SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

18 Jul 2012

Regional

Daily

Top Views MK: Oil & Gas Wong Chew Hann 3 2H 2012: An Action-Packed Time Ahead | Overweight - We expect news and contract flows to be strong. We foresee 3 strong

themes featuring prominently in 2H. They are: (i) a strong pipeline of offshore fabrication awards; (ii) contract flows for floating solutions and (iii) continuous awards for marginal/ rejuvenation projects.

- We estimate up to MYR7b worth of jobs to be awarded over the next 18 months. We assess that up to five FPSOs are required for Malaysian waters. Following two RSC project awards in 2011, we have identified several projects - Angsi EOR, St Joseph EOR, Tanjung Bram EPS for 2012.

- We see exciting prospects for the offshore fabricators. MMHE and SapuraKencana. Bumi Armada, Perisai and Yinson are the primary plays in the floating solutions space. Bumi Armada, Dialog and SapuraKencana are the likeliest candidates to clinch PETRONAS’ marginal field RSC and EOR projects. We expect investor interest to return to the sector which has underperformed the KLCI in 1H 2012.

1Q12 REVIEW Mcap USD3.9b ADTV USD8.6m SG: Ascendas REIT (AREIT SP) Ong Kian Lin 4 REITs | A-REIT delivers again | BUY | Upside 14% - 1Q12 revenue at SGD142m, was 28% of ours and 26% of consensus

estimate. 1Q12 DPU at 3.53 SG-cts (up 0.9% QoQ and 10.3% YoY) was 26% of our forecast and consensus estimate. Occupancy rate for the portfolio and multi-tenanted buildings (MTB) improved to 94.6% and 90.1% respectively from 94.3% and 89.5% a quarter ago. Positive rental reversion on renewal range between 10%-21% throughout all segments of the portfolio.

- We raise our FY12-14F revenue and DPU by 1.1%-3.6% and 1.2%-4.8% respectively in view of better-than-expected rental reversions.

- We continue to like A-REIT for its stable DPU yield, healthy lease expiry and debt maturity profile, underpinned by a diverse portfolio. Importantly, A-REIT is also less vulnerable to asset erosion, with its defensive properties located primarily in Singapore. The stock currently trades at 6.4% FY12F yield and 1.1x P/BV. Reiterate BUY with a DDM-derived target price of SGD2.34 (prev. SGD2.23)

2Q12 PREVIEW Mcap USD24.7b ADTV USD12.4m SG: United Overseas Bank (UOB SP) Desmond Ch’ng 5 Financials | A softer 2Q expected | SELL | Downside 21% - 2Q12 results, due Aug 7, are likely to be softer QoQ, in our view. Some

features that we expect include a) stable loan expansion, b) a normalization of trading income and c) QoQ NIM contraction.

- The stock has outperformed its peers YTD (+22% vs 20% for DBS, 12% for OCBC). However, valuations are no longer cheap, in our view, with the stock trading at a 2012 P/BV of 1.4x for an ROE of 11.5% vs 1.1x for DBS (10.8% ROE) and 1.4x for OCBC (12.2% ROE).

- Our TP of SGD15.50 (P/BV 1.1x) is maintained.

P K BASU pk.basu@maybank-ke.com.sg (65) 6432 1821 ONG Seng Yeow ongsengyeow@maybank-ke.com (852) 2268 0644 Jeremy TAN jeremytan@kimeng.com.hk (852) 2268 0635

Today’s Content… Country Malaysia Oil & Gas Sector Singapore Ascendas REIT Singapore United Overseas Bank Philippines Alliance Global Group Inc Singapore Non-Oil domestic Exports June 2012

Top Buys… Company Ticker Spot Target Upside (%) Vinamilk VNM VN 86500 118000 36.4 Philex Mining Corp PX PM 22.75 30.61 34.5 LICHF LICHF IN 262.65 332.00 26.4 SembMarine SMM SP 4.960 6.200 25.0 Yes Bank YES IN 350.25 434.00 23.9 First Philippine Holdings

FPH PM 79.00 97.80 23.8

Venture Corp VMS SP 7.900 9.650 22.2 B. Armada BAB MK 4.01 4.88 21.7 AAPICO Hitech AH TB 15.20 18.00 18.4 SapuraKencana SAKP MK 2.30 2.68 16.5 P. Chem PCHEM MK 6.60 7.50 13.6 Asian Property Development

AP TB 7.50 8.50 13.3

Top Sells… Company Ticker Spot Target Downside (%) Jai Prakash Associates JPA IN 77.05 47.00 -39.0 GMA Network Inc GMAP PM 10 6.90 -32.4 Uni-President 220 HK 8.00 5.60 -30.0 Ayala Land ALI PM 20.80 15.00 -27.9

