Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State - …gelman/presentations/...Anna Karenina and the Paradox Resolved Voter's income Probability of voting for McCain (poor) (rich) 25%

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Geography, Income, and VotersExplanations and Implications

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Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor StateWhy Americans Vote the Way They Do

Andrew Gelman

Dept of Statistics and Dept of Political Science, Columbia University

29 Oct 2010

Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

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Election 2010The ParadoxJournalists Get It Wrong (and Right)

Election 2010

I Public opinion and voting

I Factors that predict congressional elections

I What's going on with public opinion?

Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State 2/62

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Public opinion and voting time series

I Most variable: Presidential approval

I Less variable: Trial-heat polls (�Whom party do you plan to

vote for?�)

I Less variable: Presidential election outcomes

I Less variable: Congressional election outcomes

I Slowest to vary: Party identi�cation


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Congressional and presidential voting


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Unpredictability of polling trends

I �Polling is essentially a random walk . . . the polls are about

equally likely to move toward one or another candidate,

regardless of which way they have moved in the past.� �

Nate Silver, New York Times, Oct 2010

I You can't use past polling trends to predict the future

I Analogy to coin �ipping, e�cient stock prices

I �Random walk� sounds reasonable, but . . .


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Is polling really a �random walk�? Some simulations

Random walk simulation 1

Time

Pol

l diff

eren

tial

−300 −200 −100 0

−10

010


Time

Pol

l diff

eren

tial

−300 −200 −100 0

−10

010


Time

Pol

l diff

eren

tial

−300 −200 −100 0

−10

010


Time

Pol

l diff

eren

tial

−300 −200 −100 0

−10

010


Time

Pol

l diff

eren

tial

−300 −200 −100 0

−10

010


Time

Pol

l diff

eren

tial

−300 −200 −100 0−

100

10


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Factors that predict election outcomes

I �The Democrats are gonna get hammered.� � me, Sept 2009

I O�-year elections favor opposition party

I Poor economy

I Generic ballot predicts popular vote for Congress (after

adjustment)

I District-by-district analysis takes you from votes to seats


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Voters hate Republicans but are voting for them anyway

I From the latest polls:I Voters are split about Obama (he has about 45% support)I They dislike the DemocratsI They hate the RepublicansI . . . and . . .I They're planning to vote R

I What's going on??


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Voters hate Republicans but are voting for them anyway

I Move to partisan balance; divided government

I Di�erent electorates in midterm and general elections

I R shift from 46% to 52% of the vote

I . . . Now, on to the background


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The Book


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Polarization: The Red and the Blue


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Polarization: The Haves and Have-Nots


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The New Upscale Democratic Party?


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Red and Blue States

2004 election


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Rich States are More Democratic . . .

Average income within state

Vot

e sh

are

for

Geo

rge

Bus

h

AL AK

AZAR

CA

CO

CTDE

FL

GA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KYLA

MEMD

MA

MI MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NVNH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

ORPA

RI

SCSD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

$20,000 $30,000

30%

50%

70%

Republican vote by state in 2004


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. . . But Rich People are More Republican!

Vot

e sh

are

for

Bus

h

0 $100,000 $200,000

30%

50%

70%

Individual income

Bush vote in 2004 by income 2006 House exit polls

Income

Rep

ublic

an v

ote

shar

e

low middle high

30%

50%

70%

Northeast

Midwest

South

West


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David Brooks and Maryland

I �Like upscale areas everywhere, from

Silicon Valley to Chicago's North

Shore to suburban Connecticut,

Montgomery County supported

the Democratic ticket by a margin

of 63 percent to 34 percent.�

I �In Red America churches are

everywhere. In Blue America

Thai restaurants are everywhere.

In Red America they have QVC,

the Pro Bowlers Tour, and hunting.

