2016, there were 1,403,500 Welsh residents working either in Wales or elsewhere,
while the total number of people working within Wales was 1,353,300.
Table 3.19: Commuting patterns by Welsh local authority and measure 2016
Number of
people
commuting into
the authority
Number of
people
commuting out
of the authority
Number of
people working
in home
authority
Total number of
people working
in the authority
Percentage of
people working
in their home
authority
Total number of
working residents
Wales 961,200 1,353,300 71% 1,403,500
North Wales 72,500 90,400 224,600 297,100 76% 315,000
Isle of Anglesey 2,400 9,800 20,100 22,500 89% 29,900
Gwynedd 13,400 7,900 48,200 61,500 78% 56,000
Conwy 7,800 14,000 37,500 45,300 83% 51,600
Denbighshire 12,700 11,200 30,700 43,400 71% 41,900
Flintshire 14,700 31,200 39,700 54,400 73% 70,800
Wrexham 21,500 16,300 48,400 70,000 69% 64,800
Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics
Next update: March 2018
StatsWales
Page 36 of 87
Chapter 4: Qualifications, education, and training
4.1 Qualification levels
In Wales, 9.5 per cent of the working age population had no qualifications according to the Annual Population Survey. Conversely, 37.4
per cent held qualifications at level 4 or above.
Table 4.1: The level of highest qualifications held by working age adults by area and level of qualification Year end 31 Dec 2016
No qualificationsQualified to
below level 2
Qualified to NQF
level 2
Qualified to
NQF level 2 or
above
Qualified to NQF
level 3
Qualified to
NQF level 4 or
above
Qualified to NQF
levels 4-6
Qualified to NQF
levels 7-8
Wales 9.5 12.8 19.8 77.7 20.5 37.4 27.6 9.8
North Wales 8.2 13.5 21.9 78.2 21.4 34.8 26.6 8.3
Isle of Anglesey 7.6 12.2 19.7 80.2 22.1 38.4 26.9 11.4
Gwynedd 9.6 10.8 22.3 79.7 18.3 39.1 28.4 10.7
Conwy 7.3 11.5 20.5 81.2 21.7 38.9 29.7 9.3
Denbighshire 8.6 14.4 20.2 77.0 20.8 36.0 27.1 8.9
Flintshire 8.4 15.3 24.9 76.3 22.2 29.2 23.5 5.7
Wrexham 7.7 15.5 21.7 76.8 23.0 32.1 25.6 6.5
Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics
Next update: April 2018 (provisional)
StatsWales
Page 37 of 87
4.2 Further Education and Work Based Learning
There were 129,550 learners enrolled at FE institutions in 2015/16, a 13.8 per cent
decrease on 2014/15.
Table 4.2: Unique learners enrolled in Wales at further education institutions by unitary authority of domicile
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
All areas 167,715 150,225 129,550
Outside Wales or not known 4,760 3,470 2,470
Wales 162,950 146,755 127,085
North Wales region 44,560 40,940 36,190
Isle of Anglesey 4,580 3,890 3,555
Gwynedd 8,540 7,515 6,205
Conwy 8,410 7,315 6,770
Denbighshire 6,860 6,190 5,430
Flintshire 8,530 8,035 7,075
Wrexham 7,635 7,995 7,150
Source: Lifelong Learning Wales Record, Welsh Government Source: Lifelong Learning Wales Record, Welsh Government
Next update: May 2018 (provisional) StatsWales
Page 38 of 87
Table 4.3: Provider learners in Wales by unitary authority of domicile, type of provider and mode of study 2015/16
All modes
of studyFull-time Part-time
Work-
based
learning
All modes
of studyFull-time Part-time
Work-
based
learning
All modes
of studyPart-time
All modes
of study
Work-
based
learning
All areas 185,350 49,465 80,295 55,590 135,365 49,465 69,685 16,215 10,610 10,610 39,375 39,375
Wales 182,250 48,895 78,435 54,925 132,780 48,895 67,950 15,940 10,485 10,485 38,985 38,985
England 2,605 535 1,520 545 2,305 535 1,515 255 5 5 290 290
Northern Ireland * . * . * . * . . . . .
Scotland 25 * 15 5 20 * 15 * . . 5 5
Outside UK or not known 470 35 320 115 255 35 205 20 115 115 95 95
North Wales region 43,100 12,235 19,695 11,170 38,365 12,235 19,690 6,440 * * 4,730 4,730
Isle of Anglesey 4,480 965 2,100 1,415 3,765 965 2,100 700 . . 715 715
Gwynedd 7,375 2,020 3,540 1,810 6,430 2,020 3,540 870 * * 940 940
Conwy 8,300 1,945 4,345 2,010 7,155 1,945 4,345 865 . . 1,150 1,150
Denbighshire 6,460 1,970 2,905 1,580 5,740 1,970 2,905 860 . . 720 720
Flintshire 8,280 2,540 3,570 2,170 7,605 2,540 3,570 1,495 . . 670 670
Wrexham 8,205 2,795 3,230 2,185 7,670 2,795 3,230 1,650 . . 535 535
" . " - Data item not applicable Source: Lifelong Learning Wales Record, Welsh Government
Any values greater than 0 and less than 5 have been suppressed and replaced with an asterisk (*) Next update: May 2018 (provisional)
All providers All Further Education institutions
Local Education
Authority
Community
Learning providers
Other training
providers
StatsWales
Page 39 of 87
Table 4.4: Learning activities at further education institutions by sector subject area and unitary authority of domicile
All credit
levelsEntry level
HE level / NQF
level 4 or above
Not known / not
applicable
NQF level 1 or
equivalent
NQF level 2 or
equivalent
NQF level 3 or
equivalent
Pre entry
level
All areas 408,755 45,385 11,530 46,510 76,000 112,365 116,530 430
Outside Wales or not known 5,775 465 250 440 750 2,075 1,795 .
Wales 402,980 44,925 11,280 46,070 75,250 110,290 114,735 425
North Wales region 112,945 9,915 7,610 14,075 20,420 32,490 28,430 10
Isle of Anglesey 11,285 630 495 2,355 2,290 3,185 2,335 .
Gwynedd 20,980 1,795 975 3,635 3,435 4,780 6,355 .
Conwy 22,615 2,160 3,375 4,285 3,740 5,390 3,670 .
Denbighshire 17,205 1,605 1,695 2,285 3,215 4,720 3,690 .
Flintshire 20,080 1,765 585 675 3,905 7,560 5,595 .
Wrexham 20,775 1,965 485 845 3,835 6,855 6,785 .
" . " - Data item not applicable Source: Lifelong Learning Wales Record, Welsh Government
Next update: May 2018 (provisional)
All sector subject areas, 2015/16
StatsWales
Page 40 of 87
Table 4.5: Unique learners in work-based learning provision by programme and local authority of domicile 2015/16
All
apprenticeship
programmes
Foundation
Apprenticeship
(Level 2)
Apprenticeship
(Level 3)
Higher
Apprenticeship /
MSD (Level 4)
Traineeships Work ReadyOther
programmes
All
programme
types
All areas 42,325 14,680 17,210 10,430 8,300 2,740 365 53,735
Outside Wales or not known 590 175 200 210 15 35 10 650
Wales 41,735 14,505 17,010 10,225 8,290 2,705 355 53,085
North Wales region 9,275 3,615 3,775 1,885 1,275 265 85 10,905
Isle of Anglesey 1,220 465 530 225 150 20 10 1,395
Gwynedd 1,600 620 715 265 145 35 15 1,795
Conwy 1,675 625 685 370 175 105 10 1,965
Denbighshire 1,340 555 485 305 175 25 10 1,545
Flintshire 1,750 705 715 325 265 70 25 2,105
Wrexham 1,695 645 650 400 370 15 20 2,100
" . " - Data item not applicable
Diweddariad nesaf: Mai 2018 (dros dro) Next update: May 2018 (provisional)
Source: Lifelong Learning Wales Record, Welsh Government
StatsWales
Page 41 of 87
Table 4.6: Learning programmes in work-based learning provision 2015/16
All apprenticeship
programmes
Foundation
Apprenticeship
(Level 2)
Apprenticeship
(Level 3)
Higher
Apprenticeship /
MSD (Level 4)
Traineeships Work ReadyOther
programmes
All
programme
types
All areas 45,295 16,715 17,810 10,765 11,340 2,890 380 59,905
Outside Wales or not known 610 190 205 215 20 35 10 680
Wales 44,680 16,525 17,605 10,555 11,320 2,855 365 59,225
North Wales region 9,940 4,105 3,890 1,945 1,680 275 90 11,985
Isle of Anglesey 1,330 550 555 225 230 20 10 1,590
Gwynedd 1,730 715 740 270 215 35 15 1,995
Conwy 1,795 710 705 380 215 110 10 2,130
Denbighshire 1,420 615 500 310 220 30 10 1,680
Flintshire 1,855 785 730 345 320 70 25 2,270
Wrexham 1,810 735 665 410 475 15 20 2,320
" . " - Data item not applicable Source: Lifelong Learning Wales Record, Welsh Government
Diweddariad nesaf: Mai 2018 (dros dro) Next update: May 2018 (provisional)
StatsWales
Page 42 of 87
Table 4.7: Learning programmes for Foundation Apprenticeships, Apprenticeships and Higher Apprenticeships 2015/16
AgricultureBusiness
AdministrationConstruction Engineering
Hair and
Beauty
Healthcare and
Public ServicesHospitality
Leisure, Sport
and Travel
Management and
ProfessionalManufacturing
Media and
Design
Retailing and
Customer
Service
Transportation
All areas 445 5,715 4,675 3,870 1,995 15,010 2,195 1,050 6,180 920 120 3,005 120
Outside Wales or not known 5 35 60 105 15 175 35 . 130 25 . 25 5
Wales 435 5,675 4,615 3,765 1,985 14,835 2,160 1,045 6,055 895 120 2,980 110
North Wales region 115 1,410 1,035 910 400 3,335 600 200 785 365 20 750 15
Conwy 15 235 125 130 60 685 180 45 130 25 10 150 .
Denbighshire 20 155 125 100 45 570 85 45 110 70 . 95 -
Flintshire 50 225 210 265 115 575 105 35 120 45 . 100 10
Gwynedd 5 290 220 100 65 505 90 25 125 110 - 185 .
Isle of Anglesey 10 300 125 125 60 305 70 . 155 55 . 120 -
Wrexham 15 205 225 190 60 690 70 40 150 55 . 100 .