Maybank-KE Events Date Event Location 18 Jul Malaysia Head of Research & Chief

Economist, and Regional Strategist marketing

KL

18-20 Jul Singapore HoR & REIT analyst marketing SG 18 Jul Hock Seng Lee NDR KL 19-20 Jul Regional Head, Research & Economics

marketing HK

23-24 Jul Malaysia Head of Research & Chief Economist, and Regional Strategist marketing

SG

24-25 Jul Malaysia Oil & Gas, and Petrochem analysts marketing

SG

26 – 27 Jul Malaysia Oil & Gas, and Petrochem analysts marketing

HK

18 July 2012

Regional Daily

Company Notes VISIT NOTE Mcap USD2.9b ADTV USD6.2m PH: Alliance Global Group Inc (AGI) Kenneth Nerecina 6 Conglomerates | Travellers vs aspiring gaming operators | HOLD | Downside 2.4% - We estimate what the market is implying the value of AGI’s Travellers

International Hotel Group Inc by taking the current market caps of AGI, Megaworld Corp (MEG) and Global-Estates Resorts Inc (GERI) and considering our estimated values for Emperador Distillers Inc and Golden Arches Development Corp.

- The market’s implied value of Travellers is PHP135b, which translates to a PER of 20x on 2012 projected earnings and PBV of 7x on 2011 book value

- Would-be casino operators Bloomberry Resorts Corp (BLOOM), Belle Corp (BEL) and Leisure & Resorts World Corp (LR) have PBVs of 13.6x, 3.3x and 3.2x, respectively.

- Meanwhile, initial indication from AGI is that 2Q12 gaming revenues may not be strong. We maintain our HOLD rating on AGI given our NAV-based target price of PHP11.60/sh

Economics

SG: Non-Oil Domestic Exports, June 2012 Suhaimi Ilias 7 Lift From Pharmaceuticals - NODX growth picked up the pace in Jun 2012 to +6.8% YoY (May 2012:

+3.2% YoY; Consensus: +2.0% YoY) largely thanks to the increased shipments of pharmaceuticals. From the previous month, the seasonally adjusted NODX expanded by +6.7% (May 2012: -2.0% MoM). However, growth slowed in 2Q 2012 to +3.9% YoY from +6.1% YoY in 1Q 2012, reflecting deteriorating global economic – and hence external demand / trade conditions – amid worsening Eurozone crisis, US growth deceleration and China’s slowdown. For the first six months of this year, NODX was up by +5.0% YoY (1H 2011: +6.8% YoY).

- Short-term leading export indicators suggest sustained growth in NODX, supported by non-electronics exports amid volatile electronics shipments as the PMI new manufacturing new export orders edged up to 51.1 in Jun 2012 from 50.8 in May 2012, while the sub-index for new electronics export orders dipped to 49.2 from 51.6 over the same period.

- Therefore, we maintained our projection of continued low single-digit NODX growth of +3.8% in 2012 (2011: +2.2%). International Enterprise (IE) Singapore forecasts NODX growth to be between 3% and 5% in 2012.

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

Sector Update 18 July 2012

PP16832/01/2013 (031128)

Malaysia

Oil & Gas 2H 2012: An Action-Packed Time Ahead

Pulsating with opportunities. We anticipate that the sector will see an action-packed 18 months. O&G service providers are set to continue enjoying sustained growth as demand for equipment and services increases in light of rising activities in the sector. Against this backdrop, we foresee three themes featuring prominently: (i) a strong pipeline of offshore fabrication awards; (ii) contract flows for floating solutions and (iii) continuous awards for marginal/rejuvenation projects. The sector remains an Overweight with SapuraKencana, Bumi Armada and MMHE as top picks in the large cap, and Perisai, Yinson in the mid-small caps.

Thematic 1: Strong pipeline of offshore fabrication awards. Offshore fabrication works will dominate the headlines. We estimate contracts for offshore fabrication structures worth up to MYR7b will be announced over the next 18 months. Among the major fabrication jobs up for grabs are: (i) the MYR1-2b Malikai TLP, (ii) Petronas Carigali S/B’s (PCSB) three major central processing platform projects (i.e. Bokor, Semarang and Dulang) worth MYR3b-4b and the smaller Samarang and Besar projects (MYR0.5b), (iii) Shell’s four mid-sized fabrication jobs, (iv) a 40,000-tonne platform for Carigali Hess’ Cakerawala field and (v) Damar jacket and wellhead contracts.

