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index

References to figures and tables are indicated by f and t following the page numbers.

AAalseth, C . E ., 105Access to sensitive information, 17, 131Accidental explosions as infrasound sources, 96Accuracy of event location . See Location accuracyAcoustic gravity waves, 91Acoustic thermometry, 172Adequate verification, 182–185, 213Aeromagnetic surveys, 154Aerosol isotopes filters collecting, 167–168 ranked by frequency of detection, 145–146, 146tAfrica African Commission on Nuclear Energy, 211 Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, 14, 184, 211Aftershock monitoring, 150–154, 150t, 151–153f, 205Agency for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America (OPANAL), 211,

211fAircraft incidents with volcanic ash, 169 observations, 144–145, 166, 205Akram, Munir, 18Albanian accidental explosion (2008), 96

244

Albright, Madeleine, 22Alluvium, 193Amplitude-distance curve, 36, 43fAntarctica ice calving or ice-shelf dislocations, 172, 173f planetary waves and, 169Antarctic channel, 114Antarctic Treaty of 1971, 10–11ARCES array (Norway), 41–42f, 43, 43f, 124fArgon, 64 Ar-37, 147–149, 148fArora, N ., 59Array stations, 41–42, 41–42f, 160, 177, 191Article XIV Conference, 12, 14, 18Ascension Island . See Chase 21 explosion (1970)Association process, 60–61Atmospheric nuclear explosions, 89–110 detectable features, 90, 91f, 199 infrasound monitoring, 90, 91–101 detection, 98–100 localization and characterization, 100–101 observations, 93–94 overview, 91–92 sources, 95–97 last explosion in atmosphere 30 years ago, 89 national technical means (NTM), 107–110 overview, 3 radionuclide monitoring, 102–107 noble gases, 107 particles monitoring, 103–104 particulate detection and tracking, 104–106 satellite-based systems monitoring, 89, 90, 108–110 seismological monitoring, 101–102 signals and noise, 90 verification, 90Atmospheric pumping, 147Automated data processing vs . experienced analysts, 58, 61, 175f, 176

BBackground radiation and xenon monitoring, 67–68, 67f, 166Backtracking, 73, 86, 106, 126, 196Baker underwater nuclear explosion, 111, 112f


245

Baneberry nuclear explosion (U .S .), 30, 31fBangkok Treaty, 211Barium/lanthanum, 103, 105, 105f, 146fBayesian inference methods, 58–59Beijing radionuclide station (China), 167fBenham nuclear explosion (U .S ., 1968), 150Bergman, E . A ., 51, 53Beryllium, 105Bhangmeters, 108Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), 10, 183, 189Bolides, 94f, 95, 95f, 169, 170Bolivia and Peru border, meteorite impact at, 96, 96fBowers, D ., 98, 101Boxcar nuclear explosion (U .S ., 1968), 150Bulgaria, accidental explosion (2008), 96Buoy system, 116Bush, George W . joint statement with Singh, 16 opposition to CTBT, 19BWC . See Biological Weapons Convention

CCalibration in precision monitoring, 194 in underwater monitoring, 121Canadian Radarsat-2, 197fCape Leeuwin hydroacoustic station (Australia), 119, 119f, 123fCarluccio, R ., 58Cavities and underground nuclear explosions effect on signals, 40, 193, 197–198 increasing risk of releases, 65CD . See Conference on DisarmamentCentral Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, 184, 211Cepstrum analysis, 55Certification of IMS stations, 10, 202CFE (Conventional Forces in Europe) Treaty, 189Chagos Archipelago hydroacoustic station (Indian Ocean), 173fChalk River isotope plant (Canada), 67, 70, 71fChase 21 explosion (1970), 118, 118f, 122–123, 123fChemical explosions, 79f, 122, 135, 147, 150, 190, 202Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), 11, 14, 132, 133, 155, 183, 189Chile earthquake (February 2010), 116

Index

246

China atmospheric nuclear testing by, 89 Beijing radionuclide station, 167f earthquakes in, 202 engaging in debate of abolition of nuclear weapons, conditions for, 27 Executive Council membership of, 203 monitoring ability for atmospheric nuclear explosions, 107–108 NPT and, 6, 20 nuclear warheads held by, 24 number of nuclear tests by, 23, 24 PTBT and, 21 signing and ratification of CTBT, 13–14, 21 subcritical experiments (SCEs), 32 zero-yield ban and, 22Cichowicz, A ., 50Clandestine testing, 156–157, 169, 203–205 . See also Verification of complianceClarification . See Consultation and clarification processClimate change, 169, 172Clinton, Bill, 18Cocos Island radionuclide station (Australia), 167fColwick nuclear explosion (U .S .), 151, 151fCommittee of the Red Cross, 200Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) . See also CTBT Organization

(CTBTO) adoption of, 6 Article I provisions, 7, 21 Article IV provisions, 188 Article V provisions, 131–132, 156, 187 Article XIV provisions, 12 compared to other treaties, 83, 184 in context of nuclear proliferation and disarmament, 27–28 countries needing to ratify for entry into force, 7 entry into force, 13–21, 206–212 inspections . See On-site inspections environmental protection and, 6 negotiations, 6, 7f preamble of, 6, 27 precedents, 20–21 provisions of, 7–23 ratification of, 7, 12, 13, 13f verification provisions of . See Verification of complianceComputer software, 143–144, 162, 196–197


