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Recent Developments in the Community Emissions Model CONCEPT. 5 th Annual CMAS Model User Conference Tuesday October 17, 2006 Mark Janssen LADCO. Background. CONsolidated Community Emissions Processing Tool - CONCEPT. PostgreSQL, Perl, PostGIS. Some fortran for M6, Nonroad, CMAQ - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Recent Developments in the Community
Emissions Model CONCEPT
5th Annual CMAS Model User Conference
Tuesday October 17, 2006Mark Janssen
LADCO
Background
• CONsolidated Community Emissions Processing Tool - CONCEPT.
• PostgreSQL, Perl, PostGIS. Some fortran for M6, Nonroad, CMAQ
• Build with a community in mind: easy to read/modify and customize QA.
• Now operational and will be part of LADCO/MWRPO SIP.
Models in CONCEPTAnd what makes them different
• Industrial Point- advanced temporal
• Area- advanced temporal
• Nonroad- integrated NONROAD, day specific meteorology
• Biogenics – BEIS2/BEIS3/MEGAN
• NH3- Processed based model (NAS recommendation)
• Onroad- Complex temporal, Link Based
If you want a modeling system that needs extensive and flexible QA
and is foundation community model
Onroad Motor Vehicle• Link based onroad model with embeded version
of mobile6. • T3 – Conversion tool reads many travel demand
models makes them usable by CONCEPT• Handle very complex temporal(month, day,
hour, ) by road and vehicle type for VMT, Speed, Mix.
• Adjust speed based on volume after temporalization
• Flexible speed, temperature bins for accelerated M6 Processing
• Toxics being added by USEPA
LADCO 2002 Networks Data Processed State Network TDM # Links
Illinois CATS - Chicago Area EMME2 33,774
Illinois ILDOT Statewide Generated from Observed 303,297
Indiana MPO - Indianapolis TransCAD 7,599
Indiana NIRPC - Northwest Indiana EMME2 9,023
Indiana INDOT Statewide TransCAD 31,181
Michigan SEMCOG - Detroit Area TransCAD 14,985
Michigan MIDOT Statewide TransCAD 9,227
Minnesota MMC - Minneapolis St. Paul Area TP+ 20,898
Missouri EWGCOG – St. Louis Area CUBE - TP+/Voyager 40,394
Minnesota MNDOT Statewide Generated from Observed 4,402
Ohio Nine Urban Areas CUBE-TRANPLAN 3,723 to 29,796
Ohio OHDOT Statewide TransCAD 50,644
Wisconsin SEWRPC - Milwaukee Area TRANPLAN 17,054
Wisconsin WIDOT Statewide TP+/VIPER 143,327
Total Links 801,467
Example of Complex TemporalMichigan Urban Interstate Hourly Profiles, Sunday through Saturday
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1 5 9 13 17 21 1 5 9 13 17 21 1 5 9 13 17 21 1 5 9 13 17 21 1 5 9 13 17 21 1 5 9 13 17 21 1 5 9 13 17 21
Hour
Fra
cti
on
of
To
tal T
raff
ic
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Example Vehicle Mix Temporal Profile
Michigan Urban Interstate Hourly VMT Mix Fractions, Sunday through Saturday
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0.1
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1 5 9 13 17 21 1 5 9 13 17 21 1 5 9 13 17 21 1 5 9 13 17 21 1 5 9 13 17 21 1 5 9 13 17 21 1 5 9 13 17 21
HDDV HDGV LDDT LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDGV MC
LADCO NetworksAll of region 5
EGU Temporal based on CEM• Gold Standard in Emissions, Direct
measurement
• Use the Hourly CEM Data to derive more represenative EGU inventories.
• Automated tool other users can use not a one-off analysis. Create complex NIF3.0
• Need profiles because actual hourly not usable in future years.
EGU Temporal based on CEMContinued…
• Build hourly weekday, Saturday, Sunday for each month.
• Why Not use: Large Data, What is Typical, Matching CEM to the NEI.
• CEM Analysis tool will ship with CONCEPT v.66
• Use CONCEPT’s temporal processor that can use the complex temporal NIF allows.
Ratio of July weekday EGU NOx with and without CEM based temporal allocation
July 12, 2002 hourly NOx for Georgia EGUs
July 12, 2002 hourly NOx for Illinois EGUs
Significant weekday/weekend variation is apparent with CEM based temporal allocation
Species BIOME MEGANALD2 9,720 11,310CG3 0 52,995CO 0 16,524ETOH 0 3,880FORM 0 991ISOP 104,655 75,294MEOH 0 14,017NOX 3,101 351NR 1,584 2,221OLE 6,409 3,150PAR 46,372 17,346SQT 0 7,259TOL 0 208TRP 5,670 28,431
Biogenic Emissions: MEGAN
• July 3, 2002 episode day
• Total emissions (TPD) from: – EMS/BIOME (BEIS3)
and– CONCEPT/MEGAN
models
• Less Isoprene using MEGAN model
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
140000000
160000000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
BIOME MEGAN
Isoprene:Difference plot of BIOME(BEIS3) – MEGAN
Hourly isoprene emissions (right)
Species BIOME MEGANALD2 9,720 11,310CG3 1,846 52,995CO 0 16,524ETOH 0 3,880FORM 0 991ISOP 104,655 75,294MEOH 0 14,017NOX 3,101 351NR 1,584 2,221OLE 6,409 3,150PAR 46,372 17,346SQT 5,332 7,259TOL 0 208TRP 3,961 28,431
Common Hybrid Approach
CAMx SOA pre-cursor species: CG3, SQT, and TRP
The application of a BEIS post-processor to “estimate” SOA pre-cursor species are shown in the table on the right in bold
Much higher PM SOA pre-cursor emissions using MEGAN
Agricultural Ammonia
• Processed based NH3 model based on recommendations from National Academy of Science.
• Model runs every farm and requires complex input data like N content of feed, barn color.
What We are Trying to Model?
Actual Farm Data
Animal Allocation Processor
(AAP)
Default Data Tables
Combined Real and Synthetic Farms by Grid Cell
Farm Emissions Model(FEM)
Farm Emissions Model Output
EPA State Animal Populations
EPA County Animal Population Distributions
EPA State-Level MMT Distributions
County-Level Fertilizer Data
Fertilizer Data by Grid Cell
Customized MMT Data
Ammonia Emission Rate from Swine Housing (two days in February)
NH3-Next Steps
• Poultry Housing Model science not complete
• May years of validation work because there are limited field measurements.
• Model too slow to be operational( months to run 7 days nationally.
• Speed up the model. C, perl, fortran• PC single facility version so people doing
validation studies can test tool.
Performance Problems
• We have a model that works, but is slow• Link based networks, biogenics, nh3 model. • Projects underway to improve them. • Example is CAMX/CMAQ writer that used to
take 12 hours, now runs in 67 seconds. • Opinion: Better to have a transparent model that
is slow than a fast black box. Can fix speed problems where needed.
• If speed was a primary concern we would all be running CAMX not CMAQ.
Thanks to Community!
• Environ (Pollack, Haasbeek, Shepard, et al) Onroad Networks
• Alpine Geophysics(Wilkinson) MEGAN • NCAR(Alex Guenther) MEGAN• LADCO(Baker) - MEGAN • MI-DEQ(Edick) – CEM/EGU• UC-Davis(Zhang, et al) NH3 Model• UC- Riverside(Wang, et al) NH3 Model • Users who make sure the model works