Thematic 2: Contract flows for floating solutions. We assess that up to five FPSOs and one FSO are required for several shallow water in the domestic fields that have been identified for fast-track production to meet the country’s first gas production 2013-14 deadline. We gather that Hess will require two small-sized FPSOs for the Belud and Kamelia fields, while the Dahlia & Teratai, E6 and Balai fields will require one FPSO each. Elsewhere, Murphy is also evaluating a new FSO to replace the existing FSO Caspian Sea for its West Patricia field.

Thematic 3: Continuous awards for marginal and rejuvenation projects. A series of field developments will be rolled out this year. We have identified five projects revolving around the rejuvenation/ enhanced oil recovery (EOR), early production system (EPS) and marginal field projects on Risk Sharing Contract (RSC) terms. They are: (i) PCSB’s Angsi EOR project, (ii) Shell’s St Joseph EOR project, (iii) PCSB’s Tanjung Baram EPS. These projects require, among others, a sea-water reverse osmosis (SWRO) vessel (i.e. a chemical FPSO). The award momentum has started, with the 3rd RSC for the Kapal-Banang-Meranti marginal field awarded to Coastal Energy Co. in early July

Picking the winners. In sum, we expect news and contract flows to be strong. We see exciting prospects for the offshore fabricators. MMHE and SapuraKencana are best placed to capitalise on these tenders, while Bumi Armada, Perisai and Yinson are primary plays in the floating solutions space. In addition, Bumi Armada, Dialog and SapuraKencana are the likeliest candidates to clinch PETRONAS’ marginal field RSC and EOR projects. We expect investor interest to return to the sector which has underperformed the KLCI in 1H 2012.

Overweight (unchanged) Wong Chew Hann wchewh@maybank-ib.com (03) 2297 8688 Chong Ooi Ming ming.c@maybank-ib.com (603) 2297 8676

O&G: Summary of recommendations Stock Name Ticker Rec Shr Price

@ 17 Jul TP (MYR)

Alam Maritim AMRB MK Hold 0.54 0.60 Bumi Armada BAB MK Buy 4.02 4.88 Dialog DLG MK Buy 2.39 3.05 KNM KNMG MK Hold 0.69 0.88 MMHE MMHE MK Buy 5.49 5.70 Perisai PPT MK Buy 0.72 1.20 Perdana Pet PETR MK Hold 0.89 0.55 Petronas Gas PTG MK - 17.96 - SapuraKencana SAKP MK Buy 2.30 2.68 Tj Offshore TOFF MK Sell 0.76 0.70 Wah Seong WSC MK Buy 2.00 2.40 Yinson YNS MK Buy 2.23 2.54 Source: Maybank KE

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

Results Review 18 July 2012

Singapore

Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012

Ascendas REIT A-REIT delivers again

1QFY12 results inline. 1Q12 revenue at SGD142m, was 28% of ours and 26% of consensus estimate. 1Q12 DPU at 3.53 SG-cts (up 0.9% QoQ and 10.3% YoY) was 26% of our forecast and consensus estimate. Aggregate leverage inched down to 32.7% from 36.6% last quarter. After funding of committed capital expenditure, aggregate leverage is expected to be ~35%. All-in-financing costs for 1Q12 averaged 3.17% with an average term of debt of 4.4 years.

Stable portfolio continues to deliver. Occupancy rate for the portfolio and multi-tenanted buildings (MTB) improved to 94.6% and 90.1% respectively from 94.3% and 89.5% a quarter ago. 1Q12 weighted average lease to expiry was 4 years, with 10.5% NLA (127,543 sqm) renewed and signed for A-REIT’s MTB. Positive rental reversion on renewal range between 10%-21% throughout all segments of the portfolio. NPI margin improved from 70.8% last quarter to 71.2%.

Adjustments to our estimates. We raise our FY12-14F revenue and DPU by 1.1%-3.6% and 1.2%-4.8% respectively in view of better-than-expected rental reversions from renewals. The stock has risen 8.5% since our last report.