247

Conference of Committee on Disarmament (CCD), 161Conference of the States Parties election of Executive Council, 133 Executive Council deferring non-compliance issues to, 185 initial session, 12, 132, 195, 207 role of, 7 special session request, 135Conference on Disarmament (CD), 5, 6f, 21 Group of Scientific Experts, 32–33, 161, 184, 190Confidence building, 189–190Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, 19Consultation and clarification process, 10, 185, 201–202Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE), 189Cooperation CTBT provisions for “cooperating national facilities,” 202 regional cooperation, 209–212 with scientific research community, 164–168, 177–179, 190Cosmos early warning satellite systems (Russia), 107Coxhead, M ., 144CTBT . See Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty“CTBT: Synergy with Science 1996–2006 and Beyond” (PTS symposium), 174CTBT Organization (CTBTO) Conference of the States Parties, 7 entry into force, 207–208 establishment of, 3, 7 Executive Council . See Executive Council Executive Secretary, 12 Preparatory Commission . See Preparatory Commission (PrepCom) phase role of, 185 scientific community and, 165, 168, 177–178, 190, 208 Technical Secretariats, 9Cut-off treaty, 166CWC . See Chemical Weapons ConventionCyclones, 169

DD’Agostino, Tom, 20D’Amours, R ., 70Data fusion procedures, 57, 60, 74Data mining, 57–58, 61, 162, 174–176, 197Dead Sea explosion (1999), 123–124Decoupling techniques, 40, 197–198

Index

248

Definition of nuclear weapon test explosion, 21, 30Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) . See Korea, Democratic People’s

Republic ofDepth estimation for earthquakes, 53, 54, 202 for underground nuclear explosions, 53–54Detection . See also Precision monitoring atmospheric nuclear explosions, 90, 91f, 98–100 hydroacoustic monitoring, 117–118, 117–118f infrasound monitoring, 98–100 likelihood of, 199–200 underground nuclear explosions . See Underground nuclear explosions underwater nuclear explosions, 117–118, 117–118f xenon monitoring, 63t, 64, 68–73, 69–72fDeterrence, 182, 186–187, 212–213Discrimination to separate explosions from earthquakes underground nuclear explosions, 54–57, 55f, 57f, 78, 79f case studies, 54–56 event screening, 56–57 precision monitoring, 85 xenon monitoring, 74–75DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) . See Korea, Democratic People’s

Republic ofDrilling into an explosion cavity, 140Dual use of IMS data . See Synergy with science

EEarthquakes depth estimates of, 53, 54, 202 event discrimination to separate from nuclear explosions, 54–57, 55f aftershock monitoring and, 154 Chase 21 explosion vs . underground explosion vs . earthquake, 122–123, 123f hydroacoustic observations, 122 non-governmental monitoring and, 200 regional approach, 85 screening by generally applicable criteria, 193 spectral ratios, 78, 79f states’ ability to show earthquake as triggering event, 156, 202, 204 Fukushima nuclear reactor accident (2011) and, 166 hydroacoustic signals and, 172 Juan Fernández Island hydroacoustic station and, 116 precision monitoring and, 165, 194, 197


249

satellite monitoring of, 197 seismic signals attributed to, 161Ecuador volcanic eruption (July 2006), 170fEgypt’s signing and ratification of CTBT, 14–15El Baradei, Mohamed, 25–26Electromagnetic pulse (EMP), 108, 109fEnforcement . See Non-complianceEngdahl, E . R ., 51, 53Entry into force, 13–21Environmental background radioactivity, 67–68, 67f, 166Equator atmospheric nuclear radioactivity not crossing, 90 detection levels at, 73Equipment . See On-site inspections (OSI)European Union common foreign and security policy (CFSP), 210–211 infrasound events, detection of, 99 joint verification centers, proposal for, 2, 210–211 regional infrasound network in, 168 Satellite Center (EUSC), 210–211, 210fEvent location . See Location accuracyExecutive Council membership of, 133–135, 134t, 203 need for diverse input from states parties, 209 OSI approval, 10, 126, 130, 131, 155, 157, 185, 203 referrals to UN, 132 role of, 7Experts automated data processing vs . experienced analysts, 58, 175f, 176 Group of Scientific Experts (GSE), 32–33, 161, 184, 190 recruitment of, 177, 198 training of, 178, 179, 210Explosion yield estimates, 38–39, 197Eyjafjallajökull volcano (Iceland), 94

FFalse alarms, 40–42, 41f, 55Fast On-Orbit Recording of Transient Events (FORTE) satellite, 110Faultless nuclear explosion (U .S ., 1968), 150Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN), 34Fee, D ., 169–170Field tests . See Integrated Field Exercise (IFE08, Kazakhstan)

Index

250

Filters to collect radionuclide particles, 103–104, 167–168, 167fFisk, M ., 122Fleurus medical isotope plant (Belgium), 67FORTE satellite, 110Forward modeling, 73–74, 86, 196France atmospheric nuclear testing by, 89, 91, 92f CTBT and, 21 engaging in debate of abolition of nuclear weapons, conditions for, 27 Executive Council membership of, 203 monitoring ability for atmospheric nuclear explosions, 107–108 NPT and, 6, 20 nuclear warheads held by, 24 number of nuclear tests by, 23 PTBT and, 21 Reseau Sismique Polynesien (RSP, seismic network), 172Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on CTBT, 26French Polynesia, atmospheric nuclear testing in, 91, 92f, 172Frequency filtering, 35, 35fFriese, J . I ., 148Fukushima nuclear reactor accident (2011), 166, 201

