1

Regional geography of Turkey

2

Some key figures in Turkish politics

Tansu Ciller

Suleyman Demirel

Recep Tayyip ErdoğanNecmettin Erbakan

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and Ismet Inonu

Abdullah Gül

3

• 1950: First democratic turnover

• 1960: Military intervenes against elected government

• 1963: Association agreement signed with the European Economic Community

• 1971: Military forces the government to resign again

• 1974: Turkey invades Northern Cyprus

• 1980: Major military coup in the context of political violence

• 1984: Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) launches war in the Southeast

• 1996: Necmettin Erbakan, an Islamist, becomes Prime Minister

• 1997: Erbakan forced to resign by the military

• 2002: AK Party victory; Abdullah Gül then Tayyip Erdoğan becomes Prime Minister

• 2007: AK Party wins again; Gül becomes President

• 2008-09: Major political standoff between the government and the courts

Timeline of Turkish politics

4

Turkish democratic development• Definition of the state– State as Kemalist– State as secular– State as Turkish?– State as European?

• Turkey as a guided democracy– Who is doing the guiding?– The role of the military coup and the constitution

• Key institutions– National Assembly and Prime Minister– President– Constitutional Court– National Security Council

• Party system– Fragmented center-right/center-left system– Nationalist, Islamist, Kurdish parties– Role of the electoral threshold: 10%

MP distribution 2007-2011

5

Civil conflict in Turkey• The role of minorities– Around 15% Kurdish– Around 15% Alevi

• The Kurdish civil war– About 40,000 killed– The importance of Northern Iraq to the conflict– The capture of Abdullah Öcalan– A renewal of civil violence?

• Right-left conflict– Battles between rightists and leftists in the 1970s– Political tensions over the role of Alevis

Abdullah Őcalan and friends

6

Islam and politics in Turkey• Types of political Islam– Militant: Hizbollah, Islamic Raiders of the Great East– Political parties

• Islamic political development– Role of the military/schools as builders of Islamic institutions– Creation of the Welfare Party in the 1980s– Islamic parties as swing coalition parties– Rise of Erbakan as PM in 1995 as leader of the Welfare Party– Rise of the Virtue Party– The Justice and Development Party finds the sweet spot in Turkish politics

• Key issues of contention– Corruption; Foreign policy– Palestine/Israel: Gaza flotilla– Veiling, Morality

7

Civil-military relations• Military as constitutional guardians– Attempts to control a wayward democracy– Defend Kemalism against public threats

• Attempts at constitutional reform– European Union negotiations as one catalyst– Limit punishments for insulting “Turkishness”– Reduce the autonomy of military officials– Direct public election of the President– Reduce autonomy of the Constitutional Court

• The Ergenekon trial (2008-present)– Background in the Susurluk scandal (1996)– “Deep state” plans to overthrow the government– Implication of high military officers and intellectual– Accusations of AKP politicizing the trial

Strong feelings about the “deep state”

8

Regional voting in Turkey 1999

9

Consolidation of AKP party support 2002-2011

2011 parliamentary results

10

Turkish attitudes about life under the AKP

2011 Pew Research Data

11

Turkish foreign relations• Turkey and the European Union– Long-standing negotiations for membership (2005-)– Domestic European politics and Turkish entry

• Turkey and the Middle East– Expanded ties with Syria, Libya—now a question– Activism in Palestine (Gaza flotilla)

• Regional diplomatic activism under the AKP– “No problems with neighbors” policy– Proactive force in regional solutions

• The challenge of Cyprus– Invaded Northern Cyprus in 1974 after a Greek-

supported coup in Cyprus– Has kept troops in the North pending a resolution– Only country to recognize the North as sovereign

2011 Pew Research Data

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu

12

Turkey-US relations• Turkey as a pillar of NATO– Joined in 1952 as ally in the Cold War– Second largest military in NATO

• Military and diplomatic cooperation– Joint military programs– US support for Turkey’s EU bid

• Divisive issues– 2003 invasion of Iraq and autonomy in

Northern Iraq– Sanctions against Iran– Interpretations of Turkish-Armenian history

• Popular attitudes towards the US– Positive perceptions of the US have dropped

drastically in the last decade

Pew Global Attitudes Data

13

Contemporary challenges• Democratic consolidation– Increasing incorporation of marginalized populations into governance– Instability in relations between the government, courts and military– Increasing concerns about media freedom

• Nationalism and the Kurdish question– Attempts to reform laws improving Kurdish identity rights– The nationalistic backlash

• Regional stability and the Arab revolts– Turkish economic and diplomatic deals with Arab autocrats– Need to quickly shift to a position favoring popular revolts– Economic and cultural exports– Refugee influx from Syria

• Iran and the nuclear program– Stable relations with Iran being challenged– Turkish attempts to be a mediator

14

Lecture terms—Turkey1980 Turkish coup

Abdullah Ocalan

Tansu Ciller

Necmettin Erbakan

Welfare Party

Tayyip Erdogan

Justice and Development Party (AKP)

Ergenekon trial