Recent migration from the A8 countries and its impact on

sending economies- case of Poland

Paweł KaczmarczykCentre of Migration Research

University of Warsaw

EURES IS Mobility Seminar, KeflavíkMay, 30th 2008

Outline of the presentation

Past and recent trends in migration from the A8 countries – an overview

What we do know and we do not know about recent mobility of Central Europeans? – case of Poland

Impact of migration on sending countries – demographic and labour market related issues

Conclusions

Scale and trends in migration from CEE

Migration in the pre-transition period (1):

Emigration – rather exceptional but sizeable majority of long-term population movements directed to the West (incl. politically motivated and ethnically motivated movements)

Labour movements – limited, with a few exceptions (ex-Yugoslavia, project-tied employment)

Circular movements of ‘false tourists’

Scale and trends in migration from CEE

Migration in the transition period: Continuation of pre-transition trends

Emigration to the West, incl. the USA (ethnically or politically motivated, family reunion) – on decline since mid 1990s

Temporary employment in Western Europe - incomplete migration – (Bulgaria, Poland, Romania) more or less irregular, short term or circular in nature increase

New trends in migratory behaviour Temporary employment in Western Europe – mainly based on

bilateral agreements Movements between successor states of the ex-USSR Transit migration Inflow - settlement immigration, immigration of migrant workers,

movements of people in need of protection

Features of migration from the CEE countries in the transition period

The outflow much lower and less diversified than in the previous decades

The number of net emigration countries decreased shift to net immigration countries (Hungary, Czech Rep.)

Temporary flows as dominant migration type

Outflow did not matter neither for sending nor for receiving countries scale of irregular migration (?), but: in all regularisation programmes pursued in EU so far around 800,000 irregular migrants from CEE were identified

Poland as the only country sending considerable quantities of people abroad

EU8 citizens residing in EU15 countries, 2000

EU8 citizens residing in UE15 countries:-As percentage of total immigrant population of destination countries (in red) - Actual numbers in thousand and per thousand of total population of their native country (in blue)

Source: Okólski 2007

Post EU accesion movements

Recent accession rounds:

May 2004: Czech Rep., Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia

January 2007: Bulgaria and Romania

But:

Most of the UE countries introduced transitory arrangements with regard to access to the labour market and social security systems:

Free access to labour market: Ireland, Sweden, United Kingdom (limited access to the welfare system)

Limited access to labour market in case of other countries (relaxed in 2006 and 2007)

No access until 2011 announced: Austria and Germany (free access for service providers)

Post-accession flows – UK: Number of visits to the UK by the nationals of the EU8 countries, 2003-2007 (in thous.)

Source: IPS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q1

20

03

Q2

20

03

Q3

20

03

Q4

20

03

Q1

20

04

Q2

20

04

Q3

20

04

Q4

20

04

Q1

20

05

Q2

20

05

Q3

20

05

Q4

20

05

Q1

20

06

Q2

20

06

Q3

20

06

Q4

20

06

Q1

20

07

Baltic states

0

100

200

300

400

500

600Poland

Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland

Polish citizens:

- 2004: 528

- 2005: 1,041

- 2006: 1,326

- 2007: 1,007*

* First three quarters

Applicants with the Worker Registration Scheme by major nationalities, March 2004 – June 2007, by quarters

Source: Home Office

23465

28070

23920 23205

32850

38310

3294531920

38125

4546046975

3566033905

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

II 2004 III 2004 IV 2004 I 2005 II 2005 III 2005 IV 2005 I 2006 II 2006 III 2006 IV 2006 I 2007 II 2007

Czech Rep. Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia

Applicants with the Worker Registration Scheme by major nationalities, March 2004 – May 2007, by quarters

Source: WRS

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Czech Rep Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia

II 2004 III 2004 IV 2004 I 2005 II 2005 III 2005 IV 2005 I 2006 II 2006 III 2006 IV 2006 I 2007

Immigrants allocated a National Insurance number in the UK, 2002-2007 (in thous.), top ten countries

Source: Home Office

2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007

India 25,0 India 31,3 Poland 62,6 Poland 171,4 Poland 222,8

Australia 18,9 South Africa

18,4 India 32,7 India 46,0 India 49,3

South Africa

18,6 Australia 17,1 Pakistan 20,3 Lithuania 30,5 Slovakia 28,8

Pakistan 16,8 Pakistan 16,8 South Africa

19,3 Slovakia 26,4 Pakistan 25,3

France 13,8 Portugal 14,0 Australia 16,6 South Africa

24,0 Australia 24,4

Philippines 11,8 China 13,3 Lithuania 15,6 Australia 23,8 Lithuania 24,1

Spain 11,7 France 13,1 France 13,3 Pakistan 22,3 France 20,2

Zimbabwe 10,3 Spain 11,9 China 12,6 France 17,2 South Africa

16,9

Iraq 10,1 Poland 11,2 Portugal 12,2 Latvia 14,2 Germany 15,2

Portugal 9,8 Philippines 10,7 Slovakia 10,5 Germany 13,3 China 13,2

Total 349,3 Total 370,8 Total 439,8 Total 662,4 Total 713,0

Polish migrants in the UK, according to LFS (1945-2006)

Source: Okólski 2007

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Female

Male

Polish residents in the UK:

- Mid 2006: 209 thousand

- End of 2006: 260 thousand

- Mid 2007: 406 thousand

Inflow of EU8 labour to Ireland – Personal Public Service Numbers issued (in thousand)

Source: WB 2006

Poland

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

No of residence permits issued in Sweden, selected EU8 countries, 2003-2005

Source: WB 2006

Post accession flows

Three types of CEE countries with regard to international mobility:

Scale (and dynamics) of migration Poland

High intensity of migration Baltic countries

High (expected) dynamics of migration Romania

Migrant workers from EU8 in Ireland, Sweden and the United Kingdom as per cent of working age population of the countries of origin, 2004-2005

Source: World Bank 2006

Recent migration from Poland: what we do and what we do not know? Scale and dynamics of migration

Data on registered migration (CSO Population Register): 353,000 persons who deregistered themselves and moved abroad between 1990 and 2005

Census data:

The 1995 Microcensus: about 900,000 permanent residents of Poland staying temporarily abroad (2% of the total population)

The 2002 National Census: 786,100 Polish citizens, counted as members of households in Poland, staying abroad for longer than 2 months (1.8% of the population).

CSO estimate (end of 2006): 1,950 thous. persons staying temporarily abroad (3.3% of the total population); post-accession net outflow – 1,120 thous.

LFS: in 2004 on average 250 thousand persons staying abroad for longer than 2 months, 3rd quarter of 2007 – 522 thousand

The total number of Polish citizens staying abroad for longer than 2 months, by major destination countries, in thousand

Total / destination 2002 (May) 2004* 2006* Total 786 1000 1950 European Union 451 750 1550 Austria 11 15 34 Belgium 14 13 28 France 21 30 49 Germany 294 385 450 Ireland 2 15 120 Italy 39 59 85 Netherlands 10 23 55 Spain 14 26 44 Sweden 6 11 25 United Kingdom 24 150 580

* end of the year

Source: CSO 2007.

Recent migration from Poland: what we do and what we do not know?

Features of recent migration from Poland

Predominance of labour migration

Predominance of short-term migration (?)

Dynamics of migration

Distribution of major destination countries

Migration according to LFS data:Polish migrants by length of their stay abroad, 1994-2007 (in thous.)

Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008

Recent migration from Poland - dynamics

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

III.

94

II.9

5

I.9

6

IV.9

6

III.

97

II.9

8

I.9

9

IV.9

9

III.

00

II.0

1

I.0

2

IV.0

2

III.

