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Referendum Opinion Poll, Wales
Citation preview
2011 WELSH REFERENDUM OPINION POLL
MARCH 2011
Presented by: John Poole, Research Director, rmg:Clarity, Trefor House, Ocean Park, Cardiff, CF24 5RE
Tel: 02920 435800
E-mail: [email protected]
Web: www.rmg-uk.co.uk
REFERENDUM POLL
RMG Clarity conducted an opinion poll on behalf of Media Wales / The Western Mail regarding the referendum on granting more powers to the Welsh
Assembly on 3rd March 2011. The survey consisted of 1000 structured telephone interviews, conducted with Welsh voters, between 25th and 28th
February 2011.
Interviews were conducted at RMG Clarity’s in-house CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) Unit. Respondents were contacted during
the day, in the evening and at the weekend.
The universe represented is the Welsh electorate (pop 2,280,240). Prior to interviewing the sample frame was designed to be proportional according
to parliamentary constituency population. The number of interviews achieved in each constituency are shown in the tables, below.
Only those who said that they intended to vote in the upcoming referendum were asked which way they would vote. Those who did not intend to vote
were excluded from the survey.
This opinion poll sought to gather Welsh voters’ opinions on the forthcoming referendum and wider political concerns. To this end, the survey asked:
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly?
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No?
Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes?
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales, should the
number of Welsh MPs be cut?
For further information on this survey, please contact RMG Clarity Research Director, John Poole (details on frontpage).
TABULATIONS BY CONSTITUENCY
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly?
Constituency
Base: All
respondents Newport East Cardiff West Delyn
Cardiff South
and Penarth Cynon Valley Wrexham
Base: All respondents 1000 24 28 21 32 22 23
100.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%
Yes 1000 24 28 21 32 22 23
100.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly?
Constituency
Alyn and
Deeside Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy Blaenau Gwent
Base: All respondents 27 27 18 24 25 20 23
2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3%
Yes 27 27 18 24 25 20 23
2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3%
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly?
Constituency
Ogmore
Swansea
East
Carmarthen
West and South
Pembrokeshire
Dwyfor
Meirionnydd
Brecon and
Radnorshire Llanelli Cardiff Central
Base: All respondents 25 26 25 21 25 25 27
2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7%
Yes 25 26 25 21 25 25 27
2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7%
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly?
Constituency
Pontypridd Ynys Môn Rhondda
Merthyr Tydfil
and Rhymney Newport West Cardiff North Gower
Base: All respondents 26 22 23 23 27 29 27
2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7%
Yes 26 22 23 23 27 29 27
2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7%
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly?
Constituency
Montgomeryshir
e Clwyd West
Carmarthen East
and Dinefwr Ceredigion
Vale of
Glamorgan Bridgend
Base: All respondents 22 26 23 26 31 26
2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6%
Yes 22 26 23 26 31 26
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly?
Constituency
Montgomeryshir
e Clwyd West
Carmarthen East
and Dinefwr Ceredigion
Vale of
Glamorgan Bridgend
Base: All respondents 22 26 23 26 31 26
2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6%
Yes 22 26 23 26 31 26
2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6%
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National
Assembly?
Constituency
Preseli
Pembrokeshire Monmouth Caerphilly Neath Aberavon Islwyn Torfaen
Base: All respondents 25 30 27 25 23 24 27
2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7%
Yes 25 30 27 25 23 24 27
2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No?
Constituency
Base: All
respondents Newport East Cardiff West Delyn
Cardiff South
and Penarth Cynon Valley Wrexham
Base: All respondents 1000 24 28 21 32 22 23
100.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%
Yes 494 10 14 12 14 13 12
49.4% 1.0% 1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2%
No 223 8 8 4 10 2 5
22.3% .8% .8% .4% 1.0% .2% .5%
Don't know - not yet decided 283 6 6 5 8 7 6
28.3% .6% .6% .5% .8% .7% .6%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No?
