Real Estate Market in the Czech Republic and EU Region under

Influence of World Financial Crisis

Lubos Smutka, Ph.D.Czech University of Life Sciences PragueFaculty of Economics and Management

Department of Economics

Brief introduction about the Czech Republic and

Europe

European Union

EU in briefFounded in 1957 – 6 member states27 member countries22 official languagesOrganization “sue generis”

a hybrid intergovernmental and supranational organizationfirst supranational law system organization lower trade barriersadopt a common currencymove toward convergence of living standards.

More than 4.3 mil. sq km (4,324,782 sq km)

Population - 499,673,300  Population growth rate – 0.16 %

EU – basic characteristics• Area: 4,324,782 sq km • Population: 491,582,852 (July 2009 est.) • Population growth rate: 0.108% (2009 est.) • Net migration rate: 1.46 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2009

est.) • Life expectancy at birth: 78.67 years • GDP (purchasing power parity): $14.91 trillion (2008) • GDP (official exchange rate): $18.14 trillion (2008 est.) • GDP - real growth rate: 0.8% (2008 est.) • GDP - per capita (PPP): $33,700 (2008 est.) • Unemployment rate: 7.4% (2008 est.) • Inflation rate (consumer prices): 3.5% (2008 est.)

The Czech Republic

Czech Republic

• The Czech Republic was born on January 1, 1993, when the Czechoslovak Federal Republic split into two independent states, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Since May, 2004, the Czech Republic has been a member of the European Union. However, the country has not adopted the euro yet and still uses its national currency, the Czech koruna.

Geography and location

The Czech Republic

Peaceful,Friendly,Tolerant,Patient,Foxy,Selfish,Calm and confident

Others countries’ opinions – for example Bulgarian opinion

Basic information Basic information Area km2 78 886Inhabitants 10,3 mil.Per km2 131Unemployment

GDP/cap

Rate of inflation

Average gross salary

8,6 %

USD 20 700 (60% of EU)

2,1%

1 350 USD/cap/month

GDP - Share ofAgriculture

2,5 %

Administrative structureAdministrative structure

• 7 regions + Capital

• 6249 sub-regions

Geography

• Area: • total: 78,866 sq km

land: 77,276 sq km water: 1,590 sq km

• Land use: • arable land: 38.82%

permanent crops: 3% other: 58.18% (2005)

Population: 10,220,911 (July 2008 est.)

0-14 years: 13.8% (male 723,521/female 684,786) 15-64 years: 71.2% (male 3,653,679/female 3,619,872)

65 years and over: 15.1% (male 604,419/female 934,634) (2008 est.)

Age structure:

Population growth rate:

-0.082% (2008 est.)

Government

Government• Capital: Prague

- Chief of state: President Vaclav KLAUS (since 7 March 2003)

- Head of government: Prime Minister Jan Fischer; - Government consists of 18 members- Parliament consists of the Senate (81 seats; members

are elected by popular vote to serve six-year terms; one-third elected every two years) and the Chamber of Deputies (200 seats; members are elected by popular vote to serve four-year terms)

The Czech Republic is a member of the following organizations and institutions.

• ACCT (observer), Australia Group, BIS, BSEC (observer), CE, CEI, CERN, EAPC, EBRD, EIB, ESA (cooperating state), EU, FAO, IAEA, IBRD, ICAO, ICC, ICCt (signatory), ICRM, IDA, IEA, IFC, IFRCS, ILO, IMF, IMO, IMSO, Interpol, IOC, IOM, IPU, ISO, ITSO, ITU, ITUC, MIGA, NAM (guest), NATO, NEA, NSG, OAS (observer), OECD, OIF (observer), OPCW, OSCE, PCA, Schengen Convention, UN, UNCTAD, UNESCO, UNIDO, UNMEE, UNMIL, UNOMIG, UNWTO, UPU, WCL, WCO, WEU (associate), WFTU, WHO, WIPO, WMO, WTO, ZC

National Economy - GDP• GDP (official exchange rate):

$175.3 billion (2007) $217.1 billion (2008 est.) • GDP (purchasing power parity):

$251 billion (2007) $265.2 billion (2008 est.) • GDP - real growth rate:

6.6% (2007 est.) 3% (2008 est.) • GDP - per capita (PPP):

$24,500 (2007) $25,900 (2008 est.) • Inflation rate (consumer prices):

2.9% (2007 est.) 6.3% (2008)

• GDP - composition by sector: • agriculture: 2.7% agriculture: 2.3%• industry: 38.7% industry: 37.6%

services: 58.6% (2007 est.) services: 60.1% (2008 est.)