03

II.0

4

I.0

5

IV.0

5

III.

06

II.0

7

Net changes in the stock of temporary migrants (in thous.)

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Stock of temporary thousand (in thous.)

1st quarter 2nd quarter

3rd quarter 4th quarter

Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008

Recent migration from Poland – dynamics and seasonal features

Ireland: PPS numbers Norway: work permits

Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

2003

-01

-01

2003

-04

-01

2003

-07

-01

2003

-10

-01

2004

-01

-01

2004

-04

-01

2004

-07

-01

2004

-10

-01

2005

-01

-01

2005

-04

-01

2005

-07

-01

2005

-10

-01

2006

-01

-01

2006

-04

-01

2006

-07

-01

2006

-10

-01

2007

-01

-01

2007

-04

-01

2007

-07

-01

all permits permits for seasonal workers

Main destination countries for migrants from Poland before and after accession, in per cent

Source: SOPEMI

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

UK

Ge

rma

ny

Ire

lan

d

Ita

ly

US

A

Sp

ain

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Fra

nce

Sw

ed

en

No

rwa

y

Be

lgiu

m

Gre

ece

Au

str

ia

oth

er

EU

co

un

trie

s

oth

er

Eu

rop

ea

n c

ou

ntr

ies

oth

er

cu

ntr

ies

before accession post accession

Migration according to LFS data:Polish migrants by country of destination, 2000-2007, 2nd quarter (in thous.)

Source: SOPEMI

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

France Germany Ireland

United Kingdom United States Italy and Spain

Distribution of pre-accession and post-accession migrants by level of education vis-à-vis general population, in per cent

Source: BAEL (CMR files)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

gene

ral p

opul

atio

nar

ound

the

acce

ssio

n da

te

pre-

acce

ssio

nm

igra

nts

post

-acc

essi

onm

igra

nts

gene

ral p

opul

atio

nar

ound

the

acce

ssio

n da

te

pre-

acce

ssio

nm

igra

nts

post

-acc

essi

onm

igra

nts

Tertiary, academic Post-secondary Secondary technical

Secondary comprehensive Vocational Lower

All At age 25-29

Selectivity of recent mobility of Poles – educational attainment

Migrant selectivity indexes (SI) for tertiary education

Selectivity of recent mobility of Poles – educational attainment

Migrant selectivity indexes (SI) for vocational education

Demographic effects

Percentage net loss of population aged 15 or more due to temporary outflow in the post-accession period, by sex and the level of education (as of January 1st, 2007)

Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008

MM KM

Demographic effects

Percentage net loss of population aged 15 or more due to temporary outflow in the post-accession period, by region and type of locality (as of January 1st, 2007)

Age 20-24 (average: 8.8) Age 25-29 (average: 9.3)

top bottom top bottom

% loss

locality type and region % loss region %loss

region % loss region

21.118.117.317.014.714.614.313.813.813.4

village, Podkarpackietown -100, Lubuskie

town -100, Malopolskietown 100+, Lubuskie

village, Podlaskievillage, Swietokrzyskie

village, Dolnoslaskietown -100, Dolnoslaskie

village, Lubelskietown 100+, Podlaskie

2.22.72.93.33.43.43.43.53.74.5

village, Wielkopolskievillage, Opolskie

town -100, Warminsko-Mazurskie

town -100, Pomorskievillage, Pomorskie

town 100+, Wielkopolskietown -100, Wielkopolskie

town 100+, Zachodnipomorskietown 100+, Małopolskie

town 100+, Pomorskie

24.421.520.018.516.716.115.413.912.612.4

town 100+, Warminsko-Mtown 100+, Podlaskie

village, Swietokrzyskievillage, Podkarpackie

town -100, Wielkopolskietown -100, Podlaskie

town -100, Malopolskietown -100, Podkarpackie

town -100, Zachodniopomorskie

town 100+, Zachodniopomorskie

3.33.83.84.34.45.05.05.16.16.1

town -100, Slaskietown 100+, Opolskietown -100, Opolskie

town 100+, Malopolskietown 100+, Mazowieckie

town 100+, Wielkopolskie

village, Wielkopolskaietown -100, Lubuskie

village, Lubuskietown -100, Lodzkie

Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008

Radical relief to labour market – a decline in unemployment

Unemployment rate (annual) in 2006 compared to 2004

EU15 decline from 8.0% to 7.4%

decline in EU8 countries (exception – Hungary):