In Blue America we have NPR,

Doris Kearns Goodwin, and socially

conscious investing.�

Median household income within county

Vot

e sh

are

for

Geo

rge

Bus

h

$20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000

0%25

%50

%75

%10

0%

Montgomery

Baltimore

Income and voting in Maryland counties


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Starbucks and Walmart

Wal−Marts per capita Starbucks per capita


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Counterexample: Texas

Median household income within county

Vot

e sh

are

for

Geo

rge

Bus

h

$20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000

0%25

%50

%75

%10

0%

Collin

Zavala

Austin

Income and voting in Texas counties


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The Key to the Answer: Context Matters

I How wealthy you are is associated with how you vote (and

think)

I But how much it does depends on where you live � context

matters

I In some states the rich are very di�erent from the poor but not

in other states

I Texas and Maryland


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Anna Karenina and the Paradox Resolved

Voter's income

Pro

babi

lity

of v

otin

g fo

r M

cCai

n

(poor) (rich)

25%

50%

75%

Conn.

(poor) (rich)

25%

50%

75%

Ohio

(poor) (rich)

25%

50%

75% Miss.

McCain vote by income in a poor, middle−income, and rich state


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What if Only X Voted?


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How Some Journalists See the Country

I �One of the Republican Party's major successes over the last

few decades has been to persuade many of the working poor

to vote for tax breaks for billionaires.� � Nicholas Kristof,

New York Times columnist

I �Who are the trustfunders? People with enough money not to

have to work for a living, or not to have to work very hard.

These people tend to be very liberal politically. . . . � �

Michael Barone, author of the Almanac of American Politics


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The New Working-Class Republicans?


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Whassup with Kansas?

Individual income

Vot

e fo

r B

ush

low mid high

40%

60%

80%

2000

2004

Kansas

Kansas


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Pauline Kael and Availability Bias

I �I can't believe Nixon won. I don't

know anybody who voted for him.�

� attributed to Pauline Kael,

movie critic for the New Yorker

I Availability bias: the tendency to

generalize based on nearby

information


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Michael Barone and Availability Bias

I �It evidently irritates many

liberals to point out that their

party gets heavy support from

supera�uent `people of fashion'

and does not run very well

among `the common people.'�

� Michael Barone

I Second-order availability bias:

generalizing from observed

correlations

I The people you know are

high-income and vote

Democratic. Therefore . . .

liberal

conservative

poorrich

Peopleyou know

The averageAmerican

People youdon't know ??


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Polarization is real

Ideological Position

(liberal) (conservative)

Entire U.S. Voters House

Senate


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ExplanationsOpiate of the Elites

30 Years Ago, Things Were Di�erent

1976 election

Average income within state

Vot

e sh

are

for

Ger

ald

For

d

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DEFL

GA

HI

ID

ILIN

IA

KS

KYLA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJNM

NYNC

NDOHOK OR

PA

RISC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VAWA

WV

WI

WY

$15,000 $20,00030

%50

%70

%

Republican vote by state in 1976


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Incomplete Explanations for the Change in State Vote

I Is it rich people who are changing?I No. We showed that in the beginning.

I Is it race?I Mostly no. Excluding blacks from the analysis diminishes the

e�ects we see only partly.

I Is it the South?I No. We see the e�ects in the South and outside of it.

I Is it inequality?I No. Interstate income inequality has changed little, and

intrastate income inequality is more tied to immigration trends.


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Our Explanation I

I The poor are similar in Red and Blue America, but the rich are

di�erent.

I We've looked at voting.

I Now look at attitudes on economic and social issues.


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Economic and Social Attitudes of Rich and PoorAverage ideologies of different groups of voters

Ave

rag

e s

core

on

so

cia

l is

su

es

lib

era

lm

ode

rate

con

se

rvative

Poor voters

Middle

Rich voters

Democratic States

Poor votersMiddle

Rich voters

Battleground States

Poor voters

Middle

Rich voters

Republican States

Average score on economic issues liberal moderate conservative


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Our Explanation II

I Voters haven't changed within states�and states haven'tchanged much either, but parties have.

I Parties are more polarized than they've ever been.I Democratic and Republican voters are (slightly) more

ideologically distinctI Positions by elites are more uniform than they've been in the

past. The end of Rockefeller Republicans and Blue DogDemocrats.

I Wealthy people in rich, blue states are con�icted in their party

choice; hence the �at slope. Wealthy people in poor, red states

are not con�icted in their party choice; hence the high slope.