National Economy – Labour Forces

• 5.36 million (2007 est.) • Unemployment rate: 6.6% (2007 est.)

• 5.4% (2008) • 8% (2009)

• Labour force - by occupation: – agriculture: 3.6%– industry: 40.2%– services: 56.2% (2007)

National Economy• Budget:

revenues: $72.1 billion expenditures: $74.98 billion (2007)

revenues: $93.42 billionexpenditures: $96.09 billion (2008 est.)

• Public debt: 26% of GDP (2007) 26.8% of GDP (2008 est.)

Current account balance: -$4.534 billion (2007) -$6.642 billion (2008 est.)

Debt - external: $74.7 billion (31 December 2007) $80.43 billion (31 December 2008)

Foreign trade• Exports: $122.3 billion f.o.b. (2007)

$145.7 billion (2008 est.) - machinery and transport

equipment 52%,- raw materials and fuel 9%,- chemicals 5%

Germany 30.6%, Slovakia 9.2%, Poland 6.5%, France 5.3%, UK 4.8%,

Italy 4.6%, Austria 4.7% (2008) • Imports: $116.6 billion f.o.b. (2007)

$139.4 billion (2008 est.) - machinery and transport equipment 46%, - raw materials and fuels 15%,- chemicals 10%

Germany 30.3%, Netherlands 5.6%, Slovakia 6.6%, Poland 6.4%, China 4.9%,

Austria 5.2%, Russia 6.2%, Italy 4.1%, France 4.1% (2008)

Residential real estate property – family houses and apartments

• Czech Republic

• Europe

Inter annual growth of family houses prices

Region 2005 2006 2007 2008 Czech republic 2,20% 7,0% 12,2% 6,5% Praha -3,20% 9,90% 7,60% 1,30% Středočeský kraj 1,60% 6,00% 14,40% 8,00% Jihočeský kraj 5,80% 5,80% 11,30% 3,10% Plzeňský kraj -2,50% 7,50% 10,60% 8,10% Karlovarský kraj 5,00% 10,40% 12,50% 1,30% Ústecký kraj 1,00% 9,60% 10,80% 9,80% Liberecký kraj 10,60% 6,00% 10,00% 1,20% Královéhradecký kraj 4,90% 6,10% 13,10% 3,80% Pardubický kraj 5,50% 5,60% 12,60% 3,20% Kraj Vysočina 3,10% 6,80% 8,80% 7,60% Jihomoravský kraj 3,10% 7,20% 14,90% 7,50% Olomoucký kraj 2,90% 11,20% 11,90% 8,30% Zlínský kraj 5,20% 7,20% 10,30% 12,50% Moravskoslezský kraj 2,50% 4,60% 21,20% 6,80%

Development of Residential Real Estate Property in Selected Developed Countries (in real prices)

The characteristic of main cycles in residential real estates property prices in selected developed countries in period

Country The main period of price growth 

Duration (number of quarters) 

The main period of price slowdown

Duration (number of quarters) 