GGamma surveys, 149–150, 149fGeophysical exploration techniques, 154–155, 195, 206German National Data Center, 51Ginzkey, L ., 116Gitterman, Y ., 40Global Communications Infrastructure, 33Global Nuclear Security Summit (April 2010), 25Global Seismographic Network (GSN), 34Global Zero, 26Google, 60GPS satellites, 108, 110, 199Green, D . N ., 98, 101Greenland infrasound station, 93, 93f“Ground Truth” (GT), 49, 52Group of Scientific Experts (GSE), 32–33, 161, 184, 190GT5 events, 51–52, 52–53f, 53


251

HHadley cell, 73Hafemeister, D ., 76Han, X ., 140Hatoyama, Yukio, 16Hecker, Sigfried, 19Hu Jintao, 13Hurricanes, 169Hydroacoustic monitoring atmospheric nuclear explosions, 90 effectiveness of, 199 global network, 9f, 10 map of station locations, 8f, 9 underwater, 3, 113–114, 170–174, 199 . See also Oceans, nuclear explosions inHydrodynamic experiments, 32Hydronuclear experiments, 32Hydrophones, 115, 116f, 118, 119, 172Hyvernaud, O ., 119

IIAEA . See International Atomic Energy AgencyICBL (International Campaign to Ban Landmines), 200ICBMs (Intercontinental ballistic missiles), 24Iceberg tracking, 172, 173fIceland volcanic eruption (spring 2010), 169IDC . See International Data Center (Vienna)IFE08 . See Integrated Field Exercise (Kazakhstan)IMS . See International Monitoring SystemIncorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), 200India moratorium in nuclear testing by, 21 nuclear testing by, 6, 23, 24 signing and ratification of CTBT, 15–16 unknown nuclear arsenal size of, 24–25 UN Security Council resolution condemning nuclear testing by, 156 U .S .-India nuclear agreement, 18Indonesia’s signing and ratification of CTBT, 16 Information sharing among countries, 166, 200 of radionuclide observations from Fukushima, 201 with scientific community . See Scientific research community, cooperation

with

Index

252

Information technology, developments in, 162 . See also Data miningInfrared sensors, 109Infrasound monitoring atmospheric effects and, 169, 199 atmospheric nuclear explosions, 90, 91–101 accidental explosions, 96 meteorites and bolides, 95–96, 95–96f planned explosions for testing and calibration purposes, 96–97, 97f volcanos . See Volcanic eruptions global network, 9–10, 9f map of station locations, 8f, 9 regional network in Europe, 168 synergy with other sciences, 168–170INGE (International Noble Gas Experiment), 66INGV (National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology), 54InSAR . See Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar satellitesInspection and inspection team . See On-site inspections (OSI)Integrated Field Exercise (IFE08, Kazakhstan), 137, 142, 144, 145f, 153, 205Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), 24Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar satellites (InSAR), 76, 76t, 77f, 143, 162,

196Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, 11, 183, 189International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Additional Protocol, 11, 14, 166, 184 headquarters, Vienna, 189f inspections, 11, 184 Iran’s nuclear activities and, 17 North Korea, requests for access to, 155 NPT and, 83, 183 safeguard agreements, 11, 132, 166, 184 states sharing data with, 166, 201International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL), 200International Data Center (IDC, Vienna), 10, 33, 162, 185International Monitoring System (IMS), 1–2, 191–193 array stations . See Array stations benefits of, 192–193 confidence building and, 190 CTBTO role, 185 CTBT provisions, 9 global network, 9–10, 9f, 191 no operational performance criteria specified, 188 readiness upon entry into force of CTBT, 207


253

satellite monitoring not part of, 75 seismological . See Seismological monitoring stations . See Array stations; Monitoring stations TS role, 185, 192 xenon monitoring network, 70, 86, 195International Noble Gas Experiment (INGE), 66International Scientific Studies Conference (ISS09) accuracy of seismic data, 193 data mining, 176 data processing, 58 hydroacoustic observations, 122 location accuracy, 49, 51, 85 monitoring technologies, 2 OSI technologies, 143 scientific and technological developments, 161–162 seismo-acoustic applications, 114 xenon monitoring, 63, 67International Scientific Studies (ISS) project, 190International Seismological Center (ISC), 45Internet’s deterrent effect, 187 Iodine, 103, 105–106, 106f, 107, 146fIran earthquakes in, 202 non-government monitoring of nuclear activities of, 201 signing and ratification of CTBT, 17 Telemetered Seismic Network . See Tehran networkIraq’s clandestine nuclear weapons program, 184IRIS (Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology), 200ISC (International Seismological Center), 45Israel chemical test explosions by, 102 NPT and, 14 no nuclear testing by, 24 signing and ratification of CTBT, 17 test and calibration explosions in Negev Desert, 96–97, 97f unknown nuclear arsenal size of, 24–25ISS09 . See International Scientific Studies ConferenceItalian Seismological Network, 50–51, 59, 59fItaly, earthquake depth estimates in, 54Ivanov, Sergey, 31–32

