Recent Achievements and Future Goals

Jack Baker, Ph.D.Research Scientist IIIResearch Scientist IIIBureau of Business and Economic Researchkali@unm.edu(505) 277-2212

1. New Mexico Population Trends: Undercount, Underestimation, and Recent Population DynamicsDynamics

2. Program Scope,2008 Achievements, and Upcoming Data ReleasesMethodological Research and Database3. Methodological Research and Database Development Update

4. Future Program Goals: Census 2010

New Mexico Population Trends: Undercount, p ,Underestimation, and Recent Population

Dynamics

County Official Census 2000 Population

Adjusted Census 2000 Population Undercount % Undercount BBER 2007 Census 2007 Difference % Difference

Census 2000 Undercount and 2007 Estimates Differences

p p

Bernalillo 556,678 563,990 7,312 1.31 644,023 629,292 ‐14,731 ‐2.29%Dona Ana 174,682 178,877 4,195 2.40 205,247 198,791 ‐6,456 ‐3.15%San Juan 113,801 117,182 3,381 2.97 128,884 122,427 ‐6,457 ‐5.01%McKinley 74,798 77,839 3,041 4.07 79,905 70,059 ‐9,846 ‐12.32%Santa Fe 129,292 132,036 2,744 2.12 146,295 142,955 ‐3,340 ‐2.28%Sandoval 89,908 91,349 1,441 1.60 123,694 117,866 ‐5,828 ‐4.71%Otero 62,298 63,633 1,335 2.14 66,906 63,129 ‐3,777 ‐5.65%Valencia 66,152 67,368 1,216 1.84 75,807 71,364 ‐4,443 ‐5.86%Lea 55,511 56,572 1,061 1.91 58,485 58,043 ‐442 ‐0.76%Chaves 61,382 62,439 1,057 1.72 63,480 62,595 ‐885 ‐1.39%Curry 45,044 45,968 924 2.05 47,261 45,328 ‐1,933 ‐4.09%Rio Arriba 41,190 42,088 898 2.18 43,919 40,827 ‐3,092 ‐7.04%Eddy 51,658 52,540 882 1.71 52,676 51,002 ‐1,674 ‐3.18%Cibola 25,595 26,406 811 3.17 28,835 27,261 ‐1,574 ‐5.46%San Miguel 30,126 30,732 606 2.01 31,033 28,655 ‐2,378 ‐7.66%Taos 29,979 30,557 578 1.93 32,331 31,608 ‐723 ‐2.24%Socorro 18 078 18 621 543 3 00 18 788 18 118 ‐670 ‐3 57%Socorro 18,078 18,621 543 3.00 18,788 18,118 670 3.57%Grant 31,002 31,538 536 1.73 31,925 29,699 ‐2,226 ‐6.97%Luna 25,016 25,489 473 1.89 28,189 26,996 ‐1,193 ‐4.23%Roosevelt 18,018 18,417 399 2.21 19,094 19,142 48 0.25%Torrance 16,911 17,272 361 2.13 17,850 16,598 ‐1,252 ‐7.01%Lincoln 19,411 19,712 301 1.55 22,783 20,783 ‐2,000 ‐8.78%Colfax 14,189 14,426 237 1.67 14,619 13,216 ‐1,403 ‐9.59%Sierra 13,270 13,454 184 1.39 13,786 12,316 ‐1,470 ‐10.66%Hidalgo 5,932 6,103 171 2.88 5,985 4,945 ‐1,040 ‐17.37%L Al 18 343 18 504 161 0 88 20 005 18 558 1 447 7 23%Los Alamos 18,343 18,504 161 0.88 20,005 18,558 ‐1,447 ‐7.23%Quay 10,155 10,293 138 1.36 10,273 8,971 ‐1,302 ‐12.67%Guadalupe 4,680 4,771 91 1.94 4,833 4,447 ‐386 ‐7.98%Mora 5,180 5,258 78 1.51 5,520 5,069 ‐451 ‐8.17%Union 4,174 4,226 52 1.25 4,474 3,792 ‐682 ‐15.24%Catron 3,543 3,589 46 1.30 3,922 3,431 ‐491 ‐12.53%DeBaca 2,240 2,258 18 0.80 2,279 1,916 ‐363 ‐15.94%Harding 810 815 5 0.62 817 716 ‐101 ‐12.36%