Maintain BUY. We continue to like A-REIT for its stable DPU yield, healthy lease expiry and debt maturity profile, underpinned by a diverse portfolio (business/science parks, hi-tech industrials, flatted factories, light industrials, logistics and distribution centres and warehouse retail). In addition, only 20.2% of A-REIT’s NLA is used for conventional manufacturing, which is a plus given that the per annum net demand for factory space has been modest compared to warehouses and business parks. Based on our forecasts, business/science parks currently constitute 40% of our FY12F GAV, followed by hi-tech (23%), logistics and distribution (19%), light industrial (15%) and warehouse retail facilities (3%). Potential acquisitions overseas could provide further upside for DPU growth. Importantly, A-REIT is also less vulnerable to asset erosion, with its defensive properties located primarily in Singapore. The stock currently trades at 6.4% FY12F yield and 1.1x P/BV. Reiterate BUY with a DDM-derived target price of SGD2.34 (prev. SGD2.23)

Ascendas REIT – Summary Earnings Table FYE Mar (S$ mn) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012F FY2013F FY2014F Revenue 447.6 503.3 516.2 535.1 559.6 Net property income 339.4 368.3 374.8 388.0 406.1 Distributable income 248.0 281.7 290.6 296.9 313.1 DPU (cents) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.2 15.0 DPU growth (%) 1.0 2.5 2.7 2.0 5.3 DPU yield (%) 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.9 P/BV(x) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 Gearing (Debt to deposited assets) (%)

35.1 37.6 34.2 33.9 33.7

ROE (%) 17.6 12.6 8.6 8.7 8.9 ROA (%) 10.7 7.5 5.1 5.1 5.3 Source: Company, Maybank KE estimates

BUY (unchanged) Share price: SGD2.18 Target price: SGD2.34 (prev. SGD2.23) ONG Kian Lin ongkianlin@maybank-ke.com.sg (65) 6432 1470 Stock Information Description: Ascendas REIT is a property trust constituted by a trust deed. It owns and invests in a diverse income-producing portfolio comprising business parks (including Science Park), light industrial, hi-tech industrial and logistics properties in Singapore. Ticker: AREIT SP Shares Issued (m): 2,237.55 Market Cap (USD m): 3,865.2 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USD m): 8.6 ST Index: 3,014.80 Free float (%): 77 Major Shareholders: % Ascendas Funds Mgmt Ltd 18.1 Key Indicators ROE – annualised (%) 7.6 Debt-to-deposited assets (%): 32.7 NAV/shr (SGD): 1.87 Interest cover (x): 4.9

Historical Chart

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

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2.30

Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12

AREIT SP Equity

Performance: 52-week High/Low SGD2.19 /SGD1.815 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD Absolute (%) 8.5 8.5 8.5 0.9 19.1 Relative (%) 1.1 7.4 1.3 3.3 4.6

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

Company Update 18 July 2012

Singapore

Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012

United Overseas Bank A softer 2Q expected

Maintain SELL. 2Q12 results, due Aug 7, are likely to be softer QoQ, in our view. Some features that we expect include a) stable loan expansion, b) a normalization of trading income and c) QoQ NIM contraction. The stock has outperformed its peers YTD (+22% vs 20% for DBS, 12% for OCBC). However, valuations are no longer cheap, in our view, with the stock trading at a 2012 P/BV of 1.4x for an ROE of 11.5% vs 1.1x for DBS (10.8% ROE) and 1.4x for OCBC (12.2% ROE). Our TP of SGD15.50 (P/BV 1.1x) is maintained.

Lower QoQ. We expect 2Q12 net profit to come in lower QoQ, largely on account of lower trading gains, coming off an exceptional 1Q. We estimate a 1H net profit of SGD1.32b, which implies a net profit of about SGD636m (+6% YoY, -8% QoQ) vs SGD688m in 1Q12. Our 2012 net profit forecast of SGD2.59b is 4% ahead of consensus’ SGD2.49b.

Loan growth stable, NIMs likely contracted. Loan growth expanded 2.6% QoQ in 1Q12 and we expect the same (+2-3%) in 2Q as well. Growth for the year is likely to trend towards our forecast of 11.9%, which would be marginally slower than management’s mid-teens expectation earlier this year. UOB saw its NIM improve by 3 bps QoQ in 1Q12. With stiff competition, we expect NIMs to have contracted QoQ, largely on account of lower Malaysian NIMs. We do nevertheless expect a slight 3-5 bps improvement for the full year from a low base.

Trading gains to normalize. Tightening bond spreads led to large trading gains in 1Q12, which are unlikely to be of similar quantum in 2Q. UOB saw its trading income jump 22% YoY to SGD232m in 2Q12 and we expect this to normalize in 2Q12.

Liquidity is paramount and to this end, loan/deposit ratios (LDR) have been capped at less than 100% across the region and even USD LDR (88%). With its AA rating, UOB has seen strong demand for its fixed income issuances at competitive pricing as well, thus ensuring a stable flow of liquidity for the group.