" . " - Data item not applicable Source: Lifelong Learning Wales Record, Welsh Government
Next update: May 2018 (provisional) StatsWales
Page 43 of 87
Table 4.8: Learning activities in work-based learning provision by subject and credit-level
2015/16
All credit
levels
Pre entry
level
Entry
level
NQF level
1 or
equivalent
NQF level
2 or
equivalent
NQF level
3 or
equivalent
HE level /
NQF level 4
or above
Not known
/ not
applicable
North Wales region 33,105 15 1,235 6,170 14,325 7,910 2,550 895
Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care 305 . . * 165 135 * .
Arts, Media and Publishing 40 . . 10 * 20 5 .
Business, Administration and Law 2,820 . . 55 785 665 1,315 .
Construction, Planning and the Built
Environment 1,545 . . 20 935 585 * .
Education and Training 165 . . . 30 125 10 .
Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies 2,150 . * 25 1,065 1,005 50 .
Health, Public Services and Care 3,340 . . 175 885 1,160 1,120 .
History, Philosophy and Theology . . . . . . . .
Information and Communication Technology 635 . . 40 150 410 35 .
Languages, Literature and Culture . . . . . . . .
Leisure, Travel and Tourism 375 . . 25 155 195 . .
Preparation for Life and Work 16,835 * 1,230 4,780 8,075 2,065 . 680
Retail and Commercial Enterprise 4,665 . . 1,035 2,070 1,550 10 .
Science and Mathematics . . . . . . . .
Social Sciences . . . . . . . .
Not known 225 15 * . . . . 215
"." - Data item not applicable Source: Lifelong Learning Wales Record, Welsh Government
Any values greater than 0 and less than 5 have been suppressed and replaced with an asterisk (*) Next update: May 2018 (provisional) StatsWales
Page 44 of 87
4.3 Higher Education
In 2015/16 the number of Higher education enrolments at Welsh Higher Education
Institutions was 121,945, this was 3 per cent lower than in 2014/15.
Table 4.9: The number of enrolments at Welsh HEIs by level and academic year
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
All Welsh HEIs (Excludes the OU) 131,005 131,185 128,785 129,125 125,680 121,945
Postgraduate 30,430 28,150 27,620 28,635 27,780 24,945
Undergraduate 100,575 103,035 101,165 100,490 97,900 97,000
Total (Welsh HEIs and the OU) 140,090 140,450 137,510 137,145 132,975 128,685
Postgraduate 30,900 28,590 28,020 29,005 28,115 25,210
Undergraduate 109,190 111,860 109,490 108,140 104,860 103,475
Source: HESA
StatsWales
Page 45 of 87
Table 4.10: The number of enrolments at Welsh HEIs (and the Open University) by level of study and HEI 2015/16
Total
StudentsFurther Education
Higher
Education
Postgraduate
Research
Postgraduate
TaughtTotal First Degree
Other
UndergraduateTotal
Total (Welsh HEIs and the OU) 148,020 19,335 128,685 4,320 20,890 25,210 81,725 21,745 103,475
All Welsh HEIs (Excludes the OU) 141,280 19,335 121,950 4,310 20,635 24,945 76,305 20,695 97,000
The Open University 6,735 * 6,735 10 255 265 5,420 1,050 6,470
North Wales 27,210 9,920 17,290 565 2,475 3,040 11,105 3,145 14,250
Glyndwr University 6,660 * 6,660 45 605 650 3,440 2,570 6,010
Bangor University 20,550 9,920 10,630 520 1,870 2,390 7,665 575 8,240
South West & Mid Wales 42,265 6,125 36,135 1,245 4,100 5,350 24,820 5,965 30,790
Aberystwyth University 11,510 2,750 8,755 350 720 1,070 6,385 1,300 7,690
Swansea University 20,820 3,375 17,445 750 2,015 2,765 12,990 1,690 14,680
University of Wales, Trinity Saint David 9,935 * 9,935 145 1,365 1,515 5,445 2,975 8,420
South East Wales 71,810 3,285 68,520 2,495 14,060 16,560 40,380 11,580 51,965
Cardiff Metropolitan University 12,580 * 12,580 350 3,010 3,360 8,555 665 9,220
Cardiff University 32,540 1,865 30,675 1,830 6,940 8,775 18,555 3,345 21,905
University of South Wales 26,690 1,420 25,265 315 4,110 4,425 13,270 7,570 20,840
Data Source: HESA
Next update: March 2018
0, 1, 2 are rounded to 0 and represented as *.
All other numbers are rounded to the nearest 5
Postgraduate Undergraduate
StatsWales
Page 46 of 87
Table 4.11: The number of first year enrolments at Welsh HEIs (and the Open University) by level of study and HEI 2015/16
Total
StudentsFurther Education
Higher
Education
Postgraduate
Research
Postgraduate
TaughtTotal First Degree
Other
UndergraduateTotal
Total (Welsh HEIs and the OU) 77,360 19,285 58,075 1,460 12,205 13,660 27,940 16,475 44,415
All Welsh HEIs (Excludes the OU) 74,910 19,285 55,625 1,455 12,090 13,550 26,225 15,850 42,075
The Open University 2,450 * 2,450 * 110 115 1,715 625 2,335
North Wales 18,605 9,920 8,690 210 1,675 1,885 4,125 2,680 6,805
Glyndwr University 3,910 * 3,910 10 285 295 1,350 2,265 3,615
Bangor University 14,695 9,920 4,780 200 1,390 1,590 2,775 415 3,190
South West & Mid Wales 21,870 6,095 15,775 490 2,750 3,240 8,560 3,980 12,535
Aberystwyth University 6,115 2,750 3,360 130 430 560 2,030 770 2,800
Swansea University 11,275 3,345 7,935 290 1,475 1,765 4,710 1,460 6,165
University of Wales, Trinity Saint David 4,480 * 4,480 70 845 915 1,820 1,750 3,570
South East Wales 34,430 3,275 31,160 760 7,660 8,430 13,550 9,190 22,735
Cardiff Metropolitan University 4,960 * 4,960 50 1,350 1,400 3,055 505 3,560
Cardiff University 15,900 1,865 14,040 640 4,215 4,860 5,920 3,265 9,180
University of South Wales 13,570 1,410 12,160 70 2,095 2,170 4,575 5,420 9,995
Data Source: HESA
Next update: March 2018
0, 1, 2 are rounded to 0 and represented as *.
All other numbers are rounded to the nearest 5
Postgraduate Undergraduate
StatsWales
Page 47 of 87
Table 4.12: The number of enrolments at Welsh HEIs with teaching through the medium of Welsh by level of study and HEI 2015/16
All enrolments
Enrolments with
some teaching
through Welsh
All enrolments
Enrolments with
some teaching
through Welsh
All
enrolments
Enrolments with
some teaching
through Welsh
All Welsh HEIs 121,950 7,710 24,945 1,135 97,000 6,570
North Wales 17,290 1,580 3,040 365 14,250 1,215
Bangor University 10,630 1,570 2,390 365 8,240 1,205
Glyndwr University 6,660 10 650 * 6,010 10
South West and Mid Wales 36,135 5,040 5,350 565 30,790 4,475
Aberystwyth University 8,755 450 1,070 40 7,690 410
University of Wales Trinity Saint David 9,935 4,255 1,515 470 8,420 3,785
Swansea University 17,445 335 2,765 55 14,680 280
South East Wales 68,520 1,085 16,560 205 51,965 880
University of South Wales 25,265 415 4,425 5 20,840 410
Cardiff University 30,675 420 8,775 145 21,905 275
Cardiff Metropolitan University 12,580 250 3,360 55 9,220 195
Data Source: HESA
Next update: Aug 2018 (provisional)
0, 1, 2 are rounded to 0 and represented as *.
All other numbers are rounded to the nearest 5
Higher Education Postgraduate Undergraduate
StatsWales
Page 48 of 87
Table 4.13: The number of qualifiers from Welsh HEIs (and the Open University) by level of study and HEI 2015/16
Postgraduate
Total StudentsPostgraduate
TotalFirst degree
Other
undergraduateTotal
Total (Welsh HEIs and the OU) 40,560 13,105 21,560 5,895 27,455
All Welsh HEIs (Excludes the OU) 39,890 13,015 21,115 5,760 26,875
The Open University 670 85 445 140 585
North Wales 5,595 1,815 3,125 655 3,780
Glyndwr University 1,905 295 1,085 530 1,610
Bangor University 3,690 1,520 2,040 125 2,170
South West & Mid Wales 11,070 2,800 6,455 1,815 8,270
Aberystwyth University 2,720 615 1,830 275 2,105
Swansea University 4,795 1,430 2,910 455 3,365
University of Wales, Trinity Saint David 3,555 755 1,715 1,085 2,800
South East Wales 23,225 8,400 11,535 3,290 14,825
Cardiff Metropolitan University 4,950 2,210 2,395 345 2,740
Cardiff University 9,580 4,165 4,915 500 5,415
University of South Wales 8,695 2,025 4,225 2,445 6,670
Data Source: HESA
Undergraduate
StatsWales
Page 49 of 87
Table 4.14: The number of qualifiers from Welsh HEIs (and the Open University), made by Welsh domiciled students, by level of study and HEI
2015/16
Postgraduate
Total StudentsPostgraduate
TotalFirst degree
Other
undergraduateTotal
Total (Welsh HEIs and the OU) 18,425 4,380 9,615 4,430 14,045
All Welsh HEIs (Excludes the OU) 17,755 4,295 9,170 4,290 13,460
The Open University 670 85 445 140 585
North Wales 2,180 535 1,225 425 1,645
Glyndwr University 1,025 135 530 360 890
Bangor University 1,155 400 695 65 755
South West & Mid Wales 5,545 1,180 2,980 1,385 4,360
Aberystwyth University 850 210 530 110 640
Swansea University 2,025 465 1,275 285 1,560
University of Wales, Trinity Saint David 2,670 505 1,175 990 2,160
South East Wales 10,030 2,580 4,970 2,485 7,450
Cardiff Metropolitan University 1,730 510 995 230 1,220
Cardiff University 2,865 1,160 1,475 230 1,705
University of South Wales 5,435 910 2,500 2,025 4,525
Data Source: HESA
Undergraduate
StatsWales
Page 50 of 87
Chapter 5: Welsh language skills
5.1 Welsh language use - Census
In 2011 30.8 per cent of the population of North Wales were able to speak Welsh,
according to Census figures. This has decreased 1.8 percentage points since the 2001
Census.