Lithuania by 5.8 points (to 5.6%) Poland by 5.2 points (to 13.8%) Slovakia by 4.8 points (to 13.4%) Estonia by 3.8 points (to 5.9%) Latvia by 3.6 points (to 6.8%) Czech R. by 1.2 points (to 7.1%) Slovenia by 0.3 points (to 6.0%)

Migrants from Poland and unemployment rate according to LFS, 1994-2007

Source: GUS, Kepinska 2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1994

/Q1

1994

/Q3

1995

/Q1

1995

/Q3

1996

/Q1

1996

/Q3

1997

/Q1

1997

/Q3

1998

/Q1

1998

/Q3

1999

/Q1

1999

/Q3

2000

/Q1

2000

/Q3

2001

/Q1

2001

/Q3

2002

/Q1

2002

/Q3

2003

/Q1

2003

/Q3

2004

/Q1

2004

/Q3

2005

/Q1

2005

/Q3

2006

/Q1

2006

/Q3

2007

/Q1

Un

emp

loym

ent r

ate

(in

%)

Mig

ran

ts (i

n th

ousa

nd)

Migrants Unemployment rate

Source: WB 2007

Labour shortages: effect of the outflow?

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland

I Q 2005 I Q 2006 I Q 2007

Vacancy rates, 2005-2007

Source: WB 2006

Vacancy rates by sector, 2004-2007 (in per cent)

0

1

2

3

4

5

1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007

Czech Republic Latvia Lithuania Poland

Manufacturing

Construction

Trade

Migration effect on labour market in Poland – labour shortages (by sector)

Source: WB 2006

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

4Q 2005 1Q 2006 2Q 2006 3Q 2006 4Q 2006 1Q 2007 2Q 2007

Manufacturing Construction Trade Transport Other

But: very good economic climate – creation of jobs

Impact of migration on the Polish labour market, 2000-2006

Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008

12 000

12 500

13 000

13 500

14 000

14 500

15 000

15 500

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2000

/Q1

2000

/Q3

2001

/Q1

2001

/Q3

2002

/Q1

2002

/Q3

2003

/Q1

2003

/Q3

2004

/Q1

2004

/Q3

2005

/Q1

2005

/Q3

2006

/Q1

2006

/Q3

2007

/Q1

Empl

oyed

and

peo

ple

out o

f lab

our f

orce

Une

mpl

oyed

and

mig

rant

s

Migrants Unemployed Employed Out of labour force

Situation on the Polish labour market prior to the first migration (no. of cases)

Source: CMR ethnosurvey 2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

employed without job but actively seeking without job and not seeking

continues education at public school continues education at private school takes care over the household

Conclusions

Assessment of recent migratory processes in A8 countries – data limitations and its consequences?

Impacts of migration on sending countries: Importance of the scale of recent ouflow Importance of the selectivity of recent migration: stronger

propensity to move was observed among people originating from economically backward regions, characterised by very limited employment opportunities, a high proportion of the population living in medium-sized or small towns and in villages, and a relatively large semi-subsistence sector brain overflow

Labour migration – a chance or a threat for the Polish labour market? (structural changes possible, new model of professional career, internal mobility, entrepreneurship)

Tentative conclusion - ‘labour market pre-emption’, ‘crowding-out’ hypothesis

Return migration Transition into net immigration area?