How Does Your Subdivision Trend?

Behind the NumbersDownstream of this presentation are a series of graphs and a heat map. The values are based on recorded closings and square feet in the subdivision over time as reported in public records.

The y-axis represents the slope of the trend over time, given in price per square foot.

The data is biased towards the subdivision, but contains data points also pulled from the surrounding township following Quantitative Comps analysis protocol to reflect the overall economic environment of that property.

Arbitrage MarketsTaking the calculated slope which gives an average based on the regressing trend (red dots below), we can compare the average price per square foot to a single-point value average (blue dot below).

A large difference in value in price per square foot between the two averages can be exploited by real estate investment dollars, presumably since the two averages will eventually meet.

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Resulting Heat Map – Arbitrage OpportunitiesIn price per square foot ± from the single point average. Spectrum from black/red to yellow/white =

from heated to undervalued market.

Brookfield Brookgreen Jordan RidgeRidgepath Cotswold South RaleighKrendle Woods Windsong Highland GardensPirates Cove Southchase Cymen CommonsBriarcliff Willow Creek RollingwoodThe Highlands Weston Trace Falls RiverOxford Hunt Camelot Coldwater SpringsOxford Hunt Braxton Village Mallard CrossingDutchess Village Knightdale Ridgefield

23.63 15.92 -11.6238.71 -12.42 -13.1437.57 -15.51 -34.1634.87 16.91 2.3032.48 -3.89 -8.0727.90 -29.18 -25.19-1.03 -31.89 16.16-1.03 -11.15 -34.4818.62 19.49 -1.10

Brookfield, 27502

Briarcliff, 27511

Oxford Hunt, 27513

Windsong, 27518

Greenbrier Estates, 27603

Highland Gardens, 27607

Falls River, 27614

Coldwater Springs, 27616

Ridgefield, 27703