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Culture Wars and Polarization

I �Sometimes I think this country

would be better o� if we could just

saw o� the Eastern Seaboard and

let it �oat out to sea.� � Barry

Goldwater

I �People, I just want to say, you

know, can we all get along?� �

Rodney King


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�Opiate of the Masses� vs. �Postmaterialism�

I �I don't know that atheists should be considered citizens, nor

should they be considered patriots. This is one nation under

God.� � George H. W. Bush

I �Very few of us . . . could name even �ve NASCAR drivers,

although stock-car races are the best-attended sporting events

in the country.� � David Brooks

I Two theories:I Opiate of the masses: Rich people vote their interests, poor

people vote �Gods, guns, and gays.�I Postmaterialism: Poor people vote based on economics, rich

people have the luxury to vote on social issues.


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�Opiate� No, �Postmaterialism� Yes

Pro

babi

lity

of v

otin

g fo

r B

ush

poor middle−income rich

40%

50%

60%

70% if you attend church more

than once/week

if you attend onceor twice/month

if you neverattend church

Bush vote in 2004 by income and religious attendance


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Similar Patterns in Red and Blue America

Republican States

Income

Pr(

Bus

h)

Low Middle High

IncomeLow Middle High

IncomeLow Middle High

0.25

0.50

0.75

never church

occasionalchurch

regular church

Battleground States

never church

occasionalchurch

regular church

Democratic States

never church

occasionalchurch

regular church


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Economic/Social Ideology and Income/Relig Attend, by State

With

in−

stat

e co

rrel

atio

nEconomic ideology and income

−0.

10.

00.

10.

2 AL

AZ

AR

CACOCT

DEFL

GA

ID ILINIAKSKY

LA

ME MDMA

MI MN

MS

MOMT

NE

NV NH

NM

NY

NCNDOH

OK

ORPARI

SCSDTN TXUT

VTVAWA

WVWIWY

State income

With

in−

stat

e co

rrel

atio

n

$25,000 $35,000

Social ideology and income

−0.

10.

00.

10.

2

AL

AZ

AR

CACO

CT

DEFL

GAID

IL

INIAKSKY

LA

MEMD

MA

MIMN

MS

MOMT NE

NVNH

NM

NY

NCND OHOK

ORPARI

SCSDTNTX

UT

VT VAWA

WV

WIWY

Economic ideology and religious attendance

ALAZ ARCACOCT

DEFLGA

IDIL INIA KSKYLA

ME

MDMA MI

MNMSMO

MTNE

NVNH NMNY NCNDOH OK

ORPARI

SCSDTNTXUT

VT

VA

WA WVWIWY

State religious attendance

2.5 3.0 3.5

Social ideology and religious attendance

AL

AZ

AR

CACOCT DEFL

GAID

IL INIA KSKYLA

MEMDMA MIMN

MS

MO

MT

NENVNH NMNY

NCNDOH OK

ORPARI

SCSDTNTXUT

VT

VAWA

WVWIWY


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Takeaway Points

I Polarization, stereotyping, and the red-blue divide

I Statistics is too important to be left to the statisticians!

I What's the matter with Connecticut?I If you want to understand the di�erences between states, study

the wealthy.I The culture war is real but is concentrated among

upper-income voters.

I It's easy to get confused: �media center� states don't look like

the rest of the country.


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End�Time for Your Questions


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Supplementary dataElection 2008: What Really Happened?