Constituency
Alyn and
Deeside Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy
Base: All respondents 27 27 18 24 25 20
2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0%
Yes 12 14 14 14 13 11
1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1%
No 9 9 2 6 6 4
.9% .9% .2% .6% .6% .4%
Don't know - not yet decided 6 4 2 4 6 5
.6% .4% .2% .4% .6% .5%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No?
Constituency
Blaenau Gwent Ogmore
Swansea
East
Carmarthen
West and South
Pembrokeshire
Dwyfor
Meirionnydd
Brecon and
Radnorshire
Base: All respondents 23 25 26 25 21 25
2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.5%
Yes 11 16 13 11 14 7
1.1% 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 1.4% .7%
No 4 1 6 3 1 7
.4% .1% .6% .3% .1% .7%
Don't know - not yet decided 8 8 7 11 6 11
.8% .8% .7% 1.1% .6% 1.1%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No?
Constituency
Llanelli Cardiff Central Pontypridd Ynys Môn Rhondda
Merthyr Tydfil
and Rhymney Newport West
Base: All respondents 25 27 26 22 23 23 27
2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7%
Yes 15 12 11 10 9 10 17
1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% .9% 1.0% 1.7%
No 3 7 10 5 3 3 4
.3% .7% 1.0% .5% .3% .3% .4%
Don't know - not yet decided 7 8 5 7 11 10 6
.7% .8% .5% .7% 1.1% 1.0% .6%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No?
Constituency
Cardiff North Gower
Montgomeryshir
e Clwyd West
Carmarthen East
and Dinefwr Ceredigion
Base: All respondents 29 27 22 26 23 26
2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6%
Yes 16 15 7 11 14 10
1.6% 1.5% .7% 1.1% 1.4% 1.0%
No 5 5 8 4 6 9
.5% .5% .8% .4% .6% .9%
Don't know - not yet decided 8 7 7 11 3 7
.8% .7% .7% 1.1% .3% .7%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No?
Constituency
Vale of
Glamorgan Bridgend
Preseli
Pembrokeshire Monmouth Caerphilly Neath Aberavon
Base: All respondents 31 26 25 30 27 25 23
3.1% 2.6% 2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3%
Yes 15 14 16 11 10 11 15
1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.5%
No 7 7 3 7 10 4 4
.7% .7% .3% .7% 1.0% .4% .4%
Don't know - not yet decided 9 5 6 12 7 10 4
.9% .5% .6% 1.2% .7% 1.0% .4%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No?
Constituency
Islwyn Torfaen
Base: All respondents 24 27
2.4% 2.7%
Yes 10 10
1.0% 1.0%
No 7 7
.7% .7%
Don't know - not yet decided 7 10
.7% 1.0%
Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
Constituency
Base: All
respondents Newport East Cardiff West Delyn
Cardiff South
and Penarth Cynon Valley Wrexham
Base: All respondents 1000 24 28 21 32 22 23
100.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%
Yes 567 12 16 13 16 16 16
56.7% 1.2% 1.6% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
No 260 9 9 5 11 3 5
26.0% .9% .9% .5% 1.1% .3% .5%
Don't know/ unsure 173 3 3 3 5 3 2
17.3% .3% .3% .3% .5% .3% .2%
Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
Constituency
Alyn and
Deeside Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy Blaenau Gwent
Base: All respondents 27 27 18 24 25 20 23
2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3%
Yes 11 16 12 16 13 12 10
1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0%
No 11 10 4 5 5 4 9
1.1% 1.0% .4% .5% .5% .4% .9%
Don't know/ unsure 5 1 2 3 7 4 4
.5% .1% .2% .3% .7% .4% .4%
Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
Constituency
Ogmore
Swansea
East
Carmarthen
West and South
Pembrokeshire
Dwyfor
Meirionnydd
Brecon and
Radnorshire Llanelli Cardiff Central
Base: All respondents 25 26 25 21 25 25 27
2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7%
Yes 18 13 13 16 14 15 17
1.8% 1.3% 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7%
No 2 4 4 3 9 4 5
.2% .4% .4% .3% .9% .4% .5%
