Kids Having Kids: Economic and Social Consequences of Teen

PregnancyWorkshop on Tackling Adolescent Reproductive Health

World Bank

Rebecca A. Maynard, Ph.D.University of Pennsylvania

December 1, 2009

3-Part Agenda Brief overview of the Kids Having Kids

project Review of the methodology Summary of findings

The Kids Having Kids Initiative

Rationale• High and rising rates of teenage pregnancy• Increasing proportions of pregnant teens

keeping and raising babies• Most babies reared by single mothers• Most babies reared in poverty

Goal• Document the consequences of kids having

kids• Estimate the costs of teenage childbearing

Strong Indicators of High Costs

Single parent households • Welfare dependence• Poverty

Low school completion rates Child abuse and neglect Poor child outcomes

Robin Hood Foundation Initiative

University of Chicago’s Harris School Nationally prominent scholars Research and policy advisors Cost analysis overlay

First edition 1997 Second edition 2007

Call to Action: Births per 1000 Pre 1992

guttmacher.org/pubs/2006/09/12/USTPstats.p

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 199140.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

51.050.2 50.6

53.0

57.3

60.361.8

Favorable Trends Leading Up to and Following First Study

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Pregnancy Rate Abortion Rate Birth Rate

422,000 Births to Teens (2004):80% First Births

Birth Before Age 18

Birth Age 18 - 19

Total

Total 140,761 281,282 422,023

First Birth 126,471 210,312 336,783

Higher Order 14,290 70,970 85,240

Eight-Part Study Consequences for Teenage Mothers Consequences for Fathers of Children Born

to Teenage Mothers Consequences for Children

• Social and psychological• Abuse and neglect• Criminal activity• Adult earnings

Consequences for Taxpayers and Society Evidence of Effective Prevention

Strategies

Method for Measuring Impacts

Mothers: HS Diploma or GED Children: HS Completion

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

70 736978

-1-5

Observed-Teenage MothersPredicted Outcomes if Delayed Childbear-ingEstimated Consequence

Aggregating “Costs” of Teenage

Childbearing Perspectives

• Teenage mothers• Taxpayers• Society (distribution neutral)

Assigning value/cost to some consequences• E.g., incarceration spells; administrative costs of

welfare; foster care; education of children Aggregating over families

• Accounting for compositional effects and cohort size Steady-state accounting 5% annual discount

Teen Parents Gain Some (Average per Year Over 15 Years)

Productivity• Mother• Father• Children

Child Support Public Assistance

• Cash/near cash Criminal justice Out-of-pocket

health care costsBefore age

18Age 18 -

19

$-

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$11,178 $12,147

$9,501

$11,842

Observed If Delayed

Costs to Taxpayers (Billions per Year)

Tax revenues• Mother• Father• Children

Public Assistance• Cash/near cash• Medical

Foster care Special education Criminal justice

Series1 $(1.00)

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00 $7.61

$(0.31)

$7.30

Before Age 18Before Age 19

Costs to Society (Billions per Year)

Productivity• Mother• Father• Children

Public service administration• Cash/near cash• Medical

Foster care Special education Criminal justice

Society $-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0 $23.0

$4.8

$27.8

Before Age 18Age 18-19Total

Prevention Is Challenging: Review of Evidence

Sexual activity risk:100• 21 studies/ 40

estimates Similar results

across four types of programs

Series10.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.013.7

15.0

Intervention GroupControl Group

Effectiveness of Prevention Programs

Pregnancy risk:100• 24 studies/ 34

estimates Small impacts Significant only for

multi-component youth development programs• 3 studies/6

estimates

Series10.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.0013.70

15.00

Intervention GroupControl Group

Effectiveness of Prevention Programs

Pregnancy :100

• 13 studies/ 25 estimates

Small average impacts

Impacts distributed across various program models Series1

0123456789

10

8.2 8.6

Intervention GroupControl Group

Implications There are real costs of teenage

childbearing• Borne by taxpayers and society, not the

teens Solutions are not obvious

• Health and sex ed seems necessary, but not sufficient

• Social norms seem to play an important role Consider testing more differentiated

interventions