NEW MEXICO 1,819,046 1,854,322 35,276 1.94 2,053,923 1,969,915 ‐84,008 ‐4.09%

Table 2.  Rapid Growth Counties, 2000‐2007

CountyAbsolute Growth, 

2000‐2007Total Percent 

Change, 2000‐2007Annualized Percent 

Growth Rate, 2000‐2007

S d lSandoval 33,786 37.58% 4.56%Dona Ana 30,565 17.50% 2.30%

Lincoln 3,372 17.37% 2.29%Bernalillo 87,345 15.69% 2.08%Valencia 9,655 14.60% 1.95%Santa Fe 17 003 13 15% 1 88%Santa Fe 17,003 13.15% 1.88%San Juan 15,083 13.25% 1.78%

Luna 3,173 12.68% 1.71%Cibola 3,240 12.66% 1.70%Catron 379 10.71% 1.45%

Los Alamos 1,662 9.06% 1.24%Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, Population Estimates Program. Census 2000 Baseline from the United States Census Bureau.

Table 8.  Notable Changes in Population Share, 2000 to 2007.

Growth County 2000 Share 2007 Share2000 to 2007 

Change

Fast GrowingSandoval 4.94% 6.01% 1.06%B lill 30 60% 31 28% 0 67%Fast Growing Bernalillo 30.60% 31.28% 0.67%Dona Ana 9.60% 9.97% 0.36%

Otero 3.42% 3.25% ‐0.18%Curry 2.48% 2.30% ‐0.18%Lea 3 05% 2 84% ‐0 21%

Slow GrowingLea 3.05% 2.84% ‐0.21%McKinley 4.11% 3.88% ‐0.23%Eddy 2.84% 2.56% ‐0.28%Chaves 3.37% 3.08% ‐0.29%

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, Population Estimates Program. Census 2000 Baseline from the United States Census Bureau.

Program Scope and 2008 AchievementsProgram Scope and 2008 Achievements

1. Participate in Census Bureau programs aimed at reducing undercount and underestimation ofreducing undercount and underestimation of the New Mexico population.

2. Produce alternative intercensal estimates for New Mexico: State, County, and Cities—and lobby the Census Bureau to accept them aslobby the Census Bureau to accept them as “official” alternatives.

Provide in State scientific expertise in applied3. Provide in-State scientific expertise in applied demography, population dynamics, and related research.

State-Level Reviewer: Local Update of Census Addresses Program (LUCA)

Key partners included the Earth Data Analysis Center the Division of Finance Administration the NM GACKey partners included the Earth Data Analysis Center, the Division of Finance Administration, the NM-GAC Population Working Group, the Mid-Region Council of Governments, and the many agencies state-wide who generously processed and provided data for the project.

◦ Added ~130K housing units to the Census Bureau’sAdded 130K housing units to the Census Bureau s Master Address File (MAF) for New Mexico.◦ Added 371 Group Quarters facilities to the Census

B rea ’s state ide in entorBureau’s statewide inventory.

Intercensal Estimate Data Inputs and Reviews:

◦ In 2008, BBER provided reviews and input data on:

Group Quarters facilities.Vital records (births and deaths)Housing unit estimates

In 2008, BBER staff participated in the following Key Census Bureau committees:

◦ 2010 Full Count Review Committee (Staff as Chair).◦ FSCPE Steering Committee (Staff as Vice-Chair).FSCPE Steering Committee (Staff as Vice Chair).◦ Housing Unit-based Estimation Research Team

(HUBERT).R h M th d S b C itt◦ Research Methods Sub-Committee.◦ FSCPP (Staff served as Chair).