UOB – Summary Earnings Table FYE Dec (SGD m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F Operating Income 5,801 5,698 6,403 6,862 7,316 Pre-provision Profit 3,543 3,248 3,684 4,032 4,369 Profit before Tax 3,198 2,808 3,174 3,464 3,730 Recurring Net Profit 2,427 2,327 2,593 2,833 3,087 Recurring Basic EPS (cents) 151.9 142.8 154.8 169.7 185.5 EPS growth (%) 28.0 (6.0) 8.4 9.7 9.3 Gross DPS (cents) 70.0 60.0 70.0 70.0 80.0 PER (x) 13.0 13.8 12.8 11.7 10.7 Div Yield (%) 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 4.0 P/BV (x) 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 Book Value (SGD) 12.53 13.23 14.35 15.57 16.89 ROAE (%) 14.3 11.1 11.5 11.6 11.7 ROAA (%) 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Consensus Net Profit (SGD m) n.a. n.a. 2,490.6 2,684.6 2,995.4 Earnings Revision n.a. n.a. 6.3% 5.1% 1.8% Source: Maybank KE

Sell (unchanged) Share price: SGD19.78 Target price: SGD15.50 (unchanged) Desmond Ch’ng desmond.chng@maybank-ke.com.sg (603) 2297 8680 Stock Information Description: Banking Ticker: UOB SP Shares Issued (m): 1,573.5 Market Cap (MYR m): 31,124.0 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USD m): 12.41 FSSTI: 1,639.15 Free float (%): 92.3 Major Shareholders: % WEE INVESTMENTS PTE 7.6 WAH HIN & CO PTE LTD 5.2

Historical Chart

Performance: 52-week High/Low S$21.00/S$14.42 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD Absolute (%) 9.9 6.6 11.3 0.9 29.5 Relative (%) 2.6 6.5 3.2 3.0 15.6

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

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UOB SP Equity

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

Philippines Company update 18 July 2012

Alliance Global Group Travellers vs aspiring gaming operators

Only licensee with ongoing casino operation. With the recent signing of a memorandum of agreement between Belle Corp (BEL – Not rated) and Macau-based Melco Crown Entertainment to develop Belle Grande, there has been renewed interest in listed gaming issues. There are three other gaming licensees but Travellers International is currently the only licensee with an ongoing casino operation at Resorts World Manila. Implied market cap of Travellers. Given the latest market caps of Megaworld Corp (MEG – HOLD) and Global-Estates Resorts Inc (GERI – Not rated), we worked back to derive the implied market value of Travellers. The tricky part is Emperador Distillers Inc (EDI) since it is a major driver of AGI and it isn’t publicly traded. Using our estimated values for EDI and quick-service restaurant unit Golden Arches Development Corp (GADC), we get PHP135b for Travellers – this translates to a PER of 20x on our projected earnings for this year and a PBV of 7x on 2011 book value. Market caps of would-be casino op erators. While still devoid of casino operations, the market is currently placing a value of almost PHP108b on BLOOM. It is also valuing BEL at PHP53.9b and Leisure & Resorts World Corp (LR – not rated) at PHP8.9b. At this point, the most comparable to Travellers is BLOOM. And it’s rather disconcerting seeing the premium that BLOOM enjoys over Travellers, in terms of both PBV and PER multiples. What’s up with BEL, LR, RLC and Tiger Resorts? While BEL and LR are supposedly still together in the casino venture, it’s not clear to us yet how LR will share in the income of Belle Grande. Meanwhile, Robinsons Land Corp (RLC – HOLD) has confirmed it is currently in discussions with Tiger Resorts for evaluation and exploration of investment opportunities. AGI remains a HOLD. Meanwhile, recall that we downgraded our 2012 profit projection for Travellers last May since it made only PHP854m net profit in 1Q12 on gaming revenue that seemed low to us at PHP6.1b. Initial indication from AGI is that 2Q12 may not be strong. Meanwhile, we maintain our HOLD rating on AGI given our NAV-based target price of PHP11.60/sh (about PHP119b). Alliance Global Group Inc – Summary Earnings Table FYE 31 Dec (PHPm) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013FRevenues 32,706 37,817 53,650 63,377 69,039 EBITDA 5,591 8,638 10,761 14,957 15,590 Recurring Net Profit to Common 4,796 6,909 8,476 10,956 12,275 Recurring Basic EPS (PHP) 0.49 0.71 0.86 1.07 1.20 EPS growth (%) 26.5 44.4 21.2 23.8 12.0 DPS (PHP) 0.00 0.08 0.39 0.00 0.00 PER 24.1 16.7 13.8 11.1 9.9 Div Yield (%) 0.0 0.7 3.3 0.0 0.0 P/BV(x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 Net Gearing (%) (14.5) (7.8) (4.1) (5.0) (17.7) ROE (%) 5.8 7.5 6.7 8.0 8.2 ROA (%) 3.7 4.2 3.9 4.4 4.9 Consensus Net Profit (PHPm) n.a. n.a. n.a. 10,720 12,805