USA  1995Q1-2005Q2: +52,7 %  41 -  - 

Japan 1977Q3-1991Q1: +77,6 %  54 1991Q1-2005Q1: -40,7 %  56

Germany  1976Q2-1981Q2: +15,7 %  20 1994Q2-2004Q4: -20,5 %  42

France  1997Q1-2005Q1: + 74,3 %  32 1981Q1-1984Q3: -18,1 %  14

Italy  1970Q1-1981Q1: + 98,0 %  44 1981Q1-1986Q2: -35,3 %  21

Canada 1985Q1-1989Q1: +66,5 %  25 1981Q1-1985Q1: -20,9 %  16

UK 1995Q4-2005Q2: +137,4 %  38 1973Q3-1977Q3: -33,7 %  16

Australia  1996Q1-2004Q1: + 84,7 %  32 -  - 

Denmark 1993Q2-2004Q3: +93,4 %  45 1979Q2-1982Q4: -36,8 %  14

Finland  1979Q1-1989Q1: +111,8 %  40 1989Q1-1993Q2: -49,7 %  17

South Korea  1987Q3-1991Q2: +33,5 %  15 1991Q1-2001Q1: -47,5 %  39

Ireland  1992Q3-2005Q1: +242,7 %  50 1981Q3-1987Q2: -27,1 %  23

Netherlands  1985Q3-2005Q1: +183,1 %  78 1978Q2-1985Q3: -50,4 %  29

New Zealand  1970Q1-1974Q3: + 62,7 %  18 1974Q3-1980Q4: -37,8 %  25

Norway  1993Q1-2005Q2: +136,3 %  49 1986Q4-1993Q1: -40,6 %  25

Spain  1996Q4-2004Q4: +114,2 %  32 1978Q2-1986Q1: -32,2 %  31

Sweden  1996Q2-2005Q2: +80,1 %  36 1979Q3-1986Q1: -37,9 %  26

Switzerland  1976Q3-1989Q4: +73,5 %  53 1989Q4-2000Q1: -40,7 %  41

Basic trends in European real estate market in 2008/2009

• The year 2007 – the enormous growth of real estate property prices • The year 2008 – the fall of real estate property prices• Financial crisis – the economic slowdown in EUROPE is accompanied by

the slowdown of real estate property prices• The growth of loan rates,• Banks are more strict,• It is much more difficult to get credit or loan,• The crisis affected the whole European property market • The impact of crisis on individual European countries was different,• The most affected countries were UK, Ireland and Spain (countries with

really significant price bubble)• All European countries were affected by the crisis – because of links

among individual countries

Ireland• Prices of buildings started to fall in 2007• In July 2008 prices felt by more than 12% and they reached the

level of the year 2005 – the price fall was possible to see especially in case of Dublin

• The average time period for trade transaction increased significantly• The end of 2008 – prices decreased in all sectors of real estate

property market (slowdown 15 – 50%).• The number of transaction decreased significantly – by about 50-

90%• In Dublin prices of real estates decreased by more than 40% during

the year 2008 (in comparison with the period 2006-2007) • The market with apartments for rent was slowly growing, but the

value of rent decreased by about 10%

UK• In 2007 – first problems on real estate market• Bank changed their loan policy• Real estate property prices started to decrease and investors started to

lose their trust in real estate market as a store of value• Just in 2008 real estate market lost about 16% of its value from the year

2007 (reasons: credit conditions, price slowdown and anticipation)• Investors from US left British market. The result of it was decrease of

provided mortgages and fall of property market (mainly apartments)• Developers had to decrease their prices of new constructions, because of

property market slowdown

Spain• The year 2007 is possible to describe as a „terrible year of Spanish

real estate market“, • Spanish market is not transparent at all, therefore it is very difficult

to estimate exactly the impact of crisis on Spanish real estate market,

• According to CG-COAPI – the biggest real estate organization on Spanish market – the inter annual slowdown of market was about 40% in case of buildings and 30% in case of apartments,

• The number of mortgages decreased by more than 60%• The incomes of private owners and real estate agencies decreased

by about 60% 2008-2009  • The current situation increased interest of people to rent flats and

the average value of rent for flat increased by about 4%.

Denmark• Denmark was affected by the crisis later than

other European countries.  • During the period 2008/2009 prices of real

estate property decreased by 6%,• Danish government pointed out current property

crisis as a potentional threat, and probably the most dangerous one, for Danish economy,

• On the other hand rental market is constantly growing and just in 2008 – the average value of rental fee increased by about 3%.

Francie• The year 2008 – the decrease of purchasing power of

households, extreme impact of US crisis on French bank system, the slowdown of bank system liquidity, the slowdown of number of mortgages provided,

• Prices of buildings and houses decreased by about 5%, prices of apartments decreased by 1,2%, real estate market was affected just only a little bit,

• Rental market increased by 3%, but it is possible to expect the slowdown of rents for flats especially in big cities.