In 2008, the Program released:g

◦ State Total Population Estimates for July 1, 2007.◦ County Total Population Estimates for July 1, 2007.◦ Total Population Estimates for six largest cities, for July 1, 2007.Total Population Estimates for six largest cities, for July 1, 2007.

◦ State and County methodologies for estimating characteristics are being rigorously evaluated—release of July 1, 2007 County characteristics estimates is anticipated within two weeks.p

◦ Updated State and County Population Projections: 2005-2035.

Available at: http://www unm edu/~bber/samplecd htmAvailable at: http://www.unm.edu/ bber/samplecd.htm

County 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035NEW MEXICO 1,969,292 2,162,331 2,356,236 2,540,145 2,707,757 2,864,796 3,018,289Bernalillo 614,508 713,020 811,861 905,393 993,650 1,080,297 1,166,590

As of July 1…

Catron 3,712 3,881 4,040 4,176 4,263 4,292 4,292Chaves 62,203 63,272 65,025 66,933 68,720 70,547 72,667Cibola 28,506 29,844 31,164 32,293 33,138 33,873 34,624Colfax 14,375 14,803 15,323 15,836 16,214 16,480 16,720Curry 46,289 47,861 49,117 50,177 50,955 51,582 52,226De Baca 2,256 2,268 2,313 2,349 2,372 2,401 2,438Dona Ana 192,474 215,828 237,241 256,619 274,661 291,895 309,279Eddy 52,167 54,145 56,331 58,294 59,731 60,764 61,605Grant 31 511 33 626 35 748 37 744 39 589 41 369 43 140Grant 31,511 33,626 35,748 37,744 39,589 41,369 43,140Guadalupe 4,743 5,114 5,553 5,961 6,328 6,717 7,160Harding 778 823 868 901 918 932 954Hidalgo 5,966 6,300 6,667 7,061 7,420 7,739 8,051Lea 57,006 60,896 64,410 67,479 70,193 72,928 75,716Lincoln 21,898 22,733 23,574 24,211 24,518 24,640 24,747Los Alamos 19,864 20,129 20,252 20,503 20,880 21,158 21,157Luna 26,394 27,985 29,755 31,479 32,919 34,231 35,647McKinley 78,013 80,747 84,301 88,155 91,200 93,294 94,837yMora 5,440 5,636 5,855 6,007 6,066 6,094 6,134Otero 63,994 66,292 68,814 71,051 72,517 73,436 74,274Quay 10,106 10,232 10,311 10,344 10,289 10,199 10,145Rio Arriba 43,024 44,072 45,224 46,206 46,674 46,879 47,170Roosevelt 18,771 19,399 19,876 20,188 20,330 20,366 20,378Sandoval 107,104 125,675 144,087 163,315 182,592 200,822 217,806San Juan 126,008 133,170 140,523 146,815 151,501 155,593 159,781San Miguel 30,719 31,827 33,137 34,284 35,067 35,677 36,337Santa Fe 143 306 151 510 159 056 165 719 170 730 174 124 176 612Santa Fe 143,306 151,510 159,056 165,719 170,730 174,124 176,612Sierra 13,657 13,717 13,793 13,887 13,959 13,989 14,028Socorro 18,513 19,250 20,012 20,678 21,167 21,526 21,837Taos 31,931 33,879 35,960 38,013 39,743 41,145 42,367Torrance 18,282 20,052 22,184 24,584 26,990 29,132 31,007Union 4,315 4,449 4,814 5,029 5,169 5,259 5,352Valencia 71,459 79,894 89,045 98,459 107,294 115,416 123,212

Source: New Mexico County Population Projections July 1, 2005 to July 1, 2035 , Bureau y p j y yof Business and Economic Research, University of New Mexico. Released August 2008.

