Regional (incl. Natura 2000) scenario assessments of

nitrogen critical load exceedancesand of

tentative impacts on species richness

Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Max Posch, Jaap SlootwegCoordination Centre for Effects (CCE) at RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

www.wge-cce.org

The activities of the CCE are performed by order and for the account of: • (The Working Group on Effects within) the trust-fund for the effect oriented activities under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution• Ministriy of Infrastructure and the Environment (Netherlands)• Ministry of Public Health (Netherlands)• National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM, Netherlands)• Grant agreement no. 282910, Effects of Climate Change on Air Pollution Impacts and Response Strategies for European Ecosystems (FP7-ECLAIRE)• Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS, France; support of chair women of the ICP M&M)

Contents• Impacts of excessive nitrogen inputs• What are critical loads and how obtained ?• Application in policy support• Scenario analysis of impacts on receptors including

Natura 2000 areas• Objectives of effect oriented (& CCE) work in 2014

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Nitrogen impacts + illustrations

Short summary

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Ecosystem services:

• Supporting (‘underpinning role’)

(e.g. biomass production, soil

formation, nutrient and water cycling)

• Provisioning(e.g. food, fresh water, fuel, wood)

• Regulating(e.g. water purification, water and

climate regulation, pollination)

• Cultural(e.g. education, recreation, aesthetic)

LIFE ON EARTH - BIODIVERSITY

HUMAN WELL-BEING

Biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being(Source: Working Group on Effects, 2013);

http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/env/documents/2013/air/wge/No.1__Benefits_of_air_pollution_control_for_biodiversity_and_ecosystem_services.pdf

‘Biodiversity enhances the ability of ecosystems to

maintain multiple functions’ (Maestre et al. 2012. Science)

‘Species-richness has positive impacts on ecosystem

services’ (Gamfeldt et al. 2013. Nature Comm.)

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Nitrogen impacts on aquatic plant species(Source: Working Group on Effects, 2013)

Num

ber

ofw

ater

pla

nt s

peci

es

0

5

10

15

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Nitrate concentration (mg l-1)

Maximum nitrate

concentration for

drinking water

Concentration limit of nitrate in drinking water

is too high to protect natural ecosystems

James et al. 2005. Freshwater Biology.

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Terrestrial species richness as explanatory indicator

For N-impacts on biodiversity

0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50

Spe

cies

rich

ness

Nitrogen deposition (kg ha-1 yr-1)

… extrapolated to reflect scenario specific (relative) species

richness (%) in Natura 2000 grasslands in Europe…

Decreasing nitrogen deposition enhances plant species diversity …

Stevens et al. 2010.

Env. Pollution.

on

Acid grasslands

Europe

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

What are critical loads

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Critical loads

• Defined as “ a quantitative estimate of an exposure to one or more pollutants below which significant harmful effects on specified sensitive elements of the environment do not occur according to present knowledge" (Nilsson and Grennfelt, 1988).

• A critical load is an indicator for sustainability of an ecosystem (biodiversity, ecosystem services,…)

• Critical loads can be computed using so-called mass balance models, or established from empirical relationships between dose (deposition) and impacts

• European critical loads are compiled under the Convention on LRTAP, for ecosystems classified in the European Nature Information System (EUNIS; Davies and Moss, 1999)…

• …enabling any regional (Natura 2000) impact assessment (e.g. with GAINS) of N-emission reduction scenarios

J-P.Hettelingh(CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Critical load modelling(see “Mapping Manual”, www.icpmapping.org for model details)

Terrestrial ecosystems:• CL(acidity) = f (toxic [Al] < Base Cations in soil solution)• CL(nutrient N) = f (‘acceptable’ N leaching…depending on what

you wish to protect )

Aquatic ecosystems:• CL(acidity) = f (acceptable Acid Neutralizing Capacity…used to

‘back calculate’ deposition avoiding fish dieback)• CL(nutrient N) = f (‘acceptable’ [N] in water…depending on

what you wish to protect)

• …Sustainability requires that critical loads are not exceeded !

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Trend of critical load exceedance since 1880(exceedance = deposition minus critical load)

Aci

Nut

1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Ecosystem area exceeded (%)

Aci

Nut

1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400CL exceedance (eq/ha/yr)

Area at risk of acidity and nutrient nitrogen

Exceedances of criticalloads of acidity and nutrient nitrogen

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Application in policy support

Short summary

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP-Conventie)

http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/conv/

CCE

Integrated Assessment

Policysupport

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Science for environmental policy:providing a level playing field to knowledge for policy negotiations !