The Netherlands• Dutch real estate property market had to face to impact of financial

crisis at the end of 2008 – it means later than it was in case the majority of EU members,

• The number of transaction decreased by more than 80%,• The changes in prices were only minimum, but people stopped to

sell and buy and both buyers and sellers waited for another development (during the last quarter of 2008 the number of houses sold decreased by 27%),

• The crisis influenced mainly transactions in value between 350 ths. – 900 ths. EURO), 

• There are existing huge differences between individual Dutch regions, especially property market in Amsterdam is very stable,

• Rental market was not affected at all, and the average value of rent for flat increased during the year 2008 by 1,6%.

Italy• In 2008, the real estate market was affected by minimum

way,• Real estate property market changed its prices by only

5-10%,• Rental market was affected by the crisis especially in

case of rural areas, in urban areas rental fee decreased by only 5-7%,

• Demand for rental housing is constantly increasing, but demand for new apartments stagnates,

• The value of average rental fee is slowly increasing.

Scandinavian countries• Except for Denmark, the impact of financial crisis on

Scandinavian countries was very limited,• Individual countries had to face to real estate market

crisis sometimes at the end of 2008,• Real estate property prices started to decrease during

the last three months of 2008. In Finland and Sweden the slowdown of real estate property market was about 3-4%.

Germany

• German real estate market is very specific (rent regulation, lower share of apartments in private ownership in comparison with the rest of EU),

• In past years the growth of German market was not so progressive like it was in case of before mentioned countries,

• Financial crisis did not affect German market so much like it was in some other countries,

• The main problem of German real estate market is discussion about rent regulation and about the growth of rental fee 

Selected Middle and East European Countries

• The crisis influenced especially Baltic countries, • Latvia, Estonia (during 2004-2006 prices of apartments increased more than

two times, in 2007 the slowdown of real estate property market was recorded, in 2008 market collapsed (50% slowdown).

• Lithuania – the impact of crisis is limited, • Poland – mild slowdown of real estate property market, number of new

projects decreased, rental market is growing,• Russia – after several years of prosperity, the real estate property market

recorded significant slowdown, • Czech Republic – in 2008 real estate property market was not affected by

financial crisis, problems started since the beginning of 2009. After several years of permanent growth of prices, the Czech Republic has to face market prices slowdown by about 10%,

• Hungary – in 2008 stable development trend, in 2009 real estate property prices decreased , 

• Austria – in 2008 real estate property and rental markets changed only a little bit.

Czech real estate property market – apartments and family houses

Types of taxes applied in CR

Individual Income Tax flat : 15%

Corporate Income Tax 21%

VAT 9% food and services and 19% other goods

Property tax

Building tax less than 0,1%

Ground tax less than 0,1%

Tax from Sale of Real Estate: 3%

Transaction Costs

Who Pays?

Legal Fees 1% (+ 19% VAT) buyer

Registration Fees 0.01% - 0.02% buyer

Agent's Fee 2.5% - 5% buyer

Transfer Tax 3% seller

Costs paid by buyer 3.7% - 6.21%Costs paid by seller 3%ROUNDTRIP

TRANSACTION COSTS

6.7% - 9.21%

See FootnotesSource: Global Property Guide

How difficult is the property purchase process in Czech Republic?

• The following can buy real estate without any restriction:- Czech citizens-Legal entities headquartered in the Czech Republic-Foreigners with a permanent residence permit for the CR- People granted asylum in the CR

Square Metre Prices - Czech Republic Compared to Continent

• Monaco€35,658 UK€14,421 Russia€11,851 France€9,961 Switzerland€7,138 Finland€6,468 Greece€6,048 Italy€5,541 Ireland€5,483 Luxembourg€5,376 Montenegro€4,759 Denmark€4,607 Andorra€4,140 Czech Rep.€4,015 Spain€3,932 Slovak Rep.€3,597 Netherlands€3,579 Lithuania€3,539 Romania€3,484 Poland€3,348 Austria€3,000 Slovenia€2,926 Germany€2,882 Latvia€2,860 Estonia€2,841 Ukraine€2,807 Malta€2,646 Cyprus€2,513 Croatia€2,474 Belgium€2,465 Portugal€2,225 Bulgaria€2,214 Hungary€1,683 Turkey€1,390 Moldova€1,013 Macedonia€1,003

Gross Rental Yields - Czech Republic Compared to Continent

Moldova14.17% Macedonia10.11% Ukraine9.09%Hungary8.11% Netherlands6.63% Poland5.83%Belgium5.78% Romania5.50% Slovenia5.49%Turkey5.48% Germany5.12% Croatia5.07% Italy5.04% Switzerland4.80% Bulgaria4.62% Latvia4.40% Austria4.40% Denmark4.36% Estonia4.36% Slovak Rep.4.28% Czech Rep.3.89% France3.85% Spain3.81% Lithuania3.70% Finland3.69% Luxembourg3.63% UK3.48%Russia3.45% Cyprus3.45% Malta2.94% Greece2.71% Andorra2.19% Monaco1.48%

The development of houses and apartments number in ths.