Don't know/ unsure 5 9 8 2 2 6 5
.5% .9% .8% .2% .2% .6% .5%
Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
Constituency
Pontypridd Ynys Môn Rhondda
Merthyr Tydfil
and Rhymney Newport West Cardiff North Gower
Base: All respondents 26 22 23 23 27 29 27
2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7%
Yes 11 11 15 16 14 13 17
1.1% 1.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.7%
No 10 7 5 4 4 9 8
1.0% .7% .5% .4% .4% .9% .8%
Don't know/ unsure 5 4 3 3 9 7 2
.5% .4% .3% .3% .9% .7% .2%
Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
Constituency
Montgomeryshir
e Clwyd West
Carmarthen East
and Dinefwr Ceredigion
Vale of
Glamorgan Bridgend
Base: All respondents 22 26 23 26 31 26
2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6%
Yes 11 16 16 12 14 17
1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7%
No 6 5 6 10 11 7
.6% .5% .6% 1.0% 1.1% .7%
Don't know/ unsure 5 5 1 4 6 2
.5% .5% .1% .4% .6% .2%
Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
Constituency
Preseli
Pembrokeshire Monmouth Caerphilly Neath Aberavon Islwyn Torfaen
Base: All respondents 25 30 27 25 23 24 27
2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7%
Yes 17 10 14 15 18 13 12
1.7% 1.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.2%
No 4 6 10 5 4 9 9
.4% .6% 1.0% .5% .4% .9% .9%
Don't know/ unsure 4 14 3 5 1 2 6
.4% 1.4% .3% .5% .1% .2% .6%
Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes?
Constituency
Base: All
respondents Newport East Cardiff West Delyn
Cardiff South
and Penarth Cynon Valley Wrexham
Base: All respondents 1000 24 28 21 32 22 23
100.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%
Yes 541 9 15 14 16 16 13
54.1% .9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3%
No 340 13 9 7 14 3 9
34.0% 1.3% .9% .7% 1.4% .3% .9%
Don't know/ unsure 119 2 4 0 2 3 1
11.9% .2% .4% .0% .2% .3% .1%
Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes?
Constituency
Alyn and
Deeside Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy Blaenau Gwent
Base: All respondents 27 27 18 24 25 20 23
2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3%
Yes 8 13 13 17 11 13 14
.8% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4%
No 18 11 4 6 11 5 8
1.8% 1.1% .4% .6% 1.1% .5% .8%
Don't know/ unsure 1 3 1 1 3 2 1
.1% .3% .1% .1% .3% .2% .1%
Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes?
Constituency
Ogmore
Swansea
East
Carmarthen
West and South
Pembrokeshire
Dwyfor
Meirionnydd
Brecon and
Radnorshire Llanelli Cardiff Central
Base: All respondents 25 26 25 21 25 25 27
2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7%
Yes 16 15 12 13 11 16 15
1.6% 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.6% 1.5%
No 5 8 8 4 13 5 9
.5% .8% .8% .4% 1.3% .5% .9%
Don't know/ unsure 4 3 5 4 1 4 3
.4% .3% .5% .4% .1% .4% .3%
Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes?
Constituency
Pontypridd Ynys Môn Rhondda
Merthyr Tydfil
and Rhymney Newport West Cardiff North Gower
Base: All respondents 26 22 23 23 27 29 27
2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7%
Yes 12 9 15 15 15 15 17
1.2% .9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7%
No 10 10 5 5 7 9 8
1.0% 1.0% .5% .5% .7% .9% .8%
Don't know/ unsure 4 3 3 3 5 5 2
.4% .3% .3% .3% .5% .5% .2%
Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes?
Constituency
Montgomeryshir
e Clwyd West
Carmarthen East
and Dinefwr Ceredigion
Vale of
Glamorgan Bridgend
Base: All respondents 22 26 23 26 31 26
2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6%
Yes 10 11 15 14 16 10
1.0% 1.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.0%
No 9 7 7 9 11 13
.9% .7% .7% .9% 1.1% 1.3%
Don't know/ unsure 3 8 1 3 4 3
.3% .8% .1% .3% .4% .3%
Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes?