Source: Maybank ATR Kim Eng estimates

Hold (unchanged) Share price: PHP11.88 Target price: PHP11.60 Kenneth Nerecina Kenneth_Nerecina@maybank-atrke.com (632) 849 8839

Stock Information Description: AGI is engaged in the food and beverage, real estate, quick-service restaurants and gaming business Ticker: AGI PM / AGI.PS Shares Issued (m): 10,270 Market Cap (PHPm): 122,008 Market Cap (USD m): 2,924 3-mth Avg Daily Value (USDm): 6.2 PSEi: 5,285.12 Free float (%): 43.0 Major Shareholders: % Andersons Group Inc 38.41 Key Indicators

ROE (%) 8.0 Net debt (PHPm) (6,811) NTA/share (PHP) 13.34 Interest cover (x) 5.9

Historical Chart

AGI PM

56789

101112131415

Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Source: Bloomberg Performance: 52-week High/Low PHP13.70/PHP8.42 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD Absolute (%) 4.21 (3.41) 7.03 2.59 15.56 Relative (%) (2.98) (5.89) (6.81) (15.94) (4.63)

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

Economics 18 July 2012

PP16832/01/2013 (031128)

Singapore

Lift from pharmaceuticals NODX growth picked up the pace in Jun 2012 to +6.8% YoY (May 2012: +3.2% YoY; Consensus: +2.0% YoY) largely thanks to the increased shipments of pharmaceuticals. From the previous month, the seasonally adjusted NODX expanded by +6.7% (May 2012: -2.0% MoM). However, growth slowed in 2Q 2012 to +3.9% YoY from +6.1% YoY in 1Q 2012, reflecting deteriorating global economic – and hence external demand / trade conditions – amid worsening Eurozone crisis, US growth deceleration and China’s slowdown. For the first six months of this year, NODX was up by +5.0% YoY (1H 2011: +6.8% YoY).

Chemicals exports growth hits double digits on “drugs”. Growth within the segment came in at +10.0% YoY in Jun 2012 (May 2012: +3.7% YoY) led by its biggest component, Pharmaceuticals which jumped to +24.5% YoY (May 2012: +0.2% YoY). Petrochemicals on the other hand fell -7.8% YoY (May 2012: +6.7% YoY) amid weaker global economic growth. In 1H 2012, Pharmaceutical exports were up by +19.9% YoY (1H 2011: +21.4% YoY) while shipments of Petrochemicals were down by -5.9% YoY (1H 2011: +9.2% YoY).

Electronics exports continued to register growth albeit at a slower pace. Shipments of Electronic products gained by +1.6% YoY in Jun 2012 compared to +3.9% YoY recorded a month earlier. Within the electronics segment, there was a surge in growth for PC’s (Jun 2012: +51.3% YoY; May 2012: +15.7% YoY), Other Computer Peripherals (Jun 2012: +40.5% YoY; May 2012: +6.5% YoY) and Resistors (Jun 2012: +36.7% YoY; May 2012: +9.8% YoY) which countered the lower shipments of Printers (Jun 2012: -53.6% YoY; May 2012: -66.6% YoY) and Office Machines (Jun 2012: -40.1% YoY; May 2012: -38.4% YoY).

Breakdown by markets yielded a m ixed bag. Export destinations that recorded faster growth in June 2012 included HK, Indonesia, EU, India and Taiwan. Shipments to Hong Kong surged by +41.4% YoY (May 2012: +22.6% YoY) on higher exports of IC’s (+26.0% YoY), specialized machinery (+154% YoY) and PC’s (+345% YoY). Despite the problems in the Eurozone, exports to the EU which had been weak over the preceding three months picked up to +17.0% YoY (May 2012: +1.5% YoY), propelled by increased shipments of Pharmaceuticals (+45% YoY), measuring instruments (+80% YoY) and PC’s (+133% YoY). NODX to Indonesia sustained its double-digit growth (Jun 2012: +19.7% YoY; May 2012: +15.8% YoY), reflecting strong domestic demand in terms of consumer and business spending as per the higher demand for ships, boats & motorcycles (+640% YoY) and specialized machinery (+72% YoY). Exports to India and Taiwan accelerated to +6.7% YoY and +12.5% YoY last month respectively from +0.7% YoY and +5.5% YoY in May 2012.