The structure of apartments in the Czech Republic according to age

Czech Republic

Development of selected real estate property prices in the CR

The number of new building permissions and estimative price of buildings

Czech Republic

New apartments development trend in the CR

Flats under the construction Finished flats

The number of finished apartments in individual regions in the CR

Average prices for one square meter development in the Czech Republic in period 2007-2008

Average prices for one square meter development – in dependence on the size of the flat

The relationship between size of apartment and price for one square meter

Average price of apartment in dependence on ownership and construction material

Average price for one square meter of older apartment in

private ownership – differences among individual regions

Average value of one month rent for apartment – differences among regions

Differences in open market rents, prices and salaries among individual regions in the Czech Republic

Czech Republic and Crisis• The Czech Republic is small, at only 78,864 sq. km. with a

population of 10.2 million. After rising by an average of 6.6% annually from 2005 to 2007, GDP growth in the Czech Republic slowed to 4.4% in 2008. The slowdown was primarily due to falling exports and weaker domestic demand. In Q3 2008, exports were down 10.7% y-o-y.

• Almost 85% of the country’s exports go to the EU; around 30% to Germany which is now in recession. Several companies, particularly in the financial, banking and manufacturing sectors have started to lay-off workers.

• In January 2009, over 45,000 people lost their jobs. This pushed unemployment to 6.8%, up from 4.3% in Q3 2008, the lowest level in a decade. Unemployment is expected to reach 7.5% in 2009 and 8.5% in 2010.

Czech Republic – GDP development

2009 – negative development trend -5%

Mortgages in the CR

Mortgages 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082009

/6

total value in billion CZK 154 226 327 470 584 623

average value in million CZK 1.27 1.41 1.5 1.71 1.77 1.68

loan rate in % 4.74 5.08 4.36 5.34 5.69 5.55

Perspectives for 2009

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2008 3.56 3.69 5.42 0.24

2007 12.20 8.79 4.11 3.20

2006 2.17 2.51 2.07 6.74

2005 0.50 0.51 0.50 1.20

% change over a quarter

Source: Czech Statistical Office

Apartments• The growth of individual consumption together with the

growth of individual incomes were the main engines of residential market growth in past years,

• Since 2001 the residential buildings and apartments represented the most profitable sector in area of real estate property market,

• Residential market is very sensitive (consumers preferences, social climate, prices, inflation, mortgages and so on),

• The current slowdown of real estate property market is possible to explain through the following factors– increase of loan interests– financial crisis,– low position of banking sector,– economy slowdown,– people’s anticipation,– drop in domestic and foreign demand,– constantly increasing value of Czech currency

Industrial buildings• Industrial buildings segment was constantly growing during the

last ten years.• The total area of industrial buildings and buildings for logistic

purposes represents about 3 millions square meters, • Made to measure projects had the main position on the market,• The level of demand has been constantly decreasing, • The current level of occupation of industrial areas is about 80% • The growth of demand was recorded only in case of those

projects which size is under the 1500 m2, • The majority of new industrial buildings is possible to find close

to the main agglomerations and European corridors.

Offices

• Prague has the dominant position,• The share of Prague is about 70% - speaking

about new projects,• It is expected that till the end of 2009 the total

area of offices just in Prague will be more than three millions square meters,

• The value of offices in Prague is constantly decreasing – the main reason is too high growth rate of supply in comparison with growth rate of demand – market is almost saturated.