Five-Year Cohorts One-Year CohortsC O C

1. State totals.2 State Estimates with Age

1. State totals.2. State Estimates with Age, 2. State Estimates with Age,

Sex, Ethnicity, and Race.3. County Totals4. County Estimates with Age,

gSex, Ethnicity, and Race.

3. County Totals4. County Estimates with Age,

Sex, Ethnicity, and Race.Cou ty st ates t ge,Sex, Ethnicity, and Race.

5. City totals.

y5. City totals.

+

1. City Estimates with Age, Sex, Ethnicity and Race.

2. Census tract totals.3. Census tract estimates with

Census-Scope Expanded Scope Goals

Age, Sex, Ethnicity, and Race.

C S p p S p G

A key program expansion has been BBER’s pursuit of producing its first set of official City total population estimates.

We would like to heartily acknowledge the contributions of the Mid-Region Council of Governments (with whom we co-produced our Albuquerque and Rio Rancho City estimates) as well as the Cities of Las Cruces Roswell Santa Fe andwell as the Cities of Las Cruces, Roswell, Santa Fe, and Farmington for their thoughtful and exhaustive reviews of working estimates and generous inputs of data.

Local Data Inputs

BBER Review by Inputs Estimates Local

Experts

BBERBBER Representation

to Census Bureau

Census Estimates Improved

A Model Process for Small-Area EstimatesS

Geography April 1 2000 July 1 2007 2000 Share of County2007 Share of  ~ 7‐year  2000‐2007 Annualized 

Table 1.  2007 BBER City Population Estimates:  Six Largest New Mexico Cities.

Geography April 1, 2000 July 1, 2007 2000 Share of CountyCounty Increase Growth

Bernalillo County 556,678 644,023 15.69% 2.24%

City of Albuquerque 448,607 526,694 80.59% 81.78% 17.41% 2.49%

Sandoval County 89,908 123,694 37.58% 5.37%

City of Rio Rancho 51,765 79,746 57.58% 64.47% 54.05% 7.72%

Santa Fe County 129,292 146,295 13.15% 1.88%

City of Santa Fe 62,203 70,138 48.11% 47.94% 12.76% 1.82%

San Juan County 113,801 128,884 13.25% 1.89%

City of Farmington 37,844 42,897 33.25% 33.28% 13.35% 1.91%

Dona Ana County 174,682 205,247 17.50% 2.50%

City of Las Cruces 74,267 93,753 42.52% 45.68% 26.24% 3.75%

Ch C 57 849 63 480 9 73% 1 39%Chaves County 57,849 63,480 9.73% 1.39%

City of Roswell 44,480 49,298 76.89% 77.66% 10.83% 1.55%

Source:  BBER Population Estimates and Projections Program, UNM.  Bernalillo and Sandoval County numbers produced in partnership with the Mid‐Region Council of Governments. Review of working numbers and input data were generously shared by the City of Santa Fe, the City of Roswell, the City of Farmington,  and the City of Las Cruces.

Table 2.  2007 Census Bureau Population Estimates:  Six Largest New Mexico Cities

Geography April 1, 2000 July 1, 2007 2000 Share of County2007 Share of 

County7‐year Increase

2000‐2007 Annualized Growth

Bernalillo County 556,678 629,292 13.04% 1.86%

City of Albuquerque 448,607 518,271 80.59% 82.36% 15.53% 2.22%

Sandoval County 89,908 117,866 31.10% 4.44%

City of Rio Rancho 51,765 75,665 57.58% 64.20% 46.17% 6.60%y , ,

Santa Fe County 129,292 142,955 10.57% 1.51%

City of Santa Fe 62,203 73,199 48.11% 51.20% 17.68% 2.53%

San Juan County 113,801 122,427 7.58% 1.08%

City of Farmington 37,844 42,425 33.25% 34.65% 12.10% 1.73%

Dona Ana County 174,682 198,791 13.80% 1.97%,

City of Las Cruces 74,267 89,722 42.52% 45.13% 20.81% 2.97%

Chaves County 57,849 62,595 8.20% 1.17%

City of Roswell 44,480 45,569 76.89% 72.80% 2.45% 0.35%

During 2008, BBER Staff were key participants in the Housing Unit-Based Estimation Research Team (HUBERT) and the Research Methods Sub-Committee of the FSCPE:

