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Real LifeSimulation Risk HighLow

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Why Use Simulation? Natural next step in the Portfolio Management Maturity Model

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How Simulation Helps Project Selection Organizations Strategy = Project Selection Strategic Goals (Fruit) What our organization wants to accomplish. Typically measured by KPIs Projects (Branches) The work that will be done to yield the desired strategic goals. Constraints (Roots) The bottom-up support of projects. Short-falls here result in smaller and more delayed fruit. People Money Weather, Regulations, Complexity, Etc. Supply Chain Quality

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Project Which portfolio of projects yields the most value? How to prioritize projects based on value? How to align the project timing with organization capacity? Budget FTEs Deadlines (Time) Scope Project

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Significant risk results from the Error of Averages What are some dangers of averages (estimates): Rarely 100% accurate Become commitments Must guess at buffers etc.

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The actual future will yield one, specific result, which cant be known for certain. However, if the future could be repeated many times, certain outcomes are more likely. Representing this likelihood is often easier than other estimation techniques (PERT, Delphi, Planning Poker, Decomposition, etc.)

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Engineer Tester Designer Engineer Tester Engineer Tester

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ProjectRepository Add Variability Add Other Risk Add Resources Add Revenue/Value Modify Projects Impact of Constraints Project Selection Project Timing Adjust Capacities Optimize What-ifScenarios Simulation Sandbox

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Real Life Outcomes Run Simulation Create Scenarios Project/Server Static Data Current Projects with Unlimited Capacity (Current Schedules) Current Projects with Current Capacity (RIA Resource Impact Analysis) Drop or Postpone the Start of Lower Priority Projects with Current Capacity Current Projects with Additional Capacity (ROI) Reprioritized Projects with Current Capacity on Revenue or NPV Current Projects but Outsource a Program of Work (More $ than People) Current Projects plus Visionary Additional Projects with/without Additional Capacity Current Projects using static data for next 3 months but using the best practice of Simulation on long term projects via Variability (best case, worst case, most likely). Current Projects with full Risk Modeling (Variability and Survival)

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Discrete-Event Simulation in Action

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MyPC fill out evaluations & win prizes! Fill out session evaluations by logging into MyPC on your laptop or mobile device. Evaluation prizes daily! Claim your prize at the Registration Desk on Level 1. www.msprojectconference.com After the event, over 100 hours of resources; including all of the PPT decks and session videos will be available.

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