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Recent Trends in Sustainable Energy
Development in the United States
Marilyn A. Brown School of Public Policy
Georgia Institute of Technology
National Research Council's Japan-U.S. Workshop on Sustainable Energy Futures
Washington, DC
June 26, 2012
Global Trends: Where the Action Is
• U.S. energy demand is growing
much more slowly than the rest
of the world
• Today we consume almost 25%
of the world’s energy
production; in 2100 the U.S. will
consume less than 10%
U.S.
World
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
EJ
/yr
oil w/o ccs natural gas w/o ccscoal w/o ccs biomass w/o ccsnuclear hydrowind solargeothermal
oil
gas
coal
bio
nuc
0
100
200
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
EJ
/yr
Source: Brown and Sovacool. 2011. Climate Change and Global Energy Security (MIT Press) 2
Per Capita Energy Use and GDP
(1980-2010)
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) 3
Japan
U.S.
The U.S.: Green Tech – Clean Tech
Economy is Progressing, But Slowly
Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel: 1980-2035 (quadrillion Btu per year)
Projected Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation (Trillion kWh per year)
4
U.S. Energy & Climate Goals
• By 2020, reduce energy-related GHG emissions by 17% (83% by 2050) • By 2035, 80% of America’s electricity will come from clean energy sources • By 2020, 20% improvement in the energy efficiency of commercial buildings
relative to 2010 • By 2030, reduce home energy use by 30-50% (compared to 2009 energy
codes for new homes & pre-retrofit for existing homes) • By 2022, improve the energy intensity of U.S. manufacturers by 25% • By 2015, put 1 million electric vehicles on the road • By 2025, require passenger cars and light-duty trucks to average 54.5 miles-
per-gallon • Decrease the price of electricity from solar power 75% by 2020, making it
cost competitive with coal
•How Can these Goals be Achieved?
5
18 Technology Assessments mapped
to Six Strategies
Source: U.S. Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review
•Stationary and transport power are increasingly linked by energy, climate, health, and air quality issues and goals
6
Building and Industrial Efficiency: • Data Collection and usage • Integrated systems analyses • Next-gen processes and products
Stationary Power:
Technology Headroom
Grid Modernization: • Communication and data • Management and control • Energy storage
Clean Electricity: • Drive down costs • Coupling between energy and water use • Increase modularity and scalability • Infrastructure compatibility
Source: U.S. Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review 7
Energy Efficiency: The Largest Energy
Resource, But More is Needed
Source: Steven Nadel, ACEEE, 2011.
Source: AEO2012 Early Release Overview, EIA.
Energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product and emissions per dollar of gross domestic product, 1980-2035 (index, 2005=1)
8
Cost of Conserved Energy:
Residential and Commercial Electricity
Source: National Academy of Sciences. 2009. Real Prospects for Energy Efficiency in the United States (Washington, DC: National Academies Press)
•Cost of Conserved Energy= the additional cost that must be invested in order to implement a long-term energy-saving strategy or feature
9
Light Source Efficiency Trends
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lum
ens/
watt
Incandescent
CFL
LED Cree R&D Best
2006 XLamp® LED
Linear Fluorescent
HID
Current XLamp® LED
• Better LED performance increases energy savings and reduces cost
Source: Cree. December 1, 2009. “LED Lighting Overview” 10
Systems Integration Offers Future Savings
(e.g., Climate Master Launches Trilogy™)
Separate Units: Water Heating and Heating/Cooling
Integrated Unit: Water Heating and Heating/Cooling
• ~ 65% energy savings vs. minimum efficiency (SEER 13) equipment
• ~ 33% savings vs. state-of-the-art two-stage GHP with the super heater
11
Changes in Energy Intensity in
Six Key US Industries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Ene
rgy
Inte
nsi
ty (
Tho
usa
nd
Btu
/Co
nst
ant
Mill
20
00
$)
Paper Mfg.
Petroleum and Coal Prod.
Chemical Mfg.
Plastic and Rubber Prod.
Nonmetallic Mineral Mfg.
Primary Metal Prod.