• Effect oriented science under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP)

• Support of air pollution abatement policies (LRTAP strategy2020) including synergy with EU thematic, climate andbiodiversity strategies

• Institutional collaboration (including with JNCC)• National collaboration (EU-MS and LRTAP-Parties)• ….collaboration for EEA projects, in FP7-ECLAIRE…

And finally• Effect based integrated assessment of policy alternatives in

support of air pollution abatement policies [under changes of biodiversity and climate]…(Today, Theme 1 WG3)

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Effects-based Integrated Assessment for Policy strategies

DrivingForces

Pressure StateImpact

Endpoints

TFIAM methods and analysisPolicy response

EU, UNECE, National

Human health Human wellbeing

ProvisioningServices

RegulatingServices

SupportingServices

CulturalServices

No net loss of Biodiversity and Ecosystem services

BiodiversityPolicies

Air pollution abatementPolicies

Climate changepolicies

e.g. avoidcritical loadexceedance

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Stimulating collaboration between critical load- and Habitat Directive community

• Working Group on Effects (WGE) produces indicators for use in effect-oriented European policy support, including the CCE production of European critical load database…:– …in collaboration with National Focal Centres nominated in EU-Member

States and Parties under the LRTAP Convention…– …by means of regular “calls for data” and yearly “CCE workshops”– …in 2010 in collaboration with JNCC (Clare Whitfield) and ETC-

Biodiversity (Doug Evans)– …to stimulate habitat experts and NFCs to collaborate…– …in support of EU/LRTAP air policies and Habitats Directive community

(Art. 17 reporting)– …improve knowledge on biological effects of exceedances (EU and

LRTAP Convention)– …seek applications with EU climate and biodiversity 2020-strategies

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Scenario analysis ofexceedances and species richness

in European ecosystems and Natura 2000 areas

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Exceedances and area at risk of nutrient N(source: Hettelingh and Posch, CCE 2013, EEA technical report in prep.)

eq ha-1a-1

no exceedance<200200 - 400400 - 700700 - 1200> 1200

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

1980 eq ha-1a-1

no exceedance<200200 - 400400 - 700700 - 1200> 1200

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

1990 eq ha-1a-1

no exceedance<200200 - 400400 - 700700 - 1200> 1200

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

2000

eq ha-1a-1

no exceedance<200200 - 400400 - 700700 - 1200> 1200

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

2010 eq ha-1a-1

no exceedance<200200 - 400400 - 700700 - 1200> 1200

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

2020 eq ha-1a-1

no exceedance<200200 - 400400 - 700700 - 1200> 1200

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

2030

75% 79% 69%

55% in all; 65% in N2k60% in all; 73% in N2k 53% in all; 61% in N2k

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Act unilaterally ? e.g. critical load exceedances in most countries (e.g The Netherlands) cannot

sufficiently be curbed by national policies alone. (Today, Theme 1, WG2)

mol ha-1a-1

no exceedance<100100 - 200200 - 400400 - 700> 700

Exceedance of CLnutN - NL emissions only GP2020

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

mol ha-1a-1

no exceedance<100100 - 200200 - 400400 - 700> 700

Exceedance of CLnutN - no NL emissions GP2020

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

Exceedances of N-critical loads of depositions caused by Dutch emissions only, i.e. when all non-Dutch N emissionsare set to 0

Exceedances of N-critical loads ofDepositions caused by European country emissions, except NL, i.e.when only Dutch N emissionsare set to 0

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Sprich%< 7070 - 7575 - 8080 - 8585 - 90> 90

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

1980 Sprich%< 7070 - 7575 - 8080 - 8585 - 90> 90

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

1990 Sprich%< 7070 - 7575 - 8080 - 8585 - 90> 90

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

2000

Sprich%< 7070 - 7575 - 8080 - 8585 - 90> 90

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

2010 Sprich%< 7070 - 7575 - 8080 - 8585 - 90> 90

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

2020 Sprich%< 7070 - 7575 - 8080 - 8585 - 90> 90

Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-WCCE

2030

Average species richness (%) in E1, E2, E3 grasslands;numbers apply to Natura2000

71% 72% 76%

80% 82% 86% under MFRSource; Hettelingh and Posch (2013) , EEA technical Report, in prep.; D-R functions from Stevens etal., 2010

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Conclusions and recommendations• Natura 2000 areas at risk of excessive Nitrogen inputs,• Critical loads of nutrient nitrogen are computed to be

exceeded in 65% of Natura 2000 areas in 2020, • Plant species diversity is affected by excessive nitrogen

inputs causing adverse effects on multi functionality,• Effect oriented science can assist policy with knowledge on

trade-offs between:1. Acting unilaterally or act in multilateral frameworks, 2. Distinguishing between critical levels or critical load

exceedances, 3. Distinguishing between NOx or NH3, 4. Policy effects of e.g. habitat-Natura 2000, air pollution

abatement, climate change, biodiversity…

J-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013

Objectives in 2014

• Test dose-response functions derived from region soil-chemistry-vegetation assessments, following call for data 2012-2014 with National Focal Centres (NFCs)

• Test tentative novel critical thresholds for use in integrated assessment…– …addressing “no net loss of biodiversity” (each Member State may

submit its own indicators/targets to the CCE)– …continued focus on Natura 2000 areas

• Next CCE workshop and Task Force Modelling and Mapping in Rome (7-11 April 2014; see www.wge-cce.org)

• Disseminate knowledge: – De Vries, Hettelingh, Posch (eds.) Critical loads and dynamic risk

assessments of nitrogen, acidity and metals for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, (Springer, in prep.)

– Publish: CCE Status Report 2014 including NFC reportsJ-P.Hettelingh (CCE), www.wge-cce.org, JNCC workshop presentation, Peterborough, UK, 2-4 December 2013