Table 5.1: Ability to speak Welsh, by economic region, year and level of ability, Census
Able to speak
Welsh
Not able to
speak Welsh Total
Percentage able
to speak Welsh
Able to speak
Welsh
Not able to
speak Welsh Total
Percentage
able to speak
Welsh
Wales 582,368 2,223,333 2,805,701 20.8 562,016 2,393,825 2,955,841 19.0
North Wales 210,501 430,785 641,286 32.8 204,406 459,402 663,808 30.8
Isle of Anglesey 38,893 25,786 64,679 60.1 38,568 28,835 67,403 57.2
Gwynedd 77,846 34,954 112,800 69.0 77,000 40,789 117,789 65.4
Conwy 31,298 75,018 106,316 29.4 30,600 81,124 111,724 27.4
Denbighshire 23,760 66,325 90,085 26.4 22,236 68,291 90,527 24.6
Flintshire 20,599 122,783 143,382 14.4 19,343 127,597 146,940 13.2
Wrexham 18,105 105,919 124,024 14.6 16,659 112,766 129,425 12.9
Mid Wales 63,732 131,625 195,357 48.4 58,954 143,976 202,930 40.9
Powys 25,814 96,659 122,473 21.1 23,990 105,093 129,083 18.6
Ceredigion 37,918 34,966 72,884 52.0 34,964 38,883 73,847 47.3
South West Wales 224,237 595,206 819,443 27.4 206,818 658,579 865,397 23.9
Pembrokeshire 23,967 86,215 110,182 21.8 22,786 95,606 118,392 19.2
Carmarthenshire 84,196 83,177 167,373 50.3 78,048 99,594 177,642 43.9
Swansea 28,938 187,288 216,226 13.4 26,332 204,823 231,155 11.4
Neath Port Talbot 23,404 106,901 130,305 18.0 20,698 114,580 135,278 15.3
South East Wales 147,630 1,197,342 1,344,972 11.0 150,792 1,275,844 1,426,636 10.6
Bridgend 13,397 110,887 124,284 10.8 13,103 121,442 134,545 9.7
The Vale of Glamorgan 12,994 102,122 115,116 11.3 13,189 108,829 122,018 10.8
Cardiff 32,504 261,704 294,208 11.0 36,735 295,538 332,273 11.1
Rhondda, Cynon, Taff 27,946 195,978 223,924 12.5 27,779 197,776 225,555 12.3
Merthyr Tydfil 5,532 48,583 54,115 10.2 5,028 51,595 56,623 8.9
Caerphilly 18,237 145,060 163,297 11.2 19,251 152,721 171,972 11.2
Blaenau Gwent 6,417 61,378 67,795 9.5 5,284 62,064 67,348 7.8
Torfaen 9,780 78,282 88,062 11.1 8,641 79,203 87,844 9.8
Monmouthshire 7,688 74,663 82,351 9.3 8,780 79,829 88,609 9.9
Newport 13,135 118,685 131,820 10.0 13,002 126,847 139,849 9.3
Source: Census
2001 2011
StatsWales
Page 51 of 87
Figure 5.1: The percentage of people able to speak Welsh by economic region, 2011
StatsWales
5.2 Welsh language skills use by employers
In 2014, Welsh Government published the results of a survey of the Welsh language skills
needs of 4,026 establishments across eight sectors.1 The eight sectors were Childcare,
Social care, Hospitality, Creative, Finance and Professional services, Retail, Agrifood, and
Construction. Of the 4,026 employers interviewed across Wales, 1,059 of them were
situated in North Wales. The aims of the study included providing accurate, reliable
information on the current and future Welsh language skills needs of employers on a
sector, occupation and region basis, and on capturing employer perceptions about the
importance of Welsh language skills and the impact of the Welsh language on the
business’s bottom line. A summary of findings for North Wales is presented below.2
1 http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/welsh-language-skills-needs-eight-sectors/?lang=en 2 Throughout the remainder of this chapter, the terms establishment and employer are used interchangeably,
but always refer to establishments.
Page 52 of 87
5.3 Importance and impact of Welsh language skills
Employers in North Wales were more likely than those in other regions to consider Welsh
language skills important. Fifty-seven per cent found having Welsh language skills to be
important compared to 35 per cent across Wales. Employers were also asked about the
importance of Welsh language skills for several factors (Table 5.2).
Table 5.2 Proportion of establishments who feel Welsh language skills were important for… Wales
%
North
Wales
%
South East
Wales
%
South West
Wales
%
Mid Wales
%
Regional / national trade in Wales 37 53 23 42 39
Trade with the rest of the UK 14 19 8 17 14
International trade 9 17 4 6 11
Quality of customer service 37 56 21 40 41
Staff well-being and retention 25 38 11 29 31
Importance of Welsh language skills 35 57 16 40 38
Source: Welsh language skills needs in eight sectors
Row 1 base – Wales – 2,908; North Wales – 766; South East Wales – 791; South West Wales – 741; Mid Wales - 610. Row 2 base – Wales – 1,833; North Wales – 459; South East Wales – 508; South West Wales – 455; Mid Wales – 411. Row 3 base – Wales – 1,100; North Wales – 272; South East Wales – 275; South West Wales – 269; Mid Wales - 284. Rows 4-6 base – Wales – 4,026; North Wales – 1,059; South East Wales – 1,114; South West Wales – 1,026; Mid Wales - 827.
As may be expected, Welsh language skills were viewed as more important for regional /
national trade in Wales as opposed to trade with the rest of the UK or international trade
(53 per cent of establishments in North Wales compared to 19 per cent and 17 per cent).
Furthermore, 56 per cent of establishments in North Wales felt Welsh language skills were
important for the quality of customer service and 38 per cent felt they were important for
staff well-being and retention. Across the above measures, employers in North Wales
were more likely to feel that Welsh language skills were important than those employers in
other regions.
In addition, employers were asked about the impact they felt Welsh language skills had on
their bottom line. Seven per cent of employers in North Wales felt they had a very
significant impact, 13 per cent felt they had a fairly significant impact, and 22 per cent felt
they had a minor impact. These figures were low in comparison to the other regions and
Wales as a whole (5 per cent, 10 per cent, and 17 per cent in Wales).
5.4 Availability and usage of Welsh language skills
When asked about the Welsh language skills of their staff, 81 per cent of employers in
North Wales reported that they had at least some staff who had some level of skills (66 per
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cent in Wales). In addition, 39 per cent of all staff in North Wales were estimated to have
Welsh language skills (24 per cent in Wales).
In terms of the usage of Welsh language skills in the workplace, 23 per cent of
establishments in North Wales reported that all their staff used Welsh in the workplace (13
per cent in Wales) and 30 per cent had some staff that used their Welsh language skills in
the workplace (22 per cent in Wales). However, 28 per cent of North Wales employers
reported having some Welsh language skills amongst staff which weren’t used in the
workplace (31 per cent in Wales). The remaining 19 per cent of establishments in North
Wales said they had no staff with Welsh language skills (32 per cent in Wales). Employers
in North Wales estimated that 28 per cent of their staff used Welsh in the workplace (14
per cent in Wales).
Eight per cent of employers in North Wales felt that their need for Welsh language skills
would increase in the next 2-3 years, similar to the 7 per cent for Wales. Employers in
North Wales were most likely to attribute this to an increase in Welsh speaking customers
and promotion of the Welsh language.
A third of establishments (33 per cent) in North Wales felt that having more staff able to
communicate in Welsh / a higher level of Welsh language skills would benefit the
establishment (Table 5.3).
Table 5.3 Whether having more staff able to communicate in Welsh / a higher level of skills in Welsh would benefit the establishment Wales
%
North
Wales
%
South East
Wales
%
South West
Wales
%
Mid Wales
%
Significant benefit 5 8 4 6 6
Some benefit 22 26 20 25 18
No benefit 64 50 74 62 64
All staff already have advanced skills 7 16 1 6 12
Any benefit 28 33 24 30 24
Source: Welsh language skills needs in eight sectors
Base: Wales – 4,026; North Wales – 1,059; South East Wales – 1,114; South West Wales – 1,026; Mid
Wales - 827.
This is similar to the all Wales figure of 28 per cent, although it should be noted that 7 per
cent of employers in Wales stated that all their staff already had advanced Welsh
language skills compared to 16 per cent in North Wales. Those employers who felt there
would be a benefit to increased Welsh language skills were most likely to cite this enabling
them to offer improved customer service, followed by helping them win new business.
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5.5 Qualifications and training via the medium of Welsh
Of those employers in North Wales who required vocational qualifications, 16 per cent felt
it would be beneficial for some of these to be delivered in Welsh (nine per cent in Wales).
Only two per cent of employers in North Wales said they required staff to have specific
Welsh language qualifications; however, in the 12 months prior to the survey, 6 per cent of
North Wales employers had arranged or funded training specifically designed to develop
Welsh language skills (4 per cent in Wales). Only two per cent of employers had
experienced difficulties sourcing appropriate Welsh language training courses for their staff
(also 2 per cent in Wales), but 85 per cent had never looked for Welsh language skills
courses (88 per cent in Wales). Twelve per cent had looked for courses and had no
difficulty finding appropriate courses (8 per cent in Wales). In terms of recruitment, Welsh
language skills were desirable in 31 per cent of vacancies in North Wales (18 per cent in
Wales).
The Employer Skills Survey 2015 asked employers with skill shortage vacancies and skills
gaps which skills were the cause of these. The skills asked about include both written and
oral Welsh language skills. The results of these questions can be found in chapter six,
which focuses on the Employer Skills Survey 2015.
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Chapter 6: Employer views on skills and training
Key Points
Recruitment activity in recent years has increased, pointing to recovery and growth in
the labour market following the recession.
Only a small proportion of employers had difficulty finding applicants with required
skills, qualifications and experience.
For the minority of employers who had skill shortage vacancies, the skills most difficult
to find were specialist skills or knowledge and the ability to manage own time and
prioritise own tasks.
The majority of employers felt that their staff were proficient in their job roles.
The most common skills employers felt were lacking in their workforce were the ability
to manage own time and prioritise own tasks, team working, managing their own
feelings / handling those of others, and specialist skills or knowledge.
Around a third of employers (35 per cent) had staff with skills and qualifications in
excess of those required for their current job role (under-utilisation).
Two-thirds of establishments (66 per cent) arranged or funded training for their staff.
Expenditure on training per person trained and per employee has fallen slightly since
2103, but is higher than it was in 2011.
Eleven per cent of employers in North Wales were classified as High Performance
Working employers, in line with the Wales average.
In North Wales, 13 per cent of employers had a very high Product Market Strategy
score and a further 29 per cent had a high score, similar to the Wales average. A high
score means employers were more likely to lead the way and innovate in their sector,
not to compete on price and/or offer a premium and/or highly customised product or
service.