Source: Brown, M. A., Cortes, R., & Cox, M. (2010). Reinventing Industrial Energy Use in a Resource-Constrained World in Fereidoon Sioshansi (ed.) Smart Living in the Coming Age of Scarcity. Maryland Heights, MO: Elsevier Press: Chapter 8. 12
Combined Heat and Power can
improve System Efficiencies by 30%
Traditional System
CHP System
CHP
Power Plant
Boiler
ELECTRICITY
HEAT
45- 49%
75- 80%
Efficiency Efficiency
Source: Brown, M. A., Jackson, R., Cox, M., Cortes, R., Deitchman, B., & Lapsa, M. V. (2011). Making Industry Part of the Climate Solution: Policy Options to Promote Energy Efficiency. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2010/78, May.
13
Lots of Opportunities for CHP in Industry:
Proposed CHP Plant in Alloy, WV
14
• Waste heat from silicon manufacturing could generate 60 MW of electricity
Social Benefit-Cost Ratios of Two
CHP Policy Options
Source: Brown, M. A., Baer, P., Cox, M., and Kim, Y. Working Paper. “Evaluating the Risks of Alternative Energy Policies: A Case Study of Industrial Energy Efficiency” Retrieved from http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers/wp68.pdf
15
12.7 13.3
7.3 7.4
5.8
8.1 10.5
10.7
18.2
9.9
6.9
30.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Soci
al B
en
efit
-Co
st R
atio
Principal Policy, 3% Discount Rate
Principal Policy, 7% Discount Rate
Alternative Policy Design, 3% Discount Rate
Alternative Policy Design, 7% Discount Rate
Natural Gas Prices 2 Std Dev Higher
Natural Gas Prices 2 Std Dev Lower
Output
Based
Emissions
Standards
Investment
Tax Credit
for CHP
Nano-info-bio Technologies could
Make Industry much Leaner
Significant improvements are anticipated in:
• Energy-efficient distillation through supercomputing • Novel energy-efficient separations • Super-durable materials for aggressive environments • Molecular-level control of catalytic materials • Self-optimizing sensor systems • Recovery and use of waste heat
Source: Brown, Marilyn. 2005. “Nano-Bio-Info Pathways to Extreme Efficiency,” AAAS Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, February 21, 2005 16
Additions to U.S. Electricity
Generation Capacity, 1985-2035
Source: Annual Energy Outlook, EIA.
The U.S. is predicted to add less than 10 GW of generating capacity(~1% of total) per year over the next 25 years, most of which will be natural gas
17
Location of Projected New Nuclear
Power Reactors
18 Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Retrieved from http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/col/new-reactor-map.html
Nuclear Power Reactors Under Construction:
Southern Company Burke County, GA (Vogtle 3, 4) AP1000
South Carolina Electric & Gas Jenkinsville, SC (Summer 2, 3) AP1000
Tennessee Valley Authority Rhea County, TN (Watts Bar 2)* Gen II PWR
U.S. Electricity Production Costs
1995-2011, In 2011 cents per kilowatt-hour
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite, Updated: 5/12
Production Costs = Operations and Maintenance Costs + Fuel Costs
19
Water Consumption for Various
Power Generation Technologies
Source: NREL. 2011. A Review of Operational Water Consumption and Withdrawal Factors for Electricity Generating Technologies.
CSP = Concentrating Solar Power, CCS = Carbon Capture and Storage, PV = Solar Photovoltaic
20
21
“Why should I worry when the grid is
better than 99% reliable?”
2009 U.S. electricity consumption 3,741 Billion kW-h (EIA)
Estimated annual outage costs $ 30 Billion - $ 130 Billion (LBNL report to OE, 2004)
2003 Northeast Blackout
•508 generators tripped
•Cleveland Toronto NYC
• 7 minutes Report on 2003 North American Blackout,
Grid congestion
North American Electric Reliability Council
1996 1998 2000 2002
200
600
1000
1400
1800 Requests for relief from power exchanges
Re
qu
ests
Requests for relieffrom power exchanges
Source: Modified from Williams Parks. 2011. “Plugging America into Clean Energy” Presentation at the National Academy of Sciences, January 31, 2012.