Putting It Together

Rich−state, poor−state gap in Republican voteamong poor, middle−income, and rich voters

Rep

ublic

an v

ote

in p

oor

stat

es, m

inus

Rep

ublic

an v

ote

in r

ich

stat

es

1952−1968 1972−1988 1992−2004

0%10

%20

%

High−

inco

me

vote

rs

Middle−income vo

ters

Low−income voters


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Race Explains Half the Pattern

Whites only: Rich−state, poor−state gap in Republican vote among poor, middle−income, and rich voters

Rep

ublic

an v

ote

in p

oor

stat

es, m

inus

Rep

ublic

an v

ote

in r

ich

stat

es

1952−1968 1972−1988 1992−2004

0%10

%20

%

High−

inco

me

white

vot

ers

Middle−

incom

e whit

e vote

rs

Low−income white voters


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Religion and State Income

Average State Income

Ave

rage

Sta

te R

elig

ious

Atte

ndan

ce

$25,000 $35,000

2.5

3.0

3.5

AL

AZ

AR

CA

COCT

DEFL

GA

ID

IL

INIA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MIMN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJNM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TXUT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY


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Inequality in the States

States with high and low income inequality


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Polarized Parties: Foreign Policy

2003 2004 2005 2006

0%25

%50

%75

%10

0%

Republicans

Democrats

Independents

Partisan disagreement over the Iraq warP

erce

ntag

e su

ppor

ting

the

war


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Polarized Parties: Foreign Policy

1951 1952

0%25

%50

%75

%10

0%

Republicans

Democrats

Support for Korean war

1966 1968 1970

Republicans

Democrats

Support for Vietnam war

Per

cent

age

supp

ortin

g th

e w

ar


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Polarized Parties: Domestic Policy


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Polarization in Red, Purple, and Blue States

Republicanstates Voters

House

Senate

Battlegroundstates

Voters

HouseSenate

Ideological Position

(liberal) (conservative)

Democraticstates

Voters

House

Senate


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Other Countries: Income and Voting

025

%

Australia

Hong Kong

Israel

Japan

South Korea

New Zealand

Taiwan

Asia and Oceania

025

%

Bulgaria

Czech

Hungary

PolandRomania

RussiaUkraine

BelgiumFrance

GermanyItalyNetherlands

PortugalSlovenia

Spain

Switzerland

Denmark

Finland

Iceland

Ireland

Norway

Sweden

United Kingdom

Europe

GDP per capita

0 20,000 40,000

025

%

Brazil

CanadaChileMexico

Peru

United States

North and South America

Con

serv

ativ

e vo

te s

hare

am

ong

rich,

min

us c

onse

rvat

ive

vote

sha

re a

mon

g po

or


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Other Countries: Income, Religion, and VotingUkraine Bulgaria Russia Romania Brazil

Poland Hungary Czech Mexico Slovenia

Portugal Korea New Zealand Israel Italy

Belgium Australia France Germany Netherlands

Britain Ireland Sweden Hong Kong Denmark

Iceland Switzerland Norway United States Japan

−25

%0

25%

−25

%0

25%

−25

%0

25%

−25

%0

25%

−25

%0

25%

Poor Rich

−25

%0

25%

Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich

Co

nse

rva

tive

vo

te,

com

pa

red

to

na

tion

al a

vera

ge


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Election 2008: What Really Happened?

I National election returns

I State-by-state election returns

I Race, age, income

I Pre-election polls

I Congressional elections


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Obama Did as Well as Expected

Forecasting elections from the economy

Carter vs. Reagan (1980)Bush, Sr. vs. Clinton (1992)Nixon vs. Kennedy (1960)Clinton vs. Dole (1996)Ford vs. Carter (1976)Bush, Jr. vs. Kerry (2004)Bush, Sr. vs. Dukakis (1988)Gore vs. Bush, Jr. (2000)Stevenson vs. Eisenhower (1952)Eisenhower vs. Stevenson (1956)Humphrey vs. Nixon (1968)Nixon vs. McGovern (1972)Reagan vs. Mondale (1984)Johnson vs. Goldwater (1964)

45% 50% 55% 60%

Incumbent party’s share of the popular voteIncome growth

more than 4%

3% to 4%

2% to 3%

1% to 2%

0% to 1%

negative


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The Polls Did Well


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National Partisan Swing


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Swings are More National Than Before


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Whites and Minorities


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Young and Old


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Rich and Poor


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Rich and Poor, by State


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Religious and Secular


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Comparing votes for President and Congress


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Further Questions?


Documents

Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State - …gelman/presentations/...Anna Karenina and the Paradox Resolved Voter's income Probability of voting for McCain (poor) (rich) 25%