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Regional Climate Model Results for Climate Impacts Applications
Eric Salathé
Science & Technology Program, UW BothellClimate Impacts Group, UW Seattle
Alan Hamlet (UW), Neil Banas (UW), Brian Lamb (WSU)
Regional climate change scenarios
• “Downscale” global scenarios to add local details
• There is a hierarchy of methods depending on the details needed
• More sophisticated methods can expand the class of impacts problems we can consider
• Should downscaling change the large-scale trends from the global model?
Climate Impacts Group 2009, WA Assessment, Ch. 1http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml
Figure shows change compared with 1970 -1999 average
Composite IPCC AR 4 Simulations for the Pacific Northwest
A1B Medium HighB1 Low Jan Jul
Delta Method:Simplest Climate Change Scenarios
Application of Delta Method:
Change in Long-Term Mean April 1 Snowpack
Snohomish River Near Monroe, WA
Regional Climate Model12-km WRF
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Chehalis RiverAnnual one-day peak flow
30 years current (blue) and future (red)
1980s 2050s
Peak Flow date
Pea
k F
low
(cf
s)
1 2 20 50 1000
40,000
80,000
Chehalis River
Historical (1980s)_WRF Climate Change (2050s)_WRF
Return Years
Flo
ws
(cfs
)
Multi-scale and Ensemble Modeling of Global Change and Air Quality
Summer TemperatureDifferences from 1990s to 2050s
Change in T (°C)
PCM-MM5 A2 ECHAM5-WRF3 A1BECHAM5-WRF2 A1B
CCSM3-WRF2 A1B CCSM3-WRF2 A2
Summer Mixed-layer DepthDifferences from 1990s to 2050s
Change in PBL (m)
A1B_Base – Current Decade Average Daily 8-hr Maximum O3
June through August
Several ppb increase in O3 throughout most of the countrySlight decrease in O3 along west and east coastal zones
Linking Climate, Ocean, BiologyNOAA ECOHAB
Steph Moore, NOAA NWFSCEric Salathé, UW BothellCheryl Greengrove, UW TacomaNeil Banas, UW APLNate Mantua, UW Fish
Alexandrium Catenella
Delta Method:Future HAB projections
The “Window of Opportunity” for Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB-WOO)
Projected to become more frequent and last longer
Moore, Mantua and Salathe, 2011
Projected changes in summertime along-shore winds
Stronger northerly winds -> more upwelling
Conclusions
• Different approaches are needed for different applications
• What information can we get from climate models?
• What is left out that we need to know• How can we add that information?