Index

254

JJapan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 113 explosions off coast of, detection of, 117–118, 117f, 119, 120f Fukushima nuclear reactor accident (2011), 166, 201JASON Group report (2007), 20Jepsen, D ., 122Joint verification center . See Regional cooperationJoint Verification Experiment (JVE), 39, 190Joswig, M ., 153Juan Fernández Island hydroacoustic station, 116, 117, 117f, 119, 172

KKansong, South Korea, observations of DPRK nuclear tests, 81–82fKapralov, Yuri, 22Kazakhstan Integrated Field Exercise in (October 2008), 137, 142, 144, 145f, 153, 205 location accuracy for events in mining areas, 49t, 51 rocket launches, 96Kim, W . Y ., 55Kissinger, Henry, 26Korea, Democratic People’s Republic of event characterization (discrimination) to separate explosions from

earthquakes and, 54, 55, 56f IAEA requests for access to, 155 non-government monitoring of nuclear activities of, 201 non-participation in renouncing nuclear testing, 189 nuclear arsenal size of, 25 nuclear testing by, 6, 21, 24 OSI and, 135 signing and ratification of CTBT, 14 threshold monitoring and, 47–48 undeclared nuclear material and activities of, 184 underground nuclear explosions, 77–84, 78–83f UN Security Council resolution condemning nuclear testing by, 156 uranium enrichment facility in, 14 xenon releases from underground nuclear explosions of, 63t, 64 detection, 69–71f, 70, 86Korea, South . See South KoreaKovacs, A . C ., 153Kursk submarine (Russia), 124, 124fKuzma, H ., 58Kværna, T ., 42, 47, 48


255

LLamb waves, 91Lamont-Doherty (research group), 95Landmines, 200Lanthanum . See Barium/lanthanumLatin America Agency for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America (OPANAL),

211, 211f Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, 184, 211Ledogar, Stephen, 22Le Monde on CTBT, 26Le Pichon, A ., 98, 101Life extension programs (LEP), 20Liu, Y ., 60Location accuracy hydroacoustic monitoring, 118–121, 120f, 199 on-site inspections (OSI), 48, 138–140, 139f uncertainties in relation to dimensions of inspection area, 204–205 underground nuclear explosions, 48–54 case studies, 49–51, 49t, 50f depth estimation, 53–54 global capabilities, 51–53, 52f underwater nuclear explosions, 118–121, 120f xenon monitoring, 73–74Long Shot nuclear test (US 1965), 160Lop Nor test site (China), 32, 55Los Alamos (U .S .), 32Low-yield nuclear explosive devices, 25

MMagnitude reporting, uncertainty in, 36–38Managed access, 131Materni, V ., 54–55mb-Ms method, 55Measurements nuclear explosions used for seismic measurements, 160–161 underground nuclear explosions, 33–35 xenon monitoring, 66Medical isotope production facilities, 67–68, 67f, 166, 196 xenon emissions compared to nuclear reactors, 67, 68fMedvedev, Dmitry, 22, 26

Index

256

Meteoroid explosions as infrasound sources, 95–96, 96f, 170 Oregon, 94, 94fMiddle East, 14–15, 17Miley, H ., 63Mine Ban Treaty, 200Mining explosions, 49, 49t, 50, 50f, 190MKAR (Kazakhstan), 43–44, 44f, 45Mobile laboratories, 137f, 205Molybdenum, 103Monitoring aftershock . See Aftershock monitoring hydroacoustic monitoring, 3, 113–123 . See also Oceans, nuclear explosions in infrasound monitoring, 90, 91–101 . See also Atmospheric nuclear explosions;

Infrasound monitoring non-governmental, 200–201 precision . See Precision monitoring underground nuclear explosions, 29–87 . See also Underground nuclear

explosionsMonitoring centers . See Regional cooperationMonitoring stations . See also Array stations certification of, 10, 202 “cooperating national facilities,” 202 hydroacoustic monitoring, 8f, 9 non-governmental, 200–201 non-IMS stations, 34, 191–192, 202 number and location of IMS stations, 8f, 9, 162, 188 sites of seismic stations, 34, 34f specifications for, 162, 192 “to be determined” IMS stations, 16, 195 TS role, 192 underground nuclear explosions, 35f, 36–37 underwater nuclear explosions, 114–116 xenon stations, 66, 86, 195–196Monowai sea mount (Antarctica), 172Murphy, J . R ., 80

NNAM . See Non-Aligned MovementNatalegawa, Marty M ., 16National Academy of Sciences (NAS, U .S .), 20, 47National Data Centers, 51, 179


257

National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), 54National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), 20National technical means (NTM), 107–110 data used in, 34 defined, 130 deterrent effect of, 187 satellite-based, 89, 90 verification technologies, 161 xenon stations, 196Nehru, Jawaharlal, 15, 15fNetwork capabilities infrasound monitoring, 9–10, 9f radionuclide xenon monitoring, 9, 9f, 66, 86, 195–196 seismological monitoring, 164–165 underground nuclear explosions, 45–47, 46f, 61–62Nevada Test Site (NTS; now Nevada National Security Site) aftershock rates, 151–152, 151–152f atmospheric explosions, 102 Badger, atmospheric explosion, 91f Non-Proliferation Experiment (NPE, 1993), 147, 147f underground explosions, 24, 30, 31, 35f, 38, 39, 76tNew paradigm for seismic analysis, 60–62, 85–86, 174, 212New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START, 2010), 24, 28fNGOs (non-governmental organizations), 200Nitze, Paul, 183NNSA (National Nuclear Security Administration), 20Noble gases . See also Xenon radionuclide monitoring atmospheric nuclear explosions producing, 107 environmental background radioactivity, 166 Fukushima nuclear reactor accident (2011) and, 166 IMS network, 195 . See also Xenon monitoring on-site inspections and, 147–149, 148f, 150 underground nuclear explosions producing, 30, 64, 65 underwater nuclear explosions producing, 125Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), 14, 15, 16, 17, 27Non-compliance consultation and clarification process, 10, 185, 201–202 deterring . See Deterrence sanctions, 187 UN role . See United NationsNon-governmental organizations (NGOs), 200Non-Proliferation Experiment (NPE, 1993), 147, 147f, 150