Constituency
Preseli
Pembrokeshire Monmouth Caerphilly Neath Aberavon Islwyn Torfaen
Base: All respondents 25 30 27 25 23 24 27
2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7%
Yes 18 8 14 16 13 14 14
1.8% .8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%
No 3 11 12 6 7 9 12
.3% 1.1% 1.2% .6% .7% .9% 1.2%
Don't know/ unsure 4 11 1 3 3 1 1
.4% 1.1% .1% .3% .3% .1% .1%
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales,
should the number of Welsh MPs be cut?
Constituency
Base: All
respondents Newport East Cardiff West Delyn
Cardiff South
and Penarth Cynon Valley Wrexham
Base: All respondents 1000 24 28 21 32 22 23
100.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%
Yes 407 8 10 10 12 8 10
40.7% .8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% .8% 1.0%
No 429 11 14 11 11 10 11
42.9% 1.1% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1%
Don't know/ unsure 164 5 4 0 9 4 2
16.4% .5% .4% .0% .9% .4% .2%
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales,
should the number of Welsh MPs be cut?
Constituency
Alyn and
Deeside Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy Blaenau Gwent
Base: All respondents 27 27 18 24 25 20 23
2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3%
Yes 9 8 4 4 9 11 7
.9% .8% .4% .4% .9% 1.1% .7%
No 14 16 12 8 13 7 13
1.4% 1.6% 1.2% .8% 1.3% .7% 1.3%
Don't know/ unsure 4 3 2 12 3 2 3
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales,
should the number of Welsh MPs be cut?
Constituency
Alyn and
Deeside Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy Blaenau Gwent
Base: All respondents 27 27 18 24 25 20 23
2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3%
Yes 9 8 4 4 9 11 7
.9% .8% .4% .4% .9% 1.1% .7%
No 14 16 12 8 13 7 13
1.4% 1.6% 1.2% .8% 1.3% .7% 1.3%
Don't know/ unsure 4 3 2 12 3 2 3
.4% .3% .2% 1.2% .3% .2% .3%
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales,
should the number of Welsh MPs be cut?
Constituency
Ogmore
Swansea
East
Carmarthen
West and South
Pembrokeshire
Dwyfor
Meirionnydd
Brecon and
Radnorshire Llanelli Cardiff Central
Base: All respondents 25 26 25 21 25 25 27
2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7%
Yes 10 9 9 12 10 6 13
1.0% .9% .9% 1.2% 1.0% .6% 1.3%
No 13 12 10 8 8 14 12
1.3% 1.2% 1.0% .8% .8% 1.4% 1.2%
Don't know/ unsure 2 5 6 1 7 5 2
.2% .5% .6% .1% .7% .5% .2%
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in
Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut?
Constituency
Pontypridd Ynys Môn Rhondda
Merthyr Tydfil
and Rhymney Newport West Cardiff North Gower
Base: All respondents 26 22 23 23 27 29 27
2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7%
Yes 14 13 7 8 12 13 16
1.4% 1.3% .7% .8% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6%
No 6 5 9 12 10 13 9
.6% .5% .9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.3% .9%
Don't know/ unsure 6 4 7 3 5 3 2
.6% .4% .7% .3% .5% .3% .2%
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development
in Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut?
Constituency
Montgomeryshir
e Clwyd West
Carmarthen East
and Dinefwr Ceredigion
Vale of
Glamorgan Bridgend
Base: All respondents 22 26 23 26 31 26
2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6%
Yes 10 12 9 12 14 15
1.0% 1.2% .9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5%
No 10 9 13 14 8 10
1.0% .9% 1.3% 1.4% .8% 1.0%
Don't know/ unsure 2 5 1 0 9 1
.2% .5% .1% .0% .9% .1%
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic
development in Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut?
Constituency
Preseli
Pembrokeshire Monmouth Caerphilly Neath Aberavon Islwyn Torfaen
Base: All respondents 25 30 27 25 23 24 27
2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7%
Yes 10 12 11 8 9 9 14
1.0% 1.2% 1.1% .8% .9% .9% 1.4%
No 12 12 11 10 10 10 8
1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% .8%
Don't know/ unsure 3 6 5 7 4 5 5
.3% .6% .5% .7% .4% .5% .5%
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