6.1 Introduction
In this chapter, the UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey (ESS)3 is used to outline
which skills employers in North Wales feel they have difficulties with and also how they
respond to skills deficiencies. ESS 2015 is the third iteration (following 2011 and 2013) of
a large scale UK wide survey of employers on demand for labour, skill deficiencies, levels
of investment in training, and workforce development. It brings together the separate skills
surveys that previously existed in the UK nations. ESS 2015 surveyed 91,210
establishments across the UK, with 6,027 of them in Wales and 1,528 in North Wales.4
The Employer Skills Survey covers all sectors of the economy and therefore the skills lists
used to determine which skills employers feel there are deficiencies in must be applicable
3 http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/uk-commission-employment-skills-employer-skills-survey/?lang=en 4 Throughout this chapter, the terms establishment and employer are used interchangeably, but always refer to establishments.
Page 56 of 87
across a range of disparate employers. For this reason, readers may wish to supplement
this information with further evidence, such as sector specific information, where available.
Please note that differences may not be statistically significant.
This chapter will discuss skill shortage vacancies (SSVs) and skills gaps. Skills gaps differ
from SSVs in that they represent skills issues with the existing staff in an establishment
and SSVs represent difficulties recruiting appropriate staff from the labour market.
However, the two concepts are linked. For example, an employer who is having difficulty
recruiting some one due to a lack of skills, qualifications or experience (an SSV), may
choose to fill the vacancy with someone who lacks one or more of those qualities, rather
than leave the post vacant. In this case the SSV may turn into a skills gap as the new
recruit is likely to lack full proficiency in their job.
As a guide, the below rules should be followed in regards to sample sizes:
Figures drawn from a base size of fewer than 25 establishments are considered
disclosive and should not be reported (they have been removed from this report).
Figures drawn from a base size of 25 to 49 establishments should be treated with
caution and a suitable caveat should accompany their use.
When figures are based on employment, the decision of whether they are reportable or
should be treated with caution should be based on the number of establishments in the
base, not employment.
6.2 Vacancies and Skill Shortage Vacancies
In Wales, 17 per cent of establishments had a current vacancy at the time of interview,
compared to 19 per cent in the UK. In North Wales this was 17 per cent. As shown in
Table 6.1, this had increased for North Wales, Wales and the UK compared to results in
2011 and 2013, along with increases in vacancy density (vacancies as a percentage of
employment). The increase in recruitment activity points to recovery and growth in the
labour market following the recession.
Table 6.1: Incidence and density of vacancies by region % of establishments with a
vacancy (incidence)
Vacancies as a % of
employment (density)
Unweighted
base, 2015
2011
%
2013
%
2015
%
2011
%
2013
%
2015
%
UK 91,210 14 15 19 2.2 2.4 3.3
Wales 6,027 12 14 17 1.9 2.2 3.1
North Wales 1,528 11 14 17 1.6 2.4 2.9
South East Wales 2,395 14 14 19 1.9 2.0 3.2
Mid Wales 742 11 11 13 2.9 1.8 2.4
South West Wales 1,362 11 14 15 2.0 2.6 3.2
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015
Base: All establishments
Percentages in the final three columns are shown as a proportion of all employment.
Page 57 of 87
Employers may have difficulty filling vacancies – in this case a hard-to-fill vacancy exists.
The majority (73 per cent in Wales) of hard-to-fill vacancies are vacancies which are
proving difficult to fill due to the establishment not being able to find applicants with the
appropriate skills, qualifications or experience. These are known as skill shortage
vacancies (SSVs).
Whilst the labour market is generally able to meet employer demand for labour, six per
cent of establishments in North Wales, Wales and the UK experienced SSVs at the time of
the survey (Table 6.2). This represents an increase from 2011 and 2013 (when it was
three and four per cent). The percentage of vacancies considered SSVs has also
increased since 2011.
Table 6.2: Incidence and density of skill shortage vacancies by region % of establishments with an SSV
(incidence)
% of vacancies that were SSVs
(density)
Unweighted
base, 2015
2011
%
2013
%
2015
%
Unweighted
base, 2015
2011
%
2013
%
2015
%
UK 91,210 3 4 6 24,306 16 22 23
Wales 6,027 3 4 6 1,277 18 20 24
North Wales 1,528 2 4 6 308 17 14 27
South East Wales 2,395 3 4 6 558 16 23 23
Mid Wales 742 4 3 5 137 32 21 34
South West Wales 1,362 4 4 5 274 16 20 22
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015
Base: Columns 1-3 all establishments; columns 4-6 all establishments with vacancies.
Percentages in the final three columns are shown as a proportion of all vacancies.
SSVs affect some sectors more than others (Table 6.3). At the Wales level manufacturing
was the sector with the highest incidence of SSVs, where 10 per cent of establishments
had a SSV. This was also highest in South West Wales (10 per cent). In Mid Wales
business services was the sector with the highest incidence of SSVs (13 per cent).
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Table 6.3: Incidence of skill shortage vacancies by sector and region
Wales
%
North Wales
%
Mid Wales %
South West
Wales %
South East
Wales %
Agriculture 1 4 1 * (0)
Manufacturing 10 9 (10) 10 10
Electricity, gas and water 8 - - - -
Construction 7 7 (8) 7 8
Wholesale and retail 4 3 9 3 4
Hotels and restaurants 7 8 3 6 8
Transport and comms. 8 4 10 9 8
Financial services 4 (4) - - (4)
Business services 7 8 13 5 6
Public administration 8 - - - (16)
Education 5 6 (9) 8 2
Health and social work 6 6 9 5 5
Arts and other services 7 12 5 8 4 Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015
Base: All establishments
(-) denotes that the base is under 25 and the figure has been supressed.
Figures in parenthesis are from a base between 25 and 49 and should be interpreted with care.
(*) denotes that the figure is greater than zero but less than 0.5.
As with sectors, occupations are affected to differing extents by SSVs (Table 6.4). Skilled
trades were the occupation with the highest SSV density in Wales. Managers and sales
and customer services staff were the least affected occupations at the Wales level.
Regional figures should be interpreted with caution due to several low base sizes.
Table 6.4: Density of skill shortage vacancies by occupation and region
Wales
%
North Wales
%
Mid Wales %
South West
Wales %
South East
Wales %
Managers 15 - - - (10)
Professionals 26 (25) - (32) 20
Associate professionals 24 (42) (29) (27) 15
Administrative / clerical 16 (17) - (7) 22
Skilled trades occupations
43 43 (66) 33 47
Caring, leisure and other services
30 (28) - (19) 34
Sales and customer services
15 (21) - (5) 19
Machine operatives 40 (20) - (56) (36)
Elementary 17 25 (11) 23 12 Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015
Base: All establishments with vacancies within each occupation by region
(-) denotes that the base is under 25 and the figure has been supressed.
Figures in parenthesis are from a base between 25 and 49 and should be interpreted with care.
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The skills that employers find difficult to obtain in applicants can be split into two groups –
people and personal skills and technical and practical skills. In terms of people and
personal skills lacking in applicants (Figure 6.1), the most common in both North Wales
and Wales was the ability of the applicant to manage their own time and prioritise tasks
(which was the cause of, at least in part, 49 per cent of SSVs in North Wales and 57 per
cent in Wales).
The next most difficult skills to find in North Wales were the ability to manage their own
feelings / handle those of others and team working skills (both 46 per cent in North Wales).
Figure 6.1: People and personal skills lacking among applicants
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015 Base: All establishments with skill-shortage vacancies –up to 2 occupations followed up with the new lists of skill descriptors (North Wales - 55; Wales - 216).
The most common technical and practical skills lacking among applicants were specialist
skills or knowledge needed to perform the role (Figure 6.2). These were the cause, at
least in part, of 58 per cent of SSVs in North Wales. This was also higher than for any
people and personal skill.
Other difficult to find technical and practical skills included knowledge of products and
services offered (42 per cent) and knowledge of how the organisation works (36 per cent).
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In North Wales, 17 per cent and 15 per cent of SSVs gaps were due, at least in part, to a
lack of written Welsh language skills and oral Welsh language skills.
Figure 6.2: Technical and practical skills lacking among applicants
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015 Base: All establishments with skill-shortage vacancies –up to 2 occupations followed up with the new lists of skill descriptors (North Wales - 55; Wales - 216).
Whilst SSVs only affected six per cent of employers in North Wales, of those that were
affected 96 per cent felt they had an impact on the establishment.5 The most common
5 ESS 2015 did not measure the impact of SSVs on employers specifically (i.e. it did not ask employers with
skill-shortage vacancies what the impacts of these were on the establishment, only the impact of hard-to-fill vacancies as a whole). However, it was possible to isolate the effect of skill deficiencies by exploring the impact of hard-to-fill vacancies in establishments where all the hard-to-fill vacancies were caused by skills-related issues. Given the majority of establishments with hard-to-fill vacancies fell into this group (73 per cent
Page 61 of 87
impact was to increase the workload of other staff (identified by 91 per cent of
establishments in North Wales with hard-to-fill vacancies that were all as a result of skill
shortages).
Other common impacts included having difficulties meeting customer service objectives
(59 per cent), delays developing new products or services (50 per cent), losing business or
orders to competitors (49 per cent), and having difficulties meeting quality standards (also
49 per cent).
6.3 Skills Gaps
Whilst SSVs look at skills issues employers may encounter in the labour market, skills
gaps looks at skills deficiencies employers experience with their existing staff. A skills gap
exists where an employee lacks full proficiency in their job role.
Skills gaps affect more employers than SSVs do, with 13 per cent of employers in North
Wales experiencing skills gaps, compared to 6 per cent with SSVs. The incidence of skills
gaps in Wales and the UK is similar at 14 per cent. In 2015, there were 12,200 staff with
skills gaps in North Wales. In North Wales, 4.4 per cent of staff were reported as having a
skills gap in 2015 (Table 6.5).
Table 6.5: Incidence and density of skills gaps by region % of establishments with skills
gaps (incidence)
% of staff reported as having
skills gaps (density)
Unweighted
base, 2015
2011
%
2013
%
2015
%
2011
%
2013
%
2015
%
UK 91,210 17 15 14 5.5 5.2 5.0
Wales 6,027 16 16 14 4.6 5.8 4.5
North Wales 1,528 15 17 13 5.0 7.6 4.4
South East Wales 2,395 18 17 16 4.5 5.3 4.9
Mid Wales 742 13 12 11 6.1 5.1 2.5
South West Wales 1,362 14 15 13 4.2 5.0 4.5
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015
Base: All establishments
In Wales, manufacturing was the sector most likely to have a skills gap with 22 per cent of
establishments affected (Table 6.6). In South West Wales this was education (20 per
cent) and in Mid Wales this was wholesale and retail trade (22 per cent).
in Wales) – in part reflecting that the majority had just a single vacancy that was proving hard-to-fill ‒ this was a suitable sample from which it was possible to gain a robust measurement.
