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From Reactive to Predictive
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History of Flight Safety
From reactive to predictive
Cpt. Morten YdalusHead of Safety Office
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1908 Wright Flyer 2 Virginia
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1937 Zeppelin LZ-129 New Jersey
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1977 2 B-747 Tenerife
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1979 DC-10 Chicago
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2000 Concorde Paris
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Concept of safety• Consider
– The elimination of accidents (and serious incidents) is unachievable.
– Failures will occur, in spite of the most accomplished prevention efforts.
– No human endeavour or human-made system can be free from risk and error.
– Controlled risk and controlled error is acceptable in an inherently safe system.
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Concept of Safety (ICAO Doc 9859)
• Safety is the state in which the risk of
harm to persons or property damage is
reduced to, and maintained at or below,
an acceptable level through a
continuing process of hazard
identification and risk management.
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80
70
60
50
40
30
20
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0Today
TIME
Accident Statistics
Annual hull losses per million departuresWorldwide Commercial Jet FleetSources: IATA, NTSB and Boeing
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Technical causes most common in the past
Ifsd-cfm56-0.003 -333.000-900-185
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Today: 60-80 % Human Error
60-80 % Human Error Today
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100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%Today
TIME
Human Causes
Machine Causes
ACCIDENTS
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The evolution of safety thinking
TECHNICAL FACTORS
HUMAN FACTORS
ORGANIZATIONAL FACTORS
TOD
AY
1950s 1970s 1990s 2010s
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Safety Orientation 1.
Reactive Past oriented
Proactive Present oriented
Predictive Future oriented
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Safety Orientation 2.
Reactive method
The reactive method responds to the
events that already happened, such as
incidents and accidents
Proactive method
The proactive method looks actively for the
identification ofsafety risks
through the analysis of the organization’s
activities.
Predictive method
The predictivemethod captures
systemperformance as
it happens in real-time
normal operations
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Safety Orientation 3.
• Proactive safety is seeing and preventing an event before it happens.
• Reactive management is waiting for the accident to happen, then make corrections
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Safety Management – Levels of intervention
Predictive Proactive Reactive
Highly efficient Very efficient Efficient
Safety management levels
Reactive
Desirable managementlevel
Inefficient
SafetySurveysAudits
FDM
MOR Accidentand occurrence
reports
HighMiddle
Low
Threats
Hazard IDSPI’s real time
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Past and current safety culture
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Can’t drive by just looking at the rear view mirror……
We need to develop a new safety culture
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The safety culture ladder
PROACTIVESafety leadership and values
drive continuous improvement
Incr
easi
ngly
Info
rmed
Incr
easi
ng Tru
st a
nd A
ccou
ntab
ility
PREDICTIVE SMS is how we do business
round here
PATHOLOGICALWho cares as long as
we're not caught
REACTIVESafety is important, we do a lotevery time we have an accident
CALCULATIVEWe have systems in place to
manage all hazards
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How to do it ?
• Start with collecting data• Design SPI’s• Identify hazards
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DATA
• Obtaining a global picture of your organization’s data is a necessity
• Understanding data correlations• Know what you know (or don’t know)• Balance cost vs. possible system
output
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Sources of data
Reports FDM Line checks
Aircraft technical
data
Training/checking
Surveys Audits Inspections
SPI’s
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Purpose of SPI’s
• Primarily:“Support of and control in the risk management process.”
• But also:“Support the relation with over-sight authorities.”
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The SPI’s
• The SPI will tell you where action is needed, however not what action.
• The SPI is not a measure of a safety level as such. Sometimes the SPI will be used as early possible warnings and will require an investigation to analyze the relevance of the warning.
• “SPI’s indicate how the management approach safety.”
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A spectrum of SPI’s
• A spectrum of reactive, proactive and predictive indicators should be used.
• A useful SPI should be:- Valid; measure what we want to measure- Reliable; not dependent on individuals- Sensitive; respond on changes- Representative; cover all aspects- Resistant to bias; not be possible to manipulate- Cost-effective; not cost more than it gives
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Real time safety performance• The Vision Monitor Tool:
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A challenge to be faced by all airlines:• What is the future role of a SMS in an
industry that continues to evolve? – It needs to be a shift from reactive to
proactive orientation – A change from top down to bottom up
participation, with the emphasis on sharing knowledge within a learning organization/culture.
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Questions ?