Index

258

Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Treaty on the (NPT) . See also International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

Article VI, 27, 28 confidence building, 189 Congressional Commission recommendations on, 19 Egypt’s compliance with, 14 entry into force, 21 India not signatory, 15 linked to CTBT, 27–28 moratorium, 6 North Korea’s withdrawal from, 14 purpose of, 26 ratification of key countries not completed for 20 years, 20 UN Security Council Resolution 1887 on, 25 verification process, 183–184NORES station (Norway), 124fNORSAR array site (Norway), 35f, 124North Korea . See Korea, Democratic People’s Republic ofNovaya Zemlya test site (former Soviet Union), 31–32, 48, 64, 111NPT . See Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Treaty on theNPT Review Conferences, 13, 14, 16, 26, 27–28NTM . See National technical meansNTS . See Nevada Test SiteNuclear reactors Fukushima accident, 166 isotope ratios from reactors vs . explosions, 65f, 74Nuclear Security Project, 26Nuclear testing . See also Atmospheric nuclear explosions, Underground nuclear

explosions ban on, 6, 184 cessation of, 5, 15 moratorium on, 6, 16, 18, 21, 189Nuclear weapon-related experiments, 30–32Nunn, Sam, 26

OObama, Barack Global Nuclear Security Summit (April 2010) and, 25 support for U .S . ratification of CTBT, 19, 25 on time needed to achieve abolition of nuclear weapons, 26Oceans, nuclear explosions in, 111–127 history of, 111–112


259

hydroacoustic monitoring, 3, 113–123, 199 calibration, usefulness of, 121 detection, 117–118, 117–118f location accuracy, 118–121, 120f, 199 monitoring stations, 114–116 multitude of sources, 121–123, 121f overview, 3 radionuclide observations of, 125–126 satellite observations of, 126–127 seismic monitoring, 123–125 transparency of oceans, 112–113Ocean warming, 172Odom, R . I ., 114Oil exploration, 154On-site inspections (OSI), 129–157 access to sensitive information and, 17, 131 conduct of, 2, 10, 48, 136–142 conclusion of, 157 equipment for, 136, 137f, 142, 143f, 163, 206, 208 logistics, 142 operational manual, 136–137 systemic approach, 138–140 time lines from test manual, 137, 138f data fusion and, 60 defined in CTBT, 130 inspection team, 2, 129f, 132, 132f, 140–142, 141f, 185, 206 location accuracy, 48, 138–140, 139f in oceanic areas, 126 overview, 1, 2, 129–130 political context, 130–132 purpose of, 130 reflections on frame, 132–136 refusal of state to allow, 156, 203–204 requests for activities triggered by, 131 consultation and clarification . See Consultation and clarification process evidence for, 130, 203 new evidence for second request, 205 purpose of, 2, 10 technologies, 140, 143–155 geophysical exploration techniques, 154–155, 195, 206 radionuclide techniques, 145–150, 146f, 146t

Index

260

seismological aftershock monitoring, 150–154, 150t synergy with other sciences, 163 visual observations, 143–145 as tool for states to verify and deter, 1, 4, 155–157, 182, 203–206 . See also

Verification of compliance TS role, 185 voting on, 9, 10, 155, 185, 203OPANAL (Agency for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America), 211, 211fOpen-source data, 201Optical flash from atmospheric nuclear explosions, 108, 109f, 199Optical satellites, 87, 107, 196OSI . See On-site inspectionsOttawa Process, 200Overhead observations from aircraft . See Aircraft

PPakistan moratorium on nuclear testing by, 21 nuclear testing by, 6, 23, 24 signing and ratification of CTBT, 18 unknown nuclear arsenal size of, 24–25 UN Security Council resolution condemning nuclear testing by, 156Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT), 5, 10, 11f, 15, 21, 24, 29, 89Particles monitoring, 103–104 filters . See Filters to collect radionuclide particles Fukushima nuclear reactor accident (2011) and, 166 particulate detection and tracking, 104–106Peaceful nuclear explosions (PNEs), 24Pelindaba isotope plant (South Africa), 67, 68Pelindaba Treaty, 211Perry, William J ., 19, 26Peru and Bolivia border, meteorite impact at, 96, 96f“Physics package,” 30Planetary waves, 169PNEs (peaceful nuclear explosions), 24Poland, location accuracy for events in mining areas, 49tPolitical context, 5–28, 182–190 . See also specific countriesPrecision monitoring development of, 2, 3, 179 DPRK location of explosions, 81 joint analysis centers for, 198 regional cooperation for, 210