◦ The Census Bureau has indicated that it will make evaluation of alternative State estimates much more rigorous.Only ongoing scientifically rigorous research and high quality◦ Only ongoing scientifically rigorous research and high-quality database development will permit achievement of BBER’s elusive goal of gaining acceptance of its estimates by the Census Bureau.Census Bureau.

During 2008, the BBER team worked on a number of side-projects providing special expertise to important State andprojects, providing special expertise to important State and Local projects involving population:

◦ Population Estimates and Projections (1990 to 2060) for New MexicoPopulation Estimates and Projections (1990 to 2060) for New Mexico Water Planning Regions—in support of the State Water Plan and for the Interstate Streams Commission.

S th V ll I ti F ibilit St d ( D L R i ’◦ South Valley Incorporation Feasibility Study (see Dr. Lee Reynis’ presentation on this project later today at the Data Users Conference).

Database Development & Ongoing p g gMethodological Research on Population

Estimation and Projection

1. Complete electronic address-matching for th f ll i d t t d d tthe following datasets and dates:

1. Building Permits (1990 to 2006) (2007)1. Building Permits (1990 to 2006) (2007)2. Births and Deaths (1990 to 2005) (2006)3. Driver’s Licenses (2000 to 2004)4 Group Quarters Inventory (2007)4. Group Quarters Inventory (2007)5. Address Master File (current as of 2008)

R h ff t ti h t ll tResearch efforts continue on how to allocate ungeocoded observations—center on correction to our address master file and related strategies.

1. Housing unit-based estimates according to geographic scale (State County City Census Tract)(State, County, City, Census Tract).

◦ Estimation of intercensal persons-per-household (See Xiaomin Ruan’s presentation later today).

◦ Harmonization of multiple methods (such as component or p pratio-correlation methods).

2. Remediating spatially-incomplete data—steps toward spatial population forecasting models—sub-area allocation models for

ti di i l tcorrecting geocoding incompleteness.3. Estimation of population characteristics (age and sex) using the

Leslie model.This research has led to four national-level presentations on applied demographicThis research has led to four national level presentations on applied demographic

methods, three published articles, three articles under review or in final prep for review, and one recently-invited book chapter. All these will be used to leverage support for acceptance of BBER estimates by the Census Bureau.

Future Goals: Preparation for 2010 CensusFuture Goals: Preparation for 2010 Census

1. Finish State-Level LUCA.2. Extend data product production to expanded scope.

C i i i i k C B i i d3. Continue to participate in key Census Bureau committees aimed at reducing Undercount. (Particularly the Count Review Program)

4. Continue and expand research on methods to include:◦ Migration (hazard and time series models with spatial effects)◦ Migration (hazard and time-series models with spatial effects)◦ Prepare to evaluate multiple methods against the 2010 Census.

How do applied demographers integrate multiple estimates made with different methods?

◦ Correcting data bias due to geocoding errors—enabling spatial forecasting models.

◦ Dynamic models for estimating population characteristics.

BBER’s Population Estimates and Projections Program is expanding ambitiously in coverage and agendaexpanding ambitiously in coverage and agenda.Its main focus is on remediating undercount/underestimation of the New Mexico population by program participation and representation of high-quality data inputs and alternative estimates to the United States Census Bureau.Along the way—it hopes to build collaborative relationships with local stakeholders and to provide useful data to local users as a by product of its general mission (e g tract levelusers as a by-product of its general mission (e.g.—tract-level estimates).

Jack Baker, Ph.D.Research Scientist III

Bureau of Business and Economic Researchkali@unm.edu

(505) 277-2212