Smart Grid: A Vision for the Future
Source: Brown, M.A., Shan, Z. 2012. “The Emergence of Policies to Promote Sustainable Smart Grids, ” Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology (Robert A. Meyers, ed.), Springer Science+Business media, LLC. 22
50%
10%
15% 5%
20%
2000 MW ± 500 kV
HVDC Converter
Station $280 M
Advanced HVDC
Converter Station $100 M
Technologies:
High Voltage DC Converter Stations
Converter stations are the most expensive part of HVDC and limits the cost-effectiveness of systems to > 300-500 miles
Source: Cross Sound Cable
Power Electronics
Controls; Thermal
Management
Power Converter
DC Breakers Cable Analysis
(insulators; dielectrics)
System / Applications
Estimated contribution towards goals
23
Technologies:
Smart Meters & Displays
• Meter that allows frequent data collection
• Enables alternative pricing
• Can interface with in-home or in-office
displays of online consumption information
• NOT just an automatic meter reader
ZigBee Rate saver
Google Power Meter
Energy Orbs that signal expensive & inexpensive times to use energy
24
Vehicle Efficiency: • Increase internal combustion engine efficiency • Light weighting and aerodynamics
Transport Power:
Technology Headroom
Electrification: • Batteries • Electric motors and power electronics
Alternative hydrocarbon Fuels (for HDVs): • Biofuels • Alternative fossil fuels (only if less carbon than
gasoline/diesel
25 Source: U.S. Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review
Impact of plug-in electric range and
charging infrastructure
• The benefit of ubiquitous charging becomes smaller as the all-electric range increases; for most applications, home charging is sufficient. Source: forthcoming EPRI report, “Understanding the Effects and Infrastructure Needs of Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV) Charging”
Source: U.S. Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review
•Utility factor is the fraction of vehicle miles that could be driven on electric power without recharging
26
27
U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 1990-2035
• Shale gas is expected to grow in the next several decades, reducing net imports and challenging the development of renewables and energy efficiency
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2011, EIA.
Manufacturing the Next Generation of
Lean and Green Technologies
• Product line choices are important
– A new generation of fuel cells and batteries for motor vehicles
– Biorefinery innovations for a next generation of biofuels
– New plastics that double as integrated photovoltaic systems
• Corporate sustainability
– Industry is adopting a much broader view of its energy and environmental responsibilities
Source: Delamaide, Darrell. 2011. “Green Trade Wars Heat Up, energybiz, 8(2) pp. 12-14
28
Input/Output Coefficients Confirm the Labor
Intensity of Energy Efficiency Investments
Source: Deitchman, B., Brown, M., & Baer, P. (2011). Green Jobs from Industrial Energy Efficiency. Energy Productivity in Industry: Partners and Opportunities, 2011 American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Industry. Washington, DC: ACEEE.
$1.09 $1.08 $0.98
$1.10
16.45
5.63
8.43
13.86
86% 94%
72% 75%
Construction and EE Equipment
Electricity Natural Gas All Others
GRP Coefficients Jobs Coefficients Regional Purchase Coefficients
Over 400 U.S. Manufacturing Plants
Serve the Wind Industry Today
Source: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Annual Market Report, 2009 Manufacturing data updated through November 2010, includes wind-related facilities 30
Recommended Policy Directions to
Promote U.S. Energy Sustainability
• A policy framework is needed that attracts diverse funding sources
• Policies could help motivate businesses to focus more of their resources on green and lean energy systems – preserving jobs in existing industries
• Advancing product innovation can enable next-generation green and clean technologies – creating new jobs in new industries
• Policy making needs to take into account societal cost s & benefits and consumer behavior 31
FOR MORE INFORMATION
Dr. Marilyn A. Brown, Professor Georgia Institute of Technology School of Public Policy DM Smith Building 685 Cherry Street, Room 312 Atlanta, GA 30332-0345 Email: [email protected] Phone: 404-385-0303 Fax: 404-385-0504