261

satellite-based, 162, 194, 197 seismology using, 165, 194, 195f, 198 underground nuclear explosions, 62, 84–87 verification process using, 181–182, 193–198, 204, 205Preparatory Commission (PrepCom) certification of IMS stations, 10 confidence building and, 190 educational role of, 160 headquarters, 189f IFE08 and, 142 monitoring stations, specifications for, 162 North Korean explosions and, 83 operational manual drafting, 137, 206, 207–208 PTS . See Provisional Technical Secretariat report on operational readiness, 207 role of, 9, 12 systemic approach to OSI, 138 technologies, 143 upgrading auxiliary stations, 34 U .S . participation in, 133Probability maps, 59, 59fProvisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) collection and storage of filters by, 104 conversion into TS, 208 cooperation with research community future challenges, 177–179 hydroacoustic signals, 171 infrasound, 169 radionuclides, 164–166, 168 DPRK nuclear explosions and, 83 event screening report, 56 external reviews of, 208 Fukushima leakages and, 201 GT5 events and, 51–54 infrasound monitoring and, 93 network capabilities of, 45 quality assurance program, 104 reference event database established by, 95 role of, 9, 12 TS compared with, 185 underwater nuclear explosions reported by, 119–120PTBT . See Partial Test Ban Treaty

Index

262

Pulse light and electromagnetic ash from atmospheric nuclear explosions, 108, 109f, 199

Pumping, atmospheric, 147

QQuickBird, 75

RRadar satellites, 76, 107, 143, 196 . See also Interferometric Synthetic Aperture

Radar satellites (InSAR) Radionuclide monitoring . See also Xenon monitoring atmospheric nuclear explosions, 102–107 filters . See Filters to collect radionuclide particles global network, 9, 9f improving methods for, 166 map of station locations, 8f, 9 non-conclusive nature of, 204 on-site inspections (OSI), 145–150, 146f, 146t role of, 3 synergy with science, 165–168 underground nuclear explosions, 63 underwater nuclear explosions, 125–126Rarotonga Treaty, 211REB . See Reviewed Event BulletinReceiver operating characteristics (ROC), 41, 41fReflection surveys, 154Refusal of state to allow on-site inspections, 156, 203–204 . See also Non-

complianceRegional cooperation, 168, 178–179, 184, 189, 190, 198, 209–212Regional seismic wave propagation, 38, 39fResearch organizations, seismological data provided to, 164Reseau Sismique Polynesien (RSP, French seismic network), 172Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) event screening and, 56 infrasound monitoring and, 94 locations and, 52fRingbom, A ., 63, 70Ringdal, F ., 42, 47ROC (receiver operating characteristics), 41, 41fRocket launches and re-entries as infrasound sources, 96Russell, S ., 58


fl

263

Russian Federation . See also Soviet Union earthquakes in, 202 Executive Council membership of, 203 New START treaty with U .S ., 24 NPT and, 6 satellite systems of, 107 zero-yield ban and, 22Ruthenium, 103

SSaey, P . R . J ., 68Safeguards agreements . See International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)Salzberg, D ., 172Sanctions for non-compliance, 6, 187Satellite-based monitoring atmospheric nuclear explosions, 89, 90, 107–110, 199 capabilities of types of, 87 DPRK test site, 79f European Union Satellite Center (EUSC), 210–211, 210f GPS . See GPS satellites increased monitoring via, 196–197 interferometric mode radar satellites (InSAR), 76, 76t, 77f, 196 low-cost systems, 87, 196 non-governmental, 201 optical systems . See Optical satellites planning for OSI, 143–144 precision monitoring, 162, 194, 197 radar . See Radar satellites role of, 2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR), 76 technological improvements in, 162 underground nuclear explosions . See Underground nuclear explosions underwater nuclear explosions, 126–127Sayuz TMA-11 capsule re-entry, 96Schlesinger, James, 19Schoengold, C . R ., 145Schorlemmer, D ., 59Scientific research community, cooperation with, 164–168, 177–179, 190, 208, 209Scientific synergy . See Synergy with scienceScope of zero yield, 21–22Seasonal variation of detection levels, 73, 98, 99fSeepage, 147

Index

264

Seismic wave propagation, 38, 39f, 165Seismological monitoring aftershock monitoring, 150–154 atmospheric nuclear explosions, 101–102 IMS network, 164–165 map of station locations, 8f, 9 oceanic explosions, 123–125 precision . See Precision monitoring sites of seismic stations, 34, 34f underground nuclear explosions, 30, 32–62 . See also Underground nuclear

explosions underwater nuclear explosions, 123–125Seismology, science of, 32, 160, 164–165Semipalatinsk test site (former Soviet Union), 29, 32, 38, 39, 64, 147 aftershocks, 150, 150t, 151fShahbaz (Ambassador, Pakistan), 18Shalikashvili, John M ., 186, 186fSharif, Nawaz, 18Ship monitoring by satellites, 126–127, 127fShort-period background noise, 36, 37fShultz, George, 26Signals and noise . See also Infrasound, Seismological, and Hydroacoustic

monitoring aftershocks and, 152 atmospheric nuclear explosions, 90 underground nuclear explosions, 35–40Singh, Manmohan, 16Sites of nuclear tests, 23f, 24SLBMs (submarine launched ballistic missiles), 24Slipchenko, Victor, 22Slovakian accidental explosion (2007), 96Sound fixing and ranging (SOFAR) channel, 113–115, 114–115f, 117, 118Sound monitoring . See Infrasound monitoring; Signals and noiseSound Surveillance System (SOSUS, U .S . Navy), 113, 120South Africa, location accuracy for events in mining areas, 49t, 50South Atlantic Ocean possible nuclear explosion (1979), 108Southeast Asia ASEAN Secretariat, 211 Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, 16, 184, 211South Korea’s detection of infrasound events, 99, 100fSouth Pacific Forum Secretariat, 211 Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, 184, 211