However, NODX to several key markets were down, namely China (Jun 2012: -3.2% YoY; May 2012: -0.8% YoY) which posted the sixth month of contractions over the past eight months, and US (Jun 2012: -2.0% YoY; May 2012: -11.4% YoY) which recorded the third straight month of decline.

Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) Suhaimi Ilias suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com (603) 2297 8682 Ramesh Lankanathan ramesh@maybank-ib.com (603) 2297 8685 William Poh william.poh@maybank-ib.com (603) 2297 8683

18 July 2012 Page 2 of 8

Singapore NODX, June ‘12

Meanwhile, exports to South Korea has decelerated sharply to just 5.1% YoY from 15.1% YoY in May 2012 and the average of 39% YoY in Jan-Apr 2012 amid volatile trends in exports to Japan (Jun 2012: +7.8% YoY; May 2012: -5.7% YoY) and Malaysia (Jun 2012: 0% YoY; May 2012: +4.8% YoY).

Maintain our 2012 NODX growth forecast of +3.8%. The aforementioned mixed – rather than clear-cut positive or negative – trends in NODX to the key trading partners suggest that growth this year is likely to moderate rather than contract amid a more challenging global economic environment. Meanwhile, short-term leading export indicators suggest sustained growth in NODX, supported by non-electronics exports amid volatile electronics shipments as the PMI new manufacturing new export orders edged up to 51.1 in Jun 2012 from 50.8 in May 2012, while the sub-index for new electronics export orders dipped to 49.2 from 51.6 over the same period. Therefore, we maintained our projection of continued low single-digit NODX growth of +3.8% in 2012 (2011: +2.2%). International Enterprise (IE) Singapore forecasts NODX growth to be between 3% and 5% in 2012.

Singapore: Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX, % YoY) Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 June-12

NODX (3.4) 30.3 (4.4) 1.7 3.2 6.8 By Key Products Electronics (10.9) 23.3 2.8 1.0 3.9 1.6 Integrated Circuits (ICs) 5.9 20.2 9.3 9.1 7.2 6.8 PC parts (17.3) 37.1 (1.4) 1.9 (6.8) (11.7) IC parts (32.7) (17.4) (39.6) (44.8) (45.9) (8.3) Disk Drives (9.0) 38.7 17.2 6.4 4.6 7.5 Diodes, Transistors (28.0) (9.3) (31.7) (31.0) 10.5 (33.6) Others (22.9) 39.5 16.7 12.7 29.7 20.5 Non-Electronics 1.2 33.7 (7.9) 2.0 2.8 9.4 Chemicals 2.1 20.9 11.5 (2.6) 3.7 10.0 Pharmaceuticals 20.2 44.5 43.0 (7.1) 0.2 24.0 Petrochemicals (23.3) (5.8) (13.1) 14.4 6.7 (7.8) By Key Markets EU (14.5) 11.7 4.5 (12.2) 1.5 17.0 US (10.0) 48.1 4.0 (18.6) (11.4) (2.0) China (5.5) 19.9 (1.4) 3.8 (0.8) (3.2) Malaysia (17.9) 13.1 5.1 1.8 4.8 0.0 Hong Kong (3.0) 56.5 15.5 27.8 22.6 41.4 Indonesia (12.4) 26.2 2.4 19.9 15.8 19.9 Japan 2.6 19.7 6.2 17.2 (5.7) 7.8 Thailand 25.9 73.3 0.3 1.0 4.5 (4.7) Taiwan (8.2) 13.3 4.0 7.6 5.5 12.5 South Korea 32.5 46.6 33.7 42.4 15.1 5.1 India 7.1 32.1 (4.2) 0.5 0.7 6.7 Emerging Markets 1.7 28.8 (42.6) (5.3) 16.4 (5.6) Sources: International Enterprise Singapore, Bloomberg

18 July 2012 Page 3 of 8

Singapore NODX, June ‘12

Singapore: Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) Singapore NODX: Electronics & Non-Electronics (% YoY)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

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3MMA % YoY

(50)(40)(30)(20)(10)

0 10 20 30 40 50

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NODX: Electronics NODX: Non-Electronics Source: CEIC, Maybank KE Source: CEIC

Electronic Exports: Contribution to growth by Categories (ppts)

Singapore PMI for New Exports Orders

(5.0)(4.0)(3.0)(2.0)(1.0)0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

ICs

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Purchasing Manager Index: Mfg: New Export OrdersPurchasing Manager Index: Mfg: Electronics: New Export Orders