Conclusionin CZK/m2

New apartments Old apartments Panel building Land Rent of apartments2008 2009 Change 2008 2009 Change Change Change Change

Praha 65000 60500slowdown 5-30% 45200 43000

slowdown -15% / -20% slowdown -10%

slowdown by 20% growth

Kladno 41300 33350slowdown 20% 29600 24500slowdown 15% stagnation stagnation stagnation

Mladá Boleslav 38400 33250slowdown by 15% 27500 24450slowdown 10-25%

slowdown -25% / -35% stagnation stagnation

Liberec 37000 33300slowdown by 10% 26400 24500slowdown 15-20%

slowdown -25% / -30% stagnation stagnation

Jablonec nad Nisou 32000 30500slowdown 10% 24000 17500slowdown 20% slowdown 20% stagnation growthÚstí nad Labem 19400 20000growth +3% 13900 14700growth 6% stagnation stagnation stagnation

Most xxx xxx 9000 9000 oscilation +25% / -25% slowdown -10% stagnationm stagnation

Děčín xxx xxx 17000 15500slowdown 10% stagnation stagnation growth 10%Zlín 37000 31500slowdown 15% 26500 22500slowdown 15% slowdown -30% stagnation stagnationKroměžíž 29000 28000slowdown 4% 21000 19000slowdown 10% slowdown -33% stagantion stagnationBrno 46400 40600slowdown 12% 33150 30000slowdown 10% stagantion slowdown slowdown

Znojmo 29000 27500slowdown 5% 20000 19000slowdown 5%slowdown -10% / -15% stagantion slowdown 5-10%

Ostrava 27150 22600slowdown 17% 19400 16650slowdown 15% - 25% slowdown 20% stagnation growthHavířov xxx xxx 15000 13500slowdown 10% - 30% slowdown 20% stagnation slowdown 5-15%Karlovy Vary 42600 40900slowdown 18300 17400slowdown stagnation growth stagnationPlzeň 39200 36000slowdown 10% 28000 23000slowdown 20% slowdown 20% rapid growth slowdown

České Budějovice 32000 28000slowdown 5% - 10% 23000 21700slowdown 5% slowdown 15% - 20% stagnation slowdown

Tábor 30000 28000slowdown 5%-10% 18800 17500slowdown 10% slowdown 15% - 20% mild growth stagnation

Jihlava 34000 31300slowdown 10% 24300 22600slowdown 7% slowdown 7% stagnation growthTřebíč 26000 24000slowdown 8% 18000 16000slowdown 12% slowdown 7% / 15% stagnation mild growth

Pardubice 39300 35000slowdown 10%-30% 28500 25700slowdown 10% slowdown 25%

mild slowdown oscilation -15% / +15%

Chrudim 32000 30000slowdown 7% 25000 23000slowdown 10% slowdown 20% stagnation stagnation

Hradec Králové 42400 37600slowdown 12%-35% 30300 27650slowdown 10% slowdown 25% stagnation oscilation -10% / +10%

Trutnov xxx xxx 21500 20500slowdown 5% slowdown 20% slowdown 5% stagnationOlomouc 37500 33350slowdown 10% 26900 24500slowdown 10% slowdown 35% stagnation slowdown 5%-10%Přerov 27000 25000slowdown 10% 19000 17000slowdown 10% slowdown 35% slowdown 15% growth 5%

Average values 35620 32284slowdown 10% 23433 21167slowdown 10% slowdown 25% stagnationstagnation - mild growth

Conclusion - continuation

Pardubice 39300 35000slowdown 10%-30% 28500 25700slowdown 10% slowdown 25%

mild slowdown oscilation -15% / +15%

Chrudim 32000 30000slowdown 7% 25000 23000slowdown 10% slowdown 20% stagnation stagnation

Hradec Králové 42400 37600slowdown 12%-35% 30300 27650slowdown 10% slowdown 25% stagnation oscilation -10% / +10%

Trutnov xxx xxx 21500 20500slowdown 5% slowdown 20% slowdown 5% stagnationOlomouc 37500 33350slowdown 10% 26900 24500slowdown 10% slowdown 35% stagnation slowdown 5%-10%Přerov 27000 25000slowdown 10% 19000 17000slowdown 10% slowdown 35% slowdown 15% growth 5%

Average values 35620 32284slowdown 10% 23433 21167slowdown 10% slowdown 25% stagnationstagnation - mild growth

Thank you very much for your attention

Lubos Smutka, Ph.D.Czech University of Life Sciences PragueFaculty of Economics and ManagementDepartment of Economicssmutka@pef.czu.cz