Page 62 of 87
Table 6.6: Incidence of skills gaps by sector and region
Wales
%
North Wales
%
Mid Wales %
South West
Wales %
South East
Wales %
Agriculture 4 3 2 7 (2)
Manufacturing 22 26 (21) 14 25
Electricity, gas and water 17 - - - -
Construction 12 10 (10) 11 16
Wholesale and retail 16 14 22 15 16
Hotels and restaurants 18 14 16 17 22
Transport and comms. 13 13 15 17 11
Financial services 20 (8) - - (23)
Business services 12 10 7 13 13
Public administration 15 - - - (18)
Education 17 15 (7) 20 19
Health and social work 15 16 18 15 13
Arts and other services 13 15 6 6 16 Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015
Base: All establishments
(-) denotes that the base is under 25 and the figure has been supressed.
Figures in parenthesis are from a base between 25 and 49 and should be interpreted with care.
As with sectors, occupations are affected to differing extents by skills gaps (Table 6.7).
Machine operatives were the occupation with the highest skills gap density in Wales.
Managers and professionals were the least affected occupations at the Wales level.
Regional figures should be interpreted with caution due to several low base sizes.
Table 6.7: Density of skill shortage vacancies by occupation and region
Wales
%
North Wales
%
Mid Wales
%
South West
Wales %
South East
Wales %
Managers 2.2 (1.3) (1.0) (2.1) 2.9
Professionals 3.0 - - - (3.4)
Associate professionals 4.9 - - - (4.9)
Administrative / clerical 3.5 2.3 (2.2) (2.5) 4.7
Skilled trades occupations 5.5 7.2 - (4.6) 4.8
Caring, leisure and other services 5.0 (3.7) - (3.7) 6.2
Sales and customer services 5.2 4.8 (8.6) 7.2 4.4
Machine operatives 7.4 (10.5) - - (6.8)
Elementary 5.8 6.1 (5.9) 4.7 6.3 Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015
Base: All establishments
(-) denotes that the base is under 25 and the figure has been supressed.
Figures in parenthesis are from a base between 25 and 49 and should be interpreted with care.
Page 63 of 87
Whilst there were a range of reasons for why skills gaps occur, the most common causes
relate to transitional factors, with 68 per cent of skills gaps in North Wales being caused, at
least in part, by employees’ training only being partially complete, and 64 per cent by staff
being new to the role. Combined, 81 per cent of skills gaps were caused by at least one of
these transitional factors. Whilst one would expect these transient skills gaps to be
resolved relatively quickly, the majority of establishments also suggested additional factors
that had led to skills gaps.
The next most common causes of skills gaps in North Wales were the introduction of new
working practices (39 per cent) and that staff lacked motivation (37 per cent).
The skills that are lacking in skills gaps can be divided into people and personal skills and
technical and practical skills. The most commonly lacking people and personal skill
(Figure 6.3) was the ability for staff to manage their own time and prioritise their own tasks,
which contributed to 71 per cent of skills gaps in North Wales. The next most common
people and personal skills lacking in North Wales were team working (68 per cent), and
managing their own feelings / handling those of others (59 per cent).
Figure 6.3: People and personal skills that need improving
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015 Base: All establishments with skills gaps –up to 2 occupations followed up with the new lists of skill descriptors (North Wales - 138; Wales - 572).
Page 64 of 87
The most common technical or practical skill needing improving in staff (Figure 6.4) was
specialist skills or knowledge, which was the cause, at least in part, of 57 per cent of skills
gaps in North Wales. This was followed by adapting to new equipment or materials (55
per cent), knowledge of products and services offered (52 per cent), manual dexterity (45
per cent), and solving complex problems (44 per cent).
In North Wales, 15 per cent and 13 per cent of skills gaps were due, at least in part, to a
lack of oral Welsh language skills and written Welsh language skills.
Figure 6.4: Technical and practical skills that need improving
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015 Base: All establishments with skills gaps –up to 2 occupations followed up with the new lists of skill descriptors (North Wales - 138; Wales - 572).
Page 65 of 87
Of those employers in North Wales with skills gaps, 14 per cent felt that they had a major
impact on the establishment and 45 per cent felt they had a minor impact. The most
commonly reported impact was an increase in the workload of other staff (cited by 50 per
cent of establishments with skills gaps). Other impacts included higher operating costs (29
per cent), difficulties meeting quality standards (27 per cent), and difficulties introducing
new working practices (26 per cent).
Eighty-three per cent of employers with skills gaps in North Wales had taken steps to
remedy them, with a further eight per cent planning to. The main actions taken were to
increase training activity / spend or increase / expand trainee programmes (cited by 66 per
cent of North Wales employers with skills gaps), more supervision of staff (57 per cent),
implementation of a mentoring / buddying scheme (48 per cent), and more staff appraisals
/ performance reviews (41 per cent).
6.4 Employer perceptions of under-use of skills and qualifications
As well as having deficiencies in the skills held by employees and applicants, employers
may also have staff with both skills and qualifications in excess of those required for their
current job role (under-utilisation).
In North Wales, this affected 35 per cent of establishments, with managers and
administrative / clerical roles noted as the occupations most likely to be affected by under-
utilisation.
Employers with under-utilised staff were most likely to state that the reason for staff
working in a role for which they have qualifications and skills more advanced than required
is that they were not interested in taking on a higher level role with more responsibility (20
per cent). Other reasons included the working hours suited the employee better (14 per
cent), and a lack of jobs in the desired higher role (13 per cent).
6.5 Training and workforce development Section 6.3 identified that the most common response to skills gaps was to increase
training activity / spend or increase / expand trainee programmes. This section provides a
summary of training activity in North Wales.
In North Wales, two-thirds (66 per cent) of establishments arranged or funded training
(Table 6.8). This figure was above the Wales average and in line with the UK average.
Along with South East Wales, it was the highest percentage out of the Welsh regions.
Fifty-three per cent of employers in North Wales provided off-the-job training and 50 per
cent provided on-the-job training.
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Sixty per cent of staff in North Wales from establishments that trained had received
training, a little below figures for Wales and the UK. This equates to 166,000 staff in North
Wales receiving training.
In terms of the amount of training received, 6.7 days were received per person trained and
4.0 days were received per employee, less than the Wales average, but similar to the UK
average.6
Table 6.8: Training activity by region % providing
any
Training
% off-the-
job training
% on-the-
job training
% of staff
receiving
training
Days per
person
trained
Days per
employee
UK 66 49 53 63 6.8 4.2
Wales 63 49 49 64 7.2 4.6
South East Wales 66 51 52 65 7.3 4.7
North Wales 66 53 50 60 6.7 4.0
Mid Wales 54 40 41 71 6.6 4.7
South West Wales 61 48 48 63 7.5 4.7
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015 Base for columns 1-3: All establishments (UK – 91,210; Wales – 6,027; South East Wales – 2,395; North Wales – 1,528; Mid Wales – 742; South West Wales – 1,362). Percentages of staff receiving training are based on all employment rather than all establishments, figures therefore show the proportion of staff within each subgroup trained over the last 12 months. Base for columns 4-6: All establishments that train (UK – 69,541; Wales – 4,356; South East Wales – 1,783; North Wales – 1,138; Mid Wales – 485; South West Wales - 950). Note that ‘days per employee’ is based upon employment across all establishments.
Caring, leisure and other services was the occupation most likely to have received training,
as 82 per cent of staff in this occupation in North Wales had received training in the last 12
months (Figure 6.5).
The occupations least likely to have received training in South East Wales were managers
(37 per cent) and administrative / clerical staff (also 37 per cent).
6 In addition to more formal training, employers were also asked about less formal wider development
activities. In North Wales, 84 per cent of establishments provided these wider development opportunities. These consisted of supervision guiding employees through their job role (provided by 73 per cent of establishments), providing staff with opportunities to spend time learning through watching others perform their role (70 per cent), and allowing staff to perform tasks that go beyond their strict job role and providing feedback on how well they had done (66 per cent).
Page 67 of 87
Figure 6.5: Proportion of staff trained over the last 12 months by occupation
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015 Base: All establishments with staff in each occupation
Job specific training was the most common type of training – provided by 86 per cent of
employers who had provided any training in North Wales (Figure 6.6). This is training
aimed at developing the skills of a particular occupation or job role. The next most
common type of training was health and safety / first aid training (78 per cent), followed by
basic induction training (68 per cent). Factoring in both basic and more extensive
induction training, 69 per cent of employers who trained had provided some form of
induction training.
Page 68 of 87
Figure 6.6: Types of training provided
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015 Base: All establishments that train (North Wales – 1,138; Wales – 4,356).
In the 12 months preceding the survey, 40 per cent of employers who had provided any
training had used online training or e-learning and 36 per cent had used other types of
self-learning.
Of those employers in North Wales who provided training, 52 per cent had funded or
arranged any training that was intended to lead to a nationally recognised qualification.
This was 54 per cent in Wales. Of staff that had received training in North Wales, 22 per
cent had received training intended to lead to a nationally recognised qualification (21 per
cent in Wales).
Whilst two-thirds (66 per cent) of employers in North Wales had provided training in the
last 12 months, around half of these (49 per cent) said they would have liked to provide
more training than they did. There were two key barriers felt by employers that prevented
them providing more training (Figure 6.7) – a lack of funds for training / training is
expensive (reported by 49 per cent of employers in South East Wales who wanted to
provide more training) and that they can’t spare more staff time (48 per cent).
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Lesser cited reasons included difficulties finding the time to organise training (16 per cent),
difficulties finding flexible training providers (7 per cent), and a lack of appropriate training /
qualifications (6 per cent).
Figure 6.7: Barriers to providing more training
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015 Base: All establishments who would have provided more training in the past 12 months if they could (North Wales – 577; Wales – 2,210).
Those establishments that did not provide any training (34 per cent of establishments in
North Wales) were asked the reasons for this (Figure 6.8). The most common reason by
far was the perception that all their staff were fully proficient and therefore training was not
needed (reported by 62 per cent of North Wales employers that didn’t provide any
training).
Other reasons included no money available for training (10 per cent), staff training being
arranged and funded elsewhere (10 per cent), training not being considered a priority (8
per cent), and no training available in the relevant subject area (6 per cent).
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Figure 6.8: Reasons for not providing training in the previous 12 months
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015 Base: All establishments that do not provide training (North Wales – 384; Wales – 1,631).