Source: CEIC, Maybank KE Source: CEIC

18 July 2012 Page 4 of 8

Singapore NODX, June ‘12

Global: Export Growth (% YoY, in USD)

% YoY Feb-12 Mar -12 Apr -12 May -12 June -12 2011 YTD 2012 YTD 2011

Global Trade 12.6 3.3 0.3 1.2 - 19.3 3.8 24.6

US 12.3 6.4 3.0 5.9 - 16.5 6.9 19.7

EU 7.6 (1.8) (5.5) (9.1) - 19.7 (1.1) 28.5

Germany 5.0 (5.5) (7.8) (13.5) - 18.1 (4.0) 26.0

Japan (1.7) 6.1 9.8 14.1 - 6.5 5.0 8.3

UK (1.8) 5.8 (5.0) (4.3) - 17.1 (0.5) 24.9

Canada 9.8 3.1 2.2 (2.2) - 18.7 4.2 19.1

Mexico 10.5 16.3 3.4 11.6 6.7 19.4 9.2 23.8

Australia 12.9 (2.9) (2.9) (8.0) - 28.7 1.4 36.5

China 18.3 8.8 4.9 15.3 11.2 20.3 9.2 24.0

Russia 16.6 6.8 (2.2) 1.8 - 30.2 9.0 29.2

India 4.2 (5.7) 3.2 (4.2) - 34.1 1.0 46.9

Brazil 7.7 8.4 (3.0) 0.0 (18.3) 26.8 (0.9) 32.6

S. Korea 20.4 (1.5) (5.0) (0.8) 1.1 19.0 0.6 23.6

Taiwan 10.2 (3.3) (6.5) (6.4) (3.2) 12.3 (4.8) 16.9

Singapore 27.2 (2.1) 0.3 (1.0) (3.5) 16.4 3.5 23.3

Singapore (NODX) 32.8 (4.1) 0.5 (1.1) 3.5 10.6 4.2 19.3

Hong Kong 14.5 (6.6) 5.8 5.4 - 10.0 1.6 16.8

Malaysia 16.5 (1.3) (2.2) 1.2 - 14.0 2.5 16.1

Thailand 1.2 (6.7) (3.5) 6.7 - 16.4 (1.7) (24.7)

Indonesia 8.9 5.4 (2.3) (8.5) - 29.0 1.5 33.3

Vietnam 67.5 33.7 15.5 21.1 35.3 34.4 25.5 31.8

Philippines 12.8 (0.8) 7.6 19.7 - (6.2) 8.4 8.0 Source: Bloomberg, CEIC

18 July 2012

Regional Daily

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New York Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc 777 Third Avenue, 21st Floor New York, NY 10017, U.S.A. Tel: (212) 688 8886 Fax: (212) 688 3500

Stockbroking Business: Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888 Fax: (603) 2282 5136

Hong Kong Kim Eng Securities (HK) Ltd Level 30, Three Pacific Place, 1 Queen’s Road East, Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2268 0800 Fax: (852) 2877 0104

Indonesia PT Kim Eng Securities Plaza Bapindo Citibank Tower 17th Floor Jl Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54-55 Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

Tel: (62) 21 2557 1188 Fax: (62) 21 2557 1189

India Kim Eng Securities India Pvt Ltd 2nd Floor, The International 16, Maharishi Karve Road, Churchgate Station, Mumbai City - 400 020, India Tel: (91).22.6623.2600 Fax: (91).22.6623.2604

Philippines Maybank ATR Kim Eng Securities Inc. 17/F, Tower One & Exchange Plaza Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue Makati City, Philippines 1200 Tel: (63) 2 849 8888 Fax: (63) 2 848 5738

Thailand Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited 999/9 The Offices at Central World, 20th - 21st Floor, Rama 1 Road Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330, Thailand Tel: (66) 2 658 6817 (sales) Tel: (66) 2 658 6801 (research)

Vietnam In association with Kim Eng Vietnam Securities Company 1st Floor, 255 Tran Hung Dao St. District 1 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Tel : (84) 838 38 66 36 Fax : (84) 838 38 66 39

Saudi Arabia In association with Anfaal Capital Villa 47, Tujjar Jeddah Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Street P.O. Box 126575 Jeddah 21352 Tel: (966) 2 6068686 Fax: (966) 26068787

South Asia Sales Trading Connie TAN connie@maybank-ke.com.sg Tel: (65) 6333 5775 US Toll Free: 1 866 406 7447

North Asia Sales Trading Eddie LAU eddielau@kimeng.com.hk Tel: (852) 2268 0800 US Toll Free: 1 866 598 2267

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