265

Soviet Union atmospheric nuclear testing by, 89 bilateral agreements with U .S ., 11, 132, 189 decoupling techniques, 40 hydronuclear experiments, 32 nuclear warheads held by, 24 number of nuclear tests by, 23, 24 peaceful nuclear explosions (PNEs) by, 24 PTBT and, 5, 89 seismic measurements from nuclear explosions, 161 TTBT and, 5 underwater nuclear explosions by, 111 xenon releases from underground nuclear explosions of, 63t, 64Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS), 109Spectrogram of whale vocalizations, 122, 122fSPITS station, 124fSpontaneous fission of uranium creating xenon, 68Starr, Richard, 22State Department (U .S .) analysis of CTBT, 21 report on compliance with arms control agreements (2010), 19States parties, 3, 209 verification . See Verification of complianceStephen, Ralph A ., 114Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP), 19, 20, 31Stohl, A ., 73Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), 11Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (Moscow Treaty), 11Subcritical experiments (SCEs), 31Submarine detection, 113Submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), 24Sumatra earthquake (December 2004), 172, 173fSupervised training algorithm, 58Sweden leakage detection from underground nuclear explosions, 63t, 64, 105 location accuracy for events in mining areas, 49, 49t, 50fSynergy with science, 159–179 CTBT and, 160–161 future relationship between CTBTO and scientific community, 177–178 exploitation for different sciences, 163–176 data mining, 174–176 hydroacoustic monitoring, 170–174, 171f, 177 infrasound, 168–170, 177

Index

266

radionuclide observations, 165–168 seismology, 164–165 overview, 3 rapid S&T development, 161–163 scientific community, cooperation with, 164–168, 178–179, 190 seismology, 160, 164–165Synthetic aperture radar (SAR), 76 . See also Interferometric Synthetic Aperture

Radar satellites (InSAR)

TTaepodong-2 long-distance missile (April 2009), 96Technical Secretariat (TS) compared with IAEA, 184–185 data analysis by, 34, 75, 83, 192 inspection team and, 140 OSI requests and, 130, 131 PTS converting to, 208 role of, 9Technologies . See On-site inspections (OSI)Tehran network, 44f, 45Terrorists, 25–26Testing . See also specific countries conducting tests ban, desirability of, 6 as part of nuclear weapon development, 23–25 sites of tests, 23f, 24“Test manual” for on-site inspections, 137–138, 138fThreshold monitoring, 46f, 47–48, 87, 194Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT), 5, 11, 21, 38–39, 161, 190Thunderstorms, 169The Times on CTBT, 26Tlatelolco Treaty, 211, 211fT-phase stations, 116, 116f, 172Transport modeling, 168TS . See Technical SecretariatTsunami, 166, 172TTBT . See Threshold Test Ban TreatyTunguharua volcanic eruption (July 2006), 170f

UUnderground nuclear explosions, 29–87 background radiation, 67–68 cavity . See Cavities and underground nuclear explosions


267

characteristics of, 29–30 detection, 35–48 amplitude-distance curve, 36, 43f cavity effect on signals, 40 explosion yield estimates, 38–39 false alarms, 40–42, 41f frequency filtering, 35, 35f individual station capabilities, 42–45 magnitude reporting, uncertainty in, 36–38 network capabilities, 45–47, 46f, 61–62 processes, 40–42 regional seismic wave propagation, 38, 39f short-period background noise, 36, 37f signals and noise, 35–40 station variations, 35f, 36–37 threshold monitoring, 46f, 47–48 event characterization to separate explosions from earthquakes . See

Earthquakes event location, 48–54 . See also Location accuracy case studies, 49–51, 49t, 50f depth estimation, 53–54 global capabilities, 51–53, 52f history, 23 monitoring, 30, 32–62 association process, 60–61 automatic process, 61 measurements, 33–35 new methods to analyze and exploit data, 57–60 new paradigm for seismic analysis, 60–62, 85–86, 174 North Korean nuclear explosions, 77–84, 78–83f nuclear weapon-related experiments, 30–32 overview, 3, 29 precision monitoring, 84–87 preparations for, observation of, 144–145, 145f PTBT and, 5 radionuclide xenon monitoring, 63–75 background radiation, 67–68, 67f calculated isotope ratios after explosions, 75, 75f corroborating evidence needed, 74 detection, 68–73, 69–72f discrimination, 74–75 DPRK nuclear tests, 81–82f