Employers in Wales spent £2.1bn on training in 2015, an increase on the £1.6bn spent in
2011 (Table 6.9). Training expenditure in North Wales stayed relatively stable over the
period, around £0.4bn.
Spend per person trained and per employee in North Wales was £2,490 and £1,500 in
2015. This was an increase on 2011, but a lower than in 2013.
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Table 6.9: Total training expenditure and training spend per person trained and per employee (£’s)
2011 2013 2015 Total
spend Per
person trained
Per employee
Total spend
Per person trained
Per employee
Total spend
Per person trained
Per employee
UK 43.8bn 2,970 1,620 43.0bn 2,560 1,600 45.4bn 2,610 1,640 Wales 1.6bn 2,510 1,410 1.9bn 2,690 1,660 2.1bn 2,760 1,750 South East Wales 0.8bn 2,420 1,460 0.9bn 2,840 1,630 1.2bn 3,180 2,060
North Wales 0.4bn 2,260 1,340 0.5bn 2,650 1,820 0.4bn 2,490 1,500
Mid Wales 0.2bn 4,080 2,090 0.1bn 3,310 1,470 0.2bn 2,870 2,020
South West Wales 0.3bn 2,570 1,150 0.4bn 2,590 1,620 0.3bn 2,010 1,270
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015 Base: Establishments completing the Investment in Training study. 2011 Base – UK – 11,027; Wales – 1,483; South East Wales - 581; North Wales - 380; Mid Wales - 187; South West Wales - 335. 2013 Base – UK – 12,522; Wales – 1,361; South East Wales - 581; North Wales - 336; Mid Wales - 155; South West Wales - 288. 2015 Base – UK – 12,614; Wales – 1,234; South East Wales - 505; North Wales - 281; Mid Wales - 153; South West Wales - 295. Note: figures for spend per person trained and per employee have been rounded to the nearest £10. Training expenditure figures for 2011 and 2013 have not been adjusted for inflation.
6.6 High performance working practices
High Performance Working (HPW) is defined by UKCES as a general approach to
managing organisations that aims to stimulate more effective employee involvement and
commitment in order to achieve high levels of performance. An establishment is deemed
to be a HPW establishment if it had adopted at least 14 out of 21 HPW practices (listed in
Table 6.10, grouped into five factors).
Table 6.10: High Performance Working (HPW) practices according to the five factors Factor HPW practices
Planning Training plan, annual performance review, training budget, work shadowing, business plan, equal opportunities policy, training needs assessment
Autonomy Task variety, task discretion, flexible working Skills On or off the job training, formal performance review after training Rewards Bonus scheme, performance related pay, flexible benefits Organisation Investors in People (IIP), ISO 9000, trade union consultation, employee
consultation, working in teams, process to identify talented individuals
In North Wales, 11 per cent of employers were HPW employers, in line with the figures for
Wales and the UK (Table 6.11). The table also gives the proportion of establishments that
had adopted any practices under the five factors. The mean number of HPW practices
adopted per establishment was 7.9, similar to 8.0 in Wales as a whole.
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Table 6.11: Employer adoption of High Performance Working (HPW) practices UK
%
Wales
%
South East Wales
%
North Wales
%
Mid Wales
%
South West Wales
%
HPW employer 12 11 15 11 6 9 Planning 96 95 94 97 91 95 Autonomy 73 74 72 76 82 73 Skills 67 65 65 66 61 64 Rewards 56 45 49 43 36 45 Organisation 42 41 46 40 29 39
Mean number of HPW practices adopted
8.4 8.0 8.5 7.9 7.2 7.8
Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015 Base: All establishments in Module 1 of the survey (UK – 45,392; Wales – 3,046; South East Wales – 1,208; North Wales – 772; Mid Wales – 376; South West Wales – 690).
6.7 Product Market Strategies
Product market strategies (PMS) describe the ways in which private sector establishments
choose to differentiate and position the products and services they provide within the
markets in which they operate. Employers operating ‘higher’ product market strategies
offer greater opportunity for sustainable business growth and productivity which should, in
turn, place a greater demand on skills.
PMS in the Employer Skills Survey was determined by private sector employers rating
their establishments on a five-point scale, compared to other establishments in the same
industries, in terms of:
the extent to which their competitive success depended on price
the extent to which the establishment tended to lead the way in their industry in
terms of the development of new products, materials or techniques
the extent to which the establishment competed in a ‘premium quality’ product
market as opposed to a ‘standard or basic quality’ product market
the extent to which they offered goods or services with a substantial amount of
customisation according to customer requirements.
In order to discern the overall product market strategies of each establishment, the
responses to the four product market ‘position statements’ were aggregated to derive a
composite PMS score. These composite scores were then converted to a fivefold
classification ranging from ‘very low’ to ‘very high’. A ‘very high’ composite score indicated
that the employer tended to lead the way and innovate in its sector, tended not to compete
on price and/or tended to offer a premium and/or highly customised product or service.
Conversely, a ‘very low’ composite score indicated that the employer tended not to do any
of these things (Table 6.12).
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In North Wales, 13 per cent of private sector establishments were classified as having a
very high PMS score and a further 29 per cent having a high PMS score.
Table 6.12: Product Market Strategy scores Very low
%
Low
%
Medium
%
High
%
Very high
%
UK 4 13 25 29 16 Wales 6 15 26 27 13 South East Wales 5 13 26 29 15 North Wales 5 14 27 29 13 Mid Wales 9 19 27 18 12 South West Wales 7 17 24 27 12 Source: Employer Skills Survey 2015 Base: All establishments in the private sector (UK – 75,639; Wales – 4,942; South East Wales – 1,911; North Wales – 1,272; Mid Wales – 614; South West Wales – 1,145). Figures do not sum to 100% due to ‘don’t know’ responses.
Conclusion
Skills deficiencies affect only a small proportion of employers in North Wales, but where
they do exist they can have negative consequences for the business.
The most common response to skills deficiencies within an employer’s workforce was to
increase training activity / spend or increase / expand trainee programmes.
Expenditure on training per person trained and per employee in North Wales has fallen
slightly since 2013, but is higher than it was in 2011.
Whilst a small proportion of employers experience skills deficiencies, around a third of
employers (35 per cent) have staff whose skills and qualifications are in excess of what
they require for their current job role. If these additional skills and qualifications were put
to appropriate use, there may be benefits to employers and workers.
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Chapter 7: Projections of the labour market Key points
Employment in North Wales is projected to increase by 9,900 between 2014 and 2024, from 328,300 to 338,200. This is an increase of 3 per cent.
Replacement demand (the need to replace those who leave the labour market) is projected to be much higher than the net change in the number employed.
Replacement demand in North Wales is projected to be 128,200. Combining this with the net change in the number employed (expansion demand), there is a total employment requirement for 138,100 in North Wales between 2014 and 2024.
Wholesale and retail trade has the largest projected increase in employment of 3,700.
On a proportional basis, the sectors with the largest projected increases are water and sewerage, finance and insurance, and information technology. However, due to their smaller size, their combined increase (1,500) is far less than the increase for wholesale and retail trade.
Declines are projected in a number of sectors, including the rest of manufacturing (-2,800), agriculture (-2,800), and engineering (-1,200). However, due to the need to replace workers who have left the labour market, there will still be positive demand in these sectors.
In terms of occupations, large employment increases are projected for higher skilled occupations in the managerial, professional, and associate professional and technical groups.
In addition, the largest increase in the number employed is projected for those in caring personal service occupations and the largest percentage increase is for customer service occupations.
A sharp decline is projected for secretarial and related occupations. There are also losses for some occupations under skilled trades, for process, plant and machine operatives, and for sales occupations.
Due to replacement demand, all occupations have positive total requirements. Replacement demand is largest in caring personal service occupations, elementary administration and service occupations, and administrative occupations, at 12,000, 11,400 and 10,800.
By qualification level, increases in employment are projected for those holding qualifications at level 4 and above, whilst large declines are projected for those with low or no qualifications.
As with declining sectors and occupations, there will still be opportunities for people with low or no qualifications due to replacement demand.
7.1 Introduction
In addition to understanding the current position of the labour market and the issues that
employers are facing, for planning purposes there is value in considering the likely future
path of the labour market. This chapter focusses on a regional analysis of the quantitative
labour market projections from Working Futures 2014-24. Unless otherwise stated, figures
are for North Wales.
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These projections represent just one possible future – actions taken now and in the near
future can change the projections contained in this chapter.
7.2 What is Working Futures?
Working Futures 2014-2024 (Wilson et al., 2016)7 is the sixth in a series of decade-long
projections of the UK’s labour market, providing projections for output and the demand and
supply of skills between 2014 and 2024. Published by the UK Commission for
Employment and Skills (UKCES), Working Futures draws on the best available evidence,
in the form of hard data on demographics, education, employment and the wider economy,
and applies a set of proven models to these to work through how they are likely to evolve
over a ten year timescale. UKCES consider it to be the leading source for UK labour
market projections because its 10 year forecasts are:8
comprehensive: it covers the entire UK labour market, investigating how different
industry sectors’ prospects interact, with some expanding and some contracting,
and each changing in different ways;
robust: it draws on the full range of published statistics to provide an employment
baseline by sector, occupation and local area, and uses sophisticated modelling to
forecast how these different dimensions are likely to evolve; and
granular: by providing a breakdown by sector and occupation, it allows us to
understand not only the likely broad changes in the labour market, but also the
implications for the skills mix in each industry sector.
Even so, as this is projections data the information must be used with caution and readers
should be aware of the following caveat:
As with all projections and forecasts, the results presented in Working Futures
should be regarded as indicative of likely trends and orders of magnitude given a
continuation of past patterns of behaviour and performance, rather than precise
forecasts of the future. Whilst Working Futures refers to its figures as ‘employment’,
the main source for the production of projections is Workforce Jobs data. This
measures jobs rather than persons in employment, and figures for 2014 will
therefore be greater than 2014 Annual Population Survey estimates of employment,
as some individuals may hold more than one job.
For this reason, the focus should be on the general trends projected to occur, not on
specific figures.9 The Working Futures outputs in this chapter have been rounded to the
nearest hundred. Percentages are based on unrounded figures.
7 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-labour-market-projections-2014-to-2024 8 Working Futures 2014-2024: Headline report (April 2016).
9 In 2002, London Economics produced a review of regional economic forecasting models in Wales, noting
that forecasts ‘can have a value as an input to a coherent framework for organising one’s thinking about the future. However, less attention should be paid to the precise point estimates shown in the forecasts for the various economic indicators and more attention should be given to the intuition behind the forecast.’ It also noted that forecasts using regional data will be less reliable than those using national data. The paper is
Page 76 of 87
Employment projections, such as those from Working Futures, are just one piece of the
evidence jigsaw required when determining what the future of the labour market will look
like. For example, if Working Futures were being used as part of the evidence base for
planning future provision, current and anticipated movements in the economy / labour
market (i.e. emerging major infrastructure projects) should also be considered which may
not be picked up via Working Futures, especially those occurring on a local/regional level,
along with the provision being provided through other routes.10
The tables make reference to expansion demand, replacement demand and the total
requirement. These can be summarised as:
Expansion demand – the net change in the number of jobs;
Replacement demand – the need for employers to replace workers due to mortality,
retirement or other reasons11; and
Total requirement – the sum of expansion and replacement demand.
Due to data limitations, replacement demand projections are based on the assumption that
the general patterns of age structure and rates of flow are common across all sectors and
regions. This will not be true in practice, although they are occupation-specific at the UK
level. For this reason replacement demand results at the sector level should be
considered as merely indicative. Due to the way in which region projections are
constructed, they will not sum to all Wales totals.
7.3 What does Working Futures say about the future of the labour market?
Working Futures projections suggest that employment in Wales is projected to grow by 3.8
per cent between 2014 and 2024 (Table 7.1). Across the UK as a whole, employment
growth is projected to occur at 5.5 per cent.
Table 7.1: Projected employment levels and change, by region 2014-2024 2014 2024 Change % Change
UK 33,167,000 34,992,400 1,825,400 5.5
Wales 1,412,300 1,465,900 53,600 3.8
South East Wales 671,700 701,000 29,300 4.4
North Wales 328,300 338,200 9,900 3.0
Mid Wales 104,100 105,200 1,100 1.0
South West Wales 312,100 324,600 12,500 4.0
Source: Working Futures 2014-2024
available at: https://www.webarchive.org.uk/wayback/archive/20151130104630/http://www.learningobservatory.com/uploads/publications/209.pdf 10
For example, if determining optimal provision levels for higher education to meet demand, notice should be taken of further education courses that could provide a similar outcome. 11 Due to a lack of reliable data on occupational and geographical mobility, Working Futures focusses on retirements and other reasons for leaving the workforce semi permanently (such as family formation).
Page 77 of 87
An increase in employment from 328,300 to 338,200 is projected in North Wales, resulting
in around 9,900 more people being in employment in 2024 compared to 2014. This is a
projected increase in employment of 3.0 per cent. Across Wales, the projected increase in
employment between 2014 and 2024 is 54,000, from 1.412m to 1.466m.
In addition to the increase in the number of people in employment, there is also a need to
replace workers who have left the labour market due to a variety of reasons. This is
known as replacement demand. This replacement demand is far greater than the net
change in employment (expansion demand) at 128,200, resulting in a net requirement of
138,100 between 2014 and 2024 in North Wales. This can be seen on an annual basis
between 2014 and 2024 in Figure 7.1.
Figure 7.1: Projected annual expansion demand, replacement demand and the total (net) requirement in North Wales, 2014-2024
Source: Working Futures 2014-2024
In addition to these over-arching findings, Working Futures also looks at projections of
future employment by sector, occupation and qualification level.
7.4 Projections by industrial sector
Regional Working Futures 2014-2024 results are based on a 22 industrial sector
definition.12 In North Wales, the sector with the largest projected increase in employment
between 2014 and 2024 is wholesale and retail trade, which has a projected increase of
3,700 (Table 7.2). This is projected to be the second largest sector in 2024, as it was in
2014, following health and social work, which is also projected to see a rise between 2014
12
For further information on sector definitions see Annex A.
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and 2024, albeit to a lesser extent (1,500). On a proportion basis, the largest increases
are projected to occur in the water and sewerage (16.6 per cent), finance and insurance
(14.8 per cent) and information technology (14.0 per cent) sectors. However, the
combined growth for these sectors (1,500) is still far less than that projected for wholesale
and retail trade due to their relatively smaller size.
Declines in employment are projected across a number of sectors including the rest of
manufacturing (-2,800), agriculture (-2,800) and engineering (-1,200). Due to the need to
replace workers who have left the labour market, there will still be positive demand for all
these sectors between 2014 and 2024.
The sectors with the highest projected replacement demand are health and social work
(19,700), wholesale and retail trade (18,400), education (12,600) and the rest of
manufacturing (10,700).
Table 7.2: Projected employment change in North Wales, by sector, 2014-2024 2014 2024 Exp. % Exp. Rep. Total
Agriculture 10,400 7,600 -2,800 -27.1 4,000 1,200
Mining and quarrying - - - - - -
Food drink and tobacco 8,400 8,400 100 0.9 3,000 3,100
Engineering 4,600 3,400 -1,200 -26.4 1,500 200
Rest of manufacturing 32,200 29,400 -2,800 -8.7 10,700 7,900
Electricity and gas 1,700 1,700 100 4.1 600 600
Water and sewerage 2,700 3,100 400 16.6 1,100 1,500
Construction 24,100 26,200 2,100 8.9 8,500 10,700
Wholesale and retail trade 46,000 49,700 3,700 8.1 18,400 22,100
Transport and storage 11,800 12,300 400 3.6 4,600 5,000
Accommodation and food 22,700 25,300 2,600 11.2 9,800 12,400
Media 3,000 2,700 -300 -8.7 1,100 900
Information technology 3,600 4,100 500 14.0 1,300 1,800
Finance and insurance 3,700 4,300 500 14.8 1,500 2,000
Real estate 5,000 5,500 500 10.5 2,100 2,700
Professional services 14,500 16,300 1,800 12.6 6,000 7,800
Support services 17,700 19,700 2,000 11.1 7,200 9,100
Public admin. and defence 17,100 17,000 -100 -0.8 6,300 6,200
Education 30,700 30,400 -300 -0.9 12,600 12,300
Health and social work 49,200 50,700 1,500 3.1 19,700 21,200
Arts and entertainment 8,300 9,000 700 8.5 3,500 4,200
Other services 10,400 10,800 400 3.5 4,400 4,800
All industries 328,300 338,200 9,900 3.0 128,200 138,100
Source: Working Futures 2014-2024
Notes: figures have been rounded to the nearest hundred, although percentages are based on unrounded
figures.
Figures for mining and quarrying have been omitted due to an insufficient base size.
‘Exp.’ denotes expansion demand, ‘Rep.’ denotes replacement demand, and ‘Total’ denotes the total
requirement.
Replacement demand and total requirement figures for sectors should be considered as indicative only.
Where figures are missing, this is due to them being below the minimum 2014 base size of 1,000.
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7.5 Projections by occupation
The period between 2014 and 2024 is projected to see large expansion-based
employment increases for higher skilled occupations in the managerial, professional, and
associate professional and technical groups (Table 7.3). Only protective service
occupations are projected to decline between 2014 and 2024 out of those groups. These
occupational groups are likely to require individuals to hold higher level qualifications. The
increase in these three occupational groups (SOC 2010 Major groups 1-313) is a
continuation of longer-term trends, with this group projected to account for 39.2 per cent of
employment in North Wales in 2024 compared to 36.0 per cent in 2014.
In addition to higher skilled occupations, a large increase in employment is projected for
those in caring personal service occupations. This increase of 3,300 is the largest volume
increase of any occupation and is projected to take employment in this occupation from
27,800 in 2014 to 31,000 in 2024. This can be seen as a reflection of the demographic
issues facing North Wales, Wales, and the UK.
Customer service occupations are projected to see the largest percentage rise of all
occupations - an increase of 19.6 per cent between 2014 and 2024, rising from 5,300 to
6,300.
Regarding mid-skill level occupations, a sharp decline is projected for secretarial and
related occupations, at 30.9 per cent (a decline of 2,400). Administrative occupations are
projected to decline in employment by 700 (2.6 per cent). Losses are also projected at
13.1 per cent for skilled agricultural and related trades, and 9.3 per cent for skilled metal,
electrical and electronic trades and textiles, printing and other skilled trades. An increase
of 4.2 per cent is projected for skilled construction and building trades, but the wider skilled
trades occupation (SOC 2010 Major group 5) is projected to see net job losses up to 2024.
For lower skilled occupations, growth projections are mixed. As noted above, high levels
of growth are projected for caring personal service occupations and customer service
occupations. However, considerable losses are projected for process, plant and machine
operatives and sales occupations.
All occupations, even those that are projected to decline, will require new people to come
into these occupations to replace those who leave the labour market. Replacement
demand is largest in caring personal service occupations, elementary administration and
service occupations, and administrative occupations, which have projected replacement
demand of 12,000, 11,400 and 10,800.
Due to this replacement demand, the total requirement is positive for all occupations. The
total requirement between 2014 and 2024 in North Wales is highest for:
caring personal service occupations (15,300);
elementary administration and service occupations (11,500);
13
For further information on occupation definitions see Annex B.
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teaching and educational professionals (11,100);
health professionals (10,100);
administrative occupations (10,100);
business and public service associate professionals (8,300); and
corporate managers and directors (8,200).
The inclusion of elementary administration and service occupations on this list illustrates
the need for individuals to fill roles which may be considered lower skilled into the future.
Table 7.3: Projected employment change in North Wales, by occupation, 2014-2024
2014 2024 Exp. % Exp. Rep. Total
11 Corporate managers and directors 14,900 17,400 2,500 16.6 5,700 8,200
12 Other managers and proprietors 9,700 10,800 1,000 10.8 4,700 5,800
21 Science, research, engineering and technology professionals
10,400 11,400 1,000 9.9 3,200 4,200
22 Health professionals 18,000 20,800 2,800 15.6 7,300 10,100
23 Teaching and educational professionals
19,900 22,100 2,200 11.1 8,800 11,100
24 Business, media and public service professionals
9,900 11,300 1,400 13.9 4,300 5,600
31 Science, engineering and technology associate professionals
4,700 4,800 100 1.3 1,400 1,500
32 Health and social care associate professionals
6,000 6,800 900 15.0 2,300 3,200
33 Protective service occupations 3,300 3,100 -200 -5.9 800 600
34 Culture, media and sports occupations 5,100 5,700 600 11.9 2,200 2,800
35 Business and public service associate professionals
16,100 18,300 2,100 13.0 6,200 8,300
41 Administrative occupations 25,800 25,100 -700 -2.6 10,800 10,100
42 Secretarial and related occupations 7,700 5,300 -2,400 -30.9 3,400 1,000
51 Skilled agricultural and related trades 7,100 6,200 -900 -13.1 3,600 2,700
52 Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades
15,800 14,300 -1,500 -9.3 4,800 3,300
53 Skilled construction and building trades
16,200 16,900 700 4.2 5,500 6,100
54 Textiles, printing and other skilled trades
9,000 8,200 -800 -9.3 3,300 2,400
61 Caring personal service occupations 27,800 31,000 3,300 11.8 12,000 15,300
62 Leisure, travel and related personal service occupations
6,800 6,800 0 -0.6 3,100 3,100
71 Sales occupations 20,400 19,100 -1,300 -6.6 7,800 6,400
72 Customer service occupations 5,300 6,300 1,000 19.6 1,900 2,900
81 Process, plant and machine operatives
22,200 19,500 -2,600 -11.8 6,600 4,000
82 Transport and mobile machine drivers and operatives
9,600 10,100 500 5.2 4,300 4,800
91 Elementary trades and related occupations
8,200 8,500 200 3.0 2,800 3,100
92 Elementary administration and service occupations
28,300 28,400 100 0.4 11,400 11,500
All occupations 328,300 338,200 9,900 3.0 128,200 138,100
Source: Working Futures 2014-2024
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Notes: figures have been rounded to the nearest hundred, although percentages are based on unrounded
figures. ‘Exp.’ denotes expansion demand, ‘Rep.’ denotes replacement demand, and ‘Total’ denotes the
total requirement.