Index

268

IMS xenon network, 66, 86, 195–196 isotope ratios from reactors vs . explosions, 65f, 74 leakage detection, 63t, 64 localization, 73–74 measurements, 66, 147, 147f medical isotope production facilities’ compared to nuclear reactors’

emissions, 67, 68f new IMS xenon network, 195–196 release of xenon, 63–66 satellite-based monitoring, 30, 75–77, 87, 144 . See also Satellite-based

monitoring sites of seismic stations, 34, 34f threshold monitoring, 46f, 87 TTBT and, 5Underwater nuclear explosions . See Oceans, nuclear explosions inUngar, R . K ., 75United Kingdom Buncefield accidental explosion (2005), 96 engaging in debate of abolition of nuclear weapons, conditions for, 27 Executive Council membership of, 203 monitoring ability for atmospheric nuclear explosions, 107–108 NPT and, 6 nuclear warheads held by, 24 number of nuclear weapon tests by, 23 PTBT and, 5, 89 subcritical experiments (SCEs), 31United Nations General Council resolution condemning nuclear testing, 15 non-compliance issues brought to, 132, 156, 187 Special Commission (UNSCOM) in Iraq, 132United Nations Security Council BWC role, 183 Iran’s nuclear activities and, 17 recourse to, when OSI not approved, 136 resolutions condemning nuclear testing, 6, 156 sanctions for non-compliance, 187 Summit (September 2009) adopting Resolution 1887, 25United States atmospheric nuclear testing by, 89 bilateral agreements with Soviet Union, 11, 132, 189 decoupling techniques, 40 definition of nuclear weapon test explosion as issue in, 21


269

earthquakes in, 202 Executive Council membership of, 203 hydronuclear experiments, 32 India-U .S . nuclear agreement, 18 location accuracy for events in Wyoming, 49, 49t New START treaty with Russia, 24 NPT and, 6 nuclear warheads held by, 24, 25f number of nuclear weapon tests by, 23, 24 peaceful nuclear explosions (PNEs) by, 24 PTBT and, 5, 89 signing and ratification of CTBT, 18–20 satellite system of, 108–110, 199 . See also Satellite-based monitoring subcritical experiments (SCEs), 31 treaties with Soviet Union/Russian Federation, 11 TTBT and, 5 underwater nuclear explosions by, 111 xenon releases from underground nuclear explosions of, 63t, 64U .S . Defense Support Program (DSP), 109U .S . Geological Survey, 53U .S . Navy Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS), 113USArray, 33, 94, 170U .S Presidential Panel (1980) on satellite observation of possible nuclear

explosion, 108

VVAAC (Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers), 170Vaidya, S ., 58Vajpayee, Atal Behari, 16Vela satellites and program (U .S .), 89, 108–110, 160Verification of compliance, 1, 181–213 . See also On-site inspections (OSI) atmospheric nuclear explosions, 90 consultation and clarification, 10, 185, 201–202 CTBT provisions, overview of, 10–11 detection and deterrence, 212–213 DPRK nuclear explosions and, 83–84 joint verification centers, proposal for, 2, 209–212 monitoring, 191–201 International Monitoring System, 191–193 . See also International

Monitoring System (IMS) non-governmental monitoring, 200–201 wide-area monitoring, 198–200

Index

270

on-site inspections, 203–206 political process, 182–190 adequacy of verification, 182–185, 213 confidence building, 189–190 deterring non-compliance, 182, 186–187 verification regime and shortcomings, 188 precision monitoring, 193–198 PTBT lacking verification provisions, 89 readiness for entry into force, 206–212 CTBTO, 207–208 regional cooperation, 209–212 states parties, 209Vincent, P ., 76Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC), 170Volcanic eruptions hydroacoustic signals, 172 infrasound observations, 94, 95, 169–170, 170f

WWake Island hydroacoustic station, 119, 123fWall Street Journal op-eds by Shultz, Kissinger, Perry, and Nunn (2007 & 2008), 26Wave propagation . See Seismic, Infrasound, and Hydoacoustic wave propagationWeapons of mass destruction (WMDs), treaties on, 10–11, 183Weather events, infrasound monitoring to identify, 169Wei, F . S ., 55Werzi, R ., 105Whale vocalizations spectrogram of, 122, 122f tracking whale migrations by, 171–172Whistleblowers, 187Wide-area monitoring, 198–200Wikileaks, 201Working Group on Verification, 18World Health Organization, 166, 201World Wide Standard Seismograph Network (WWSSN), 160

XXenon monitoring, 63–75 atmospheric nuclear explosions, 107 deterrent effect of, 186–187 environmental background radioactivity, 166 experimental mobile sampling unit for, 137f


271

medical isotope production . See Medical isotope production facilities synergy with other sciences, 166 underground nuclear explosions, 63–75, 192 background radiation, 67–68, 67f calculated isotope ratios after explosions, 75, 75f corroborating evidence needed, 74 detection, 63t, 64, 68–73, 69–72f discrimination, 74–75, 204 DPRK nuclear tests, 81–82f, 135 IMS xenon network, 70, 86, 195 isotope ratios from reactors vs . explosions, 65f, 74 localization, 73–74 measurements, 66, 147–148f release of xenon, 63–66 Xe-131m, 64, 71, 71t, 74, 82, 83f, 147 Xe-133, 64, 67, 67f, 68t, 69–71f, 70–71, 71t, 72f, 73–74, 75f, 81–82, 81t, 83f,

147–149, 148f Xe-135, 64, 66, 71, 71t, 72f, 73–75, 81, 83fXu, Z . H ., 55

YYellowknife, Canada, detection of xenon release from DPRK event, 70–71f

ZZero yield, 21–22Zirconium, 103

Index