7.6 Projections by qualification
Whilst occupation level may be used as a proxy for skills, it is also possible to look at how
the qualification levels of those in employment are projected to change between 2014 and
2024.
Figure 7.2 shows the changes that have occurred and are projected to occur between
2004 and 2024 in North Wales. The expansion of higher level qualifications amongst
those in employment can clearly be seen. Between 2004 and 2024, the proportion of
those in employment who are qualified at QCF level 4-6 is projected to have almost
doubled from 21.4 per cent to 39 per cent. The proportion in employment qualified to
levels 7-8 is also projected to have almost doubled, from 5.7 per cent to 10.9 per cent.
This means that by 2024 it is projected that half of those in employment in North Wales will
hold qualifications at level 4 or above. This is in contrast to around a quarter in 2004.
The opposite effect can be seen for those holding no qualifications. Whilst 13 per cent of
those in employment in North Wales held no qualifications in 2004, this is projected to fall
to just 2 per cent in 2024. Similarly the proportion of those in employment qualified to level
1 is projected to decline from 18.3 per cent to 8.8 per cent. A small decline is projected for
the proportion in employment qualified to level 2, whilst there is relatively little change in
the proportion qualified to level 3.
Figure 7.2: Projections of employment by qualification level 2004-2024, North Wales
Source: Working Futures 2014-2024
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Looking at individual levels of qualification (Figure 3) reveals that it is QCF 6 that is the
main driver behind the projected increase in QCF level 4-6 between 2014 and 2024. Little
change is expected for QCF level 5, although increases are expected for QCF level 4.
Increases are projected for QCF level 7 and the number with QCF level 8 is also projected
to increase between 2014 and 2024.
Figure 7.3: Projections of employment change by disaggregated qualification level in North Wales, 1994-2024
Source: Working Futures 2014-2024
Whilst a large decline is projected in the proportion and number of those in employment
who hold no or low qualifications it is worth noting that significant replacement demands
will still be required in these areas (Table 7.4). Whilst the (combined) number of people in
employment with no or low qualifications (QCF level 1) is projected to decline by 28,500,
there will still be 25,400 people needed at these levels to replace those who have left the
labour market. This is also true for QCF levels 2 and 3 which are also projected to have
small losses in employment, but each require in excess of 25,000 to replace those who will
leave the labour market.
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Table 7.4: Projected change in qualification level of those in employment in North Wales, 2014-2024
2014 2024 Exp. Rep. Total
QCF 7-8 33,100 36,800 3,800 12,900 16,700
QCF 4-6 91,400 131,900 40,500 35,700 76,200
QCF 3 70,400 66,400 -4,000 27,500 23,500
QCF 2 68,200 66,400 -1,800 26,600 24,800
QCF 1 42,800 29,800 -12,900 16,700 3,800
No Qual 22,400 6,800 -15,600 8,700 -6,800
Total 328,300 338,200 9,900 128,200 138,100
% share % share % change
% of 2014 level
QCF 7-8 10.1 10.9 11.4 50.4
QCF 4-6 27.8 39.0 44.3 83.3
QCF 3 21.4 19.6 -5.7 33.3
QCF 2 20.8 19.6 -2.6 36.4
QCF 1 13.0 8.8 -30.2 8.8
No Qual 6.8 2.0 -69.6 -30.5
Total 100 100 3.0 42.1
Source: Working Futures 2014-2024
Notes: figures have been rounded to the nearest hundred, although percentages are based on unrounded
figures.
‘Exp.’ denotes expansion demand, ‘Rep.’ denotes replacement demand, and ‘Total’ denotes the total
requirement.
Conclusion
Projections suggest that there will be a continued movement towards higher qualifications
and higher skilled occupations, in North Wales and across the wider geography of Wales
and the UK. However, some lower skilled occupations show growth (with and caring
personal services and customer service occupations showing particularly high growth) and
there will be a need to replace those who have left the labour market across all sectors,
occupations and qualification levels.
Whilst projections data should be used with caution and relevant caveats should be noted,
many of the projected changes are likely to be in response to long-term trends in
demographics (the increase in caring personal service occupations) and technological
change (the decrease in secretarial and related occupations).
These projections represent just one possible future that we do not need to be constrained
by – actions taken now and in the near future can change what the labour market will look
like in 2024.
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Annex A: Working Futures 2014-2024: Sector definitions
The table below shows how the definition of six broad sectors used in Working Futures fits together with the more disaggregated 22 sector system also used. SIC 2007 (Standard Industry Classification) codes are also given. Working Futures – 6 Broad Sectors Working Futures – 22 Sectors
Number Name Number Name SIC2007
1 Primary sector and utilities 1 Agriculture (01-03)
2 Mining and quarrying (05-09)
6 Electricity and gas (35)
7 Water and sewerage (36-39)
2 Manufacturing 3 Food and drink (10-12)
4 Engineering (26-28)
5 Rest of manufacturing (13-25) (29-33)
3 Construction 8 Construction (41-43)
4 Trade, accommodation and transport 9 Wholesale and retail trade (45-47)
10 Transport and storage (49-53)
11 Accommodation and food (55-56)
5 Business and other services 12 Media (58-60) (63)
13 IT (61-62)
14 Finance and insurance (64-66)
15 Real estate (68)
16 Professional services (69-75)
17 Support services (77-82)
21 Arts and entertainment (90-93)
22 Other services (94-96)
6 Non-market services 18 Public administration and defence
(84)
19 Education (85)
20 Health and social work (86-88)
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Annex B: Working Futures 2014-2024: Occupation definitions The table below shows how the definition of nine broad occupations (SOC 2010 Major Group) used in Working Futures fits together with the more
disaggregated 25 occupation system also used (SOC 2010 Minor Group). SOC 2010 (Standard Occupational Classification) codes are also given.
Working Futures – 9 Broad Occupations Working Futures – 25 Occupations
SOC 2010 Major Group code
Name SOC 2010 Minor Group code
Name
1 Managers, directors and senior officials 11 Corporate managers and directors
12 Other managers and proprietors
2 Professional occupations 21 Science, research, engineering and technology professionals
22 Health professionals
23 Teaching and educational professionals
24 Business, media and public service professionals
3 Associate professional and technical 31 Science, engineering and technology associate professionals
32 Health and social care associate professionals
33 Protective service occupations
34 Culture, media and sports occupations
35 Business and public service associate professionals
4 Administrative and secretarial 41 Administrative occupations
42 Secretarial and related occupations
5 Skilled trades occupations 51 Skilled agricultural and related trades
52 Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades
53 Skilled construction and building trades
54 Textiles, printing and other skilled trades
6 Caring, leisure and other service 61 Caring personal service occupations
62 Leisure, travel and related personal service occupations
7 Sales and customer service 71 Sales occupations
72 Customer service occupations
8 Process, plant and machine operatives 81 Process, plant and machine operatives
82 Transport and mobile machine drivers and operatives
9 Elementary occupations 91 Elementary trades and related occupations
92 Elementary administration and service occupations
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Annex C: Further reading This annex provides a series of links that provide further detail on the topics and sources covered in the North Wales Regional LMI Report. StatsWales
StatsWales is the Welsh Government’s free-to-use online repository for detailed statistical
data for Wales. StatsWales allows users to view and manipulate datasets on-screen,
including the ability to produce charts. Data can be downloaded in a variety of formats and
can be saved and shared. The system covers nearly 1,000 datasets, including key
information on Wales’ population, economy, government spending and performance as
well as the environment, education, transport and health.
Much of the information included in chapters two to five is taken from StatsWales and it is
possible to manipulate this data in others ways of interest to the reader:
https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue
Statistics and Research on Wales.gov
The Statistics and Research section of the Welsh Government website is the major
independent source for current and historical releases of official statistics and social and
economic research in Wales. It contains a range of reports and bulletins on the data
included in this report:
http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/?lang=en
This includes quarterly regional economic and labour market profiles:
http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/regional-economic-labour-market-
profiles/?lang=en
Welsh language skills needs in eight sectors
Chapter five draws from a survey of employer views on Welsh language skills. The full
report can be found here:
http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/welsh-language-skills-needs-eight-
sectors/?lang=en
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Employer Skills Survey
The Employer Skills Survey is the source for employer views on skills and training in
chapter six. There is more detail available on this survey, as shown below:
Employer Skills Survey 2015 Wales Report: http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/uk-commission-employment-skills-employer-skills-survey/?lang=en
Employer Skills Survey 2015 Wales Toolkit: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ukces-employer-skills-survey-2015-wales-toolkit Employer Skills Survey 2015 UK Report: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ukces-employer-skills-survey-2015-uk-report Employer Skills Survey 2015 UK Report Supplementary Documents: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ukces-employer-skills-survey-2015-supplementary-documents Working Futures The employment projections from chapter seven are taken from Working Futures 2014-24. Further material is available below. UK Commission for Employment and Skills Working Futures 2014-2024 webpage:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-labour-market-projections-2014-to-2024
Working Futures 2014-2024 Main Report:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/513801/Wor
king_Futures_final_evidence_report.pdf
Working Futures 2014-2024 Annexes (contains Wales data):
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/523332/Wor
king_Futures_Annexes_1424.pdf
Working Futures 2014-2024 Wales Excel workbooks:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ukces-labour-market-projections-for-wales-
2014-to-2024
